交易员完全预计美联储将在7月降息，而此前预期为6月。 ...

她阐述称，实施降息必须建立在充分信心的基础之上。一方面，决策者需要确信通胀确实处于持续下行的轨道。尽管美联储首选的通胀指标在去年徘徊于百 分之三左右，仍高于百分之二的政策目标，但许多分析预测商品通胀压力有望在今年年中缓解。另一方面，降息还需要基于对劳动力市场面临挑战的深切担 忧，且这些挑战可能比当前表面数据所揭示的更为严峻。 旧金山联邦储备银行总裁玛丽·戴利近日公开表示，鉴于美国劳动力市场呈现疲软迹象，美联储未来可能有必要进行一到两次额外的降息。她指出，当前工 人们正面临实际工资被物价上涨侵蚀以及新就业机会稀缺的双重压力。 戴利是在美联储公开市场委上周决定将基准利率维持在百分之三点五至三点七五区间后首次接受媒体访问。她明确支持这一维持利率不变的决定，但同时强 调，在利率政策上必须保持"非常开放的心态"。她认为，存在支持进一步降息的合理理由，但采取行动前需要满足明确的条件。 布米普特拉北京投资基金分析师认为，戴利个人倾向于支持进一步降低利率，至于具体是一次还是两次，她表示难以断言。作为今年联邦公开市场委的无投 票权成员，戴利仍将参与所有的定期政策讨论，其观点反映了美联储内部对经济平衡风险的持续评估。 目前美国失 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that investors are anticipating at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by 2026, as per the CME Group's FedWatch tool [1][2] - Spot gold prices have risen above $5100 per ounce for the first time since January 30, with a daily increase of 1.54%, attributed to a weaker dollar [1] - The dollar index has decreased by 0.22% to 96.586, reaching a near two-week low, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers [1] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen to a near one-month low, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thus supporting the rise in gold prices [1] - The market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. employment data, with expectations of a 70,000 increase in jobs for January and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4% [1] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo suggests that the anticipated slowdown in U.S. employment growth will reinforce expectations for continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, further supporting gold prices [2]

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：刘明亮 延迟发布的美国1月就业报告出炉前，美国国债小幅走高；该数据可能强化市场对今年更大幅度降息的 预期。 受美国零售销售意外疲软、以及市场认为今日非农就业数据可能低于预期等因素影响，美债收益率跌至 数周来最低水平。周一，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，未来数月美国就业数据预计会较 低。 周三，10年期美债收益率下跌1个基点至4.13%，为五周最低。对货币政策更敏感的2年期收益率也小幅 走低至3.45%。 Insight Investment北美固定收益主管Brendan Murphy表示："劳动力市场似乎是利率路径的关键。" Murphy补充称，尽管美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已提到劳动力市场出现企稳迹象，但美国政府停摆以及 持续的政治风险意味着，美联储很可能"会对劳动力市场进一步恶化的任何额外迹象作出反应"。 货币市场预计美联储到年底将降息59个基点，相当于两次降息25个基点，第三次降息的概率约为三分之 一。 货币市场预计美联储到年底将降息59个基点，相当于两次降息25个基点，第三次降息的概率约为三分之 一。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责 ...

美联储将在现任主席鲍威尔任期结束前维持基准利率不变，但在其继任者上任后立即降息。路透调查显 示，经济学家预计美联储将按兵不动至5月，并在6月鲍威尔离任后实施降息。这一预期反映出市场对政 策连续性的判断，以及对新旧领导层风格差异的预期。 超过70%的受访经济学家表达了对美联储独立性严重受损的担忧。特朗普总统上月提名凯文·沃什接任 美联储主席，而特朗普此前曾多次批评鲍威尔未能快速降息。经济学家对沃什政策立场的判断出现分 歧，其早期言论倾向紧缩政策，但近期关于人工智能驱动生产率增长具有反通胀效应的表态，则暗示其 可能倾向降息。 近60%的经济学家预计，到第二季度末利率将降至3.25%-3.50%区间，年内首次降息最可能发生在6 月。上月调查中，经济学家对届时利率水平尚未形成共识。 美国银行美国经济学家Stephen Juneau表示： "美联储今年将在沃什领导下降息两次，但这不一定基于明确的经济论据。如果美联储继续 降息，这些降息将发生在财政政策比去年更具扩张性的时期。这可能导致政策过度。" 经济增长预期上调 调查显示，美国经济增长在2025年第四季度放缓至经季节调整后年化2.9%，低于第三季度的4.4%。经 济学 ...

