Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continued to fluctuate widely this week due to the ongoing major macro - events. The gold price was affected by factors such as the easing of tariff tensions, the US government shutdown, and the strong US dollar. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were internal differences on future policies. Looking ahead, the precious metals market may continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to use an interval - band trading strategy. For the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract, the recommended interval is 880 - 950 yuan/gram; for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract, it is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The precious metals market fluctuated widely. The London gold price was affected by Sino - US trade talks, Fed interest rate cuts, and other factors. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and there were differences within the Fed on future policies [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The precious metals market may continue to fluctuate widely. The tariff policy, US government shutdown, and central bank gold - buying expectations support the gold price, but the strong US dollar suppresses it. It is recommended to use an interval - band trading strategy [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of October 31, 2025, COMEX silver rose 0.55% to $48.69 per ounce, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract rose 0.96%. COMEX gold fell 2.50% to $4022 per ounce, and the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract fell 1.72% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net positions of foreign - exchange gold and silver ETFs showed a net outflow [11]. - **COMEX Positions**: Due to the US government shutdown, COMEX position data was suspended. As of September 23, 2025, COMEX gold and silver positions increased [20]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai gold and silver weakened this week [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of New York COMEX and SHFE silver decreased significantly. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.84%, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 2.85%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 3.1%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 27.7% [30]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of September 2025, China's silver imports increased by 19.17% month - on - month, while silver ore imports decreased by 13.19% month - on - month. Due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise [36][41]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: The silver market was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver increased by 4% year - on - year, and the total demand decreased by 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was narrowing [47][51]. - **Gold Industry**: As of October 30, 2025, the gold recycling price and gold jewelry prices continued to fall [56]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In Q3 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly. Central banks net - bought about 220 tons of gold in Q3, with a cumulative purchase of 634 tons in the first nine months of the year [58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index fluctuated higher, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield also rose. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility continued to decline, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio rebounded. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was basically flat compared with last week. In October 2025, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves [63][67][70][74].

Core Insights - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever recorded [1] - The surge in gold prices, which increased over 50% this year, was driven by geopolitical risks and market dynamics, although a recent price correction occurred due to easing tensions between the US and China [1][3] - Investment demand for gold has significantly increased, accounting for 55% of total net demand in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global gold investment demand rose to 537 tons in Q3, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar, alongside a fear of missing out among investors [6] - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total of 634 tons for the first three quarters of the year [7][8] - The total global gold supply reached 1,313 tons in Q3, a 3% increase year-on-year, with mine production up 2% to 977 tons and recycled gold supply up 6% to 344 tons [8][9] Regional Insights - In China, retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in Q3, a 7% decline year-on-year, but the monetary value surged to 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% increase, marking the highest Q3 value on record [9][12] - Chinese gold ETF holdings saw a net outflow of 3.8 billion yuan in Q3, with total holdings decreasing by 5.8 tons, although the asset management total increased by 11% to 168.8 billion yuan [12][14] - Despite high gold prices, consumer spending on gold jewelry in China reached 66.5 billion yuan in Q3, a 14% increase year-on-year, indicating a willingness to purchase despite price pressures [12][13] Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that gold jewelry consumption may see seasonal improvements in Q4, although this could be tempered by high gold prices and the timing of the Chinese New Year [14] - Investment demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical risks and potential monetary policy changes, including interest rate cuts in China [15][17] - The recent regulatory changes allowing insurance funds to invest in gold are expected to provide long-term support for gold investment demand in China [16]

第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金PPLI官网 昨日（10月29日），美联储主席鲍威尔发表了重要讲话，其主要基调可以概括为 "鹰派持稳" ，即维持高利率的立场坚定，但也未释放出进一步加速紧缩的 信号。 鲍威尔主要讲话要点： 通胀仍需警惕： 鲍威尔重申，尽管通胀已从峰值大幅回落，但最新数据表明其下降进程陷入"停滞"，通胀水平仍然过高，回到2%目标的"最后一英里"充满 挑战。 降息需耐心等待： 他明确表示，美联储在降息问题上需要保持耐心，必须对通胀持续向2%目标回落有更大信心后，才会考虑下调利率。这打破了市场对近 期内降息的幻想。 利多黄金的一面（提供支撑）： 经济不确定性下的避险需求： 鲍威尔承认通胀的顽固性，并强调数据依赖，这本身也暗示了美国经济前景存在不确定性。市场担心"更高更久"的利率可能 最终拖累经济，甚至引发衰退。在这种担忧下，黄金作为传统避险资产，其买盘依然存在。 "不会急于加息"的暗示： 尽管立场鹰派，但鲍威尔并未强烈暗示会立即重启加息。市场将此解读为"最鹰派的时期可能已经过去"。只要不加息，黄金面临 的最大压力就有所缓解。 综合结论： 强调数据依赖性： 未来的 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：不认为存在落后于形势的风险。何时再次加息尚无定论。#行情 日元再次走低，美元兑日元再升70点至153.5。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):日本央行周四如期维持利率在0.5%不变，但有两名委员建议加息25基点至0.75%（理由是物价风险偏向上行）。日元短线走低，美元对日元拉升50点。日本央行维持2025至2027财年核心CPI预期中值不变，将2025财年实际GDP增速预期中值从0.6%小幅上调至0.7%。 ...

