2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：长期驱动逻辑仍存，价格回落有限 | 4 | | 锌：国内持续去库 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：宏观扰动增加 | 11 | | 氧化铝：持续关注产能减产 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 11 | | 铂：突破前高开启补涨 | 13 | | 钯：ETF增持明显，有望冲击前高 | 13 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 黄金：如期降息 白银：高位调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 期货研究 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | ...

Core Points - The U.S. government, under President Trump, will allow Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to "approved customers" in China, with a 25% fee on these transactions [2][7] - This move is seen as a "limited easing" rather than a full lifting of restrictions, as it monetizes technology barriers and replaces export control logic with tariff logic [2][3][9] - Nvidia's spokesperson praised the decision, stating it supports U.S. high-paying jobs and manufacturing, while the company's stock rose nearly 2% after the announcement [2][7] Summary by Sections U.S. Government Actions - President Trump announced the approval for Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to China, with similar allowances expected for AMD, Intel, and other U.S. companies [2][7] - The U.S. Commerce Department is finalizing the details of this arrangement [2] Market Implications - The 25% fee on chip sales indicates a shift towards economic benefits for the U.S. government while still imposing restrictions on technology exports [2][3][9] - The H200 chip is considered a generation behind Nvidia's latest Blackwell series, which indicates that the U.S. aims to maintain a technological edge [3][8] Expert Opinions - Zhang Guobin, a semiconductor expert, described the situation as a "limited easing" for Chinese buyers, emphasizing that purchases must go through "whitelist" customers and are subject to U.S. audits [3][8] - The transaction appears to benefit the U.S. Treasury, but it overlooks China's rapid advancements in GPU and computing power technologies [9] Chinese Response - The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed a preference for cooperation and mutual benefit in U.S.-China relations [4][9]

美国司法部近日侦破一起高科技芯片走私大案，两名华裔男子因涉嫌违反出口管制法规，非法向中国转 运价值逾1.6亿美元（约12.4亿港元）的英伟达高端AI芯片而被捕。 案件详情 涉案的两名嫌犯分别是43岁居住在纽约的中国公民Fanyue Gong，以及58岁的加拿大籍中国公民 Benlin Yuan。他们被指控与一家香港物流公司及一家中国AI科技公司的员工共谋，规避美国出口管制政策。 政策背景与市场影响 值得注意的是，就在美国司法部公布此案的当天，美国总统特朗普宣布将允许英伟达向中国"获准客 户"出售H200芯片，但条件是美国政府将从销售额中抽取25%的分成。这一决定被视为英伟达的重大游说胜 利，可能帮助其重新夺回在中国这一关键市场中损失的数十亿美元业务。 英伟达CEO黄仁勋此前曾表示，由于美国出口管制，英伟达100%退出了中国市场，中国市场份额从 95%降到了0%。 执法力度持续加强 美国司法部检察官尼古拉斯·甘杰在声明中表示："'守门人行动'揭露了一个复杂的走私网络，该网络通过 将尖端AI芯片输送给那些试图利用它对抗美国利益的人，这威胁着美国的安全。这些芯片是人工智能优势的基 石，是现代军事应用的核心。" 该犯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has developed a new AI chip location verification technology that aims to combat the rising issue of high-end AI chip smuggling, enhancing global chip export control systems [1][3]. Group 1: Technology Development - The new location verification technology will be initially available as optional software on the latest Blackwell architecture chips, utilizing unique communication latency analysis to determine the chip's country of origin [1]. - This technology is a response to the increasing smuggling of banned Nvidia chips, with an estimated $1 billion worth of such chips entering the Chinese market through Southeast Asia in Q2 2025 [3]. - The technology captures latency differences during communication between the chip and Nvidia's official servers, allowing for precise geographical location tracking without impacting chip performance [4]. Group 2: Strategic Significance - The introduction of this technology is a strategic move for Nvidia to comply with U.S. government regulations, as the U.S. Department of Justice has initiated criminal proceedings against smuggling operations involving over $160 million worth of Nvidia chips [5]. - This innovation provides a technical framework for addressing high-tech product smuggling, potentially filling gaps in traditional regulatory oversight for cross-regional monitoring [5]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The rollout of this technology faces challenges, including scrutiny from Chinese cybersecurity regulators regarding potential "backdoors" and user data security concerns, which could impact its adoption [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tensions