工业刚需托底盘面 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏弱。现货市场及交投情绪疲软，受出口消息的 影响，大颗粒小颗粒价格走势背离。基本面来看，供应端有小幅减产预期，近 期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，减产占比低，目前暂不能改变供应过剩格 局，需求端，农业需求零星拿货为主，复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计将 持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，后期对尿素需求增加，但目前市场情绪均不高， 工厂以适量拿货为主，预售单的情况下，不急于原料的采购，并且秋季复合肥 以高磷复合肥为主。本期装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，出口消息扰动盘 面价格波动，但数据不及预期，行情下挫。目前下游普遍观望，情绪跟进较为 谨慎，并且复合肥工厂后期预计不会集中拿货了，短期偏空震荡为主，但后续 依然有工业需求的托底，后续行情下方空间有限。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 1400 1800 2200 2600 3000 3400 山东尿素市场主流价 ...

裁以及欧佩克及其限产同盟国增产影响的不确定性之际，欧美原油期货在波动交易中连续第六个交易 日收跌。基本面没有预期外的消息，预计PX偏弱运行，PTA偏弱运行，PR偏弱运行。（PX观点评 分：-1，PTA观点评分：-1，PR观点评分：-1）。 免责声明： 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不 保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供 参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/8 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/8/7 | 美元/桶 | 63.88 | 64.35 | -0.73% | | 上 | 期货结算 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Weak trend, hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread [2][9] - PTA: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low, weak unilateral trend [2][9] - MEG: Go long on MEG and short PTA/PX [2][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX supply - demand is marginally weak due to potential PTA unplanned maintenance reducing demand [9] - PTA has sufficient spot supply with weak basis, and low processing fees may lead to unplanned changes in operation rates. Current supply - demand is weak on both sides [9] - MEG may see a decline in imports in September due to overseas maintenance plans. It's stronger than PTA/PX, and traders focus on basis long - spread and calendar spread short - spread positions [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On August 7, PX price fell following the decline in upstream crude oil and naphtha. The PX - naphtha spread widened. There were bids and offers but no deals [5][6] - **PTA**: A 120 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted. The PTA operation rate was around 76.2% on Thursday, and about 82.0% calculated by another method [6] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi started maintenance for about 20 days. The overall operation rate in mainland China was 68.40% (down 0.6% from the previous period) [6][7] - **Polyester**: The overall polyester operation rate in mainland China recovered to around 88.8%. The sales of polyester filaments and staple fibers on the 7th were weak [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - PTA trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - MEG trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [8] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread as supply - demand remains weak [9] - **PTA**: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low. The unilateral price trend is weak due to current supply - demand situation [9] - **MEG**: Go long on MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the contract roll - over [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Natural Rubber Morning Report dated August 7, 2025, prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The market is dominated by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with supply increasing, spot being strong, and domestic inventories starting to rise. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The basis is - 995 with a spot price of 14500, which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao's inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is running below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, also neutral. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. The market is sentiment - driven for short - term trading [6] Fundamentals Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. Tire production is at a record high for the same period, but tire industry exports are falling [6][8][31] - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 6, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [10] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [16][19] - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [22] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti - involution in the domestic market [8] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, and Qingdao area inventory has not seasonally decreased [8] Basis - The spot price is 14500, and the basis is - 995, which is bearish [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market in the chemical sector shows a predominantly positive trend, with PTA futures experiencing a slight upward movement, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] Cost and Profit Analysis - The cost and profit dynamics are primarily influenced by raw material prices, which are currently declining, while PVC prices have seen a slight increase, leading to improved PVC profit margins [1] Supply Side Dynamics - Recent maintenance activities at various chemical plants, including those in Ulanqab, Ordos, and others, have impacted supply. The capacity utilization rate for PVC has increased by 0.05% to 76.84% [1] Demand Side Insights - The overall operating rate of downstream products has shown a slight weekly recovery, particularly in pipe manufacturing. However, demand remains constrained due to adverse weather conditions and ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [1] Market Outlook - The outlook for August suggests continued pressure on supply and demand dynamics, with rising costs for calcium carbide and a return to a bullish trend for coking coal. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation, with a recommendation to hold short positions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant increase in coke futures, with the primary contract rising by 3% to 1662 yuan per ton on August 6 [1] Group 1 - Coke futures experienced a notable price increase, reaching 1662 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: Neutral [3] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bullish [3] - Imports: Bearish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Neutral [3] - MTO Profits: Bearish [3] - Inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the reality of methanol is weak, but the expectation is strong due to macro and demand increment expectations, leading to a continuous decline in the recent month spread. The short - term strategy is still a reverse arbitrage logic. For unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the impact of commodity sentiment, and look for long opportunities at low levels in forward contracts [3]. - Coal prices have continued to rebound recently, with pit - mouth prices rising, and coal has entered the peak season [3]. - The domestic methanol operating rate has rebounded