Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - A-shares' major indices rose collectively, with significant recovery in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was strong, with over 4,700 stocks rising. Overseas, the ceasefire in the Middle East eased geopolitical tensions, and the Fed signaled a potential interest rate cut, which alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate and boosted market risk appetite. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are still under pressure, and the recovery of domestic demand may become the main driving force for economic growth. Strategically, it is recommended to lightly open positions on dips [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - IF, IH, IC, and IM's main and sub - main contracts all rose. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 3852.4, up 52.6 [2] - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread rose to 1188.6, up 19.2 [2] - The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts showed various trends. For example, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 19.8, up 6.2 [2] Futures Position Data - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 29,840.00, up 3076.0 [2] Spot Price Data - The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. For example, the CSI 300 was 3904.03, up 46.1 [2] - The basis of the main contracts showed different changes. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 51.6, up 8.9 [2] Market Sentiment Data - A - share trading volume reached 14,480.59 billion yuan, up 3011.36 billion yuan. The margin trading balance was 18,169.01 billion yuan, up 44.20 billion yuan [2] - The proportion of rising stocks was 88.20%, up 6.15%. The Shibor was 1.370%, up 0.003 [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market strength was 8.20, up 0.60. The technical aspect was 8.80, up 0.60 [2] Industry News - Iran launched a missile attack on a US military base in Qatar, but there were no US casualties. Trump thanked Iran for the prior notice and called for peace. A cease - fire agreement has been reached, involving two 12 - hour cease - fire periods [2] - Fed Vice - Chair Bowman said she might support an interest rate cut as early as July. Fed's Goolsbee also expressed views on interest rate cuts and stagflation risks [2] Key Data to Focus On - June 24, 20:30: US Q1 current account [3] - June 24, 22:00: Fed Chair Powell testifies on monetary policy in the House [3] - June 25, 20:30: US May PCE and core PCE [3]

1. Index Movements - On June 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to close at 3381.58 points, with a turnover of 442.789 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.43% to close at 10048.39 points, with a turnover of 679.817 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.31% with a turnover of 239.995 billion yuan, opening at 5966.5, closing at 6078.22, with a daily high of 6083.53 and a low of 5965.66 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.61% with a turnover of 146.035 billion yuan, opening at 5613.28, closing at 5674.17, with a daily high of 5684.4 and a low of 5613.28 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.41% with a turnover of 72.036 billion yuan, opening at 2664.64, closing at 2684.78, with a daily high of 2692.91 and a low of 2656.68 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index rose 0.29% with a turnover of 232.482 billion yuan, opening at 3831.17, closing at 3857.9, with a daily high of 3867.59 and a low of 3827.08 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 78.63 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computer, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 34.66 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and national defense and military industry significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 300 rose 11.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as communication and food and beverage pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 11.06 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and coal significantly pulling the index up, while the food and beverage sector pulled the index down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 66.55, IM01 was - 141.01, IM02 was - 217.17, and IM03 was - 390.88 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 46.1, IC01 was - 97.95, IC02 was - 149.85, and IC03 was - 271.17 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 35.08, IF01 was - 50.58, IF02 was - 63.57, and IF03 was - 92.48 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was - 33.35, IH01 was - 35.67, IH02 was - 34.33, and IH03 was - 36.34 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [21][25][26]. - For IC, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [21][27]. - For IF, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [22]. - For IH, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [23][24].

中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约向上触及6000点，日内涨2.46%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term overseas disturbances have significantly increased, suppressing risk preferences. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the US intervention has an impact on the global and A - share markets. The domestic policy is expected to strengthen due to factors such as investment and inflation data [1][4]. - The market is in a pattern of frequent style switches between large - cap and small - cap stocks, lacking a continuous upward main - line opportunity [1]. - For different futures varieties, their price trends vary in the short and medium - term, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][5][8][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range oscillation, with an increasing probability of a rebound in IC and IM - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound oscillation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and try to go long on IM2507 on dips - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances suppress risk preferences; domestic demand needs further policy support; the market style switches frequently, and the four major indexes are at the lower edge of the box, increasing the probability of a rebound [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, and long - term bonds continue their relatively strong momentum - **Medium - term View**: Relatively strong - **Reference Strategy**: Reduce long positions in trading accounts for T2509 or TL2509, and hold long positions in allocation accounts - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances increase, benefiting safe - haven assets; the central bank's net injection has made the inter - bank liquidity balanced; domestic economic data shows that policy support is expected to strengthen [2][4] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79200 - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillation - based trading approach - **Core Logic**: Inflation remains high in the US; global copper supply is tight, and China's copper imports have changed; copper demand in the new energy vehicle industry is strong, while air - conditioner production varies; copper inventories have decreased; the US tariff policy intensifies the supply - demand imbalance, but the domestic off - season may affect prices [5][6][7] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 7350 - 7450 - **Medium - term View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 7000 - 8500 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000, and go short on futures on rallies - **Core Logic**: China's industrial silicon production has decreased; demand has also declined; the inventory is at a high level [8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 30,000 - 32,000 - **Medium - term View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 30,000 - 40,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2507 - C - 45000 and hold until maturity, and chase short on futures - **Core Logic**: China's polysilicon production has decreased; demand has declined; the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 58,000 - 60,000 - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with an operating range of 56,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 and hold until maturity - **Core Logic**: The spot price is at a low level, which is negative for futures prices; China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production has increased, and the inventory is at a high level [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - IC2507 has a discount of 51.11 points, and IM2507 has a discount of 64.79 points, indicating a bearish signal. The US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and the market should closely monitor Iran's response. Short - term uncertainties may decrease, with oil prices opening high and closing low. The market corrected last week due to uncertainties between Israel and Iran, and market hotspots decreased. The margin trading balance is 1809.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5 billion yuan, also a bearish signal. IH2507 has a discount of 36.92 points, and IF2507 has a discount of 42.24 points, showing a neutral situation. The main contracts are ranked as IM>IC>IF>IH, and IH, IF, IM, IC, and IF are below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The long positions of IH main contracts decreased, those of IF main contracts increased, and those of IC main contracts decreased, showing a bullish signal. The US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities and limited benefits from the Lujiazui Forum, along with global stock market adjustments, have increased the upward pressure on domestic indices, leading to a weak adjustment of the indices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Index Contract Information**: Details of contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms are provided [4]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: Charts of the base and spread of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 500 are presented, with data sourced from Wind Information and organized by Dayue Futures [7][10]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, etc. are shown [13]. - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of style indices such as the 300 - cycle index, 300 - non - cycle index, etc. are presented [16][19]. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium**: A chart of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is provided, showing the premium situation of AH shares [23]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: A chart of the PE (TTM) of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index is presented [26]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: A chart of the PB of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index is provided [28]. Market Capital - **Stock Market Capital Inflow**: A chart of the capital inflow into the A - share market and the CSI 300 is presented [30]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: A chart of the margin trading balance and the CSI 300 is provided [32]. - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: A chart of the net inflow of northbound capital is presented [34]. - **Stock Unlock**: Although mentioned, no specific content is provided [36]. - **Capital Cost**: A chart of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates is presented [40]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: Charts of the turnover rates (based on free - floating market value) of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are provided [43][46]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: Although mentioned, no specific content is provided [48]. Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: A chart of the dividend yields of index futures and the 10 - year treasury bond yield is presented [52]. - **Exchange Rate**: A chart of the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is provided [54]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: Although mentioned, no specific content is provided [55]. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: Charts of the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are mentioned, but no specific content is provided [57][59][61].

