黄金价格（XAU/USD）在周五亚洲早盘时段保持在5405美元附近。该贵金属在接近5600美元时创下历史新高，但由 于前一交易日的获利了结而回落。交易者将密切关注总统唐纳德·特朗普对新美联储（Fed）主席的提名进展。美国生 产者物价指数（PPI）报告将在周五晚些时候公布。 彭博社周四晚间报道，特朗普将在周五早上宣布他选择替代杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席的人选。特朗普表示，他的 提名人将会"做得很好"，并重申他期望中央银行的新领导人会降低利率。 一位更加鸽派的主席将增加对今年进一步降息的押注，这可能会推高黄金价格。较低的利率可能会减少持有黄金的机 会成本，从而支持这一无收益的贵金属。 地缘政治的不确定性可能会推动传统的避险资产如黄金。特朗普在周三敦促伊朗"回到谈判桌"，达成"公平合理的协 议"，否则下一次美国的攻击将会更为严重。伊朗则以威胁对美国、以色列及其支持者进行反击作出回应。 另一方面，交易者可能会在短期内进行一些获利了结，因为在过去12个月中，黄金价格已上涨近100%。高岭期货的 金属交易主管大卫·梅格尔表示："在贵金属创下近期历史新高后，我们看到了一次剧烈的抛售。" 黄金价格在周五亚洲早盘时段交投于5 ...

今日周四(1月29日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于26.464一线上方，今日开盘于25.278元/克，截至发稿， 纸白银暂报26.839元/克，上涨6.06%，最高触及26.881元/克，最低下探24.698元/克，目前来看，纸白银 盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 Timiraos指出，鲍威尔的这一决定，是他面对花费数月时间试图向美联储施压的政府时，手中握有的最 后一张、也是唯一一张底牌。本月早些时候送达央行的大陪审团传票，只会让他更有理由不亮出这张 牌。 司法部的调查名义上是关于鲍威尔去年夏天就美联储25亿美元总部翻修工程所作的国会证词。但鲍威尔 直言，这实际上是关于利率，是特朗普一再要求加快降息的政府施压行动的一部分。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银延续昨日走势，反弹上涨，目前价格涨超5%，一小时布林带向上开口，显现处于多 头趋势之中且上涨空间充足，一小时MACD正直方图中柱型开始拉长，显示上涨动能增强，同时DMI显 示处于上涨趋势之中，纸白银走势下方关注23.50-24.50支撑，上方关注26.50-27.00阻力。 自去年夏天以来，美联储主席鲍威尔周四已是第四次拒绝透露，在5月15日主席 ...

The dollar snapped higher and Wall Street wobbled on Wednesday, but not before the S&P 500 broke above 7,000 points for the first time, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold and flagged rising inflation risks. ...

格隆汇1月28日｜在加拿大央行将于公布利率决定前，受美元普遍走软的提振，加元兑美元升至15个月 高点。加拿大央行预计将把利率维持在2.25%不变。德国商业银行的Michael Pfister在一份报告中说，鉴 于"通胀略有上升，实体经济缓慢改善"，该央行今年不太可能再降息。不过，他说，对美国关税的担忧 依然存在，这可能会限制加元兑美元的涨幅。伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示，美元兑加元跌至1.3548 加元的低点。 ...

Group 1 - The Malaysian Ringgit has reached its highest level in over seven years, driven by optimism related to the artificial intelligence supply chain and national growth prospects [1] - On Monday, the Ringgit appreciated by 0.8% against the US dollar, reaching 3.9750 Ringgit per dollar, the strongest level since June 2018 [1] - Gama Asset Management SA forecasts that the Ringgit will strengthen to 3.9 Ringgit per dollar this quarter [1] Group 2 - The robust domestic demand and potentially strong inbound tourism are expected to sustain Malaysia's growth momentum this year [1] - The rapid expansion of the data center industry is creating new opportunities and attracting investments [1] - Leonard Kwan from UOB Group highlights the Ringgit as the most favorable currency in Asian emerging markets due to its abundant energy resources and strong tourism performance [3] Group 3 - The Ringgit has outperformed other currencies in Asia since January, exceeding analysts' forecasts for the first quarter [3] - Factors such as technology exports, foreign direct investment, and the Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to maintain interest rates are expected to help the Ringgit outperform its Southeast Asian peers this year [3] - Foreign investors have returned to local assets, with global funds net buying $256 million in local stocks this month, contributing to the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index reaching a seven-year high [3] Group 4 - Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to maintain interest rates until 2027, alongside expectations of continued easing from the Federal Reserve, which may narrow the interest rate advantage of the US over Malaysia [3] - Jeff Ng from Sumitomo Mitsui emphasizes that artificial intelligence and export demand are driving the strength of the Ringgit, with a neutral to hawkish stance from the central bank potentially providing support [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, energy and chemicals, and forest products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, the stock index futures show differentiation, and the rapid repair period of treasury bond futures may have ended; in the agricultural products sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [19][25][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index differentiation continues. On Thursday, the stock index was stable with a slight increase. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes remained strong, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes were under pressure. The trading strategies include short - term oscillation in IF/IH, upward oscillation in IM/IC, and corresponding arbitrage and option strategies [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The rapid repair period may have ended. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. With the tax period affecting the market funds and the equity market's shock - strength, the upward momentum of bond futures has temporarily slowed down. It is recommended to try to go long on the TL contract at low prices [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply disturbances increase, and the market as a whole rises. The demand has slightly improved, and the South American weather affects the US soybean market. However, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal has short - term support but long - term pressure [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates at the bottom, and Zhengzhou sugar has strong support below. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, but the northern hemisphere's sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, but the price decline space is limited [30]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The international oil and fat prices have fallen. The domestic soybean oil is gradually destocking, and the rapeseed supply is expected to increase. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and destock, but the destocking speed is slow. The overall oil and fat market will continue to oscillate [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port's spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at a high level. The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic corn has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has generally risen. However, the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure still exists [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 peanut contract is weak, but the market still oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival stocking approaches, the egg price has risen. The spot price increase supports the futures market, but the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [46][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the apple price is firm. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts supports the price, and if the later demand is normal, the price of the 05 contract is likely to rise [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The short - term driving force of cotton is limited, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong trend [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand has weakened marginally, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The construction steel sales have declined, the steel inventory has increased, and the cost has support. The steel price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The driving force is not obvious, and the market oscillates. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, the domestic coal mine production has recovered, and the downstream winter storage is limited. The market is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations are volatile, and the ore price is weak. