中金研究 红利风格作为过去3年A股和港股市场持续性较好的主线之一，从去年"924"之后至今年3月，相对收益一度下降。4月初随着美国关税政策带来外部不确 定性，A股整体企业盈利景气行业预期受到影响，投资者对业绩稳定性和确定性的要求上升，红利风格关注度阶段回升。近期2024年年报披露结束， 2024年A股上市公司提升分红意愿进一步提升，在上市企业盈利增速同比有所下降的情况下，分红总额同比增长5%左右，成为高股息投资的重要支 撑。本报告结合2024年年报，重点梳理当前A股市场分红特征的变化情况，并对相关红利选股模型进行进一步优化与更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 2024年A股上市公司的分红特征 A股上市公司现金分红总额创历史新高，约九成盈利企业进行现金分红。 2024年4月"新国九条"出台以来，监管层持续强化对现金分红的鼓励和支持力 度，叠加A股上市公司自由现金流改善，A股整体现金分红水平进一步提高。具体来看：1）2024年A股上市公司累计现金分红金额2.3万亿元，同比增速 5%；现金分红公司数量占比69.1%，剔除亏损上市公司后2024年分红公司数量占比89.3%。2）A股整体分红比例（现金分红/净利润）提升2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [13] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the high dividend investment opportunities in the construction sector, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, international engineering firms, and quality private enterprises [2][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Central State-Owned Enterprises - The report highlights China State Construction as a top pick due to its complete qualifications and stable operations, benefiting from steady growth. The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from around 20% to over 24%, with a projected new contract amount of 1,414.9 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [8][9] - Other notable mentions include China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction, with dividend yields of over 5% and 6% respectively [8] Local State-Owned Enterprises - Sichuan Road and Bridge is identified as a key player, with a projected dividend yield of around 6% for 2025. The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100-200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future growth [8][9] - Other local state-owned enterprises with attractive valuations and high dividend yields include Anhui Construction and Tunnel Engineering [8] International Engineering - The report stresses the investment opportunities presented by the "Belt and Road" initiative, recommending companies like China Steel International and China National Materials, which have high overseas order growth and dividend yields around 5% [8][10] Quality Private Enterprises - Jianghe Group is highlighted for its robust fundamentals and high dividend payout ratio, with a projected payout exceeding 95% for 2024. The company has expanded its overseas business significantly, with new orders growing by 57% year-on-year [8][11]

| | | 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 [Table_Title] 4 月进口煤量继续减量，煤价继续探底 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 《煤炭开采行业周报：进口约束与发运倒挂支撑基 本面，煤炭高股息价值持续关注（推荐）*煤炭开 采*陈晨》——2025-04-20 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/05/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -0.4% | -6.3% | -21.7% | | 沪深 300 | 4.3% | -1.2% | 5.0% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述： 煤企成本下降难补煤价跌，煤企业绩进一步向合理 区间回归（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-05-09 《煤炭开采行业周报：港口库存延续去化，煤价筑 底下关注高股息价值（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2025-04-27 《煤炭开采行业专题研究：2025Q1 主动型基金重 仓股煤炭持仓比例降至 0.44%，高股息红利资产底 部配置价值凸显（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— ...

2025 年 05 月 11 日 黄金坑成功兑现：后续是高低结构再平衡 本周上证指数涨 1.92%回升至 3350 附近，沪深 300 涨 2.00%，创业板指涨 3.27%，所有一级行业均实现上涨。自我们国投策略团队 4 月 7 号《这是一个 "黄金坑"！》提出"黄金坑"，从 4 月初至 4 月中旬"坑底明确"到"爬坑"， 黄金坑获得阶段性验证；到上证综指回到清明节前水平"迎接出坑"，可以明确 地说：本轮"黄金坑"基本符合我们的判断。对于后续大盘指数预判，我们反复 强调：大盘指数会转入"震荡市"思维，对应"强预期、弱现实"定价状态，但 没有明显"二次探底"风险，在这个阶段安心做结构，好好找α是可以的。 事实上，市场在此期间对于"二次探底"仍有诸多探讨，但我们认为"二次探底" 的促发因素在于美元指数的意外走升，眼下美元指数大致在 100 附近波动，"弱 美元"底色并未改变，意味着由美向非美资产的回摆过程依然是全球资产定价 的底层逻辑。同时，市场进一步大幅向上的重要制约是国内基本面充满韧性却 存在环比走弱压力。目前，可以看到 1-3 月全国财政支出增速进一步扩张到 4.2% （前值 3.4%），但央地财政支出增 ...

