Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrated strong vitality and resilience in the first half of the year, achieving a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, with macro policies expected to continue to support growth in the second half [2][3] Economic Growth and Policy Measures - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [2][3] - Analysts suggest potential new measures such as interest rate cuts, increasing fiscal deficit ratios, and enhancing special bond issuance to boost domestic demand and counter external demand slowdown [2][3][4] Internal Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing internal demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption, including support for service consumption and improving consumer environments [10][11] - The government plans to issue 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption initiatives, with a focus on promoting new consumption models and enhancing consumer experiences [10][11] Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting called for expanding high-level opening up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, with specific support for foreign trade enterprises facing challenges [12][13] - Data showed that China's goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with exports growing by 7.2% [13] Risk Management and Debt - The meeting stressed the need to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, particularly regarding local government debt, while promoting urban renewal and infrastructure safety [6][7] - Emphasis was placed on balancing risk prevention with development, with a focus on eliminating hidden debts and ensuring the stability of financing platforms [7][8] Capital Market Development - The meeting aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, with reforms to attract international capital and more investors [8] - Key initiatives include promoting financial openness and deepening investment reforms to support long-term capital inflow [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report provides a forecast of the trend of various futures contracts on July 31, 2025, including the expected trend, support, and resistance levels of each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Alerts - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [8]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, and Chairman Powell said it was too early to determine a rate cut in September [10]. - The US announced tariffs on imported semi - finished copper products, Brazilian products, and Indian goods, which affected the copper market [10][11]. - The eurozone's Q2 GDP growth slowed, and Canada's central bank kept interest rates unchanged [12]. - The General Administration of Customs adjusted trading limits for certain industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts [12]. 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 2.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 30, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 had different intraday performances. It is expected that on July 31, stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 4173 and 4200 points and support at 4130 and 4100 points [15][19]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 30, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures T2509 and TL2509 both rose. It is expected that on July 31, they will fluctuate strongly. T2509 will attack resistance at 108.40 and 108.46 yuan, with support at 108.18 and 108.01 yuan; TL2509 will attack resistance at 118.7 and 118.9 yuan, with support at 117.9 and 117.6 yuan [36][40]. 2.3 Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures AU2510 rose slightly on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 765.2 and 760.6 yuan/gram and resistance at 772.7 and 773.8 yuan/gram. Silver futures AG2510 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 9008 and 8943 yuan/kg and resistance at 9152 and 9166 yuan/kg [46][54]. 2.4 Base Metal Futures - Copper futures CU2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 78500 and 78000 yuan/ton and resistance at 78900 and 79200 yuan/ton. Alumina futures AO2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 3307 and 3287 yuan/ton and resistance at 3326 and 3349 yuan/ton [59][63]. 2.5 Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures SC2509 rose on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 31, attacking resistance at 539 and 547 yuan/barrel, with support at 529 and 525 yuan/barrel. PTA futures TA509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 4820 and 4800 yuan/ton and resistance at 4880 and 4910 yuan/ton [95][99]. 2.6 Agricultural Futures - Bean meal futures M2509 rose on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 2978 and 2960 yuan/ton and resistance at 3022 and 3038 yuan/ton [104].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese economy's performance in the first half of the year, achieving a GDP growth of 5.3%, and outlines the macroeconomic policies for the second half aimed at sustaining growth and addressing challenges [1][4]. Economic Growth and Policy Measures - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for continuous and timely macroeconomic policy adjustments, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that new significant measures may be introduced to stabilize growth, such as interest rate cuts, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, and enhancing special bond issuance [2][6]. Internal Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing internal demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption, particularly in services, which saw a 5.3% year-on-year growth in retail sales [12][13]. - The government plans to support consumption through special bonds and policies aimed at enhancing consumer environments and promoting new consumption models [12][13]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting called for maintaining a stable foreign trade and foreign investment environment, with measures to support export enterprises facing challenges due to external pressures [14][16]. - The article notes that China's goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with exports growing by 7.2% [17]. Risk Management and Debt - The meeting stressed the need to actively and prudently manage local government debt risks, prohibiting new hidden debts while promoting the development needed to mitigate these risks [9][10]. - The focus on high-quality urban renewal aims to prevent excessive supply and further debt risks in the real estate sector [8][9]. Capital Market Development - The meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, which is crucial for maintaining economic confidence and supporting new productive forces [10]. - Key reforms will focus on financial openness, investment reforms, and increasing long-term capital market participation [10].