摩根士丹利乐观，认为美元走弱、ETF买盘、央行增持和避险需求会把金价往上推，这种观点逻辑上没有错，但有点像给干旱季节里的种子打保温针，可能 会发芽，也可能被下一场风吹散，金融市场不是历史课本，预期会变化，利率路径会变化，地缘政治会变化，任何单一要素都不足以撑起长期趋势。 而哈塞特那句"我相信鲍威尔也认同一点——我们可能应该继续降低利率"更像一句暗示，既肯定了降息方向，又留下了退路，言下之意是政策要看数据，但 也要照顾预期，这不是经济学的纯粹，是政治与市场共同编织的现实，这种半公开的谋合，让市场每一个风吹草动都放大了。 地缘政治呢，不是不存在，而是在不同时间点发挥不同作用，泽连斯基要去伦敦拉援助，俄罗斯又宣布禁止黄金金条出口将于2026年生效，这两个消息并列 放在一起，像两只老虎在笼子里打架，各自的吼声都能震动市场，但并不意味着市场会持续转向避险，避险只是情绪的通道，资金才是决定性的搬运工，资 金一旦决定离场，金银也会被拉着走。 回到现在，短线的急跌说明了两件事，第一，市场的杠杆在动，第二，信息的节律被放大，交易员在用更细的尺子量任何措辞、任何评论、任何时间点的新 闻，都会成为放大器，市场因此更像一面敏感的铜镜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts if Hassett is elected, but there is uncertainty due to Powell's term, economic factors, and inflation. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid, and attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are interpreted as "QE - like" measures, which are negative for the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate is affected by US economic data, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, and domestic economic policies. Seasonal settlement effects may support the RMB's appreciation [4]. - The current inflation data supports low interest rates, and the bond market has rebounded. Although there are rumors of mortgage subsidy policies, the bond market reaction is limited. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - The container shipping market on the European route has a mix of long and short factors. There is a possibility of price cuts in late December, and the price of the 02 contract may be pushed up due to the shipping companies' price - holding intentions [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium are expected to have their price centers lifted in the medium and long term, while copper prices will be mainly driven by fundamentals after the Fed's rate cut. Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, while alumina is expected to be weak. Zinc will maintain a high - level shock, tin will be in a wide - range shock, and lithium carbonate will have a short - term callback pressure [11][13][15]. - In the energy and chemical market, oil prices are affected by the US - Venezuela tension and the Fed's rate cut. LPG will maintain a shock, PTA - PX will follow the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, MEG - bottle chips will face a decline in terminal demand, and urea will be in a range between fundamentals and policies [34][37][40]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified, the oilseeds market is in a positive spread, the oil market will continue to be sorted, cotton prices may have room to rise, sugar prices will remain weak, egg prices have a long - term over - capacity problem, apple prices will remain strong, and jujube prices will be in a low - level shock [73][74][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market focuses on the appointment of the next Fed Chair. China's November CPI rose year - on - year, and the real estate sector had a significant rise in the afternoon session [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are negative for the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to US economic data and domestic economic policies [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the current inflation data supports low interest rates. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The market has a mix of long and short factors, and there is a possibility of price cuts in late December [6][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices oscillated and corrected. The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are factors, and in the medium and long term, the price centers are expected to be lifted [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: The market generally rose, and in the short term, it is expected to be in shock, while in the long term, it is expected to rise [12][13]. - **Copper**: Prices were strongly sorted, and after the Fed's rate cut, they were mainly driven by fundamentals [14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Prices maintained a high - level shock [17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices were affected by the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) and are expected to be in a wide - range shock [18][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, but in the long term, it has the value of bottom - fishing allocation [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the prices are expected to be weak [22][23]. - **Lead**: Prices are expected to be in shock, with support at the bottom [24]. Steel - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices rebounded slightly, and the overall market is expected to be in a range shock, with the rebar in the range of 3000 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3500 [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices were affected by real - estate news, and the downward space is expected to be limited [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, while coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [29][30][31]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Demand is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly shocked [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices were lifted due to the US - Venezuela tension, and the Fed's rate cut has a limited impact on prices [34][35][36]. - **LPG**: Prices maintained a shock, with a relatively stable supply and demand situation [37][38][39]. - **PTA - PX**: Prices followed the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good in the energy and chemical sector [40][41][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Terminal demand declined comprehensively, and supply - side negative feedback began to appear. Prices are expected to be short - term in shock and long - term in a downward trend [43][44][46]. - **Urea**: Transactions weakened, and prices are expected to be in a range shock [47][48]. - **PP**: The spot market's pessimistic sentiment dragged down prices, and further short - selling is not recommended [49][50][51]. - **PE**: The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continued, and prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [52][53][54]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with different supply - demand situations for pure benzene and styrene [55][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices were in a narrow - range shock, with a stable supply and a mixed demand situation [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spread was low, and the fundamentals have improved, but it is recommended to wait and see [58]. - **Asphalt**: Prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy [59][60]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded due to weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts, and are expected to be in a range shock [61][62]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash prices are under pressure due to over - supply expectations; glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels; caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly shocked [65][66][67]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures prices reached a four - month high, and both pulp and offset paper are recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Log**: Newly registered warehouse receipts suppressed the price, and it is recommended to participate with caution [69][70]. - **Propylene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [71][72]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified, and the long - term trend can be bullish, but the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals [73]. - **Oilseeds**: The positive spread continued, and the market is affected by import and domestic supply - demand situations [74][75]. - **Oils**: The MPOB report was negative, and prices are expected to continue to be sorted [76]. - **Cotton**: Prices broke through the pressure level, and if they hold steady, there may be further upward space [77]. - **Sugar**: Prices remained weak [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and short - term rebounds can be lightly speculated [80]. - **Apples**: The near - month contract was strong, and the overall market remained strong [81][82]. - **Jujubes**: Prices were in a low - level shock, and the short - term downward space may be limited [83][84].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - The decline in electrolytic aluminum prices is limited, with weak spot market trading and slight repair of spot discounts. Social inventory is basically stable with a slight decline. Consumption has rigidity in the off - season, and the low inventory level is not a negative factor for prices. There is optimism about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the economic conference and the expected inventory reduction before the Spring Festival. Overseas liquidity risks need to be vigilant. [6] - GIC is allowed to resume operations. Once a $125 million payment is transferred to the treasury, it can start operating the former Axis mine, indicating the government's support for local bauxite mining and reducing policy uncertainty. The alumina fundamentals lack positive factors, with no significant reduction in domestic supply, continuous increase in social inventory, and weak procurement willingness of electrolytic aluminum plants. The near - month contract is at a large discount to the far - month contract. The cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. [6][7] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum Spot - On December 10, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,770 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,660 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 30 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Futures - On December 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,805 yuan/ton, closed at 21,935 yuan/ton, a change of - 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 22,025 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 159,863 lots, and the position was 185,806 lots. [2] Inventory - As of December 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 595,000 tons, a change of - 1000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 68,587 tons, a change of 724 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 520,800 tons, a change of - 2500 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On December 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2790 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2740 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2820 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2890 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On December 10, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2540 yuan/ton, closed at 2477 yuan/ton, a change of - 81 yuan/ton or - 3.17% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a maximum price of 2546 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2474 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 283,517 lots, and the position was 278,854 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use primary aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a daily price change of 100 yuan/ton. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 21,000 yuan/ton, with a daily price change of 100 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory and Cost - Profit - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons. The theoretical total cost was 21,387 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 387 yuan/ton. [4][5]

