一揽子金融政策有效提振市场情绪。 5月7日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 本次发布会出台了降准降息、结构性货币政策工具降价扩容、险资入市加码、公募费率改革等众多增量政策。 公募基金普遍认为，会议释放积极政策信号，有效提振市场情绪。 发布会超预期 此次发布会上，央行发布三类共10项货币政策，延续货币政策适度宽松基调，强化逆周期调节和支持实体经济 发展。 金融监管总局发布8项增量政策，覆盖房地产、资本市场、小微民营企业、外贸及科技创新等多个领域。 证监会强调以下举措：巩固市场回稳向好势头，支持汇金公司发挥好"平准基金"作用；服务新质生产力发展， 出台深化科创板、创业板改革措施，抓紧发布新修订的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》和相关监管指引， 发展科技创新债券；推动中长期资金入市，抓紧落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 "这一次'一揽子金融政策'对市场的影响更偏细水长流。"招商基金指出，虽然市场对本次发布会第一反应的超 预期是央行"双降"，但随着关税冲击的显现，真正能让经济和市场行稳致远的仍在于货币金融政策和财政政策 的协同，预计随着"一揽子金融政策"在今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is introducing a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including a new relending tool for service consumption and elderly care [1][3]. Group 1: Service Consumption and Elderly Care Relending - The People's Bank of China has established a relending tool for service consumption and elderly care with a total quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at encouraging commercial banks to increase credit support for these sectors [1][3]. - This new policy tool expands and upgrades the previous inclusive elderly care relending policy, which had a quota of 40 billion yuan and was initially piloted before being rolled out nationwide [3]. Group 2: Impact of New Policy Tool - Experts believe this initiative will invigorate the service consumption and elderly care markets, enhancing domestic service consumption potential and supporting the development of the elderly care industry [3]. - The policy is expected to stimulate both the supply and demand sides of service consumption, ultimately releasing residents' consumption potential over a longer term [3]. Group 3: Insurance Company Investment Regulation - The Financial Regulatory Administration has announced a 10% reduction in the risk factor for insurance companies' solvency regulations regarding stock investments, encouraging them to increase their market participation [4][6]. - The previous adjustment in September 2023 saw the risk factor for investments in the CSI 300 index drop from 0.35 to 0.3, and for stocks listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board from 0.45 to 0.4 [6]. Group 4: Bond Market "Technology Board" - The bond market "Technology Board" will focus on financing support for key technology industries such as artificial intelligence, big data, integrated circuits, and biotechnology, aligning with national technology strategies [9]. - The design of the "Technology Board" includes targeted arrangements for the issuance process to meet the needs of issuers, aiming to enhance market investment enthusiasm [11]. - Financial institutions and asset management companies are encouraged to actively participate in investments related to technology innovation bonds, with plans to create indices linked to these bonds to broaden the investor base [11].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 8 日 今日焦点 | 中国宏观 | | | --- | --- | | 一揽子金融政策简评：三大金融部门联手稳预 | 宏观策略 | | 期、提信心 | | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | "五一"假期后，国务院新闻办公室宣布一揽子重磅金融政策，中国人民银 行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会负责人出席会议，并介绍具体措施。 本次金融政策支持举措的落地也是今年 4 月中央政治局会议精神的传达和落 实，会议提出适时降准降息、创设新的结构性货币政策工具，以及一系列稳 预期、提信心的具体举措均实现了快速的落实。 本次金融政策组合拳覆盖货币政策、资本市场、房地产市场以及实体经济等 多个领域。从政策内容看，既有短期纾困举措，也有长期制度安排；既有总 量政策，也有结构性工具，形成了全方位、多层次的政策支持体系。预计本 次政策组合将对稳定市场预期、提振市场信心、支持实体经济发展产生积极 影响。同时，中美经贸关系出现积极转变，双方重启谈判渠道，利好提振市 场风险情绪，为港股市场带来正面催化。 | 全球宏观 | | | --- | --- | | 美 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has introduced 10 measures to inject liquidity into the market, reduce costs for enterprises and residents, and provide targeted support for key sectors such as technology and consumption [2] - The financial regulatory authority has launched 8 incremental measures to support the real estate market and stabilize it, as well as to assist foreign trade enterprises affected by tariffs [3] - The securities regulatory commission has implemented a series of measures to stabilize the capital market, including enhancing market monitoring and reforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [4] Group 2 - The overall economic growth in the first quarter was 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend, but there are still challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and weak social expectations [1] - The comprehensive financial policies aim to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of economic support, focusing on a coordinated approach across various sectors including monetary policy, investment, and employment [4][5] - Guangdong province, as a major economic and financial hub, is encouraged to actively implement the central government's financial policies to stabilize market expectations and support economic development [5]

