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能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250608
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 07:47
国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017709 钱嘉寅(联系人)期货从业资格号:F03124480 日期:2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤:短期震荡市,中期偏弱 瓶片:震荡偏弱 供需平衡表 CONTENTS 02 瓶片(PR) 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 短纤(PF) 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 2 01 03 观点小结 01 观点总结 瓶片观点总结 短纤观点总结 瓶片:工厂边际减产开始体现,短期震荡中期偏弱 (1)工厂、社会库同步累库,基本面支撑弱。供应端压力逐渐以减 产形式体现,三房巷检修扩大合计180万吨左右产能,另外澄高60万 吨因故障停车,工厂开工89.4%,工厂库存与社会总库存同步累库, 本周在16天左右。部分工厂总体在前期低价锁定原料的前提下仍能保 持高开工,后续压力延续 ...
沥青:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 01:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Range-bound" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows a range - bound trend, with the trend strength at 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2506, the yesterday's closing price was 3,539 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3,522 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% decrease. The trading volume was 24,608 lots with an increase of 2,443 lots, and the open interest was 37,984 lots with a decrease of 5,833 lots. For BU2507, the yesterday's closing price was 3,526 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3,507 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decrease. The trading volume was 255,407 lots with an increase of 72,717 lots, and the open interest was 145,481 lots with a decrease of 27,107 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 86,510 lots with no change [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 06) was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 06 - 07 inter - period spread was 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,625 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,717 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,853 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,580 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,607 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,663 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 30.49%, an increase of 1.28% from the previous update, and the refinery inventory rate was 30.39%, an increase of 0.08% from the previous update [1] 2. Market Information - **Production**: In June 2025, the total domestic asphalt production is planned to be 2.309 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from the previous month but an 8.5% increase from the same period last year. In the week from May 20 - 26, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 462,000 tons, an 8.9% decrease from the previous week and a 3.5% decrease from the same period last year. The cumulative production from January to May was 11.961 million tons, a 3.6% increase from the same period last year [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 858,000 tons, a 2.3% decrease from May 22. The inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.877 million tons, a 0.1% increase from May 22 [13]
花生:有所回落
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:25
2025 年 5 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 花生:有所回落 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 花生基本面数据 | | | | | 昨日价格 | | 价格变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重要现货 | 辽宁308通货 | 元/吨 | | 8,400 | | 0 | | | 价 格 | 河南白沙通货 | 元/吨 | | 8,260 | | 0 | | | | 兴城小日本 | 元/吨 | | 8,660 | | 0 | | | | 苏丹精米 | 元/吨 | | 8,375 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨跌% | | | | PK510 | 元/吨 | | 8,352 | | 0.53 | | | | PK511 | 元/吨 | | 8,250 | | 0.61 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | PK510 | 手 | 56,868 | | -14,43 ...
鸡蛋:短期调整为主
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Report's Core View - The egg market is mainly in a short - term adjustment phase [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Egg Futures Data - Egg 2507 contract: The closing price is 2,938 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.54%. The trading volume increased by 19,679, and the open interest increased by 4,728 [1] - Egg 2509 contract: The closing price is 3,770 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased by 4,616, and the open interest increased by 2,067 [1] 3.2 Egg Spread Data - Egg 7 - 8 spread: The latest value is - 691, compared to - 673 the previous day [1] - Egg 7 - 9 spread: The latest value is - 832, compared to - 807 the previous day [1] 3.3 Egg Spot Price Data - Liaoning spot price: The latest price is 3.20 yuan/jin, compared to 3.35 yuan/jin the previous day [1] - Hebei spot price: The latest price is 2.80 yuan/jin, compared to 2.84 yuan/jin the previous day [1] - Shanxi spot price: The latest price is 3.10 yuan/jin, compared to 3.20 yuan/jin the previous day [1] - Hubei spot price: The latest price is 3.09 yuan/jin, compared to 3.13 yuan/jin the previous day [1] 3.4 Feed and Related Price Data - Corn spot price: The latest price is 2,303 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [1] - Soybean meal spot price: The latest price is 2,920 yuan/ton, compared to 3,020 yuan/ton the previous day [1] - Henan pig price: The latest price is 14.80 yuan/kg, compared to 14.85 yuan/kg the previous day [1] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]
沥青:跟随原油震荡反复
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:06
2025 年 5 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 沥青:跟随原油震荡反复 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,466 | -1.56% | 3,469 | 0.09% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,444 | -1.57% | 3,451 | 0.20% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2506 | 手 | 130,539 | (9,611) | 78,604 | (8,483) | | | BU2507 | 手 | 96,441 | 25,253 | 144,000 | 2,172 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 86520 | 0 | | | | | | | ...
