Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) is expected to experience significant price increases, potentially surpassing $4500 per ounce due to various economic factors, including anticipated inflation in the U.S. and ongoing central bank gold purchases [3][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the gold ETF fund has decreased by 0.81%, with a latest price of 7.26 yuan [3]. - The fund's latest scale reached 29.08 billion yuan, with a total of 3.975 billion shares, marking a one-year high [3]. - Over the past five days, the fund has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 388 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of approximately 77.53 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Historical Returns - The gold ETF fund has achieved a net value increase of 94.89% over the past five years, ranking second among comparable funds [4]. - Since its inception, the fund's highest monthly return was 10.62%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 16.53% [4]. - The fund has a historical three-year profit probability of 100% and an annual profit percentage of 80% [4]. Group 3: Risk and Fees - The fund's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [4]. - The maximum drawdown for the year to date is 8.14%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.30% [4]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 2.92, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4].

最近，全球经济舞台上似乎吹来了一阵暖风。 先是中美贸易战迎来了90天的"休战期"，这让紧张的市场情绪得到了缓解，对经济衰退的担忧也随之减 轻。 紧接着，备受关注的美国4月份消费者价格指数（CPI）公布，数据显示通胀年化率降至2.3%，这已经 是连续第三个月出现降温，离美联储设定的2%通胀目标越来越近。 贸易战暂停，通胀数据向好，这看起来都是积极信号。 特朗普也一再向美联储施压，这不昨晚又喊话了，称美联储一再推迟降息"對已經準備好開花結果的美 國不公平"。 再者，当前的经济数据也呈现出喜忧参半的局面。尽管美国经济在2025年第一季度出现了0.3%的收 缩，但4月份的就业报告却显示劳动力市场依然强劲，新增就业岗位超出了预期。 这种矛盾的信号增加了经济前景的复杂性。美联储主席鲍威尔自己也坦言，他对经济路径的不确定性感 到"非常高"。 华尔街的主流观点也倾向于美联储会保持谨慎。包括高盛和德意志银行在内的多家机构都预计，美联储 首次降息的时间会比之前预期的更晚，可能要到12月才会开始，而且降息的步伐也会比较缓慢。 他们认为，随着经济增长保持稳定，失业率没有急剧上升，对激进降息来刺激经济的需求就没那么迫切 了。 那么，是 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.33% as of the report date [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.46%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.94% [1] - Notably, Huaxia Fund announced a reduction in trading fees for the Gold Stock ETF (159562) and its linked funds, effective May 15, 2025, lowering management fees from 0.50% to 0.15% and custody fees from 0.10% to 0.05%, making it the lowest fee level in the market for similar products [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities believes that the core drivers for gold price increases in 2025, amid U.S. "stagflation" expectations, have not yet fully played out, indicating significant potential for the current gold upcycle [1] - The firm has constructed a gold space measurement framework, predicting that increased "stagflation" pressures in the U.S. will initiate a new round of gold price increases [1] - The outlook for gold stocks remains positive, with expectations of a "Davis Double" effect combined with undervaluation and increased institutional allocation, maintaining a "bottom layout" judgment [1] Group 3 - Huatai Futures noted that while the Federal Reserve is currently holding steady, other central banks are still engaging in rate cuts, leading to a temporary recovery in market risk sentiment [2] - Despite concerns about U.S. economic recession easing, the market's rate cut expectations have adjusted to 56 basis points, aligning with Federal Reserve forecasts, suggesting limited negative impact on gold prices from interest rate logic [2] - Tianfeng Futures indicated that the recent alleviation of external disturbances may prolong the time needed for gold prices to rebound, as credit logic's headwinds could continue to develop [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market sentiment has improved, with major indices opening higher following constructive progress in the China-US trade talks [1][11] - In April, China's exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, despite a significant decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April turned positive, driven by rising food and travel prices, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market, stimulating domestic demand, and supporting the real estate market [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions to lower financing costs for enterprises [7] - The US Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate plans to change interest rates amid rising economic uncertainties [11]

金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 20250513 摘要 • 当前美国经济可能处于滞胀状态，即将公布的 CPI 数据和二季度数据可能 偏向通胀，金融压力不容忽视，或影响美联储决策。 • 金融压力指数综合衡量融资条件、违约风险和风险偏好，通过短端利率传 导至长端利率影响经济，是美联储关注的重要指标。 • 金融市场动荡会恶化居民消费意愿，金融条件收紧可能影响制造业投资。 关税导致的通胀上行压力通常是暂时性的，美联储或更关注经济下行风险。 • 过去十年，中国经济放缓、美联储超预期加息、新冠疫情冲击和美国非失 业率上升等事件均导致金融压力提升，迫使美联储转向鸽派。 • 2015-2016 年，全球经济不确定性及金融市场动荡对美国经济构成下行 风险，促使美联储下修加息空间，金融压力上升成为转鸽信号。 • 2018 年鹰派加息导致美股回撤，2020 年初疫情爆发，2021 年失业率突 升，美联储均采取宽松政策应对，但 2022 年高通胀时期则选择加息。 • 预计美联储可能在 7 月、10 月和 12 月降息，7 月降息概率较高。股票市 场压力或实体利差问题可能成为货币宽松开启的时间点，或在 3 月份。 Q&A 美联储 ...

