证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 跨季后，逆回购到期 2 万亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：央行加码呵护，跨季成本逐级攀升 6 月 23-27 日，跨季将至，虽然央行呵护力度接连提升，但是跨季资金成本还 是逐级上台阶。复盘本周资金市场，临近跨季，央行持续加码净投放力度，全周累 计净投放 12672 亿元，为今年以来单周净投放次高。与此同时，6 月中长期资金同 样超额投放，合计投放规模为 3180 亿元，高于 3 月跨季的 1630 亿元。 在央行持续净投放资金的背景下，隔夜利率平稳，DR001 全周基本围绕 1.37% 水平窄幅震荡；R001 除周五小幅升至 1.46%外，前四日同样基本稳定在 1.44%左 右。而跨季资金成本则持续攀升，DR007由周一的 1.51%逐日升至周五的 1.70%， R007 也由 1.56%大幅升至 1.92%。 ►展望：跨季后，流动性或将自发式宽松 往后看，下周一（6 月 30日）资金面将迎来最后考验，隔夜利率预计出现短期 冲高，2022- ...

Meeting Details - The third meeting of the Supervisory Board of Zhejiang Pava New Energy Co., Ltd. was held on June 27, 2025, via communication voting, with all three supervisors present [1]. - The meeting was chaired by the Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Chen Huaiyi, and complied with relevant laws, regulations, and the company's articles of association [1]. Resolutions Passed - The Supervisory Board approved the proposal to temporarily use part of the idle raised funds to supplement working capital, which is expected to improve the efficiency of fund utilization [1][3]. - The approved amount for temporary use is up to RMB 150 million (including this amount), and the decision aligns with the regulations of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the company's fund management system [3]. - The voting results were unanimous, with 3 votes in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [3].

Group 1 - The third supervisory board meeting of Hainan Huluwa Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. was held on June 27, 2025, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [1][2] - The meeting was attended by all three supervisors, and the chairman of the supervisory board presided over the meeting [1][2] - The supervisory board approved the proposal to temporarily use idle raised funds to supplement the company's working capital, which aligns with regulatory requirements and does not affect the normal investment plan of the raised funds [2] Group 2 - The voting results showed unanimous support with 3 votes in favor, 0 abstentions, and 0 votes against [2] - The supervisory board believes that the temporary use of idle funds will enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and is in the best interest of all shareholders [2]

Core Viewpoint - Fujian Shida Group Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in its big data business revenue, with a 32.87 percentage point drop in revenue rate, highlighting the need for detailed disclosures regarding customer and supplier dynamics, revenue recognition, and the sustainability of its business model [1][2]. Financial Performance - The big data business generated revenue of 293.17 million yuan, accounting for 94.97% of total revenue in 2024 [2][12]. - The company experienced a net profit attributable to shareholders of -72.43 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [1]. Customer and Supplier Dynamics - In 2024, three out of the top five customers were new, contributing 233 million yuan, which is 75.57% of total sales, with the largest customer accounting for 60.22% [1][9]. - The top five suppliers included three new suppliers, with a total procurement amount of 247 million yuan, representing 67.65% of total purchases, and the largest supplier accounting for 56.59% [1][9]. Revenue Recognition and Business Model - The company confirmed that revenue is primarily recognized upon project acceptance, with significant revenue concentrated in the fourth quarter due to project completion timelines [8][12]. - The system integration business remains the core model, with a focus on customized solutions based on client needs, leading to a substantial increase in the share of intelligent computing services [12][13]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The company is actively expanding its presence in the intelligent computing market, with a projected increase in revenue from this sector to 73.61% in 2024, reflecting an 85.96% year-on-year growth [13]. - The establishment of a cross-border data service platform is expected to enhance revenue streams, with significant orders already in place for 2025 [13][14]. Risk Factors - The company faces market competition risks as the big data market expands, potentially leading to price reductions and profit margin pressures [15]. - Regulatory risks related to data security and compliance costs are increasing, which may impact operational costs and project execution [15].

根据最新数据统计，央行公开市场下周将面临20275亿元逆回购到期的流动性回笼压力。这一规模较本 周的9603亿元大幅增加，显示出市场流动性管理将迎来重要考验。 从具体到期安排来看，下周一至周五的逆回购到期金额呈现递增态势。周一到期规模为2205亿元，周二 增至4065亿元，周三为3653亿元，周四达到5093亿元，周五则攀升至5259亿元。这种分布格局表明，周 后半段将成为流动性回笼的集中时点。 当前货币市场环境下，央行持续通过公开市场操作维护流动性合理充裕。6月26日，央行开展5093亿元7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率维持在1.40%。当日有2035亿元逆回购到期，实现单日净投放3058亿元，体 现出央行对市场流动性的呵护态度。 临近季末时点，资金面呈现出复杂的变化特征。银行间质押式回购利率出现分化走势，隔夜品种下行至 1.37%附近，而14天期品种则上行至1.7557%，创下逾一个月新高。这种期限结构的变化反映出市场对 短期流动性的谨慎预期。 债券市场方面，国债期货表现相对平稳。30年期主力合约微涨0.10%，10年期主力合约小幅下跌 0.02%。银行间现券收益率多数回落，10年期国债活跃券收益率下行0.8 ...