日本央行周四如期维持利率在0.5%不变，但有两名委员建议加息25基点至0.75%（理由是物价风险偏向上行）。日元短线走低，美元对日元拉升50点。日本央行维持2025至2027财年核心CPI预期中值不变，将2025财年实际GDP增速预期中值从0.6%小幅上调至0.7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating that interest rates will remain high due to persistent inflation, leading to a sell-off in gold as investors seek to mitigate risks [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, the US dollar strengthened while gold and silver prices declined, reflecting investor concerns about the economic outlook [1]. - The gold market is currently experiencing volatility, with a potential downward adjustment if it fails to maintain upward momentum after a brief halt in declines [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Short positions are recommended at the 3980-90 range, with a focus on entering trades near the 4030 level if the market shows strength [4]. - A rebound is anticipated if gold prices do not break below 3886, suggesting a potential for short-term long positions [4]. Group 3: Price Levels and Trends - Key resistance level for gold is noted at 4030, with a significant drop expected if this level is not breached [1]. - Current trading ranges indicate that if gold stabilizes above 3980, it may test higher levels around 4007-10, with a possibility of reaching 4050-70 [1].

Core Insights - Gold is currently experiencing a strong rally, with prices surging nearly 50% in the past year, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, low interest rates, and inflation concerns [2][9] - The S&P 500 has shown a 12-month total return of around 16%, which is solid compared to its historical average of 10% [2][4] - Gold serves as a hedge or insurance, while stocks are viewed as growth engines, with stocks typically recovering more quickly from downturns compared to gold's prolonged periods of inactivity [1][7] Historical Context - Historical data indicates that gold often experiences long periods of decline after reaching peaks, such as the US$ 850/oz in 1980 and US$ 1,900/oz in 2011, while the S&P 500 has long-term average annual returns of around 10% [4][5] - In instances of stock market corrections (10-20%), recovery tends to occur more rapidly than gold's extended dormancy periods [5][6] Investment Strategy - Investors acquiring gold should view it as insurance, accepting the possibility of flat returns during improving conditions, while stock investments are aimed at growth, with a historical tendency for quicker recovery [6][7] - A balanced investment strategy may involve allocating resources to both gold for protection and stocks for growth [6] Future Considerations - The performance of gold and stocks in the coming years will be influenced by inflation, interest rates, global growth, and investor sentiment [7][9] - If real interest rates remain low or negative, gold may continue to rise, but a robust global economic recovery could lead to stagnation in gold prices as investor focus shifts back to growth assets [9]

申万宏源固收研究 【申万固收|利率】央行将恢复国债买卖，做多重启还是利多出尽？ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1 - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is in its final stages, with five candidates shortlisted, including current Fed governors and external candidates from the White House and Wall Street [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is leading the interview process and plans to submit a list of "excellent candidates" to President Trump after Thanksgiving [1][2] - President Trump has criticized current Chair Powell for not significantly lowering interest rates, which he believes has hindered economic growth [2] Group 2 - The upcoming Fed Chair nomination may coincide with a 14-year term vacancy for a Fed governor in early 2026, making the selection particularly significant [2] - Market expectations indicate a potential 25 basis point rate cut announcement in the upcoming Fed meeting, highlighting the importance of the new Chair's stance on interest rates and policy independence under political pressure [2] - Some regional Fed presidents may voice dissent regarding rate cuts, with a notable division among Fed decision-makers on future monetary policy [3] Group 3 - Concerns about inflation are resurfacing, with officials noting that inflation rates have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for four consecutive years, potentially raising long-term inflation expectations [4] - The new Philadelphia Fed President emphasized the importance of stabilizing long-term inflation expectations as a key measure of monetary policy credibility [4]

Core Insights - The annual average price of gold is projected to exceed $4,000 per ounce for the first time in 2026, with an average forecast of $4,275, significantly up from $3,400 predicted in July [1][3] - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, reaching a record high of $4,381.58, marking the best performance since 1979 [3][14] - Analysts have also raised silver price forecasts, expecting an average of $38.45 per ounce in 2025 and $50 in 2026, up from previous estimates [14] Gold Market Dynamics - The current economic climate, characterized by inflation concerns, high interest rates, and a weaker US dollar, has driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [9][12] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are expected to make gold more attractive, as lower Treasury yields enhance its appeal [11] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a key portfolio asset rather than a speculative investment, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [12] Silver Market Insights - Silver has experienced a 65% increase this year, reaching an all-time high of $54.47, driven by strong demand in solar technology, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [15] - Analysts predict that silver will continue to face structural supply deficits, supporting its price growth into 2026 [15][16] - Silver is seen as a more affordable alternative to gold, maintaining its demand among investors [16]