格隆汇2月11日｜Investinglive分析师Justin Low表示，所有目光都聚焦于非农就业数据，市场参与者正 静候消息以做出反应。而目前，交易员预期美联储今年将累计降息约60个基点，且已定价6月会议将实 施下一次25个基点降息。昨日呈现的疲软消费者图景自然强化了这一预期定价。若今日非农就业数据表 现强劲且失业率企稳，则表明美联储可能会在更长时间内维持利率不变。乐观情形下，这可能会显著降 低上半年降息的风险。但鉴于昨日美国消费者数据传递出的喜忧参半的信号，现在完全排除6月或7月进 一步降息的可能性还为时过早。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Market Overview - Gold and silver prices experienced a sudden surge, with spot gold reaching $5,100 per ounce, marking a 1.54% increase, and spot silver rising by 6% to $85.57 per ounce [1] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which was delayed due to a government shutdown [2] Economic Data Impact - The delayed non-farm payroll report is expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate policies, with a weak report potentially leading to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices, while a strong report could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices [2] - Current market expectations suggest a median increase of 70,000 jobs for January, slightly above December's 50,000, although some economists predict lower actual numbers [2] Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The preliminary consumer confidence index for February stands at 57.3, showing a slight increase but remaining at historical lows, while inflation expectations for the next year have dropped to 3.5% [3] - The Federal Reserve may have significant policy space, with potential for a prolonged easing cycle, which could support gold prices [3] Banking Sector Update - China’s Bank announced changes to its gold accumulation product, increasing the minimum purchase amount from 950 yuan to 1,200 yuan, effective February 12, 2026 [3]

Group 1 - Global economic conditions remain divergent, with the Eurozone and Japan expected to see economic improvements in Q4 due to stable internal demand and recovering exports, while the US economy is projected to slow down due to a cooling labor market and declining investment growth [1] - The US labor market is showing signs of cooling, with GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 recorded at -0.6%, 3.8%, and 4.3%, respectively, influenced by significant fluctuations in net exports [3] - The US inflation rate unexpectedly dropped from 3% in September to 2.7% in November, exceeding market expectations and leading to increased market anticipation for interest rate cuts [6] Group 2 - The US dollar index is expected to experience a short-term rebound in early 2026, but the overall trend may remain volatile due to mixed market sentiments and the impact of US economic data [9][10] - The Euro is anticipated to maintain a high-level fluctuation in early 2026, supported by a narrowing interest rate differential with the US and potential geopolitical events affecting market stability [13] - The Japanese yen is likely to remain within an upward channel, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and market risk sentiment [15] Group 3 - The Malaysian ringgit is projected to appreciate against the US dollar, supported by stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate, despite a slight decline in trade surplus [22][23] - The South African rand is expected to show a "strong oscillation" pattern in 2026, driven by internal economic improvements and external factors such as US interest rate cuts and commodity price increases [46][47]

本周国际金价突破5000美元/盎司大关并暂时站稳高位，一份"迟到"的非农数据即将揭晓，成为压制市 场风险偏好的关键变量。 国际金价再次突破关键阻力位，重回5000美元/盎司大关。 截至2月11日，伦敦金现报5064美元/盎司，盘中最高触及5069美元/盎司；伦敦银现日内大涨5%，报 84.7美元/盎司。 然而，价格突破并未激发市场追涨热情。交易人士对记者称，当前国际金价在5000美元关键关口徘徊， 市场呈现明显分化态势：中长期资金持续流入，各国央行连续增持黄金储备，机构普遍看好全年走势； 但短期投机资金趋于谨慎，交易员并未因价格突破而大举建立多头头寸，多空双方均不敢轻举妄动，市 场观望情绪浓厚。 宏观层面，美国非农数据即将揭晓，成为压制市场风险偏好的关键变量。该报告不仅因政府停摆推迟发 布，更包含年度基准修正，可能大幅下修此前公布的就业数据。对于国内投资者而言，春节长假临近， 国内休市期间国际市场正常交易，汇率波动与地缘风险叠加，令持仓过节与减仓观望的抉择更添复杂 性。 黄金在5000美元高位徘徊 在经历了上周的大起大落后，国际金价本周在5000美元关键价位横盘震荡。 目前，是美国重磅经济数据的窗口期，美国非 ...