中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.54%。热门中概股方面，有道涨超10%，霸王茶姬涨逾6%，比特小鹿涨 超5%，硕迪生物涨逾4%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。下跌个股方面，小牛电动跌超4%，云米科技跌超3%，陆控、奇富科技 跌逾1%。 大型科技股多数走高 美股上市的大型科技股多数上涨，脸书涨超2%，亚马逊、微软涨超1%，特斯拉、苹果、谷歌小幅上涨；英伟达跌逾 1%。 英特尔大涨超10%。 周五（11月28日），美国股市三大指数连续第五个交易日上涨。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.61%，报47716.42点；标普500指数涨0.54%，报6849.09点；纳斯达克综合指数涨 0.65%，报23365.69点。本周，道琼斯工业指数涨3.18%，标普500指数涨3.73%，纳斯达克综合指数涨4.91%。11月， 道琼斯工业指数涨0.32%，标普500指数涨0.13%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.51%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DJI | 道琼斯工业平均 | 4771 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market indices have risen for the fifth consecutive day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.61% to 47,716.42 points, the S&P 500 up 0.54% to 6,849.09 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.65% to 23,365.69 points [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones increased by 3.18%, the S&P 500 by 3.73%, and the Nasdaq by 4.91% [1] - In November, the Dow Jones rose by 0.32%, the S&P 500 by 0.13%, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.51% [1] European Market Performance - Major European indices also saw slight increases, with the DAX up 0.29% to 23,836.79 points, CAC40 up 0.29% to 8,122.71 points, and FTSE 100 up 0.27% to 9,720.51 points [2] - For the week, the DAX rose by 3.23%, CAC40 by 1.75%, and FTSE 100 by 1.9% [2] - In November, the DAX fell by 0.51%, while CAC40 and FTSE 100 saw minimal changes [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.54%, with notable gains in stocks such as Youdao up over 10%, and Bawang Tea up over 6% [3] - However, stocks like Niu Technologies and Yunmi Technology saw declines of over 4% and 3%, respectively [3] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Facebook up over 2%, Amazon and Microsoft up over 1%, while Nvidia fell by over 1% [5] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.82%, with Intel experiencing a significant increase of over 10%, marking its largest single-day gain since September 18 [5] - Reports suggest that Intel may begin shipping Apple's entry-level M-series processors as early as 2027 [5] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks performed strongly, with Pan American Silver up over 7% and Coeur Mining up over 6% [6] - International gold prices rose by over 1%, with COMEX gold futures up 1.59% to $4,256.4 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 4.34% and a monthly increase of 5.51% [8] - The market anticipates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has bolstered gold's price stability [6][8] Oil Market - US oil futures fell by 1.05% to $58.48 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 0.87% to $62.32 per barrel [9] - The US crude oil production reached a record high of over 13.8 million barrels per day in September, exceeding EIA's weekly estimates by approximately 350,000 barrels per day [9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia, oil price forecasts could be adjusted downwards by about $5 per barrel [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the U.S. stock market is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with over 80% of market participants anticipating a 25 basis point cut in December, marking the third consecutive cut since September [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - All three major U.S. stock indices rose over 3% this week, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 maintaining a seven-month upward trend [1]. - The Nasdaq experienced a nearly 5% increase this week, although it ended November down 1.5%, breaking a previous seven-month winning streak [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Trends - The market's recent performance is attributed to the return of "risk appetite" among investors, encouraged by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts [3]. - The decline in AI stocks, which previously led the market, has caused some investors to reassess valuations, leading to a temporary withdrawal of funds from the Nasdaq [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to avoid chasing short-term market trends and to be cautious with high-valuation AI stocks, waiting for corrections to reasonable levels before considering investments [4]. - Sectors benefiting from interest rate cuts and demonstrating stable performance should be monitored for potential investment opportunities [4].