外国投资者史无前例的购买狂潮包括净买入255亿美元的日本股票（自2023年4月以来最大金额）和净买 入315亿美元的日本长期债券（自2022年7月以来最大规模）。 交易员表示，购买总额可能受到了全球央行购买日本国债的提振。野村证券首席外汇策略师Yujiro Goto 表示，购买日本长期债券的规模"显著超出"季节性模式，并因与抢购股票同时发生而引人注目。他表 示，海外投资者可能将美元资金转移到日本，作为"去美元化"趋势的一部分，并将日本视为合理的选 择，因为其市场规模庞大且相对稳定。 星展银行首席经济学家Mansoor Mohi-uddin表示，4月份巨大的"买入日本"狂潮发生在全球投资者对美 国政策转变、贸易战以及特朗普批评美联储主席鲍威尔的背景下。"4月份日本可能确实受到了去美元化 趋势的影响，这种想法也许有一定道理，"Mohi-uddin表示。"可能我们正看到一些外国央行进入日本 国债市场。当他们进行多元化投资时，会寻找流动性强的市场，对储备管理机构来说，日本在这方面表 现突出。" 本周，中美达成重要贸易共识，市场有所企稳，尚不清楚涌入日本资产的热潮是否会持续。 日本财务省本周公布的数据显示，4月份，在美 ...

金十数据5月13日讯，美国银行对全球基金经理的调查显示，5月份，人们对全球经济增长停滞、通胀上 升（即"滞胀"）的感知风险略有缓解。调查显示，81%的投资者预计未来12个月将出现滞胀。相比之 下，4月份的调查结果为90%，是2022年11月以来的最高水平。最新的调查还显示，9%的人预计经济将 停滞不前，或者增长和通胀将低于趋势水平。约3%的人预计经济增长和通货膨胀都将高于趋势水平， 而3%的人预计经济增长强劲、通货膨胀率低的"金发姑娘"局面将出现。 美国银行调查显示，对滞胀的担忧略有缓解 ...

在对美国资产的态度谨慎的背景下，"做多黄金"已连续第二个月成为市场最拥挤交易。 13日，美银Michael Hartnett发布研报。5月基金经理调查显示，投资者情绪低迷，对美国资产尤其悲观。 投资者对美元的配置降至2006年5月以来最低水平， 57%的投资者认为美元被高估。 与此同时， 黄金被认为是十七年来估值最高的资产， 58%的投资者认为这是当前最拥挤交易。 调查还显示， 62%的投资者认为，关税引发全球衰退是最大的尾部风险。 尽管投资者对全球经济前景的预期有所改善，但仍有81%的投资者预计经济将陷 入"滞胀"。 Michael Hartnett在报告中表示， 在上个月的反弹中大多错过机会后，投资者将可能被迫追涨。 据 商务部12日消息 ，中美各取消了共计91%的加征关税，暂 停实施24%的反制关税。 "做多黄金"成为最拥挤交易，黄金估值创记录新高 调查显示， "做多黄金"连续第二个月成为市场最拥挤的交易，58%的投资者认为这是当前最拥挤交易，远高于排名第二的"做多科技巨头"（22%）。 同时， 黄金被视为有记录以来（自2008年起）最被高估的资产，净45%的投资者认为黄金被高估， 较4月的34%进一步 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 2% to 1%, while inflation expectations have risen from 2.5% to 4.5%[1] - In Q1 2023, the US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%[1] - China's exports to the US fell significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 21% in April 2023[14] Group 2: Future Scenarios of US-China Tariff Negotiations - Optimistic scenario: The US may cancel the suspended 24% tariff, retaining a 10% tariff, leading to a total tariff rate of 30%-50% by 2025[2] - Baseline scenario: If negotiations fail, the US could impose a total tariff rate of approximately 74% by 2025, with an additional 54% tariff on Chinese goods[3] - Pessimistic scenario: The US may reimpose the 24% tariff and increase tariffs further if economic conditions allow, with potential retaliatory measures from China[3] Group 3: US Motivations for Negotiation - The US is under pressure from rising inflation and economic stagnation, prompting a willingness to negotiate tariffs[14] - Strong discontent from the US business community regarding tariffs has influenced the US administration's approach to negotiations[15] - China's non-tariff measures, particularly in rare earth exports, have significantly impacted US negotiations[15] Group 4: China's Response Strategies - China may adopt a "genuine negotiation" approach, where it could agree to certain conditions while leveraging non-tariff measures[3] - Alternatively, if the US is not sincere, China should maintain a firm stance and focus on expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships[3] - China aims to strengthen international cooperation and oppose unilateral actions from the US[3]

Group 1 - "Long gold" has become the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, with 58% of investors considering it the current most crowded trade, significantly higher than the second-ranked "long tech giants" at 22% [2] - Gold is viewed as the most overvalued asset since 2008, with a net 45% of investors believing it is overvalued, an increase from 34% in April [5] - Investor sentiment towards the US dollar has shifted significantly, with a net 17% of investors holding a low allocation stance, marking a 19-year low since May 2006 [8] Group 2 - A net 57% of investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month, representing the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [11] - Despite a slight improvement in global investor sentiment, it remains at a pessimistic level, with 61% of investors expecting a "soft landing" for the global economy, up from 37% in April [16] - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, although expectations are still down 66 percentage points from the peak in December 2024 [19] Group 3 - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, with 43% believing tariffs could lead to a systemic credit event, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [21] - Investors are significantly adjusting their asset allocations, with a net 38% underweight in US stocks, the lowest level since May 2023, while eurozone stock allocation increased by 13 percentage points to a net 35% overweight [26] - There has been a substantial increase in tech stock allocation by 17 percentage points, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2013, while energy stock allocation has dropped to a net 35% underweight, the lowest on record [26]