7月2日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价整体持稳，部分金店金价继续上涨。具体来看，老凤祥黄 金今日又涨7元/克，报价1006元/克，成为新的最高价金店。上海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价956元/克，为 最低价金店。今日品牌金店价差50元/克（1006元/克-956元/克），价差再次拉大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年7月2日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 757.30 | 元/克 | | 菜百黄金 | 752.90 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 751.60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 755.00 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 760.50 | 元/克 | 说完首饰黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金盘中一路上行，最高涨至了3257.78美元/盎司，最终收报3338.17美元/盎司，涨幅1.07%。 今日金价暂时震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3338.96美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%。 昨日金价大幅回升，主要是美国参议院通过了特朗普的"大而美"减税与支出法 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the equity fund market, particularly focusing on public equity funds and their issuance trends amid geopolitical risks and market sentiment fluctuations [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Equity Fund Issuance**: The new issuance of equity public funds reached 296.6 billion, marking a 17% increase from the previous period. However, the overall issuance remains low compared to historical levels, with recent weeks showing significant fluctuations [3]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, which have contributed to a low issuance environment for equity funds [4]. - **Northbound Capital Activity**: As of June 22, northbound capital accounted for 12% of total trading volume, showing a slight decline. The trading activity remains at a low level due to cautious attitudes from emerging foreign investors and a rebound in US stocks [5]. - **Two-way Financing Trends**: The balance of margin financing was reported at 1.79 trillion, with a net inflow of 50 billion, indicating a 30% decrease from the previous period. The inflow is primarily concentrated in downstream consumer and upstream raw material support sectors [5]. - **ETF and IPO Dynamics**: The net subscription for existing stock ETFs was negative 28 billion, a significant improvement from negative 85 billion previously. Upcoming IPOs are expected to total 26.5 billion, with a substantial increase in equity financing to 4.3 trillion, largely driven by major banks' capital increases [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Capital Reduction Trends**: The net reduction of industrial capital was 85.75 billion, with significant reductions in the machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors. Conversely, slight increases were noted in food and beverage, petrochemicals, and steel sectors [2][8]. - **Southbound Capital Flow**: Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 290 billion, a decrease from the previous 394 billion. This trend indicates a gradual recovery in market sentiment, influenced by geopolitical developments and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9]. - **Lock-up Expiration Impact**: The market is facing a lock-up expiration value of 1.078 trillion, a 162.85% increase from the previous period, with significant pressure expected from the defense and military sectors [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "Rebound"; soda ash is rated as "Oscillation" [2]. - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Upward"; 2 - year, 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillation"; 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Rebound"; gold and silver are rated as "Correction"; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is rated as "Oscillation" [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Weak Oscillation"; logs are rated as "Strong Oscillation"; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "High - level Oscillation"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Oscillation with a Bearish Bias" [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Rebound" [7]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Rebound"; PX, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See"; PTA and MEG are rated as "Short at High Levels" [9]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The overall supply of iron ore is increasing, demand is relatively low, and port inventories are entering a stocking cycle. Coal and coke prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and high iron - water production. The supply - demand structure of rolled steel has weakened, and glass prices have rebounded at low levels [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation. The stock market shows different trends, and the bond market rebounds slightly. Gold prices may correct in the short term [4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp prices are expected to oscillate weakly, while log prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate at high levels. The soybean market is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pig prices are expected to continue rising, driven by supply - demand changes and market sentiment [7]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely. PX prices follow oil prices, PTA and MEG are suitable for shorting at high levels, and polyester products show different trends [9]. 3. Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recent spot trading is weak, and the basis continues to narrow. Global shipments and arrivals are increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It rebounds in the short term, and attention should be paid to the trend of iron - water production [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Environmental inspections have led to a decline in coking coal supply, and prices have rebounded strongly. Coke prices are under pressure, and inventories are increasing. Attention should be paid to iron - water production and supply - side trends [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, demand has weakened, production has increased, and inventories have started to rise. The overall demand is difficult to reverse seasonally, and prices may find support at the valley - electricity cost level in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The daily melting volume will first decrease and then increase. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventories are at a high level. Prices have rebounded at low levels, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It shows an oscillating trend [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices show different trends. The central bank's policy suggestions and economic data affect the market. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Although the logic driving the price increase has not completely reversed, prices may correct in the short term due to factors such as interest - rate and tariff policies [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stabilizing, costs are decreasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are increasing, to - be - arrived volumes are expected to decrease, and costs are providing support. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. The supply of soybean oil and palm oil is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Others**: The soybean market is weak due to favorable weather and high production. Domestic imports are large, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side sentiment is strong, and prices are rising. The average transaction weight is decreasing, and prices are expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand shows a structural recovery, and inventories are in different states. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, supply is increasing, and prices follow oil prices [9]. - **PTA**: Costs are oscillating after a decline, and the supply - demand situation is weakening in the medium term. Prices follow costs in the short term [9]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are low, and the supply - demand situation is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. Prices are affected by the general market atmosphere [9]. - **PR**: Driven by cost factors, the market may adjust with a bullish bias [9]. - **PF**: Terminal performance is average, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [9].