surrounding U.S. export controls on semiconductor technology to China, highlighting a recent case involving the attempted smuggling of NVIDIA AI chips valued at $160 million [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Export Controls - The U.S. Department of Justice has detained two individuals for allegedly attempting to smuggle NVIDIA AI chips to China, violating U.S. export control laws [1][3]. - The U.S. government is intensifying export restrictions on semiconductor technology, citing national security concerns [4]. Group 2: NVIDIA's Response - NVIDIA's spokesperson stated that the tightening export control system now scrutinizes even older products in the second-hand market, with millions of regulated GPUs currently in use globally [4]. - The company is committed to collaborating with the government and clients to prevent smuggling of second-hand products [4]. Group 3: Political Developments - Former President Trump indicated that NVIDIA's H200 chips could be sold to China under specific conditions, allowing sales to a limited number of approved customers, with the U.S. government taking a 25% cut from these transactions [5]. - It is noted that this licensing does not include NVIDIA's more advanced Blackwell architecture chips or subsequent Rubin chips [5].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is increasingly concerned about China's export controls on rare earth elements, prompting efforts to diversify supply sources and reduce dependency on China [1] Group 1: Dependency on China - Japan's reliance on China for rare earth imports has decreased from approximately 90% to 60% [1] - Despite the reduction, Japan remains highly dependent on China for critical rare earth elements used in electric vehicle motors, with elements like Dysprosium (Dy) and Terbium (Tb) being nearly 100% sourced from China [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - If China implements export controls for three months, Japan's economic loss is estimated at about 660 billion yen, equating to a 0.11% decline in nominal and real GDP [1] - Should the restrictions last for one year, the economic loss could escalate to approximately 2.6 trillion yen, resulting in a GDP decline of 0.43% [1] Group 3: Affected Industries - The automotive industry, particularly electric and hybrid vehicles, relies heavily on rare earth magnets, with past shortages leading to production halts [1] - The electronics sector, including smartphones and semiconductor manufacturing, heavily utilizes rare earths, especially in fluorescent and magnetic materials, where alternatives are limited [1] - Wind power generation equipment also shows high dependency on rare earth magnets, facing challenges in efficiency and cost with alternative technologies [1] - Medical devices, such as MRI machines, require strong magnets that are irreplaceable with current technologies [1] - The aerospace and defense sectors extensively use rare earth alloys and magnets, with limited substitution options available [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is increasingly concerned about its reliance on Chinese rare earth exports and is taking measures to diversify supply sources and develop alternative materials [1][2] Group 1: Japan's Dependence on Rare Earths - Japan's dependence on Chinese rare earth imports has decreased from approximately 90% to around 60% [1] - Despite the reduction, Japan remains highly dependent on critical rare earth elements like Dysprosium (Dy) and Terbium (Tb), which are essential for electric vehicle drive motors [1] Group 2: Economic Impact of Potential Export Controls - If China implements export controls, five key sectors in Japan—automotive, electronics, wind power, medical devices, and aerospace—will be significantly affected [2] - The automotive industry, particularly electric and hybrid vehicles, relies heavily on rare earth magnets, and past shortages have led to production halts [2] - In the electronics sector, rare earths are crucial for smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing, and hard drives, with China dominating the refining process [2] - Wind power equipment and medical devices, such as MRI machines, also have high dependencies on rare earths, with limited alternatives available [2] - The aerospace sector uses rare earth alloys and magnets extensively, with minimal room for substitution [2] Group 3: Estimated Economic Losses - If Chinese rare earth export restrictions last for three months, Japan's economic loss is estimated at approximately 660 billion yen, equating to a 0.11% decline in nominal and real GDP [2] - Should the restrictions persist for one year, the economic loss could escalate to about 2.6 trillion yen, resulting in a GDP decline of 0.43% [2]

