每经编辑：叶峰 截至上周五（7月25日），伦敦现货黄金报收3336.22美元/盎司，上周累计下跌13.44美元/盎司，跌幅 0.40%。上周金价继续横盘震荡， 金价最高上行至3,431.20美元/盎司，最低下探至3,336.22美元/盎司。 美国6月耐用品订单环比大幅下降，但7月标普全球服务业PMI持续扩张，至25年底降息预期有所降温； 特朗普与多国商谈贸易协议，部分政策仍具不确定性。降息预期小幅降温叠加市场不确定性仍高的情形 下，金价继续横盘震荡。短期市场对于金价走向的分歧进一步加大，需继续关注美国关税情况、后续伊 以冲突进展以及美联储货币政策走向。中长期 "美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+ 全 球去美元化趋势" 对于金价构成一定支撑，回调时或可考虑逢低分批布局。 特朗普的政策主张来看，关税对通胀影响尽管避免了极端情形，但由于"基础关税"已经普遍加征，目前 的关税税率仍然高于之前，激进的关税政策依然放大了美国经济陷入"通货膨胀与经济停滞并存"的"滞 胀"风险。同时政策的反复加剧了市场不确定性，对于金价也有一定支撑。特朗普"逆全球化"关税政策 主张也可能会一定程度上促进央行购金趋势。 回顾上周以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in trade volume, weak consumer spending, inventory surplus, and monetary policy uncertainty, which may lead to deflationary downturns or even recession [1][13]. Trade Volume Decline - In May 2025, U.S. container imports fell to 2,177,453 TEU, a 9.7% decrease from April and a 7.2% decline year-over-year [2]. - Industry analyst John Macao predicts a potential 25% reduction in U.S. container shipping volume, equating to a $510 billion decrease in annual business activity [2]. - The decline in trade volume is attributed to global supply chain adjustments and policy uncertainties, with tariff instability prompting businesses to import early, leading to a "whipsaw effect" in trade data [2]. Port Activity and Inventory Management - The Port of Los Angeles experienced its busiest month in June 2025, with an 8% year-over-year increase in cargo volume, following significant declines in May [3]. - The fluctuations in port activity are driven by geopolitical and tariff policy changes rather than economic recovery, highlighting supply chain vulnerabilities [3]. - Companies are utilizing Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) to manage inventory levels, but this strategy may transfer risks to banks and financial institutions, increasing systemic risk if demand remains weak [4]. Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has significantly weakened, with the Conference Board's index dropping to a near five-year low in April 2025 [5]. - Retail sales growth was only 0.68% annualized in the first half of 2025, with actual retail sales declining by 1.75% in the second quarter, indicating a recessionary trend [6]. - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data also reflect a similar downward trend, with negative growth observed in early 2025 [6]. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3% in June 2025, with a cumulative decline of 2.8% over six months, indicating a significant loss of economic momentum [7]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, reflecting concerns over inflation and growth [8]. - Market signals indicate a growing expectation for interest rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield stable at 4.35% and the 2-year yield dropping to 3.84% [8][9]. Global Trade Context - The decline in U.S. trade volume is part of a broader global economic slowdown, with the WTO revising its global goods trade growth forecast from 3% to -0.2% for 2025 [10]. - The tightening of global financial conditions and high external debt levels in developing countries create a "perfect storm," increasing the risk of debt crises [11]. Systemic Risks and Policy Uncertainty - The combination of inventory surplus and weak consumer demand poses significant risks to the U.S. economy, with estimates indicating the current inventory surplus is the largest since 2008 and 2020 [12]. - Frequent adjustments to U.S. tariff policies disrupt supply chains and erode business confidence, potentially leading to further declines in trade volume and consumer spending [13].

