近年来，供应链中断事件的频发，成了越来越多半导体人的噩梦： ❗ …… 全球化带来了前所未有的复杂性，半导体企业在 追求管理效率 的同时，需建立更完善的 风险防控 机制 ，然而供应商信息不透明、外部环境动态变化等加剧了不确定性，缺乏有效的数字化工具更是 难以对各类风险事件进行实时化、立体化监测，容易出现断链风险。 在这样的大背景下， 启信慧眼 《韧性重构·2025半导体产业供应链风险管理白皮书》 重磅发布！ 基于数年来服务众多 半导体头部企业的 经验沉淀 ，启信慧眼系统性地梳理了六大供应链风控趋 势，为半导体行业提供了升级的新视角，同步推出的供应链风控SaaS也将助力半导体企业实现 从"经验主义"到"数智推理" 、 从"人效比拼"到"自动筛查" 、 从"事后灭火"到"事前预警" 的全面 升级，共同探索供应链韧性重构新范式。 六大趋势抢先看： ❗ 地缘冲突引爆"氖气危机"，生产成本激增！ ❗ 关税政策反复，被迫调整全球供应链布局！ ❗ 自然灾害导致工厂停工，原材料价格暴涨！ ❗ 市场需求波动，优质供应商资源开发不及时！ ✅ 从局部监测到全球扫描，风险全面感知 ✅ 从人工筛选到分级管理，风险精准预警 关于 启信慧眼 ...

原木产业风险管理日报 2025年5月20日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 750-820 | 17.24% | 76.9% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 现货敞口 | | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 原木进口量 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空原木期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | lg2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 850-790 | | 库存管理 | 偏高库存高 位，担心价 格下跌 | 多 | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖出看涨期权 | lg2507P80 0 | 买入 | | 9.5-14 | | | | | 降低资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of investor protection and compliance in the fund management industry, aligning with national regulatory requirements and enhancing investor confidence [1][5]. Group 1: Investor Protection Initiatives - The company organized a learning seminar to reinforce the concept of investor protection among employees, focusing on the "suitability obligation" in fund management [3][4]. - The seminar highlighted the necessity of strict investor qualification checks to prevent non-compliant investors from being offered private fund products [3][4]. - The company aims to integrate investor protection principles throughout its fund management processes, ensuring a robust compliance framework [1][6]. Group 2: Compliance and Regulatory Framework - The company recognizes the increasing regulatory scrutiny in the private fund sector and the need for enhanced compliance measures to maintain industry standards [5][6]. - Key compliance warnings discussed include strengthening investor suitability management, standardizing information disclosure, and ensuring lawful investment operations [4][5]. - The company is committed to embedding compliance requirements into all business processes and establishing a comprehensive compliance management system [5][6]. Group 3: Future Directions - The company plans to continue prioritizing investor interests, enhancing its service capabilities across investment research, compliance management, and sales services [6]. - There is a focus on continuous improvement of investor education content and innovative service delivery to enhance investor satisfaction and trust [6].

传统投资决策的盲区往往源于单一资产类别的视角局限。巨匯通过股票、债券、大宗商品与外汇市场的联动分析，将分散的金融要素编织成动态关系网。当 美国劳工部发布非农就业数据时，平台能在9秒内同步更新美元指数期货持仓变化、科技股波动率指数以及黄金避险资金流向，这种全资产透视能力就像为 投资者配备了金融市场的热成像仪。5月美联储利率决议期间，系统提前24小时预警欧元/美元1.08-1.095的震荡区间，通过历史波动率对比与流动性监测模 型，帮助用户规避了15%的潜在回撤风险。 经济周期罗盘：策略适配器的运作逻辑 在全球金融市场波动加剧的2025年，投资者比以往任何时候都更需要穿透数据迷雾的导航系统。Macro Global Markets巨匯凭借其覆盖全球的实时数据网 络，正成为超过200万专业用户的首选分析平台——这里每分钟处理超过1.2亿条市场数据，相当于每秒为每位投资者过滤出最具价值的2.3个决策信号。 在平台的核心策略库中，Global Macro框架将经济周期切割为四个象限：高增长高通胀、高增长低通胀、低增长高通胀、低增长低通胀。每个象限对应着差 异化的资产配置模板，例如当前全球经济处于"温和通胀下的结构性增长 ...

