Core Viewpoint - Indian strategists believe that the Modi government can learn from China's successful strategies in dealing with the U.S. during the trade war, suggesting that India should adopt a more proactive approach in its negotiations with the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: China's Strategies - China effectively utilized its dominant position in the rare earth supply chain to gain leverage over the U.S. during the trade war, forcing the U.S. to reconsider its export control policies [3][6] - China capitalized on the divided interests within the U.S. business community, which opposed a complete decoupling from the Chinese market, leading to lobbying efforts that pressured the Trump administration [6][8] - China demonstrated a strong resolve to defend its core interests and maintained a patient and steady approach in negotiations, contrasting with the U.S. strategy of extreme pressure [6][8] - China's self-sufficiency strategy in response to U.S. export controls has significantly reduced the effectiveness of U.S. measures [6][8] - China's targeted countermeasures disrupted U.S. attempts to form a "tariff alliance" with its allies, undermining U.S. negotiating power [6][8] - China's diversified import and export strategy weakened the U.S. bargaining position, as both countries are interdependent in their trade relations [6][8] Group 2: Implications for India - Indian strategists argue that the Modi government must shift from a defensive to an offensive strategy in trade negotiations with the U.S., learning from China's proactive measures [10][12] - India needs to establish a comprehensive understanding of its trade relationship with the U.S. to effectively negotiate, leveraging its strengths in sectors like generic pharmaceuticals and digital services [10][12] - The Modi government should be willing to make strategic concessions while ensuring that each concession holds significant value, rather than allowing the U.S. to dictate terms [10][12] - There is concern that the Modi government lacks the decisive attitude seen in China's approach, which may hinder India's ability to negotiate effectively [12]

当地时间22日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文宣布，美国与日本达成了一项新的关税协议。根据协议，原本针对日本的25%关税已被降至15%。然而， 就像之前与其他国家签署的协议一样，这份协议背后同样伴随着相应的牺牲与代价。 其中，日本需在77万吨低关税大米进口配额中提高美国的份额，超出去年的34万吨。而且，日本对美国出口的钢铝产品并未按照此关税标准处理，依旧被单 独征收50%的关税。这项协议被特朗普视为"重大胜利"，他声称这一协议将为美国经济带来数十万个新就业岗位。然而，在日本国内，舆论并未对这项协议 表示热烈欢迎。日本首相石破茂此时正深陷国内政治危机之中，参议院选举失利，支持率骤降至30%，党内的逼宫压力也前所未有。 然而，这项协议中的15%税率仍然让美国国内的一些群体感到不满，尤其是美国的传统三大汽车制造商。美国对其他国家制造的汽车征收25%的关税，而对 日本的汽车只收取15%的税，这无疑给日本汽车制造商带来了竞争优势。美国汽车制造商的贸易组织认为，这项协议对美国汽车厂商和零部件供应商是不公 平的，因为美国对从墨西哥、加拿大等地生产的美国汽车征收25%的关税，而对日本车则仅收取15%。美国本土的车商最希望的是 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. is increasingly dependent on China despite initiating a tariff war, as China's industrial output has surpassed that of the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has conducted two rounds of trade talks with China and has ceased its tariff war, seeking cooperation on rare earth regulations [3] - The U.S. initiated the tariff war primarily to increase fiscal revenue, but this has led to rising prices that are being passed onto American consumers [5] Group 2 - The trade scale between China and the U.S. is significant, with China enjoying a large trade surplus from the U.S. market [6] - The U.S. Republican government’s actions are seen as detrimental to the interests of ordinary American citizens, as recent budget bills have favored the wealthy while burdening the general populace [6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for citizens to contribute to repaying national debt highlights the government's strategy of shifting financial burdens onto the public [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - For soybeans and related products, pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions. In the short - term, soybean and soybean meal markets are volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended before the tariff and weather issues are clear. For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a strategy of buying on dips. Be cautious about the situation of stronger oil and weaker meal in the fourth quarter [2][3][4]. - Rapeseed products are in a weak oscillation state, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited. Focus on economic and trade prospects and production area weather [6]. - Corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly. Keep an eye on the supply in the circulation link and the inventory of old grain [7]. - For eggs, near - month futures are weak, while far - month contracts for next year's first half are strong. Be cautious about the pressure of cold - stored eggs leaving the warehouse [9]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Soybeans - Domestic soybeans' main contract has a narrow - range oscillation this week, with prices remaining relatively strong. The domestic soybean spot is stable. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade negotiation next week and the short - term waterlogging risk in the northern production areas. The overall weather risk in the US soybean production areas from late July to early August is low [2]. 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Dalian soybean meal futures continue to oscillate downward. The third - round Sino - US trade talks may yield results next week. The US soybean production areas will have slightly more rainfall than normal in the next two weeks, and there will be high - temperature and then cooling processes in the central and southeastern regions. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, treat the soybean meal market as oscillatory [3]. 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil has a significant reduction in positions at a phased high, and the price drops. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade negotiation next week. The vegetable oil price is affected by the macro - situation, and the capital fluctuation is large at the phased high. Although the short - term supply - demand data of Malaysian palm oil is weak, the data of Indonesia is more optimistic, and the prices of international sunflower oil, palm kernel oil, and coconut oil are strong, which boosts palm oil. Maintain a strategy of buying soybean oil and palm oil on dips. Be cautious about the situation of stronger oil and weaker meal in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products are mainly in a weak oscillation state with a small fluctuation range. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed production area has improved, and the fund's net long position continues to decline. The domestic rapeseed demand is expected to slow down, but the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited due to the seasonal support of aquatic feed and the expected low import of rapeseed in the third quarter [6]. 3.5 Corn - Corn futures continue to oscillate weakly. The auction of imported corn by China Grain Reserves Corporation has a 28% transaction rate. The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.6 Live Pigs - The text about live pigs mainly mentions the situation of corn futures. There is no specific information about live pigs in the provided content [8]. 3.7 Eggs - Near - month egg futures are weak, while far - month contracts for next year's first half are strong due to the expected price reversal after capacity reduction. The spot price is stable across the country, and it is necessary to be cautious about the pressure of cold - stored eggs leaving the warehouse [9].

