误读"鹰派"：沃什的真实意图是为降息铺路 研报指出，市场看到沃什提名后的第一反应是紧缩恐慌，但这忽略了他政策主张的完整性。沃什虽然强调美联储必须缩减其臃肿的7万亿美元资产负债 表，但这并不是为了扼杀经济。 市场再一次对美联储的动作做出了膝跳反射式的误读。2026年1月30日，特朗普正式提名凯文・沃什为下任美联储主席。华尔街的第一反应是恐慌：美 元飙升，美股下挫，贵金属遭遇抛售。原因很简单，市场给沃什贴上了"鹰派"的标签。 2月4日，申银万国在研报中分析称，市场正在犯下过快定价的错误。沃什并非传统的鹰派，他的核心政策主张是"缩表+降息"的混合体——通过缩减资 产负债表来抑制长期通胀预期，从而为大幅降息打开空间。对于投资者而言，这意味着短期内的流动性恐慌可能是错杀。在2026年中期选举的政治压力 和美国财政利息支出的沉重负担下，降息大概率会先于缩表落地。投资者不应被短期波动吓退，而应关注美股风格切换（大盘向小盘）、贵金属波动率 回归后的入场机会，以及原油价格由于地缘政治可能带来的二次通胀风险。 相反，沃什认为当前的高利率没有考虑到AI带来的生产力提升。他的逻辑闭环是：只有通过缩表消除了"美联储看跌期权"和长期通胀 ...

今日金价：大家要有心理准备了，2月4日，金价或将重现15年历史 今日金价，大家要有心理准备，行情有点"冷"，2026年2月4日，黄金市场一改前期的狂飙突进，呈现出跌势明显、震荡走低的态势，这波回调，是不是让你 想起了2015年那段漫长的震荡期？历史总是惊人的相似，在高位盘旋后，多空博弈再次加剧。 先看盘面数据，给各位交个底，上海现货黄金9999报收1065元/克，沪金期货稍高至1070元/克，上海黄金交易所的基准价也在1040元/克左右徘徊，较前日虽 有微涨，整体上行动能不足。 武汉：周大福项链1495、中国黄金1512、菜百首饰1490。 说到大家最关心的金店售价，今天的"溢价"依然不低，部分地区已现松动，各大品牌足金999的饰品价格每克在1229元到1542元之间，工费另计，具体到全 国主要城市的品牌金店，情况如下（单位：元/克）： 潍坊：谢瑞麟金项链1495、金至尊1495、老庙黄金1498。 长沙：老凤祥1518、菜百首饰1490、周六福1505。 蚌埠：老庙黄金金项链1498、周大福饰品1495、周六福1505。 泰安：周生生1542、老凤祥1518、老庙黄金1498。 再看回收端，市场情绪谨慎，回 ...

李迅雷 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 文章原载于"李迅雷金融与投资"微信公众号：lixunlei0722 大家似乎普遍都认为一旦人民币实现自由兑换，就会大幅贬值。曾与不少人交流过，不管是普通百姓，还是金融学者，甚 至一些高层人士，都无一例外地持有这样的观点。经验告诉我们，一致预期往往是错的。为此，笔者在去年7月份发表长文 《人民币可否尝试惊险一跃》，建议人民币早日尝试在资本项下的自由兑换，从而加速人民币国际化进程。 近日，《求是》杂志发表重要文章，指出金融强国的目标，"一是拥有强大的货币，在国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用， 具有全球储备货币地位"。而我一直认为人民币实现自由兑换后并不会出现大幅贬值或资本外逃现象。本文将进一步解释为 何美元是被高估的，人民币则是被低估的，在当前美元走弱的背景下，应该加快提升人民币的国际化地位。 购买力平价—— 反映各国货币的估值水平 投资股票的人都知道什么叫市盈率，市盈率越低，说明估值越便宜。如每当股市步入漫长的熊市，大家都会说股价被低估 了，因为市盈率很低了，希望平准基金能进场；每当股市疯涨，平均市盈率处在历史高位，则管理层就会推进IPO速度、 控制融资规模等来平抑市场狂热情绪。 ...

