两年期美债收益率涨0.93个基点，报3.9901%，日内交投于3.9489%-4.0024%区间，20:10刷新日低之后 持续反弹，在02:00美联储发布会议纪要之前刷新日高。 周三（5月28日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率上涨3.37个基点，报4.4773%，日内交投于 4.4358%-4.4991%区间，北京时间20:24微跌刷新日低——前后形成V形反转。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant fluctuations in 2023, reaching a historical high above $3,500 per ounce but recently dropping to around $3,120 due to changing inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury yield volatility, and varying diversification demand for safe-haven assets [1]. Scenario Summaries Scenario 1: Stabilization of Gold Prices - Experts predict that gold prices may remain relatively stable throughout June, largely due to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on June 17, which could influence demand based on potential changes in the federal funds rate [2]. - As of May 27, the probability of a rate change in June was only 5.6%, suggesting limited potential for significant price fluctuations [2]. - The implementation of proposed tariffs may also impact gold prices, with recent trends indicating that gold has reacted more to tariff news than to substantial global developments [2]. Scenario 2: Decline in Gold Prices - There is a possibility of gold prices declining, particularly if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises interest rates during the June meeting, although this is considered unlikely [3]. - Factors such as rising inflation due to tariffs and a strong labor market could lead to a rate hike, prompting funds to shift from gold to U.S. Treasuries [3]. - Geopolitical developments, such as a resolution to trade tensions or a reduction in central bank gold purchases, could also contribute to a decrease in gold prices [3]. - Despite potential declines, the extent is expected to be limited due to ongoing aggressive gold purchases by central banks, which provide a solid support base for prices [3]. Scenario 3: Rebound in Gold Prices - If economic data released in June indicates a weakening economy, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to lower interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [3]. - A softening economic outlook would likely increase calls for rate cuts, boosting demand for gold as a weaker dollar stimulates buying [3]. - Significant geopolitical events that heighten risks, such as stalled trade negotiations or increased global tensions, could also lead to a surge in gold prices, potentially breaking historical highs [3].

Core Insights - The report discusses the recent rise in long-term US Treasury yields, with both 20-year and 30-year yields surpassing 5% and remaining above this level since late May 2023 [3][4][8] - The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16 is identified as a primary factor contributing to the increase in yields, leading to a disappointing auction for 20-year bonds on May 21, where the final yield was 5.047%, up 24 basis points from April [4][6] - Concerns regarding the US debt ceiling have resurfaced, particularly following the passage of the "Beautiful Bill" on May 22, which allows for a $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, suggesting a return to expansionary fiscal policies [4][6][7] - Market fears of inflation and delayed interest rate cuts are also contributing to the sustained high yields, with the report indicating that the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower rates could keep yields elevated for an extended period [8] Summary by Sections Recent Yield Trends - Long-term US Treasury yields have recently risen above 5%, with specific reference to the 20-year and 30-year bonds [3][5] - The yields have been influenced by a combination of credit rating downgrades, debt ceiling issues, and inflation concerns [4][8] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade by Moody's has led to increased market volatility and higher yields, as all three major rating agencies have now rated US debt below the highest level [4][6] - The immediate effect was seen in the auction results, which reflected a significant increase in yield compared to previous months [4][6] Debt Ceiling Concerns - The passage of the "Beautiful Bill" has raised expectations of increased debt supply, which could further pressure yields upward [4][6][7] - Historical context is provided, noting that after previous debt ceiling resolutions, yields have tended to rise, indicating a potential pattern [6][7] Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The report highlights that inflation fears and the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts are likely to maintain high yield levels [8] - The probability of a rate cut in June has dropped significantly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [8][11]

