贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 贵金属狂飙，需系好安全带 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格加速上涨，不断刷新历史新高。在上周一 国际金价突破前期高点之后，贵金属普遍进入加速上涨阶 段。上周公布的美国经济数据整体偏强，虽然市场对于1 月降息预期较弱，但对于明年的降息预期仍达2-3次，整 体处于货币持续宽松的环境。日本在意外加息之后，继续 释放干预日元的信号，日元走强对美元形成一定的压制。 ⚫ 目前贵金属价格表现强势，除了美元指数维持弱势运行和 美联储独立性受损，将持续货币宽松为稀贵金属提供宏观 支撑之外，铂钯 ...

Group 1 - Commodity prices are surging, with silver contracts rising by 6% to 19,210.00 CNY and LME copper increasing over 5% to 12,785.33 USD/ton, both reaching historical highs [1] - The silver and copper sectors are experiencing significant gains, with companies like Hunan Silver and Jiangxi Copper leading the charge, while the non-ferrous mining ETF (招商 159690) sees net inflows [1] - The recent drop in the US CPI has opened up potential for interest rate cuts by 2026, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing, which has led to heightened market interest in industrial precious metals like silver and platinum [2] Group 2 - Chilean copper mines are facing strike expectations, which could exacerbate the tight supply situation in the copper market [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission is encouraging mergers among major copper smelting enterprises, which may stabilize the copper smelting sector [3] - The copper market is expected to shift from a tight balance to a shortage due to insufficient capital expenditure and frequent supply disruptions, with copper prices likely to rise as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [3] Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining ETF (招商 159690) closely tracks the non-ferrous mining index, investing in companies with substantial mineral resources, including Northern Rare Earth, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [3] - The non-ferrous mining index has seen a year-to-date increase of 103.55%, outperforming the non-ferrous metal industry index, which has risen by 93.94% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals prices, including gold and silver, is accompanied by significant risks of a forced sell-off as the new year approaches, which investors should be cautious about [1][21]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold has seen a nearly 70% increase over the year, reaching over $4,000 per ounce and setting over 50 new highs [3]. - Silver has experienced a remarkable rise of nearly 140%, with prices approaching $70 per ounce [3]. - Platinum has reached a 16-year high with an annual increase of nearly 130%, marking its best performance since records began in 1990 [5]. - Palladium has also surged to a near four-year high, with an annual increase exceeding 95% [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar's attractiveness, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like precious metals [7]. - Global geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions near Venezuela, have heightened the appeal of gold and silver as safe-haven investments [9]. - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has led to explosive trading volumes, further fueling market enthusiasm [9]. Group 3: Silver's Industrial Demand and Risks - Silver's price surge has significantly increased its cost share in solar panels, rising from a few percent to nearly 20%, posing challenges for solar companies [11]. - Companies are developing technologies to reduce silver usage, which could lead to a decrease in silver demand by 50 million to 60 million ounces in the coming years [13]. - The industrial demand for silver may become a hindrance to its price growth if companies continue to seek alternatives [13]. Group 4: Upcoming Forced Sell-off - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will require significant adjustments in January, leading to forced selling of gold and silver futures by large funds to rebalance their portfolios [15]. - This forced sell-off could result in a 9% pressure on silver and a 3% pressure on gold in the futures market [17]. Group 5: January Effect and Investor Caution - The historical "January Effect," where gold typically performs well, may be challenged this year due to the anticipated forced sell-off [19]. - Investors should remain cautious and not solely focus on the attractive price increases, as underlying risks could lead to market volatility [21].

