Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, up from 0.6% in the previous month[2] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI's decline is attributed to weak demand and delayed transmission of raw material prices to related industries[3] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, with domestic raw material prices contributing approximately 0.18 percentage points to this decline[5] - The increase in green electricity has led to a 0.9% month-on-month drop in electricity supply PPI[3] Group 3: CPI Insights - The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with rental prices rising by 0.1%, lower than the 0.25% increase seen in the same period from 2015 to 2019[4] - Durable goods prices improved, with transportation prices down 0.4%, better than the average decline of 0.6% over the past three years[4] - Medical service prices have increased for three consecutive months by 0.3%, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend[4] Group 4: Inventory and PPI Relationship - Actual inventory growth has risen from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[6] - The mining and upstream manufacturing sectors have seen significant declines in actual inventory growth, impacting PPI positively when inventory levels drop[6] - In 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[7]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月10日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250710 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.CPI同比转正，PPI仍待"反内卷"发力——国内观察：2025年6月通胀数据 ➢ 2.行业供需弱平衡，关注AI与国产化机会—电子行业2025年中期投资策略 ➢ 1.国家发改委：今年经济体量有望达到140万亿元左右 ➢ 2.市场监管总局召开企业公平竞争座谈会 ➢ 3.国办印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支持力度的通知》 | 1. 重点推荐 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation data for June, highlighting the changes in CPI and PPI, and their implications for the economy, particularly in terms of GDP growth and price pressures across various sectors [3][14][25]. Group 1: June Price Data Summary - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, indicating a slight improvement in inflation after four months of negative values [3][18]. - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is a larger decline than the previous month's 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [3][25]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for the second quarter is estimated to be around 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in the first quarter [3][16]. Group 2: CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was driven by a narrowing decline in food and energy prices, with food prices improving from -0.4% to -0.3% and energy prices from -6.1% to -5.1% [18][19]. - The rental market saw a seasonal increase in demand, with rents rising by 0.1%, which is lower than the average increase of 0.25% during the same period from 2015 to 2019 [4][19]. - Medical service prices have risen for three consecutive months, indicating potential ongoing inflationary pressures in healthcare [4][27]. Group 3: PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was influenced by seasonal price decreases in domestic raw materials and increased green energy supply, which reduced energy prices [5][26]. - Specific sectors such as coal and electricity production experienced significant price drops, contributing to the overall PPI decline [5][26]. - The article notes that industries with high export ratios are facing price pressures due to a slowdown in global trade, impacting PPI negatively [5][27]. Group 4: Inventory Perspective on PPI - The actual inventory levels in various industries are crucial for understanding PPI trends, with high inventory levels typically exerting downward pressure on prices [6][9]. - As of May, the actual inventory growth rate in the mining and manufacturing sectors has decreased, which historically correlates with a potential upturn in PPI [6][9]. - The current inventory pressure is slightly higher than last year but significantly lower than in the first half of 2015, indicating a more favorable pricing environment for some sectors [7][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In June 2025, CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Gold prices and oil prices affected inflation, with gold contributing to the rise of core CPI but not being the main factor, and the increase in oil prices being offset by the off - season of domestic production and the weakening of the "rush - export" effect on PPI [6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Two Core Concerns about Prices Amid Gold and Oil Price Fluctuations (1) Is the Recovery of Core CPI Driven by Gold Prices or the Recovery of the Demand Side? - Core CPI can be split into services, core consumer goods (excluding gold), and gold. In the first half of 2025, core CPI increased by 0.5% cumulatively month - on - month, with gold contributing 0.13%, services contributing 0.17%, and other core consumer goods contributing 0.2%. Gold boosted core CPI but was not the main factor. The core consumer goods excluding gold were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, and a new round of consumption stimulus policies may be introduced [12]. (2) Why Did PPI Decrease Year - on - Year in June Despite the Sharp Increase in Oil Prices? - In June, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained at - 0.4%. Although the 9% increase in crude oil prices pulled PPI up by about 0.3 percentage points, the off - season of domestic production and the weakening of the "rush - export" effect offset this impact. In the off - season of domestic production, industries such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non - metallic mineral products, coal - related industries, and power and heat production and supply affected PPI to decline by about 0.33 percentage points. After the weakening of the "rush - export" effect, the prices of some export - oriented industries continued to fall [16]. II. June CPI: Food Performed Better than Seasonal Trends, and Oil and Gold Prices Supported the Month - on - Month Recovery, with the Year - on - Year Increase Reaching 0.1% (1) Food Items - The month - on - month decline of the CPI food item in June fell back to around - 0.4%, better than the seasonal trend, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.09 percentage points. Pork prices decreased by 1.2% due to oversupply. Fresh food prices were better than the seasonal trend, with freshwater fish and fresh vegetables rising by 4.3% and 0.7% respectively, while eggs and fresh fruits dragged down the CPI [20]. (2) Non - food Items - The month - on - month of the CPI non - food item recovered to around 0. Oil prices rebounded, with gasoline prices rising by 0.4%. Core consumer goods were mainly dragged down by clothing and automobiles, while gold prices were the main supporting factor, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.01 percentage points. Tourism was weaker than the seasonal trend, and rent increased during the graduation season, with little change in overall service prices [21][27][30]. III. June PPI: The Off - season of Domestic Production and the Drag of Some Export Industries Led to a Year - on - Year Decline to - 3.6% (1) Overall - The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, and consumer goods also weakened. Production materials prices decreased by 0.6%, and consumer goods prices turned negative [35]. (2) By Industry - In June 2025, the number of industries with falling prices among industrial producers remained around two - thirds. The main supporting factor was the crude oil industry chain. The drag factors included raw material manufacturing industries such as building materials, energy prices of coal and electricity, and export - related industries such as electronic equipment, electrical machinery, and textiles [37][41][43].