随着8月1日的最后期限日益临近，"懂王"特朗普就对等关税释放了新的信号。 当地时间7月23日，特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税。他还表示，"你 不可能与所有国家都谈判达成协议"。 这意味着，美国针对全球多数国家对等关税税率的下限有所提高，这无疑超出了市场的预期。 关税战步步紧逼 特朗普在社交媒体发文批评道，"我们的利率应该比现在低三个百分点，每年（作为一个国家）可以为 我们节省1万亿美元。美联储这个固执的家伙就是不明白。美联储委员会应该采取行动，但他们没有勇 气这样做！" 对此，BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格表示，也许是意识到解雇鲍威尔并不容易，所以特 朗普转向攻略美联储董事会的想法似乎更为现实，但这也很难实现利率目标。 近期，特朗普宣布，美国与多个国家已达成贸易协议。其中，美国把对日关税税率从此前威胁的25%降 至15%，以换取日本对美国开放部分产品的市场以及对美投资5500亿美元（美国将获得该笔投资90%的 利润）。 此外，美国与菲律宾、印尼等亚洲国家陆续达成贸易协议，并对后者均征收19%的关税。 目前，包括韩国、印度和欧盟成员国在内的其他国家目前 ...

此轮投票共有24名蓝营"立委"上榜。如果同意罢免的人数多 于不同意的人数，且同意票高于选区投票人的25%，罢免即成 立。决战时刻即将到来之际，台湾蓝、绿两大阵营均吹响了冲 锋号。 作者：王义伟 封图：本报资料库 7月26日（周六），备受瞩目的台湾大罢免将举行投票。根据台湾选务部门发布的信息，此轮投票 共有24名蓝营"立委"上榜。如果同意罢免的人数多于不同意的人数，且同意票高于选区投票人的 25%，罢免即成立。 决战时刻即将到来之际，台湾蓝、绿两大阵营均吹响了冲锋号。 蓝营方面，将战场比喻为"空战""陆战"两个部分。 "空战"由不受罢免影响的不分区"立委"以及党中央负责，其中不分区"立委"集中力量攻击民进党当 局在台南地区的救灾不力，国民党中央则通过网络、电视发布大量广告片，呼吁支持者务必出来投 票反对罢免。 《中国时报》7月23日发表题为"政治优先，关税冲击产业生存"的社论，同日发表题为"美国安大 棒《232条款》来势汹汹"的署名评论。 这两篇评论均提到，正在进行的美台关税谈判虽然给台湾很大的压力，但对台湾经济而言，更致命 的威胁来自美国《贸易扩展法》第232条。该条款授权美国总统可基于"国家安全风险"对进口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war has complicated Trump's position, particularly in response to China's unexpected hardline measures on rare earth exports, which have heightened pressure on the U.S. amid domestic shortages and military stock concerns [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Response to China's Rare Earth Measures - Trump attempted to pressure Ukraine into signing a mineral agreement to develop untapped rare earth resources, only to find that most resources were in Russian-controlled areas, complicating U.S. access [3]. - Due to rare earth shortages, India's automotive industry faced production halts, prompting high-level visits to China to negotiate rare earth exports, which were undermined by India's fraudulent commitments to use the materials [3][4]. - In response to the ineffective traditional channels, Trump adjusted strategies by pressuring global mineral supply chains and increasing investment in rare earth research and development [4][7]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Investments - The Democratic Republic of the Congo, a major cobalt producer, is seeking to reduce reliance on China and is negotiating with the U.S. for priority mining rights, which could serve as leverage against China's rare earth sanctions [5]. - The Pentagon plans to invest billions into domestic rare earth companies to boost development, although the effectiveness of these investments remains uncertain given the current economic climate [7]. - In June, China's rare earth exports to the U.S. surged to 353 tons, a 660% increase from May, indicating a potential easing of export controls and a strategic move to regain leverage in negotiations [7][8]. Group 3: Psychological and Strategic Implications - China's recent surge in rare earth exports reflects a strategic psychological game, as the U.S. struggles to secure rare earth supplies, highlighting the long-term dependency on Chinese resources [8]. - The U.S. faces a significant challenge in developing its own rare earth technologies, which could take at least a decade and involve substantial costs, while China's control over rare earths remains a critical factor in the trade dynamics [8].

