1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, the market shows various trends and risks, and different trading strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each commodity [5][7][9] - Some commodities have experienced significant price changes, and investors are advised to take corresponding profit - taking or risk - control measures [8][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Previous trading day: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.34%, 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.02% respectively [5] - Market situation: The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The IMF slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for this year. The macro - economy has stable data but weak recovery momentum, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] - Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6] Stock Index Futures - Previous trading day: Stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 1.14%, 0.09%, 2.93%, and 2.16% respectively [7] - Market situation: The domestic economy is stable but has weak recovery momentum, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market [7] - Strategy: It is expected that volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8] Precious Metals - Previous trading day: The closing price of the gold main contract was 938.98, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 949.76; the closing price of the silver main contract was 11,533, up 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,732 [9] - Market situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected Fed rate cuts also support precious metals. However, the recent increase has been significant [9] - Strategy: Previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated for profit [10] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Previous trading day: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,050 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [11] - Market situation: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. Supply capacity is still excessive, and recent output has declined. Rebar inventory is higher than last year. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to rebar [11][12] - Strategy: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change. Investors can consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [12] Iron Ore - Previous trading day: Iron ore futures corrected significantly. The spot price of PB fines was 778 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special fines was 700 yuan/ton [14] - Market situation: National pig iron production supports demand. Supply has increased since the second quarter, but imports and domestic production are still down year - on - year. Port inventory is lower than last year. In the short term, supply - demand supports prices, but may weaken in the medium term [14] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [14] Coking Coal and Coke - Previous trading day: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. Coking coal supply pressure is not significant, and demand shows some improvement. Coke prices have been adjusted, and the first - round increase is gradually taking effect [16][17] - Market situation: Coking coal production is normal, and demand for replenishment exists. Coke production and demand are relatively stable [16][17] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [17] Ferroalloys - Previous trading day: The manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.14% to 5,738 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.44% to 5,378 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined [19] - Market situation: Manganese ore shipments from Gabon decreased, and Australian ore supply increased. Port manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and prices stabilized at a low level. Ferroalloy production costs increased, but demand was weak, and supply was excessive in the short term [19][20] - Strategy: In the short term, supply may remain excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [20] Crude Oil - Previous trading day: INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the expected signing of a Middle - East peace agreement [21] - Market situation: CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on crude oil. US oil and gas rig counts decreased. The Russia - Ukraine war continues to support prices, but the expected peace agreement in the Middle East is negative for prices [21][22] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the main crude oil contract [23] Fuel Oil - Previous trading day: Fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The spot spreads of Asian ultra - low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils declined. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and there is a shortage of medium - sulfur fuel oil [24] - Market situation: The Russia - Ukraine war supports prices, but the easing of Middle - East geopolitical risks leads to a decline in crude oil and fuel oil [24] - Strategy: Expand the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils for the main fuel oil contract [25] Synthetic Rubber - Previous trading day: The synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.42%. The mainstream price in Shandong decreased to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [26] - Market situation: The raw material side is bearish, and private supply is expected to increase. The utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity is high, demand is better than expected, and inventory shows different trends [26] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate [27] Natural Rubber - Previous trading day: The main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber fell 0.97% and 0.79% respectively. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,300 yuan/ton, and the basis widened [28] - Market situation: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment is bearish. Supply disturbances have slowed down, and demand from tire factories has decreased during the holiday. After the holiday, supply disturbances are uncertain, and demand may recover [28] - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] PVC - Previous trading day: The PVC main contract fell 0.43%. Spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [30] - Market situation: The oversupply situation persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. Supply capacity utilization decreased, demand from downstream industries was weak, and inventory increased [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [30] Urea - Previous trading day: The urea main contract fell 0.50%. The price in Shandong Linyi was stable at 1,520 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31] - Market situation: After the holiday, focus on exports and cost changes. Supply has increased, and demand from downstream products has fluctuated slightly. Inventory is higher than expected [31] - Strategy: The downward space is limited [32] PX - Previous trading day: The PX main contract fell 1.58%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 220 