FXStreet网站：美联储官员的谨慎语气可能会在短期内限制黄金的上涨空间 【机构观点分析】 新湖期货表示，美国二季度GDP增速上修至3.8%，创近两年新高，上修的主要原因是消费者支出的意 外强劲和进口的下降。当前市场对美联储在10月降息的预期小幅回落至90%下方，美元指数重回98上 方，金价小幅承压。另外，美国政府停摆的风险上升，白宫警告政府关门期间或永久裁员，两党僵局再 度升级。短期来看，美国政府关门危机反复出现损害市场的耐心和信心，市场避险情绪有所回升，黄金 价格小幅回调后仍将得到一定支撑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元 化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 新湖期货：美国政府停摆风险持续上升金价小幅反弹 国信期货：多空因素交织下短期贵金属或延续震荡偏强格局 正信期货：美联储对降息路径分歧较大，贵金属震荡调整 Barchat.com网站：一项关键技术指标暗示短期需对金价保持谨慎 国信期货表示，美国经济数据表现强劲，第二季度GDP增速上修至3.8%，初请失业金人数降至近期新 低，一定程度上削弱了市场对美联储快速降息的预期。与此同时，美联储内部意见分歧明显，部分官 ...

消息面，Grasberg铜矿出现较大扰动，供需平衡表大幅改善下铜价有望走强。今日，聚焦有色金属及矿业机会的矿业ETF（561330）继续上涨，盘中涨超 2%，根据wind数据，矿业ETF（561330）连续10日迎净流入。 铜矿扰动事件频发，铜价行情或将启动 9月8日自由港（FCX.N）Grasberg铜矿GBC矿体五个生产区块之一"PB1C"发生事故（矿井突然涌入约80万公吨湿物料），并导致支持GBC其他生产区块的基 建受损，Grasberg铜矿整体暂停运营。截至9月24日，自由港报2人死亡5人失踪。公司正在开展搜寻失踪人员、事故调查与评估、清理淤泥与废墟等工作。 储量方面，GBC矿体储量占PIFI（自由港印尼子公司，Grasberg运营公司）已探明储量的50%。产量方面，Grasberg铜矿是全球第二大铜矿及全球第三大金 矿，2024年铜/金产量分别为82万吨/58吨，约占全球铜供给量的3%；其中出事故的GBC矿体产量占Grasberg铜矿产量的70%，是该矿最重要的矿体。总结来 说，9月24日更新报告表明，2025/2026年Grasberg矿下调指引20/27万吨，约占全球铜供给量的0.7%/1%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].

Group 1: Gold and Platinum Prices - The current gold price in major jewelry stores ranges from 980 to 1100 RMB per gram, with the lowest price at 百泰黄金 at 980 RMB and the highest at 周大生 and 老凤祥 at 1098 RMB [6][2][1] - Platinum prices are generally lower, with the highest being 572 RMB per gram at 东祥金店 and 周大生, while the lowest is 370 RMB at 扬州金店 [1][2][3] Group 2: Paper Gold and Palladium Prices - The paper gold prices are trading between 3739.24 to 3742.56 USD per ounce, with corresponding RMB prices around 855.29 to 855.97 RMB per gram, showing slight increases of 0.11% to 0.17% [9][10][11][12] - Paper palladium prices range from 1154.48 to 1195.95 USD per ounce, with RMB prices between 265.08 to 273.13 RMB per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.20% to 0.59% [13][14][15] Group 3: Gold Recovery Prices - The recovery price for the highest purity gold (99.9%) is currently 836 RMB per gram, while 22k gold is at 733 RMB, 18k gold at 604 RMB, and 14k gold at 467 RMB [17][18][19][20] - Platinum and palladium recovery prices are 290 RMB and 240 RMB per gram respectively, both maintaining high purity levels [21][22] Group 4: Panda Gold Coin Prices - The prices for the Panda gold coins vary significantly, with a complete set priced at 51,378 RMB and individual coins ranging from 1,153 RMB for 1 gram to 480,000 RMB for 1 kilogram [24][25][31] Group 5: Future Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have increased over 41% this year, with expectations of continued upward movement due to factors like interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [35][36] - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term corrections, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by central bank purchases and inflation concerns [35][36]

