今天是2025年12月29日，市场在年末的交易时段，呈现出经典的结构性分化特征。指数层面看似"沪强 深弱"，但赚钱效应实则高度集中在几条明确的主线之上。 如果将视野放宽，我们会发现今日市场的领涨主线并非一枝独秀。除了有色金属代表的"资源重估"线 索，以科创50和恒生科技指数为代表的"硬科技成长"线同样表现强势。港股市场中，卫星导航、充电 桩、燃料电池等概念集体爆发。这一切清晰地指向了当前资金形成的两大共识：一是拥抱全球流动性拐 点下的资产价格重估（资源品），二是押注产业政策与技术创新驱动的未来增长（硬科技）。 截至午间收盘，上证指数上涨0.31%，报3975.92点；深证成指微涨0.03%。科创50指数表现最为亮眼， 大涨0.91%，彰显出硬科技板块的强劲势头。创业板指则逆势微跌0.32%。成交方面，两市半天合计成 交近1.4万亿元，虽较前一日小幅缩量，但整体交投氛围依然活跃。港股方面，恒生科技指数大涨 1.55%，与A股科技板块形成强势共振。 对于后市，多家机构观点认为跨年行情正在展开。在市场趋势延续、政策预期积极、海外流动性环境改 善的共同作用下，春季躁动行情或许已经提前启动。对于投资者而言，与其每日焦虑 ...

投资者可关注相关产品：A500ETF基金（512050）(场外联接：A类：022430；C类：022431；Y类： 022979）、A500增强ETF基金（512370）。 每日经济新闻 A500ETF基金（512050）助力投资者一键布局A股核心资产，把握A股估值抬升红利。该ETF具备费率 低（综合费率仅0.2%）、流动性好（日均成交额超50亿元）、规模大（规模超390亿元）等核心优势。 其跟踪中证A500指数，采取行业均衡配置与龙头优选双策略，中证全部35个细分行业全覆盖，融合价 值与成长属性，相比沪深300，超配AI产业链、医药生物、电力设备新能源、国防军工等新质生产力行 业，具备天然的哑铃投资属性。 12月29日，A 股三大指数开盘后涨跌互现，沪指强势向上，冲击9连阳。截至10:23，A500ETF基金 （512050）微跌0.08%。盘面上，持仓股迈为股份、光威复材涨超10%，海格通信、金风科技强势涨 停。 12月26日，央行发布《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》，提出金融系统将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策， 防范化解重点领域风险。报告还提出，着力健全有利于"长钱长投"的制度政策环境，显著提高各类中长 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 核心结论 分析师 【煤炭】兖矿能源（600188.SH）首次覆盖报告：煤炭国企，布局广泛 预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 94.48 亿、120.19 亿、141.71 亿， EPS 分别为 0.94、1.20、1.41 元，同比增长-39.61%、27.21%、17.91%。 考虑 DDM 估值方法，给予公司目标价 16.27 元/股。首次覆盖，给予"买入" 评级。 【电力设备】爱旭股份（600732.SH）跟踪点评：行业竞争导致业绩承压， 银价上涨有望推动贱金属化 投资建议：由于电池片价格仍在底部区间，且将持续一段时间，因此我们对 于 25 年盈利预测仍给予亏损，但随着产业政策加速与 BC 组件产业化进步， 预计爱旭股份业绩有望在 26 年迎来反转，我们预计公司 25-27 年实现归母 净利润-5.82/11.53/22.66 亿元，同比+89.1%/298.1%/96.6%，EPS 分别为 -0.27/0.54/1.07 元，但考虑到公司 ABC 组件有望带领公司走出困境，维持 "买入"评级 【美容护理】稳健医疗（300888. ...

如大势调整，则上述方向可能出现较为容易的布局机会；如大势持续强势，则静待各大指数成功突破前 高后，在震荡中布局。 方向上，以上述景气方向(算力、光伏、储能、电网设备、有色石化)，再结合低位的港股科技、自由现 金流等资产为主，组合更具韧性。 相关ETF 上周(12月22日~12月26日)，离岸人民币破7，A股市场也完成中期调整，日K"八连阳"收涨，接近11月 中旬高点。行业主题方面，有色金属、电力设备等行业涨幅居前。12月24日下午~12月26日，港股因圣 诞休市。 接下来，跨年红包行情能否持续是投资者关注的重点之一。多数机构投资者情绪乐观，认为今年春季躁 动行情有望提前。中信建投（601066）证券回顾以往牛市八连阳案例，发现：牛市中期的八连阳占比较 多，指数在该阶段之后有较大概率维持稳定的涨势，在八连阳结束之后，市场后五个交易日以及后六十 个交易日的涨幅均值分别达1.57%、15.95%。 展望后市，华夏基金投资者回报研究中心王波认为具备两种可能性： ①近期市场持续上涨有力激发人气，增量资金回升，算力、有色、石化、航空航天及高端制造等景气科 技和周期方向持续发力，短期震荡后，指数有望突破前高，大势延续上行并 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market has entered a cross-year rally, driven by positive signals from the recent eight consecutive days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index and optimistic expectations from institutional investors [1][2] - Citic Securities highlights that the recent market adjustments have completed, and the overall market represented by the Wind All A Index has broken through moving averages, indicating a potential new high [1] - Dongguan Securities notes that the offshore RMB has recently surpassed the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time since September 2024, which is expected to have a positive impact on the A-share market [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to experience a "spring surge" as liquidity remains reasonably ample and economic data supports corporate profit recovery [2] - The recent release of the 15th Five-Year Plan and other policy events has heightened investor expectations, contributing to the market's upward momentum [1] - The combination of a slow bull market expectation and the anticipated "spring surge" suggests that a new round of upward movement in the index is likely to commence soon [1]