铝:偏强运行,氧化铝:大幅反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 02:22
2025 年 05 月 15 日 铝:偏强运行 氧化铝:大幅反弹 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 期 货 研 究 期货研究 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20275 | 270 | 810 | 950 | ୧୦ | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20255 | - | ー | l | - | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2523 | 29 | 142 | 166 | -102 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 160950 | 20134 | -105792 | -92656 | 79320 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 151804 | -8645 | -43007 | 7201 | -13563 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 18067 | ୧୨୨5 | 5408 | -7789 | -2954 | ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250429
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:05
2025年04月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:预期反复,宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:限产预期升温,短线反弹 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:限产预期升温,短线反弹 | 3 | | 硅铁:低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:限产消息扰动,宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:限产消息扰动,宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤:刚需发力有限,震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石:预期反复,宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | Wi | | | | | | --- ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250428
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:35
商 品 研 究 2025年04月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:预期反复,宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:限产预期升温,短线反弹 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:限产预期升温,短线反弹 | 3 | | 硅铁:低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:限产消息扰动,宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:限产消息扰动,宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤:刚需发力有限,震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025 年 4 月 28 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石:预期反复,宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌 ...
苯乙烯:偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:16
苯乙烯:偏弱震荡 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 28 日 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 苯乙烯趋势强度:-1 注:趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强,-2 表 示最看空,2 表示最看多。 【现货消息】 1、 天量进口纯苯去哪里了?港口纯苯为什么还一直去库? a) 海外供应整体偏多,高进口供应仍然维持。5 月进口偏少,但是 6 月之后仍然维持。 2、 下游实际需求情况 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2505 | 7,323 | 7,375 | -52 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2506 | 7,197 | 7,248 | -51 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,105 | 7,149 | -44 | ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-2025-04-07
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 05:36
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: The wind has turned weaker, and the valuation may be significantly revised downward [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Concerns about systemic risks have intensified, resulting in weak oscillations [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Due to the resonance of the black sector, they experience wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal: There is a divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to wide - range oscillations [2][16][17]. - Steam coal: Demand has improved, but prices are under pressure [2][20]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day, with a position of 303,166 hands, a decrease of 33,977 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined, and the basis and spreads showed different changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The State Council Tariff Commission will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 2, indicating the most bearish view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2505 closed at 3,164 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or 0.19%; hot - rolled coil HC2505 closed at 3,337 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 0.63%. Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads also changed [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On April 4, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production increased by 1.22 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.05 million tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 21.04 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 9.62 million tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 4.37 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 6.37 million tons. The US government announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods exported to the US, and China will impose additional tariffs on US imports [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a bearish view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes, and spot prices generally declined. There were also changes in the basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On April 3, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon in various regions were reported, and UMK announced its manganese ore quotation for May 2025. There were also news about ferrosilicon and silicomanganese steel tenders [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral view [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of coking coal JM2505 closed at 1,001 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan or 0.05%; the futures price of coke J2505 closed at 1,628.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.49%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads changed [17]. - **Price and Position Information**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and on April 3, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, there were changes in the long and short positions of coking coal and coke contracts [17][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral view [19]. Steam Coal - **Yesterday's Inner - Market Situation**: The steam coal ZC2505 had no trading yesterday, with the previous opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest price of 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price of 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [20]. - **Fundamental Information**: The prices of southern port foreign - trade steam coal and domestic steam coal production areas were reported. On April 3, from the position of the top 20 members of the ZCE, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2505 contract did not change [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of FG505 closed at 1,198 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The basis and spreads changed, and important spot prices were mostly stable [23]. - **Spot News**: The price of the domestic float glass original sheet market was stable with a slight decline. The trading in the northern Shahe market declined slightly, and other markets mainly sold at stable prices, with different trading situations [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [24].