2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

Group 1 - The banking sector has shown positive performance, with the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) rising by 0.10% and several constituent stocks experiencing significant gains, such as Chongqing Bank (601963) up by 7.21% and Jiangsu Jinzu (600901) up by 5.57% [1] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has seen a growth in scale of 979.54 million yuan this month, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on April 25, focusing on economic themes and indicating a continuation of policy support [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities noted that large banks are advancing their capital increase plans, and the mid-term dividend strategy is still in progress, indicating sustained long-term investment value in the banking sector [2] - The low interest rate environment continues to highlight the stability of bank earnings and dividends, with high dividend yield banks showing absolute returns [2] - The positive economic trend remains unchanged, with monetary and fiscal policies being firmly implemented since October 2024, which is expected to stabilize bank asset quality and support credit growth [2] Group 3 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index accounted for 15.22% of the index, with companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) among the top [3] - The performance of individual stocks within the index varies, with some stocks like Nanjing Steel (600282) showing a gain of 2.07%, while others like Hengyuan Coal Power (600971) saw a decline of 2.64% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prominence of dividend strategies within pension fund Y shares, indicating a shift towards stable returns and low volatility in investment preferences [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of the end of Q1, several dividend-focused equity index funds have emerged as top performers in the personal pension investment directory, showcasing significant capital attraction [2][4]. - The first batch of 85 equity index funds included in the personal pension investment product directory reflects a growing interest in dividend assets, which are becoming a key component of long-term pension fund allocations [3][5]. Group 2: Performance of Dividend Products - The Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF Link Y leads the pack with over 120 million yuan in net assets, demonstrating the appeal of dividend strategies for long-term pension allocations [4]. - Other dividend strategy funds, such as Tianhong CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Link Y and E Fund CSI Dividend ETF Link Y, have also seen substantial inflows, with management scales exceeding 40 million yuan by the end of Q1 [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The increasing demand for dividend assets in personal pension products indicates a shift in investment philosophy from seeking high returns to pursuing stable returns and low volatility [5][6]. - Dividend strategies focus on companies with stable cash flows and reasonable valuations, appealing to conservative investors seeking stability amid market fluctuations [6][7]. Group 4: Market Environment - In a volatile A-share market, dividend funds have gained popularity, becoming a favored category among investors due to their stable dividend characteristics [7]. - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist, making dividend assets with yields around 4% to 5% an attractive alternative for long-term institutional funds [8].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【直播回放】 港股指数基金的品种也越来越丰富。 常见的港股宽基指数，有恒生、H股、港股中小；策略指数，例如港股红利；行业主题指数，例如港股消费、恒生医疗、港股科技、恒生科技等。 这些指数分别有啥特点？影响港股涨跌走势的原因有哪些？ 如何快速查询港股各个指数的估值数据？ 在昨晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0422 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 策略指数丰富了我们投资的选项，满足了很多投资者个性化的需求。 第三类是行业指数。 也就是仅覆盖了某个行业的股票，例如消费、医药、金融等。 最常见的行业指数，是11个一级行业。 每个一级行业，其实都是社会不可或缺的一部分，长期也是跟着社会发展的。 第四类是主题指数。 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 港股常见的四类指数 跟A股类似，港股常见的指数，主要也分为四类。 第一类是 宽基 指数。 通常是按照上市公司的市值规模来选股的，会包含各个行业的股票，覆盖范围很"宽"。 第二类是 策略指数 。 通常是在宽基指数的基础上，用了某一种投资策略， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the state-owned enterprise dividend sector amid a stable economic recovery in China, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a GDP of 318,758 billion yuan for Q1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [1] - The establishment of the Chinese version of the stabilization fund is expected to bolster market confidence and accelerate the entry of medium to long-term capital into the A-share market, laying a solid foundation for its long-term stable operation [1] - The performance of the state-owned enterprise dividend index (000824) is driven by the dual themes of state-owned enterprises and dividend strategies, enhancing the effectiveness of the investment strategy [2] Group 2 - The state-owned enterprise dividend ETF (159515) tracks the CSI State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index (000824), which is designed to select high-quality state-owned enterprises with strong profitability and low valuations [2] - As state-owned enterprise reforms deepen, there is potential for further improvement in profitability and operational efficiency, leading to a dual recovery in earnings and valuations [2] - The defensive attributes of the dividend sector are expected to become more prominent due to the concentration of annual and quarterly report disclosures, alongside tariff-related disruptions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between interest rates and valuations, emphasizing that not all declining interest rate environments will lead to valuation increases. It outlines two primary methods for valuation enhancement: through accelerated growth or rising ROE, and through a low interest rate environment [3][23]. Group 1: Valuation Enhancement Methods - Valuation can be enhanced through two methods: one is during the accelerated growth or ROE upturn phase, and the other is in a low interest rate environment [3][23]. - In a low interest rate environment, the valuation is influenced by both the numerator (ROE) and the denominator (interest rates and risk premiums) [4][30]. - The relationship between valuation and ROE is positively correlated across countries, while the relationship between valuation and interest rates varies, showing positive, weak, or negative correlations depending on the country [4][31]. Group 2: Scenarios for Valuation Increase - Valuation increases during a declining interest rate phase are most evident in environments of extreme liquidity, where short-term real interest rates drop significantly [7][42]. - If economic recovery is strong, valuations will rise alongside interest rates due to inflation expectations, as seen in the post-pandemic U.S. [8][47]. - In cases of economic deflation, profit and inflation expectations may lead to further declines in valuations, as observed in Japan in the 1990s and Italy in the 2010s [8][47]. Group 3: Valuation and Interest Rate Dynamics - The average PB valuation low point for developed countries is 0.85 times, corresponding to an average interest rate of 2.46% [9][10]. - The low point of valuations is influenced by fundamentals, while the low point of interest rates is determined by monetary liquidity [9][10]. - Countries with strong fundamentals (e.g., U.S., Japan, Germany, France) tend to see valuation increases in sectors with comparative advantages, such as consumer discretionary, technology, and healthcare [12][47]. Group 4: A-share Market Valuation Potential - As interest rates decline, the extent of valuation increases diminishes, indicating a reduced sensitivity of valuations to interest rates [15][17]. - For example, when interest rates are at 4%, a 20% decline leads to a 16.9% increase in valuation; however, at 1.6%, the same decline results in only a 9.5% increase [15][16]. Group 5: Sector Performance During Interest Rate Changes - In the A-share market, sectors such as utilities and coal saw valuation increases when interest rates fell from 3.2% to 2.2%, while sectors driven by economic conditions, like TMT, performed better when rates fell from 2.2% to 1.6% [17][20]. - The performance of stable assets may not yield excess returns in the later stages of declining interest rates, as market dynamics shift towards growth-oriented assets [17][20].

