| Clarkers | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 唐策略东 | | | | | | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | 研究院:李泽矩 | 投资咨询号: Z0000116 | | | | | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 行业板块 | | | | 短期建议股指期货轻仓观望,静待市场方向明朗。由于五一期间海外不确 | 股指 | 震荡 | 定性较大,加上当前期权波动率处于较低位置,节前可考虑介入股指期权 | | | | | 双买策略。 | 宏观金融 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | 国债 | 震荡 | | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | 白银 | 農汤 日治 | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期谨防价格回调风险。 | 農汤 | 铜 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Energy is in the process of replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a task that will take several years, following significant withdrawals by the Biden administration [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Petroleum Reserve Replenishment - Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized the Biden administration for irresponsibly selling off the SPR, stating that the rapid release has damaged energy infrastructure [1]. - The Department is currently working on replenishing four SPR sites and repairing two others, while seeking additional funding to expedite these efforts [1]. - In March, Wright indicated that the Department was preparing to purchase $20 billion worth of crude oil as the first step in replenishing the national SPR [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the multi-year large-scale crude oil purchasing plan by the U.S. will provide a long-term stable demand source for the market, potentially supporting oil prices to some extent [3]. - As of now, the WTI crude oil price is approximately $61 per barrel, having declined nearly 14% since the beginning of the year [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its global oil demand growth forecast, predicting a 30% drop to 730,000 barrels per day by 2025, and further slowing to 690,000 barrels per day by 2026 [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面拖累，焦煤继续探底 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求存见顶预期，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月 29 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约继续下挫，突 ...

Group 1 - The dynamic changes in the gold-oil ratio reflect market risk appetite, macroeconomic expectations, and geopolitical developments, serving as a leading indicator of the macroeconomy and a warning tool for systemic risks [2][3] - Historically, the gold-oil ratio has remained stable between 10 and 25 since 1970, with significant increases above 25 often preceding major financial or geopolitical events [2][6] - A significant rise in the gold-oil ratio typically indicates heightened market risk aversion and expectations of economic slowdown or recession [6][16] Group 2 - The gold-oil ratio reached historical peaks during various crises, such as 41.4 during the 1973 oil crisis and 30 during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, reflecting the interplay of geopolitical tensions and economic instability [7][10][12] - Recent increases in the gold-oil ratio are attributed to rising market risk aversion, expectations of economic recession, and weakened oil supply-demand dynamics, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policies [16][17] - The U.S. tariff measures have escalated trade tensions, leading to downward revisions in global economic growth forecasts and increased concerns about oil demand [18][21] Group 3 - Financial institutions have adjusted their global oil demand growth forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs predicting a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 400,000 barrels per day for 2026 due to trade tensions [21] - OPEC+ has entered a production increase phase, with plans to exceed market expectations, further exacerbating concerns about oil supply surplus [22][27] - The current oil price is under pressure from three main factors: escalating U.S. tariff policies, pessimistic oil demand outlook, and OPEC+ production increases [27][28]