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [33] - Market situation: PX load increased, and some devices are under maintenance. Imports increased in August. In the short term, supply - demand is looser, and the cost side is weak, but the PXN spread is relatively strong [33] - Strategy: PX may adjust weakly in the short term. Pay attention to position management, external crude oil changes, and macro - policy changes [33] PTA - Previous trading day: The PTA2601 main contract fell 1.6%. Supply decreased due to some device shutdowns, and demand increased as polyester load rose. Processing fees were under pressure [34][35] - Market situation: In the short term, processing fees may improve, and inventory is low, but demand improvement is limited, and external crude oil prices are weak [35] - Strategy: PTA may oscillate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [35] Ethylene Glycol - Previous trading day: The ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.24%. Supply increased as some devices restarted, and inventory increased. Demand improvement was limited, and the cost of crude oil was weak [36] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [36] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Short Fibers - Previous trading day: The short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 1.24%. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand improved slightly. Cost support was weak [37][38] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [38] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Bottle Chips - Previous trading day: The bottle - chip 2512 main contract fell 1.17%. Supply increased, and demand from the downstream soft - drink industry decreased slightly, but exports remained high [39] - Market situation: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to risk control [39] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control [39] Lithium Carbonate - Previous trading day: The main contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. Inventory is gradually decreasing but remains high [40] - Market situation: In the short term, it may return to a supply - surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [40][41] - Strategy: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [41] Copper - Previous trading day: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low due to uncertainties in US tariffs on China. The spot price increased, but downstream buying was weak [43] - Market situation: The closure of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Goldman Sachs' price forecast is lower than expected. Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties [43] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the Shanghai copper main contract [44] Tin - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.76% to 280,000 yuan/ton. The supply from the mine end is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Inventory is decreasing [45] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] Nickel - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton. Concerns about supply resurfaced, but the price of high - grade nickel ore is supported. Stainless - steel consumption is weak, and inventory is relatively high [48] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Previous trading day: The main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil fell 1.16% and 0.51% respectively. The spot prices were stable. US and Brazilian soybean production is progressing smoothly, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [50] - Market situation: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the profit of oil mills has declined. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and soybean oil consumption is under pressure [50][51] - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options after adjustment. Temporarily hold off on trading soybean oil [51] Palm Oil - Previous trading day: Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. Inventory in September increased, and exports in October showed an increase. Chinese imports increased in August, and inventory is at a medium level [52] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Previous trading day: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has purchased a large amount of Australian rapeseed. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil increased in August. Inventory is at different levels [54][55] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] Cotton - Previous trading day: Domestic cotton oscillated, and the outer - market cotton rebounded. US cotton production is expected to increase, and there are concerns about Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic cotton production is expected to increase significantly [57][58] - Market situation: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure. The domestic - foreign price difference is large, and there is hedging pressure [58] - Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [59] Sugar - Previous trading day: Zhengzhou sugar fell to a new low, and the outer - market sugar rebounded. Brazilian sugar production increased in September, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the new season. Chinese imports increased [60] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The short - term price may have support [61][62] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [62] Apples - Previous trading day: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. Early - maturing apples had different price trends, and late - maturing apples are about to be listed. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly [63] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [63][64] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [64] Live Pigs - Previous trading day: The national average price of live pigs rose to 10.89 yuan/kg. The supply in the north has increased, and the price has stabilized and rebounded. The supply in the south has increased, and the price is stable. The inventory of sows has decreased slightly [65] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] Eggs - Previous trading day: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was stable, and that in the main sales areas decreased slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory of laying hens is at a high level. The consumption after the holiday is weak [67] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] Corn and Corn Starch - Previous trading day: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. US corn harvesting is progressing smoothly. Domestic demand for corn is slightly increasing, and the inventory of corn starch is at a high level [69][70] - Market situation: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71] - Strategy: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.384 | 102.292 | 105.775 | 105.665 | 108.170 | 107.865 | 114.76 | 114.41 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.370 | 102.274 | 105.685 | 105.570 | 108.065 | 107.750 | 114.44 | 114.11 | | | 涨跌 | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.090 | 0.095 | 0.105 | 0.115 | 0.320 | 0.300 ...

