2025 年 05 月 06 日 年报季顺利收官，五一白酒需求符合预期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：张倩 S1050124070037 zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | -1.5 | 8.1 | -9.2 | | 沪深 300 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩密集 披露期，整体反馈符合预期》2025- 04-28 2、《食品饮料行业周报：社零数据 超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻》2025- 04-21 3、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）河南盛林年销售 ...

五一白酒动销跟踪 20250505 摘要 • 茅台通过调整产品结构和加强渠道管理来平衡收入与市场价格，飞天茅台 保持稳定，公鸡茅台增加配额外供应，并放宽经销商报备限制，开发新场 景和客户，同时适当增加经销商库存，加快商务节奏。 • 2025 年茅台经销渠道进度加快，1-4 月已完成飞天总量约 50%，合同计 划达 48%，公司通过调整发货节奏有效应对市场需求和压力，保持价格稳 定，并积极转型，发展新客户群体，应对行业整体偏弱的态势。 • 白酒行业整体趋势下降，但茅台表现亮眼，飞天系列库存保持合理水平， 通过性价比引导需求释放，调整营销渠道和策略，实现相对稳定发展，高 端白酒品牌也展现一定韧性，但总体面临压力。 • 五粮液一批价稳定在 915-920 元，但市场需求不足导致动销缓慢，库存压 力较大，公司承诺不让经销商赔钱，但实际情况不乐观，市场信任度降低， 烟酒店对涨价持悲观态度，影响动销。 • 国窖 1,573 高度酒一批价 860 元，低度酒 610 元，山东市场以低度酒为 主，动销较好，通过与烟酒店签订包量协议，加强管控，但经销商仍面临 赔钱风险，库存压力较高。 Q&A 茅台在 2025 年的价格走势如何 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 白酒Ⅱ 业绩符合预期，目标务实积极 ——今世缘 2024&25Q1 业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 苏中引领省内增长，省外保持较快增速 24 年省内/外收入增速为 13.32%/27.37%，省外收入占比上升 1.73pct。淮安/南京/ 苏南/苏中/盐城/淮海/省外收入占比分别同比变动 +2.13/+2.40/+1.07/+2.93/+1.50/+0.77/+1.73pct，其中省外收入增长达 27.37%、苏 中大区收入增长达 21%。 25Q1 省内/外收入增速为 8.45%/19.04%，省外收入占比提升 1.38pct，其中苏中大 区收入增长达 15.20%，省外保持较快增长。 24 年省内/外经销商数量变动+114/+53 个，24 年省内/外平均经销商规模同比- 7.75%/+16.39%；25Q1 省内/外经销商数量变动+23/+16 个，25Q1 省内/外平均经 销商规模同比-12.52%/-4.54%。 ❑ 净利率略有回落，现金流表现较优 1）盈利能力：24 年毛利率/净利率同比-3.60/-1.50pct 至 74.74%/29.55%；25Q1 毛 利率/净利率 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 伊力特（600197） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：伊力王改革 显效，小老窖有待修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,231 | 2,203 | 2,311 | 2,588 | 2,944 | | 同比（%） | 37.46 | (1.27) | 4.92 | 11.99 | 13.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 339.85 | 285.80 | 332.88 | 396.85 | 496.72 | | 同比（%） | 105.53 | (15.91) | 16.47 | 19.22 | 25.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.84 | 1.05 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.26 | 24.09 | 20.68 | 17.35 | 13.86 | [Table_T ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 伊力特（600197） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：伊力王改革 显效，小老窖有待修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,231 | 2,203 | 2,311 | 2,588 | 2,944 | | 同比（%） | 37.46 | (1.27) | 4.92 | 11.99 | 13.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 339.85 | 285.80 | 332.88 | 396.85 | 496.72 | | 同比（%） | 105.53 | (15.91) | 16.47 | 19.22 | 25.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.84 | 1.05 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.26 | 24.09 | 20.68 | 17.35 | 13.86 | [Table_T ...

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing intensified structural differentiation and competition, with a focus on self-transformation and finding new opportunities amidst deep adjustments [1] - In 2024, the production volume of white liquor from 989 large-scale enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue is expected to reach 796.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - The industry is characterized by strong concentration, with leading brands and regions playing a crucial role in market dynamics [1] Industry Overview - The white liquor market is undergoing a reshuffle, with a clear trend of strong concentration and differentiation, leading to fierce competition among top brands [1][15] - Major brands are innovating their marketing strategies and product offerings to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [15][23] Market Dynamics - In key markets like Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong, leading brands dominate the sales landscape, with significant market shares held by top players such as Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - The competitive landscape varies by region, with local brands often struggling against national brands in markets like Henan and Guangdong [4][8][9] Brand Strategies - Wuliangye is focusing on expanding its market presence through innovative product launches and targeted marketing strategies aimed at various consumption scenarios [16] - Moutai is enhancing its brand image through cultural marketing and customer engagement initiatives, aiming to adapt to the evolving consumer landscape [17] - Luzhou Laojiao is implementing a dual-brand strategy to enhance market penetration and consumer experience [18] - Shanxi Fenjiu is emphasizing quality and cultural heritage in its marketing approach to strengthen brand loyalty [19][20] - Yanghe is leveraging cultural events and sponsorships to enhance brand visibility and market share [21] Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to continue evolving, with leading companies focusing on innovation, market expansion, and adapting to consumer preferences [23] - The emphasis on quality, cultural relevance, and consumer engagement will be critical for brands to maintain competitiveness in a rapidly changing market [23]