美国方面刚释放特朗普访华的消息，马上就高调宣布逮捕中国公民，他们还想"虚空造牌"？然而，特朗普连续犯下战略错误，而且美国自身问题也在加剧， 他已经没有什么资格与中国继续对抗了。而中方就在这个时候出手，断掉美国的后路，具体情况如何？ 日前，多家媒体透露消息称，美国总统特朗普要带领豪华代表团访华。不少人认为，特朗普在与中方进行一系列对抗后，终于意识到"遏华政策"不会带来好 处，还被"稀土牌"卡脖子卡得"翻白眼"，因此选择缓和对华关系。但就在这个时候，特朗普政府突然以"加密货币洗钱、黑客攻击"等借口，逮捕6名中国公 民。特朗普这种"欲加之罪"的操作，似乎要复刻"孟晚舟事件"。而且就在美国对华动手前，特朗普还公开表示"与中国融洽相处很重要"。从这些情况看，美 国还是在进行他们惯用的"虚空造牌"手段，试图给中美谈判增加筹码。 不过从美国自身的情况看，特朗普并没有资格施压中国。在欧洲央行2025年央行论坛上，美联储主席鲍威尔坦言，若关税问题不存在，美国的降息政策早就 实施了。显然，鲍威尔就是暗示特朗普实施的"对等关税"，打乱了美联储的降息计划。而对"是否降息"的问题，鲍威尔没有直接回答，而是强调"美国经济 的情况相对较好 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report presents the price trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 23, 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, providing support for the price, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Expected to have small - scale sideways movements, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13][14]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to move sideways within a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina is expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Macro - economic sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is mainly influenced by macro - economic sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The commodity sentiment is positive, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][31][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of reaching the daily limit; the trend strength is 2. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are getting stronger, and the price is unlikely to fall, with a trend strength of 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - economic sentiment, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Driven by the macro - economic market, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Coking coal is restricted by supply - policy expectations, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][54][57]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Palm Oil**: Boosted by macro - economic factors, but caution should be exercised regarding sentiment reversal. - **Soybean Oil**: Follows the trend of the oilseed sector but is relatively weak among varieties. - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is strong, and the price is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Soybean No. 1**: Technically, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Corn**: Expected to move sideways. - **Sugar**: Expected to have narrow - range consolidation. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. - **Egg**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling hens decreases. - **Live Pig**: Macro - economic sentiment is strong, waiting for verification at the end of the month. - **Peanut**: Expected to move sideways [4]. Others - **Log**: Expected to have repeated sideways movements [2][58].

黄金方面： 欧盟对美国的反制关税进一步升级，昨日（7月22日）欧盟委员会宣布，若8月1日前无法与美达成协议，将对720亿欧元美国商品加征30%关税，涉及药品、 半导体等。 同时，印度通知WTO，将对美实施7.25亿美元报复性关税，重点针对汽车零部件及农产品，美印谈判陷入僵局。此外，越南则因转运规避的问题被加征了 40%附加税。 根据美联储观察，9月降息概率已激增至60%，提振了黄金多头势力。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师麦东认为，关税战全面引爆市场，叠加美联储九月降息概率走高，黄金价格突破3400美元，创下五周以来的新高。 技术面：日线上，昨日收大阳线。市场价格逼近3450美元。1小时级别，市场上升趋势出现乖离，但目前并未出现修复迹象，今日重点关注回测3410美元附 近的支撑。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 昨日美国财长贝森特在接受媒体采访时表示，下周一和周二在瑞典的斯德哥尔摩将与中方会面，举行第三轮谈判，讨论是否延长8月12日的最后期限。 今日早间美国公布至7月18日当周API原油库存减少57.7万桶，较前值（增加83.9万桶）有很大的改善。表明旺季的原油消费动力仍在释放。 近期需要重点关注中美的第三轮会谈可能取 ...