新华财经北京8月11日电（王菁）债市周一（8月11日）全线回调，税收调整扰动逐渐降温过后，市场开 始收益率成本适度回升预期，国债期货集体收跌，超长端走弱态势更显著，银行间现券收益率普遍回升 2BPs左右；公开市场单日净回笼4328亿元，资金利率走势小幅分化。 机构认为，8月为政府债净供给大月，流动性对冲正当其时，而税收调整之后明显利空新券定价，保障 发行成本的重要性更加凸显，因此后续或有货币配合的支持。关注8月央行是否恢复买债，或已具备一 定条件。 【行情跟踪】 银行间主要利率债收益率午后升幅扩大，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行3.1BPs报 1.9520%，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行3.2BPs报1.8220%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上 行2.65BPs报1.7175%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.67%，报470.91点，成交金额818.93亿元。海泰转债、欧通转债、荣泰转债、 塞力转债、大元转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、15.21%、15.04%、12.46%、12.35%。信测转债、中装 转2、高测转债、松霖转债、利扬转债跌幅居前，分别跌9.27%、4. ...

#报告 摩根士丹利前瞻美国7月CPI数据：关税影响、新车价格与机票价格细节值得关注。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months [2][4] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI fell by 3.6%, but macroeconomic policies and industry upgrades are contributing to positive price changes in some sectors [4][5] - The ongoing expansion of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting policies are expected to support price stability and gradual recovery in the second half of the year [5][6]

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) increased by 0.81% as of August 11, 2025, with notable gains from stocks such as Xinzhou Bang (300037) up 12.44% and Defang Nano (300769) up 12.41% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) saw a trading volume of 39.01 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 27.89%, indicating active market participation [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 showed a year-on-year change of 0.0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% [1] Group 2 - Bank of China Securities predicts that the decline in PPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to narrow in the second half of the year due to improved supply-demand relationships in some industries and ongoing macroeconomic policies [2] - The A500 ETF fund closely tracks the A500 index, which includes 500 securities selected based on market capitalization and liquidity to represent the overall performance of major listed companies across various industries [2] Group 3 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 19.83% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750) [3] - The A500 ETF fund has several related index funds and linkages, indicating a diverse investment structure [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In July, the year-on-year CPI remained flat, and the month-on-month decline of PPI narrowed. The CPI showed characteristics such as service consumption offsetting the decline in food prices, lagging energy transmission, and weak recovery of industrial products. The PPI presented different trends in traditional and new industries, with policy support having varying effects. Attention should be paid to risks such as the impact of weak real - estate investment on building materials demand and global trade frictions on high - tech product prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 6 months CPI and PPI Situation - **PPI**: In July 2025, the year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6% (the same as in June), and the month - on - month decline narrowed to - 0.2% (from - 0.4% in June). The cumulative PPI from January to July decreased by 2.9%. Energy and raw material supply - demand pressure eased marginally, export - dependent industries were under pressure, international input pressure was differentiated, the resilience of high - tech manufacturing weakened, consumer and equipment manufacturing demand was released, and the pressure on consumer goods prices increased [7]. - **CPI**: In July 2025, the year - on - year CPI was flat (compared to + 0.1% in June), and the month - on - month increase was 0.4% (compared to - 0.1% in June), ending the consecutive decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Food prices dragged down the CPI, energy and industrial product prices were differentiated, and service consumption strongly supported the CPI [21]. Appendix: July 2025 CPI and PPI Data - **CPI**: In July 2025, the year - on - year CPI was flat, with urban areas remaining the same and rural areas decreasing by 0.3%. Food prices decreased by 1.6%, non - food prices increased by 0.3%, consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. The month - on - month CPI increased by 0.4% [35]. - **PPI**: In July 2025, the month - on - month decline of the industrial producer price index narrowed. The month - on - month industrial producer output price decreased by 0.2%, and the month - on - month industrial producer purchase price decreased by 0.3%. The year - on - year industrial producer output price decreased by 3.6%, and the year - on - year industrial producer purchase price decreased by 4.5%. From January to July, the average industrial producer output price decreased by 2.9% compared to the previous year, and the industrial producer purchase price decreased by 3.2% [37]. National Bureau of Statistics' Chief Statistician's Interpretation - **CPI**: The month - on - month increase in CPI was slightly higher than the seasonal level, and the year - on - year core CPI continued to rise. The year - on - year CPI was flat mainly due to low food prices [42]. - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed, and the year - on - year decline was the same as last month. Seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties affected some industries' prices, while the optimization of the domestic market competition order drove the narrowing of price declines in related industries. Some industries' prices showed positive changes due to industrial transformation and upgrading and the release of domestic demand potential [45].

