格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 46 元至 2035 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 25 元至 2047 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 67929 手至 85.34 万手，空 头持仓增加 104211 手至 111.94 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 87%，环比-0.65%。海外甲醇开工率 73.5%，环比+1.5%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 154.36 万吨，增加 5.65 万吨。其中，华东 | | | | | 地区累库，库存增加 6.49 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 0.84 万吨。中国甲醇样 | | | | | 本生产企 ...

重量组第四名：姜烈 参赛昵称：姜先生 市场永远是对的，坦然接受亏损，不断完善自己的交易系统。 黑色组第三名：李振 参赛昵称：度 期货交易提高了我的认知，让我对人生与生活有了更多感悟。 交易风格：趋势交易，技术止损或情绪止损。 对冲套利组第二名：洪流 参赛昵称：阿yi爸爸 十二年工作经历，其中三年在做现货交易，四年期现结合，目前重心逐渐转向期货交易。今年的市场环 境不适合靠近现货端的选手。熟悉的品种交易机会越来越少，未来我会在巩固现有品种的基础上研究新 品种，希望明年有更好的机会和成绩。未来将继续以现货市场为基础进行期货交易。 交易风格：除了关注品种的常规数据，更重视现货市场成交情况。交易时大多利用产业链品种进行对 冲，少量保留风险敞口。 郑商所期权选手奖三等奖：陈林 参赛昵称：Charlie 2014年进入期货市场，曾经想凭借一股冲劲证明自己，迷茫地度过了近九年时光。2023年开始有了较为 清晰的方向和目标。目前以超短线交易为主，通过降低持仓时间控制风险，不追求高利润，但求积少成 多、稳定获利。 不会刻意追求名次，获奖是交易旅程中的记录和见证，是对我们团队策略稳定性的客观肯定。未来，我 将继续坚守纪律，追求长 ...

由期货日报主办的第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛（下称本届大赛），3月28日开赛，9月26日圆满结束。比赛期间，各路参赛选手各显身手、一展 风采。大宗商品市场变幻莫测，对选手策略的适配性提出了更高要求。随着行情的变化以及选手策略的不断调整，各组排名不断刷新，榜首更替频繁。经过 激烈争夺，196个奖项各归其主。 整体看，本届大赛盈利情况较上届有所好转，专业交易者盈利占比过半，重量组、高净值组、量化组全部实现盈利，盈利账户占比及收益率明显提升，中小 交易者亏损幅度加大。专业、机构交易者优势继续体现。 参赛账户数及权益 | 组别 | 账户数 | 权益 | 权益 | 盈利账 | 净利润 | 收益率 | 最高净 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (个) | | (亿元) | 日比 | 户占比 (亿元) | | | 利润 | | | | | (%) | | | | (亿元) | | 轻量组 158737 103 | | | 21 | 20% | -53 | -34% | -0.94 | | 重量组 | 5916 | 106 | 22 | 50% ...

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期货研究报告 | 商品研究 策略报告 供需偏弱，部分装置意外关停，短期震荡为主 聚烯烃周报 20251110-20251117 ❑ 聚乙烯： 1、基本面上：本周产业链库存小幅累积，处于于历年正常水平。本周国内小 幅震荡，基差走强，成交一般；美金现货稳中小跌为主，进口窗口关闭。供应 端：国产开工小幅回升，新装置投产，检修装置减少，进口窗口持续关闭，预 期后期进口量下滑，出口窗口关闭，总体供应环比回升力度减缓。需求端：下 游农地膜处于旺季逐步结束，开工率小幅下降，其他需求一般，总体开工率环 比稳中小降为主。短期来看，产业链库存小幅去化，基差小幅走强，进口窗口 关闭，农膜旺季结束，后期供需仍偏弱，短期震荡为主，往上受制于进口窗口 压制。 ❑ 2、从交易维度上：本周产业链库存小幅去化，基差小幅走强，部分装置意外 检修，短期震荡为主，往上受制于进口窗口压。四季度，供需逐步宽松，单边 逢高做空为主或者逢高做月差反套。 ❑ 聚丙烯： 1、基本面上：本周产业链库存小幅累积，处于历年正常水平。本周国内现货 小幅震荡，基差走强，成交一般；美金现货稳中小跌为主，低价进口窗口关闭， 出口窗口打开。供给端，短期检修仍偏高，检修装置减少 ...

