Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the trade war will lead to stagflation tendencies in the second half of 2025, with global GDP growth expected to slow to an annualized rate of 1.4% and core inflation rising to 3.4% due to inflation driven by U.S. tariffs [2][3] - The commodity production sector is expected to be the first to feel the impact of economic slowdown, with global factory output and capital spending projected to contract [2] - Despite rising inflation in the U.S., lower-than-expected growth is likely to drive moderate deflation in other regions, with the Eurozone's core inflation rate expected to fall below 2% [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley assesses that the global GDP growth has an upward risk bias for the second half of 2025, driven by a positive evaluation of the private sector's health, a supportive financial environment, and expected fiscal policy easing [3] - The risk of a significant growth surprise is skewed to the downside, with a 40% probability of the U.S. entering a recession, driven by concerns over household purchasing power and low corporate sentiment [3] - The behavior of a still-healthy corporate sector, particularly avoiding layoffs, is crucial for maintaining U.S. economic expansion, although this may come at the cost of profit margin compression [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Boston Fed President Collins signals a personal inclination towards interest rate cuts later this year, but emphasizes high uncertainty in policy direction due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The current U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, and monetary policy is in a "good position," but future adjustments will heavily depend on data, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation [3][5]. - The cancellation of some extreme tariffs has alleviated some inflationary pressures, but the remaining tariffs' effects are not fully realized, with core PCE expected to remain "slightly above" 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - As businesses complete inventory adjustments, tariffed goods are expected to gradually enter the supply chain, potentially leading to further inflation in the coming months [5]. - If price pressures persist, the Fed may need to delay rate cuts or reassess its policy path [5][8]. Fed's Internal Dynamics - The recent Fed meeting maintained interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, with notable internal divisions on the timing of rate cuts. Some members advocate for easing as early as July, while others, including Powell, prefer a wait-and-see approach [5][8]. - Collins' stance is more centrist, neither ruling out the possibility of rate cuts this year nor dismissing the potential for policy shifts due to external shocks [5][8]. Market Expectations - Market analysis suggests that Collins' comments reinforce the Fed's "data-dependent" stance. If inflation rises again due to tariffs, the Fed may need to maintain high rates longer; conversely, signs of economic weakness could lead to earlier rate cuts [8]. - Currently, futures markets are betting on the earliest rate cut in September, but this expectation may fluctuate with policy uncertainties [8].

Group 1 - The Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey warns that the volatility in oil prices and developments in the Middle East complicate interest rate decisions [2][4] - Bailey emphasizes the unpredictability of the current situation, noting that oil prices surged above $80 per barrel before dropping below $70 following a ceasefire announcement [2][4] - The central bank faces challenges as higher energy costs could exacerbate inflation, making rate cuts more problematic [4][6] Group 2 - Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene indicates that risks are two-sided, leaning towards downside growth and upside inflation [6] - Greene expresses concern over the prospect of stagflation, where economic stagnation occurs alongside high inflation [6][8] - The need for a cautious and gradual approach to monetary policy is highlighted due to ongoing uncertainties in the UK economy [8] Group 3 - Investment banks report that oil prices have increased by at least 75% year-on-year, potentially raising market risks significantly [9] - The Bank of England's analysis suggests that sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to further complications in oil supply [9] - Historical data indicates that surges in oil prices during late business cycles have often resulted in economic recessions [9] Group 4 - Bailey notes that the UK job market is weakening, with companies responding to increased national insurance contributions by cutting wages and jobs [11][30] - Concerns are raised about entrenched inflation expectations, with the risk that households and businesses may adjust their expectations in response to rising costs [11][30] - The overall economic landscape has seen a reduction of approximately 250,000 jobs over the past year, with the unemployment rate reaching a four-year high of 4.6% [32] Group 5 - The Bank of England plans to reassess price growth in August, with service sector inflation being a key indicator for future inflation trends [34] - Current consumer price inflation stands at 3.4%, primarily driven by energy and utility prices, with service price inflation remaining high at 4.7% [34] - The central bank's approach to interest rates is more conservative compared to the European Central Bank, which has a rate of 2% [34]

