Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in the real estate sector, including the announcement of the personal housing sales value-added tax policy and changes in purchase and loan restrictions in Beijing, are expected to enhance market activity, although the fundamental trends in the real estate market remain weak [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance released a notice on the personal sales housing value-added tax policy on December 30, 2025 [1]. - On December 24, Beijing adjusted its purchase and loan policies, which are anticipated to boost market activity [1]. - Continuous observation of supply-side changes is essential to gauge the impact of these policies on the market [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The real estate market fundamentals are still weak, but there are small, positive developments on the policy front [1]. - The company suggests maintaining a patient approach towards the real estate development sector in the short to medium term, focusing on core assets in the commercial real estate sector that offer absolute return opportunities [1]. - Companies with strong long-term competitiveness and gradually reasonable valuations should be prioritized for investment [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the pace and intensity of policy changes exceed expectations, a more positive stance on the real estate development sector may be warranted [1]. - Attention should be given to companies with high certainty of profit realization and those showing good operational trends at the front end [1].

Policy Highlights - The focus of recent policies is on "grabbing the start" for 2026, with five key areas of emphasis, including early policy implementation and support for new industries[2] - The 2026 "Two New" policy was released on December 30, 2025, aiming for a smoother subsidy rhythm, with total funding expected to be lower than the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025[2][8] - The Ministry of Finance announced a new tax policy for personal housing sales, reducing the VAT rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, and exempting properties sold after two years in major cities[8][33] Economic Measures - The State Council emphasized the importance of the national water network construction as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with significant investment and multi-department collaboration required[3][15] - The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a focus on maintaining low financing costs and enhancing policy effectiveness, with potential adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates in Q1 2026[5][24] Local Initiatives - Local governments are proactively implementing measures to support service consumption and financial technology, with provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong taking the lead in economic recovery efforts[9][36] - Beijing has relaxed housing purchase restrictions, which may prompt other major cities to follow suit, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[11][36] Industry Policies - The China Securities Regulatory Commission finalized the public fund sales fee reform, which is expected to benefit investors by over 50 billion yuan annually[7][25] - The "old for new" policy for 2026 will see a shift from broad subsidies to more targeted support, with total funding likely to be around 250 billion yuan, down from 300 billion yuan in 2025[2][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Summary of the Conference Call on Beijing Real Estate Policy and 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate industry in Beijing, highlighting recent policy changes and their implications for the broader market [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Changes in Beijing**: Beijing has relaxed home purchase restrictions and reduced social security duration requirements, setting a precedent for other cities and indicating a shift in national support for both demand and supply sides of the real estate market [1][2]. - **Future Policy Direction**: The focus of future reforms will be on foundational systems like the housing provident fund, with an emphasis on collaborative execution of policies to address the ongoing decline in the real estate market, which has seen four consecutive years of downturn [1][4]. - **2026 Policy Strategy**: The anticipated approach for 2026 is a "small steps, quick runs" strategy, with gradual adjustments rather than a comprehensive overhaul of policies. Both supply and demand will receive support, but changes will be incremental [1][4]. - **Local Financial Constraints**: The feasibility of local financial subsidies for home purchases is limited by local fiscal capacity, making widespread implementation challenging. Central government involvement is unlikely, with a preference for indirect support measures like lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1][5][6]. - **Current Market Status**: The real estate market is currently stagnant, with no expectation of sudden changes. The government aims to integrate real estate into the overall economic development framework, focusing on high-quality growth and enhancing domestic demand [1][6]. - **Price Stability**: Stabilizing second-hand home prices is a critical task, as a projected average price decline of about 10% is expected nationwide. The market is anticipated to remain at an L-shaped bottom, particularly affecting first-tier cities and leading to significant price drops in third and fourth-tier cities [3][10][17]. - **Impact of Policy Measures**: Measures such as purchasing existing homes for affordable housing and promoting trade-in policies have been implemented, but their effectiveness has been limited and requires ongoing monitoring [3][9]. - **Market Predictions**: The average national home price is projected to decline by approximately 10%, with first-tier cities facing greater downward pressure due to higher initial price levels [10][16]. - **Role of Central Government**: The central government is expected to avoid direct financial subsidies and instead utilize indirect methods to stimulate the market, reflecting a cautious approach to direct involvement in real estate funding [6][22]. - **Long-term Market Outlook**: The real estate market is expected to remain in a state of L-shaped bottoming, with no significant recovery anticipated until after 2026. The focus will shift towards optimizing existing stock rather than expanding new developments [17][22]. Other Important Considerations - **Policy Implementation Challenges**: The implementation of storage policies at the local level faces difficulties due to restrictions on increasing local hidden debts and the need for coordination among various departments [21]. - **Potential for Future Taxation**: Preparations for a property tax are underway, but its introduction is unlikely before 2026, as it is contingent on market stabilization [24]. - **Market Dynamics**: The current focus is on price stabilization rather than volume, with the expectation that price adjustments will directly influence market expectations and buyer behavior [8][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Beijing real estate market and its future trajectory, emphasizing the importance of policy adjustments and market stabilization efforts.