Core Insights - The actual economic impact of Trump's tariff policy has diverged significantly from initial predictions, leading to unexpected consequences for the dollar and inflation [1][5][9] - The anticipated "stagflation" effect has not materialized, as the U.S. economy remains resilient despite rising tariff revenues [4][6][9] Group 1: Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policy was expected to strengthen the dollar and induce stagflation, with economists estimating a 0.1% reduction in economic growth and a 0.1% increase in inflation for every 1% rise in tariff rates [5][9] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 2.5% to 15%, yet the dollar has weakened, experiencing its most severe decline in half a century [5][6] - Tariff revenues are growing at an annualized rate of $300 billion, approximately four times higher than the previous year, but the economy continues to show resilience [4][6] Group 2: Factors Mitigating Negative Effects - The surge in artificial intelligence investments and ongoing government fiscal stimulus have countered the negative impacts of the tariff policy [4][6][9] - Projected annual spending on AI infrastructure by tech giants has increased by $60 billion since January, reaching $350 billion, which has bolstered economic growth [6][9] - Trump's tax cuts have allowed U.S. companies to absorb much of the tariff costs, with an estimated savings of $100 billion in 2023, primarily through tax reductions [7][9] Group 3: Complexity of Economic Systems - The current economic situation illustrates the limitations of simplistic economic models that attribute outcomes to single factors, as the economy is influenced by multiple variables [8][9] - Despite the potential for stagflation to emerge if average effective tax rates continue to rise, the current tariff rates have not overwhelmed the larger forces supporting growth and controlling inflation [9][10]

Group 1 - The US-China trade talks in Geneva resulted in a joint statement with several positive agreements, including a reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods from an average of 27% to 16%, still historically high [2][3] - The economic impact of tariffs is being monitored, with projections indicating a potential 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation due to tariff adjustments [3][4] - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with concerns about the potential for the US to revert to previous tariff policies, which could further impact economic stability [3][5] Group 2 - The trade dynamics show a trend of "import grabbing" in the US, with significant increases in imports observed in the first quarter, leading to higher inventory levels [6][7] - Certain US export sectors, particularly those reliant on foreign intermediate goods, are expected to face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs, notably in the petroleum, metals, and transportation equipment industries [7][8] - The inflationary effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with consumer price indices reflecting the impact of increased import costs, although the response to tariffs has been slower than anticipated [9][10] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is likely to elevate financial pressures and affect consumer and business investment sentiment, potentially leading to a slowdown in economic growth [11][12] - The labor market indicators suggest upward pressure on unemployment rates, which could signal a weakening in the consumer-employment cycle critical for economic health [13][14] - The overall economic trajectory is expected to shift from "stagflation" to a potential slowdown, with ongoing monitoring of key economic indicators necessary to assess future risks [15][16]

Group 1 - Schroders Investment remains optimistic about the stock market outlook, but is cautious about the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. due to the lagging effects of tariffs on the real economy [1] - The primary constraint on the stock market is the rising debt levels resulting from increased government spending, which affects the bond market's capacity [1] - Despite rising debt levels, Schroders still views bonds as a favorable source of returns rather than merely a diversification tool, with gold being the preferred option for portfolio diversification [1][3] Group 2 - Recent expansionary fiscal policies have supported nominal economic growth and corporate earnings, while populist policies may have a positive impact on the stock market [2] - The greatest threat to the economic outlook is the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with the effective tariff rate expected to rise to 12%, the highest level since World War II [2] - The market's reaction to new tariff threats has been muted, indicating that investors may be underestimating the potential for significant tariff increases by the Trump administration [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration continues to monitor the bond market, recognizing the importance of maintaining financial market stability, with inflation expectations remaining under control [3] - A notable steepening of the yield curve has been observed, with long-term bond yields rising faster than short-term yields, reflecting market concerns about fiscal spending [3] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the bond market, and the succession plan for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be a focal point for investors [3] Group 4 - The dollar maintains unmatched liquidity in the global financial system, prompting many institutions to reassess their dollar allocation strategies [4] - Despite the high exposure to U.S. assets, there is a growing recognition of the need for diversification in investment portfolios [4] - Investors should focus on medium-term trends rather than overreacting to daily news, as the political and economic consensus has shifted, affecting the correlation between different asset classes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with a rebound from 3247 to 3438 followed by a decline, primarily driven by changes in economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Movements - The initial rebound in gold prices was supported by a decline in the US dollar and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields, which reduced the cost for non-dollar investors to purchase gold [3]. - Increased risk aversion due to approaching tariff negotiation deadlines and ongoing geopolitical conflicts led to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [4]. - Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September enhanced gold's attractiveness, contributing to the price rebound [5]. Group 2: Key Reasons for the Subsequent Decline - A correction in the market's overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts occurred after strong economic data, including the PMI and CPI, indicated economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal [6]. - The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan alleviated trade tension concerns, prompting a withdrawal of safe-haven investments from gold [8]. - A strong performance in the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq reaching new highs, shifted investor focus from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further pressuring gold prices [8]. Group 3: Future Market Focus Points - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 will be crucial; a hawkish signal could lead to a drop in gold prices to around 3300, while a hint at a September rate cut might trigger a technical rebound [9]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Ukraine and trade dynamics between the US and Europe, will influence gold's safe-haven premium [10]. - The continuity of strong US economic data, including non-farm payrolls and PCE price index, will shape expectations for sustained high interest rates, impacting gold's market dynamics [11]. Group 4: Trading Strategy for Next Week - The market is currently in a triangular range, with a potential rebound expected if prices remain above the 3300 support level; the 20-day moving average at 3260 serves as a critical defense point [12]. - A trading strategy suggests buying in the 3310-3312 range with a stop-loss at 3300, targeting 3322-3324, while considering short positions in the 3351-3353 range with a stop-loss at 3363, targeting 3339-3341 [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The fear of returning to the "stagflation" era of the 1970s due to tariff-induced price increases is deemed incorrect by Clearwater Analytics' research head Matthew Jeffrey Vegari, as the current economic conditions do not exhibit high unemployment, a key characteristic of stagflation [1] Economic Growth and Unemployment - Although economic growth in the U.S. may face challenges in the next couple of years, the consensus indicates that high unemployment, a hallmark of stagflation, is currently absent [1] - The Federal Reserve's ability to cool down an overheating economy without triggering a recession is praised, suggesting effective monetary policy [1] Future Inflation and Employment Trends - There may be a future period where inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously, but it is asserted that the current Federal Reserve will prevent a situation as severe as that of the 1970s, and high inflation is not expected to persist [1]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Schroders Investment presents a macroeconomic outlook for global financial markets, highlighting the impact of potential tariff policies and changes in consumer behavior [1] - Asian stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks year-to-date, driven by increased investor interest in Asia, despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs [1] - The U.S. inflation is gradually declining, raising concerns about the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market remains resilient with active hiring, but there are indications that the market may be overestimating the Federal Reserve's dovish stance [1][2] - Global fiscal policies are shifting towards expansion, with increased defense spending outside the U.S. and policy changes like the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1] - Eurozone inflation has returned to the 2% target, but economic growth forecasts for 2025 continue to be downgraded [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Investment Strategy - The potential threat of new tariffs may lead to stagflation pressures, with consumers becoming more cautious in their spending [2] - Despite the risks, Schroders maintains a positive outlook on overall stock performance, focusing on broad allocations across different regions, particularly in the U.S. and European financial sectors [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of internal demand trends, stable corporate earnings, and a favorable interest rate environment for investment strategies [2] Group 4: Fixed Income and Credit Market - Schroders holds a neutral stance on overall bond duration, balancing the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve against fiscal deficits and supply pressures that may elevate long-term yields [2] - The company maintains a neutral view on the credit market, noting high valuations but stable technical fundamentals, with U.S. credit still favored by overseas investors [2] Group 5: Commodity Outlook - Schroders continues to favor gold as a traditional hedge against inflation, with strong demand expected as central banks increase their holdings [3] - The overall financial market outlook remains uncertain, prompting Schroders to adopt a cautious and flexible investment approach to capture resilient and potentially rewarding opportunities amid volatility [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's announcement of increasing tariffs, with a minimum rate of 15% and a potential range of 15% to 50% depending on the country, indicating a significant shift in trade policy [1][2] - Trump has indicated that he will send letters to over 150 countries regarding the potential tariff rates, which marks an increase from the previously expected 10% baseline [1] - The announcement of higher tariffs is seen as a catalyst for further escalation in trade tensions, with the market showing indifference to these developments, potentially encouraging more aggressive tariff actions from the Trump administration [3][6] Group 2 - Analysts from major banks, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, predict that the impact of the new tariffs will not be fully reflected in economic data until later in the year, with inflationary pressures expected to rise significantly [4][5] - The TACO trading strategy has gained popularity among investors, betting that Trump will ultimately back down from his aggressive tariff threats, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [6][7] - There is a growing concern among analysts that the market's confidence in Trump's eventual retreat from tariffs may be misplaced, as the rapid market gains could lead to disappointment if expectations are not met [7]

虽然美银的结构性观点保持不变，但最新进展给美银的基准情景带来了上行风险（基准情景即有效关税将稳定在 10% 左右）。特别是可能会有更多针 对特定行业的关税出台。不确定性和关税冲击的持续时间在延长。即使有特朗普看跌期权，关税可能也不会完全回到中美协议中 5 月份的低点。 7月22日，美银发布研究报告指出，美国最新的关税公告可能使有效税率提高约 5 个百分点。根据过去 12 个月的进口构成，美银估计有效税率将升至 近 16%（图表 1）。 有效关税税率大约提高 5 个百分点，将使美国财政赤字降低约 50 个基点，对于仍高于 GDP 6% 的赤字来说不算多，并且会给通胀带来约 30 个基点的 上行风险，给增长带来下行风险。 但最新的关税公告远非板上钉钉。相反，截止日期从 7 月 9 日延长至 8 月 1 日表明还有谈判的空间。尽管如此，由于滞胀冲击可能延续到 2026 年，美 联储更有可能按兵不动，这与美银与众不同的观点一致，即今年美联储不会降息。 截至 5 月，美银对有效关税的估计与实际征收的关税非常接近，总体有效关税税率为 9.6%。 不过，美银发现了一些差异。5 月份对中国的关税征收超过了美银的估计，实际计算 ...