转自：智通财经 【大消费板块异动拉升 国光连锁3连板】智通财经10月15日电，大消费板块异动拉升，国光连锁3连 板，上海家化、真爱美家此前涨停，供销大集、水星家纺等跟涨。消息面上，近日经济形势专家和企业 家座谈会召开，会上强调要加力提效实施逆周期调节，用足用好政策资源，以改革办法打通堵点卡点。 要持续用力扩大内需、做强国内大循环，不断形成扩内需的新增长点。 ...

2025 年 10 月 15 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡 白银期货将 偏强宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、原油、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4549 和 4609 点，支撑位 4498 和 4447 点；IH2512 阻力位 2977 和 2990 点，支撑位 2941 和 2922 点；IC2512 阻力位 7129 和 7262 点，支撑位 6925 和 6797 点；IM2512 阻力位 7257 和 7365 点，支撑位 7095 和 6995 点。 十年期国债期货主力合约 T2512 大概率 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3865.23 points, down 0.62%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11 points, down 2.54%. The STAR Market 50 index fell by 4.26%, and the ChiNext index decreased by 3.99%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 25,966 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 11 sectors saw gains, with banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors leading the increases. In contrast, the telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced significant declines. Notably, indices related to cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, and selected insurance performed actively [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 index fell by 0.16% and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.76%. Notable gainers included Walmart, which rose nearly 5%, and Caterpillar, which increased by over 4%. Conversely, the tech giants index fell by 1.26%, with Nvidia dropping over 4% and Amazon declining by more than 1% [2][4] Economic Insights - The Chinese Premier Li Qiang held a meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs to discuss the current economic situation and future work strategies. He emphasized the need for a broader perspective to accurately assess the resilience of China's economy amid international changes and to strengthen confidence while addressing issues. Li highlighted the importance of implementing counter-cyclical adjustments and expanding domestic demand [10][12] - The meeting revealed that 1,734 stocks rose while 3,554 fell, indicating a turbulent market with 146 stocks rising over 5% and 446 falling over 5%. The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a focus on macroeconomic financial data [10][12] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Corporation due to their involvement in U.S. investigations that harm Chinese enterprises' rights. This action reflects ongoing tensions in international trade relations [13] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued guidelines to support energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations in key industries such as electricity, steel, and chemicals. The initiative aims to align with national goals for carbon neutrality and promote green economic transformation [14][15][16] - China's manned spaceflight sector achieved a milestone with the registration of its first international standard, enhancing its influence in global aerospace standards [17]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang emphasizes the resilience and vitality of China's economy amidst challenges, highlighting the importance of macroeconomic policies and the need for continuous efforts to stimulate domestic demand and enhance market vitality [3][4]. Economic Situation - Experts and entrepreneurs noted that despite facing difficulties, China's economy has shown strong resilience and progress this year, with new bright spots emerging [1][3]. - The meeting acknowledged the complex external environment and challenges in economic operations, but emphasized the effective implementation of proactive macro policies by various regions and departments [3]. Policy Recommendations - There is a call for enhanced implementation of counter-cyclical adjustments and sustained efforts in total policy measures to boost economic recovery [4]. - The focus is on expanding domestic demand, strengthening the domestic circulation, and effectively utilizing various consumption promotion measures to stimulate market vitality [4]. Industry Development - The meeting highlighted the need to create a first-class industrial ecosystem, addressing issues of disorder and irrational competition within industries [4]. - It emphasized the importance of deepening cooperation among enterprises of different sizes and accelerating the transformation of technological achievements [4]. Foreign Trade and Investment - Support for stabilizing foreign trade and investment is crucial, with an emphasis on exploring diversified markets and improving overseas service systems [4]. - The implementation of significant foreign investment projects is also a priority to enhance economic growth [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current crude oil market faces multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and cooling geopolitical risks, with weak fundamental driving forces [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut still exists, providing some support for precious metals. However, the market is at a high level with increasing divergence, so it's advisable to mainly observe [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors like inventory changes and US tariff pressure [3]. - For manganese silicon, the cost support is acceptable, but the industry continues to be in a loss state. The demand is affected by trade frictions, and the price may have a downward space after the peak season [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to general post - holiday demand, slow de - stocking, and insufficient cost support [4]. - For live pigs, the short - term pressure on the breeding end to sell still exists, and the space for a sharp rebound is small. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For palm oil, there is strong support, and it's advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [5]. - For domestic soybeans, the situation of increased supply and weak demand continues in the short - term, but the downward space is limited, and it's advisable to try low - buying [6]. - For natural rubber, the current valuation is slightly low, and it's recommended to operate cautiously due to the greater impact of the macro - environment than the fundamentals [6]. - For PTA, the impact of short - term downstream demand expectations and crude oil on the price is large, and the benefits of maintenance are limited [7]. - For silver, it may fluctuate more in the short - term, and it's necessary to be cautious about chasing high [7]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, the operation difficulty is increased, and it's advisable to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and think in a fluctuating way [8]. - For methanol, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [10]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it's recommended to hold short - positions cautiously [11]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, while demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day and 699,000 barrels per day respectively. Russian crude oil exports reached the highest level since June 2023 [1]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible stop to balance - sheet contraction and another 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [1]. Coking Coal - The inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly after the holiday. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.95% (- 0.05%), and the coking coal inventory was 819.32 (- 69.15) [3]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 44.18% (- 1.50%), and the daily output was 29,490 tons (- 335 tons). The cost support is acceptable, but the industry is in a loss state [3]. Steel - On October 14, domestic steel prices continued to decline. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,224 yuan/ton (- 11 yuan/ton) [4]. Live Pigs - On October 14, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.48 yuan/kg (+ 0.1%), and the price of eggs was 7.60 yuan/kg (- 2.1%) [4]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may regulate the export of crude palm oil, and the B50 plan may reduce global edible oil supply. However, the short - term price trend is still supported [5]. Soybeans - Brazil is expected to export 7.31 million tons of soybeans, 2.06 million tons of soybean meal, and 6.46 million tons of corn in October, all higher than last week's expectations [5]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices are firm, and domestic mid - stream inventory is decreasing seasonally. In September, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history [6]. PTA - The PTA load dropped to 75.4%. The new device of Xin Fengming was postponed due to low processing fees, and a new Indian device is planned to be put into production [7]. Silver - The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (+ 0.2 percentage points) [7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Premier Li Qiang emphasized increasing counter - cyclical adjustment and expanding domestic demand [8]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, downstream demand has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1,256 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), the inventory increased by 5.84%, and the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased by 4.9% [10]. PVC - The PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63% (+ 1.21%), social inventory increased by 1.84%, and the average profit of production enterprises was negative [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on implementing counter-cyclical adjustments and enhancing macroeconomic policies to stabilize and stimulate economic growth in response to current challenges [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Measures - The government emphasizes the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is seen as a critical period for economic performance [2][4]. - New incremental measures are expected, including increased fiscal spending, potential interest rate cuts by the central bank, and stronger support for the real estate market [2][4]. - The issuance of long-term special bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan is aimed at supporting key projects and expanding effective investment [5]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a key strategy for stabilizing growth, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending and effective investment [5]. - Recent data shows a decline in domestic demand indicators, with retail sales growth slowing to 3.4% year-on-year in August, the lowest for the year [5]. - The government is implementing new policy tools, including a 500 billion yuan financial instrument aimed at bolstering project capital [6]. Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment - The government is committed to stabilizing foreign trade and investment, with efforts to diversify markets and enhance overseas service systems [6]. - In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade reached 33.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [6]. - The trade value in September was 4.04 trillion yuan, marking an 8% increase year-on-year, the highest monthly growth rate this year [6]. Group 4: Industry Competition and Governance - The government is taking steps to address irrational competition in various industries, promoting cooperation among businesses and enhancing the innovation ecosystem [7][8]. - Recent measures include the release of industry-specific growth plans and regulations to maintain fair market competition [7]. - Data indicates improvements in industry profitability, with raw material manufacturing profits rising by 22.1% year-on-year from January to August [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, for different futures varieties, there are trend - bearish, oscillation - bearish, oscillating, oscillation - bullish, and trend - bullish judgments. For example, log and liquefied petroleum gas are oscillation - bearish, while two - year and ten - year treasury bonds are oscillation - bullish [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillating, and bullish judgments for futures varieties. For example, Shanghai silver is bearish, while palm oil is bullish [6]. - In the stock index futures, it is advisable to continue considering the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. In the bond futures, it is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [12][13]. - For the black industry, steel may oscillate and adjust, and iron ore should hold short positions or reduce positions on dips. Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For non - ferrous metals and new materials, it is advisable to sell on rallies for aluminum, and for alumina, it is advisable to sell on rallies while paying attention to the policy changes at the Guinean mine end. For zinc, it is advisable to hold short positions [22]. - For agricultural products, it is advisable to sell on rallies for cotton, short - term holders should leave the market and wait and see for sugar, and for eggs, it is advisable to lightly short near - month contracts on rallies [29][30][32]. - For energy and chemicals, it is advisable to continue holding short positions for crude oil, and fuel oil prices will fluctuate with oil prices [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The Chinese government emphasizes efforts to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic economic cycle. The US government's actions, such as the 301 investigation and tariff threats, have an impact on the market. The Fed may continue to cut interest rates, and the US government shutdown affects the economic situation [9][10][11]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a pattern of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The focus has returned to foreign trade conflicts, but the actual impact may be limited. It is advisable to continue considering the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12]. Bond Futures - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds. The market is affected by foreign trade conflicts, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [13][15]. Black Industry Steel and Iron Ore - From a macro perspective, Sino - US trade frictions have a negative impact on sentiment, but the impact on real supply and demand is expected to be limited. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. Steel may oscillate and adjust, and iron ore should hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [16]. Coal and Coking - Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate in the short term. The supply of coal and coking is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions. The downstream inventory is at a high level, and the short - term demand support is weak [17]. Ferroalloys - Although the settlement electricity cost of silicon - iron plants in Ningxia is expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter, the impact on the cost side is limited. It is recommended to close out short positions on dips and look for opportunities to go long on dips [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash should be held with a bearish mindset or take short - term profits. Glass should be on the sidelines. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to resolve. The glass market is affected by the decline in the futures price, and the mid - stream inventory needs to be digested [20]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is advisable to sell on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to find the bottom, and it is advisable to sell on rallies while paying attention to the policy changes at the Guinean mine end [22]. Zinc - The domestic spot trading of zinc is light, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to hold short positions [22]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the strong de - stocking state supports the price, and lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and it is advisable to layout selling call options. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate narrowly in a range, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations at the lower edge [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - With a complex upstream - downstream game, increasing supply pressure and weak demand, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The cotton market is affected by the macro - environment, and the demand is uncertain [29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is bearish, and the new - sugar supply pressure is expected. However, attention should be paid to the cost support. It is advisable for short - term holders to leave the market and wait and see [30]. Eggs - The supply - demand situation of eggs is loose, and it is advisable to lightly short near - month contracts on rallies while paying attention to the spot price trend and the impact of vegetable prices [32]. Apples - It is advisable to lightly go long on dips. The late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions are gradually on the market, and attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the quality [34]. Corn - It is advisable to go long on the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there may be support from state - owned grain depots [34]. Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, and attention should be paid to the opening price of new - season red dates [36]. Pigs - The supply - demand situation after the double festivals is still supply - strong and demand - weak. It is advisable to hold short positions on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The contradiction of oversupply in crude oil continues to materialize, and the price center of gravity moves down steadily. It is advisable to continue holding short positions. The oil price may be repaired in the future [38]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price will fluctuate with the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat [38]. Plastic - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to high supply pressure [41]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to continue to be weak due to supply increase expectations and macro - environment uncertainties. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting on sharp drops [42]. Methanol - Methanol has a large port inventory pressure, but there are some bullish factors in the later stage. It is advisable to reduce short positions and wait for a rebound [43]. Caustic Soda - The futures price of caustic soda is expected to oscillate due to the impact of warehouse receipts and the weakening of alumina prices [43]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the oil price. The current oil price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, and the asphalt demand is in a critical period [44]. Printing Paper - In the off - season, Chenming's resumption of production may lead to oversupply. The fundamentals are weak, but the low - valued disk has some support, and it is expected to oscillate [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester chain is expected to continue to oscillate weakly due to the weak supply - demand structure and insufficient cost support [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG supply is abundant, and the CP price may strengthen in the short - term due to peak - season stocking but will follow the oil price in the long - term. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view in the long - term [49]. Pulp - The spot price of pulp is near the bottom, and the 01 contract has less pressure from new warehouse receipts. It is advisable to observe the inventory reduction at ports and the spot trading situation. If the spot price is stable, it is advisable to go long on the 01 contract on dips [50]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the downstream demand is stable. It is advisable to observe and operate with caution [51]. Urea - It is advisable to pay attention to the impact of cost and supply changes on urea futures and maintain an oscillating mindset [52]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to continue to be weak due to weak downstream procurement and macro - sentiment. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting on sharp drops [53].