文 ｜ 刘春彤 裘翔 ▍ 本期更新中信证券2 0 2 5年5月金股组合。 ▍ 板块配置：关注交易性机会，聚焦自下而上产业逻辑清晰的绩优股。 亮马组合是基于策略聚焦观点和行业研究精选推荐，遴选出的月度金股组合。本篇报告为2 0 2 5年第5期，更新中信证券5月1 0大 金股组合。时点上，贸易战仍处僵持阶段，中国政策没有强刺激，也不会和美国达成妥协式协议，是当下的现实情形，5月有望 迎来前期筹码出清后的交易性机会。配置上，自下而上寻找优质个股，主要方向是先进制造，和非美国家特别是欧洲方向的需 求追踪。组合包含金融、周期、地产、医药、制造等产业，以实现多元化配置。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月29日 发布的《 中信证券亮马组合202505—自下而上，发掘高确定性机会 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因 对报告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 本资料所载的证券市场研究信息是由中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"）的研究部编写。中信证券研究部定位为面向专业机构投资者的卖方研究团队。通过微信形式制作 的本资料仅面向中信证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of accurate and complete financial reporting, ensuring that there are no false records or misleading statements in its quarterly report [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - The financial statements for the first quarter of 2025 are unaudited, with the company confirming that there were no profits from mergers under common control [3][6]. - The company has not identified any non-recurring gains or losses that are significant enough to be reported separately [3][6]. Shareholder Information - The report includes details about the total number of ordinary shareholders and the status of major shareholders, although there are no changes reported in the top ten shareholders due to share lending activities [4]. Operational Considerations - The company highlights its reliance on exports to the United States and urges investors to be aware of potential adverse effects from Sino-U.S. trade tensions and tariffs imposed on Chinese exports to the U.S. [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, maintain a long - term bullish view on gold, while prices of coking coal and polysilicon are under pressure [1]. - In the stock index market, the A - share market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short - term, with a clear upward trend in the long - term [2]. - The bond market is expected to trade in a range, with optimistic sentiment but high valuation pressure [2]. - Precious metals are expected to trade in a high - level range due to high macro uncertainties [2][4]. - Non - ferrous metals are generally expected to trade in a range, with different influencing factors for each metal [3][4]. - Lithium carbonate and silicon energy are expected to be weak, with a supply - demand imbalance [5][7]. - Black metals are expected to trade in a range before the holiday, with the focus on the implementation of the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - Coke and coking coal have different trends, with coking coal in a supply - surplus situation and coke in a price - increase negotiation stage [8]. - Soda ash and glass are expected to be weak, with soda ash having short - term support but a long - term downward trend, and glass facing increasing inventory pressure [8]. - PTA is expected to have limited upward price movement due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - Crude oil is expected to trade in a range due to multiple uncertainties [10]. - Methanol and polyolefins are expected to decline, with factors such as supply and demand changes and approaching option expiration [10][11]. - Rubber is expected to be weak, with a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Gold**: Due to the increasing risk of stagflation in the US in the second quarter, hold the previous long positions of Shanghai Gold AU2506. The long - term upward drive of gold is clear, and it is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2506 and sell out - of - the - money put options AU2506P752. Silver also has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put options AG2506P7500 [1][4]. - **Coking Coal**: With limited downstream restocking and high coal mine inventory pressure, hold the previous short positions of coking coal JM2509 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Due to the expected weakening of the fundamentals, hold the sold call option positions of polysilicon PS2506 - C - 40000 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index and Bond - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, funds are cautious. The A - share market has a short - term policy support and a long - term upward trend. IC and IM have greater elasticity, while IF and IH are relatively stable [2]. - **Bond**: The bond market is strong, with loose funds and no clear incremental policies. There is no bearish expectation in the macro - aspect, but high valuation pressure exists before the clear easing of monetary policy [2]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern due to uncertain tariff policies, a tight supply at the mine end, and cautious mid - term demand expectations [3][4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina has a clear upward pressure due to the unchanged over - supply pattern and potential cost reduction. The Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate with limited fundamental driving factors [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a range - bound pattern with upward pressure and downward support. New orders are recommended to wait and see before the impact of the Indonesian policy becomes clear [4]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued [5]. - **Silicon Energy**: The silicon energy industry is in a supply - surplus situation, and the low - price state will continue [5][7]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has limited upward space due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties in trade, geopolitics, and production decisions [10]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is likely to fall, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin price is expected to decline as the demand enters the off - season and production increases [11]. 3.5 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The rebar price will continue to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the crude steel reduction policy and the marginal change in the supply - demand structure. The option strategy is better than the single - sided futures strategy [7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The hot - rolled coil price is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the marginal change in exports and the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price will oscillate before the holiday. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options and wait for a clearer production - limit policy [7][9]. 3.6 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the previous short positions can be continued, with cautious investors taking profit before the holiday [8]. - **Coke**: The coke price is in a price - increase negotiation stage, and the futures price is expected to bottom out [8]. 3.7 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash has short - term support but a long - term downward trend. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the 09 contract and adjust the stop - loss line [8]. - **Glass**: The glass price is expected to decline gradually, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the FG509 contract and lock in some profits [8]. 3.8 Rubber - The rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - decrease expectation. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling call options and pay attention to consumption - stimulating measures before the holiday [11].