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Outlook - The World Trade Organization has revised the global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to -0.2%, indicating a significant downturn in trade activity [1] - The International Monetary Fund has also lowered its global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, highlighting rising stagflation risks [1] - Central bank policies are diverging, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its stance while three European central banks have opted for interest rate cuts to combat recession pressures, increasing market uncertainty [1] Group 2: Investment Platform Requirements - Investors need trading platforms that offer both flexibility and security to navigate the complexities of the financial market [3] - An effective trading platform should leverage technological innovation and strict compliance to create a risk "moat" for investors [3] Group 3: AC Capital Markets (ACCM) Offerings - ACCM provides a comprehensive asset coverage and a two-way trading mechanism to offer risk diversification and enhanced returns amid market volatility [4] - The platform includes a diverse range of products such as forex, precious metals, indices, and commodities, allowing investors to utilize leverage up to 1:800 and trade with competitive spreads [4] - ACCM supports both long and short trading strategies, enabling profit opportunities regardless of market direction [4] Group 4: Technological Advancements in Trading - ACCM enhances trading experiences through cutting-edge financial technology, improving decision-making efficiency and investment success rates [6] - The platform features global data centers for low-latency order execution, ensuring rapid response in high-frequency trading environments [6] - ACCM incorporates advanced trading tools like MT5, Autochartist, and Trading Central to assist investors in market predictions and strategy development [6] Group 5: Future Investment Landscape - Despite ongoing global trade challenges, ACCM identifies emerging short-term investment opportunities through product innovation and technological empowerment [8] - The platform aims to become a central hub for wealth management as supply chain regionalization and digital currency systems evolve [8]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq 100 index increased by 1.4% on June 24, 2025, while major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching a new high, indicating strong performance among large tech stocks [1] - According to Zhongyin International, major U.S. indices experienced slight declines this week, with the S&P 500 down by 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 remaining flat compared to the previous week [1] - The Nasdaq 100 index has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.5, with a Z-Score of 0.8, suggesting that its valuation is above historical averages, reflecting a resilient performance in the tech sector despite rising market risk aversion [1] Group 2 - The MSCI Global Index fell by 0.4%, and the MSCI Developed Markets (excluding the U.S.) index decreased by 1.4%, while the Nasdaq 100's flat performance outperformed most market indices [1] - The Nasdaq ETF tracks the total return index of the Nasdaq 100, which includes the performance of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq, accounting for dividend reinvestment [1] - The index's constituent stocks are primarily concentrated in technology, healthcare, and consumer services sectors, providing a comprehensive reflection of the overall market performance of large growth-oriented companies in the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - London gold prices maintained a volatile trend on June 26, opening at $3,332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,339.76, and a low of $3,328.99, closing at $3,335.89 with a slight increase of 0.12% [1] Group 2 - Despite a recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical situation remains fragile, with President Trump indicating potential discussions regarding a nuclear agreement with Iran, while expressing skepticism about its necessity [2] - Trump's comments have reignited market concerns over the Middle East, following a period of reduced tensions that had previously led to significant declines in international oil and gold prices [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, gold prices are currently fluctuating near a critical support level of $3,300 per ounce, with previous declines forming a long lower shadow, indicating some bullish resistance at this level [3] - If gold prices stabilize above $3,300 and break through short-term moving average resistance, a rebound may occur; conversely, a drop below this support could lead to further declines, with the next key support level at $3,250 per ounce [3]

特朗普宣布以色列与伊朗达成全面停火协议后，市场避险情绪显著降温，黄金价格早盘一度暴跌超30美 元。尽管停火协议稳定性存疑，但风险偏好回升主导市场走势，股市反弹、油价下跌，避险资产需求下 降。北京时间22:00鲍威尔将发表半年度货币政策证词，市场关注其关于7月降息时机的表态。当前美联 储内部对降息分歧加剧，若鲍威尔释放年内降息次数有限信号，可能强化美元反弹、压制金价；反之若 立场偏鸽，或缓解金价下行压力。短期来看，地缘风险消退与风险偏好升温是金价下跌主因，但美元走 弱及美联储潜在鸽派倾向仍提供支撑。中长期而言，全球经济不确定性、地缘政治风险及美联储宽松政 策预期仍构成黄金结构性支撑。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3287-3292区域做多，止损在3280，目标3320-3340 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析 与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操 作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 从技术面来看，黄金日线级别均线系统呈现交织状态，多空力量相对均衡。当前上方关键阻力位于3350 附近，该位置是重要心理关口 ...

