Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, slightly below the expected 3.4%, and down from 3.7% in May, indicating a cooling inflation trend [1][2] - Energy price increases have slowed, contributing to the decline in the core CPI, while the core-core CPI, which excludes energy prices, rose by 3.4%, the fastest growth since January of the previous year [1][2] - The latest inflation data may prompt the Bank of Japan to continue its interest rate hike path, with expectations that the central bank will maintain the benchmark interest rate at its next policy meeting on July 31 [2][3] Group 2 - The rising prices of rice, which have doubled year-on-year, have drawn national attention and forced the government to take unprecedented measures, including utilizing emergency food reserves [2] - The increase in service prices, which rose by 1.5% year-on-year in June, indicates a broader inflationary trend, with Japan's inflation rate exceeding that of other G7 countries [3] - The persistent inflation in Japan is attributed to changing public expectations regarding price increases, breaking a long-standing deflationary pattern, and companies are more willing to pass on costs to consumers [3]

美联储的利率决断：在通胀与增长之间走钢丝 美联储内部对于货币政策的走向也存在明显分歧。6月会议纪要显示，美联储内部对降息的意见并不统一。特朗普任命的两位官员——美联储理事沃勒和鲍 曼均表示支持7月降息；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比，这位曾经的"鸽派"代表，如今也立场动摇，他坦言："最新一轮关税措施可能会引发新的通胀担忧，这可 能迫使美联储在获得更明确的信息前维持观望态度。"他同时警告，反复无常的政策给价格走势带来了不确定性。 美联储面临的挑战远不止经济数据本身。特朗普公开批评美联储利率"至少偏高3个百分点"，并声称利率每高一个百分点，每年就会给美国增加3600亿美元 的再融资成本。更令人担忧的是，特朗普甚至曾暗示可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管他随后否认了这一计划。财政部长贝森特在回应鲍威尔可能辞职的传 闻时表示："若前美联储主席继续留任理事会，对市场而言可能会非常混乱。"这番话被解读为对鲍威尔职位的隐晦施压，美联储的独立性正面临严峻考验。 在总统公开施压、高层人事动荡的阴影下，市场担忧政治因素可能进一步干扰美联储的政策判断。 这出"悬念剧"的导火索是7月17日发布的美联储《褐皮书》（Beige Book）。这份被誉 ...

Market Overview - The recent fluctuations in the precious metals market have been significant, with gold prices experiencing volatility influenced by the U.S. CPI data [1][3] - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since February, while core CPI increased by 2.9% [3][4] - The market is currently facing a "inflation rebound + pressure on gold and silver" scenario, testing investors' risk management capabilities [3] Economic Indicators - The June CPI data showed a structural divergence, with energy prices rising by 0.9% month-on-month, while prices for core items like used cars and airline tickets fell [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy faces a dual challenge of managing delayed inflation pressures from tariffs and preventing economic slowdown risks [3][4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September remain high, with a 62% probability, despite the Fed's current stance on interest rates [4] Investment Strategies - In the current complex market environment, traditional investment strategies are under pressure, particularly for gold, which faces upward pressure on real interest rates despite long-term support from geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [4][6] - Investors are advised to adopt a "barbell strategy," allocating 30% to physical gold for inflation hedging while utilizing platforms like Jinsheng Precious Metals for capturing cross-market opportunities [5][6] - Jinsheng Precious Metals offers advantages such as low trading costs, rapid transaction execution, and robust fund security measures, enhancing the investment experience [5][6] Company Positioning - Jinsheng Precious Metals, as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, leverages three core advantages: cost optimization, rapid trading experience, and fund safety [5][6] - The company emphasizes a low-cost, high-transparency, and strong protection trading ecosystem, aligning with the evolving landscape of precious metal investments [6]

金十数据7月15日讯，日元兑欧元跌至一年低位，原因是市场担心日本国会选举的财政影响。RBC Capital Markets外汇策略师Richard Cochinos在报告中称，最新民调显示，日本执政联盟可能在7月20日 的参议院选举中失去50%的多数席位，可能导致未来减税和增加财政刺激，从而可能损害日本的财政状 况。日本央行也可能面临推迟加息的政治压力。欧元兑日元EUR/JPY今日升至172.73的一年高点。 欧元/日元 日元兑欧元跌至一年低位 ...