衍生无限未来 从情绪修复到政策组合拳再落地 -- "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会点评 点石成金 一、发布会解读:金融政策多箭齐发 国新办5月7日举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长、国家金融监督管理总局局长、中国证监会主 席介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。本次发布会干货内容满满，在4月的政治局会议 结合近几个月国际形势和国内经济运行的新特征针对性地给出了一些新的指导思想和后续任务部署之后, 本次国新办发布会拉开了政策落地的帷幕。 央行行长在发布会上发布了三类共10项具体宏观货币政策。央行全方面政策发力,强化逆周期调 节,央行此次带着全面的货币工具回归,425政治局会议的政策精神快速落实。实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。响应市场的期待，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点， 预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率调降为 0%将大力度助力消费金融。全面降低市场利率，下调政策利率0.1%，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率 从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25%，从总量和结构分别降低企 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index opened with gains exceeding 1%, while the ChiNext Index rose over 2% before narrowing gains by the close [1] - As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.8% to 3342.67 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.22% to 10104.13 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.51% to 1996.51 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 150.53 billion yuan, an increase of over 140 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Financial Policy Impact - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced to stabilize the market and expectations, including interest rate cuts and structural policy adjustments [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for coordinated efforts to implement these policies effectively, aiming to support economic recovery and high-quality development [7] - The new policies are expected to positively influence the banking sector, particularly in terms of asset quality and risk management [3][2] Nuclear Fusion Development - Significant advancements in nuclear fusion technology were reported, with key projects like the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and China's compact fusion experimental device (BEST) entering critical phases [4][5] - The BEST project aims to complete construction by 2027, with expectations for experimental demonstration of fusion power [4] - The global nuclear fusion research landscape is rapidly evolving, indicating potential growth in the industry [5] Agricultural Technology Innovation - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs outlined plans to enhance the agricultural technology innovation system, aiming for high-level self-sufficiency by 2035 [8] - The initiative emphasizes the integration of agricultural technology innovation with industry needs and the importance of talent development [8] Smartphone Market Growth - China's smartphone market saw a shipment volume of 68.7 million units in Q1 2025, marking a 9% year-on-year increase and continuing a growth trend for five consecutive quarters [10] - The growth is attributed to market recovery and government subsidy policies [10]

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive monetary policy package on May 7, 2025, including ten measures across three categories, aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [9][10][12] - The policy includes a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and a 10 basis point cut in policy rates [9][10] - The capital market responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering to levels close to early April, reflecting confidence in the macro policies [11][12] Group 2: Economic Performance and Outlook - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in both production and demand, with industrial production remaining robust [18][21] - The report anticipates continued resilience in the A-share market, supported by domestic policy implementation and a focus on internal demand and technological innovation [21][22] - The outlook for May suggests that while domestic policies will focus on high-quality development, external uncertainties may still impact economic performance [21][22] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - In the renewable energy sector, wind turbine prices have shown a steady upward trend, with average bidding prices increasing by 4.1% from December 2024 to March 2025 [27][28] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges due to significant fixed asset depreciation, impacting profitability, particularly for leading companies [27][28] - The hydrogen energy sector is expected to accelerate development, supported by government policies aimed at integrating hydrogen into transportation and energy systems [28][29] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - The report on Dongfang Yuhong indicates a 16.7% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, primarily due to reduced demand in the waterproofing industry linked to a slowdown in real estate [31] - Despite the revenue decline, the company has improved its operating cash flow, with a reduction in accounts receivable, indicating better cash management [31][32] - The forecast for Dongfang Yuhong's net profit for 2025-2027 remains stable, with expected profits of 14.1 billion yuan, 18.8 billion yuan, and 23.0 billion yuan respectively [32]

5月7日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，央行、金融监管总局、证监会三部门负责人同台发声，详细介 绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"相关举措，向市场释放积极信号：面对复杂多变的全球经济形 势，中国正以更积极、更精准的政策工具，为市场稳定与经济增长"保驾护航"。 记者注意到，政策公布后，A股市场迅速反应，三大指数集体上涨。贾婷婷预计，短期内股指将再度出 现趋势性行情。"分指数来看，上证50和沪深300两个指数中内需相关企业占比较大，即便中美贸易争端 持续，其受影响的程度也相对较小；中证500和中证1000两个指数中成长型企业占比较大，其中以出口 为主的消费电子类企业受中美贸易争端的影响较大。" 进一步细分板块，贾婷婷认为，降准降息直接利好金融机构，尤其是银行。降准降息有利于银行扩充资 金来源、增强放贷能力，进而提升盈利水平。另外，推动中长期资金入市、支持上市公司并购重组等政 策措施，将为券商带来更多的业务机会。金融板块表现值得期待。 展望A股表现，郁泓佳预计，二季度市场将震荡偏强运行。一方面，促内需政策措施的推进对冲了外需 下降压力；另一方面，中美贸易争端有所缓和与国内财政政策发力等因素支撑风险偏好。 从结构来看 ...

昨日国务院新闻办新闻发布会上提到的一系列政策措施，有望保障经济回升向好、股市震荡上行。 一揽子金融政策公布 国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 消费数据表现强劲 "五一"假期，消费和旅游市场再次迎来爆发式增长。据交通运输部统计，全社会跨区域人员流动量 146594万人次，日均29319万人次，较去年同期增长7.9%。据国家移民管理局统计，当期全国边检机关 共保障1089.6万人次中外人员出入境，日均217.9万人次，较去年同期增长28.7%，单日出入境通关最高 峰出现在5月3日，达229.7万人次。无论是国内游还是入境游，都显示了庞大的消费潜力。随着我国对 多国免签政策红利的持续释放，入境游也将成为消费市场的增长点。4月中共中央政治局会议提出"增强 消费对经济增长的拉动作用"，随着外部环境不确定性的加大，扩大内需成为长期战略之举，提振消费 将有力拉动经济回升。 综上所述，一揽子金融政策公布，中美贸易争端也有望缓和，均提振市场风险偏好，预计5月A股运行 重心震荡上移。（作者单位：银河期货） 金融监管总局局长李云泽表示，将推出 ...