Core Viewpoint - Global copper prices have reached a historical high, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark three-month copper rising to $11,294.5 per ton, driven primarily by supply shortages [1]. Group 1: Supply Factors - Major copper-producing countries, such as Chile, have underperformed in production this year, leading to a decline in domestic refined copper output and low levels of imports for intermediate products like scrap copper and anode copper [1]. - The overall copper inventory in both domestic and international exchanges is on a downward trend, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting low copper stock levels that continue to decrease [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut in December is influencing market sentiment, although the real estate sector is experiencing a downturn [2]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has emphasized strict control over smelting capacity, advocating for a 10% reduction in copper concentrate smelting capacity to balance supply and demand [2]. - Despite the fourth quarter showing lower-than-expected consumption and an increase in COMEX copper inventory, the LME inventory remains under pressure, indicating a complex market dynamic [2].

Core Viewpoint - Silver and copper are becoming the new focus in the commodity market due to tightening global supply and expectations of loose monetary policy, with silver prices reaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot silver prices have surpassed $57 per ounce for the first time in history, with a daily increase of approximately 1% [1] - Silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a new high of $57.81 per ounce [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The rapid price increase is primarily driven by deep concerns over supply shortages [1] - Traders are widely betting on an imminent interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve [1]

Core Insights - Silver and copper are becoming the new focus in the commodity market, with prices reaching historical highs due to supply tightness and expectations of monetary policy easing [1][4][8] - On December 1, 2023, spot silver prices surpassed $57 per ounce for the first time, while silver futures hit $57.81 per ounce, driven by concerns over supply shortages and bets on an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - China's silver inventory has dropped to a seven-year low, directly linked to record export volumes in October, exacerbating global supply tightness [4][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's silver exports exceeded 660 tons in October, marking a historical high, driven by cross-border tariff arbitrage activities that led to significant inventory depletion [9] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory fell to 715.875 tons as of November 24, 2023, the lowest level since July 2016, despite a slight recovery afterward [9] - Copper prices also surged, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) reaching $11,210.5 per ton, reflecting similar supply tightness and arbitrage activities [4][7] Monetary Policy Impact - The expectation of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is providing strong support for silver and the broader precious metals market, as traders anticipate a rate cut in December [9][10] - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market confidence in a low-interest-rate environment, benefiting non-yielding assets like silver [10] Industrial Metal Market Trends - The theme of supply tightness is also evident in the copper market, with predictions of a significant supply shortfall that could drive prices higher [11] - Analysts forecast that the copper supply gap may widen to 316,000 tons by next year, with average prices potentially rising to $9,900 per ton by 2026 [11] - Chilean copper producer Codelco is seeking to significantly increase its contract premiums, indicating rising costs and supply pressures in the market [12]

Core Viewpoint - Mercuria Energy Group's metal business head, Kostas Bintas, maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning that the influx of copper into the U.S. may deplete global inventories in other regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen traders increase copper shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs, aiming to capitalize on the significant premium of COMEX copper [1]. - The volatility in copper prices this year was triggered by President Trump's initial tariff threats, leading to a surge in copper imports and subsequent price spikes [1][2]. - Bintas indicates that the revival of profitable U.S. arbitrage trading is exacerbating supply shortages in other regions, suggesting that copper prices will soon rise further [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - Bintas notes that the LME copper price is nearing record highs and is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply [2]. - Despite a slowdown in U.S. copper imports following Trump's tariff decisions, Mercuria anticipates a rebound in imports in the coming months, potentially matching record levels from the second quarter of this year [2]. - The ongoing awareness of the potential for increased metal flows into the U.S. is leading to concerns about supply shortages in other markets, even amid weak demand [2][3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - Bintas acknowledges that his bullish forecast is driven by U.S. policy, highlighting how Trump's economic policies have disrupted traditional supply-demand dynamics in the metal market [3]. - Reports indicate that some traders are willing to pay premiums significantly above LME prices for Chilean copper, reflecting the heightened demand and pricing pressures [3].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market showed a mixed performance on November 27, with platinum leading the gains, rising over 6%, followed by silver and tin with increases of over 3% and 2% respectively [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1481.51 points, up 9.37 points or 0.64% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Index closed at 2048.35 points, up 12.96 points or 0.64% [1] Group 2 - The precious metals sector remained strong, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which supported gold prices and consequently boosted silver and platinum prices due to supply shortages [2][3] - Tin prices surged over 2% due to concerns over supply disruptions from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, with prices breaking the 300,000 yuan per ton mark [3] Group 3 - Agricultural products mostly rose, with eggs experiencing a significant rebound of over 2%, and various oilseed products increasing by over 1% [4] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.68%, with market sentiment weakening despite strong demand expectations and decreasing inventory [5] - Asphalt futures continued to trend weak, dropping by 1.41% due to declining demand as temperatures fell, leading to a subdued market [5]