Gold Market - Gold prices dropped sharply as the market's risk aversion decreased following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, leading to increased selling pressure [1] - The ceasefire has reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, resulting in a significant decline in global inflation risks and a shift in investor preference towards higher-yielding assets like stocks [1] - Market sentiment has improved, and it is likely that funds will continue to flow out of gold, making it less attractive in the near term [1] - Technical analysis indicates a high probability of a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with potential short-term support at the long-term moving average [1] Oil Market - Oil prices reversed their upward trend due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which had previously threatened oil transportation [2] - The likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from over 50% to 4% as the conflict subsides, removing the rationale for rising oil prices [2] - Despite the reduction in geopolitical risks, the fundamental outlook for oil remains weak due to oversupply, and OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, limiting price rebounds [2] - Technical indicators suggest a high probability of a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with potential short-term resistance at $67.20 [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown signs of consolidation with small fluctuations, supported by long-term moving averages [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a clear upward shift in price action, suggesting a potential for continued volatility around the support level of $4.80 [3] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is at a high price level with a bullish moving average arrangement, indicating a strong potential for continuation of the upward trend [4] - However, the index may face a pullback after failing to challenge previous highs, with short-term support around 38,130 [4]

全球股市沸腾！ 当地时间6月24日，美国总统特朗普称，以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生效，警告各方不要违反协议。此前，伊 朗国家电视台宣布，伊朗对以色列停火。随后，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡确认，以色列同意停火。 在停火协议生效的消息传开后，欧美股市大幅上涨，亚太市场、中东地区主要股指也集体走强。其中，巴基斯 坦KSE-30指数一度涨超5%，盘中暂停交易。截至记者发稿时，巴基斯坦股市已恢复交易，KSE-30指数涨幅 扩大至5.57%，KSE-100指数涨5.2%。 不过，停火协议生效后，以色列方面称，伊朗再次发射了导弹。据央视新闻报道，当地时间24日，以色列国防 军称，已侦测到伊朗再次发射弹道导弹。以色列的防空系统正在工作，提醒公众进入掩体躲避，直至另行通 知。预计未来几分钟内，以色列北部地区将拉响警报。以色列方面表示，至少有一枚弹道导弹从伊朗向以色列 发射，该导弹很可能已被拦截。目前尚无人员伤亡报告。 不过，伊朗官方媒体否认停火实施后伊朗向以色列 发射导弹。 当地时间24日，以色列国防部长卡茨表示，他已指示以色列国防军"对伊朗违反停火协议的行为作出有力回 应，对德黑兰市中心的目标进行猛烈打击"。 来看详细报道！ 集体上 ...

原油方面，上的多快，跌的就有多狠，上个交易日早盘高开高走冲击到78一线，然后大幅的回落，晚间二次冲高到75附近承压大幅回 落，早盘更是一波杀跌到了64.3附近，这样的跌幅基本是回吐了战乱以后的全部涨幅，回到了伊朗以色列开火前的位置，目前的关注 64附近前期箱体的上方平台支撑，上方关注71附近压力情况，操作上短期继续看反复的宽幅整理了。 黄金低多接连兑现，大跌正是进场的机会！ 前一秒还打得如火如荼，说停火就停火，美国刚直接介入战局，就结束了，只能说特朗普是天生的演员，给市场演了一出好戏，因为 特朗普最不愿意看到的就是高油价，因为会加剧通胀，然后美联储降息就会更加慢，这跟他自己的计划有出入，所以就有了这一出好 戏，市场避险情绪有所下降，黄金在昨天探底回升冲高到3393一线之后没能再破高点开始震荡回落，早间在市场确认伊朗以色列停火 之后也是惯性走出一波快速探底到3333附近企稳反抽，这个位置也是前期多次顶底转换的关键支撑带，随着美联储释放降息的信号， 目前避险情绪回归正常之后后续依旧看好黄金探底之后继续走高了，上方关注3365附近日内关键压力情况。 6/24黄金原油参考思路 黄金回踩在3344/46附近多，防守33 ...