其实周五那天的市场特别有戏剧性，本来美国赶上"黑色星期五"，大家都忙着购物，期货市场的交易量 就比平时清淡，结果芝商所的交易平台还出了几个小时的故障，直接把全球大宗商品的波动给放大了， 连到期的汽油、柴油期货合约都跟着乱了阵脚。就在这种乱糟糟的行情里，原油和金属硬是走出了两条 完全相反的路。 先说说原油，这波四连跌可是2023年以来最长的一次，周五最后收在58美元多一桶。核心原因其实就两 点，一是大家担心市场供应过剩，二是地缘政治的风险溢价在下降。听说特朗普上周跟委内瑞拉的马杜 罗通了电话，还聊到了潜在会面的事，这两国关系一缓和，石油市场的紧张情绪自然就松了不少。另外 大家也在等周日OPEC+的线上会议，目前看他们大概率会维持到2026年初暂停增产的计划，短期也没 法缓解供应压力，油价自然扛不住。还有俄乌那边，普京也说特朗普的停火方案能当谈判基础，虽然关 键分歧还在，但局势缓和的预期已经影响了市场。 各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者、专盯中长线投资的老炮儿！最近大宗商品市场真是 把"反差感"拉满了，一边是原油跌跌不休连着四个月走低，另一边白银、铜价直接飙到历史新高，是不 是好多朋友看懵了，想知道这背 ...

Gold (GC=F) futures settled near $4,240 per ounce on Friday, closing out their fourth straight month of gains and bringing the yellow metal back within shouting distance of its record high on firming expectations for a December rate cut. Dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials has raised the odds that policymakers will decide to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points next month. Since gold doesn’t produce income, its relative attractiveness improves when interest rates fall. Gold hit a r ...

衡量美元兑一篮子六种主要货币强弱的美元指数最新上涨0.1%，报99.624，此前连续五天下跌，创下7 月21日以来最大单周跌幅。 周五，美元有望创下7月下旬以来最差的单周表现，原因是交易员纷纷押注美联储下月将进一步放松货 币政策，同时美国感恩节假期也导致市场流动性趋于紧张。 最明显的改变是美国今年的"黑色星期五"。即使存在很大折扣，许多零售高管都反映，顾客正变得更精 明，越来越注重优惠力度。曾几何时，人们为抢购限时折扣的玩具和电视而在商店过道大打出手的场面 已然不复存在。 对此，业内专家表示，美国消费者多年来都保持持续消费的习惯，因为他们都确信实际前景可能比他们 描述的更好。然而，经历了今年至今关税政策带来的波动后，许多企业选择将部分进口税成本转嫁给消 费者，这让消费者对价格更敏感。 在这当中，玩具、婴幼儿用品、家居用品及团体运动装备等品类受冲击最为严重。数据显示，9月销售 的玩具中有83%涨幅达5%以上，因为美国销售的玩具近80%产自中国。 目前美国的输入性通胀（如关税成本）和核心通胀仍存隐忧，为了在控制通胀与支持就业间平衡，官员 不得不释放降息信号以稳定市场预期。 不过这一变化对中国市场而言，意味着多重积 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index has experienced a decline, dropping below the 100 mark due to weaker-than-expected retail data and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, marking its worst weekly performance since July, currently at 99.70 [1] - US Treasury yields have generally decreased, with the 10-year yield dipping below 4%, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by interest rate outlooks [1] - Spot gold prices surged early in the week, rising nearly $100, and maintained high levels despite fluctuations, while silver showed stronger gains [1] - Non-US currencies strengthened against the dollar, with the euro, pound, yen, and Australian dollar all appreciating due to the dollar's weakness [1] - International crude oil prices fluctuated, initially pressured by positive signs from Russia-Ukraine peace talks but rebounding later in the week amid increased uncertainty [1] Stock Market Insights - US stocks showed overall strength, led by the technology sector, driven by enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - Nvidia faced significant pressure in the AI sector, while Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached new highs [2] CME Technical Issues - CME experienced a nine-hour outage due to a cooling system failure, affecting trading in various futures and options contracts, with implications for contracts worth trillions of dollars [5] - The outage severely impacted US Treasury futures trading, leading to sparse cash bond trading and a lack of hedging options for traders [5] - Gold futures and options trading on Comex was also disrupted, causing price dislocation with London spot prices [5] Investment Bank Perspectives - JPMorgan economists have adjusted their rate predictions, now expecting the Federal Reserve to continue rate cuts in December rather than waiting until January [7] - UBS analysts noted the potential for a delay in the Fed's meeting due to data considerations [7] - Several Wall Street institutions have forecasted the S&P 500 index for 2026, with Deutsche Bank predicting 8000 points, HSBC at 7500 points, and Morgan Stanley at 7800 points, driven by the ongoing AI boom [7] - Emerging markets are expected to rise in 2026, supported by a weak dollar and AI investment trends, with Morgan Stanley recommending long positions in emerging market local currency bonds [7] Major Events Summary - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to a consensus around a potential rate cut in December, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction rising to approximately 87% [8] - The new "19-point" peace plan between the US and Ukraine has been introduced, replacing the previous "28-point" plan, with key negotiations still pending [11] - The UK government announced a budget plan expected to generate an additional £26 billion in tax revenue by 2029/30, primarily through various tax adjustments [13][14] - Trump's "Genesis Project" aims to consolidate AI resources across federal and private sectors, likened to a modern "Manhattan Project" [16] - Nvidia's market position is under threat as Meta shifts to Google's TPU chips, reflecting competitive pressures in the AI hardware space [17][18]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. With uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, the international gold price is approaching its historical high, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through this level [1] - On the first day of the listing of palladium options, market trading was relatively dull. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds clearly returned to rationality. There are signs of a peace negotiation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Palladium has limited consumption growth prospects, while platinum has a supply contraction in South Africa, a wide range of end - consumption fields, and a supply - demand gap this year. It is advisable to buy on dips and consider a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy [2] - There are ongoing discussions about the peace plan between Ukraine and the US. Different stances are shown by both sides. The European Central Bank's outlook remains unclear, and there is an opinion that the interest rate cut cycle has ended. The market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] Specific Content Summaries Precious Metals Market - Overnight, precious metals were in a strong sideways trend. The international gold price is approaching its historical high, and uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects persist [1] - On the first day of palladium option listing, market trading was dull with an implied volatility of around 30% for at - the - money options. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds became more rational. Platinum is stronger than palladium, and it is advisable to buy on dips and conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [2] Geopolitical Situation - Ukrainian and US delegations will continue work on the peace plan this weekend. Germany believes Ukraine needs strong armed forces and security guarantees even after a peace agreement. Russia has expressed its stances on issues such as US missile deployment and Ukraine's potential NATO membership. Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that the outlook is still unclear, and there is a view that the interest rate cut cycle has ended [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 13.1%. By next January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%, maintaining the rate is 9.6%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.1% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is becoming a new focus in the commodity market, with futures prices reaching new highs due to tightening supply signals [1][4]. Supply Concerns - The direct cause of the price increase is heightened market concerns over supply, with silver inventory on the Shanghai Gold Exchange dropping by 58.83 tons to 715.875 tons, the lowest since July 3, 2016 [4]. - Although there was a slight increase of 21.3 tons in inventory on November 25, it remains at a near ten-year low [4]. - China's silver exports surged to over 660 tons in October, marking a historical high, which is directly linked to the rapid consumption of domestic silver inventory [5][6]. Cross-Border Trade Dynamics - Due to concerns over tariffs affecting cross-border shipping costs, commodities like gold, silver, and copper have seen a phenomenon of "cross-border migration" arbitrage ahead of tax implementation [4][6]. - The price of New York commodities often exceeds that of London and other regions due to statistical tax premiums, creating arbitrage opportunities that prompt traders to transport goods to U.S. warehouses [6]. Macroeconomic Support - The entire precious metals market is supported by macroeconomic conditions, with traders betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [4][7]. - Fed officials' dovish comments have reinforced expectations for a rate cut, further supporting precious metal prices [7]. Industrial Metal Market - The theme of supply tightness is also emerging in the industrial metals market, particularly copper, with predictions of a supply gap expanding to 316,000 tons next year [8]. - Demand for copper is driven by ongoing investments in data centers and power grids, while supply growth is hindered by production disruptions and declining ore grades [8].

锡产业期现日报 テ 广发期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月28日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 涨跌幅 单位 现值 前值 涨跌 301800 295200 eeoo 2.24% 250 250 0 0.00% 元/吨 302300 295700 6600 2.23% 185.00 135.00 50.00 37.04% 美元/吨 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 -7.90% -17717.50 -16419.72 -1297.78 元/吨 7.85 7.89 - - 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 -740 -650 -90 -13.85% -360 -480 120 25.00% 元/吨 -90 -120 30 25.00% 370 -30 400 1333.33% 基本面数据(月度) | 指标 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10月锡矿进口 | 11632 | 8714 | 2918 | 33.49% | 世 | | SMM精锡10月产量 | 16090 | 1051 ...