【资讯导读】 ·5月美国消费者信心指数大幅上升 ·法国5月调和CPI同比上涨0.6%，为2020年12月以来的最低水平，低于市场预期的0.9%。 ·叙利亚财政部长称，叙利亚将从6月2日开始重新开放股票市场。 ·特朗普政府正在考虑要求所有申请赴美留学的外国学生接受社交媒体审查 ·叙利亚将从6月2日开始重新开放股票市场 ·日本34年来首次失去全球最大债权国地位 【市场资讯】 ·美国3月FHFA房价指数环比降0.1%，预期升0.1%，前值从升0.1%修正为持平。美国3月S&P/CS20座大 城市未季调房价指数同比升4.1%，预期升4.5%，前值升4.5%。 ·世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，5月美国消费者信心指数从4月的85.7大幅上升至98，高于所有经济 学家预期。 ·受商用飞机订单锐减拖累，美国4月耐用品订单超预期下滑，核心资本货物订单环比下降1.3%，创去年 10月以来最大跌幅。整体耐用品订单环比初值暴跌6.3%。 ·美国特朗普政府正在考虑要求所有申请赴美留学的外国学生接受社交媒体审查。为准备实施这一审查 要求，特朗普政府已下令美国各大使馆和领事馆停止为此类学生签证申请人安排新的面试。 ·墨西哥经济部长Mar ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a significant decline on May 27, with the 10-year benchmark yield falling by 7.92 basis points to 4.4338% after a long weekend, indicating a downward trend in the bond market [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury yield traded within a range of 4.5070% to 4.4259% throughout the day [1] - The 20-year Treasury yield decreased by 8.60 basis points [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw a decline of 9.04 basis points [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced mixed performance, with the Jakarta Composite Index rising by 1.51% while the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell by 2.31% [1][3] - The Nikkei 225 Index and KOSPI Index both saw declines of 1.57% and 1.32% respectively, indicating a broader trend of downward movement in major indices [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the recent fluctuations in the Asia-Pacific stock markets are normal market volatility, influenced by global macroeconomic changes and structural adjustments within certain industries [3] Group 2: Economic Growth in Southeast Asia - Five out of six major Southeast Asian economies are experiencing a slowdown in economic growth, with Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand revising their growth forecasts downward [4][5] - Singapore's GDP growth for Q1 was reported at 3.9%, with a forecasted annual growth rate adjusted to between 0% and 2%, down from a previous estimate of 1% to 3% [4][5] - Other Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia and Vietnam, also reported lower GDP growth rates compared to previous quarters, indicating a regional trend of economic deceleration [5][6] Group 3: Impact of U.S. Tax Policies - The potential implementation of U.S. tax cuts under President Trump is raising concerns about increasing deficit rates, which could negatively affect investor sentiment towards Asian capital markets [2][6] - The anticipated rise in U.S. deficit rates and the resulting high bond yields may lead to a shift in investment strategies, causing some Asian markets to weaken [2][6] Group 4: Japanese Bond Market Dynamics - The Japanese bond market is facing significant pressure, with a notable decline in demand and a rise in yields, attributed to higher inflation and potential fiscal stimulus measures [7] - The supply-demand imbalance in the Japanese bond market has contributed to upward pressure on global bond yields, particularly affecting U.S. Treasury yields [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline following President Trump's tariff threats against the EU and Apple, indicating market volatility and investor reactions to geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell by 1.77 basis points to 4.5110% at the end of trading on May 23 [1] - The yield dropped to 4.4456% at 20:08 Beijing time, marking a weekly increase of 3.40 basis points, with a peak of 4.6247% on May 22 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 0.11 basis points to 3.9912%, having previously dipped to 3.9017% at 20:08, with a cumulative decline of 0.83 basis points for the week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns that the rising U.S. debt and deficit should concern investors about the government bond market [1][2] Group 1: Debt and Deficit Concerns - Dalio emphasizes the severity of the situation, comparing it to a doctor diagnosing a patient, indicating that the U.S. is in a critical state regarding its debt [1] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with the government expected to face a deficit of approximately 6.5% of GDP, which exceeds market capacity [1] - Recent concerns over fiscal conditions led to Moody's downgrading the U.S. credit rating, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached about 5.14%, the highest level seen in 2023 [1] Group 2: Political Challenges - Dalio expresses skepticism about politicians' ability to resolve differences and alleviate the national debt burden, highlighting that bipartisan cooperation often results in increased spending [2] - A recent House vote approved legislation that could lead to tax cuts and increased military spending, potentially adding trillions to the national debt and further expanding the deficit [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a downturn, with April existing home sales declining by 0.5% month-over-month, significantly below the expected 2% increase [1] - The annualized sales total reached only 4 million units, marking the worst April performance since the 2009 financial crisis [1] Group 1: Market Performance - April existing home sales fell 3.1% year-over-year, with total inventory increasing by 21% to 1.45 million units, the highest April inventory since 2020 [5] - Despite an increase in listings, sales did not improve, leading to a downward revision of the annual sales forecast by NAR [5] Group 2: Interest Rates and Buyer Sentiment - The primary reason for the sluggish market is rising mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching 6.92%, the highest in nearly three months [5] - Consumer sentiment regarding home buying is at a historical low, with many Americans feeling it is not a good time to purchase a home [5] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The median price of existing homes in April was $414,000, a 1.8% increase year-over-year, but the smallest increase since mid-2023 [6] - The market shows regional variations, with the Midwest seeing a slight increase in sales, while the West and Northeast continue to decline [6] Group 4: Buyer Demographics - First-time homebuyers accounted for 34% of transactions, the highest level since July 2020, while cash transactions made up 25% of sales [6] - Investment and vacation buyers represented 15% of the market, remaining stable from the previous month [6]

Core View - On May 22, 2025, the surge in US Treasury yields pressured copper prices [2] Market Overview - On May 22, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,010 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 78,060 yuan/ton and a low of 77,730 yuan/ton, closing at 77,920 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume was 61,000 lots, with a reduction of 10,000 lots in positions. The open interest was 153,000 lots, also with a reduction of 10,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - The US experienced a triple sell - off in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, with the 30 - year US Treasury yield rising above 5% [4] Supply Aspect - In April 2025, China's imports of copper scrap showed a "month - on - month recovery and year - on - year contraction" trend, with a monthly import volume of 204,700 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month but down 9.46% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, down 0.81% year - on - year [4] - US exports of copper scrap to China showed a "double decline" in March - April. In March, the export volume was 225,000 tons (down 28.41% month - on - month and 51.51% year - on - year), and its share in the Chinese market dropped to 11.85%, ranking second. In April, although it increased slightly by 4.98% month - on - month to 23,600 tons, it was still down 43.98% year - on - year, and its share further shrank to 11.52%, dropping to third place [4] - Japan's exports to China reached 32,700 tons in April, up 21.02% month - on - month and 13.78% year - on - year, ranking first with a 15.96% share. Thailand's exports were 25,000 tons, up 26.9% month - on - month and 60.98% year - on - year, becoming the second - largest supplier [4] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, China's exports of copper strips were 10,741 tons, up 1.87% month - on - month and 19.84% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative exports were 39,166 tons, up 6.86% year - on - year [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 22, LME copper inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons [5] Future Outlook - The front - loading of US import trade demand led to the continuous transfer of LME and SHFE copper to COMEX, which boosted copper prices. However, the negative impact of the consumption off - season on copper prices should be watched out for [6]