Report Title - Stock Index Monthly Report: The AI technology wave is still spreading, and domestic macro policies are worth looking forward to [2] Core Views - **Macro**: In the short term, macro disturbances at home and abroad will continue in October. Overseas, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of October and whether employment and inflation data support rate cuts. In China, there will be a series of macro events in October, and overall, short - term macro disturbances to the market will increase, but medium - to - long - term policy guidance is still bullish [4]. - **Mesoeconomics**: New home sales in the real estate market have recovered under policy stimulus and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The service industry is structurally differentiated and remains resilient at high levels. The profitability of cyclical enterprises recovers weakly, consumer subsidies restart, and manufacturing exports re - balance after tariff policy disturbances. The domestic economy remains in a weak reality stage, and attention should be paid to weak recovery opportunities under anti - involution and domestic demand - boosting policies [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose, and overseas liquidity tends to be loose under the optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. The stock market has obtained leveraged funds and funds from the transfer of household deposits, but the pressure of restricted stock sales continues to increase, market divergence emerges, and it is more difficult to push the market higher after reaching a high level [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term sharp rise, the valuations of various indices have entered relatively high historical levels. The stock - bond risk premium at home and abroad is low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the valuation of the broad - based index market is high, especially for the growth style. The risk premium index at home and abroad has dropped to a low level, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. However, excess liquidity has accelerated the entry of speculative funds. In October, with macro - policy expectations and the valuation switch in the fourth quarter, the cyclical style has room for a supplementary rise. Without significant macro - negatives, the market is expected to rise inertia - ally, but volatility and risks at high levels will increase. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for stock indices in October, buy IF and IH on sharp drops, or focus on short - term arbitrage opportunities by going long on IH and IF and short on IM and IC [4]. Market Review Global Stock Market Performance - In the past month, the Hang Seng Tech Index led the rise, while the German stock market led the decline. The performance order is Hang Seng Tech > ChiNext Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > Dow Jones Index > Nikkei 225 > CSI 300 > NASDAQ > FTSE Europe > Shanghai Composite Index > German DAX [8]. Industry Performance - In the past month, the new energy sector led the rise, while the comprehensive finance sector led the decline. The order is new energy > non - ferrous metals > electronics > real estate > automobiles... > commercial retail > non - bank finance > military industry > banks > comprehensive finance [12]. Futures Performance - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.04%, 0.15%, 1.15%, and 1.36% respectively, with the discounts of IC and IM narrowing significantly. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.05%, - 0.08%, - 0.09%, and - 0.12% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM expanding slightly. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) changed by 0%, 0.15%, 0.77%, and 0.73% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IC and IM converging significantly [20]. Fund Flows Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds - In September, margin trading funds inflowed 167.39 billion yuan to reach 2.43 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly by 0.13% to 2.54%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3,696.29 billion yuan, an increase of 190.78 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 2062.01 billion shares, with a net subscription of 73.41 billion shares from the previous month, and a net subscription of 21.02 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 88.37 billion yuan [23]. Industrial Capital - In September, equity financing was 155.34 billion yuan, with 8 companies. Among them, IPO financing was 10.63 billion yuan, private placement was 144.71 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.5 billion yuan. The equity financing scale rebounded significantly to a neutral level. The market value of restricted stock sales (including additional issuance, placement, rights issue, and equity incentives) in September was 305.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 233.77 billion yuan from the previous month, and it was the second consecutive month of reduction this year, with a cumulative reduction of 2,586.82 billion yuan this year [26]. Liquidity Monetary Injection - In September, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 6,949.4 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase injection was 7,339.6 billion yuan, with a net monetary injection of 39.02 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business remained loose. The MLF injection in September was 600 billion yuan, and the maturity was 300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 7 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is relatively loose [28]. Monetary Demand - In August, the issuance of national bonds was 1,490.49 billion yuan, and the maturity was 762.12 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 728.37 billion yuan. The issuance of local bonds was 851.9 billion yuan, and the maturity was 405.9 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 446 billion yuan. The issuance of other bonds was 5,760.34 billion yuan, and the maturity was 5,825.27 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 64.92 billion yuan. The total bond market issuance was 8,102.74 billion yuan, and the maturity was 6,993.29 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 1,109.44 billion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market is strong, driven by the front - loading of financing demand for national and local government bonds [31]. Fund Prices - In September, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 7.8bp, 11.4bp, and 4.8bp respectively to 1.44%, 1.53%, and 1.38%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 10.3bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 1bp to 1.66%. The fund rate is significantly lower than the 1 - year MLF rate of 2% and slightly higher than the policy rate DR007 of 1.44%. The fund supply is loose, the debt financing demand is strong, and the fund price generally rebounded slightly at a low level [34]. Term Structure - In September, the yield of the 10 - year national bond changed by 1.9bp, the yield of the 5 - year national bond changed by - 2.4bp, and the yield of the 2 - year national bond changed by 8.6bp. The yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond changed by 16.1bp, the yield of the 5 - year policy - bank bond changed by 3.2bp, and the yield of the 2 - year policy - bank bond changed by 4.7bp. Overall, the yield term structure flattened significantly in September. The credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened significantly at both the long and short ends, highlighting a strong expectation of broad credit [38]. Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - In September, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 7.0bp to 4.18%, the inflation expectation changed by - 5.0bp to 2.34%, and the real interest rate changed by - 2.00bp to 1.84%. The price of risk assets strengthened due to the improvement of financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 8.00bp to 58.00bp. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed by 8.92bp to - 232.30bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.1%. The US dollar against the RMB returned to a level slightly below the central range of the past three years and was supported [41]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals Real Estate Demand - As of October 2, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.4702 million square meters, a seasonal rebound from 1.906 million square meters in the previous week, returning to the neutral level of the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic, it decreased by 17.1%. Second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally, with a significant month - on - month decline, and were at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales have generally recovered, and attention should be paid to whether macro policies in October will further boost the real estate market [44]. Service Industry Activities - As of August 29, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities across the country remained at a high level, reaching 84.23 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% and a 51% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activities in the service industry remained at a high level, mainly driven by the peak of the tourism season. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded slightly from the previous week, at a relatively high neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activities in the service industry tend to grow naturally and steadily, with a slight strengthening in monthly changes [47]. Manufacturing Tracking - In September, the capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry rebounded comprehensively. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by 0.63%, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt changed by 10.8%, the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker enterprises changed by 21.23%, the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises changed by 1.77%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 1.44% from the previous week. On the one hand, the anti - involution policy led to an increase in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the domestic and external demand of the manufacturing industry continued to recover [51]. Freight and Passenger Flows - Freight and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The weekly marginal decline was observed in the fields of postal express delivery dominated by e - commerce and civil aviation flights dominated by tourism consumption. Highway transportation was relatively weak with limited growth, while railway transportation rebounded significantly, highlighting the re - balance of the manufacturing industry after the implementation of tariff policies, showing certain resilience [56]. Import and Export - In terms of exports, the tariff policies of the US against major countries have been finalized, and global trade has entered a re - balance stage. China's exports have continued to grow strongly. China and the US are expected to negotiate again at the end of October or early November to discuss whether to extend the tariff exemption period. After the counter - seasonal strength of exports in the third quarter, there may be pressure in the fourth quarter [59]. Overseas Situation - US inflation remained resilient in August, and high - frequency data in September showed that it may continue to be resilient. Although Fed officials mentioned preventive rate cuts, the financial market still maintains an optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with a total cut of about 50bp, at the points of October and December. The probability of a rate cut in October has increased to a high level of 92.5%, and the probability in December is also as high as 81.4%. The end - of - year interest rate after rate cuts is expected to be in the range of 3.5% - 3.75%. If the core inflation remains around 2.8%, the real interest rate is expected to drop to 1%, which will be beneficial to risk assets [66]. Other Analyses Valuation - The stock - bond risk premium was 2.56% last month, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous month, at the 43.9% quantile. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.42%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous month, at the 16.8% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.8%, 86.7%, 98.9%, and 84.4% quantiles of the past five years respectively, and their relative valuations were not low. The valuation quantiles changed by - 3.7%, 2.4%, 4.5%, and 1.9% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of each broad - based index continued to decline [68][70]. Quantitative Diagnosis - According to the seasonal law analysis, the stock market is in a stage of seasonal volatile rise and structural differentiation in October. The cyclical style is dominant, and the growth style generally fluctuates at a high level. Overall, the stock market has a good profit - making effect in October, and the style is easy to switch. Considering the high valuation of the growth style and the bullish macro - policy expectation in October, attention should be paid to the supplementary rise of the cyclical style and the opportunity of the growth style switching to AI applications. Buy IF and IH on sharp drops, and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for IC and IM [75].