周五A股市场出现了分化态势。 其中，前期领航的银行股出现盘中冲高受阻后回落的态势，上证综指、上证50指数等股指也有所回落。 但，算力股、有色金属股大力扬升，深证成指、创业板指反复逞强。看来，当前A股较为活跃的动量资 金正在积极调仓，从而带来结构性的新机会。 全球流动性宽松预期渐趋强烈 调仓中催生新结构性机会 由此可见，短线A股市场所处的环境较前期有了一定程度的转变，一方面是全球流动性开始宽松，这对 全球商品价格、权益资产均会带来积极的推动力，就如同前文提及的国际铜价回升、A股资源股走高。 另一方面则是美联储降息预期升温，对整个科技主线也有着较为积极的推动力，这可能也是美股纳斯达 克指数创新高，A股算力股在近期持续复苏、回升的推力。主要是因为美元降息会使得科技创新的资金 成本降低，进而驱动科技创新的进度。历史也多次证实且未来还会证实，低美元利率对创新药等科创产 业方向有着积极的推动力。所以，随着近期美元降息预期的升温，创新药、算力等科技创新领域会再度 成为各路资金竞相加仓的方向。 理解这一点，就可以理解近期A股动量资金开始调仓的逻辑，因为在周四，热门的券商股冲高受阻，在 周五，去年以来一直是强势主线的银行股冲高 ...

Core Insights - The total scale of public funds in China reached 33.74 trillion yuan by the end of May 2025, marking a historical high and an increase of 625.33 billion yuan from April, with a month-on-month growth rate of 1.87% [1][2] Fund Categories Summary Stock Funds - The scale of stock funds in May was 4.58 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 34.31 million yuan from April, reflecting a growth rate of 0.07%. However, the number of shares decreased by 46.23 billion to 3.46 trillion, indicating net outflows [1][2][3] Mixed Funds - Mixed funds saw a decrease in scale to 3.57 trillion yuan, down 134.43 million yuan from April, representing a decline of 0.38%. The number of shares also fell by 26.48 billion to 3.03 trillion, reaching a historical low [1][2][3] Bond Funds - Bond funds increased in scale to 6.78 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 221.88 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.38%. The number of shares grew by 159.49 billion to 5.79 trillion [1][2][3] Money Market Funds - Money market funds reached a scale of 14.40 trillion yuan, increasing by 407.13 billion yuan from April, with a growth rate of 2.91%. The number of shares rose by 407.94 billion to 14.40 trillion, marking a significant milestone [1][2][3] QDII Funds - The scale of cross-border funds (QDII) reached 654.28 billion yuan, with an increase of 10.25 billion yuan from April, reflecting a growth rate of 1.59%. However, the number of shares decreased by 16.62 billion to 569.33 billion, although the scale achieved a historical high [1][2][3] Market Trends - In May, the A-share market exhibited a "high rebound and volatile repair" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.09% and the CSI 300 increasing by 1.85%, which supported the net value growth of stock funds [2][3] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, while technology stocks experienced a pullback, leading to a shift of funds from overvalued sectors to defensive assets [3] - The People's Bank of China implemented reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, which boosted bond prices and net value growth [3] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds was encouraged, with credit bond ETF scales surpassing 300 billion yuan, attracting significant fund inflows [3] - The demand for money market funds surged due to a combination of deposit migration and risk aversion, as bank deposit rates declined significantly [3] - The performance of Hong Kong and US stocks was strong in May, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 1.15% and the S&P 500 recovering from trade friction impacts, attracting investments in overseas equity assets [4] - The growth of public fund scales in May was primarily driven by money market funds (contributing 65.1%) and bond funds (contributing 35.5%), reflecting investor preference for low-risk, high-liquidity assets during a declining interest rate cycle [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 流动性边际宽松，国债期货小幅反弹 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性， 市场流动性边际宽松。回顾方面，5 月信贷、通胀数据表现偏弱，政策托底 需要偏宽松的货币环境，未来政策面降息预期升温，国债期货的中长期向上 逻辑较为牢靠。不过后续政策仍需等待 7 月重磅会议在政策面的指引，短期 内驱动动能预计有限。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 银行大规模定增 证券研究报告 微观流动性跟踪(2025.6.9-2025.6.22) 投资要点：六月伊以冲突逐步缓和，美联储已有两位官员表示可能尽快降息，同时中美贸易依然 处于谈判阶段，外围风险暂缓。从资金面来看，偏股型公募基金新发份额较上期回暖，存量股票 型 ETF 净赎回额收窄，南向资金持续净流入，表明投资者信心增加，风险偏好提升，但当前依然 处于攻坚阶段，同时近期多家商业银行大规模定增也带动融资规模显著提升。后续一方面需关注 中美谈判是否持续有新进展，另一方面关注国内下个月的中央政治局会议对当前局势的最新研判。 ⚫ 微观流动性整体：偏股公募新发份额回暖，南向资金持续净流入。 本期资金供给合计 292 亿元，资金需求 4513 亿元，整体对于市场净流出 4221 亿元。1）偏股 型公募新发份额回暖；2）南向资金持续净流入；3）融资规模显著提升主因多家商业银行增发。 ⚫ 股权融资：融资规模显著提升。 以发行日统计，本期股权融资规模 4,307.79 亿元，上期 IPO+再融资整体募资规模达 52.59 亿 元，本期较上期整体募资规模大幅上升，主因本期中国银行、交通银行、邮储银行均有大 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-27 市场流动性概况 2025-06-26，股指板块成交4550.19亿元，较上一交易日变动-26.80%；持仓金额10135.30亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.83%；成交持仓比为44.51%。 国债板块成交2499.35亿元，较上一交易日变动-30.48%；持仓金额8863.54亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.05%；成交持 仓比为28.93%。 基本金属板块成交2959.58亿元，较上一交易日变动+30.63%；持仓金额3963.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.46%； 成交持仓比为119.65%。 贵金属板块成交3209.22亿元，较上一交易日变动-20.27%；持仓金额4362.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.27%；成 交持仓比为79.15%。 能源化工板块成交5462.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.83%；持仓金额3913.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.13%；成 交持仓比为97.88%。 农产品板块成交3397.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.62%；持仓金额5595.45亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.13%；成 交持仓比为60.37%。 黑色建材板块成交185 ...