点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 3946 字，阅读全文约需 13 分钟 本文详细资讯可在中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会官网下载：www.cpcaauto.com 1.本周车市概述 乘联分会初步统计： 3月1-31日，全国乘用车市场零售188.9万辆，同比去年同期增长12%，较上月增长 36%，今年以来累计零售506.4万辆，同比增长5%；3月1-31日，全国乘用车厂商批发241万辆，同比去年同期 增长10%，较上月同期增长37%，今年以来累计批发627.5万辆，同比增长12%。 乘联分会初步统计： 3月1-31日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售98.8万辆，同比去年同期增长39%，较上月 同期增长44%，今年以来累计零售241.4万辆，同比增长37%；3月1-31日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发113万 辆，同比去年同期增长40%，较上月同期增长36%，今年以来累计批发284.9万辆，同比增长44%。 2.2025年3月全国乘用车市场零售较强 3月第一周全国乘用车市场日均零售4.0万辆，同比去年3月同期增长14%，较上月同期增长52%。 3月第二周全国乘用车市场日均零售5.8万辆，同比去年3月同期增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24][25] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a net profit of 1.555 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, with revenue of 45.042 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year [1][7] - The company's lead-acid battery business revenue was 41.835 billion yuan in 2024, also down 6% year-on-year, with sales volume of 113.6 GWh, a decline of 9% year-on-year [1][16] - The fluctuation in lead prices significantly impacted the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 16.15% for lead-acid batteries, down 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [1][16] - Domestic policies are expected to stimulate demand for lead-acid batteries in 2025, with new standards for electric bicycles and increased subsidies for trade-in programs [2][17] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, with a new factory in Vietnam expected to enhance service capabilities and drive growth in international markets [2][17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 45.042 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.555 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.10% [1][7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 12.154 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 85% year-on-year [1][7] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a decline in profitability, with a net profit margin of 3.53% for 2024 [1][7] Business Segments - The lead-acid battery segment faced challenges due to late policy implementation and suppressed downstream demand, leading to a slight decline in shipments [1][16] - The lithium battery business experienced a significant revenue drop of 45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of -30.71% [2][23] - The company is actively pursuing innovation in energy storage and has developed new products for various applications, including home storage and communication [2][23] Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth in the lead-acid battery business in 2025, driven by favorable domestic policies and increased market demand [2][17] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 2.362 billion yuan, 2.859 billion yuan, and 3.175 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a recovery trend [3][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) [1][8] Core Views - Yutong Bus achieved a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38%, and a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan, up 127% year-on-year [4][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year [4] - The export sales volume reached 14,000 units in 2024, a 37.7% increase year-on-year, with export revenue of 15.2 billion yuan, up 46.1% year-on-year [7] - The company maintains a strong market position with a total sales volume of 40,000 large and medium-sized buses in 2024, supported by growing tourism and public transport demand [7] - The report highlights a decrease in various expense ratios due to scale effects and cost control, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 7.2 billion yuan, a 53% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 42.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.5% increase, with net profit expected to reach 4.7 billion yuan, a 14.9% increase [6][8] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 4.73 billion yuan and 5.35 billion yuan, respectively, and introduces a forecast of 6.01 billion yuan for 2027 [8] - The company’s gross margin for domestic and overseas bus products is reported at 19.4% and 28.5%, respectively, with a focus on R&D investment in light bus product development and high-end overseas products [7][8] Market Position and Strategy - Yutong Bus is positioned as a market leader with a solid export growth trajectory, benefiting from cost control and operational efficiency [8] - The company’s capital expenditure remains low, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining profitability while investing in growth areas [7][8] - The report emphasizes the confidence in achieving revenue growth targets for 2025, with an export target of 16,000 units, including 3,300 new energy buses [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that Haier Smart Home's revenue for Q4 2024 reached 83.