钢材周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 政策积极有为 期价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 宏观面：中共中央政治局召开会议，会议强调，要加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加力实施城市更 新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构 建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存 量商品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 持续稳定和活跃资本市场。 ⚫ 基本面： ...

22002255年年44月月2211日日--22002255年年44月月2255日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周中美关税战有缓和迹象推动风险偏好回升，A股延续反弹，黄金冲高回落，债市平稳运 行，全球股市普遍上涨。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 本周市场延续反弹，上半周上涨，下半周在指数点位接近修复4月7日跳空缺口时，市场有所 犹豫、走势震荡。基本面方面，A股上市公司一季报披露进入高峰期，对市场整体未形成显 著影响。流动性方面，沪深两市日均成交额近1.12万亿元，相比上周有明显提升。成交金额 的放大代表了流动性的恢复，对流动性反应敏感的小盘表现好于大盘，本周表现从高到低依 次为国证2000、中证1000、中证500、沪深300。从行业表现看，汽车、美容护理、基础 护工表现较好。今日中共中央政治局会议提出了系列宏观政策，要加紧实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策、适时降准降息等。 02 AA股股延延续续反反弹弹，，黄黄金金冲冲高高回回落落 债市方面，本周资金面均衡偏松，债券市场整体震荡为主。本周市场影响因素包括消息面、 债券供给和资金面。消息面较多，小作文传政治局会议地产政策以及美国表态降低对华关税 等， ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize the economy amid increasing external shocks, highlighting the importance of proactive fiscal and monetary measures to support growth and employment [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - In Q1, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of the previous year and positioning it among the leading global economies [2]. - The meeting acknowledged the need to solidify the foundation for ongoing economic recovery due to heightened external pressures [2]. Policy Tools - The meeting called for the enhancement of the policy toolbox to include both flexibility and unconventional features, aiming to respond effectively to economic fluctuations [2]. - It was noted that the policies should be timely and responsive to changes in the economic landscape, with a focus on stabilizing employment and economic growth [2][3]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated the commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through structural monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and the establishment of new financial instruments [4][5]. - Recent data indicated a significant increase in social financing, with March's increment reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, reflecting robust monetary support for economic recovery [4]. Fiscal Policy - The meeting emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a total issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan announced [6]. - The focus will be on expediting fiscal spending and optimizing expenditure structures to ensure the stability of basic public services [6][7]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that fiscal policies may include measures such as increasing the issuance of government bonds and expanding consumer subsidies to stimulate new consumption growth areas [7]. - The meeting highlighted the urgency of addressing local government debts owed to enterprises, indicating a potential allocation of funds to resolve these issues [7].

近日，2025年超长期特别国债发行"开闸"，两期共计1210亿元债券顺利发行。与此同时，中央金融 机构注资特别国债也启动发行。中央政治局会议强调，"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用 足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使 用"。宏观政策加速落地显效，推动我国经济稳中有进、持续向好，更有效应对外部变化的不确定性。 从2024年起连续几年发行超长期特别国债，是党中央作出的一项重大决策部署。2024年我国发行1 万亿元超长期特别国债，其中，7000亿元用于支持国家重大战略和重点领域安全能力建设；3000亿元用 于支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，特别是加大汽车报废更新、家电产品以旧换新补贴力度，拉 动消费效应明显。1万亿元超长期特别国债的发行使用，有力支持了"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 今年我国财政政策进一步加力，明确要"更加积极"，超长期特别国债也更加给力。一方面，资金规 模更大。按照预算安排，今年我国拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，比上年增加3000亿元，其中， 8000亿元用于更大力度支持"两重"项目，5000亿元用于加力扩围实施"两新"政策。另一方 ...

