1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily investment analysis and trading strategies for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost end has a significant increase, suggest a rolling long - short spread strategy. With some device changes, the supply margin decreases, and it's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies [4][9]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost, suggest a long - short spread strategy. New device launches increase supply pressure. The basis is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is worth attention. Polyester production and sales have local surges, and the start - up rate may bottom out in the short term [4][9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, suggest a reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Port inventory is decreasing, but the 09 contract has delivery pressure. Consider shorting MEG and going long on L [4][10]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a range. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have declined. The tire industry has high inventory and low start - up rate due to weak demand [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest of butadiene rubber have decreased. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the port and production enterprise inventories of butadiene have declined significantly, providing valuation support [15][16][17]. Asphalt - It follows the strong trend of crude oil with small - step increases. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate have decreased. The capacity utilization rate, device maintenance volume, and shipment volume of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt have changed [18][26][31]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has a partial small increase. Macroscopically, pay attention to the trade - war risk in August. The cost is supported by crude oil, but the supply pressure is increasing [32][33]. PP - The spot market fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is light. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The production enterprise price is mostly stable, and the downstream is cautious [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Pay attention to the delivery pressure. The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price in Shandong are provided. The market is in the off - season, with insufficient upward momentum but strong cost support. The 08 - contract warehouse receipts may impact the market [39][40][41]. Pulp - It is expected to move weakly in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high port inventory and weak demand in the paper market [44][46]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The spot price in different regions is stable, and the market shipment is average [49][50]. Methanol - It is under pressure and moves in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The spot price has a partial increase, but the futures decline in the afternoon weakens the market atmosphere [53][56]. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The enterprise inventory has increased due to weak domestic demand and less - than - expected exports [58][59]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The futures price has increased, and the non - integrated and integrated profits have decreased. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage, and it's recommended to short styrene [61][62]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The enterprise device load is increasing, and downstream demand is average, with the market expected to be stable and fluctuate in the short term [63]. PVC - It is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price and the basis are provided. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high production, high inventory, and limited improvement from the anti - involution policy [65][66][67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it is still strong in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price shows a strong range movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to rise [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions in the 10 - contract. The futures price of different contracts and the freight index of different routes are provided. The freight index of European and US - West routes has different changes, and the shipping capacity data is also presented [72].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a bullish and volatile market due to sector-wide market resonance [1] - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is rated as 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,356 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.32%); trading volume was 2,878,137 lots, and open interest was 1,998,652 lots, an increase of 92,300 lots. For hot-rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,507 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton (1.98%); trading volume was 995,111 lots, and open interest was 1,554,563 lots, an increase of 46,781 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 50, 40, 30, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 30, 30, 30, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 21 yuan/ton to -7 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 increased by 16 yuan/ton to -43 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 5 yuan/ton to -11 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Production and Inventory Data (July 24)**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 3.65 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 1.22 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.62 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 2.25 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.16 million tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 8.55 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 million tons [2] - **Mid - July Steel Production Data (2025)**: Key steel enterprises produced 2,141 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 214.1 million tons (a 2.1% daily increase); 1,944 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194.4 million tons (a 0.6% daily increase); and 2,080 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208.0 million tons (a 4.6% daily increase) [3] - **Policy News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair pricing practices [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the asphalt market, showing that the asphalt market is experiencing slow shipments and repeated fluctuations. The current trend strength is neutral, and the market is following the oil price to fluctuate within a range, while regional spot price differences are stabilizing with fluctuations. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - BU2508 yesterday's closing price was 3,641 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the overnight closing price was 3,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. The trading volume was 391 lots, a decrease of 733 lots, and the open interest was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 87 lots. - BU2509 yesterday's closing price was 3,615 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.36%, and the overnight closing price was 3,591 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%. The trading volume was 205,894 lots, an increase of 38,916 lots, and the open interest was 171,367 lots, a decrease of 15,043 lots. - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 82,180 lots, a decrease of 120 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The basis (Shandong - 08) was 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous day. - The 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan from the previous day. - The Shandong - South China spread was 190, a decrease of 5 from the previous day. - The East China - South China spread was 190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,913 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 4,058 yuan/ton. - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, unchanged, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,701 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,739 yuan/ton. - As of July 24, the refinery operating rate was 31.95%, a decrease of 1.29% from July 21, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.10%, a decrease of 0.79% from July 21 [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Production Data**: In the week of 20250718 - 20250724, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 51.7 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week and a 12.1% increase year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to July was 1,755.4 million tons, a 7.7% increase year - on - year [14]. - **Inventory Data**: - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 72.3 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 21. The East China region had the largest de - stocking amplitude. - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 185.7 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from July 21. The East China region's social warehouses had obvious de - stocking [14]. 