业绩并不预示其未来表现基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩亦不够成本基金业绩表现的保证由第三方专业机构出具的业绩证明并不能替代基金托管人的业绩附和函投资人应当认真阅读基金合同招募说明书等基金法律文件以详细了解产品风险收益特征根据自身能力审慎决策独立承担投资风险直播中所涉材料及内容除特别著名外 版权归华安基金所有未经允许请勿转发本场直播相关产品风险等级以代销机构风险评级为准请广大投资者根据自身风险适宜情况理性投资风险提示直播中的观点及判断仅基于当前市场根据后市环境变化可能发生调整本直播内容仅供沟通交流之目的不构成任何投资建议基金有风险投资需谨慎基金产品收益具有波动性 我国基金运作时间较短不能反映股市发展的所有阶段基金管理公司不保证基金一定盈利也不保证最低收益基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现 基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩亦不够成本基金业绩表现的保证由第三方专业机构出具的业绩证明并不能替代基金托管人的业绩附和函投资人应当认真阅读基金合同招募说明书等基金法律文件以详细了解产品风险收益特征根据自身能力审慎决策独立承担投资风险直播中所涉材料及内容除特别著名外 版权归华安基金所有未经允许请勿转发本场直播相关产品风险等级以代销机 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问， 优选300指数，历史表现如何？ 当前估值如何，适合投资吗？有哪些对应的指数基金可以选择呢？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0401 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 优选300：叠加了红利、成长、质量的多策略指数 A股常见的指数，主要分为四类。 第一类是宽基指数。 通常是按照上市公司的市值规模来选股的，会包含各个行业的股票，覆盖范围很"宽"。 第二类是策略指数。 通常是在宽基指数的基础上，用了某一种投资策略，覆盖的行业也会比较广泛。 策略指数丰富了我们投资的选项，满足了很多投资者个性化的需求。 第三类是行业指数。 也就是仅覆盖了某个行业的股票，例如消费、医药、金融等。最常见的行业指数，是11个一级 行业。 每个一级行业，其实都是社会不可或缺的一部分，长期也是跟着社会发展的。 第四类是主题指数。 这个指数，是2018年2月14日发布的，基准日期是2008年12月31日。 截至2025年3月28日， 优选300指数的平均市值超过1000亿，市值中位数为170多 ...

"现在正处于判断最困难的阶段，不管你的预测是什么，你都必须承认：自己预测正确的可能性比以往任何时候 都更低 "， 在当前高度不确定的市场环境中，霍华德·马克斯如此提醒道。 这套投资框架在 2017 、 2018 年才逐渐完善，摊开来看，很有工程师的"设计感"；他也坦言如果自己没有进 入金融行业，可能就是去做房屋、桥梁的结构设计了。 第一，不利于危墙之下，即规避强周期陷阱；第二，有可验证的数据，选择护城河深厚、 ROE 稳定的企业；第 三，材料清晰，以 3-5 年维度，隐含回报率达到 15% 为目标，自下而上精选个股。 2018 年 9 月，蒲世林加入富国基金，面对 2019 、 2020 年的大行情，蒲世林先感知到的是变化——核心资 产变贵了，从而迅速反应。 从其代表产品在管的另一产品富国城镇发展的持仓来看，前十大重仓股持股集中度从2021年初的43%，截止 2021年中报一路下降到30%，并且换仓到了机械、银行等行业。在沪深300下跌5.2%的2021年，蒲世林的富 国城镇发展收益率17.03%。 （数据来源：富国城镇发展定期报告，持仓集中度、行业分布等数据仅为时点数据，不代表基金当前 或未来持仓。） 随后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in performance growth, with core revenue contributions increasing. As of April 12, 2024, 25 out of 42 listed banks reported a year-on-year revenue growth of -0.4% and a net profit growth of 2.0%, both showing a 1 percentage point improvement compared to the previous three quarters [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector will benefit from strong fiscal policies implemented since October 2024, which are expected to boost economic confidence and stabilize asset quality. If these policies effectively stimulate the real estate and consumer sectors, there will be opportunities for cyclical strategies [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The banking sector consists of 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 114,992 billion and a circulating market value of about 78,974 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, 17.3% over six months, and 17.7% over twelve months. The relative performance is 2.8%, 15.6%, and 24.4% respectively [3]. Market Review - For the week of April 7-13, 2025, the major indices saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 6.73%. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 10,349 billion, up 41.54% from the previous week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, such as state-owned banks and regional banks with high provision coverage ratios. It also recommends banks with a high proportion of retail assets, which are expected to show greater resilience in the economic recovery [5][6]. Specific banks highlighted include: - Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and China Merchants Bank, all rated as "Recommended" with projected EPS growth for 2025 [6].