硅谷银行的掌门人格雷戈里·贝克1993年从印第安纳大学金融专业毕业，就一头扎进硅谷银行，从信贷员干起。 那时候SVB刚从房地产危机里爬出来，他每天跑腿给初创公司批贷款，摸爬滚打积累人脉。 2008年升总统，2011年接棒CEO，带着公司资产从几百亿膨到2000亿出头，主打科技金融牌子。贝克爱在行业会上吹嘘自己是创新经济的守护者，SVB资本 那块儿也是他和伙伴们从零搞起来的。 2023年3月危机爆发，他被赶下台。5月国会听证会上，他低头念稿子，说对客户损失深表歉意，但责任多推给监管松懈和市场波动。 事后他拿了公司遣散费，卷铺盖回老家，低调度日，没再露面。 SVB的崩盘不是孤例，签名银行和瑞士信贷紧跟着栽跟头，2023年3月这周，美国金融圈像被捅了马蜂窝。SVB资产2090亿，存款1750亿左右，3月9日一天 流出420亿，管理层预计次日再丢1000亿。 储户们尤其是科技圈和风投，手里大额存款超25万刀的部分没保险，闻风就跑。美联储报告直指，SVB的长期债券组合在加息潮下浮亏18亿，管理层卖资产 补窟窿，结果股价崩盘，加速挤兑。 签名银行那边，数字银行部分丢了40亿存款，瑞士信贷全球股东大会上，客户撤资潮让它卖身 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银集团最新发布的全球外汇策略研报对汇市进行了系统性深度剖析，核心围绕美 元走势预测、多币种关联性分析及宏观经济驱动因素展开。报告指出，2025年第四季度美元将延续弱势 格局，但这一趋势可能在2026年末迎来转折点——此前市场普遍预期的美元多年下行周期或提前失去动 能，届时美元将启动复苏进程。 欧元兑英镑Q4区间0.8600-0.8900，英镑在风险偏好上升时表现优异，但英国财政困境及潜在工资服务 价格放缓可能触发2026年英国央行激进降息预期，导致英镑套息溢价迅速消退，11月26日预算案成为关 键风险节点。 欧元兑瑞士法郎Q4区间0.9200-0.9450，尽管市场对瑞士法郎强势预期有所缓和，但"硬资产"需求、瑞士 央行宽松空间受限及国内美元风险对冲需求，仍将支撑瑞士法郎对欧元和美元的相对强势。 报告特别强调，美国经济增长可能通过财政措施和监管放松实现超预期表现，而失业率持续疲软虽未明 确数值，但已成为美元弱势的重要注脚。通胀率虽未直接披露具体数据，但降息预期已隐含通胀压力缓 解的判断。 在行动建议层面，瑞银提出三大策略：在欧元兑美元汇率下跌时布局买入以应对潜在反弹;密切跟踪美 国就业数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international spot gold prices, maintaining above $3,700 per ounce, has led to strong performance in gold-linked financial products, with annualized returns ranging from 2.00% to 4.00% [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Behind Gold Price Increase - The current rise in gold prices is supported by several factors: a favorable macro monetary environment with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased gold reserves by emerging market central banks, and heightened geopolitical risks that enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][5]. - This gold price rally not only continues the traditional safe-haven narrative but also benefits from a global trend of "de-dollarization," which adds strategic value to gold [2][5]. Group 2: Early Profit-Taking in Gold-Linked Products - The frequent early profit-taking in gold-linked financial products reflects both the risk control mechanisms in product design and institutions' cautious outlook on future price volatility [3][5]. - This phenomenon is expected to be more common in the short term, especially in a high-volatility environment, as institutions aim to protect investor interests and stabilize product returns [3][5]. Group 3: Trends in New Gold-Linked Financial Products - Recent trends in gold-linked financial products include innovative designs that go beyond traditional price-linked models, incorporating features like range returns and automatic profit-taking to enhance flexibility and risk mitigation [4][5]. - The asset allocation for these products has expanded to include not only direct gold links but also gold ETFs and actively managed funds focused on gold themes, resulting in improved performance and increased market attention [4][5]. Group 4: Challenges Faced by Financial Institutions - Financial institutions face significant challenges, including the unpredictable nature of gold prices influenced by global political and economic factors, which complicates risk management [6]. - Additionally, institutions must balance innovation in product offerings with compliance to regulatory requirements, making it difficult to attract investors while adhering to dynamic regulatory policies [6]. Group 5: Long-Term Outlook for Gold-Linked Financial Products - Following a recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, gold prices reached a historical high but have since retreated slightly due to market expectations and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Despite the current peak, long-term support for gold prices is anticipated due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and central bank demand, suggesting that gold-linked fixed-income products may still hold investment value [7].