编辑 杨娟娟 校对 王心 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，国际金价大幅下跌和大量抛压有关，短期涨幅过大累积大量获 利盘，市场见顶回落出现急跌，但黄金价格长期上涨逻辑不变，去美元化趋势不变，后期可能会反复出 现震荡走势。 2026年2月4日，高盛发布最新观点称，维持对2026年12月金价每盎司5400美元的预测，并指出该预测存 在明显上行风险。 南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉认为，对普通投资者而言，当前的关键并非择时，而是确立正确的 投资范式，普通投资者应彻底摒弃"抄底"思维。若进行长期配置，必须使用正确工具，远离杠杆，并且 严格控制比例，以"逢低、分批、长期"的定投思路平滑成本，才能穿越高波动周期，分享其长期价值。 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者徐雨婷）2月5日，现货黄金跌幅持续扩大，现货黄金一度跌破4800美元/盎 司，日内跌超3%。截至盘中，现货黄金报4881.3美元/盎司，跌1.72%；COMEX黄金报4886.8美元/盎 司，跌1.28%。 现货白银一度跌破75美元/盎司，跌幅扩大至15%。截至盘中，现货白银报77.1美元/盎司，跌12.66%； COMEX白银报76.7美元/盎司，跌9.11%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals market is experiencing a decline, with gold futures showing a significant drop in price, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Gold Production and Consumption - In 2025, domestic gold production is expected to reach 381.339 tons, an increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09% year-on-year. Imported gold production is projected at 170.681 tons, up by 13.817 tons or 8.81% year-on-year. Total gold production, including domestic and imported sources, is estimated at 552.020 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.914 tons or 3.35% [2]. - The total gold consumption in China for 2025 is forecasted at 950.096 tons, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year. This includes a significant drop in gold jewelry consumption, which is expected to be 363.836 tons, down 31.61% year-on-year. In contrast, gold bars and coins are projected to increase to 504.238 tons, a rise of 35.14% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with January ADP employment numbers increasing by 22,000, which is below the expected 48,000. However, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI stands at 53.8, indicating economic resilience. The market is awaiting the upcoming non-farm employment data [4]. - The geopolitical tensions related to Greenland's sovereignty are accelerating the de-dollarization process in Europe. In the medium to long term, the global dollar reserve ratio is expected to continue declining, which may benefit gold's monetary attributes [4]. - The introduction of new tax policies on gold may significantly impact domestic physical gold demand, particularly in the jewelry sector. Despite this, the central bank's gold purchases and investment demand are crucial to offset the decline in jewelry demand [4].

现货白银一度跌破75美元/盎司，跌幅扩大至15%。截至盘中，现货白银报77.1美元/盎司，跌12.66%； COMEX白银报76.7美元/盎司，跌9.11%。 新京报贝壳财经记者徐雨婷编辑杨娟娟 2月5日，现货黄金跌幅持续扩大，现货黄金一度跌破4800美元/盎司，日内跌超3%。截至盘中，现货黄 金报4881.3美元/盎司，跌1.72%；COMEX黄金报4886.8，跌1.28%。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，国际金价大幅下跌和大量抛压有关，短期涨幅过大累计大量获 利盘，市场见顶回落出现急跌，但黄金价格长期上涨逻辑不变，去美元化趋势不变，后期可能会反复出 现震荡走势。 2026年2月4日,高盛发布最新观点称,维持对2026年12月金价每盎司5400美元的预测,并指出该预测存在明 显上行风险。 田利辉认为，对普通投资者而言，当前的关键并非择时，而是确立正确的投资范式，普通投资者应彻底 摒弃"抄底"思维。若进行长期配置，必须使用正确工具，远离杠杆，并且严格控制比例，以"逢低、分 批、长期"的定投思路平滑成本，才能穿越高波动周期，分享其长期价值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the common belief that the renminbi will depreciate significantly upon achieving free convertibility is misguided. Instead, it suggests that the renminbi is undervalued and should be accelerated in its internationalization process, especially in the context of a weakening US dollar [1]. Group 1: Currency Valuation - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is used to assess the valuation levels of various currencies, indicating that the market exchange rates of developing countries' currencies, including the renminbi, are generally lower than their PPP rates [2][3]. - The renminbi's market exchange rate was 7.19 against the US dollar in June 2025, while its PPP rate is approximately 3.43, indicating a significant undervaluation [3]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Undervaluation - The primary reason for the long-term undervaluation of the renminbi is its weak liquidity, which limits its circulation and acceptance compared to other currencies [5]. - The renminbi's international payment share was only 2.89% as of May 2025, ranking it as the sixth-largest payment currency, while the US dollar accounts for over 40% [8][9]. - The geographical concentration of renminbi payments is primarily in Hong Kong, with only 2.9% occurring in the US, highlighting its limited global reach [10][12]. Group 3: Global Reserve Currency Status - The renminbi's share in global official reserves is low, with approximately $249.7 billion as of the end of 2024, accounting for only 2.2% of total reserves, making it the sixth-largest reserve currency [12][15]. - In contrast, the US dollar constitutes about 60% of global reserves, indicating a significant disparity in reserve currency status [15]. Group 4: Implications of Currency Internationalization - Accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi could enhance its global demand and liquidity, potentially leading to an appreciation of its value [31][34]. - The article suggests that increasing the renminbi's share in global reserves from around 2% to 10% could lead to a reduction in M2 growth, as more renminbi would be held abroad [34]. - The need for financial market openness is emphasized as a means to enhance the renminbi's credit rating and international acceptance, which are crucial for its transformation into a strong currency [35].

