Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant reduction in inflation concerns among American consumers, attributed to President Trump's retraction of aggressive tariff proposals [1] - The consumer inflation expectations for the next year have dropped to 3.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from April, while three-year expectations fell to 3% and five-year expectations slightly decreased to 2.6% [1] - The New York Fed's survey provides a more stable perspective on inflation expectations compared to other surveys, reflecting a positive shift in consumer sentiment [1] Group 2 - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that inflation has seen its most significant decline in four years, contrary to mainstream beliefs, while tariff revenues are increasing [2] - The preferred core inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, recorded a low of 2.1% in April, with the core PCE at 2.5%, indicating a long-term trend [2] - Consumer expectations for most price categories have decreased, with the anticipated rise in food prices at 5.5%, while gasoline price expectations slowed to 2.7% [2]

Core Insights - The New York Fed's inflation expectations for May unexpectedly decreased, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - However, medium-term inflation expectations remain highly uncertain, with a three-year inflation expectation at 3% (down from 3.2%) and a five-year expectation at 2.6% (down from 2.7%) [1]

纽约联储：5月，消费者预计三年后通胀率为3%，低于四月的3.2%； 五年期通胀预期降低至2.6%，前 值2.7%。 ...

金十数据6月9日讯，纽约联储在最新调查中发现，消费者预计对未来一年的通胀预期低于一个月前。 5 月份的消费者预期调查显示1年通胀预期为3.2%，较一个月前下降0.4个百分点。三年通胀预期从4月份 的3.2%降至3%。五年通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。此前，特朗普政府取消了4月初实施的部分高额关 税。与此同时，美国截至今年4月的CPI进一步降至2.3%。 纽约联储调查显示通胀预期下降 ...

美国5月纽约联储1年通胀预期 3.2%，前值3.63%。 ...

美国5月纽约联储1年通胀预期将于十分钟后公布。 ...

周一（6月9日）汇市简况：欧元兑美元吸引了一些逢低买盘，欧洲时段涨幅扩大至1.1450附近；受美元 走弱推动，英镑兑美元欧洲时段在1.3550上方获得牵引力；日元维持日内小幅涨幅，加之美元整体走 弱，拖累美元兑日元跌至144.20区域，或近一小时内的新日低；澳元兑美元小幅走高，收复了前一交易 日的失地；纽元兑美元收复了前一交易日的近期跌幅，亚洲时段在0.6040附近交投；美元兑加元回落前 一交易日涨幅，亚洲时段在1.3680附近交投。日内晚间22:00美国4月批发销售月率。 非美主要货币： 1.欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼：对本周的利率决定持不同意见。目前的名义中性利率约为3%。 今日汇市要闻盘点： 美元： 1.美国5月新增非农就业人数略好于预期，前两月数据大幅下修；失业率稳定，平均时薪好于预期；美 联储降息押注减少。 2.美联储哈玛克：呼吁保持耐心，目前尚非采取先发制人措施的时机。 3.美联储理事鲍曼：美联储应该提议改变对大型银行的监管评级。银行监管机构将在不久的将来公布建 议，以完善提高补充杠杆率。 4.美联储传声筒：放大看，美国失业率其实在走高；对美联储而言，较慢的就业增长可能并不预示经济 疲软。 5.美联储任 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：非农数据超预期，降息预期降温，贸易消息提振，金价震荡回落；美国 三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数涨0.47%报99.20，离岸 人民币贬值报7.18854；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨11.11个基点报 4.506%；COMEX黄金期货跌1.31%报3331美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.24，现货779.7，基差-3.54，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加600千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework evaluation in 2025 includes summarizing lessons from the past five years, discussing improvements in communication methods, and assessing the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework [1][2][10] - The "Consensus Statement" established in 2012 set a 2% inflation target and has remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate [2][9] - The need for periodic updates to the monetary policy framework is highlighted, as economic structures evolve over time, necessitating adjustments in strategies, tools, and communication methods [2][3] Group 2 - The transition from "average inflation targeting" back to "traditional inflation targeting" is discussed, with the recognition that regular evaluations of economic structural changes are essential [3][6] - The experience of living in a "new normal" characterized by low rates and low inflation since the 2008 financial crisis is noted, with the federal funds rate being stuck at the zero lower bound for an extended period [4][5] - The importance of anchoring inflation expectations at an appropriate low level is emphasized, as it plays a crucial role in maintaining price stability while achieving full employment [9][10] Group 3 - The Fed plans to complete the review of the "Consensus Statement" revisions in the coming months, focusing on the 2020 updates and the latest economic understanding [10][11] - There is a consensus among participants regarding the expression of "employment shortfall," indicating a shift in focus from merely preventing inflation to assessing employment conditions [5][10] - The need for improved communication regarding predictions, uncertainties, and risks is acknowledged, with an emphasis on the importance of effective communication in complex economic environments [11]

相关链接 ① 待定 何立峰于访问英国并举行中美经贸磋商机制会议 ② 待定 中国5月贸易帐 ③ 07:50 日本4月贸易帐 ④ 09:30 中国5月CPI年率 ⑤ 22:00 美国4月批发销售月率 ⑥ 23:00 美国5月纽约联储1年通胀预期 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年6月9日 周一 ...