注意两个关键点位：沪指要是跌破3330点且成交量缩到万亿以下，赶紧减仓避险；反过来如果放量突破3360点，科技成长股又能浪起来！记住帮主说的，现 在市场处于政策底和经济底之间的磨人阶段，中长线投资者千万别被短期波动带偏节奏。 下周重点盯紧两件大事：一个是美联储5月15日的议息会议，虽然市场赌不加息，但鲍威尔的讲话可能暗藏玄机；更关键的是周二美国4月CPI数据，要是通 胀超预期，全球市场都得抖三抖！国内方面，5月PMI和社融数据也要盯，还有中美关税谈判进展，这些都可能成为行情催化剂。 第一大赛道还是科技成长！但记住要挑硬核标的。AI算力、半导体国产化这些政策力挺的方向，回调就是机会。比如CPO光模块龙头中际旭创，北向资金最 近天天加仓，业绩确定性摆在那儿。第二赛道消费复苏，五一假期数据超预期，旅游、免税、家电这些板块值得关注。格力电器、中国中免现在估值还在地 板上，性价比杠杠的！第三赛道防御配置，银行股最近走独立行情，建设银行都创历史新高了，高股息策略在震荡市就是压舱石。 仓位建议保持五成，进可攻退可守。科技股要是跌破20日均线分批低吸，但别碰PEEK材料这些纯概念炒作。消费股可以等回调到年线附近抄底，像中国中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in the A-share market demonstrates strong resilience amid market fluctuations, with significant capital inflows into undervalued, high-dividend banking assets reflecting an increased demand for defensive sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 9, the banking sector outperformed the market, with the China Securities Banking Index rising for three consecutive trading days, and several banks, including Chengdu Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The Huabao China Securities Banking ETF saw a single-day increase of 1.35%, also hitting a historical peak, with total trading volume for the top 12 banking ETFs reaching 9.55 billion yuan, of which Huabao accounted for 3.93 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The banking sector's current dividend yield is approximately 6.5%, ranking second among all Shenwan first-level industries, with a PE ratio of 6.5 and a PB ratio of around 0.53, both of which are the lowest across sectors [3]. - Historical data indicates that the banking sector has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index since 2011, with a 70% annual win rate and ranking in the top five for historical returns in seven out of 30 industry years [5]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Support - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, are expected to enhance the banking operating environment and support the overall economy [4]. - The "national team" remains a steadfast holder of banking stocks, with significant positions in major banks, indicating confidence in the sector's long-term value [3].

截至5月7日，公募基金年内累计分红已突破870亿元。 据证券时报·券商中国记者统计，以红利发放日为口径，2025年以来基金合计派发871亿元"红包"，部分 基金公司分红力度显著，单只基金最高分红金额达26.8亿元，最高分红比例达20%。从结构看，债券型 基金在分红基金中占比高达82%，而权益类被动指数基金的分红数量和金额也呈现增长趋势。 业内人士表示，基金分红在帮助投资者锁定收益、降低交易成本的同时，也优化了基金运作效率，有利于 长期回报的提升。叠加政策层面对分红和市值管理的鼓励，高股息资产在当前低利率环境下的吸引力正不 断上升。 从分红总金额来看，华夏沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、南方中证500ETF、中银丰和定期开放、易方 达沪深300ETF的"红包" 位列前五，单只基金最高分红达26.8亿元。此外，华泰柏瑞红利ETF与华夏鼎丰 的单只基金分红也超过了10亿元。 就分红比例而言，工银全球配置以20%居首，新华安享惠金E、江信添福、大成策略回报、鹏华盛世创新 A等基金分红比例也均在10%以上。单位分红方面，嘉实融享浮动净值型以每份3.8元排名第一，另有多 只REITs和国债ETF的单位分红超过1元 ...

