2025 年 10 月 15 日 LPG：低位相对抗跌 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,137 | 1.35% | 4,143 | 0.15% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 3,980 | 0.13% | 3,993 | 0.33% | | | PL2601 | 6,084 | -1.51% | 6,066 | -0.30% | | | PL2602 | 6,129 | -1.38% | 6,090 | -0.64% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 73,466 | 21108 | 52,134 | -6481 | | | PG251 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite declines, and valuation is under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak reality combined with weakening expectations may lead to a slight correction in steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with wide fluctuations [2][9] - Coke and coking coal: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, with weak fluctuations [2][13] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the I 2601 futures contract was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The open interest was 476,191 lots, an increase of 16,626 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 924.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines (61.5%) was 790.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 760.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; and Super Special fines (56.5%) remained unchanged at 716.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Benxi ore (66%) was 946.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; and Laiwu ore (65%) was 864.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [4] - **Trend strength**: -1 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%; the HC2601 hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.37%. In terms of spot prices, rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Guangzhou. Hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [6] - **Macro and industry news**: In October 2025, the US announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software. In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imports were 500,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%. According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 8, the output of rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil by 14,000 tons, and the total output of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; the total inventory of rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75-B in Inner Mongolia was 5,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 40.0 yuan/ton-degree, and the price of semi-coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton. The spot-futures price difference for ferrosilicon was -236 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; for silicomanganese, it was -80 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On October 10, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 80,100 tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 118,600 tons, in Fangchenggang decreased by 2,000 tons, and the total inventory increased by 27,900 tons [10] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,161 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.3%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Among spot coking coal prices, the prices of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal, Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal self-pickup price, and Lvliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. The price of Peak Downs coking coal converted to RMB decreased by 1,650 yuan to 0 yuan/ton. Among spot coke prices, the prices of Hebei quasi-primary dry quenched coke, Shanxi quasi-primary delivered price, and Rizhao Port quasi-primary price index remained unchanged [13] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [14] - **Trend strength**: -1 for both coke and coking coal [14] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the 2511, 2601, and 2603 log futures contracts remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different degrees of change. Among spot log prices, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [16] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [18] - **Trend strength**: -1 [18]

2025 年 10 月 10 日 LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,072 | -3.89% | 4,061 | -0.27% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 3,978 | -4.35% | 3,985 | 0.18% | | | PL2601 | 6,210 | -1.74% | 6,204 | -0.10% | | | PL2602 | 6,252 | -1.91% | 6,250 | -0.03% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 70,374 | -3978 | 66,864 | 1964 | | | PG2512 | 31,980 | 12669 | 54,225 | 7818 | | | PL2601 | 4,594 | 1598 | 12,716 | 616 | | | PL2602 | 28 ...

商 品 研 究 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,909 | -0.65 | 9,470 | -27,775 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,360 | 0.36 | -2,169 | -2,665 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 差 价 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -280 | | -262 | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -451 | | -434 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.40 | | 3.40 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.96 | | 3.07 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.40 | | 3.15 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.53 | | 3.60 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 玉米现货 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 沥青：华南独累库，美委再生波 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,424 | -1.21% | 3,424 | 0.00% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,373 | -1.32% | 3,373 | 0.00% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 126,540 | (25,581) | 111,919 | (20,946) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 47,488 | (7,421) | 84,959 | (6,738) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 44430 | -6220 | | | | | | | 昨日价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The open interest decreased by 34,937 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined slightly. The basis and inter - contract spreads showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to August, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3097 yuan/ton and 3289 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.34%) and 41 yuan (-1.23%) respectively. Open interest and trading volume data are provided, and spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple industry data were released, including profit data of large - scale industrial enterprises, steel production, inventory, and import - export data. For example, from January to August, the cumulative export of steel was 7749.0 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [9][10]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia declined. Various spreads such as basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - product spreads are provided [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and production data in some areas are provided [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 were 1154 yuan/ton and 1647 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (-3.6%) and 45.5 yuan (-2.7%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and basis and inter - contract spreads changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it has never issued or authorized any notices or initiatives regarding "mandatory production cuts" or "joint price increases" [16]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0 [16]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is 0 [20].