Group 1 - UBS emphasizes the profound impact of the recent US tariff measures on the global economy, predicting a reduction in US real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2025 and an increase in inflation by 2 basis points [1] - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 growth expectations lowered by 40 basis points to 2.6% and 2026 expectations down by 20 basis points to 2.5% [1] - UBS maintains a cautious stance on long-term US Treasuries, suggesting a long position in 30-year US Treasuries relative to swap rates, while also positioning in US 10-year breakeven inflation rates and 5-year euro inflation swaps [1] Group 2 - In the foreign exchange market, UBS suggests buying during periods of declining volatility rather than directly shorting the US dollar, based on the belief that the dollar index is undervalued [2] - For emerging market currencies, UBS recommends selective exposure to commodity currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, reflecting confidence in regional economic resilience [2] - UBS sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 5300 points, indicating a potential upside of 7%, while cautioning that the market is entering a high valuation zone [2] Group 3 - UBS advises reallocating funds to local currency debt in Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India, and Singapore instead of directly investing in stocks, due to the current interest rate environment [3] - UBS's growth forecast for Asian emerging markets is 0.3 percentage points higher than the IMF's prediction, influencing its asset allocation strategy [3] - UBS constructs a multi-layered defense system for risk hedging, recommending maintaining gold positions with a target price of $3500 per ounce, reflecting a focus on geopolitical risk premiums [3] Group 4 - UBS's strategy report reflects a risk management-oriented allocation approach, focusing on duration management, volatility trading, and regional selection amid global economic uncertainty [4] - The effectiveness of UBS's allocation framework will depend on the intensity of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy paths, and the actual resilience of the global economy [4]

联创集团金融衍生品部负责人（中国国际期货特聘讲师）黄超则聚焦钢贸行业痛点，围绕"期货市场创新赋能南沙产 业升级——钢贸风险管理实践"进行主题分享，从基差、交割、保证金制度等维度，对套期保值的可行性进行了专业 且细致的分析，并按照趋势判断、方案制定、执行与评估等流程，全方位展示了套期保值的完整操作路径，以自身 多年的经典案例分享了宝贵经验，为钢贸企业提升风险管理水平提供了详实的操作指南。 南沙期金产业园投资公司营销负责人罗瑞瑶以"打造产融结合新高地——南沙期金产业园政策赋能与生态构建路 径"为主题进行分享，详细介绍了南沙对期货产业的政策支持，包括发展运营、产业集聚、办公用房支持等方面，一 系列政策组合拳为期货机构和企业的发展注入强劲动力。她着重推介了南沙期金产业园，作为全国首个期货金融业 （部分）参会人员合照 期货日报网讯（记者 刘威魁）近日，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会、国家外汇局、广东省人民政府联 合发布《关于金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合作的意见》（以下简称"南沙金融30条"）。在服务特 色金融服务上，包括创新服务低碳发展的绿色金融业务。鼓励广州期货交易所积极探索电力期货，做精做深新 ...

行业下行周期往往是检验企业韧性的试金石。当前，碳酸锂市场正在上演一场韧性生长的新故事。 期货工具的价值，本质是金融工具与实体产业的深度共振。碳酸锂期货用"风险分散"的逻辑重构了中小 企业的生存法则，用"价格发现"的功能升级了产业的决策方式。在新能源产业迈向高质量发展的历程 中，拥抱期货市场不再是选择题，而是企业从"被动承受" 转向 "主动管理"的必答题。 当多数企业选择收缩规模时，厦门一家专注于锂矿开发及贸易的中小企业（下称Z公司）利用期货工具 锁定生产利润，获得现金流支撑，实现逆周期扩张。这种"别人收缩我扩张"的差异化策略，其实是利用 期货市场，将"价格风险"转化为"竞争优势"。对Z公司而言，期货套保不再是"锦上添花"，而是关乎生 存的"刚需配置"。可以说，期货市场打破了"价格下跌=行业衰退"的线性思维，让具备风险管理能力的 企业能够"危中寻机"，重塑行业生存法则。 期货工具的价值，不仅在于风险对冲，更体现在成本结构优化与战略决策升级上。在长协订单模式下， 贵州天美锂能新材料有限公司（下称天美锂能）曾因"锁量不锁价"的签单模式，在价格下行周期承受高 额采购成本，而参与期货套保后，其通过期货市场提前锁定价格， ...

