Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. unexpectedly declined for the first time since April, reinforcing the case for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [2][5]. Group 1: PPI Data - In August, the PPI fell by 0.1% month-over-month, with July's data revised downwards. Year-over-year, the PPI increased by 2.6% [2]. - Excluding food and energy, the prices of goods rose by 0.3%, while service costs decreased by 0.2% [6][7]. - The more stable PPI measure, excluding food, energy, and trade services, increased by 0.3%, indicating a 0.4% rise in the costs of intermediate demand processing products [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the PPI data release, U.S. stock index futures and Treasury prices rose, with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][8]. - The two-year Treasury yield fell, and the dollar weakened, as the market priced in three cumulative rate cuts by the end of 2025 [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The decline in PPI suggests that companies are cautious about raising prices amid economic uncertainty, despite higher costs from tariffs [5]. - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is anticipated to reveal how much of the tariff burden has been passed on to American households [6].

LIVE S&P 500 Builds on Record High After PPI Inflation Report Last Updated: Updated 29 min ago Stock Futures Pop After Weaker-Than-Expected PPI Inflation Data By Karishma Vanjani Stocks are readying to open higher after this morning's inflation report confirmed that price growth remains contained, giving the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates. The Wall Street Journal Cryptocurrencies Data Magazine Markets Stock Picks Barron's Live Roundtable Barron's Stock Screen Personal Finance Streetwise Adv ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of September 2, 2025, is 1.04, a decrease of 0.04 from August 26 [1][3] - The coastal coal freight index fell by 0.11 to 0.87, and the 30-city commodity housing sales index dropped by 0.05 to 0.48, contributing to the decline in YHEI [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued contraction for five consecutive months [23] - Large and small enterprises' PMIs increased by 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points to 50.8% and 46.6%, respectively, while the medium-sized enterprises' PMI decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.9% [23] - The consumer goods sector's PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49.2%, while high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs rose to 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, indicating expansion [23] Demand and Supply Indicators - New orders and new export orders indices are at 49.5% and 47.2%, respectively, both in contraction territory [2][23] - The production index increased from 50.5% to 50.8%, indicating a rise in production activity [2][23] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose to 53.3%, while the ex-factory price index increased to 49.1% [2][23] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [24] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, marking its first contraction since February, with the new orders index dropping to 40.6% [24] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, indicating renewed expansion [24] Monetary Policy - The central bank's net fund injection was 92.9 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase operation of 201.73 billion yuan and 19.244 billion yuan maturing [5][6] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 2 basis points to 1.36%, while the seven-day repo rate fell by 7 basis points to 1.46% [10][11] Real Estate Market - New home transaction volumes in first and third-tier cities increased by 22.84% and 6.65%, respectively, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 11.03% [37] - Second-hand home transaction volumes decreased across all city tiers, with first, second, and third-tier cities down by 5.09%, 9.65%, and 20.21%, respectively [40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, corporate earnings have not significantly improved. After repeated digestion of previous policy benefits, market bullish sentiment has cooled. There is a risk of adjustment in stock indices due to profit - taking pressure. Gold has accelerated its short - term rise driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [42]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Gold may face a deep - adjustment risk due to the fading of uncertainties from US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the repeated digestion of the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. Industrial production expansion accelerated, demand improved marginally, but external demand faced significant downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remained weak [3][4]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - **Corporate Earnings**: Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure. They cannot transfer production costs to end - consumers, resulting in a long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits. Some industries are still in the active de - stocking phase, with finished - product inventories continuing to decline [18]. - **Funding and Liquidity**: The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 1.0684 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan [22]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data - **Inflation and Consumption**: The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 2.8%), rising for 3 consecutive months and reaching a new high since February. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. US tariff policies are affecting prices, suppressing consumer confidence and consumption expenditure [28]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold futures' warehouse receipts and inventory have been rising, indicating an increase in physical gold delivery demand and a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - **Stock Indices**: Although the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in July, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, with insufficient demand being the main contradiction. The previous sharp rise in stock index futures was driven by multiple factors such as policies, funds, and sentiment. However, the inflection point of corporate earnings growth has not arrived. As policy benefits are repeatedly digested, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and short - term adjustments are expected [41]. - **Gold**: Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, suggesting that a September interest rate cut is highly likely. The controversy over Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has intensified market concerns about central bank independence, driving up the gold price to a new record high. Attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that interest rates serve as a better indicator of the labor market compared to mere employment growth data [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：利率最终将低于当前水平。 来源：滚动播报 ...

今日必读🏉利率市场押注9月降息几成定局⚽中国军界两位高层缺席阅兵式🎳特朗普暗示将加码对俄制裁获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter.️ https://t.co/2PS2kNuQGW ...

"虽然价格稳定仍是首要任务，劳动力市场放缓的程度足以支撑在今年晚些时候实施一次适度的政策宽 松。"博斯蒂克表示，并补充称如果数据显著恶化，他不排除提前采取行动。 他在接受采访时被问及9月是否可能降息时表示，"我会保持开放态度"，并将密切关注薪资增长、非农 就业人数等指标。"如果数据表明劳动力市场正在快速且明显走弱，这将是非常重要的信息，会影响我 对政策的判断。" 博斯蒂克同时提醒，关税对通胀的冲击可能具有持久性。"我相信关税对消费者价格的影响不会很快消 退，而且其全部效应将在未来数月才会完全显现。"他强调，美联储不能自满，必须防止通胀预期失 控，避免新一轮通胀爆发。 在美联储9月政策会议临近之际，多位官员就通胀、关税及利率前景发表看法，透露出政策内部的分歧 与不确定性。 智通财经APP获悉，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里周四表示，美国总统特朗普推动的关税措施正在推 高商品通胀，令美联储实现2%通胀目标的道路更加复杂。他在明尼苏达州女性经济圆桌会议上表示， 尽管劳动力市场正显示出降温迹象，整体经济仍有望实现"软着陆"，但当前通胀水平依然"过高"。 卡什卡里指出，住房等领域的价格增长正在放缓，但并不意味着房价或租金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. Treasury yields are experiencing fluctuations due to concerns over trade policies, budget deficits, and overall economic conditions, leading to a decline in market sentiment [1][4][6] - As of September 3, 2023, the 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 3.649%, the 10-year yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 4.275%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 1 basis point to 4.963% [1] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries narrowed by 3 basis points to 62 basis points, indicating changing investor sentiment towards long-term debt [1][4] Group 2 - Concerns over increasing government debt and political pressures on central banks are causing investors to withdraw from government bonds, with gold prices reaching a record high of $3,550 [4][6] - The yield on 30-year French government bonds has surged to 5%, the highest level since 2009, raising sustainability concerns regarding France's debt [4][6] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue $650 billion in short-term debt this week, reflecting the need for significant funding despite the current market conditions [8]