研究所 中东动荡 股指回落债震荡 ----国信期货金融周报 2025-6-23 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 研究所 上证50、沪深 300震荡偏弱。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 中证500高位回 国债期货高位震 荡。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 落。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 成交额小幅回 落。 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500、中 证1000有所 回暖。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1. ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 23 日 股指期货：阶段性扰动阶段，大趋势不变 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周消息面事件较多，包括经济数据、LPR 发布，陆家嘴论坛、美联储议息会 议召开等。但最终市场走势下行，我们认为核心驱动在于，中东再生战事，陆家嘴论坛政策以行业政策为 主，因此在国内驱动缺乏利多，外部利空增加的环境下，行情重心回落。风格方面，在外部风险增加环境 下，风险偏好回落对小微盘股的扰动更为明显，成长风格跌幅更大。 近期市场对于小微盘交易拥挤担忧程度较大，而消息面因地缘扰动加剧，内部对冲有限，导致资金顺 势出现获利了结动作，带来行情的调整。对于当下的外部扰动消息，周末似乎仍有潜在升级可能，不过， 就像贸易战，对地缘事件的预测如同水中捞月，因此重预测不如重应对。我们认为基于当前的宏观基本面 趋势来看，今年股市依然是依靠拉估值带动的震荡走升行情。不过，目前市场估值并没有较高的安全边 际，小微盘的拥挤交易一旦转向，也容易出现一定的调整。因此我们认为后期行情上，继续保持多头心 态，但是须结合行情调整幅度（技术面 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 futures declined by 0.12% while the Dow futures increased by 0.20% and the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.30% [1] - The Russell 2000 futures rose by 0.10% [2]

作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.6.20」 股指期货周报 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体收跌，多数指数跌超1%。四期指除IH外均录得下跌，大盘 蓝筹股强于中小盘股。周一，5月份国内经济数据公布，除社零外，增速均较前值下滑；周 四凌晨，美联储公布利率决议，维持政策利率不变，且在会后释放鹰派信号，推动美元兑离 岸人民币汇率走强，对A股市场情绪起到一定抑制。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周有所回落。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | -0.27 | 0.31 | 3773.6 | | | IH2509 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 2635.4 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US released no significant data. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. Geopolitical news has led to significant asset fluctuations. A-shares fell on Thursday due to the lack of economic利好 policies from the financial meeting and the Middle East geopolitical turmoil. The subsequent trend of A-shares may either retrace to the gap on April 10 or continue to move sideways [1][2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US released no significant data overnight. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, causing market uncertainty. The US dollar index closed down, US Treasury yields at both short and long ends declined, gold rose slightly, crude oil opened lower and closed down, the US stock market was closed, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened low and closed down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.36%. Only the petroleum and petrochemical sector among the primary sectors rose, while textile and apparel, beauty care, light industry manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals led the decline. There were 716 rising stocks and 4,643 falling stocks in the entire market. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will accelerate the review of rare earth-related export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [5] 1.3 Important News - The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, with increasing internal differences in the voting ratio. Traders expect the bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year. Israel and Iran have been in conflict for seven days, with various parties expressing different stances. There are also news about tariffs, the release of a new index by China Securities Index, a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a notice from the Personal Insurance Department of the Financial Regulatory Administration [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight, the US stock market was closed, and the trend of crude oil prices indicates the continued impact of Middle East geopolitics. A-shares fell on high volume yesterday, similar to the trend on May 23. In the short term, a double-top pattern seems to be forming. The subsequent trend is expected to be either a retracement to the gap on April 10 or continued sideways movement [2][11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as relevant charts showing their basis and inter - contract spreads [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of major stock indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, including their current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns, trading volumes, and valuation metrics. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes and presents relevant valuation and trading volume charts [36][37][40] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presents charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates to reflect the market's liquidity situation [52][53][54]