从理财市场一季报来看，2 0 2 5Q1末理财规模较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元，同比多减0 . 6 4万亿元。资产配置方面，一季度理财产品增 配同业资产，减配存款和同业存单。展望来看，随着二季度债市修复和银行负债压力减弱，理财规模有望重回景气扩张。从银 行板块投资看，在宏观"审慎"和"走弱"的两种假设情形下，银行板块相对于大部分行业而言，基本面具备相对稳健特征，相对 价值显著。 ▍ 事项： 本周银行业理财登记托管中心发布《中国银行业理财市场季度报告（2 0 2 5年一季度）》；中共中央政治局4月2 5日召开会议， 分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 ▍ 市场规模：2 0 2 5Q1末理财规模较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元。 1）2 0 2 5Q1年末理财存续规模2 9 . 1 4万亿元，同比增长9 . 4 1%，较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元，同比多减0 . 6 4万亿元。 2 0 2 5年一季 度，理财市场整体景气度处于低位，当季债市波动较大影响理财收益率，根据我们的样本测算，2 0 2 5Q1纯债型和非纯债型固 收类理财产品平均年化收益率分别为1 . 5 6%/ 1 . 3 7%（2 0 2 4Q1分别为 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the use of fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] - The meeting highlights the acceleration of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds issuance [1] - There is a focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through potential interest rate cuts and the creation of new structural monetary policy tools [1] Group 2: International Cooperation and Trade - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announces a commitment to more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve annual growth targets and contribute to global economic stability [2] - China continues to offer zero-tariff treatment to products from the least developed countries and aims to further open its market for mutual benefits [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Trade Zones - The State Council approves the establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones in Hainan and 14 other cities [3] - The specific implementation plans for these pilot zones will be managed by the respective provincial governments [3] Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission releases new regulations on the temporary suspension and exemption of information disclosure for listed companies, effective from July 1, 2025 [4] - The new rules clarify the scope of exemptions and reinforce the responsibilities of companies regarding disclosure management [4] Group 5: Stock Market Regulations - The Shanghai Stock Exchange publishes revised stock listing rules, enhancing the responsibilities of audit committees and protecting minority shareholders' rights [5] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange also issues updated listing rules, focusing on similar regulatory enhancements [5] Group 6: Taxation and Consumer Spending - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments announce measures to optimize the departure tax refund process to boost inbound consumption [6][7] - The initiative includes promoting "buy and refund" services nationwide and establishing centralized refund points in high-traffic areas [6][7] Group 7: Financial Regulation - The China Securities Association introduces self-regulatory measures to prevent securities firms from manipulating profits through valuation adjustments [8] - The guidelines ensure prudent valuation practices for financial instruments held by securities firms [8] Group 8: Automotive Industry Reforms - The Ministry of Commerce reports that pilot reforms in automotive circulation consumption are progressing rapidly, with high enthusiasm for local pilot applications [9] - The reforms aim to eliminate restrictive measures on car purchases and promote innovation in the automotive aftermarket [9] Group 9: Insurance Regulation - The Financial Regulatory Administration allows insurance companies to adjust the minimum guaranteed interest rates for universal life insurance products under certain conditions [10] - The regulation aims to mitigate risks during periods of declining interest rates and encourages the development of long-term universal insurance products [10] Group 10: Cultural and Tourism Promotion - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism emphasizes that departure tax refunds for shopping can enhance the export of high-quality domestic products and promote cultural exchange [11] - The initiative aims to attract inbound tourists and expand the scale of inbound tourism [11]

【 机构观点综评 】招商证券称，政策平稳发力，债市环境友好。摩根基金认为，A股市场中有许 多具有全球竞争力的企业仍被严重低估，从长期来看，它们具有非常大的投资机会。 一、焦点锐评 1.政治局：要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，以高质量 发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别 国债等发行使用。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕。要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既 定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固 经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 【点评】广发证券表述，本次政治局会议有三大特点，一是主线明确，"以高质量发展的确定性 应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"，做好"底线"和"预案"。二是政策具备广谱性，有带动固定资 产投资的政策，也有带动消费的政策；有带动传统部门的政策，也有带动新兴部门的政策。三是 政策整体集中于见效较快的领域。