Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions have increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to fluctuations in gold prices, with predictions of further increases in the coming years [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 7, COMEX gold futures reached a high of $4,512 per ounce before retreating to around $4,454 per ounce by the end of the A-share market [1] - The performance of gold-related ETFs showed mixed results, with 华夏 ETF (518850) down 0.65% and 黄金股 ETF (159562) down 1.36%, while 有色金属 ETF (516650) rose by 0.39% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. government is expected to release the non-farm employment report for December 2025, which is crucial for determining the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices will rise to $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in the Federal Reserve leadership, and continued purchases by central banks and funds [1]

1月7日：上交易日周二（1月6日）：国际黄金继续反弹收涨，稳于中轨及短期均线之上，多头继续占据 优势，也令后市有继续走强刷新历史新高的预期。虽有高空缺口待回补，但参考2024年4月高开的缺口 仍然存在，故此周内如回补不了，后市就难以或不会回补，故此，在跌回4400美元下方前，仍保持看涨 预期不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4448.62美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4427.94美元，之后一路震荡回升， 延续到盘尾时段录得日内高点4497.21美元，最终持稳收于4494.53美元，日振幅69.27美元，收涨45.91美 元，涨幅1.03%。 影响上，受到重回短期均线上方的跟进买盘支撑，以及地缘政治紧张局势引发的强劲避险需求，特朗普 政府谋划获取格陵兰岛等，再加上美联储米兰呼吁今年降息超100基点，增强降息前景等等，继续助力 金价走强。 展望今日周三（1月7日）：国际黄金开盘短暂走强后有所转弱，受到多头的获利了结，以及美元指数昨 日大幅走强，早盘开盘维持动力而限制了其反弹需求。 不过，整体来看，金价的方向依然是保持看涨上行不变，牛市前景依然良好。 日内将可关注美国12月ADP就业人数（万人）、美国12月ISM非 ...

今日周三(1月7日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于18899一线上方，今日开盘于19460元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报19350元/千克，上涨2.39%，最高触及20235元/千克，最低下探19060元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 此外，白宫周二表示，特朗普正在讨论收购格林兰的选项，包括可能使用美国军方，重燃他控制这一战 略岛屿的雄心。 【要闻速递】 投资者似乎对周末美国对委内瑞拉的攻击表示不以为然，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数在周 二创下新高。 与此同时，美国总统唐纳德.特朗普公开表示，哥伦比亚和墨西哥也可能面临美国军事行动，作为对抗 犯罪网络和地区不稳定的扩大行动的一部分。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银等待本周数据后的调整再顺势做多。沪银溢价扩大至1670元/克，国内情绪强劲。银价再度大幅回 升，情绪依旧强劲，沪银主力合约参考运行区间19400-20200区间。 这还加上俄罗斯与乌克兰和平协议缺乏进展、伊朗动荡以及加沙问题，使地缘政治风险持续存在，并应 支持避险白银。"避险需求和对美联储降息的上升押注支撑了市场，"ActivTrades的分析师里卡多.埃万赫 利斯塔( ...

Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, central bank purchases, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1] - JPMorgan has also raised its gold price outlook, forecasting $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026 and $6,000 in the long term, citing trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks as factors supporting safe-haven demand [3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to macroeconomic and policy shifts, including anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong institutional inflows [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Safe-Haven Demand - The recent U.S. military control over Venezuela's leadership has reignited safe-haven demand for gold, amid rising geopolitical uncertainties in energy and financial markets [2] - Analysts note that investors typically seek gold during economic and political tensions, as it performs well in low-interest-rate environments [2] Group 3: Central Bank and Institutional Demand - Central banks have increased their gold purchases, with gold now surpassing U.S. Treasuries in global central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, indicating strong long-term confidence in gold [4] - Record inflows into gold-backed ETFs reflect growing interest from both institutional and retail investors, further supporting demand for gold [4] Group 4: Other Precious Metals - Silver has seen a significant price increase of 147% in 2025, driven by structural supply shortages and strong industrial demand [6] - Morgan Stanley also highlights positive outlooks for aluminum and copper, with both facing supply constraints amid rising demand [6]