Group 1 - Copper futures prices rose by 0.4% on Tuesday, approaching the $10,900 per ton mark, driven by supply concerns and market speculation [2] - Codelco has proposed a supply premium of $350 per ton above the London Metal Exchange price for the 2026 annual contract, significantly higher than the previously agreed $89 per ton [3] - The increase in copper prices this year, nearly 25%, is attributed to supply disruptions at key mines and expectations regarding the U.S. government's review of refined metal tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - The decline in the U.S. dollar, influenced by speculation of further policy easing by the Federal Reserve, has reduced the cost for overseas buyers, supporting metal prices [2] - Codelco's pricing strategy reflects concerns over supply chain distribution, particularly regarding shipments to the U.S. potentially affecting supply to other regions [3] - Other major metals, including aluminum and zinc, also saw price increases, with three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rising to $10,877.50 per ton [3]

Group 1: Nickel and Aluminum - In September 2025, global refined nickel production was 325,500 tons, with consumption at 308,400 tons, resulting in a surplus of 17,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined nickel production reached 2,876,900 tons, while consumption was 2,602,400 tons, leading to a surplus of 274,500 tons [1] - In September 2025, global primary aluminum production was 6,016,300 tons, with consumption at 6,208,400 tons, resulting in a shortage of 192,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 54,549,900 tons, while consumption was 55,835,300 tons, leading to a shortage of 1,285,400 tons [1] Group 2: Lead and Tin - In September 2025, global refined lead production was 1,137,900 tons, with consumption at 4,800 tons, resulting in a surplus of 1,133,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined lead production reached 10,064,100 tons, while consumption was 9,122,700 tons, leading to a surplus of 941,400 tons [1] - In September 2025, global refined tin production was 32,500 tons, with consumption at 27,600 tons, resulting in a surplus of 4,900 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined tin production totaled 260,200 tons, while consumption was 269,500 tons, leading to a shortage of 9,200 tons [1] Group 3: Copper and Zinc - In September 2025, global refined copper production was 2,333,300 tons, with consumption at 2,414,500 tons, resulting in a shortage of 81,300 tons [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined copper production reached 20,616,000 tons, while consumption was 20,491,400 tons, leading to a surplus of 124,600 tons [2] - In September 2025, global zinc production was 1,193,500 tons, with consumption at 1,229,200 tons, resulting in a shortage of 35,700 tons [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, global zinc production totaled 10,363,200 tons, while consumption was 10,736,900 tons, leading to a shortage of 373,700 tons [2]