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.88%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.59 billion yuan, up 3.96% year-on-year. For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 285.98 billion yuan, a 4.29% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 18.74 billion yuan, up 12.92% year-on-year. The domestic sales have shown a turning point due to policy stimulation and proactive adjustments in the Chinese market, while overseas performance remains stable. The company is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in 2025 as structural improvements and one-time impacts gradually dissipate [3][12][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Haier's revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, with significant growth in domestic sales driven by government policies and improved product structure. The company reported a notable increase in the shipment of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, with year-on-year growth of 10%, 8%, and 29% respectively. The premium brand Casarte saw a 30% increase in revenue in Q4 [13]. - For the full year 2024, Haier's overseas revenue grew by 5%, with the second half showing a 7% increase compared to the first half. The integration of Carrier Refrigeration positively impacted the results [13]. Profitability and Costs - The report highlights an improvement in real profitability, although there were one-time factors that affected results. In Q4 2024, the net profit margin decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin increased by 1.3 percentage points. The increase in expense ratios was attributed to accounting adjustments and the integration of new entities [14]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.65 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 8.997 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 48% [12]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates strong domestic sales and structural improvements for Haier in 2025, projecting net profits of 21.19 billion yuan and 23.96 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.0x and 10.6x. The dividend yield is expected to be around 4% [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power with a target price of 20.86 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 16.30 CNY [1][13]. Core Insights - Weichai Power has demonstrated a comprehensive improvement in the operational quality of its subsidiaries, leading to enhanced profitability. The company has managed to overcome pressures from a low-performing industry, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit [8][9]. - The heavy truck industry faced a slight decline in sales, but Weichai Power's diversified business strategy has allowed it to maintain stable growth across various segments, including engine sales and exports [8][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing market for natural gas heavy trucks, which have shown a significant increase in sales due to favorable policies and cost advantages [8][9]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Weichai Power reported a revenue of 2156.91 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 114.03 billion CNY, up 26.51% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company forecasts revenue growth to 2716.13 billion CNY in 2025, with a projected net profit of 129.98 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 13.98% [3][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 22.4%, with a net margin of 6.6%, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [8][10]. Business Segments Performance - The revenue from complete vehicles and key components is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 52.8% in 2025 [10]. - The intelligent logistics segment is projected to maintain steady growth at 5% annually, while agricultural equipment is expected to see a moderate increase in revenue [10]. - The company’s subsidiaries, including Shaanxi Heavy Truck, have shown impressive performance, with net profits increasing significantly [8][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Weichai Power is positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for natural gas engines and the expansion of data center operations, which are expected to drive future growth [8][9]. - The company is anticipated to achieve a net profit of 150.21 billion CNY by 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 10 [3][10].

冯毅浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长。浙江大学博士后，中央财经大学 博士，高级经济师，北京语言大学商学院硕导，浙江民革经济委员会委员。出版专著《股权结构与董事 会效率关系研究》,译著《灭火—美国金融危机及其教训》等。 2025年作为"十四五"规划的收官之年，我国经济发展面临复杂多变的国内外环境。在全球经济增速放 缓、外需不确定性增强的背景下，2025年《政府工作报告》明确将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全 方位扩大国内需求"列为首要任务，凸显了内需作为经济增长"稳定锚"的战略地位。这一决策不仅是应 对短期经济压力的主动选择，更是推动经济结构转型升级、构建新发展格局的长期考量。如何将内需潜 力转化为经济高质量发展的持续动力？浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长 冯毅对《金融时报》记者表示，应加强政策评估、创新金融工具，并引导社会预期，确保投资与消费的 有效协同。最终目标是形成投资拉动供给、消费反哺投资的良性循环，缩小区域经济差距，实现经济高 质量发展。 短期稳增长与长期调结构的辩证统一 《金融时报》记者：2025年《政府工作报告》首次将"全方位扩大内需"列为十大任务之 ...