从最新数据来看，前8个月，固定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下 降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下降；8月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下 降；8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.9%。 展望四季度，宏观政策将坚持"稳中求进"总基调，财政政策与货币政策协同发力，重点在于提升政策效 能与市场预期。 当前，中国经济正处于转型升级的关键期，短期波动不改长期向好基本面。四季度是全年经济收官的冲 刺阶段，更是政策发力的重要窗口期。《证券日报》记者采访了多位业内人士，深入剖析四季度宏观经 济走势，精准探寻政策发力点。 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平认为，为推动经济平稳增长，保障实现年初确定的预期目 标，四季度需尽快完善、下达"两重"建设和中央预算内投资项目清单，加快地方专项债、一般国债、超 长期特别国债等的发行与资金落地，尽快形成扩大内需的实际政策效果。 货币政策方面，伍超明预计或将保持连续性、稳定性，维持宽松基调和流动性充裕状况不变；但面对银 行息差压力、居民存款收益下降、政策效果不佳等制约，加之经济循环改善、物价回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue their strong performance due to supply tightening and loose macro - policies, with demand not significantly weakening [2][3]. - Aluminum prices are likely to move upward as macro - sentiment provides support, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is limited [4][5]. - Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile pattern after the holiday, with a higher inventory accumulation rate than in previous years [7][8]. - Zinc prices are expected to strengthen after the holiday, driven by a positive sector atmosphere and structural risks in LME zinc [10][11]. - Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with supply and demand in a tight - balance state [13][14]. - Nickel prices may decline in the short term due to inventory pressure but have limited downside space in the long run [15][16]. - The price of lithium carbonate is supported at the bottom by strong downstream demand after the holidays, while supply expectations suppress the upside [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed for now, as the over - capacity situation persists, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply pressure increases after the holiday and there is no substantial positive news [25][27]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under pressure above but supported by rising costs, with inventory continuing to accumulate [29][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - During the National Day holiday, LME copper prices rose, with the 3M contract at $10,701/ton, up 3.14% from before the holiday. LME copper inventory decreased by 0.4 to 139,000 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 0.9 to 303,000 tons. In August, Chile's copper production decreased by over 20,000 tons month - on - month and 9.9% year - on - year. In the third quarter, the output of Kamoa - Kakula Copper Mine in Congo (Kinshasa) decreased by about 40,000 tons quarter - on - quarter. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by about 50,000 tons month - on - month, and is expected to decline further in October [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - Supply tightening and loose macro - policies support copper prices, and demand is not a major resistance. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 84,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is $10,600 - 10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - During the National Day holiday, LME aluminum prices rose, with the 3M contract at $2,750/ton, up 3.22% from before the holiday. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.7 to 506,000 tons. In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year - on - year and decreased by 3.2% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slight decline in the operating rate [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Macro - sentiment supports aluminum prices, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is limited. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract is 20,900 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is $2,730 - 2,780/ton [5]. Lead Market Information - Before the holiday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.35% to 16,921 yuan/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. From September 30 to October 8, the LME lead 3M contract rose 0.8% to $2,007/ton, and the inventory increased slightly [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holiday, lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile pattern, with a higher inventory accumulation rate than in previous years [8]. Zinc Market Information - Before the holiday, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.01% to 21,814 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 141,400 tons. From September 30 to October 8, the LME zinc 3M contract rose 4.08% to $3,035.5/ton, and the inventory decreased to 38,200 tons, with a serious shortage of deliverable inventory [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holiday, zinc prices are expected to strengthen due to a positive sector atmosphere and structural risks in LME zinc [11]. Tin Market Information - During the National Day, LME tin prices were strong, reaching a maximum of $37,695/ton. As of October 7, it was $36,445/ton, up 2.95% from September 30. Supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. Demand from new - energy vehicles and AI servers is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances remain weak. In August, the tin solder开工率 of domestic sample enterprises rebounded to 73.22% [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $36,000 - 39,000/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - During the National Day, nickel prices oscillated. As of October 7, the LME nickel price was $15,485/ton, up 1.44% from September 30. The spot market had little trading activity during the holiday. Before the holiday, refined nickel downstream enterprises mainly purchased on - demand [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, nickel prices may decline due to inventory pressure but have limited downside space in the long run. It is recommended to observe in the short term and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the short - term SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On September 30, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.65%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.68%, and the industrial - grade decreased by 0.49%. The LC2511 contract closed at 72,800 yuan, down 1.52% [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holidays, strong downstream demand supports the bottom of lithium carbonate prices, while supply expectations suppress the upside. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 74,500 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On September 30, the alumina index fell 1.2% to 2,872 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,885 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $321/ton, and the import window opened [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to observe for now. Ore prices may be supported in the short term but face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end persists, and the opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - Before the holiday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,730 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets remained stable. The social inventory increased to 984,500 tons, with a 0.88% increase in 300 - series inventory [25][26]. Strategy Viewpoint - Stainless - steel prices may face downward pressure if supply pressure increases after the holiday and there is no substantial positive news [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - Before the National Day holiday, cast aluminum alloy futures prices were weak, and the cost of raw aluminum rose during the holiday. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts widened to 520 yuan/ton. The inventory of the exchange and main markets increased before the holiday [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - The downstream peak season of cast aluminum alloy is not strong, with inventory continuing to accumulate. The price is under pressure above but supported by rising costs [30].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3882.78, up by 0.52% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.35% to 13526.51, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.45% to 4640.69 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Non-ferrous Metals (3.22%), Defense and Military (2.59%), Real Estate (2.12%), Electric Equipment (1.71%), and Pharmaceutical Biology (1.40%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Communication (-1.83%), Non-bank Financials (-1.14%), Comprehensive (-1.06%), Environmental Protection (-0.78%), and Banking (-0.74%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were Metal Zinc (3.62%), Metal Lead (3.61%), Metal Cobalt (3.49%), Metal Copper (3.34%), and Metal Nickel (3.25%) [3] - The lagging concept indices included Trust Concept (-0.97%), China-South Korea Free Trade Zone (-0.91%), Biomass Power Generation (-0.70%), F5G Concept (-0.68%), and Automotive Thermal Management (-0.53%) [3] Economic Indicators - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September was reported at 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery [4] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was at 50.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points, while the Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic output [4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that despite the slight recovery in the manufacturing PMI, the economy still faces pressure, and there is a possibility of further macro policy support in the fourth quarter [5] - The report suggests that the A-share market has a foundation for medium to long-term upward movement, although major indices are at high levels, leading to potential short-term volatility due to profit-taking [5] - Recommended sectors for investment include Non-ferrous Metals, Transportation, Public Utilities, Banking, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness and market expectations during the critical fourth quarter of China's economic transition [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing investment and accelerating the issuance and utilization of land reserve and special infrastructure bonds, despite a low probability of adjusting budgets or issuing new government bonds [1]. - The need for timely enhancement of "two heavy" construction and central budget investment project lists is highlighted to support economic stability and achieve annual targets [2]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is anticipated to maintain continuity and stability, with a focus on a loose monetary stance and ample liquidity, although the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter is low [2]. - There may be a potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in interest rates by 0.2 percentage points if necessary, alongside the lowering of operational thresholds for capital market support tools [2]. Demand Side Recommendations - Suggestions include lowering mortgage rates, optimizing personal housing tax incentives, and encouraging banks to increase loans to real estate developers [3]. - An additional 1 billion yuan for consumer goods trade-in subsidies is proposed to expand the subsidy range and enhance credit support for service consumption [3]. - Strengthening fiscal and financial support, optimizing tax refund services, and improving trade facilitation are recommended to assist foreign trade and affected industries [3].