Group 1: Glass Market Analysis - The glass market has experienced several bullish trends over the past five years, with notable surges in April 2020, January 2022, November 2022, June 2023, April 2024, September 2024, and June 2025 [2] - Recent market dynamics indicate a significant increase in short positions, suggesting a challenging environment for a rapid reversal in market trends [7] - Current market conditions reflect a strong inventory pressure, leading to increased short positions in the futures market, which complicates the outlook for price recovery [6][7] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Insights - Lithium carbonate futures have surged to a high of 88,000 yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid-October [8][9] - Demand for lithium carbonate is driven by a significant increase in orders from battery manufacturers, particularly in the energy storage sector, which has seen a rapid rise in consumption [9][11] - Despite high production levels, the market remains hot, with weekly production reaching historical highs, indicating a robust supply-demand balance [11][12] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - After a month of stagnation, silver prices have surged, with spot silver prices approaching $50, driven more by financial attributes than industrial demand [13][15] - The market is experiencing a "non-traditional squeeze," with significant movements in inventory across major exchanges, indicating unresolved supply-demand imbalances [14] - The silver leasing rate remains elevated, suggesting ongoing risks of a squeeze, with market participants awaiting developments in December [15] Group 4: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to attract over 6 trillion yuan from real estate and fixed income products, indicating a significant shift in capital allocation [17][20] - Domestic investors currently have a low allocation to stocks, with only 11% of their assets in equities, suggesting substantial room for growth in stock market participation [20] - The trend of capital migration towards stocks is supported by increasing allocations from both individual and institutional investors, with notable inflows from southbound capital [29] Group 5: Futures Market Selection Criteria - The selection of futures contracts should focus on those with high trading volumes and domestic pricing power, avoiding those with low liquidity or foreign control [21][22] - Key commodities for trading include black series products like rebar and glass, which have shown significant volatility and trend continuation potential [25][39] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying commodities with historical price extremes or prolonged consolidation periods, as these are likely to yield significant trading opportunities [30][31]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 11月14日｜沪银期货主力合约日内跌幅扩大至2%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, the global supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised down due to potential production cuts in Brazil and India. However, Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar prices face pressure from new sugar supply. The short - term sentiment has improved, but the medium - to - long - term is still under supply surplus pressure [3]. - The pulp market is currently in a situation where the futures are strong, and the spot price has followed the increase. The cost of warehouse receipts has risen, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is supported by the high production of finished paper during the peak season [3]. - The double - offset paper market has limited improvement in demand during the peak season, and the supply is relatively abundant. Although the cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, the upward driving force is weak [5]. - The cotton market is under pressure from increased production and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The apple market is supported by the decline in new - season production and good fruit rate, and the inventory is decreasing year - on - year. The price of the 2605 contract is expected to remain strong [8]. - The jujube market has seen a decline in the futures price, and the market's expectation of production cuts has cooled. The inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The new - season production and good fruit rate decline year - on - year, and the inventory continues to decline year - on - year, supporting the valuation. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [18]. - Jujube 2601: Exit short positions at low prices. The futures premium is high, and there is a pressure for the futures and spot prices to converge. The support range is 9400 - 9500, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11300 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Short on rebounds. The global supply surplus pressure remains, and domestic new sugar supply increases. The support range is 5380 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5520 - 5550 [18]. - Pulp 2601: Wait and see. The cost of pulp warehouse receipts has increased, but the supply remains high, and the fundamentals have limited improvement. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5500 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2601: Wait and see. The cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, but the supply is elastic, and the demand suppresses the price. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500 [18]. - Cotton 2601: Reduce short positions at low prices. The new - cotton production estimate is stable, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 13700 - 13800 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In Shandong, the purchase price outside the warehouse was stable, and the price of medium - and small - sized apples in the cold - storage increased. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage transaction increased, and the price of the same - quality fruit in the cold - storage was higher than that outside the warehouse. In other producing areas, the situation varied. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 2.06% month - on - month and 131.35% year - on - year. The futures price continued to fall, and the spot price followed. The market's expectation of production cuts cooled [9][22]. - **Sugar Market**: Datagro lowered the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons. The Brazilian and Indian production estimates were reduced. The domestic new sugar supply increased, and the price faced pressure [3][24]. - **Pulp Market**: As of October 27, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. The domestic paper pulp import volume decreased in October, and the demand was supported by the high production of finished paper [3][26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In October, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry was - 6.57%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month. The cost decline was narrower than the revenue decline, and the profitability continued to decline [27]. - **Cotton Market**: The import volume of cotton in Japan and Thailand changed in September, and the export volume of Cote d'Ivoire increased in October. The national cotton production estimate in November was 741.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from October [28]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2601 closed at 9504, up 297 or 3.23% [29]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 9195, down 170 or - 1.82% [29]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5512, up 34 or 0.62% [29]. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4906, up 16 or 0.33% [29]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13490, down 25 or - 0.18% [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 4 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.7 yuan [34]. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [34]. - The spot price of sugar was 5760 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 560 yuan [34]. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5500 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 680 yuan [34]. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan [34]. - The spot price of cotton was 14819 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 585 yuan [34]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 1 - 5 spread is - 34, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 507. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is 390, with a month - on - month increase of 385 and a year - on - year increase of 275. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Sugar 1 - 5 spread is 79, with a month - on - month increase of 12 and a year - on - year increase of 46. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Cotton 1 - 5 spread is - 5, with a month - on - month increase of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 7721, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 5419 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 221861, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 154591 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 4180, a month - on - month increase of 296 and a year - on - year increase of 1736 [78]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol's profit [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, while other price differentials fluctuate. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025 [5]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is oscillating, and powder production starts are stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the future. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent, the supply pressure can be eased [5]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new production capacity and export sustainability. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380. PVC's comprehensive profit is - 100. Static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed some fluctuations. The daily change in some prices was - 5, and the import profit and主力基差 remained relatively stable [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, and other products changed. The daily change in North China LL was 20, and the主力期货 price increased by 30 [5]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Shandong propylene increased from 5600 to 5760. The prices of other products such as East China PP and North China PP also changed. The主力期货 price increased by 20 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 807. The prices of other products such as电石法 - East China and电石法 - Northwest also showed some changes [5][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 11月13日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结障 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 腰低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交價 | 持仓手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:锌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2511 | 22600 | 22530 | 22755 | 22525 | 22730 | 22635 | 130 | 35 | 1120 | 12678.28 | 557 ...