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,351.89, with a slight increase of 0.17% from the previous session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The highest price reached today was $3,351.89, while the lowest was $3,340.99, showing a range of fluctuation within the trading session [1] Group 2 - A senior economist warns that inflation momentum is clear, and if US-Japan tariff negotiations succeed, an interest rate hike in October is possible [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year and the next, as companies shift from temporary cost-pass-through strategies to more permanent price transmission mechanisms [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently experiencing a high-level consolidation, with potential risks of a downturn to around $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the May moving average [3] - If gold prices break below the May moving average support, they could drop to the $3,000 level, but the likelihood of this happening is considered low due to multiple expected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [3] - Current indicators suggest a bearish signal, indicating a potential for a pullback, but any decline is expected to find support near the middle moving average, presenting a buying opportunity [3]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan may consider raising at least one inflation forecast in its upcoming policy meeting due to unexpected increases in rice and food prices [1][2] - The central bank is likely to adjust its key price forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% due to stronger food inflation and rising oil prices [1][2] - The yen briefly strengthened against the dollar following the news, while Japanese government bond futures fell [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting on July 31, amid uncertainties from ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations and the upcoming Senate elections [2] - Living costs and rice prices have become critical issues ahead of the elections, with rice prices doubling compared to the previous year, marking the largest increase since 1971 [2] - The central bank believes there is no need for significant adjustments to the overall economic and inflation outlook, maintaining that price trends will align with its sustainable inflation target in the latter half of the three-year outlook period ending March 2028 [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's forecasts for core CPI and core-core CPI for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 are 2.2%, 1.7%, 1.9% and 2.3%, 1.8%, 2% respectively [4] - Officials acknowledge high uncertainty and plan to monitor the impact of US tariffs on upcoming data to determine the timing of future rate hikes [4] - The central bank's president, Ueda Kazuo, indicated that the effects of tariffs have not yet appeared in hard data, while inflation rates remain elevated, reaching a two-year high in May [5]

智通财经7月11日电，日本央行行长表示，关税压力可能会影响到国内的"薪资-通胀循环"，这可能是决 定未来加息时点的关键因素。加息时间可能会被推迟到2026年。 日本央行行长：加息时间可能会被推迟到2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The interest of forex traders in the Japanese yen is declining due to concerns over the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the economy, leading to reduced expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's announcement of higher tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan, is expected to negatively impact Japanese exports and may force the BOJ to lower its economic growth forecast in its quarterly outlook on July 31 [1]. - According to Daiwa Securities, the proposed 25% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods could lead to a cumulative reduction of 1.1% in Japan's real GDP [2]. - The real GDP growth rate for Japan is projected to slow significantly to 0.1%-0.2% in FY2025, down from 0.8% in FY2024, due to the anticipated effects of tariffs [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The BOJ is likely to delay interest rate hikes until it can confirm whether companies will continue to increase wages and capital expenditures [1]. - Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai indicated that the BOJ may hold off on rate hikes at least until March next year to assess the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1]. - The BOJ aims to eventually raise rates to at least 1%, ideally reaching 1.5%, but current tariff issues complicate the justification for such increases [2].

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing a slight decline of 0.02% as of the report [3] - The South Korean KOSPI index increased by 0.29%, reaching 3124.07 points [9] Individual Stock Performance - Sumitomo Pharma saw a significant increase of over 8%, while Omron, Seiko, and Casio rose by more than 5% [5] - Notable declines were observed in companies such as Fujitsu, Nintendo, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [5] - Specific stock performance data includes: - Sumitomo Pharma: 987.0 JPY, up 8.82%, market cap 392.7 billion JPY [6] - Omron: 4048.0 JPY, up 6.86%, market cap 834.9 billion JPY [6] - Seiko: 1180.5 JPY, up 5.54%, market cap 413.4 billion JPY [6] - Casio: 1161.5 JPY, up 5.50%, market cap 276.1 billion JPY [6] - Nissan Motor experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 3% [5] Economic Insights - Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation risks, suggesting that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [7] - New Bank of Japan committee member, Junko Koizumi, hinted at a possible upward adjustment of inflation expectations this month, which could pave the way for another interest rate increase this year [8] Trade and Export Concerns in South Korea - A trade expert in South Korea predicted a significant reduction in exports of major products if the U.S. tariff policy is implemented as planned [9] - Forecasts indicate that exports in the automotive and steel sectors may decline by 7.1% and 7.2%, respectively, from July to December [10] - The expert urged South Korean companies to consider relocating production bases overseas or adjusting export prices to mitigate the impact of high tariffs [10] - There is a call for the South Korean government and industries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market and expand exports to regions such as the EU, ASEAN, and India, while accelerating the transition to high-tech industries [10]

Core Viewpoint - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasizes the need for the Bank of Japan to be cautious about inflation risks and suggests that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Nakaso highlights strong wage growth, the ability of companies to pass on costs, and rising inflation expectations as indicators that price pressures in Japan may be greater than policymakers anticipate [1] - He disagrees with the Bank of Japan officials' assessment that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the downside, asserting that there are upward risks to inflation, particularly due to labor shortages potentially leading to significant wage increases next year [1]