2025.12.28 本文字数：2279，阅读时长大约4分钟 针对新一轮贵金属大涨行情，南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经分析称，美联储重 启降息并技术性扩表，贸易关税政策加剧去美元化，美国财政可持续性危机削弱美元信用。投资需求取 代央行购金成为主导力量，进一步推升价格。 "白银市场则出现结构性挤兑，全球库存'拆东墙补西墙'，叠加工业刚性需求与期货交割量井喷导致现 货溢价飙升。"夏莹莹进一步分析称。 金银价格再刷高，交易所提保扩板抑投机 2025年以来，黄金领涨贵金属市场，白银后来居上。 作者 |第一财经 齐琦 2025年的交易临近收官，全球贵金属市场再度迎来历史性行情。 12月26日，国际金银价格同步创下历史新高，其中伦敦金现货最高触及4549.9美元/盎司；白银表现更 为迅猛，盘中最高触及79.4美元/盎司，年内涨幅超174%。 这场席卷全球的贵金属盛宴，由多重因素支撑。 贵金属市场全年的行情先后经历关税驱动、震荡调整、降息预期主导以及技术回调几个主要阶段，就在 市场认为行情将在高位震荡收官之际，新一轮涨势再起，并再创历史新高。 12月26日，伦敦金现货价格突破4500美元/盎司整数关口。截 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable spring market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the metals sector, with significant price increases across various metals, particularly copper, which saw an 8.15% increase week-on-week. The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the broader market indices [4][10]. - The report suggests that the recent trends in monetary policy, including expectations of interest rate cuts, will support the upward movement of metal prices, particularly gold and silver, which are expected to attract more investment [4][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics in the metals market, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [4][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.53%. The non-ferrous metals index surged by 6.43%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.48 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 93.94%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 by 75.59 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw notable price changes, with copper prices increasing by 2.37% week-on-week. Gold prices rose by 4.42%, and silver prices surged by 18.22% [4][16]. - Lithium prices also experienced significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15.38% [4][20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is under pressure, with domestic social inventory increasing to 194,000 tons, while demand remains stable with operating rates for copper products around 60% [33]. - The aluminum sector is facing a tightening supply-demand balance, with domestic aluminum production showing a slight increase, but downstream processing rates declining [48]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and favorable positioning in the current market environment, such as Zijin Mining, Yunnan Tin, and China Molybdenum [21][22]. - Specific companies in the precious metals sector, such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold, are highlighted for their potential to benefit from rising gold prices [4][24].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has reached a historical high due to a combination of interest rate cut expectations and increased geopolitical risk, continuing its bull market trend while cautioning against potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, gold has outperformed global assets, with an overall increase of over 100% since breaking through a long-term bottom in 2024, and a year-to-date rise exceeding 65% [1] - On December 26, gold prices surged to a new historical high of 4540, closing at 4533.34, marking a daily increase of 1.19% and a weekly gain of 4.49% [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are firmly positioned at the upper boundary of an upward channel, with the 5-day moving average providing strong support, indicating short-term upward momentum [3] - Key resistance is noted at 4550; failure to break this level may trigger a technical adjustment, while 4500 serves as a critical support level for bulls [3] - The 4-hour chart shows a bullish trend with strong support between 4495-4500, and a breakthrough above 4550 could initiate a new upward phase [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates a narrow range of price movement around 4520-4540, with a slight bullish signal from MACD, suggesting that short-term strategies should focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3]

Market Overview - The US dollar index has shown a weak performance, dropping below the 98 mark, reflecting market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. As of the report, the index stands at 97.93 [1] - Precious metals have been the standout performers this week, with gold reaching a historical high of over $4530 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70%. Silver also surged, breaking the $75 per ounce barrier [1] - Non-US currencies, particularly the euro, pound, and Australian dollar, have strengthened against the US dollar due to its weakness, while the Japanese yen has shown signs of intervention [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market has continued its upward trend, with the S&P 500 index reaching new closing highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, driven by strong performances in the chip and tech sectors, despite some volatility in individual stocks [2] Investment Bank Insights - Barclays has raised its GDP growth forecast for the US in Q4. BlackRock believes that the Fed's rate cuts in 2026 may be limited. Mitsubishi UFJ predicts further weakening of the dollar by 2026. Societe Generale notes that the yen's recovery may be limited, while Morgan Stanley suggests the Bank of Japan may continue to raise rates [5] - UBS warns that FOMO and bubble anxiety may lead to increased volatility in the stock market in 2026 [6] Major Events - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with gold maintaining high levels and silver breaking through key price points. The surge is attributed to central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and geopolitical uncertainties [7] - The National Investment Silver LOF experienced a dramatic reversal, going from consecutive gains