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) suggests integrating incremental and stock policies to enhance monetary policy regulation, using various tools to maintain liquidity and align social financing scale with economic growth [1] - The PBOC plans to conduct a 400 billion MLF operation on December 25, 2025, marking the 10th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries (2025 Edition)," effective from February 1, 2026, promoting foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern service industries [1] Group 2 - Beijing has adjusted its housing policy, easing restrictions for non-Beijing residents and families with multiple children, allowing them to purchase additional properties [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation and 14 other departments have launched a special action plan for the quality and safety of industrial products sold online from 2025 to 2027 [1] - In November, China's total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with the tertiary industry showing the highest growth at 10.3% [1] Group 3 - From January to November, China's total outward direct investment reached 1,131.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with investments in 15,165 overseas enterprises [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that 98 new companies were listed in the domestic market from January to November, raising a total of 102.73 billion RMB [1] - Changan Automobile issued a statement addressing false information regarding asset loss, emphasizing its commitment to legal action against defamation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference indicates a moderate approach to economic stabilization rather than strong stimulus, focusing on maintaining growth levels and alleviating deflationary pressures without significant policy shifts [3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit, including both explicit and implicit components, is set to remain at levels similar to 2025, with an emphasis on front-loading expenditures, particularly in infrastructure such as urban renewal and green transformation projects [4]. - There is potential for an additional fiscal space equivalent to 0.5% of GDP if conditions in real estate, prices, and employment improve in the first half of the year [5]. Monetary Policy - The actual space for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is limited, with a focus on structural tools and quasi-fiscal measures, suggesting a possible reduction of 10-20 basis points throughout the year [5]. Real Estate Policy - Support measures for real estate, such as subsidizing mortgage rates, may not materialize until after the national two sessions, with details expected in the second quarter of 2026 [5]. - A broad and sustained subsidy for mortgage rates could stabilize market expectations and break the negative feedback loop of falling housing prices and credit contraction [6][9]. Consumption Policy - The continuation of the national subsidy for replacing old with new products is expected, with adjustments in scale and coverage, but there is uncertainty about significant support for service sector consumption [6]. - Direct subsidies for consumer spending, particularly in the service sector, may take longer to implement, potentially not appearing until the second half of the year [6]. Export Outlook - Despite concerns about export reliance, China's share of global exports is projected to increase from 15% to 16-17% over the next five years, with growth rates expected to outpace global trade growth [7]. - The shift towards "de-China-ization" is seen as a trade chain extension rather than a reduction in China's market share, with Chinese enterprises maintaining a competitive edge in high-value sectors [7][8]. Talent and Innovation - China produces approximately 11 million university graduates annually, with a significant portion in engineering and technology fields, contributing to its competitive advantage in key sectors [8]. - The global supply chain is evolving towards multi-polarity but remains reliant on Chinese enterprises, indicating