公司事件 海尔智家发布2024 年报：2024Q4 实现营收830.10 亿元，同比+9.88%，实现归属净利润35.87 亿元，同 比+3.96%，扣非净利润31.20 亿元，同比+0.52%；2024A 实现营收2859.81 亿元，同比+4.29%，归属净 利润187.41 亿元，同比+12.92%，扣非净利润178.05 亿元，同比+12.52%；拟每10 股派现9.65 元（含 税），总额89.97亿元（含税），分红率48%。公司拟于自3 月27 日起12 个月内以10-20 亿元回购股份， 价格不超40 元/股，对应当前股价约0.4-0.7 亿股，占总股本0.4%-0.8%。 国内表现强劲，海外稳健增长 2024Q4 海尔收入同比+10%，2024Q2/Q3 分别同比+0.1%/+0.5%，受益国内以旧换新政策及开利制冷并 表，公司Q4 主营提速明显。内销方面，据产业在线，海尔Q4 冰箱/洗衣机/空调出货量分别同比 +10%/+8%/+29%，政策拉动出货，产品结构好转，卡萨帝Q4 收入同比+30%，表现抢眼，全年零售 +12%。2024A 海尔海外收入同比+5%，其中H1/H2 分别同比+4%/ ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The 2024 Chinese consumer electronics market size increased from 1,658.7 billion CNY in 2018 to 1,977.2 billion CNY[11] - In 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,878.95 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 3.5%[12] - In January and February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 837.31 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%[15] Group 2: Industry Performance - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange's consumer service sector decreased from 42.1X to 41.8X[23] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange's consumer service sector rose from 85.801 billion CNY to 89.013 billion CNY, with the median market capitalization increasing from 1.794 billion CNY to 1.840 billion CNY[26] - The median P/E ratio for the food, beverage, and agriculture sector increased by 4.77% to 34.4X[32] Group 3: Notable Companies and Trends - The top five companies with the highest stock price increases included Yizhi Moyu (+18.46%), Dayu Biological (+14.69%), and Qudongli (+12.27%)[22] - The North Exchange includes 26 companies in the consumer electronics industry, covering various segments such as batteries, glass materials, and integrated circuits[19] - Taipeng Intelligent plans to invest an additional 150 million THB in its Thai subsidiary for land, equipment, and working capital needs[39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese government is promoting consumption through policies such as the old-for-new appliance subsidy, which is expected to stimulate the home appliance industry and enhance consumer spending [1][7][19] - Suning.com is actively responding to the government's consumption promotion policies by implementing the old-for-new subsidy and enhancing user service capabilities, thereby injecting new vitality into the home appliance sector [1][7] - The "100-day plan" launched by Suning.com aims to activate market consumption through various promotional activities and partnerships with over 50 industry partners, focusing on a wide range of home appliances [12][19] Group 2 - The strategic focus for Suning.com in 2025 includes the "retail service provider strategy," which aims to transition from simply selling appliances to creating customized home scenarios [8] - Suning.com plans to open new stores, including Suning Max super experience stores and SuningPro flagship stores, to enhance its sales network and provide immersive shopping experiences [8][11] - The company is enhancing its service offerings, including integrated delivery and installation, and expanding its service categories to better meet customer needs [13] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Tianhe store is undergoing a significant upgrade to improve customer experience through diverse activities and digital operations [14] - Partnerships with major brands like Haier, Gree, and Midea are being strengthened to enhance the quality of life for consumers and promote the old-for-new policy [19] - Suning.com is committed to closely collaborating with partners to innovate consumption scenarios and optimize product supply, thereby better serving consumer needs for appliance upgrades [19]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 215.69 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.40 billion RMB, up 26.51% year-on-year, indicating strong financial performance despite challenging market conditions [2][4]. Revenue Analysis - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 53.74 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.64%. The engine assembly volume was 32,900 units, down 23.33% year-on-year, while natural gas engine assembly volume decreased by 42.25% year-on-year [2][3]. - The Q4 2024 net profit reached 3.00 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.46% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.21%. The gross margin was 24.15%, with net margin at 7.32%, indicating improved profitability [2][3]. Product Structure Optimization - The company is continuously optimizing its product structure, with stable growth in engine, complete vehicle, smart logistics, and agricultural equipment sectors. The agricultural equipment segment, particularly, saw a revenue increase of 18.38% year-on-year, reaching 17.39 billion RMB [3][4]. Policy Impact on Demand - The expansion of the old-for-new vehicle policy, effective March 18, 2025, is expected to boost domestic demand for heavy-duty trucks. The policy now includes natural gas heavy trucks and vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards, potentially leading to a demand increase of approximately 76,000 units [4][3]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic engine sector, with expectations for revenue growth to reach 231.11 billion RMB in 2025, 241.61 billion RMB in 2026, and 248.86 billion RMB in 2027. Net profit is projected to be 12.75 billion RMB in 2025, with an EPS of 1.46 RMB [4][7].