美国媒体当地时间4月28日报道称，由于全球多国对美国特朗普政府实施的关税政策予以强烈反击，尤 其中国暂停进口美国农产品的一系列措施，美国农业部门已遭受巨大损失。美国农产品运输联盟负责人 更是直言，美国农产品行业的全面危机已经到来。报道称，一家主营木浆和纸板的出口商表示，其仓库 中有6400吨的货物目前因订单取消而被迫滞留，并产生巨额费用。另有9000吨的货物原定于5月中旬到 达中国，鉴于中国对美加征关税采取反制措施，届时该批货物将不得不在保税仓库滞留或转口贸易，相 应成本难以估量。有美国农产品出口商警告称，中国市场难以被取代，目前由于中美两国贸易下降，美 国农产品的价格已经受到影响，一些产品的价格已经下降超过了20%。（央视财经） ...

在当今这个扑朔迷离的时代，中美两国的贸易摩擦正如一场喧嚣的争斗，惊心动魄，令人亡魂俱冒。在这一场你来我往的棋局中，美国的决策者们似乎忽然 觉醒，意识到自己存在着重大的战略误判，今时今日，孤掌难鸣的局面，如同一个翻覆的桌面，令人猝不及防。如此一来，他们不得不急忙拼凑起应对小 组，试图解开供应链面临的难题。而此时的美国，虽然表面上依然强撑着，心中却难以安宁，似乎是要在硬汉气概中与中国一决高下。 不可否认，股市的道理就如同铁打的指数流水的股，指数虽在3040点后有所反弹，但个股的命运却并非如此整齐。尽管指数有可能上涨至3400乃至3500点， 然而个股的位置却已经大相径庭，市场必然会经历一场重新的排兵布阵与洗牌。不难看出，结构化与分化的过程始终在进行。对于九连阳的现象，许多人或 许迷茫不解，仍在各种窗口指导的讨论中徘徊。但从技术分析的层面来看，这无不合理。沪指之所以强劲，归根结底就是权重股的推动，银行股自应水到渠 成地涨。 而更为积极的信号已经浮现，3300点的稳固与冲击3400的欲望并非虚妄。近期的政策频频强调稳住股市与楼市，并提出积极的财政政策，种种迹象表明，官 方对市场呵护之心已显露无遗。展望下周，整体走势仍 ...

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market continued to rebound this week, driven by a potential easing of US tariffs on China, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.15%, 2.74%, and 1.96% respectively [4][14] - All major industry sectors, except telecommunications, saw gains this week, with healthcare and information technology sectors leading with weekly increases of approximately 8% and 6% [4][14] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Index rose to around 55%, still below the 5-year average [4] Market Valuation Level - The valuation level of the Hong Kong stock market remains below the 5-year average, indicating potential for future growth [4] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 1.53 billion HKD, a decrease from 1.99 billion HKD the previous week, with 62 companies participating in buybacks, down from 78 [24][25] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the buybacks with 913.64 million HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with 150.25 million HKD [24][25] - The financial sector saw the highest concentration of buyback amounts, driven by significant buybacks from AIA and HSBC [28] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buying companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net inflow of 4.197 billion HKD and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with 2.227 billion HKD [32] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a net outflow of 4.540 billion HKD and China Mobile (0941.HK) with 1.875 billion HKD [33] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The political bureau meeting emphasized the urgency of expanding domestic demand amidst a severe external environment, indicating a focus on stabilizing economic growth [44][46] - The meeting also highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external shocks and support domestic economic stability [46] - Recent data showed a 0.8% increase in profits for industrial enterprises in the first quarter, reflecting some improvement due to policy support, although external demand pressures remain [37][39] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report continues to favor sectors with relative economic resilience, such as automotive, technology, and internet industries, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [46]