受美国逮捕委内瑞拉总统引发地缘政治紧张局势影响，避险需求升温，现货黄金周二(1月6日)再度大 涨。媒体报道称，特朗普政府正讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括"动用军事手段推进目标"，这进一步加 剧地缘政治紧张情绪。 现货黄金周二收盘大涨45.34美元，涨幅1.02%，报4494.21美元/盎司。 金价前一交易日已大涨近 3%，进一步逼近12月24日创下的历史高点4549.71美元/盎司。 FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia指出，因地缘政治担忧盖过美债收益率上升和美元走强，周二， 黄金价格延续涨势，并逼近4500美元/盎司。 Valencia写道，在地缘政治不确定性加剧的情况下，贵金属交易员继续推动黄金和白银价格升向历史高 位。委内瑞拉总统马杜罗(Nicolas Maduro)被捕以及美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)威胁将此类行动扩展 到其他拉美国家，令投资者感到焦虑，从而转向贵金属的避险需求。 Kitco Metals资深分析师Kitco Metals指出，目前贵金属交易员所感受到的风险程度，高于股票与债券市 场交易员，美国上周末对委内瑞拉的突袭行动，持续推动黄金与白 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 1,004.98 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.06% to 19,452 yuan/kilogram [6]. - After the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and Trump's radical statements, geopolitical risks and the tight supply of silver spot have driven up the prices of precious metals. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are still potential risks. Investors are advised to control their positions [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the credit risk of the US dollar is increasing. The demand for precious metal allocation by central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The long - term price of gold is likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On January 6, 2026, compared with January 5, London gold spot price was 4,466.61 dollars/ounce (up 1.0%), London silver spot price was 78.96 dollars/ounce (up 4.7%), COMEX gold price was 4,476.70 dollars/ounce (up 1.1%), COMEX silver price was 78.76 dollars/ounce (up 4.7%), AU2602 was 1,004.98 yuan/gram (up 1.0%), AG2602 was 19,457.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.6%), AU (T + D) was 1,002.30 yuan/gram (up 1.0%), and AG (T + D) was 19,468.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.4%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From January 5 to January 6, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 7.6%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 69.4%, the spread of gold TD - London decreased by 9.5%, the spread of silver TD - London decreased by 30.6%, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 5.2%, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 3.4%, the spread of AU2604 - 2602 increased by 5.2%, and the spread of AG2604 - 2602 decreased by 61.5% [3]. 2. Position Data - From January 2 to January 5, gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 1,065.13 tons, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.55% to 16,353.59541 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 5.02% to 275,592 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 10.19% to 44,419 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 3.96% to 231,173 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 8.57% to 50,506 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 5.60% to 20,443 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 16.22% to 30,063 contracts [3]. 3. Inventory Data - From January 5 to January 6, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 97,704 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 13.16% to 581,436 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased slightly (0.00%) to 36,403,452 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.06% to 449,521,788 ounces [3]. 4. Other Market Data - From January 5 to January 6, the US dollar index decreased by 0.08%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.02, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.29% to 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.48% to 4.17%, VIX increased by 2.69% to 14.90, the S&P 500 increased by 0.64% to 6,902.05, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 1.78% to 58.35 [5].

此外，在去美元化的趋势下，全球央行仍是黄金的坚定买方。即使在连续3年的显著增持后，央行持有的黄金数量和历 史上重要的地缘政治转折点相比仍然偏低。据世界银行数据，2024年全球央行储备中黄金储备占比约为22%，这一比 例相较1990年冷战末期、1980年滞涨末期仍处于较低水平。而根据世界黄金协会2025年对央行的调查数据，76%的受 访者表示未来5年黄金占比将温和上升，这一比例高于此前3年的调查结果。 南美局势升温提升全球秩序的不确定性，黄金的避险属性在短期或将继续凸显；从中长期来看，流动性宽松和去美元 化仍然构成金价的关键支撑因素。我们看好黄金长期的配置价值，建议投资者关注黄金基金ETF（518800）等产品， 可以考虑在阶段性回调时布局以摊低成本。 美东时间1月3日，美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，成功抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人弗洛雷斯，并已将其空运至 纽约受审。美国总统特朗普在发布会上提及推动政权更迭、深度介入委内瑞拉石油产业等，并称美国将"管理"委内瑞 拉。 分析界普遍认为，特朗普正重拾"门罗主义"，国际秩序或重回"丛林法则"。在接受福克斯的采访时，特朗普称"美国在 西半球的统治地位再也不会受到质疑了" ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rebound, maintaining a bullish outlook with expectations of reaching new historical highs, despite potential gaps that need to be filled [1][3]. Market Performance - On January 6, gold opened at $4,448.62 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,427.94, and reached a high of $4,497.21, closing at $4,494.53, with a daily increase of $45.91, or 1.03% [1]. - The market remains supported by buying interest above short-term moving averages and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. military actions in Venezuela and potential Fed rate cuts [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes U.S. ADP employment numbers, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, global supply chain pressure index, and factory orders [3]. - The overall expectation for these indicators is favorable for gold prices, with a focus on maintaining a bullish stance [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are strong, recovering most of the previous month's losses and potentially opening up a new bull market with expected gains of over 30%, targeting $5,500 to $6,000 [5]. - Weekly analysis shows a potential for a pullback to support levels around $4,000 to $3,900 if the price fails to maintain above key trend lines [7]. Trading Strategy - The prevailing trading strategy is to maintain a bullish outlook, with a focus on buying during dips, as the market shows a tendency to rebound from lower levels [9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,430 and $4,385, while resistance levels are at $4,515 and $4,550 [9].

编辑：王一帆 避险需求仍在上升，推动国际金价和银价周二（6日）继续走高。其中，纽约商品交易所3月交割的白银 期货价格收盘突破80美元整数关口，报每盎司81.039美元，较前一个交易日上涨5.72%。纽商所2月交割 的黄金期货价格报收于每盎司4496.10美元，较前一个交易日上涨1%。（总台央视记者 张曼曼） ...

受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格2025年底均创 历史新高。2025年，国际金价累计涨幅超过70%。金价狂飙的背后，以美元为中心的国际货币体系正在 动摇，美元信用正在削弱，此外还有AI产业推进带来的需求。本报邀请中国现代国际关系研究院研究 员陈凤英和中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲进行解读。 让人想起"尼克松冲击" 2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的4500美元/盎 司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录 【观察】 在多重因素推动下，国际金价在2025年屡创新高，尤其年底更是频频刷新纪录，全年累计涨幅约七成， 创下自1979年以来最强的年度表现。 国际黄金的首轮牛市始于美国前总统尼克松放弃金本位制并瓦解布雷顿森林货币体系之时。随着尼克松 政府着手扩大美国联邦赤字，通胀率飙升，再叠加两次石油价格冲击的影响，黄金价格从1971年8月的 每盎司35美元一路冲高，于1980年1月触及每盎司835美元的峰值。 "乱世黄金"再次得到验证 "乱世"不一定是战争，也可以是无序。世界正处于百年未有之大变局，也是大乱局，变 ...