to a sharp decline due to high premiums and market corrections [8] - The US economy showed unexpected growth in Q3, with a 4.3% annualized increase, but economists warn that this growth may not be sustainable into Q4 due to potential government shutdowns [9][10] - The US has increased military presence in the Caribbean amid rising tensions in Venezuela, with plans for potential military action against the Maduro government [12][13] - Ukraine's President Zelensky has proposed a new peace plan with Russia, focusing on ceasefire and humanitarian issues, but key political status questions remain unresolved [14][15][16] - The People's Bank of China has introduced a one-time credit repair policy to assist individuals with overdue debts, aiming to improve their credit status [17] - Japan's 2026 fiscal budget has raised concerns about fiscal sustainability, with a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen, driven by social security costs and defense spending [18][19] Corporate Developments - Nvidia has secured a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Groq for chip technology, aiming to enhance its position in the AI chip market, with plans to deliver H200 chips to Chinese customers before the Lunar New Year [22] - The acquisition battle for Warner Bros. has intensified, with Oracle founder Larry Ellison personally backing a $40.4 billion offer from Paramount, increasing competition with Netflix [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in domestic gold prices, with the price per gram generally surpassing 1400 RMB, alongside a rise in platinum and palladium prices, prompting domestic exchanges to implement risk control measures. Analysts attribute this to factors such as easing inflation, expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could reach 4900 USD by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Recent retail gold prices in domestic stores have shown a notable decline, particularly in cities like Haikou and Shenzhen, where the price difference for the same gold purity can reach approximately 17 RMB per gram, leading to a potential price gap of over 500 RMB for a 30-gram gold ornament [1] - The lower gold prices in Shenzhen are primarily due to its proximity to a major gold distribution center, resulting in abundant supply and competition, which helps to lower retail prices. In contrast, Haikou relies on external sourcing, leading to higher logistics costs and a greater markup due to strong tourism demand [1] Group 3 - There is a significant disparity in processing fees across different regions, which can greatly affect the overall cost of purchasing gold. For instance, processing fees for hard gold in Shenzhen may be around 100 RMB per gram, while fees in Hainan could be considerably higher, impacting the investment efficiency for consumers [3] Group 4 - The current market has seen increased transparency in pricing across various channels, yet substantial regional price differences and brand premiums remain. Consumers are advised to consider cross-city purchases carefully, as travel expenses may offset any potential savings from price differences [5] - There are objective pricing differences among brands, with similar gold ornaments showing significant price variations across different brands and sales channels. Consumers are encouraged to clarify their needs, focusing on standard gold bars or low-premium channels for investment, while for jewelry purchases, they should compare gold prices, processing fees, weight, and buyback policies to avoid hidden costs [6]

Report Information - Report Title: "破七之后：强势已现，空间几何" - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Research Institute: Huatai Futures Research Institute - Analysts: Cai Shaoli, Zhu Simou [1] Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The logic of RMB's oscillatory strength remains unchanged. The RMB has broken through the 7.00 integer mark, but the appreciation this round is more driven by external factors and trade rhythm. The internal fundamentals have not formed a trend resonance. It is expected to operate in the range of 6.95–7.05 with a slight upward bias in the short term, and the appreciation pace will slow down after breaking 7 [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the overall implied volatility shows an upward trend [4]. Policy Observation - The counter - cyclical factor remains in the negative range but has not been activated. There is a fluctuation in the three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [7]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economy - **Interest Rate Cut and Liquidity**: There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 861.4 billion on December 17 (previous value: 805.8 billion), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (- 123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [14]. - **Fed Chair Candidates**: The core competition is between Waller, Hassett, and Warsh. Market probabilities show Hassett leading, but Trump highly trusts Bessent. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Fed losing its independence", which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it may trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Fed losing its independence", which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [17]. - **US Economic Data**: The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations, but the pace of interest rate cuts remains unchanged. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the CPI increase in November was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [19]. - **Inflation**: The US CPI in November was lower than expected. The contributions of food and core commodities decreased, the contribution of crude oil increased, and the contribution of core services decreased. There is a divergence between CPI and PMI [20]. - **Non - farm Payrolls in November**: Compared with September, the non - farm payrolls in November continued to weaken, with only the construction industry showing improvement. In the unemployment rate, re - employment and temporary unemployment had negative contributions, indicating a change in the employment environment [22]. - **Chinese Economy**: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [24]. Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - The supply and demand of foreign exchange are generally balanced. The surplus of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange has fallen to 15.65 billion US dollars, and although the surplus continues, it is gradually weakening at the margin. The scale of settlement and sale of foreign exchange has not significantly increased or decreased, and the marginal guidance of single - month data on the exchange rate has declined. Enterprises' spot - end operations tend to be rational, with the settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts falling to 51.99% and the purchase rate of foreign exchange payments falling to 60.30%. Enterprises maintain a balanced payment and receipt management, and there is no concentrated settlement or sale of foreign exchange. On the forward end, the management is mainly about existing risks. The demand for new forward hedging has cooled down, and the performance shows a divergence of "decrease in settlement and increase in purchase". The net forward settlement of foreign exchange that has not expired continues to rise, and the hedging structure is stable without showing directional bets [31]. Foreign - related Receipts and Payments - The overall surplus has significantly narrowed, but the structure is stable. The surplus of domestic banks' agency foreign - related receipts and payments has declined. Both the current account and the capital and financial account have weakened simultaneously, reflecting a rhythm adjustment rather than a directional change. The surplus foundation of the current account is still solid. The current account surplus has decreased from 74.66 billion to 55.24 billion US dollars, mainly due to the stable export rhythm and the marginal repair of imports. The goods trade surplus is still as high as 72.67 billion US dollars, indicating the resilience of the foreign trade fundamentals. The service trade deficit has expanded to - 6.42 billion US dollars, weakening the support for the surplus. The capital and financial account has a structural outflow, but the pressure has eased. The capital account deficit has expanded to - 38.61 billion US dollars, among which the securities investment deficit has significantly narrowed, and the direct investment deficit has slightly improved. There is no concentrated outflow in a single channel, and cross - border capital flows remain controllable [36]. Overall Viewpoint - The current situation shows that the difference in economic expectations is favorable for the RMB. The US employment and business activities have cooled down simultaneously, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and the wage growth rate falling to 3.5%. In the same period, China's economic growth - stabilizing policies have continued to take effect, and exports and the current account surplus are robust. The Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral. Under the Fed's interest rate - cut cycle, the real return advantage of the US dollar has converged, while China's monetary policy maintains a stable orientation and the interest rate system is stable. The uncertainty of trade policy is neutral. The US trade and industrial policies towards China still have uncertainties, but the adjustment rhythm has slowed down. China's export market continues to diversify, the trade surplus has reached a record high, and the external demand structure is stable [40]. 2026 Scenario Deduction - There are multiple important events and turning points throughout 2026, including the Fed chair candidate situation at the end of 2025, OPEC and FOMC meetings in January, the government work report in February, the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March, the expiration of Powell's term in May, the FOMC meeting on June 18, the El Nino situation in June, the Politburo meeting in July, the FOMC meeting on September 29, the US mid - term elections on November 3, and the postponement of the expiration of Sino - US tariffs on November 10. These events are related to policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, which will have an impact on the economic situation [43].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a likely interest rate hike next year, indicating increased confidence in achieving sustainable price targets [1][5][6] - Ueda mentioned that the prospects for achieving the 2% price stability target are steadily approaching, supported by rising wages and changes in corporate behavior regarding wage and price setting [1][5] - A Bloomberg survey indicated that most observers expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates every six months from now [1][5] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet plans to announce a record initial budget for the fiscal year starting April 2024, totaling approximately 122.3 trillion yen (about 786 billion USD), which is a 6.3% increase from the current fiscal year's budget [1][6] - The government plans to raise about 29.6 trillion yen through new government bonds to fund the budget, with the reliance on bond issuance expected to decrease from 24.9% to 24.2% [1][6] - Kishida stated that the budget aims to balance economic strengthening and fiscal sustainability [1][6]