交易员最近普遍押注美联储会在这次FOMC会议上降息，市场对降息的期待在升温，但与此有消息说到2026年底前的降息空间可能不足75个基点，这让人又 开始琢磨到底能降多少； | 道琼斯工业平均 | DJIA 纳斯达克 | IXIC 标普500 | SPX | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 47739.32 | -215.67 23545.90 | -32.22 6846.51 | -23.89 -0.35% | | 4828805 | | | | CME"美联储观察"给出的概率显示，12月降息25个基点的概率高达89.4%，维持不变的概率仅10.6%，而到明年1月累计降25个基点的概率为68.5%，累计降 50个基点的概率为23.8%，这些数字成了市场短线波动的重要参照； 与此纳斯达克中国金龙指数微涨0.08%，热门中概股涨跌互现，百度和名创优品领涨，小鹏、网易等表现各异，投资者情绪出现分化； COMEX黄金期货在当天收盘下跌0.54%，报4219.9美元每盎司，黄金短线走低，显然对降息预期和股市反应做出即时调整； 美国劳工统计局方面则宣布，10月份的生产者价格指数不会单独公布，而是与1 ...

这轮金价的波动，核心驱动力离不开美联储的政策动向。 现在市场上最关注的，就是美联储下周即将召开的议息会议。 根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数 据，目前市场预计12月降息25个基点的概率已经高达86.2%，这种强烈的降息预期直接推动了此前金价的持续走高。 金价真的是一夜变天，12月9日报价，黄金市场可能迎来更大变盘。 市场情绪就像坐过山车，前阵子还在接连刷新高位，转眼就出现震荡调整。 12月8 日的报价透出微妙信号，伦敦金现报4201.93美元/盎司，微涨0.03%；国内黄金T D报950.91元/克，小幅下跌0.26%，而周大福、周大生等金店的足金价格 仍稳稳站在1328元/克的高位。 看似涨跌互现的背后，实则是多重力量的激烈博弈。 随着12月9日市场开启新的交易时段，一场更大规模的变盘可能正在酝酿。 中国、土耳其等国一直在持续加仓，核心目的就是通过配置黄金来实现"去美元化"，筑牢外汇储备的安全垫。 这种官方层面的大规模、持续性购金，就 像给金价装上了"压舱石"，即便短期出现波动，也很难出现大幅跳水的情况。 同时，全球的避险需求也在为金价提供支撑。 现在地缘政治冲突还在持续，贸易摩擦的风险也没有完全消除，再 ...