每经AI快讯，中金指出，7月在"反内卷"政策发力下，重点行业控量提价推动PPI环比跌幅收窄 至-0.2%，加之换新资金下达、网促扰动消退、金价上涨，CPI工业消费品价格改善，并推动核心CPI同 比连续第三个月回升。但本轮供给侧产能治理相较于2016年更加市场化、法治化，对物价的提振效果更 柔和。PPI同比跌幅仍在两年低位的-3.6%，CPI同比由涨转平。向前看，翘尾因素的拖累消退或带动8月 后PPI同比、四季度CPI同比改善，但若想持续有效推动通胀回归历史中枢，仍需政策加力，且扩内需更 为关键。 ...

今日头条 特别关注 美国债务突破37万亿美元 8月10日，美国国债总额首次突破37万亿美元，创历史新高。自从7月4日特朗普签署《大而美法案》提 高债务上限后，短短37天内债务激增7800亿美元，相当于日均增长220亿美元（每秒5.5万美元）。 1 纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大会第一次综合演练圆满结束 8月9日夜间至8月10日凌晨，北京天安门地区举行了纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80 周年大会第一次综合演练，约2.2万人参加演练及现场保障工作。据介绍，第一次综合演练包括纪念大 会仪式等内容，重点磨合了纪念大会全流程各要素的内部衔接，全面检验了各方组织保障和指挥运行工 作，演练组织有序，达到预期目标。 新闻速递 1 7月CPI环比上涨0.4% 2 最高法：规制"高利贷""砍头息"等违法行为 近日，最高人民法院发布《关于贯彻落实〈中华人民共和国民营经济促进法〉的指导意见》。《指导意 见》明确提出，规制"高利贷"、"砍头息"等违法行为，同时还规范了金融机构放贷行为，并鼓励创新融 资担保模式，为民营经济发展注入法治动能。 3 证监会开出1.6亿元罚单 近日，证监会发布信息显示，*S ...

（文章来源：深圳商报） ...

Core Insights - The expansion of domestic demand policies is showing positive effects, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a 0.1% decline in June [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline is narrowing compared to June, marking the first month of reduced decline since March [1][4] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% [2][3] - Key contributors to the service price increase included airfare (up 17.9%), tourism (up 9.1%), hotel accommodation (up 6.9%), and vehicle rental (up 4.4%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, indicating a continuous upward trend [2][5] PPI Analysis - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment, affecting prices in certain industries [4][6] - The construction sector faced demand slowdowns due to seasonal weather conditions, while the electricity sector saw reduced demand for coal due to increased hydropower generation [4] - The competitive market environment is improving, with significant reductions in price declines for coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium battery industries [4][6] Industry Trends - The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, along with the rapid growth of emerging industries, are contributing to a year-on-year price recovery in related sectors [5][6] - The implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives is driving healthy development in the consumer market, leading to price increases in sectors such as arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional foods [6][7]

Group 1 - The overall price operation is stabilizing, with macro policies expected to continue supporting domestic demand recovery and price stabilization [2] - Seasonal factors have led to price declines in certain industries, such as a 1.5% decrease in coal mining and washing prices, and a 0.9% decrease in electricity and heat production prices [1] - Experts predict that the "anti-involution" measures will lead to higher industrial product prices in August compared to July, with a significant year-on-year base effect [2] Group 2 - New policies aimed at supporting fertility, free preschool education, and personal consumption loan interest subsidies are expected to effectively stimulate domestic demand and drive prices back to reasonable levels [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics anticipates that consumption demand will be boosted by ongoing policies, leading to a rebound in consumer goods prices [2] - The impact of tailing factors on CPI and PPI is expected to weaken, resulting in a moderate price recovery trend [2]