截至5月7日，公募基金年内累计分红已突破870亿元。 据券商中国记者统计，以红利发放日为口径，2025年以来基金合计派发871亿元"红包"，部分基金公司分红力 度显著，单只基金最高分红金额达26.8亿元，最高分红比例达20%。从结构看，债券型基金在分红基金中占比 高达82%，而权益类被动指数基金的分红数量和金额也呈现增长趋势。 业内人士表示，基金分红在帮助投资者锁定收益、降低交易成本的同时，也优化了基金运作效率，有利于长期 回报的提升。叠加政策层面对分红和市值管理的鼓励，高股息资产在当前低利率环境下的吸引力正不断上升。 基金"红包雨"不断，债基仍是"分红大户" Wind数据显示，2025年以来，基金派发"红包"总额达到871亿元，创下新高，分红热度持续升温。 从分红总金额来看，华夏沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、南方中证500ETF、中银丰和定期开放、易方达沪深 300ETF的"红包" 位列前五，单只基金最高分红达26.8亿元。此外，华泰柏瑞红利ETF与华夏鼎丰的单只基金分 红也超过了10亿元。 就分红比例而言，工银全球配置以20%居首，新华安享惠金E、江信添福、大成策略回报、鹏华盛世创新A等 基金分 ...

本周，A股整体强势上攻，上证指数成功收复3300点，并回补4月7日向下跳空缺口，深证成指时隔1个 月后重新站上万点大关，创业板指、沪深300等也纷纷突破重要的指数关口。日均成交较"五一"前明显 提升，4个交易日合计成交5.41万亿元。 融资余额激增逾214亿元，终结此前连续6周融资净卖出状态。电子行业获得逾47亿元融资净买入，计算 机行业获得逾34亿元净买入，机械设备行业获得23.79亿元净买入，医药生物、非银金融、通信、国防 军工等行业也均获得超10亿元净买入。仅交通运输、电力设备、煤炭等少数行业遭融资客微量净卖出。 另据Wind数据统计，机械设备行业获得近207亿元主力资金净流入，国防军工行业获得逾184亿元净流 入，计算机行业、汽车行业也均获得超百亿元净流入，纺织服饰行业则连续9日获得净流入。仅非银金 融、房地产、钢铁三行业本周主力资金呈净流出状态。 市场热点方面，随着年报披露完毕，年度分红逐步展开，高股息股受到市场追捧，特别是银行板块股 票，本周纷纷创新高。 建设银行5月9日分红除权后立即填权，股价创历史新高（复权，下同），成都银行、浦发银行、江苏银 行等多股本周亦创历史新高，重庆银行、青岛银行等则创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector demonstrates strong defensive capabilities amid market fluctuations, with significant inflows of capital and rising stock prices for major banks, indicating a potential investment opportunity in this sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector showed resilience, with the A-share leading bank ETF (512800) achieving a new high of 1.581 yuan, marking a three-day upward trend [1]. - A total of 42 listed banks saw 41 stocks rise, with notable gains from banks such as Qingdao Bank (over 3% increase) and several others exceeding 2% [3]. - The banking sector attracted a substantial capital inflow of 4.35 billion yuan, the highest among all primary industries [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent monetary policy measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut and a reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates, are expected to alleviate the financial burden on commercial banks [3]. - The 50 basis points reserve requirement cut is projected to release over one trillion yuan in long-term funds, which can replace high-cost MLF stock, reducing interest expenses for financial institutions [3]. - Analysts believe that these policies will stabilize asset quality expectations for banks and support steady credit growth, particularly if they stimulate recovery in real estate and consumption [3]. Group 3: Dividend Yield and Long-term Value - The bank ETF (512800) has a dividend yield of 6.57%, significantly exceeding the risk-free rate by nearly 5 percentage points, highlighting the attractiveness of high dividends in the current market [4]. - Historical performance data indicates that the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past decade, with seven years ranking in the top five among 30 industries for annual returns [4][5]. - The bank ETF is designed to capture high dividend opportunities while maintaining a diversified portfolio across major state-owned and growth-oriented banks [5].