分析师Anna Wong表示："我的评估是政策声明和更新后的预测总体基调偏向鸽派——尽管也存在一些 鹰派的潜在信息。在鸽派方面，委员会大幅上调了增长轨迹，同时下调了通胀前景，并保持了'点阵 图'不变。联邦公开市场委员会还宣布开始进行准备金管理购买。另一方面，政策声明中的一个信号表 明委员会倾向于长期暂停降息。"她继续指出："尽管'点阵图'显示2026年仅降息一次——而市场预期是 两次——我们的观点是美联储明年最终将降息100个基点。这是因为我们预计薪资增长疲软，并且目前 看不到2026年上半年通胀重燃的明显迹象。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

钛媒体App 12月10日消息，债券交易员押注美联储未来一年的降息幅度将更为温和，这反映出全球范围 内押注主要央行将放缓或停止货币宽松政策的趋势。期货和期权交易数据显示，除周三预期中的25个基 点降息外，交易员目前预计美联储在2026年总降息幅度为50个基点。这与一周前的预期形成突然转向， 当时利率互换市场还定价明年将降息近三次。（广角观察） ...

来源：市场资讯 12月10日，贵金属价格今日稳步走高，投资者在本月FOMC会议后即将公布的货币政策决议前主动调整 仓位。NCE平台认为，市场当前的关注核心在于美联储即将发布的政策信号以及会后新闻发布会对2025 年政策路径的指引。随着交易时点临近，市场情绪呈现出明显的前瞻博弈特征，使金银价格维持温和升 势。 高概率降息预期主导市场 并非所有机构都认可贵金属持续走强的逻辑。部分分析师认为，若明年的宽松节奏放缓，贵金属可能面 临阶段性压力。近期衍生品市场对2025年的降息预期已从三次下调至两次，反映市场对进一步宽松的谨 慎态度。若通胀粘性高于预期或经济韧性超出假设，政策可能更趋克制，从而限制贵金属的上行空间。 不过当前金价走势显示，市场定价显然已包含利率之外的多重结构性因素。 期货定价工具显示，本周出现25个基点降息的概率接近确定性，这一点与NCE平台监测到的机构预期方 向基本一致。根据市场数据，当前降息概率约为87%，表明整体共识偏向温和宽松，同时仍保留"鸽中 带鹰"的可能性，即若政策沟通暗示2025年初存在暂停节奏，短期宽松路径可能被重新定价。NCE平台 表示，这种结构性的概率分布也推动了贵金属的前置上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The delayed release of the September PCE data has created significant tension in the U.S. stock market, with investors anxiously awaiting its implications for interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [2][20]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently experiencing a surge in optimism, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a notable decline in the U.S. dollar index and positive movements in Asian and European stock futures [4][6]. - This surge is characterized by a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among investors, prompting them to buy stocks in anticipation of year-end gains, despite underlying economic uncertainties [6][16]. Economic Indicators - The core PCE index, which is a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, has shown a year-over-year increase of 2.7% as of August, remaining above the 2% target for 55 consecutive months. The upcoming September data is critical for future monetary policy [8][20]. - Recent economic indicators, such as ADP employment data and consumer confidence indices, have shown signs of weakness, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [9][10]. Consumer Behavior - Despite negative sentiment reflected in soft data, retail performance has been strong, indicating a divergence in consumer spending patterns. Lower-income consumers are gravitating towards discount stores, while higher-income consumers continue to purchase luxury goods [12][20]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging decision: whether to cut interest rates to support employment while managing persistent inflation. Historical precedents suggest that missteps in such situations can lead to significant economic consequences [14][18]. - The market's current optimism may be overly exuberant, with potential risks if the PCE data does not align with expectations, which could lead to a reassessment of the Fed's monetary policy [16][18]. Upcoming PCE Data Impact - The market's focus is on the upcoming PCE data, with specific thresholds for core month-over-month increases determining the Fed's next steps. A rise of 0.2% would likely support a rate cut, while higher figures could disrupt current market expectations [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing below recent highs, influenced by a combination of a weaker dollar, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and market caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold continues to trade within a range below recent highs, with upward movement limited despite a rebound from lower levels [2]. - The market is focused on the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting, driven by high inflation and a slowing job market [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine, are sustaining demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term resistance for XAU/USD is identified between $4245 and $4250, with a potential breakout leading to targets of $4277 to $4300 [3]. - A drop below $4200 would shift focus to the $4170 to $4165 area, which is critical for maintaining bullish sentiment [3]. Group 3: FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC meeting is expected to be a significant driver for gold prices, with the outcome potentially determining whether gold can surpass the $4250 resistance level [4]. - The market is particularly attentive to the FOMC's statements regarding the pace of rate cuts and any shifts in policy direction indicated by Chairman Powell [5].