3.3 Trend Strength The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the strength range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics. Textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary According to the Data Directory 3.1 Outer Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars): The price decreased from 16.57 on July 24, 2025, to 16.28 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.75% [3]. - US cotton (in dollars): The price decreased from 68.74 on July 24, 2025, to 68.23 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.74% [3]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): The price remained at 6050.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): The price increased from 5910.0 on July 24, 2025, to 5920.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.17% [3]. - Cotton Index 328: The price decreased from 3281 on July 24, 2025, to 3280 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.09% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): The price increased from 15400.0 on July 24, 2025, to 15450.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.32% [3]. 3.3 Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: The spread increased from 53.0 on July 24, 2025, to 63.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 18.87% [3]. - SR05 - 09: The spread increased from - 251.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 233.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 7.17% [3]. - SR09 - 01: The spread decreased from 198.0 on July 24, 2025, to 170.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 14.14% [3]. - CF01 - 05: The spread remained at 75.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - CF05 - 09: The spread increased from - 170.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 130.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 23.53% [3]. - CF09 - 01: The spread decreased from 95.0 on July 24, 2025, to 55.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 42.11% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: The basis decreased from 242.0 on July 24, 2025, to 214.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 11.57% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: The basis decreased from 295.0 on July 24, 2025, to 277.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 6.10% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: The basis remained at 44.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: The basis decreased from 1498.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1434.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.27% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: The basis decreased from 1573.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1509.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.07% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: The basis decreased from 1403.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1379.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.71% [3]. 3.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: The price increased from 78.7 on July 24, 2025, to 79.2 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.64% [3]. 3.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: The profit remained at 1582.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.6 Options - SR509C5900: Implied volatility is 0.1037, and the futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 6.95 [3]. - SR509P5900: Implied volatility is 0.1111 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1531, and the futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.6 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1511 [3]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 20940.0 on July 24, 2025, to 20642.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.42% [3]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 9337.0 on July 24, 2025, to 9265.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.77% [3]. 4. Company Information - The report is from Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [8].

2025 年 7 月 21 日 焦炭：一轮提涨落地，震荡偏强 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 流跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 926 | 7.5 | 0. 82% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1518 | -1 | -0. 07% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1316545 | 531903 | -19562 | | | | J2509 | 28533 | 43932 | -822 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1300 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1300 | 漆跌(元/吨) 0 | | | 焦煤 | 山西仓单成本 | 894 | 894 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 950 | 950 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1150 | 1150 | 0 | | | | 峰景折人民币 | 1517 | 1519 | -2 | | 现货价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel procurement sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remains strong, and both are in a wide - range oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of 2508 and 2509 contracts are 5466 and 5482 respectively, with volume of 5,010 and 122,756, and open interest of 11,364 and 193,107. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of 2508 and 2509 contracts are 5792 and 5794 respectively, with volume of 1,553 and 146,872, and open interest of 12,184 and 353,847 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton, Mn44 block manganese ore is 39.0 yuan/ton - degree, and small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - 08 futures spread of ferrosilicon is - 216 yuan/ton, the spot - 09 futures spread of silicomanganese is - 194 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread of ferrosilicon is - 16 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese is - 2 yuan/ton. The 2508 spread between silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is 326 yuan/ton, and the 2509 spread is 312 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 17, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, etc. The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, etc. The northern price of 6517 silicomanganese is 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern price is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [2]. - **Steel Procurement News**: A steel mill in Jiangsu set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 1000 tons. Steel mills in Zhejiang, Henan, and Qingyuan set the purchase prices of silicomanganese at 5770 yuan/ton (converted to base, acceptance bill, tax - included, delivered to the factory), 5735 yuan/ton (cash, tax - included, delivered to the factory), and 5800 yuan/ton (cash, tax - included, delivered to the factory) respectively, with the latter rising 80 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Steel Output Data**: In early July, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% decrease year - on - year. The average daily output of steel products