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） A股食品饮料赛道自从2021年2月见顶以来，已足足调整4年之久，整体跌幅超过40%，让众多价值投资者备感煎熬。 不可否认的是，该赛道这些年也依旧跑出了一些牛股，比如东鹏饮料、盐津铺子、万辰集团等。但毕竟占比少之又少，其核心大本营的白酒板 块沦为无人问津的状态，与 2021年之前的亢奋追捧形成鲜明对比。 如今，国家稳经济、促消费强力刺激政策不断推出，很多细分消费赛道依然开启大涨行情，沉沦已久的白酒赛道，能否也能迎来熬出头的机会 呢？ 01 白酒之所以连续下跌，并不是情绪主导，而是与基本面持续下行密切相关。 2022-2024年，A股上市白酒企业归母净利润增速逐步下降，分别为20.3%、18.9%、7.4%。 要知道， 2004年以来，这19年当中仅有2013、2014年因三公消费出现双位数负增长外，其余年份白酒板块净利润均保持了双位数强劲增 长。2024年仅录得7.4%，打破了白酒多年持续高增的神话。 如果将 2024年拆成季度表现来看，Q1-Q4归母净利润增速分别为15.8%、11.8%、2%、-3.4%。四季度出现罕见负增长， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly Baijiu, is accelerating its international expansion as domestic market conditions become challenging, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye actively seeking growth opportunities abroad [1][2]. Industry Overview - In 2024, the production of Baijiu in China saw a decline of 1.8%, with major listed companies reporting weak performance [1]. - The total export value of Chinese Baijiu reached $970 million in 2024, marking a 20.4% increase, while the export volume was 16,400 liters, up 6.3% [3]. - Kweichow Moutai alone accounted for over 70% of the Baijiu export market, with overseas revenue reaching approximately $7.02 billion, a 19.27% increase year-on-year [3]. Company Strategies - Kweichow Moutai aims to become an international company by 2035, while Wuliangye has prioritized international markets as a key goal for the year [1]. - The company has been enhancing its product structure and optimizing its export strategy to improve sales quality in international markets [3][4]. Market Challenges - Despite the growth in exports, Baijiu's international presence remains limited, with exports only accounting for 2.4% of the global spirits trade [5]. - Cultural differences, competition from established international brands, and tariff barriers pose significant challenges for Baijiu's global expansion [6]. Long-term Vision - Kweichow Moutai has outlined a long-term strategy focusing on quality, cultural promotion, and sustainable practices to enhance its international brand influence [7][11]. - The company is actively pursuing international certifications and has achieved significant recognition in ESG ratings, which are increasingly important for global market entry [8][12]. Sustainability Efforts - Kweichow Moutai has implemented comprehensive sustainability measures, including carbon footprint reduction and resource recycling initiatives, aiming for a 20% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 [13][14]. - The company is also working with suppliers to promote green practices and certifications, contributing to a sustainable supply chain [14].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing a slight decline in revenue and net profit, indicating pressure from external market conditions [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and a net profit of 290 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 800 million yuan, a decline of 4.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, down 9.3% year-on-year [1] Product Structure and Sales Channels - The product structure continues to optimize, with significant growth in self-operated sales outside the region. In 2024, high-end, mid-range, and low-end products generated revenues of 1.53 billion, 510 million, and 130 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.3%, -8.2%, and -20.5% [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 620 million, 130 million, and 30 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +8.8%, -30.7%, and -41.0% [2] - The company’s direct sales channel showed resilience, with revenue of 490 million yuan in 2024, up 90.9% year-on-year, and 200 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 69.9% year-on-year [2] Gross Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 52.3%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 48.8%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The sales and management expense ratios for 2024 were 11.9% and 4.1%, respectively, with increases of 2.5 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.1%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 had a net profit margin of 18.0%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company is undergoing significant transformation, focusing on core products and optimizing its marketing system to enhance sales team performance [4] - New product launches and external sales efforts are expected to drive growth, particularly in high-end product segments [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 320 million, 370 million, and 430 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.68, 0.77, and 0.90 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 4.9% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.2 billion yuan, which accounts for 46.35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The dividend yield is estimated at 3.1% based on the market capitalization as of April 28, 2025 [1] Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 5.71 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.5% [2] - For Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue decreased by 8.6%, and ordinary liquor revenue fell by 32.1%, attributed to the early Spring Festival, weak consumption, and proactive destocking [2] - The company's revenue from the domestic market was 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 1.91 billion yuan, up 1.3% [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 73.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from improved product mix [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 76.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increasing slightly [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 35.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 40.6%, also up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Based on the Q1 2025 report, revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered, while gross margin and expense ratios have been adjusted upwards [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.37 yuan, 3.91 yuan, and 4.46 yuan, respectively [4] - The company is considered to have a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, with a target price of 57.29 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [4]