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining stability and continuity in economic policies, with a focus on achieving high-quality development and addressing risks effectively [2][3] - The overall tone of the meeting was more positive compared to previous assessments, with a commitment to achieving the annual economic growth target despite external uncertainties [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness [4][6] - There is potential for further interest rate cuts, as the emphasis on reducing comprehensive financing costs suggests room for monetary easing [4][5] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the need to effectively unleash domestic demand, focusing on both goods and service consumption, and implementing special actions to boost consumption [7][8] - The importance of expanding effective investment and stimulating private investment was also underscored, with specific measures to support consumer spending [7][8] Group 4: Market Competition - The meeting stressed the need to promote a unified national market and optimize market competition, addressing issues of disorderly competition among enterprises [9][10] - Policies aimed at regulating competition and eliminating unfair practices were reiterated, with a focus on enhancing the overall business environment [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in value and trading activity, reflecting a positive sentiment in the bond market amid ongoing macroeconomic policy adjustments by the government [3][4]. Market Performance - As of July 31, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.45%, with a latest price of 111.18 yuan, and has accumulated a 9.42% increase over the past year [3]. - The ETF has a trading volume of 26.49 billion yuan, indicating active market participation, with an average daily trading volume of 43.08 billion yuan over the past week [3]. Policy Insights - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on effective implementation and maximizing policy effects [3]. - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while maintaining a neutral stance on interest rate cuts [4]. Fund Metrics - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has reached a new high in size at 14.988 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 1.35 million [4]. - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.51 billion yuan, totaling 6.061 billion yuan in average daily net inflows [4]. Historical Performance - Over the past year, the ETF has achieved a net value increase of 9.47%, ranking 7th out of 414 index bond funds, placing it in the top 1.69% [5]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, slightly down but still above the critical point; medium enterprises have a PMI of 49.5%, up by 0.9 percentage points but below the critical point; small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, down by 0.9 percentage points and below the critical point [1] - The production index is at 50.5%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates expansion; the new orders index is at 40.4%, down by 0.8 percentage points, showing a slowdown in market demand [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points but still above the critical point; the construction index is at 50.6%, down by 2.2 percentage points, while the service index is at 50.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The CD index is at 45.7%, down by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing market demand [2] - The comprehensive PMI output is at 50.2%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates overall expansion in business activities [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to address internal and external shocks [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive measures to stimulate domestic demand, with final consumption contributing 52% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [4] - The meeting also pointed out the importance of deepening reforms and fostering technological innovation to develop new competitive industries [5] Group 4: Capital Market - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies to attract investments [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown positive momentum, surpassing key levels of 3500 and 3600 points since April [6] - There is an expectation for a long-term bullish trend in the capital market, driven by increased investment from institutional investors and the inclusion of innovative companies in the market [6]

Group 1 - The national disciplinary inspection and supervision system received over 16,800 cases related to disciplinary inspection and supervision personnel in the first half of the year [1] - A total of 14,000 cases involving disciplinary inspection and supervision personnel were processed, with 4,872 individuals receiving inquiries and discussions [1] - 2,042 cases were filed against disciplinary inspection and supervision personnel, resulting in 1,666 disciplinary actions and 101 referrals to judicial authorities [1] Group 2 - Disciplinary actions included 49 at the department and bureau level and 319 at the county and division level [1] - The "four forms of accountability" were applied to criticize and handle 6,006 disciplinary inspection and supervision personnel [1] - The first form of accountability was used for 4,242 individuals, the second for 1,439, the third for 199, and the fourth for 126 [1]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum shows a slight fluctuation, the price of alumina weakens, and the price of cast aluminum alloy follows that of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend strength of aluminum is neutral (0), alumina is weakly bearish (-1), and aluminum alloy is neutral (0) [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,625, down 165 from T - 5; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,608, down 31 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts have different degrees of changes. The LME cancelled warrant ratio is 3.10%, down 0.08% from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 3,326, down 29 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have significant changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,070, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased to some extent [1]. b) Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 514,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1 and up 34,000 tons from T - 5. The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 3,920.26, with a slight increase compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 3,271, up 26 from T - 5. The prices of imported alumina from different regions also show certain changes [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of aluminum bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea have different degrees of changes, and the price of Yangquan aluminum bauxite has also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -291, and the prices of related products and inventory have also changed [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,610, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. c) Comprehensive News - The Chinese government will implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, and prevent and resolve risks in key areas [3]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slow economic growth, and Powell has not given guidance on a September rate cut [3].

2025年07月31日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.336 | 102.384 | 105.630 | 105.675 | 108.300 | 108.210 | 118.36 | 117.96 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.302 | 102.364 | 105.545 | 105.610 | 108.130 | 108.115 | 117.87 | 117.49 | | | 涨跌 | 0.034 | 0.020 | 0.085 | 0.065 | 0.170 | 0.095 | 0.490 | 0.4 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观政策预期落空 矿价短期区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 重要声明： 近期黑色系市场主要交易"反内卷"破除低价的宏大叙事逻辑，成材价格与原材料价格共 振大幅上行，但短期宏观政策增量减弱以及产业政策预期降低，叠加美联储降息预期弱化，预 计黑色系将进入调整。 供应方面：短期供给端支撑边际减弱，外矿发运将逐步进入季节性回升周期，其中澳洲 BHP、 FMG 矿山检修期结束后发运回升，巴西发运保持相对中位偏高水平；短期到港量保持高位持续 回落，即现实端供给压力偏弱，但当前价格回升至 100 美金/吨，若价格持续高位或刺激非主流 矿中期供应增加。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面：国内日均铁水量小幅下降，本期日 ...