Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a drop of 11.5 million barrels reported by the EIA, bringing total inventories down to 420.9 million barrels, which is approximately 10% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [1][2] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) had previously estimated a decrease of 10.133 million barrels, while market expectations were only for a reduction of 600,000 barrels, indicating a tighter supply situation in the U.S. oil market [1] - Despite the positive inventory data, international oil prices showed mixed trends, with Brent crude falling by 1.19% to $75.54 per barrel, while WTI crude rose by 0.99% to $74.10 per barrel, suggesting that oil prices are influenced by broader macroeconomic signals, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy expectations [1] Group 2 - On the demand side, the average total supply of refined oil in the U.S. over the past four weeks was 20 million barrels per day, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, with gasoline demand at a high of 9 million barrels per day, while middle distillate supply decreased by 4.2% year-on-year [2] - The current oil market is characterized by a "dual driving" situation, where a sharp decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, production adjustments, and stable demand may support oil prices in the medium to short term, while uncertainties in global economic growth, Federal Reserve policy direction, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could suppress price increases [2] - The company advises investors to closely monitor key factors such as crude oil inventory data, refinery capacity utilization changes, OPEC+ movements, and international transportation risks, as these variables will continue to impact the supply-demand dynamics in the oil market and may present trading opportunities [2]

| | | 铁矿 今日盘面震荡。 供应端，全球发运处于旺季，未来存在季末冲量预期，国内到港量阶段下降，根据船期推算未来将出现反 弹，港口库存预计将逐步止降转增，供应压力边际加大。需求端，终端需求进入淡季，钢厂仍有利润，主动减产意愿不强，铁 水产量变化不大，预计短期维持相对高位。宏观层面，国内仍然等待增量政策出台，外部地缘政治风险上升，市场短期不确定 性依然较强。我们预计铁矿走势以震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格震荡上行。铁水小幅回落，整体维持在241，焦炭存在第四轮提降预期，焦化利润有所收缩，焦化日产较年内高位有 所回落，持续性有待观察。焦炭整体库存小幅下降，贸易商采购意愿依旧较低。整体来看，碳元素供应端切较充裕，下游铁水 稳定在241以上，关税依旧对行情产生影响，受原油价格大幅上涨影响，焦煤价格有所反弹。焦炭盘面基本平水，在库存压力 下，焦炭价格一定程度上受到原油带动。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 ...

油价探底回升，SC原油期货站稳550关口，机构分析表示，中长期来看，原油走势将回归基本面定价的 逻辑，宏观层面及原油供需情况仍会对油价形成压力，使油价重心下行。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

EIA周度数据报告 2025-06-19 10:04:12 摘要:原油库存骤降,终端需求略有好转 EIA周良报告点评 主要数据 一览: 截止6月13日，美国商业原油总库存为42094.2万桶，环比减少1147.3万桶，远超预期的减少180万桶，交割地库欣库存减少99.5万桶。战略储备库 存增加23.0万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存增加20.9万桶，不及预期的增加60万桶，馏分油库存增加51.4万桶，超过预期的增加40万桶。 | 单位:干桶、千桶/日 | 6月6日 | 6月13日 | 型化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 432415 | 420942 | -11473 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 23683 | 22688 | -ddc- | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 402059 | 402289 | 230 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 229804 | 230013 | 209 | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 108884 | 109398 | 514 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1643559 | 1637180 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake, regardless of the market conditions [1] - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, characterized by rapid price swings and a "super sweep" phenomenon, which is expected to continue [1][3] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, have not significantly influenced gold prices, which remain under pressure below the 3400 level [3] Group 2 - Current support for gold is precarious at the 3120 level, with potential downward movements targeting 3345-50, 3330, and 3300 if broken [5] - Resistance levels for gold are identified at 3385 and 3400, with a breakout above 3400 necessary for bullish momentum to continue [5] - Silver is expected to face resistance at 37.3, with further levels at 37.7 and 38.2 for short positions, while support is noted at 35.5 and 34.6 [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai gold and silver markets suggest a bearish outlook, with short positions recommended above 9000 for silver and specific resistance levels for gold at 795 and 800 [7] - The crude oil market is also experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical factors, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index shows signs of stabilization after a decline, with potential targets set at the 102 level if recent lows are not breached [12] - The S&P 500 futures are being held in short positions, with expectations of breaking the 5920 level, while caution is advised against unexpected market rallies [9][16]

信期货 60 50 460 40 440 30 420 20 400 -10 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 美国战略石油库存(百万桶) 美国汽油库存(百万桶) 2022 -2023 2022 -2023 2021 2021 2024 2025 2024 2025 700 260 650 250 600 240 550 230 500 450 220 400 210 350 - 200 300 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国柴油库存(百万桶) 美国航煤库存(百万桶) 2022 2022 2021 -2023 2021 -2023 2024 2024 = 2025 ·2025 170 51 160 48 150 45 140 42 130 39 N 120 36 11 ...

宏观 股指 宏观：今日陆家嘴论坛释放重磅金融政策，设立银行间市场交易报告库、数字人 民币国际运营中心等 8 项举措。其中，优化自由贸易账户功能、发展自贸离岸债 等政策直接利好跨境资金流动与外贸企业融资，叠加"先行先试"结构性货币政 策工具创新，为市场注入流动性预期，政策红利对冲外部关税战不确定性，提振 市场风险偏好 市场分析：上证 50 下跌 0.15%、沪深 300 上涨 0.12%、中证 500 下跌 0.09%、中 证 1000 上涨 0.53%。中证 1000 指数期权 1 年期隐含波动率维持在 21.2%，高于 沪深 300（15.6%），反映市场对中小盘股波动性预期较高。 参考观点：中证 500、中证 1000 期货贴水率分别为 0.3%、0.5%，反映短期抛压， 需警惕技术性修复与政策利好共振的持续性。 原油 宏观与地缘：高度关注以伊冲突发展，是近期油价关键影响因素。有消息称伊朗 18 日晚将采取较大军事行动，目前，市场观望氛围，原油波动率大幅增加。 市场分析：基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，同时美库存连续四周下滑，一定 程度上在基本面也支撑油价的上涨。中期看，需要密切关注中东局势特别是伊朗 对 ...

巴克莱：在最坏情况下的更大规模冲突情景中，预计布伦特原油价格将突破每桶100美元。 布伦特原油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays predicts that if Iran's oil exports are halved, Brent crude oil prices could rise to $85 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of reduced Iranian oil exports on global oil prices is significant, indicating a direct correlation between supply constraints and price increases [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. EIA crude oil production for the week ending June 13 is reported at 20.574 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 20.125 million barrels per day [1]