was 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 0.4% increase year - on - year [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 18, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Content: Analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of multiple agricultural product futures including soybean meal, soybeans, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Technical buying drove up CBOT soybean prices, and the domestic market showed a strong trend [4][6]. - **Sugar**: The market was in a narrow consolidation phase [7]. - **Cotton**: The near - term contracts were stronger than the long - term ones [11]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrived earlier, and the culling of hens slowed down [16]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for the end - of - month market to confirm the price trend, with a focus on reserve policies [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4,200 yuan/ton (+34, +0.82%) during the day and 4,215 yuan/ton (+21, +0.50%) at night; DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton (+51, +1.71%) during the day and 3,033 yuan/ton (+22, +0.73%) at night. CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1027.25 cents/bushel (+7.5, +0.74%). The spot price of soybean meal in different regions had various changes, and the trading volume was 16.81 million tons/day, with a weekly inventory of 84.29 million tons [4]. - **News**: On July 17, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to active technical buying and strong Chicago soybean oil prices. However, the optimistic outlook for US soybean production limited the price increase [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybeans had a trend intensity of +1, indicating a relatively strong trend [6]. 3.2 Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.75 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,050 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,828 yuan/ton. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [7][8]. - **News**: Pakistan approved the import of 50 million tons of sugar, the Brazilian central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress was slow but the MIX increased significantly, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and Brazil's sugar exports in June increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]. 3.3 Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509 closed at 14,250 yuan/ton (+1.86%) during the day and 14,320 yuan/ton (+0.49%) at night. The spot prices of cotton in different regions increased to varying degrees. The cotton spot market was generally quiet, and the cotton yarn market had potential restocking and speculative demand [11][12]. - **News**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly, supported by the expectation of a trade agreement but limited by the strong US dollar and average weekly export sales data [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. 3.4 Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The egg 2508 contract closed at 3,462 yuan/500 kilograms (+0.14%), and the egg 2510 contract closed at 3,371 yuan/500 kilograms (-1.40%). The spot prices of eggs in different regions increased [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. 3.5 Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of hogs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong decreased, while the futures prices of hog contracts such as 2509, 2511, and 2601 increased. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts changed to varying degrees [20]. - **Market Logic**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, and the focus is on reserve policies. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The trend strength of corn is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The northeast purchase average price is not available, the Jinzhou closing price is 2,350 yuan/ton, the Guangdong Shekou price is 2,430 yuan/ton, and the Shandong corn starch price is 2,840 yuan/ton, with no price changes from the previous day [1] - **Futures Prices**: For C2509, the previous day's closing price was 2,293 yuan/ton (-0.35%), and the overnight closing price was 2,280 yuan/ton (-0.57%); for C2511, the previous day's closing price was 2,264 yuan/ton (-0.26%), and the overnight closing price was 2,255 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For C2509, the previous day's trading volume was 373,438 hands (-67,815), and the open interest was 1,054,601 hands (+18,363); for C2511, the previous day's trading volume was 51,567 hands (-19,331), and the open interest was 395,745 hands (+1,998). The total trading volume of the corn market was 463,826 hands (-103,480), and the total open interest was 1,705,212 hands (+23,637) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of the corn market were 185,421 hands (-390) [1] - **Price Spreads**: The main 09 basis was 57 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 29 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Corn Prices**: The northern corn collection port price is 2,280 - 2,300 yuan/ton (listed), the container collection port price is 2,330 - 2,360 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton); the Guangdong Shekou bulk carrier price is 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton (-10 yuan), the container new crop quotation is 2,470 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Northeast enterprise corn prices mostly declined, while North China corn prices rebounded [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The price of Argentine sorghum (bulk) in Guangdong for July - August shipment is 2,130 yuan/ton, the price of Australian sorghum for July - August shipment is 2,430 yuan/ton. The pre - sale price of imported barley for August - September shipment is 2,140 - 2,180 yuan/ton, and for November - December shipment is 2,050 yuan/ton. The price of feed wheat for July delivery is 2,530 yuan/ton, and for August is 2,560 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum is under pressure during the off - season. - Alumina shows a short - term bullish and volatile trend. - Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,415, down 280 from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 2,602, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract have changed compared to previous periods [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 3,145, up 28 from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest have also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract is 19,805, down 125 from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest have different changes [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 483,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 3,879.07, down 339.25 from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina is 3,186, unchanged from the previous day. The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises is not clearly stated [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 24, unchanged from the previous day. The three - place inventory total is 26,680, an increase of 1,368 from the previous day [1]. 3.3 Other Information - EU is ready to impose counter - tariff on 72 billion euros of US goods if the trade negotiation fails. Brazil is seeking to reduce the new tariff from 50% to 30% and postpone it for 90 days [3]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

2025 年 07 月 15 日 纯苯：偏弱震荡 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 6189 | 6183 | 6 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1289 | -1233 | -56 | | BZ2604 | 6170 | 6167 | 3 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -1178 | -1133 | -45 | | BZ2605 | 6198 | 6150 | 48 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1020 | -989 | -31 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 19 | 16 | 3 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1004 | -996 | -8 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -28 | 17 | -45 | 山东纯苯价格 | 5850 | 5850 | 0 | | 纸货价格：N+1 ...