Report Title - LPG: Short-term support is not weak, pay attention to cost changes [2] - Propylene: Weak operation in the short term [3] Core Viewpoints - LPG has short-term support but investors should focus on cost changes; propylene is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2][3] Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,290 yesterday with a 0.54% increase, and 4,317 at night with a 0.63% increase - PG2512 closed at 4,211 yesterday with a 0.21% increase, and 4,235 at night with a 0.57% increase - PL2601 closed at 6,365 yesterday with a -0.11% decrease, and 6,396 at night with a 0.49% increase - PL2602 closed at 6,399 yesterday with no change, and 6,412 at night with a 0.20% increase [3] Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had a trading volume of 65,891 yesterday, an increase of 4,599 from the previous day, and a position of 80,682, a decrease of 7,631 - PG2512 had a trading volume of 12,891 yesterday, an increase of 1,852 from the previous day, and a position of 43,849, an increase of 1,244 - PL2601 had a trading volume of 2,531 yesterday, an increase of 1,093 from the previous day, and a position of 12,193, a decrease of 94 - PL2602 had a trading volume of 44 yesterday, unchanged from the previous day, and a position of 622, a decrease of 2 [3] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 290 yesterday, compared to 283 the day before - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 370 yesterday, compared to 393 the day before - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 110 yesterday, compared to 113 the day before - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -15 yesterday, compared to -42 the day before - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -90 yesterday, compared to -97 the day before [3] Industrial Chain Data - PDH operating rate was 69.5% this week, compared to 64.6% last week - MTBE operating rate was 64.2% this week, compared to 63.6% last week - Alkylation operating rate was 47.4% this week, compared to 44.9% last week [3] Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0; propylene trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] Market News CP Paper Goods - On September 26, 2025, the October CP paper goods, propane was at $542/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day; butane was at $520/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper goods, propane was at $557/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [7] PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH plants have maintenance plans, with some starting from 2023 and the end times of many still to be determined [8] Liquefied Gas Plant Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas plants have maintenance plans, with varying durations and some end times still to be determined [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The report is titled "Eggs: Waiting for the Double Festival Confirmation", but no specific core view is elaborated in the provided content [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Egg 2510 is 2,957 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.17%, a trading volume decrease of 12,594, and an open - interest decrease of 6,401. The closing price of Egg 2601 is 3,354 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a trading volume decrease of 7,297, and an open - interest increase of 2,124 [2]. - **Spread Data**: The Egg 10 - 12 spread is - 222 (previous day: - 242), and the Egg 10 - 1 spread is - 397 (previous day: - 413) [2]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.50 yuan/jin, 3.38 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin, and 3.96 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,300 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,317 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 2,900 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,920 yuan/ton), and the pig price in Henan is 12.68 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged [2]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term and medium - term trends and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Overall, different futures have different trends, such as some being in a short - term rebound but medium - term weak situation, some in a long - term supply - pressure situation, and some in a short - term or medium - term oscillating state [2][10][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Performance**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices showed declines. PX主力昨日收盘价6530, down 0.94%; PTA主力4556, down 0.65%; MEG主力4212, down 0.66% [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical factors. PX prices fell on September 23, and Asian PX market sentiment and buying interest weakened. PTA spot prices dropped, and MEG prices had certain fluctuations, with some areas having specific transaction price ranges [6][9]. - **Trend and Suggestion**: PX has short - term cost support and may rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak. PTA has short - term cost support but a weak medium - term trend. MEG has large supply pressure throughout the year, with a short - term and medium - term bearish trend. Suggestions include holding short positions for PX and MEG and conducting 1 - 5 reverse spreads for PX and PTA [10][11]. 2. Rubber - **Market Performance**: Rubber showed an oscillating operation. The main contract had small price fluctuations, with the day - session closing price at 15,525 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, and the night - session closing price at 15,605 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [14]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, China's small - passenger - car tire exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Most regions' export volumes showed a month - on - month decline, but the exports to the EU still ranked first, and the exports to some Asian regions increased [16]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: Synthetic rubber showed short - term oscillating operation. The main contract's day - session closing price was 11,430 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The spot prices of some products, such as cis - butadiene rubber, decreased slightly [18]. - **Industry News**: The domestic butadiene market was slightly weak, and the downstream products' trends continued to decline. The synthetic rubber market had high supply pressure, but the downward space of the futures price was narrowing due to the price approaching the static cost line [19][20]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. 4. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Asphalt showed that Shandong's factory warehouses were under pressure, and East China's shipments were stable. Futures prices had certain fluctuations, and the factory inventory in Shandong increased, while the social inventory in some regions decreased [22][34]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [31]. 5. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: LLDPE may have a medium - term oscillating market. The market price partially declined, with a decline range of 10 - 80 yuan/ton. The linear futures were weak, and some manufacturers' ex - factory prices were lowered [35]. - **Market Analysis**: Although the short - term commodity sentiment was weak, the PE demand continued to improve, mainly due to the peak - season stockpiling of the agricultural film industry. The supply pressure might be alleviated in the short - term, and the inventory pressure was not large, so the medium - term trend might be an interval oscillation [36]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [37]. 6. PP - **Market Performance**: PP's later - stage short - selling at low levels needs to be cautious, and the medium - term may be an oscillating market. The domestic PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. The futures price was low, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was insufficient [39][40]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term demand improved month - on - month, but the cost was still weak. The supply - side maintenance increased, and the price elasticity at low levels was low. The downstream processing start - up rate improved slightly, but the procurement was in a "buy - on - rise" state [40]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [41]. 7. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: Caustic soda is suppressed by the weak reality. The 01 - contract futures price was 2535, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong had certain relationships with the futures price [43]. - **Market Analysis**: The 32% caustic soda in Shandong was under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production was difficult to be falsified in the short - term. The price of 50% caustic soda rose due to regional arbitrage, and the market was in a state of wide - range oscillation with multiple and short expectations intertwined [45]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [47]. 8. Pulp - **Market Performance**: Pulp showed a wide - range oscillating state. The futures price was relatively stable, and the spot price did not change significantly. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [50][51]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [50]. 9. Glass - **Market Performance**: Glass's original - sheet price was stable. The futures price declined, and the spot price in most regions was stable, with only some regions having small price fluctuations. The market trading activity was average, and the shipment in some southern regions was restricted by typhoon weather [54]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [54]. 10. Methanol - **Market Performance**: Methanol showed short - term oscillating operation. The futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had regional differences, with some regions having price increases and some having decreases [56][58]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term main contract is under pressure and oscillating, but the downward space is gradually narrowing. The supply - side high - import volume and high - daily - output lead to increased inventory, while the downstream MTO production profit has improved [58]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [59]. 11. Urea - **Market Performance**: Urea shows short - term oscillation and medium - term pressure. The futures price declined slightly, and the spot price in some regions was stable, while in some regions, it had small fluctuations [60]. - **Industry News**: In mid - September 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased slightly, with some provinces having inventory increases and some having decreases. The export is accelerating, but the domestic demand is weak, and the medium - term trend is bearish [61]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [62]. 12. Styrene - **Market Performance**: Styrene is bearish in the medium - term. The futures price showed certain declines, and the spot price in Shandong was weak, with low downstream replenishment willingness [63][64]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term market is oscillating and weak. The downstream demand in September is difficult to exceed expectations, and the port inventory may accumulate. The supply pressure of pure benzene in the fourth quarter is still high, and there is an opportunity for valuation correction [64]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [63]. 13. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The soda - ash spot market has little change. The futures price declined, and the spot price in different regions was relatively stable, with the supply at a high level and the downstream demand having no obvious fluctuations [67]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [67]. 14. LPG and Propylene - **Market Performance**: LPG shows short - term narrow - range oscillation, and propylene shows short - term weakness at a high level. The futures prices of LPG and propylene had certain fluctuations, and the trading volume and open interest also changed [69]. - **Industry News**: On September 23, 2025, the CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane in October and November were stable. There are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [76][77]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral trend [73]. 15. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC shows a weak - oscillating state. The domestic PVC spot market price decreased steadily, and the spot trading was dull, with Asian PVC October quotes remaining flat month - on - month [79]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC supply side maintains high - level operation, the downstream demand related to real estate is weak, the inventory transfer is not smooth, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The future long - position receiving pressure increases [79]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [80]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil's night - session strengthened significantly, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak - oscillating state, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [82]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [82]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) shows an oscillating market. The futures prices of different contracts declined to varying degrees, and the shipping - rate index also decreased [84]. - **Trend**: No specific trend - intensity description is provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - PX is expected to remain weak in the medium term due to low profits and increased maintenance in downstream PTA, leading to a marginal easing of PX supply [1][11] - PTA's short - term processing fee for 01/05 contracts may rebound, but the unilateral trend remains weak. With limited room for polyester load increase and expected weakening demand in Q4, the medium - term trend may be weak after the end - September restocking [1][11] - MEG's valuation has recovered in the short term, but the medium - term unilateral trend may still be weak. A 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. Supply pressure will gradually emerge, and demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [1][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6684, 4666, 4268, 6344, and 491.8 respectively, with fluctuations of - 1.30%, - 0.98%, - 0.67%, - 0.91%, and - 1.50% [2] - The price differences between different contract months of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC all showed declines compared to the previous day [2] Spot Market - Yesterday's PX CFR China price was 826.67 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars from the previous day; PTA's East China price was 4626 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; MEG's spot price was 4362 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] - PX - naphtha spread was 232.83 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars; PTA processing fee was 107.46 yuan/ton, down 16.52 yuan; short - fiber processing fee was 239.06 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan; bottle - chip processing fee was 82.22 yuan/ton, up 27.77 yuan; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged at - 6.01 dollars [2] Fundamental Data PX - Today's PX price dropped to 827 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars from yesterday. A 70 - ton PX unit in the Northeast is under maintenance for about 45 days, and two 70 - ton PX units in the East are expected to postpone maintenance to next year [4] PTA - As of Thursday, PTA load was 76.8%, and the operating rate was around 82.7%. Today's PTA spot price rose to 4630 yuan/ton [4] MEG - Today's MEG spot average price was 4362 yuan/ton. A 30 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based MEG unit in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down for 20 - 30 days starting October 10. A 60 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based MEG unit in Xinjiang is restarting. As of September 18, the overall operating load of MEG in the Chinese mainland was 74.93% (up 0.02% from the previous period), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based MEG was 79.38% (up 2.69% from the previous period) [5] Polyester - The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn plants remained stable at around 75%. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 91.4%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 60% [6] Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - The comprehensive operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 78%, 66%, and 72% respectively [7] - Downstream raw material inventory decreased. Some factories made rigid - demand purchases, some stocked up until late September or early October, and a few until late October [8] - New orders and shipments in the weaving sector were weak, and high inventory pressured fabric prices. Conventional fabric varieties still had nominal cash - flow losses [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]