slightly but remains low, with many domestic plants under maintenance, resulting in a reduction in inland supply [3]. - Overseas plants are resuming production, and there is significant import pressure in August. However, the recent natural gas shortage in Iran has led to a reduction in supply, and the sustainability of this impact should be monitored [3]. - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand is firm, and the procurement sentiment inland is fair. For olefin plants, there are both restarts and maintenance. Xingxing is under maintenance while Mengda has restarted, resulting in a reduction in coastal demand [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol has remained stable, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol has remained in the red, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol has rebounded slightly [3]. - The MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. - Ports have continued to accumulate inventory, while inland inventory has remained low [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Supply - As of the week ending August 1, the national methanol plant operating rate was 71.5%, with the coal - to - methanol plant operating rate at 76.6%, the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 56.8%, and the natural - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 49.9% [11]. - During the period from July 25 to July 31, Yulin Kaiyue, Yankuang Yulin, Shenmu Chemical, Shanxi Linxin, and Shanxi Gengyang restarted, while Shaanxi Changqing and Runzhong Clean started maintenance. Many domestic plants, including Gansu Huating, Yulin Kaiyue, etc., are still under maintenance [13][14]. Overseas Supply - In Iran, multiple plants are operating at low loads, and two plants are shut down. The high - peak summer electricity demand in Iran has led to a natural gas shortage, which may affect methanol production. For example, Zagros PC's two sets of 330 - ton - per - year plants are operating at low loads, and Bushehr and Fanavaran PC are under maintenance [19]. - In other regions, Shell in Germany, Bioethanol in the Netherlands, and some plants in Malaysia, the US, Trinidad, Venezuela, New Zealand, and Chile also have various operating conditions such as shutdowns and low - load operations [19]. Demand Traditional Demand - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand has changed little. The operating rates of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have rebounded slightly, while those of MTBE and acetic acid have declined. Currently, it is the off - season for traditional demand, but overall, it still shows resilience. The current profit of traditional downstream sectors is low, and it remains to be seen whether the peak demand season will materialize [51]. - The downstream procurement volume has declined recently. The procurement of olefins has slowed down after the previous restocking, and the procurement volume of traditional demand has declined continuously, mainly due to the recent price decline suppressing buying sentiment and the impact of the current traditional off - season [56]. Olefin Demand - As of July 31, the MTO operating rate was 81%, and the operating rate of externally - sourced methanol - to - olefin plants was 76.4%. Mengda's MTO plant restarted at the end of the month, and Xingxing's MTO plant shut down for maintenance [40]. - The profit of East China's MTO plants has recently recovered, mainly due to the recent decline in methanol prices in East China. However, the relatively strong inland methanol prices have led to a recent decline in inland profits [40]. Profits - Coal - to - methanol profit has remained stable, natural - gas - to - methanol profit has remained in the red, and coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit has rebounded slightly. As of August 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 136.5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China was - 270 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 275 yuan/ton [32]. - MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. Inventory - This week, the port inventory is 91.5 tons, and the port's tradable inventory is 43.6 tons, continuing to accumulate. Ports are in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. With the shutdown of East China's MTO plants and the realization of increased imports, ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. Inland enterprise inventory has remained low and continued to decline last week. With more inland plants under maintenance and the large - scale procurement by an inland enterprise, the inland sentiment is expected to remain strong [74]. - The inventory of MTO sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The port procurement volume slowed down last week after the downstream's phased restocking. It is expected that procurement will increase slightly this week. The raw - material inventory of traditional downstream sectors has changed little [80]. Market Spreads - The basis of the East China main contract has remained weak recently. With ports continuing to accumulate inventory, the spot basis in East China has been continuously declining. It is expected that the basis will remain weak in July and August [89]. - The 9 - 1 month spread has been continuously declining. The weak reality has pressured the near - end price, but the macro situation and the improved expectation for methanol itself have made the far - end stronger. In the short term, the reverse arbitrage logic is expected to continue [89]. - The PP/L - 3MA spread has strengthened recently. After the methanol price reached a high and then declined, the spread first contracted and then expanded. In the short term, the volatility of the spread still depends on the methanol side, and short - term trading in bands is recommended [94]. Balance Sheet - The total methanol production, supply, and consumption show different trends throughout 2025. For example, the total production is expected to reach 742 tons in August 2025, with coal accounting for 614 tons, natural gas for 54 tons, and coke - oven gas for 74 tons. The total supply is expected to be 867 tons, and the consumption is expected to be 860 tons [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and fluctuated upward today. The spot price rose steadily, and influenced by the rising futures, upstream factories had smooth sales and raised their quotes. In the future, the macro - market sentiment will gradually cool down, and the market is expected to return to fundamentals. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, the market will mainly fluctuate. The current export quota remains unchanged, and the follow - up domestic demand should focus on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories. The current rebound is considered short - term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the output has been below 200,000 tons recently. In the summer, the output is expected to decline slightly further. On the demand side, industrial demand is expected to improve, and it is still based on rigid demand in the short term. The top - dressing demand for agricultural corn has ended, and downstream purchases are mainly from the industrial sector. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to continue to increase this month. After the operating load increases, the demand for urea will increase. The market trading sentiment has improved, and the inventory decline has shown an inflection point, turning to inventory accumulation last week. The rebound today is mainly due to the rising cost - side prices, with coking coal driving up the prices of the coal - chemical industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 1,772 yuan/ton, up 2.67%. The trading volume was 136,100 lots (- 6,142 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 959 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,613 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 469 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,761 lots. Huishang Futures' net short positions increased by 1,184 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 3,361 lots [2] Spot - Since the weekend, the spot price has been in a downward state. Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the results were good with an increase in orders received. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On August 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable and weak, and the futures closing price declined slightly. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 8 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 187,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12]

累库周期，基差维持弱势 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤460元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润690元/吨（+20）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2085元/吨（+20），内蒙北线基差295元/吨（+23），内蒙南线2080元/吨（+30）；山东临沂2360元/吨（+15）， 鲁南基差170元/吨（+18）；河南2220元/吨（-15），河南基差30元/吨（-12）；河北2235元/吨（+0），河北基差105元 /吨（+3）。隆众内地工厂库存324520吨（-15310），西北工厂库存216000吨（+8000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单230725 吨（-14107），西北工厂待发订单112000吨（-6500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2368元/吨（-17），太仓基差-22元/吨（-14），CFR中国269美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差11元/ 吨（+8），常州甲醇2440元/吨；广东甲醇2375元/吨（-10），广东基差-15元/吨（-7）。隆众港口总库存808400吨（+82600）， 江苏港口库存419000吨（+10000），浙江港口库存153000吨（+15000） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to be listed, and the price of peanuts has been continuously adjusted weakly this month. The new peanuts in Jiangxi and other places are listed in small quantities, and the procurement of new rice in the wholesale market is limited. The off - season procurement enthusiasm is low, and the support is insufficient. The drought in some areas may affect the growth of spring peanuts. The oil mills' purchase of oil peanuts is mostly suspended, the start - up rate is low, and the price of peanut oil is weakly adjusted. The enterprise start - up rate of peanut meal is low, and the downstream procurement is not active [6]. - The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. After the small amount of new peanuts are listed, the price has weakened. The short - term market price is likely to continue the weak trend. In the short term, the spot price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating for nearly a year. Given the continuous increase in planting area and unchanged demand, the short - term price is likely to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on whether the price will decline rapidly. Trend traders can try an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints - The planting area of new - season peanuts increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. The new peanuts in Jiangxi are listed in small quantities, and the price weakens after a small increase in supply. The short - term market price is likely to continue to decline. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and demand. Futures are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term focus is on the downward trend. Trend traders can use an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3.2 Market Review - **Overall Situation**: The peanut weighted index has been oscillating and declining this month, while the oil and fat sector has been oscillating and rising. Since September 2024, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating, and the price continued to fall this month with increased trading volume and a reduced decline, indicating some support at the lower limit of the range. The oil and fat sector is stronger than peanuts, and attention should be paid to its callback volume and price [8][10]. - **2510 Contract**: The price of the 2510 contract has been oscillating downward this month, with a rapid decline after rising. There is some buying support at around 8100, but whether the price can strengthen in the short term depends on the follow - up of buying [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Oil Mill Inventory and Start - up Rate**: The end - of - month inventory of peanut oil is 39,090 tons, a decrease of 510 tons from the previous month. The start - up rate of oil mills is 4.32%, a decrease of about 2.52% from the previous month [16]. - **Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha)**: The Baisha peanut price has been continuously weakening this month as the old peanut inventory is being consumed and the bargaining space has increased [19]. - **Peanut Oil Price Trend**: The average price of first - class ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this month is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last month [23]. - **Peanut Meal Price Trend**: The peanut meal price has been oscillating narrowly this month, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal have been oscillating upward [27]. - **Imported Peanut Quantity and Price**: The cold - storage new refined peanuts imported from Sudan are quoted at 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton with almost no stock. The Senegalese oil peanuts are quoted at 7,800 yuan/ton, with good quality at 8,000 yuan/ton and refined peanuts at 8,500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume is small. There will be few subsequent arrivals of African peanuts [31]. - **Market Price Index Compared with Last Month**: In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price is mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price is relatively stable [33]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report provides the data source for the basis spread of peanuts - Baisha but does not elaborate on the specific spread situation [35][37]