阅读此文之前，请您点击一下"关注"，既方便您讨论和分享，又能给您带来不一样的参与感，感谢您的 支持 本文陈述所有内容，皆有可靠来源赘述在文章结尾。 伊以冲突停火，伊朗在这件事情上始终保持沉默，哈梅内伊对于此事没有发表任何看法，面对美以"重 启核计划就打击"的威胁，伊朗的态度始终让人捉摸不透。 特朗普和内塔尼亚胡 可是没想到的是，伊朗先是宣布重启核项目，后又称核设施受美军袭击严重受损，这样看伊朗是"服 软"了，因此特朗普顺势表示下周将与伊朗会谈，还暗示会放松对伊朗的制裁。 信息来源央视新闻 可局势急转直下，哈梅内伊突然接连强硬发声，直言"给美国一记耳光"，从沉默到强硬，从"服软"到反 击，特朗普态度为何转变，而伊朗强硬表态背后，又有着什么样的原因？ 特朗普的态度为什么转变 当冲突爆发时，导弹还没落地，国际油价就已经飙，而石油就像全球经济的命脉，它的价格波动直接影 响着所有人的生活成本。 图片来源网络 从加油站的汽油、超市的食品到工厂生产的商品，价格上涨最终都会转化为普通人的账单压力，也就是 通货膨胀。 对美国而言，通胀尤其棘手，因为它会侵蚀民众的购买力，引发不满情绪，而大选年的总统最怕这种局 面。 图片来源网络 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve should adopt a more cautious interest rate policy amid uncertain economic outlook, according to Richmond Fed President Barkin [1] - Barkin's views contrast with other Fed officials who suggest that the July policy meeting could be significant, potentially considering rate cuts if inflation continues to cool or the job market shows signs of weakness [1] - The Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged in the recent policy meeting, with median expectations indicating two rate cuts by year-end, although more officials believe only one cut may be necessary, or possibly none [1] Group 2 - Barkin expressed cautious optimism regarding current inflation data but highlighted new risks in the coming months, including rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions that could increase oil prices and impact business investment and hiring [1] - Concerns about potential "stagflation" pressures were raised, indicating a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation remains high, with businesses beginning to cut back on hiring and investment due to uncertainties [1] - Long-term structural changes in the labor market, such as reduced immigration and increased reliance on AI and automation, may complicate the Fed's efforts to manage the economy [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.28%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.47% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE 100 both up by 0.38%, while France's CAC40 is up by 0.17% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.35% to $65.15 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose by 0.47% to $66.74 per barrel [3][4] Economic and Policy Insights - Reports indicate that former President Trump is considering early nominations for the next Federal Reserve Chair, expressing dissatisfaction with current Chair Powell's pace on interest rate cuts [4] - Analysts from JPMorgan warn that current trade policies could lead to stagflation in the US by 2025, with a 40% chance of recession in the second half of this year [7] - Apollo Global Management's chief economist predicts a critical turning point for the US economy, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.2% and inflation potentially reaching 3% by year-end [9] Company-Specific Developments - Micron Technology reported a record Q4 revenue of $9.3 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase, driven by strong sales of DRAM chips [10] - Nvidia's CEO Huang Renxun forecasts that robotics, particularly humanoid robots, will become a significant growth driver for the company, alongside AI technologies [11] - Tesla's recent Robotaxi launch faced technical issues during public testing, raising concerns about the commercial viability of its autonomous driving technology [12] - Shell has stated it has no intention of acquiring BP, dispelling rumors of a merger between the two oil giants [13]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]

与此同时，通胀问题依然棘手。Sløk预测，到年底，美国的通胀率可能仍将维持在百分之三左右，远高于美联储百分之二的目标水平。这一数字较此前百分 之二点四的预测显著上升，反映出物价压力的持续性。尽管美联储已采取了一系列紧缩措施，但通胀的黏性使得市场对降息的预期不断推迟，进一步加剧了 经济的不确定性。 劳动力市场的表现同样不容乐观。Sløk预计，美国失业率将在未来十八个月内持续攀升，今年可能从当前的百分之四点二升至四点四， 而到明年或将突破百分之五。历史经验表明，失业率的上升往往与滞胀周期相伴而生。上世纪七八十年代，美国曾经历严重的滞胀，失业率一度飙升至接近 百分之十的高位。如今，类似的阴影似乎正在重现。 Sløk在一份最新研究报告中指出，美国经济增长已显疲态，而通胀压力却未见明显缓解。他认为，这一局面的形成与近年来贸易政策的调整密切相关。关税 政策的变动不仅增加了经济下行的风险，还推高了物价水平，形成了典型的滞胀冲击。华尔街对今年经济增长的预期已普遍下调，而对通胀的预测则小幅上 升，这种趋势进一步印证了滞胀的可能性。 美国经济增长放缓已成为不争的事实。Sløk预计，今年美国GDP增速可能降至百分之一点二，较去年第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is at a critical juncture of stagflation, characterized by slowing economic growth and high inflation, primarily driven by Trump's tariff policies [1] Economic Predictions - GDP growth is expected to be halved to approximately 1.2% by 2025, down from a peak of 3.1% in Q3 2024 [2] - Inflation is projected to hover around 3% by the end of the year, significantly up from the 2.4% forecast prior to the tariffs [3] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to over 5% by 2026, increasing from the current 4.2% [4] - There is a 25% probability of recession within the next 12 months, a shift from previous expectations of no recession prior to the tariffs [5]

今年4月，在美国总统特朗普宣布全面加征关税引发市场动荡期间，美国国债收益率曾急剧攀升。摩根 大通预测，美国两年期国债收益率年末将收于3.5%，基准十年期收益率将达4.35%。截至周三，二者分 别报3.8%和4.3%。 由于关税导致的顽固通胀和经济韧性，该行预计美联储在2025年12月至2026年春季期间将累计降息100 个基点，这个时点晚于利率期货交易员的普遍预期——截至周三，市场押注今年将进行两次25个基点的 降息。分析师补充称，若出现经济衰退或增速超预期下滑，或将引发更激进的降息周期。 报告称："关税上调带来的滞胀效应，是我们调降今年GDP增长预期的关键动因。我们仍认为经济衰退 风险居高不下。" 据了解，滞胀这种经济增长停滞与持续通胀并存的棘手局面，曾在上世纪70年代长期困扰美国经济。 鉴于美国经济增长动能减弱，而其他经济体实施的增长支持政策将提振新兴市场等货币，这家美资银行 对美元前景持悲观态度。而随着美国债务市场规模不断扩大，该行预计外国投资者、美联储及商业银行 对美国国债的需求占比将逐步下降。 报告指出，投资者持有美债所要求的风险补偿(即期限溢价)可能随时间推移上升40-50个基点，但预计不 会重现 ...