费城联邦储备银行主席安娜·保尔森在美国经济学会年会演讲中评估当前美国经济形势与货币政策前景。 她强调美联储在通胀、就业和经济增长间寻求平衡。 保尔森预计通胀逐步缓和，劳动力市场趋于稳定。 2026年经济增长率或为2%左右。若上述条件实现，2026年晚些时候适度降息可能合适。这一判断基于经 济前景良好发展。政策制定者高度依赖数据。 目前美联储官员对进一步宽松步调存在分歧。部分倾向维持利率不变至获取更多通胀和就业数据。政策 制定者预测中值显示2026年可能仅降息0.25个百分点。市场预期则更为激进。 保尔森指出劳动力市场风险较高。需求放缓速度快于供应减少速度。失业保险申请人数已趋于稳定。劳 动力市场处于波动期，未崩溃。这一评估反映就业市场韧性。政策调整需细致考量。 美联储2025年已进行三次降息。 保尔森认为当前政策仍"略显紧缩"，有助于维持通胀下行压力。她预计过去与当前紧缩政策结合将推动 通胀逐步回归2%目标。关税对商品价格的影响可能在2026年上半年继续支撑通胀。下半年商品通胀将回 落至2%左右。 保尔森表示近期联邦政府停摆对数据收集的影响增加了经济状况解读的复杂性。她的展望未完全基于最 新失业率数据，更侧重 ...

FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基表示："多年来，首次领取失业救济的申请在假期和恶劣 冬季天气期间波动较大，但就业市场的缺乏或实质性疲软令人印象深刻，因为经济没有接近衰退的迹 象。" 标普全球1月2日公布的数据显示，美国2025年12月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）终值为51.8，与此前 初值及市场预期持平，但较11月的52.2有所回落。数据维持在扩张区间，显示美国制造业在多重经济压 力下仍具一定韧性，但扩张力度降至过去五个月来的最低水平，制造业复苏动能正在放缓。 从分项指标来看，12月制造业生产虽仍保持增长，增速较前一个月明显放慢；与此同时，新订单出现了 一年来的首次萎缩，反映出需求端开始显现疲态。标普全球指出，这一变化部分与关税因素有关，关税 持续推高企业运营成本，使制造业企业面临更大的经营压力。尽管如此，投入品价格和产出价格的涨幅 均降至11个月以来的最低水平，显示成本传导压力在一定程度上有所缓和。 标普全球首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出，目前生产增长与订单下降之间的差距已扩大至自 2008年全球金融危机高峰以来的最大水平，凸显制造业面临的潜在风险。如果需求不能尽快改善 ...

Core Viewpoint - Experts generally predict that consumer prices in 2026 will not experience significant inflation, instead showing a trend of "low and moderate recovery" with CPI expected to rise around 0.8% year-on-year, with a possibility of reaching 2.0% in a reasonable range [1] Group 1: CPI and Consumer Behavior - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has expanded, with November CPI rising by 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, driven mainly by an increase in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables which surged by 14.5% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, remaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, with prices for household appliances and clothing increasing [3] Group 2: PPI and Industrial Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking two consecutive months of growth, suggesting a gradual recovery in production material prices [4] - Prices in sectors such as coal mining, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium-ion batteries are stabilizing, with emerging industries showing significant upward price trends, which may eventually affect downstream consumer prices [4] Group 3: Policy Impact on Prices - The "anti-involution" policies implemented this year have played a crucial role in stabilizing prices, with accelerated capacity governance in key industries leading to more regulated market competition and a noticeable reduction in price declines in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment [5] - Continued policy efforts to expand domestic demand and promote consumption are expected to further support price recovery, mitigating risks of deflation or uncontrolled inflation [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that starting from 2026, families with deposits exceeding 500,000 may face four major challenges related to low interest income, inflation, investment risks, and the increasing number of small bank failures [3][4][9] Group 2 - The first challenge is the decreasing interest income from deposits, with the interest rate for one-year large deposits dropping from 2.25% to 1.4%, resulting in a reduction of interest income by 4,250 yuan for a 500,000 yuan deposit [3][6] - The second challenge is that deposit interest income cannot keep up with inflation, as the purchasing power of the principal decreases each year due to rising prices of essential goods [4][6] - The third challenge is the confusion regarding investment options, as many depositors are uncertain about how to invest their money amidst low interest rates and high investment risks [7][8] - The fourth challenge is the increasing number of small bank failures, which poses a risk to depositors who previously favored these banks for higher interest rates [9][12] Group 3 - For risk-averse investors, it is suggested to purchase large deposits from joint-stock banks, which offer higher yields than state-owned banks while maintaining lower risks compared to small banks [12] - For investors willing to accept some risk, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, dividing funds into fixed-income products, low-risk investments, and medium-risk options like mixed funds [12]

