Economic Growth - Chengdu's industrial added value for the first four months of the year increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with collective enterprises growing by 24.9% and joint-stock enterprises by 6.0% [1] - Among 37 major industries, 25 reported growth, with the automotive manufacturing sector growing by 27.4%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing by 18.8%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 11.8% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Chengdu (excluding rural households) rose by 7.9% year-on-year, with private investment increasing by 10.6% [1] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 16.6%, while the secondary industry saw a significant increase of 72.8%, with industrial investment specifically rising by 74.2% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Chengdu reached 364.46 billion yuan, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase [1] - Urban retail sales amounted to 320.46 billion yuan, growing by 6.1%, while rural retail sales reached 44 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.4% [1] Consumption Breakdown - Restaurant revenue was 44.93 billion yuan, up by 4.5%, while commodity retail sales were 319.53 billion yuan, increasing by 6.4% [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included telecommunications equipment at 125.0%, gold and silver jewelry at 19.7%, and home appliances and audio-visual equipment at 19.1% [2] Foreign Trade - Chengdu's total foreign trade import and export volume reached 275.98 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase [2] - Exports totaled 161.08 billion yuan, growing by 11.9%, while imports were 114.9 billion yuan, increasing by 10.1% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy in April maintained resilience, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [1][3] - After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping, and after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, it is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate again in the short - to - medium term [3] - The 90 - day window period reached in the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain [3] - The prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate horizontally on Thursday, and the short - term of treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated slightly downward in the morning session, and showed horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.04%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.57% (unchanged from the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.26 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.02 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 0.86 BP to 1.72%, and the 30 - year rose 0.20 BP to 1.89% [1] - Eurozone: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49.0); the preliminary value of the service PMI in May was 48.9, the lowest level since January 2024 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1) [1] - US: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.8) [1] Market Logic - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation 4.3%, 4.2% from January to March). In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation 5.5%, 5.9% in March). In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms (market expectation 5.2%, 6.5% year - on - year in the first quarter) [1] - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market forecast 2.0%, 12.4% in March). In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (11.55% in March), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% year - on - year (9.09% in March). Due to the impact of tariffs, China's exports to the US decreased significantly in April, while exports to ASEAN accelerated, possibly due to re - export factors [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - oriented investments, conduct band operations. [3]

Core Insights - Chengdu's industrial added value for the first four months of 2025 increased by 8.1% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Chengdu grew by 7.9% year-on-year, with private investment rising by 10.6% [1] - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 275.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [1] - Exports totaled 161.08 billion yuan, marking an increase of 11.9%, while imports amounted to 114.9 billion yuan, up by 10.1% [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelter profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm is increasing, and overall production will continue to increase. Currently, the import window is closed, but previously imported zinc is gradually flowing in. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up, but recently the zinc price has rebounded, the downstream's atmosphere of purchasing on dips has weakened, the domestic social inventory has increased slightly, and overseas inventory continues to decline. The terminal real - estate sector has marginally improved but still drags down demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance [3]. - Technically, trading volume has shrunk. Pay attention to the support at 22,000. It is expected that the zinc price will mainly fluctuate within a range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc is 22,580 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 145; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,724.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,378 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2,483. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,240 lots, a month - on - month increase of 1,723. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 126. The SHFE inventory is 46,351 tons (weekly), a month - on - month decrease of 751. The LME inventory is 156,725 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,075 [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 490. The basis of the main ZN contract is 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 29.83 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.94. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,580 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104,100 tons. ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. ILZSG: The global monthly zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic monthly refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons. The monthly zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 266.83 tons. The weekly zinc social inventory is 66,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 63.8246 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 42.9606 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 454,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 6. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 16.62% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 16.62% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.98% (daily), a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.71% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - From January to April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 27 fixed - asset investment projects, with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan. Driven by the "Two New" policies, as of May 5th, the sales volume of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products was approximately 830 billion yuan. China will revise and expand the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment" and formulate policies to encourage foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China. - The NDRC stated that most policies to stabilize employment and the economy will be implemented by the end of June. At the same time, it will adhere to the normalized and open - ended policy pre - research and reserve, continuously improve the policy toolkit for stabilizing employment and the economy, and ensure timely implementation when necessary. - Fed's Mousalem said that the high uncertainty is prompting households and businesses to suspend spending and investment. If this situation continues, it will lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth. Fed's Jefferson will treat Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data for policy - making and expressed vigilance against rising inflationary pressures. Bostic said that the US economic growth this year may be between 0.5% and 1%. Domestically, on May 20th, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the LPR over 5 years was 3.5%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period, the first reduction in 7 months [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the tin price will fluctuate within a range and move upward. It suggests a short - term bullish trading strategy within the range of 263,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract is 267,730 yuan/ton, up 2,970 yuan; the 6 - 7 month contract closing price is - 50 yuan, down 30 yuan - The LME 3 - month tin price is 32,960 dollars/ton, up 61 dollars - The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 29,203 lots, up 3,392 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures is 465 lots, up 649 lots - The LME tin total inventory is 2,655 tons, down 85 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 8,417 tons, down 302 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 8,070 tons, up 45 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 268,400 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,640 yuan/ton, up 3,760 yuan - The Shanghai tin main contract basis is 670 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 35.15 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 174,350 yuan/ton, up 2,150 yuan - The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tinplate is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - From January to April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 27 fixed - asset investment projects with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan. From January to May 5, the sales of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products were about 830 billion yuan. China will revise and expand the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" and formulate policies to encourage foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China - Most policies to stabilize employment and the economy will be implemented by the end of June, and policy pre - research and reserve will be carried out regularly - Internationally, the Fed will treat Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data, and there are concerns about rising inflation pressure. Domestically, on May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both down 10 basis points [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to be released in late June - Yunnan faces raw material pressure, and Jiangxi is still restricted by scrap supply. The combined operating rate of local refined tin smelting enterprises is 57.16% - The orders of solder processing enterprises are stable after the holiday, the operating rate of tinplate enterprises is stable, but the terminal consumption is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. There are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction at home and abroad [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and price indicates strong bulls, and the price has stood above the MA60 [3]