——产业转型升级不是"齐步走"。回应个别唱衰中国经济的声音，题为《科学客观看待我国当前经济发 展态势》的文章指出，总的看，中国经济形有分化、势在向好、未来可期。 官媒连发权威署名文章 传递中国经济政策信号 中新社北京10月8日电 中国官媒《人民日报》自9月30日起连续8天刊登署名"钟才文"的评论文章，传递 中国经济政策信号，回应外界关注议题。 ——中国经济长期发展具备"稳定锚"。"十四五"时期，中国国内生产总值连续突破100万亿元(人民币， 下同)大关后，先后跨越多个十万亿元关口，今年预计可达140万亿元。题为《深刻认识中国经济长期稳 定发展的内在逻辑》的文章指出，这么大的经济体量，能够保持长期稳定发展，其背后蕴藏着深刻的内 在逻辑。 文章举例说，中国共产党长期执政，能够避免西方多党制下的政策短视、朝令夕改等，为中国经济长期 发展提供重要"稳定锚"。中国注重完善宏观调控制度体系，加强逆周期调节，正确引导市场预期，提振 社会信心，既保证一定政策力度，又预留足够政策空间，及时熨平经济运行中可能出现的波动，保持经 济运行在合理区间。 ——中国发展绝非所谓"冲击"。谈及中国发展为世界提供了什么，题为《中国经济发展具有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is currently influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. The economic data shows that the pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" may continue, and the foundation for the recovery of effective demand is not yet solid. The economic growth in the third quarter is under pressure, which provides some support for the current bond market. However, in an environment lacking incremental positive news, the market is sensitive to negative news. The uncertainty of the new regulations on public bond funds continues to disrupt the market, and funds face significant redemption pressure. Bearish sentiment still dominates. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to be in a volatile and weak pattern in the short term. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and at the same time, pay attention to the long - end term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价为107.845，涨幅0.17%，成交量91682，增加6223；TF主力收盘价为105.630，涨幅0.11%，成交量62260，减少6371；TS主力收盘价为102.372，涨幅0.04%，成交量29604，增加2631；TL主力收盘价为113.900，涨幅0.1%，成交量135369，增加7966 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差为0.33，减少0.02；T2512 - 2603价差为0.31，减少0.02；TF2512 - 2603价差为0.11，减少0.02；TS2512 - 2603价差为0.09，增加0.00；T12 - TL12价差为 - 6.06，无变化；TF12 - T12价差为 - 2.22，减少0.04；TS12 - T12价差为 - 5.47，减少0.14；TS12 - TF12价差为 - 3.26，减少0.10 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量为221887，增加911；T前20名多头持仓量为211293，增加702；T前20名空头持仓量为210998，增加4693；T前20名净空仓为 - 295，减少3991；TF主力持仓量为131782，增加1521；TF前20名多头持仓量为122701，增加1684；TF前20名空头持仓量为132877，增加3549；TF前20名净空仓为10176，增加1865；TS主力持仓量为66797，减少1281；TS前20名多头持仓量为54560，减少1166；TS前20名空头持仓量为58212，减少305；TS前20名净空仓为3652，增加861；TL主力持仓量为145443，减少687；TL前20名多头持仓量为128270，减少377；TL前20名空头持仓量为141620，增加650；TL前20名净空仓为13350，增加1027 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220019.IB(6y）净价为105.3158，增加0.0147；250018.IB(6y)净价为99.0955，增加0.2108；2500801.IB(4y）净价为99.2763，增加0.0919；240020.IB(4y)净价为100.8844，增加0.1346；250012.IB(1.7y)净价为99.9309，增加0.0168；250017.IB(2y)净价为99.9036，增加0.0286；210014.IB(17y)净价为125.1262，减少0.5025；220008.IB(18y)净价为121.2945，增加0.6719 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率为1.3825%，无变化；3y收益率为1.5300%，减少0.75bp；5y收益率为1.6250%，增加1.00bp；7y收益率为1.7525%，增加1.00bp；10y收益率为1.8075%，增加0.85bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率为1.3699%，增加6.99bp；Shibor隔夜利率为1.3790%，增加6.40bp；银质押7天利率为1.4667%，减少43.33bp；Shibor7天利率为1.4050%，减少11.80bp；银质押14天利率为1.6576%，减少29.24bp；Shibor14天利率为1.7020%，增加17.50bp [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR利率为3.00%，无变化；5y LPR利率为3.5%，无变化 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模2422亿元，到期规模2761亿元，利率1.4%，期限7天，净投放 - 339亿元 [2] 3.9 Industry News - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease, remaining at the critical point, showing overall stability in the non - manufacturing business volume; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase, remaining above the critical point, indicating an accelerating overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [2] - In August, local government bonds worth 980.1 billion yuan were issued nationwide, including 305.6 billion yuan in general bonds and 674.5 billion yuan in special bonds. From January to August, the total issuance of local government bonds nationwide was 7,683.8 billion yuan, including 1,829.7 billion yuan in general bonds and 5,854.1 billion yuan in special bonds [2] - The scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan, all of which are used to supplement project capital. The National Development and Reform Commission is working with relevant parties to allocate the funds to specific projects. According to Wang Qing, the chief macro - analyst at Orient Jincheng, these 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [2] 3.10 Key Data to Watch - On October 1st at 20:15, the US ADP employment figure for September (in ten thousand people) - On October 3rd at 20:30, the US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for September (in ten thousand people) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On September 29, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell, and commodities showed mixed performances with coking coal and coke leading the declines [9][12] - The NDRC will strengthen the implementation of macro - economic policies in a timely manner as the current economic operation still faces challenges [40][41] Summaries by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 29, equity indices rose (IM up 2.0%), CGB futures fell (TL down 0.5%), and commodities had mixed results. Top gainers in commodities were silver (up 3.9% with 6.5% m - o - m open interest drop), gold (up 1.3% with 0.4% m - o - m open interest drop), and apple (up 1.2% with 4.5% m - o - m open interest drop). Top decliners were coking coal (down 5.0% with 9.5% m - o - m open interest drop), silicon metal (down 4.3% with 14.2% m - o - m open interest drop), and coke (down 4.2% with 3.5% m - o - m open interest drop) [9][10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold & Silver**: On September 29, gold rose 1.3% to 866.52 yuan/gram, and silver rose 3.9% to 10939 yuan/kg. During the National Day holiday, U.S. non - farm payroll and PMI data release and the risk of data delay due to a U.S. government shutdown should be noted. Gold's bullish trend persists, and in Q4, Fed rate - cut expectations and independence risks will drive the upward trend. In H1 2026, a shift to "recovery trade" may pose correction risks. Long - term, gold is a preferred asset for hedging U.S. dollar credit risks. Silver has greater short - term upside flexibility and may challenge its 2011 historical high [16][17][19] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coke**: On September 29, coke fell 4.2% to 1647 yuan/ton. Mainstream coke enterprises have raised prices due to profit pressure, but steel mills haven't responded. Short - term price fluctuations are expected. Supply decreased due to poor profits, demand was supported by rising molten iron output, and inventories showed steel mills increasing stocks and coke enterprises slightly reducing stocks [24][26][28] - **Coking Coal**: On September 29, coking coal fell 5.0% to 1154 yuan/ton. Supply recovery is slow, and short - term mid - and downstream stockpiling demand can be sustained. Short - term price fluctuations are expected. Some coal mines in Shanxi resumed production, and imports decreased. Coke output declined slightly, but mid - and downstream purchasing was active [30][32][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The NDRC stated that in August, China's economy was generally stable. However, it still faces challenges, and the NDRC will strengthen macro - economic policies in a timely manner [40][41] - China will add a visa category for young sci - tech talents to promote exchanges [40][41] - Premier Li Qiang met with DPRK Foreign Minister Choe Son hui, and both sides are willing to implement the consensus of the top leaders [40] - From January to August, SOEs' total operating revenue increased 0.2% YoY, while total profits decreased 2.7% YoY [41]

Group 1: Macro Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macro policy is expected to be intensified and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [2] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for two months, while the procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, suggesting improved production activities [6] - The new orders index for manufacturing increased to 49.7%, indicating a stabilization in market demand, while the new export orders index rose to 47.8%, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [6][8] Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, and the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [7] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly in sectors like food processing, automotive, and aerospace [8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction sector showing slight improvement, while the service sector experienced a minor decline [11][12]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].