保尔森坦言，关税政策对商品价格的影响，或将导致 2026 年上半年通胀率维持在高位，但她预计，今 年下半年商品通胀率将回落至与 2% 目标相符的区间。 美联储在过去三次议息会议中累计降息 75 个基点，目前官员们对于 2026 年的降息幅度存在分歧。越来 越多的官员倾向于维持利率不变，至少要等到获取更多通胀与就业相关数据后，再做出政策调整决定。 费城联邦储备银行行长安娜・保尔森称，2026 年下半年适度追加降息或将具备合理性，但这一可能性 的前提是美国经济前景保持向好态势。 保尔森将在周六于费城举行的美国经济学会年会上发表事先准备好的演讲，她在讲稿中表示："我观察 到通胀正逐步趋缓，劳动力市场趋于稳定，今年经济增速将维持在 2% 左右。若上述态势均能实现，那 么今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率进行小幅后续调整，很可能是合理的政策选择。" 这位费城联储行长指出，劳动力市场风险仍居高不下，劳动力需求的放缓速度，已超过特朗普政府收紧 移民政策所导致的劳动力供给缩减幅度。 但她也提到，失业保险申领数据已呈现企稳迹象。她表示："尽管劳动力市场显然正承压趋缓，但并未 走向崩溃。" 保尔森认为，即便美联储近期已实施降息操作，当前 ...

美联储保尔森：关税是通胀持续高于目标的关键因素。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

以下文章来源于格隆 ，作者万连山 格隆 . 一个游走于资本市场与佛祖之间的浪子。我可以生，可以死，我大笑，由天决定！ 本文来自微信公众号： 格隆 ，作者：万连山，题图来自：AI生成 今年是贵金属大牛之年。其中，铜的剧情最为惊奇。 我们过去称铜为"铜博士"，经济好铜涨，经济差铜跌—— 高度敏感于全球流动性、经济预期与通胀 变化。 但最近几个月发生了什么？ 全球PMI还在荣枯线挣扎，铜价却像打了激素一样往上冲。 更魔幻的是，一边是美国仓库里堆成山的现货，COMEX库存较年初暴涨330%，创下22年新高；另 一边是亚洲、欧洲陷入铜荒，LME库存跌至13万吨以下，新加坡仓库甚至出现"提货即空仓"的奇 观…… 在这个不合理的时代，种种不合理的现象，或许才是合理的。 一、单边狂欢 如果说石油是工业血液，铜就是AI时代的神经系统。 AI数据中心在本质上就是一个巨大的、发热的铜线团。 传统IDC单机柜功率仅5kW～8kW，AI数据中心机柜功率密度可达30kW～150kW，差距极其巨大。 高功率密度直接催生出两大用铜需求。 首先，电力传输需要更粗的铜芯电缆和铜母排，以降低30%以上的导电损耗。 随着芯片热设计功耗突破700W甚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment suggests that having more savings is advantageous due to low inflation and declining prices, allowing individuals to maintain purchasing power and avoid investment risks [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - As of November 2025, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0% year-on-year, indicating potential inflation risks in the future [1]. - The current bank deposit interest rates have dropped significantly from 3.25% to 1.75%, a decline of over 40%, with further decreases anticipated [1]. Group 2: Purchasing Power - The purchasing power of savings remains stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing no growth year-on-year, indicating that prices for essential goods like housing, vehicles, and food are decreasing [3][5]. - For example, the price of pork has decreased, allowing individuals to buy more with the same amount of money, enhancing the value of savings [5]. Group 3: Investment Risks - Investment risks are rising, with many investors experiencing losses in funds, and 81.1% of retail investors in the A-share market reporting losses in 2025 [8]. - Holding cash allows individuals to avoid these investment risks, as the principal and interest on savings remain secure despite low rates [8]. Group 4: Financial Security - Having savings provides a buffer against unexpected events such as job loss or medical emergencies, allowing individuals to manage crises without immediate financial pressure [11]. - Business owners can use their savings to cover operational costs during downturns, ensuring stability in challenging economic conditions [11]. Group 5: Opportunities in a Downturn - In a deflationary environment, individuals with substantial savings have the opportunity to invest in undervalued assets once market bubbles burst, positioning themselves for future gains [13]. - The ability to acquire shares in struggling companies at low prices can lead to significant wealth accumulation when the economy rebounds [13].