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and the domestic demand is expected to be low. The ore price is expected to be weak [65]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the adjustment, the bottom support is strong. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have stable demand and cost support, and it is recommended to hold long positions and add more at low prices [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical events have widened the trust gap, and gold and silver have reached new highs. The market risk - aversion sentiment has fluctuated, and the PCE data and asset allocation adjustment have promoted the rise of gold and silver. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [71][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US dollar index has weakened, and precious metals have strongly made up for the increase. The geopolitical factors and the change of the US dollar asset confidence have affected the market. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Copper**: The bullish momentum has weakened, and the copper price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical risk has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the long - term supply of ore is tight. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Alumina**: The market mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply - demand is surplus, and the cost is expected to decline. It is recommended to protect the profit of the previous short positions [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price has stabilized in oscillation. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the short - term downstream replenishment sentiment exists. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be strong in the medium term [85][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The risk preference has boosted the aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight, which supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The domestic zinc concentrate shortage has been alleviated, the refined zinc production has increased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory change [92][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support below. The supply may improve, the consumption has weakened, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to try to go long lightly at low prices near the support level [97][98]. - **Nickel**: The optimistic sentiment still exists, and the nickel price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical situation is tense, and the Indonesian production target has been adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand is tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices [103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction news has fermented, but the coking coal has dragged down the market. In the short term, the market is expected to be strong in oscillation. The demand is weak in the medium term, but if the production reduction of large factories is implemented, the price is expected to be strong [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the market expectation has weakened. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the market is pessimistic about the future. It is recommended to participate cautiously [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by "export rush" and pre - festival stocking. It is recommended to go long after the callback [109]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the macro sentiment. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the macro sentiment in the short term [112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate continues to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical dynamics. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export tax rebate may delay the decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [115][116][117]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and the EIA inventory has increased. The increase in inventory and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have pressured the oil price, but the supply threat and the cold wave support the price. The oil price is expected to oscillate widely [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The low inventory and low production support the spot price. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 03 contract and the BU4 - 6 positive spread [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost is oscillating, and the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel is abundant. The fuel price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the FU59 positive spread [126][128]. - **LPG**: Propane still has support. The international LPG is tight, and the domestic supply and demand are relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate widely [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: There are still concerns about European supply, and there is a short squeeze in the US HH market. The European market is affected by cold weather, low inventory, and geopolitical risks, and the US market is affected by cold weather and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell call options [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention has increased. The PX supply is expected to be high, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital. The market is expected to oscillate widely [136][137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene has decreased due to unexpected shutdown of plants. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the styrene supply has decreased. The styrene price is expected to be strong in the short term [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi maintenance may reduce imports, and the market oscillates widely. The supply may decrease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand has weakened. The production load is expected to decrease, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to oscillate widely [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance has accelerated in mid - January. The production capacity is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. The market is expected to oscillate widely [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The chemical sector has become stronger, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The domestic PE and PP production capacities have increased, and the market is supported by the chemical sector. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP [153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price has weakened. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak [159][160]. - **PVC**: The market has risen in resonance. The supply is expected to decrease, the cost is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in oscillation [161][162]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price has fallen. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price is expected to decline at a slower pace and oscillate [163][165]. - **Glass**: The futures price has fallen. The production is stable, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline at a slower pace and be weak in oscillation [166][167]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate has declined, the domestic supply is loose, and the demand has support. It is recommended to go short in the short term and pay attention to the 59 positive spread [169]. - **Urea**: The market is oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has limited impact, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in oscillation [172]. Forest Products - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely. The supply exceeds demand, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate more [174][175][176]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions and switch the spread strategy [177][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short - sell in a small amount [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise. The tire production line start - up rate has increased, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market. It is recommended to wait and see and buy call options [183][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise, and multiple contracts have reached the daily limit. The inventory has changed, and the tire production line start - up rate has increased. It is recommended to hold the spread and buy call options [187][188][189].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a recent increase in consumer prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising for four consecutive months, reaching its highest level since March 2023 [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing decline, with month-on-month increases for five consecutive months, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [2][3] Group 2: Pet Industry Insights - The pet industry is projected to grow by 4.1% in market size by 2025, driven by an increase in pet ownership and spending per pet [4][5] - The number of dogs and cats is expected to rise by 1.8%, with average annual spending on dogs increasing by 1.5% and on cats by 3.2% [4] - The trend towards younger pet ownership is identified as a key driver for high-quality growth in the industry [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - There is a notable shift towards scientific feeding practices among pet owners, with 55.3% expressing a willingness to learn about proper nutrition [6] - The preference for wet food is increasing, with significant growth in various categories such as cat treats and dog food, indicating a trend towards premium pet products [6][7] - The demand for specialized pet food for different life stages and sizes is rising, particularly for senior and small breed dogs, reflecting a more tailored approach to pet care [7] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Li Ning - Li Ning has entered a new product and marketing cycle following its signing with the Olympic Committee, which is expected to enhance brand strength [8][9] - The demand for sports footwear remains resilient, with a growing trend towards diversification and specialization in the market [8] - The company is projected to see a rebound in net profit from 27.42 billion to 33.02 billion from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding increase in earnings growth rates [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent price increase is structural and unlikely to have a trend - setting impact on interest rates. The central bank may keep monetary policy stable or make minor adjustments, and the bond market may recover after a short - term shock [5][16][35] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content 1. Current Price Situation - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points year - on - year to 0.8%, rising for 4 consecutive months to the highest level since March 2023. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and its month - on - month figure was at or above zero for 5 consecutive months, reaching the highest level since September 2024 [1][8] 2. Structural Characteristics of Price Increase - **CPI**: Gold price increases have continuously pushed up CPI. The year - on - year growth rate of other supplies and services in CPI rose from 3% - 5% in 2024 to 5% - 17% in 2025, contributing 0.5 percentage points to the year - on - year CPI growth rate in December 2025. In the past two months, vegetable prices have also had a short - term impact, with the contribution to CPI year - on - year growth rising from about - 0.3% to 0.3% and 0.4% in November and December [2][9] - **PPI**: It is mainly driven by the non - ferrous metals industry. From August to December 2025, the cumulative month - on - month increases in PPI of non - ferrous metal mining and dressing and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries were 14.9% and 8.7% respectively [2][9] 3. Impact of Price Increase on Interest Rates - **Lack of Impact on Corporate Profit and Financing Demand**: Although PPI has improved, corporate profits have not improved. In November 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises decreased by about 13% year - on - year, so it is difficult to drive up corporate financing demand [3][17] - **Limited Monetary Policy Response**: The central bank's monetary policy has limited ability to regulate input - driven and industry - concentrated price increases. Referring to the situation of pork prices in 2019, the central bank may not respond significantly [4][17] 4. Historical Cases of Limited Impact of Structural Price Increase on Interest Rates - **2019 Pork Price Case**: In the second half of 2019, pork prices significantly pushed up CPI, but the central bank did not tighten monetary policy. Instead, it kept interest rates stable and even cut the MLF rate by 5bps in November 2019 [4][17] - **2021 Coal Price Case**: In 2021, coal prices soared due to supply - side factors, and PPI rose significantly. The central bank regarded it as a short - term cost shock, maintained normal monetary policy, and did not significantly raise the interest rate center [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The UK's inflation rate rose to 3.4% in December, exceeding the expected 3.3%, prompting the Bank of England to consider interest rate decisions in the upcoming month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Growth - Despite sluggish economic growth, the UK's inflation rate remains the highest among the G7 countries [1] - The rise in utility costs and other government-regulated fees from the previous year will no longer factor into annual comparisons, leading to a significant slowdown in price increases expected in the coming months [1] Group 2: Bank of England's Outlook - Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that the inflation rate could approach the central bank's target of 2% by April or May [1] - Financial markets anticipate that the Bank of England may lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, with each reduction expected to be 25 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the economic fundamentals remain weak, but a rebound in inflation is a notable positive aspect [2] Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - Economic fundamentals are described as continuing to show weakness, indicating potential challenges for growth [2] - The overall economic environment is characterized by sluggish performance, which may impact investment decisions [2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - A significant rebound in inflation is noted, which could influence monetary policy and market expectations [2] - The article suggests that rising inflation may present both opportunities and challenges for investors [2]