上海农商行行长人选明确。 5月19日上午，上海农商银行召开领导班子调整宣布会，会议宣布汪明任该行党委副书记，并提名任行长、副 董事长；提名占玲灵、张跃红任该行副行长。 汪明系从上海银行"空降"，此前担任上海银行副行长，分管过金融市场、公司业务、资管和风险等业务条线。 占玲灵和张跃红为上海农商行内部提拔，分别曾任该行青浦支行行长，金融部总经理。 4月22日上午，上海农商行原行长顾建忠正式回归了离职10年的上海银行，出任上海银行党委书记，并于5月16 日选举为该行第六届董事会董事长。在上海农商行行长一职空缺期间，4月27日发布的上海市委组织部发布市 管干部任职前公示显示，汪明拟提名任市管企业经理班子正职。 券商中国记者从业内人士处了解到，在上海银行担任副行长这一阶段，汪明正值43岁至50岁，属于行内高 管"少壮派"，性格具有亲和力，并兼具重任，分管过上海银行资管板块，经历了资管新规落地初期、银行理财 转型阶段，面临行内业务调整和转型的挑战。 "口号容易喊，真到实操层面却并不容易。"在资管新规发布近一年之时，2019年3月汪明接受了媒体采访，对 当时银行资管转型的阵痛直言不讳，他认为过去靠几个产品闯天下的时代已经结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative approach of using large language models (LLMs) to analyze earnings call transcripts, enabling analysts to assess the sentiment of CEOs regarding future business outlooks and their potential impact on stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Advanced Earnings Call Analysis - LSEG MarketPsych Transcript Analytics integrates LSEG's data resources with MarketPsych's natural language processing (NLP) capabilities, providing sentiment analysis and thematic data for over 16,000 publicly listed companies [2][3]. - The solution identifies over 1,000 themes and 4,000 event types within earnings call transcripts, allowing for detailed sentiment classification and analysis [3][4]. Group 2: Application Scenarios - Companies with high sentiment scores in earnings calls tend to outperform those with lower scores in the following month, indicating a correlation between CEO sentiment and stock performance [6]. - The built-in ESG sentiment classifier can dynamically monitor ESG-related sentiments, providing risk warnings for companies with low ESG sentiment scores [6][7]. - The analysis system can also quantify the frequency and sentiment of key negative terms mentioned by executives, aiding in risk management and credit risk monitoring [7].

Group 1 - The event titled "Futures Serving High-Quality Development of the Real Economy and Training Activities for Bulk Commodity Industry in Zhejiang" was held in Hangzhou, focusing on risk management and trading strategies in the futures market [1] - Experts and representatives from over a hundred companies discussed topics such as hedging practices, options and rights trading, basis trading, and risk control in hedging [1] - The president of Beijing Heyirong Group shared that companies need strong risk management capabilities to navigate increasing market uncertainties due to changes in information flow, channel structures, and financial attributes [1] Group 2 - The general manager of Zhejiang Zheqi Industrial Co., Ltd. emphasized the importance of using derivatives for risk management to control uncertainties and achieve strategic goals [2] - The Chief Risk Officer of Aolan Agriculture highlighted the need for companies to establish a robust risk control framework to ensure compliance and operational stability during hedging activities [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange is enhancing its service mechanisms to help more companies strengthen their risk management capabilities through participation in the futures market, with plans to upgrade its "Enterprise Risk Management Plan" by 2025 [2]