国泰基金认为，从会议来看，未来政策有望继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the prices of ferromanganese - silicon (MnSi) futures declined steadily, with the main contract shifting from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand situation of MnSi was relatively balanced, but the market still had accumulated surpluses. Macro risks in April led to a general decline in industrial products, exerting negative pressure on MnSi [3][6][57]. - In April 2025, the price of ferrosilicon (FeSi) fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. The price of FeSi was affected by electricity prices, which were closely related to coal prices. In April, coal prices were weak, and electricity prices in some areas declined [4][11][59]. - Looking ahead to May, the surplus of MnSi may be marginally alleviated, but the surplus pattern still exists. There is still the negative impact of Australian manganese ore shipments to be realized in May, so MnSi may remain weak. However, if the low price persists, the shortage of manganese ore will intensify again. There is a high probability that MnSi will experience a manganese - ore - driven upward trend in the third and fourth quarters. FeSi is still affected by coal prices. In May, it is still the off - season for thermal coal, and the decline of raw materials is expected to remain unchanged. After the production cut in April, the supply - demand situation of FeSi will improve. In May, it will mainly fluctuate, waiting for the peak season of coal - fired power in summer to provide obvious support [4][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **MnSi**: In April 2025, MnSi futures prices declined steadily, with the main contract shifting from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand was balanced, production declined significantly in April after rising in March, and the daily average production was at a low level. The inventory still increased, and the market had accumulated surpluses. Manganese ore inventory fluctuated at a low level, with a slight shortage. The Australian ore of South32 is expected to resume shipments in the second quarter. The absolute price of MnSi was low, and there was no obvious fundamental driver. Macro risks in April led to a general decline in industrial products, negatively affecting MnSi. The steel tender price in April was delayed and fell below 6,000 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated at a high level in April [3][6][7]. - **FeSi**: In April 2025, FeSi prices fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. FeSi prices were affected by electricity prices, which were related to coal prices. In April, coal prices were weak, and electricity prices in some areas declined. The prices of iconic steel mills for FeSi decreased month - by - month, and the basis increased as the price of FeSi fell [4][11][14]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on MnSi and FeSi - In December 2024, the Lanzhou Industry and Information Technology Bureau carried out energy - saving supervision on the ferroalloy industry. In February 2025, the long - term contract shipments from Gabon decreased from 300,000 tons to 120,000 tons. Due to the impact of tropical cyclone Zelia, the mining in some areas of Oceania was suspended, affecting the production and shipment of manganese ore. Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products. The Chinese government will implement a new round of rural road improvement actions and adopt more active macro - policies [17][18][20]. MnSi Supply - In 2024, the MnSi industry cut production. From January to March 2025, the production was similar to that at the beginning of 2024, and it is expected to decline in April. In March 2025, the national comprehensive starting rate of MnSi production enterprises was 49.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.21%. The production in March was 899,115 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. The production profit of MnSi was poor at the beginning of 2025, and then turned negative again. The industry had serious over - capacity, especially in the north. In April, the import profit of manganese ore was generally poor, and the spot price of manganese ore declined. As of February 2025, South32's Australian ore had not shipped, and the Australian ore of United Mining was also affected by the hurricane and could not be shipped in the second quarter. In March 2025, China's total manganese ore imports were 1.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.60%. The manganese ore inventory was at a low level in the past five years, and there was a slight increase in April compared with March. Although the current inventory was low, there would be no hard shortage in the market [21][25][31]. MnSi Demand - The demand for MnSi mainly comes from the steel - making industry, especially for rebar. In 2024, the demand declined significantly, and there were signs of stabilization at the beginning of 2025, with a year - on - year increase in March. In March 2025, China's rebar production was 1.8611 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Due to the high cost of small and medium - sized manganese mines and the profit - protection measures of large mines, MnSi is not expected to maintain a long - term low price. In the short - to - medium - term, MnSi may be weak in May, but in the long - term, there is a possibility of a strong independent market in the fourth quarter [40][41]. FeSi Production Profit - From January to April 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of FeSi decreased. Before March, the profit of FeSi improved, and production increased. However, after April, FeSi prices continued to decline significantly, and the profit of using grid electricity to produce FeSi turned negative, so the production of FeSi decreased month - on - month in April [43]. FeSi Production - In March 