Group 1 - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia experienced a fatal landslide, leading to a long-term disruption in global copper supply [1][3] - The incident resulted in the death of two workers, with five still missing, and production is expected to not return to pre-accident levels until 2027, with a projected 35% decrease in copper and gold output for 2026 [3] - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of its expected production before 2029, indicating a significant impact on the global copper supply chain [3] Group 2 - The copper market has been facing frequent disruptions this year, with aging production facilities and declining resource endowments being major obstacles [3] - The supply-demand balance for copper is expected to remain tight, with actual production often falling short of optimistic forecasts due to various disturbances [3] - The onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to benefit metal prices, including copper, silver, gold, and other strategic metals [4] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) has seen a net inflow for ten consecutive days, reflecting growing interest in the mining and metals sector amid the current market conditions [1][6] - The mining ETF tracks the China Securities Index for non-ferrous metal mining companies, highlighting the value of domestic mineral resources in the context of global competition [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider various ETFs focused on non-ferrous metals, including those linked to the China Securities Index for broader exposure [6]

转自：新华财经 西南期货："逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值 混沌天成期货：美元指数和美债利率同步回升抑制贵金属 申银万国期货：黄金方面长期驱动仍然明确 道明证券（TD Securities)：4000美元的金价是一个真是的可能性 法国外贸银行：珠宝需求走弱将令金价的涨势放缓 西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价 值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储有 望持续降息，为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。因此，贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续，前期多单可继续持 有。 混沌天成期货表示，贵金属较高位短线级别大幅回落，主要受到美元指数反弹以及上方获利盘共同影 响。更重要的是，美股的走势出现趋弱现象，主要源于科技AI行业的短线调整，这一定程度形成负反 馈从而加深市场压力。这是对流动性的考验，贵金属上涨趋势短线整理。不过，地缘形势波动有抬升的 迹象，重大政治事件使得全球政治敏感性显著上升，这对黄金而言存在潜在利好，并加强长期逻辑。 申银万国期货表示，金银涨势暂缓，出现一定调整。本周接连有几位联储官员讲 ...

近期，国际黄金价格屡创新高。当地时间9月23日，COMEX黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司，盘中一度涨至3824.60美元/盎司创盘中历史新高。随着 国际黄金价格走高，国内金饰价格也随之攀升。9月23日，周生生足金首饰价格达到1100元/克，比前一日上涨10元/克；周大福和老凤祥足金首饰升至 1098元/克。 自年初以来，国际现货黄金价格从2625美元/盎司起步，持续攀升，年内国际黄金价格涨幅已接近43%，国内黄金价格上涨约38%。 "黄金价格上涨是美联储政策转向、全球央行购金潮以及地缘政治风险等多重因素共同作用的结果。"中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受《中 国报道》记者采访时说。 美联储降息是最直接的催化剂 北京时间9月18凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次 降息。 "美联储货币政策转向是本轮黄金价格上涨的直接催化剂。"刘英指出，美联储本次降息25个基点，随后大概率还会再降息2次，这种宽松货币政策对黄金 价格上涨形成直接支撑。 美联储如期降息后，市场关注点转向年内后续降息路径。联邦 ...