Economic Overview - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index also showed positive growth, rising by 6.0% year-on-year in April[2] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April, down from 5.9% in the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in consumer spending[3] - Major categories like home appliances and cultural office supplies saw double-digit growth, contributing significantly to retail sales performance[3][20] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, slightly below market expectations[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8%, while manufacturing investment rose by 8.8%, but real estate development investment fell by 10.3%[4] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting stable employment conditions[5] Policy Implications - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis points interest rate reduction[1] - The government is focusing on implementing more proactive fiscal policies to support economic recovery, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors[47]

本文全文共 2605 字，阅读全文约 8 分钟 2025年4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1% 2025年1—4月份全国固定资产投资增长4.0% 2025年4月份规模以上工业增加值增长6.1% 2025年4月份能源生产情况 2025年4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1% 4月份，社会消费品零售总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额33548亿元，增长5.6% 。1—4月份，社会消费品零售总额161845亿 元，增长4.7%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额147005亿元，增长5.2% 。 点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 按经营单位所在地分，4月份，城镇消费品零售额32376亿元，同比增长5.2%；乡村消费品零售额4798亿元，增长4.7%。1—4月份，城镇消费品零售额140433亿 元，增长4.7%；乡村消费品零售额21412亿元，增长4.8%。 按消费类型分，4月份，商品零售额33007亿元，同比增长5.1%；餐饮收入4167亿元，增长5.2%。1—4月份，商品零售额143651亿元，增长4.7%；餐饮收入 18194亿元，增长4.8%。 按零售业态分，1—4月份，限额以上 ...

Group 1: Industrial Growth - Sichuan's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to April, with state-owned enterprises growing by 8.1% and joint-stock enterprises by 6.4% [1] - Among 41 major industries, 35 experienced growth, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (22.3%), chemical raw materials and products (20.0%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (15.0%) [1] - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (9.4%), electricity generation (4.1%), and significant growth in smartwatches (92.7%), generators (73.1%), and lithium-ion batteries (66.7%) [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Sichuan grew by 3.2% year-on-year from January to April, with the primary industry seeing a 20.5% increase and the secondary industry growing by 15.7% [1] - Industrial investment specifically rose by 15.9% during the same period [1] Group 3: Consumer Retail - Sichuan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 928.59 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% year-on-year increase [2] - Urban retail sales accounted for 753.51 billion yuan (5.2% growth), while rural retail sales were 175.07 billion yuan (5.9% growth) [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included communication equipment (79.2%), household appliances (16.4%), and food products (13.0%) [2]

今天上午10时，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会。记者了解到，今年1—4月份，国家发展改革委共审 批核准固定资产投资项目27个，总投资5737亿元，主要集中在能源、农林水利、高技术等领域。其中4 月份，审批核准固定资产投资项目8个，总投资3771亿元。（央视新闻） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is under pressure at the upper level [1] - China's social retail sales growth slowed down in April, industrial added - value increased, fixed - asset investment had a low overall growth rate, and real estate showed a pull - back feature [2] - The zinc trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,455 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,686 dollars/ton, down 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 126,096 lots, an increase of 7,907 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 5,141 lots, a decrease of 872 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 85,560 lots, a decrease of 8,786 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 223,679 lots, a decrease of 4,336 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 230 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 16.15 dollars/ton, up 10.85 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1,701 tons, a decrease of 474 tons; LME zinc inventory was 160,800 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,240 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - China's social retail sales in April increased by 5.1% year - on - year, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1%, the fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4%, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [2]