Core Insights - The aluminum market in the U.S. has reached a historical high in premiums, significantly increasing the cost of acquiring aluminum, driven by tariffs and global supply constraints [1][3] - The Midwest U.S. aluminum premium hit $0.8810 per pound (equivalent to $1942 per ton), with the actual price for U.S. spot buyers rising to $4792 per ton, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 155% since June [1] Tariff Impact - The increase in aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% by the Trump administration in June has led to a current tariff burden of $1425 per ton, more than doubling from $560 at the beginning of the year [3] - The expectation of permanent tariffs has intensified following the cancellation of trade negotiations with Canada, which is the largest aluminum supplier to the U.S., accounting for over 70% of imports [3] Global Supply Constraints - A structural supply shortage in the global aluminum market is contributing to rising costs, with an anticipated supply gap of 1.8 million tons this year [3] - China's net exports of refined metals and semi-finished products have decreased significantly, alongside a decline in aluminum production outside of China, leading to a total reduction of 2 million tons in global aluminum supply [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is moderately strong in the medium term [1] - PTA: Supply pressure persists, high - level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads [1] - MEG: Supply pressure remains high, trend is weak [1] Core Views - PX: The unilateral trend is strong. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG. Despite the restart of some devices and the high operating rate, the cost support and demand factors make the unilateral strong pattern clear [5]. - PTA: With positive demand feedback and cost support, it should be regarded as unilaterally strong. Although the inventory accumulation in November narrows, the supply is still in excess after some device overhauls end, and the processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is short - term oscillating weakly. The supply pressure persists, and it is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads. Although the supply pressure eases slightly in the short term, it remains in the long term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - A 300,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip device in the southwest has been shut down for maintenance since early November, with a total of 600,000 tons of production shut down at the factory [3]. - The price increase in the previous trading day was mainly driven by increased stock market activity. The sudden increase in market activity may be due to the entry of external funds [3]. - The PX market is currently quite stable fundamentally, and there is no obvious weakness in the short term. The main support for PX comes from China's higher PTA production capacity, especially from new factories launched this year [3]. - Formosa Chemicals & Fiber Corp. restarted its 720,000 - ton/year PX production line in Mailiao on November 4 after completing the planned turnaround, and has been operating at about 70% capacity since then. A 350,000 - ton/year production line has been shut down since early April for planned turnaround [5]. Futures Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6780 | - 40 | - 0.59% | | PTA Main | 4664 | - 24 | - 0.51% | | MEG Main | 3942 | 18 | 0.46% | | PF Main | 6214 | - 30 | - 0.48% | | SC Main | 460.6 | 0.2 | 0.04% | | Calendar Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX1 - 5 | 0 | 14 | - 14 | | PTA1 - 5 | - 64 | - 62 | - 2 | | MEG1 - 5 | - 77 | - 80 | 3 | | PF12 - 1 | - 38 | - 34 | - 4 | | SC11 - 12 | 0.9 | 1 | - 0.1 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 825.67 | 826 | - 0.33 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4572 | 4540 | 32 | | MEG Spot | 4013 | 3978 | 35 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 581.75 | 575.75 | 6 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 63.61 | 63.66 | - 0.05 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 250.25 | 238.5 | 11.75 | | PTA Processing Fee | 120.65 | 141.93 | - 21.29 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 259.02 | 267.68 | - 8.66 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 54.06 | 99.6 | - 45.54 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: - 1 (weakly bearish) [5] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - Supply: Fushun Petrochemical and Formosa Plastics' devices restarted, and the domestic and Asian PX operating rates reached new highs. Yulong Petrochemical was sanctioned, resulting in weak MX prices. Although the short - process profit is strong, the operating rate has not actually recovered [5]. - Demand: Some PTA devices were shut down or had reduced loads, and the PTA load declined. The stock prices of polyester leaders rose sharply, but the actual probability of production reduction is low [5]. PTA - Supply: Some factories without supporting facilities reduced their loads, and the inventory accumulation in November narrowed. After the overhaul of some devices such as Xin凤鸣 ended, the supply was still in excess [6]. - Demand: The polyester load remained high (91.5% in November), and the rigid demand for PTA was acceptable [6]. MEG - Supply: The overall operating rate of MEG declined this week, with multiple devices shut down or reducing loads. However, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device is about to restart, and the long - term supply pressure remains due to concentrated imports [6]. - Demand: Downstream weaving orders weakened locally, and the operating rate declined. However, the polyester load remained high in the short term, providing some demand support [6]. Valuation and Strategy - PX: The PXN spread has risen to a high level, and producers can hedge at high prices. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG [5]. - PTA: The processing fee of the 01 contract has reached a new low of 219 Yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee is 173 Yuan/ton. The processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads [6].

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar is pressuring copper prices, leading to a high-level correction in domestic copper futures, with the main contract reported at 85,760 yuan/ton, down 1.52% [1] Market Overview - LME copper futures have declined due to the strong US dollar, which has dampened market sentiment. However, concerns over supply shortages are helping to limit the decline in copper prices [2] - Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [2] - As of November 3, domestic electrolytic copper inventories were at 206,000 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from October 27. Shanghai's inventory rose by 12,800 tons, Guangdong's by 200 tons, and Jiangsu's by 6,000 tons [2] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7%, indicating continued contraction for eight months, with weak demand and employment, while inflation is cooling. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for October was finalized at 50, with Germany and France continuing to contract, and weak new orders hampering recovery [2] Institutional Insights - According to a report from Industrial Futures, the strong dollar is pressuring copper prices, but the trend of liquidity easing remains unchanged. The easing of US-China trade tensions is seen as a positive macro environment, and ongoing supply concerns from major mining companies reducing annual production guidance are supporting copper prices. The strategy suggests that the recent correction in copper prices is limited, and previous long positions can be maintained [3] - Everbright Futures noted that the recent high-to-low fluctuations in copper prices indicate weak short-term bullish sentiment. November marks a transition between peak and off-peak seasons, and the continuous inventory accumulation in the domestic market raises concerns about demand at high copper prices. However, there is no panic sentiment in the market, suggesting that the correction in copper prices may be limited, presenting a buying opportunity on dips, with a focus on long positions in the first half of next year [3]