一、政策迷雾中的市场困局 最近鲍威尔在欧洲央行论坛上的表态，让全球市场为之一振。这位美联储掌门人暗示年内可能降息，但具体时点却要"看数据"。这种模棱两可的表态， 像极了我们A股市场的走势——看似有方向，实则充满变数。 特朗普的关税大棒、美联储的独立性之争、经济数据的反复无常...这些宏观因素交织在一起，构成了当前市场的"政策迷雾"。大资金们在这种环境下如 履薄冰，既不敢大举进攻，又不愿轻易撤退。于是我们看到指数在狭小空间里反复震荡，个股则上演着"今天涨停明天跌停"的戏码。 二、散户的两难困境 其实股价波动只是表象，背后是机构资金的博弈游戏。传统技术分析告诉我们：洗盘是短暂下跌后快速反弹，出货则是持续阴跌。但问题是，等你能用 肉眼确认时，往往已经错过最佳时机。 这时候就需要借助量化工具来透视市场本质。通过大数据分析交易行为特征，我们可以把模糊的市场语言翻译成清晰的交易信号。 在这样的市场里，散户往往陷入两难：要么被短期波动吓得提前出局，错过后续行情；要么死扛到底，结果发现扛错了对象。就像去年"9.24行情"前， 多少人嘲笑"国家队"越买越亏，结果行情启动时早已被震出局外。 看看这张走势图，是不是似曾相识？股价在 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，澳大利亚5月份零售额增幅低于预期，促使交易员更加坚定了澳洲联储最快将于下 周降息的预期。澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，5月份零售销售增长0.2%，高于上月的持平，但 低于0.5%的预期增幅。此前的一系列报告显示，从物价压力缓解到出人意料的失业和谨慎的消费者情 绪，经济势头正在减弱，这加强了澳洲联储进一步降息的理由。交易员完全消化了今年还有三次降息的 预期，且最快将在下周二降息。 澳大利亚零售销售低于预期，增加降息可能性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Continuing to surge [2]. - Copper: Strong spot prices support the price [2]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are under pressure [2]. - Lead: Seasonal peak expectations support the price [2]. - Tin: The macro - environment drives the price up [2]. - Nickel: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2]. - Stainless steel: Inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 773.90 with a daily increase of 1.10%, and the night - session closing price was 776.10 with a night - session increase of 1.47%. Comex Gold 2508 closed at 3315.00 with a 0.88% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - **ETF and Inventory**: SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 2 to 952.53. Shanghai Gold's inventory increased by 216 to 18,453 kg, while Comex Gold's inventory (in ounces) decreased by 135 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak bearish trend [8]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8810 with a 0.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8810.00 with a 1.11% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - **ETF and Inventory**: SLV Silver ETF's holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 42 to 14,869.01. Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 39088 to 1,338,844 kg, and Comex Silver's inventory (in ounces) increased by 604,393 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 80,640 with a 0.96% increase, and the night - session closing price was 80390 with a - 0.31% change. Trading volumes of some contracts increased compared to the previous day [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai Copper's inventory decreased by 1,078 to 24,773 tons, and LME Copper's inventory increased by 625 to 91,250 tons. Some spreads changed compared to the previous day [10]. - **News**: The US 6 - month ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract. China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Some mining and smelting projects have new developments [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22255 with a - 1.07% change. Trading volumes of some contracts changed compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai Zinc's inventory decreased by 253 to 6824 tons, and LME Zinc's inventory decreased by 2575 to 114900 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [13]. - **News**: The 6000t/d lead - zinc mine expansion project in Guangxi started [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak bearish trend [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17100 with a - 0.58% change. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai Lead's inventory increased by 101 to 46389 tons, and LME Lead's inventory decreased by 1850 to 270075 tons. Some spreads and import profits changed [16]. - **News**: The 6000t/d lead - zinc mine expansion project in Guangxi started [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 269,840 with a 0.65% increase, and the night - session closing price was 269840 with a 0.63% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai Tin's inventory increased by 16 to 6,766 tons, and LME Tin's inventory increased by 45 to 2,220 tons. Some spot prices and spreads changed [20]. - **News**: Multiple macro - level news events, such as EU - US tariff negotiations and China's PMI data [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,720, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 12,560. Trading volumes of both decreased compared to the previous day [23]. - **Industry Chain Data**: Various prices in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chain, such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate, and stainless - steel products, changed compared to different time points [23]. - **News**: There were developments in nickel - related projects in Canada, Indonesia, including production start - ups, resumptions, and potential export restrictions [23][24][25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

Group 1 - Asian stock markets may struggle to achieve seasonal gains in July due to concerns over tariffs and macroeconomic conditions, with the average return for July over the past decade being 1.36% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the US is a significant barrier to maintaining past performance, as highlighted by Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer [1] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has risen for three consecutive months as of June, but the reinstatement of higher tariffs could lead to a sharp decline in the stock market [1] Group 2 - The third quarter presents potential risks, including higher inflation and growth slowdown, with skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts [2] - If tariff outcomes are milder than expected and the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, it could encourage capital inflows into Asian markets [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has increased by 12% year-to-date, outperforming the US market, although Southeast Asian countries face significant pressure from tariff impacts [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline of the US dollar, which has led to a strong rebound in gold prices, marking a potential new trend in the market [1][3]. - The US dollar index has experienced its worst start in 50 years, dropping over 10% in the first half of 2025, while gold has surged by 5.5% in the second quarter, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven [3][5]. - The upcoming ADP and non-farm payroll data are expected to further influence gold prices, with historical data suggesting that lower non-farm payroll numbers could lead to substantial gains in gold [1][3]. Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including expansive fiscal policies leading to increased national debt and concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal health [7]. - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves by 30% year-on-year, providing structural support for gold prices amid rising demand [7]. - Market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also driving gold prices higher, with predictions of multiple rate cuts in the coming year [7]. Group 3 - The second quarter's performance of gold, with a 5.5% increase, breaks the typical seasonal volatility patterns, reflecting strong market reactions to global economic uncertainties and the weakening dollar [5][6]. - The investment strategies that contributed to gold's performance include geopolitical tensions, interest rate cut bets, and opportunistic trading in response to the dollar's decline [4]. - Historical data indicates that significant economic data releases can lead to notable price fluctuations in gold, creating trading opportunities for investors [8].