一季度债市，和历史经验会有什么不同？20251228 摘要 中央经济工作会议定调及政府债券发行节奏是关键。会议显示传统经济 领域稳健，两会后超预期政策概率小，短期利好债市。政府债券发行进 度或放缓，一季度地方债久期预计不会太长，各地政府将根据未来利率 变动进行调整。 权益市场春季躁动或对债市形成压力，但非直接影响。货币政策出现显 著变化，买断式回购和 MLF 改革增强央行操作灵活性，存款利率下行及 存款置换增加存单利率下行概率。 春节前后配置力量有望增强。大银行 EVE 指标变化和小银行 KPI 制定完 成后，买入策略将明确。利率反弹向上时，保险公司购买超长期国债的 量也在逐渐增加。 新兴经济与传统经济增长效能分化，股、商品行情并非直接影响债市。 可能出现股、商品双牛局面，对整体市场形成积极作用。 利率波动中枢预计在 1.7%至 1.95%之间，上行突破 1.95%的概率不高， 如果存单利率下行，则有望达到 1.75%左右甚至更低。一季度内，有望 出现类似于今年 3 月或 10 月那样的机会窗口。 Q&A 2026 年一季度债市的整体预期如何？ 2026 年一季度的债市预期较为复杂，既有与历史相似的因素，也有 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.1%, marking an eight-day winning streak, while the total trading volume reached 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The commercial aerospace sector saw a resurgence, and the lithium battery supply chain strengthened, while sectors such as paper, liquor, and computing hardware faced significant declines [1] - Analysts from Dongfang Caifu Securities believe that the "price increase" concept is likely to further develop, indicating a potential for sustained market activity [2] Group 2 - CITIC Construction Investment states that the cross-year market trend has begun, driven by optimistic expectations from institutional investors and improvements in overseas liquidity and risk [3] - The focus for industry allocation in the cross-year market includes sectors with catalytic potential such as non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, with commercial aerospace remaining a primary market hotspot [3] - Guosheng Securities suggests that the market is likely to confirm its direction before the holiday, with a mixed performance across various indices and sectors, indicating potential for strategic positioning [4]

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain structural opportunities driven by liquidity easing, policy expectations, and a strengthening yuan, with consensus on sectors like technology manufacturing, resource products, and beneficiaries of yuan appreciation [1][4][5] - A total of 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, alongside emerging sectors like commercial aerospace [2][3] - The focus remains on sectors with low heat and high long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new industries like commercial aerospace, while also tracking the trend of yuan appreciation [3][4] Group 2 - The spring market conditions remain favorable, supported by liquidity and investor expectations, with a potential for volatility in early 2026 due to upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [4][10] - The yuan's appreciation is expected to enhance domestic purchasing power and attract foreign capital back to Chinese assets, creating significant potential for asset revaluation [5][6] - Key sectors to watch include AI investments, global manufacturing recovery, and consumer sectors benefiting from increased domestic demand, such as aviation, hotels, and food and beverage [9][11][12] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a lack of clear bull market signals, but the foundation remains solid with improving fundamentals and capital inflows [7][12] - The market is likely to experience a structural and rapid rotation of sectors, with a focus on technology themes and non-bank financial sectors [16][15] - The upcoming spring market is anticipated to show upward momentum, with opportunities for low-positioning strategies and sector switching rather than aggressive trend-following [16][14]

Group 1: Company News - Tongye Technology plans to acquire 91.69% stake in Beijing Silingke Semiconductor for approximately 561 million yuan, constituting a major asset restructuring [3] - Fenglong Co., after a change in control, will maintain its original business focus without significant changes, and there are no plans for major asset restructuring in the next 36 months [4] - Victory Energy, despite stock price fluctuations, confirms that its main business remains unchanged, focusing on liquefied natural gas procurement, transportation, and sales [6] Group 2: Industry News - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy for 2026, including expanding fiscal spending, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payments [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to build a healthy AI ecosystem in the capital market, balancing innovation and regulatory compliance [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities indicates that the A-share year-end rally has begun, driven by positive signals from the recent eight consecutive days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index, following the completion of a mid-term adjustment [1] Market Outlook - The optimistic expectations from institutional investors suggest that the spring market rally may start earlier than usual [1] - Improvements in overseas liquidity and risk, alongside the conclusion of adjustments in AI models in the U.S., contribute to a favorable market environment [1] - The release of numerous policies and events related to the 14th Five-Year Plan has heightened investor expectations [1] Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, with commercial aerospace remaining the primary market focus [1] - Secondary themes include the Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [1] Specific Sector Insights - The upgrade of NVIDIA's Rubin architecture is expected to boost the entire AI computing power industry chain, benefiting sectors such as optical fibers, liquid-cooled servers, CPOs, and storage chips [1] - Non-ferrous metals continue to maintain a rising trend due to price increases in lithium carbonate, gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [1] - The market's thematic focus remains on commercial aerospace, with secondary attention on the Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [1] Investment Highlights - Key sectors for investment consideration include non-ferrous metals, commercial aerospace, AI, humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and the Hainan Free Trade Zone [1]