2025年，全球各类资产的强劲表现是自2009年以来最强劲的，当时正值金融危机后期，各国政府采取了 广泛的政策干预。当年，跨资产的同步上扬使得多元化投资似乎变得轻而易举，但也引出了对市场未来 走势的担忧。当原本旨在互相抵消的资产一致上涨时，投资组合的保护能力可能下降。 随着市场步入2026年，人们的担忧主要不是去年上涨是否非理性，而是这种上涨势头是否难以为继。华 尔街的预期继续基于人工智能巨额投资、强劲的经济增长以及政策制定者能够适当放松货币政策而不引 发通胀的前景。来自多家机构的预测显示，这些因素的持续存在得到了普遍认同。 尽管如此，市场情绪中仍存在谨慎成分。鉴于某些行业快速扩张，尤其是与人工智能和核能相关的股 票，投资者对持续性持谨慎乐观态度，担心未来的回报可能会因快速增长而减弱。同时，投资者对通胀 隐忧仍未消散，部分认为能源价格的上升或政策失误可能会逆转通胀压力缓解的趋势。 2026年初，市场对人工智能的乐观情绪推动股市开局强劲，其中新兴市场尤其受到在人工智能崛起的助 推，显示出巨大的投资潜力。这一趋势反映了投资者在经济背景与科技进步中对新兴市场的热情。 总而言之，尽管2026年市场环境中依旧存在各种阻 ...

Group 1 - The market has continued its upward momentum from the end of last year, with global stock markets rising and investor confidence remaining high, driven by factors such as the AI boom, easing inflation, and supportive central bank policies [1] - The synchronized performance across various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, is notable, with credit spreads narrowing and commodity prices rising despite easing inflationary pressures [1] - The financial environment is approaching its loosest level since 2025, indicating rising valuations and a consensus among investors regarding economic growth and AI expectations [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of the past year's strong performance, with some experts warning that the factors driving returns may not remain constant [2] - The strong performance of the stock market has contributed to a 18% return in the US stock market and a 23% increase in global stock markets, with government bonds also rising nearly 7% due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [5] - The volatility in the market has significantly decreased, with the bond market experiencing its largest annual decline in volatility since the financial crisis, and investment-grade bond spreads narrowing for the third consecutive year [5][8] Group 3 - There is a prevailing optimism among asset allocators regarding economic growth and policy support, which they believe can offset high valuations [9] - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy has seen a resurgence, with a return of 14%, while risk parity strategies have achieved a 19% increase, marking the best annual performance since 2020 [8] - Despite the overall positive sentiment, there are warnings about potential inflationary pressures, particularly from rising energy prices, which could reverse recent progress [6]