Core Insights - Nvidia has received approval to export H200 AI chips to China, with the U.S. government imposing a 25% fee on sales, an increase from the previously set 15% [2][3] - The H200 chip is significantly more powerful than the H20 model, which Nvidia had previously been limited to exporting [3] - Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the potential revenue impact, estimating an annual increase of $25 to $30 billion and an EPS impact of $0.60 to $0.70 [4] Revenue Impact - Nvidia reported export control impacts of approximately $4.6 billion in Q1 and $4 billion in Q2, with China historically accounting for 20-25% of its data center revenue [3] - Wells Fargo maintains an overweight rating on Nvidia, with a price target of $265, significantly above the current trading price of $184 [5] Market Reactions - Analysts from William Blair believe the new chip approvals could positively influence Nvidia's fiscal 2027 revenue expectations, but they are awaiting evidence of actual orders from China before adjusting forecasts [8] - Concerns remain regarding the approval process for Chinese customers and the management of the 25% revenue fee to the U.S. government [6] Competitive Landscape - AMD and Intel are also expected to benefit from the new export policies, with AMD already holding a license for its MI308X chip [7] - AMD's revenue guidance was previously cut by about $700 million for Q2 and $1.5 billion for the year due to export restrictions [7]

英伟达的CEO黄仁勋通过游说特朗普总统和国会高层，获得了出口解禁（3日、美国华盛顿、reuters） 特朗普表示，H200的出口许可将是"有条件"的。但没有透露具体条件。新一代主力产品Blackwell及其 下一代产品将继续禁止对华出口。进入今年以来，黄仁勋一直对美国白宫和联邦国会的高层人士展开游 说，要求允许向中国出口…… 美国总统特朗普12月8日宣布，将允许美国英伟达（NVIDIA）向中国出口人工智能（AI）半导 体"H200"。自拜登政府以来，美国政府一直不允许H200对华出口，此次批准意味着对华出口管制将放 宽。 通过放宽管制，特朗普政府在彰显重视在全球市场普及美国产品这一姿态的同时，似乎也有敦促中国履 行10月中美首脑会谈达成的协议的意图。 主力半导体Blackwell仍被除外 特朗普12月8日下午在自己的社交媒体上公布了这一消息。特朗普称，向中国国家主席习近平转达了解 除H200出口禁令的消息，并高兴地表示"习主席给予了积极回应！"。 H200虽是英伟达AI半导体的尖端产品，但属于比目前的主力产品"Blackwell"系列早一代的产品。 特朗普表示，为了兼顾安全保障，H200的出口许可将是"有条件 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly highlighting investment opportunities in the rare earth sector due to recent export license approvals for leading companies [1][44]. Core Insights - The Chinese government is implementing export controls on rare earth materials, but compliant applications for civilian use are being approved promptly, which is expected to streamline export processes and boost demand recovery in the rare earth permanent magnet industry [1][44]. - The U.S. private sector experienced a significant job loss in November, which may influence Federal Reserve policies, with a high probability of interest rate cuts anticipated [2][17]. - Production at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is projected to be lower than 2024 levels due to operational challenges, with expected output between 380,000 to 420,000 tons in 2026 [3][18]. - Indian companies Adani and Hindalco are exploring investment opportunities in Peru's copper sector, driven by increasing demand, as Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer [4][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 5.35%, significantly surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.98 percentage points [10][11]. Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $11,665 per ton, up 4.38% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices increased to ¥92,780 per ton, up 6.12% [21]. - LME copper inventory rose by 1.96% to 162,550 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22% to 88,905 tons [23]. Strategic Metals - The average price of praseodymium oxide increased by 2.88% to ¥597,000 per ton, reflecting a tightening supply in the antimony market, which has seen a price rebound after a prolonged decline [43][44]. Key Company Tracking - Recommendations include companies with integrated operations in the aluminum sector, such as China Hongqiao, and copper-focused firms like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [53][54].