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing four months of negative growth[2] - The month-on-month CPI decline narrowed from -0.2% in May to -0.1% in June, slightly above the average decline of -0.18% from 2020 to 2024[2] - Core CPI rose to 0.7%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to May, marking four consecutive months of increasing decline[2] - Month-on-month, the PPI remained at -0.4%, indicating persistent downward pressure on industrial prices[2] - Factors contributing to PPI decline include abundant supply in domestic raw material manufacturing, seasonal price decreases, and reduced demand for thermal coal due to increased green energy[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite a slight rebound in CPI, consumer demand remains weak, and PPI continues to face downward pressure due to supply-demand imbalances and intensified competition among enterprises[3] - The central government's recent emphasis on regulating low-price competition may help improve supply-demand structures and provide some support for future price stability[3] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies, unexpected interest rate changes, and concentrated credit events that could impact CPI and PPI forecasts[4]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, ending four consecutive months of negative growth, primarily due to the recovery in industrial product prices and the gradual effects of consumption promotion policies [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating continued weakness in domestic investment and export demand [1][3] - Positive changes were observed in previously competitive industries such as automotive and photovoltaic sectors, where prices began to stabilize and recover [1][4] Group 2 - The transition of CPI from negative to positive is attributed to reduced international input pressure and the effectiveness of domestic consumption promotion policies, alongside base effect considerations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high, indicating an increasing domestic demand influence on prices [3] - Despite the positive CPI movement, economists suggest that the core CPI remains in a low inflation environment, and significant changes in this trend are unlikely in the short term [3] Group 3 - The PPI saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6%, driven by seasonal price declines in certain raw material manufacturing sectors and increased green energy supply [3] - The automotive manufacturing sector, including both traditional and new energy vehicles, experienced a month-on-month price increase, with a notable narrowing of year-on-year price declines [4] - The Chinese government has introduced measures to support employment, indicating a focus on job stability alongside price monitoring, which includes increased unemployment insurance and expanded loan support for small and medium enterprises [4]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline over the previous four months [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily influenced by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [1] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months, indicating stronger underlying inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, while some industry prices showed signs of stabilization [2] - The decline in PPI was attributed to seasonal decreases in domestic raw material manufacturing prices and a drop in energy prices due to increased green electricity [2] - Prices for automobiles, photovoltaics, and durable consumer goods experienced a narrowing year-on-year decline, supported by policies aimed at promoting consumption [2]

2025 年 07 月 10 日 铅：预期支撑 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17175 | 0.09% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2044 | 0.32% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 33005 | -2644 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5358 | 1103 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 52261 | 644 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 149090 | -579 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -55 | -15 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -23.04 | 2.27 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -55 | 0 | 进口升贴水（美 | 105 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - In June, the year-on-year CPI turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month consecutive decline. The core CPI year-on-year increase of 0.7% reached a 14-month high. The CPI as a whole presented the characteristics of "energy drag, food differentiation, and dual drivers of industrial products and services". The risks of pork overcapacity and the transmission of PPI industrial deflation to the consumer side need to be vigilant. [3] - In June, the year-on-year decline of PPI widened to 3.6%, and the month-on-month decline was 0.4%. The PPI presented the characteristics of "deepening drag from weak domestic demand, intensified differentiation between old and new driving forces, and effective policy support". Attention should be paid to the marginal improvement effects of high-tech production capacity release and infrastructure investment on raw material demand. [3] Summary According to the Directory 6-month CPI Recovery and PPI Pressure PPI - The year-on-year decline of PPI widened. In June 2025, PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (compared to -3.3% in May), and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month. The purchase price decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. The cumulative PPI decline in the first half of the year was 2.8%. [7] - The supply and demand of energy and raw materials became more relaxed. The prices of coal mining and washing, coal processing, and power and heat supply industries decreased. The prices of black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products industries decreased, with the month-on-month decline widening. [7] - Export-dependent industries were under pressure. The prices of export-related industries such as computer and communication equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery manufacturing, and