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have significantly declined after a recent rebound, which had previously pushed their prices to historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices plummeted by 8% to $4,465 per ounce, breaking the previous historical high of nearly $5,600 [3]. - Silver prices fell by 7%, following a 30% drop the previous day [3]. - In late January, gold had surpassed $5,500 per ounce, and silver reached over $120 per ounce [4]. Group 2: Market Influences - The sell-off was triggered by President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh, a "hawkish" figure, to potentially succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, easing concerns about aggressive monetary policy [3][4]. - Speculative buying from China had previously driven gold and silver prices beyond historical trading ranges, contributing to the rapid price collapse [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent price drop is attributed to a combination of factors, including the perception of Walsh's nomination as a means to restore Fed credibility and discipline in monetary policy [4]. - The market's vulnerability was exacerbated by the influx of leveraged funds, creating a crowded trading environment that led to forced liquidations and further price declines [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, major Wall Street investment banks maintain a bullish outlook, with Deutsche Bank predicting gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by year-end [5]. - Long-term factors such as "de-dollarization" and rising U.S. debt risks are expected to support gold prices, indicating that the current pullback is a short-term correction rather than the end of a bull market [5].

大成正向回报基金经理张家旺 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 陈燕青 进入2月，A股迎来调整，沪指一度逼近4000点，随后又有所反弹，有色、AI等强势板块一度出现较大 幅度调整。今年以来，周期股整体走势较强。展望后市，大成正向回报基金经理张家旺近日接受记者采 访时表示，周期品的供需紧平衡状态未变，待市场波动率回落并趋于稳定后，有色金属板块或将迎来更 合适的介入窗口。 有色行业盈利良好 张家旺，拥有超9年证券从业经验，2016年7月加入大成基金，曾先后任宏观策略，金融研究员，2020年 任周期行业组长，现任大成正向回报、大成盛享一年持有、大成安享得利六个月持有等基金的基金经 理。 在张家旺看来，近期A股市场波动更多来自两方面因素：一是短期涨幅偏大带来的获利回吐，二是外部 流动性预期的边际变化。"市场一度担忧新任美联储主席可能推进缩表，从而推升强美元与流动性收紧 预期，进而触发此前涨速较快的金、银、铜等金属价格出现明显调整，进而带动市场调整。" "若后续流动性紧张预期得到缓解，例如美联储通过公开表态引导市场预期，风险偏好有望修复。"张家 旺表示。 去年以通信为代表的成长股整体跑赢周期品，周期股方面有色金属走势强劲。展望今 ...

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/2/4 | 5078. 27 | 89. 65 | 5099. 10 | 89. 45 | 1145.04 | 22937.00 | 1137.83 | 23200.00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2026/2/ ...