Report Information - Report Title: Morning Meeting Minutes, Issue (186) in 2025 - Release Date: October 15, 2025 - Research Department: Zhongyuan Futures Research and Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with multiple factors influencing various markets. The Chinese economy shows signs of recovery, but concerns remain due to external trade frictions and internal structural adjustments. Different commodity markets have distinct supply - demand dynamics and price trends, and the stock market is expected to be in a state of high - level volatility in the fourth quarter [5][6][7][16] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Macro News - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem. China also took counter - measures against South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's US subsidiaries in response to US trade investigations [5] - The Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a potential 25 - basis - point rate cut this month. The Chinese central bank aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [6] - US grain shipments to China have significantly declined, with potential losses for US soybean exports. Chinese authorities launched investigations on the shipping and shipbuilding industries and emphasized measures to stabilize industrial growth [6][7] - National enterprise sales revenue has shown a steady upward trend, and tax revenue has been growing positively since February [7] 3.2 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemical Industry**: On October 15, most chemical futures contracts showed price declines. For example, coking coal dropped by 0.867%, coke by 1.360%, and PTA by 0.766%. Only 20 - numbered rubber, methanol, paper pulp, LPG, and РХ showed price increases [3] - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products had price increases, such as yellow soybean No. 1 (0.784%), yellow soybean No. 2 (0.390%), and soybean meal (0.448%), while others like rapeseed oil (- 0.412%) and palm oil (- 0.107%) declined [3] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On October 14, peanut futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has regional differences, and the current price is near the lower edge of the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the new - grain listing rhythm [10] - **Sugar**: On October 14, sugar futures fell below the key support level. Brazilian sugar supply is increasing, and domestic northern sugar mills are starting production with low inventory. It is advisable to wait and watch, focusing on Brazilian crushing data and domestic production progress [10] - **Corn**: On October 14, corn futures showed a weakening trend. Supply pressure from new grain listing is dominant, and it is expected to continue its weak trend. Attention should be paid to the support range of 2050 - 2080 yuan [10] - **Pigs**: The pig market is under pressure due to concentrated post - festival supply and reduced consumption. It is in a state of deep loss and is expected to continue weakening [10] - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is slightly increasing in the short term. Futures can consider a small - volume long - position in the far - month contract and a calendar spread strategy [10][12] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has a slight increase. Supply is affected by some enterprise maintenance, and demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender on the 15th [11][12] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. Supply is supported by enterprise production reduction and maintenance, but demand lacks impetus. The 2601 contract is under pressure [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are stable, but steel mills' demand is weakening. They are expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [12] 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: After China's trade counter - measures, the US has shown a willingness to ease tensions, and market sentiment has improved. However, aluminum inventory has increased, and there is pressure on the premium. Short - term price corrections should be noted [12][13] - **Alumina**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The 2601 contract is running weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are weakening. Terminal demand is poor after the festival, and inventory is accumulating slightly. Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [13] - **Ferroalloys**: The black - series is weak, and double - silicon is under pressure. Cost support has weakened, and the short - term trend is bearish [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On October 14, the futures price slightly increased. Supply has growth potential, and demand is mixed. Attention should be paid to the 74400 - yuan pressure level [13][14] 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On October 14, A - share indices declined. The stock market is affected by trade frictions and Fed policies. Trend investors can consider low - buying when the index stabilizes, and volatility investors can consider long - volatility strategies [14][16]