textile industries declined. [7] - The international input pressure was adjusted. Although the domestic gasoline price turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month due to the rebound of international oil prices in June, there was still lagging pressure in the energy and chemical industry chain. The price of gold jewelry increased year-on-year, partially offsetting the downward pressure on energy. [7] - Some areas showed positive marginal changes. High-tech manufacturing industries showed enhanced resilience, and the demand for consumption and equipment manufacturing was released. The price of means of subsistence stabilized. [8] - The PPI data in June highlighted three characteristics: weakening of domestic demand seasonally, deepening differentiation between old and new driving forces, and initial effectiveness of policy transmission. [9][17] - In the future, attention should be paid to the disturbances of external geopolitics to the supply chains of crude oil and non-ferrous metals, the progress of internal high-tech industry production capacity release, and the pulling effect of infrastructure investment on raw material demand. [10] CPI - The CPI turned from a decline to an increase. In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year (compared to -0.1% in May), ending a four-month consecutive decline. The core CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. [21] - The decline of food prices narrowed but still dragged down the CPI. The prices of fruits and aquatic products increased, while the prices of pork and eggs decreased. [21] - The drag of energy weakened, and the price turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month. The price of gasoline increased month-on-month, driving the energy price to turn from a decline to an increase. [21] - The service price increased steadily, and the policy effect was prominent. The service price increased by 0.5% in June. Affected by the "trade-in" policy, the prices of cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, household textiles, and household appliances increased. The price decline of automobiles narrowed. [23] - The CPI in June highlighted the following characteristics: the turning of the CPI to an increase marked the emergence of a short-term inflection point, but the recovery foundation was still unstable. The core CPI continued to rise, the drag of industrial products weakened, and the resilience of service consumption was strengthened. Attention should be paid to the risks that the continuous weakness of food prices may suppress the recovery of rural consumption, and the lagging effect of the transmission to CPI under the pressure of industrial demand. [23] Appendix: CPI and PPI Data for June 2025 - In June 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month. The prices of food and consumer goods decreased, while the prices of non-food and services increased. [36] - In June, the prices of food and tobacco increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.3% month-on-month. Other seven major categories of prices showed six increases and one decrease year-on-year and three increases, two stabilizations, and two decreases month-on-month. [37][38] - In June 2025, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. [38] - In June, among the ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of means of production and means of subsistence decreased. Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of most categories decreased, while the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased. [40][41] National Bureau of Statistics Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan's Interpretation of June 2025 CPI and PPI Data - The CPI increased year-on-year after a decline, and the core CPI continued to rise. The increase of CPI year-on-year was mainly affected by the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The decline of food prices narrowed slightly, and the service price increased steadily. The core CPI reached a new high in nearly 14 months. The CPI decreased month-on-month, with the decline narrowing. The decline of food prices was less than the seasonal level, the price of industrial consumer goods turned from a decline to an increase, and the service price increased steadily. [43][44][45] - The month-on-month decline of PPI was the same as last month, and the prices of some industries showed a trend of stabilization and recovery. The reasons for the decline of PPI month-on-month included the seasonal decline of domestic raw material manufacturing prices, the decline of energy prices driven by the increase of green electricity, and the pressure on the prices of some export-oriented industries. With the implementation of various macro policies, the prices of some industries showed a trend of stabilization and recovery due to the promotion of the construction of a unified national market, the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, and the accumulation of new driving forces. [46][47][48]

Macro and Strategy Research - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from decline to increase year-on-year, with a smaller month-on-month decline. Key features include a limited drop in food prices due to high temperatures and increased rainfall, a rise in energy-related CPI driven by international oil price increases, and a notable rise in some industrial consumer goods prices, such as platinum jewelry and home appliances due to pre-"618" promotional activities [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw an expanded year-on-year decline in June 2025, with month-on-month performance remaining weak. This is attributed to seasonal price declines in domestic raw materials, increased green energy leading to lower coal prices, and pressure on prices in export-heavy industries due to slowing global trade growth [3][4] Financial Engineering Research - During the week of July 2 to July 8, 2025, major A-share indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.54%. The margin trading balance reached 1,859.01 billion yuan, an increase of 10.32 billion yuan from the previous week, with a notable rise in financing balances [5][6] - The sectors with the highest net buying in margin trading included power equipment, computers, and public utilities, while banking, steel, and construction decoration sectors saw less net buying [6] Industry Research - In June 2025, the average working hours for major engineering machinery products was 77.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11%. However, sales of excavators and loaders increased by 13.3% and 11.3% year-on-year, respectively [8][9] - A recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam involves a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, which is expected to influence the export chain dynamics [9][10] - The machinery equipment industry maintained a "positive" rating, with recommendations to "overweight" stocks such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and China CNR Corporation [10]