a robust position for China in the global market [8]. Economic Transition - There is a call for a shift towards consumption-driven growth in 2026, emphasizing social security improvements and support for farmers and migrant workers to enhance consumer capacity [8]. - A broader focus on supporting service sector consumption through subsidies and vouchers is recommended to stimulate economic activity [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding the Chinese stock market, expecting a high single-digit growth in the index for the year 2026 [3][12]. Core Insights - The nominal GDP growth expectation for China is around 4%, slightly below market consensus, with a focus on moderate fiscal policies emphasizing infrastructure investment [1][2]. - The report highlights China's first-mover advantage in emerging industries such as technology, batteries, electric vehicles, robotics, and photovoltaics, projecting an increase in global export market share from 15% to 16%-17% [1][5]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to implement two additional rate cuts in early 2026, contributing to a relatively loose liquidity environment that favors risk assets [1][9]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The overall macroeconomic policy for China in 2026 is characterized as moderately supportive rather than aggressively stimulative, aiming to stabilize current growth levels and alleviate deflationary pressures [2][3]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to be moderate but may be front-loaded in the first half of the year, focusing on infrastructure investments such as urban renewal and AI computing centers [3][15]. - Monetary policy will emphasize structural tools with limited room for interest rate cuts, projected to be between 10-20 basis points for the year [3][15]. Real Estate and Consumption Policies - Specific measures in the real estate sector include potential mortgage rate subsidies expected to be detailed after the 2025 Two Sessions, aimed at stabilizing market expectations [4][17]. - Consumption policies will continue to support trade-in programs and explore service sector consumption subsidies, with implementation anticipated in the second half of 2026 [4][17]. Industry Competition and Export Outlook - The competitive landscape for China's industries remains strong, particularly in high-growth sectors like electric vehicles and robotics, with an expected increase in export market share [5][20]. - Despite global trade protectionism, China's export market share is projected to rise, supported by a large pool of engineering graduates and a strong manufacturing base [5][20]. Economic Challenges and Future Vision - Current economic conditions show a slight recovery in market confidence, but challenges remain in addressing consumer spending and social welfare issues [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the need for gradual policy adjustments and feedback collection from market participants to ensure effective implementation of proposed economic measures [7][25].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货螺纹钢年报 建筑需求疲软拖累，关注政策扰动供应 20251215 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：国内坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策。外部环境方面，海外贸易摩擦加剧对出口带来压力，但国内产业优势韧性尚可，出口向中高 端转化。全球降息预期虽受到各方面因素约束，美联储降息扩表仍有利于全球流动性。 u 供应：市场预计2026年粗钢产量进一步压减1.5%–2%，政策导向"支持先进、倒逼落后" ，电炉钢、氢冶金、 高端特钢项目享受差别化减量置换支持。行业反内卷将以减碳提质、绿色转型等形式进行约束 ...

财达期货｜铜周报 铜价涨势明显 短期警惕回调 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约整体呈冲高回落趋势，周中维持高位震荡， 受宏观面影响美元指数周尾持续下行，因此周五日盘铜价又再度创 94570 的 历史新高，周五可能受美股科技股下跌影响市场情绪转弱，叠加铜价历史高 位资金获利了结，周五夜盘铜价出现高位回落，跌幅 2.13%，收盘价在 91550 元/吨。较前一周-1.3%。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： F3084967 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 供需方面，海外铜矿供应链脆弱性仍较高，且中国有色金属工业协会指 出，2025 年再生铜产量 80 万吨，占比 25%，部分缓解原生铜压力但难以扭 转紧缺预期。国内产量，据我的钢铁，12 月国内电解铜预计产量 116.46 万 吨，环比小幅增加 2.11%。终端方面房地产股票周三有所反弹，主要是由于 市场关于中国政府计划提供 4000 亿元人民币抵押贷款补贴的传闻，市场多认 为这类政策方向确实是有可能的，并可能对地产销售端有温和提振，但不足 以从本质扭转当前房地产的颓势。因此预计地产数据预计维持一段时期的底 部震荡走势。库存方面，全球库存累库趋势维 ...

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