2025, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate of FeSi production enterprises was 60.57%, a month - on - month increase of 6.61%. The production in March was 502,740 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. However, the latest FeSi production has decreased significantly. It is estimated that the production in April will be about 440,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase. The decline in FeSi prices is highly correlated with the decline in coal prices [46]. FeSi Demand - In 2025, the export of FeSi decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month in March. In March 2025, China's FeSi export volume was 31,523.207 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.46% but a year - on - year decrease of 15.45%. The main export regions are Asia. If the domestic coal prices continue to decline, the export of FeSi is expected to increase. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for FeSi, increased slightly at a low level in 2025. In March, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 0.5% month - on - month. In 2025, the steel production showed signs of recovery at the beginning of the year, but there were frequent news of production restrictions. From the current supply - demand situation, the FeSi market has limited room for large fluctuations [48][51][55]. Summary and Outlook - In April 2025, the price of MnSi futures declined steadily, and the main contract shifted from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand of MnSi was balanced, but there were still surpluses. Macro factors had a negative impact. In April, the price of FeSi fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. In May, MnSi may remain weak, but there is a high probability of a manganese - ore - driven upward trend in the third and fourth quarters. FeSi will mainly fluctuate in May, waiting for the support from the peak season of coal - fired power in summer [57][59].

Macro Economic Overview - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: stocks > bonds > commodities > currency [3][5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and appropriate monetary policies, including timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to ensure liquidity [3][18] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index increased by 0.38% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 0.62% [2][12] - Futures for coking coal and iron ore saw increases of 1.96% and 1.06% respectively [12][36] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao rose by 1 basis point to 1.33%, while the yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.66% [12][41] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [5][13] - Bonds are recommended for standard allocation, with a note that the "stock-bond seesaw" may impact the bond market in the short term [5][13] - Commodities and currency are suggested for underweight positions, with expected yields fluctuating around 2% [5][13] Economic Data Insights - The April LPR remained unchanged at 3.1% for the one-year term and 3.6% for the five-year term, marking six consecutive months of stability [23] - The report highlights a rebound in steel production rates, with rebar and wire rod rates increasing by 0.35 and 1.77 percentage points respectively [25][28] Market Trends - The automotive sector showed a year-on-year increase in wholesale and retail sales of 9% and 17% respectively, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [33][34] - The real estate market experienced a slight decline in transaction volumes, with a total of 148.98 million square meters sold in the week ending April 20 [33][36]

Domestic Policy Insights - The 1-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, maintaining stability for six consecutive months[2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion CNY, indicating increased liquidity support[2] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures[4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.74% to close at 21,980.74 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.96%[8] - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 231.26 billion HKD, up by 18.48 billion HKD from the previous week[13] - The PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 9.86 and 1.04, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.7% and 2.2%[19] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector saw the highest increase at 8.37%, followed by information technology at 5.98%[11] - Consumer staples and telecommunications sectors declined by 0.29% and 2.73%, respectively[11] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was 5.85%, positioned at the 23rd percentile since 2010[25] Investment Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as consumer and technology sectors[41] - Industries with lower trade dependency and higher dividend yields, including finance, energy, and utilities, are recommended for investment[41] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is considered attractive for medium to long-term investments[41] Risk Factors - Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of domestic policies poses a risk to market stability[43] - Potential disruptions from tariff policies and fluctuating market sentiments are highlighted as significant risks[43]