商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪金2508 | 773.90 | 1.10% | 776.10 | 1.47% | | | 黄金T+D | 772.04 | 1.03% | 772.00 | 1.49% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3315.00 | 0.88% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3312.12 | 1.18% | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8810 | 0.55% | 8810.00 | 1.11% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 8805 | 0.88% | 8805 | 1.24% | | | Comex白银2508 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪金2508合约对2 ...

换资前言： 面对剧烈波动的市场行情，我们需要的是等待机会，一击而中，而不是在频繁的交易中迷失自己！合理 的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意进场，请 对自己的资金负责，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。经常 做错方向和进出场点位把控的不是很好，操作中亏损的朋友，可与晟富一起交流。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三（7月2日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3340美元/盎司附近。特朗普减税议案点燃 避险热潮，美联储降息预期再升温 ，黄金市场在2025年7月初迎来了新一轮的上涨热潮，现货黄金价格 周二飙升逾1%，触及6月24日以来的最高水平3357.82美元/盎司，收盘报3338.77美元/盎司，为连续两 个交易日上涨。这一涨势不仅受到美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案的推动，还与即将到 来的7月9日贸易关税暂停期限、全球储备货币格局的讨论以及美联储货币政策的最新动向密切相关。日 内将可关注美国6月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)、美国6月ADP就业人数(万人)等数据，市场预期偏向利 空金价 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the "Goldilocks" market is returning, driven by dovish expectations and reduced risks [1] - The macro environment is characterized by moderate economic growth and inflation, allowing central banks to maintain accommodative policies [1][5] - Despite recent macro data underperforming expectations, the market's focus has shifted towards the benefits of easing expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Macro risks are diminishing, and earnings expectations are improving, with a positive consensus on earnings per share (EPS) revisions in the past month [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is crucial for validating market optimism, with expectations for a 4% EPS growth, significantly lower than Q1's 12% [2] - The implied correlation of stocks has been declining since April, indicating expectations for differentiated performance among individual stocks during earnings season [2] Group 3 - Labor market data to be released this Thursday is critical for maintaining the current positive momentum [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts non-farm payrolls at 85,000, below the market consensus of 113,000, which could reinforce easing expectations if the data disappoints [3] - The firm recommends investors adopt options hedging strategies and diversify their regional and style allocations during the summer [3][6] Group 4 - Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve have increased, with Goldman Sachs moving its next rate cut prediction to September and lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [5] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, particularly with easing tensions in the Middle East, which lowers the market's geopolitical risk premium [5] - Progress in U.S. trade negotiations, including the cancellation of "section 899," supports growth prospects [5] Group 5 - Recommendations for hedging against inflation include purchasing put options on U.S. high-yield bonds or credit default swaps (CDS) [6] - To hedge against a potential re-inflation rebound, the purchase of payer positions in interest rate swaps is advised [6] - Additional strategies include buying call options on European banking stocks and emerging market equities to mitigate reversal risks [6]

据新华社报道， 当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院以51票赞成、50票反对的表决结果通过"大而美"税 收与支出法案 。对经济状况更为敏感的道指收涨，在前一日创下新高的纳指、标普500指数走低。 金价油价反弹 当地时间7月1日，美股科技股遭到抛售，特斯拉股价盘中重挫逾7%，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真 实社交"上发帖，回应美国企业家马斯克对其力推的"大而美"减税及支出法案的抨击。 特斯拉盘中暴跌逾7% 当地时间7月1日，美股迎来下半年首个交易日，三大指数表现分化。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指 涨0.91%，纳指跌0.82%，标普500指数跌0.11%。 随着美国参议院通过"大而美"税收与支出法案，对经济较为敏感的道指走高，材料板块以及小盘股表现 亮眼；被视为经济晴雨表的道琼斯运输业平均指数（DJT）飙升2.85%，创下自5月12日以来的最大单日 涨幅。 在近期积累了一定涨幅后，美股科技股遭到抛售。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，万得美国科技七巨头指 数下跌1.18%，英伟达、Meta跌逾2%，微软跌逾1%，谷歌母公司Alphabet微跌；苹果涨1.29%、亚马逊 涨0.49%。 特斯拉盘中一度暴跌逾7%，收跌5 ...

2025年07月02日 | 黄金：降息预期升温 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：基本面偏承压 | 7 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：宏观环境带动上行 | 10 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 12 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：现货成交清淡，震荡偏弱运行 | 14 | | 工业硅：上游供应扰动增加，关注市场情绪 | 16 | | 多晶硅：市场消息持续扰动，关注上方空间 | 16 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 硅铁：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 锰硅：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 焦炭：下游环保减产扰动，震荡偏弱 | 23 | | 焦煤：下游环保减产扰动，震荡偏弱 | 23 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 25 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 对二甲苯：逢低正套 | 28 | | P ...