中国资产仍具备较强吸引力 中国基金报：对2025年下半年的A股市场怎么看？市场拐点有望在何时出现？ 李崟： 目前市场的估值水平仍处在历史偏低位置，同时宏观处于货币政策与财政政策"双宽 松"阶段，为A股市场向好提供重要支撑。 【导读】 绩优基金经理展望下半年：市场有望震荡向上，掘金大健康、新消费、科技创新 中国基金报记者 方丽 曹雯璟 张燕北 陆慧婧 2025年上半年即将收官。展望下半年市场，基金经理对整体投资机会有何预期？哪些领域更 值得布局？影响股市行情的核心因素有哪些？ 中国基金报采访了七位绩优公募基金经理，分别为 招商基金投资管理一部总监李崟，兴业基 金权益投资部总经理邹慧，永赢基金权益研究部总经理、永赢惠添益基金经理王乾，诺安基 金研究部总经理邓心怡，长城基金国际业务部副总经理、长城港股通价值精选基金经理曲少 杰，平安医药精选股票基金经理周思聪和信澳领先增长基金经理齐兴方 。 整体看，他们对后市较为乐观，认为A股市场整体估值水平仍处在历史偏低位置，货币政策和 财政政策处于"双宽松"阶段，为A股市场向好提供重要支撑；预计下半年市场有望震荡向上， 看好大健康、新消费、科技创新等领域。 王乾： 预计下半年市 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a "golden pit" scenario for the A-share market, indicating a period of volatility without significant downward pressure or a second bottom formation [1][2][3] - The market is currently characterized by a "push-up" pattern of narrow fluctuations, a "barbell" strategy focusing on banks and micro-cap stocks, and a "seesaw" effect between new consumption and new technology [1][2][3] - The report suggests that the recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran are unlikely to escalate into a larger conflict, which could have significant implications for inflation and market stability [1][2] Group 2 - The report outlines three potential scenarios for the second half of the year, drawing parallels to previous years: 2020, 2024, and 2019, each with distinct market characteristics and structural focuses [2][3][4] - The 2020 scenario suggests a bull market driven by synchronized policy responses from the U.S., Europe, and China, with a focus on core growth assets [2][3] - The 2024 scenario anticipates a double bottom formation with a focus on high-dividend strategies, while the 2019 scenario emphasizes a transition between old and new economic drivers, showcasing a dual momentum in consumption and technology [3][4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the A-share market is currently experiencing a significant shift towards new economic drivers, particularly in sectors like AI, military technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to support market resilience [4][5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the A-share market in relation to the Hong Kong market, particularly regarding the AH premium, which has reached a five-year low, indicating a divergence in valuations [34][39][70] - The report also highlights the ongoing transformation in the consumption sector, with new consumption indices outperforming traditional ones, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [57][58][60]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, while the Hong Kong stock market saw an increase, indicating a divergence in market performance driven by various factors including policy expectations and sector performance [1][5]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - A-shares saw a collective drop with over 3600 stocks declining, while sectors like banking and liquor showed resilience [1][3]. - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged, leading to a cooling of expectations for further policy easing in the short term [7][9]. - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is in a phase of risk release and may continue to experience range-bound fluctuations, recommending a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation [4]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has net bought nearly 700 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks this year, accounting for 86% of the total for 2024, with projections suggesting it could exceed 1 trillion HKD for the year [11][13]. - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 17.30% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 14.88% year-to-date, positioning Hong Kong stocks favorably in the global market [16]. - Citigroup forecasts the Hang Seng Index could reach 25,000 points by the end of the year, with potential growth to 26,000 points in 2026, indicating an upside of over 10% [18]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Analysis - The new consumption sector, represented by Pop Mart, faced a nearly 4% decline due to regulatory risks and market saturation, while traditional consumption, particularly liquor, saw gains driven by policy support and recovery expectations [24][28]. - The liquor sector is viewed as a defensive play with valuations at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [29]. - A balanced investment approach is recommended, utilizing a barbell strategy to manage risks and opportunities in both new and traditional consumption sectors [30][32].

2025 年 6 月 18 日 N 型下半场，认准方向，无惧颠簸 ---2025 年股指期货半年度行情展望 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：我们 2025 年年报中 N 字型走势的判断，目前看主要的调整阶段已经出现。下半年，N 字型后半段将持续演绎。 当然，后半段并非单边反弹，内外宏观因素的反复与利多的脉冲式效应，将带来行情走出蛇年"蛇型"的震荡上行走势。但 即使面对重重扰动，方向已明，无惧颠簸。 国 泰 君 安 期 二 我们的逻辑：今年，外部扰动一度带来了宏观预期与股指悲观情绪的大幅宣泄，但外生性的扰动犹如压力测试，给出了小概 率黑天鹅事件下中国经济的下限以及股指的下限。后期出现更大程度黑天鹅的难度无疑更为困难，反而提升了最悲观投资者 的入市信心。后期来看，经济与贸易博弈的反复性，宏观预期仍会出现波动，对股市的传导仍不可避免。但基本面环境的不 确定性强化政策托底与稳市场，也带来看空资金翻多的潜在空间。利率下行环境下，结合资本市场制度优化均提升股市配置 价值，有望持续带来增量资金。最终股指或依靠估值抬升，震荡上行。风格方面，成 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of U.S.-China trade relations and tariff policies on both the U.S. and Chinese economies, with a focus on the implications for various industries and sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Policy Uncertainty**: The frequent adjustments to tariff policies under the Trump administration have increased uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact on U.S. inflation and GDP growth. If personalized tariffs are fully implemented, U.S. inflation could rise by 1.4-2.9 percentage points, potentially slowing GDP growth [1][5][6]. 2. **Impact on China’s GDP**: The tariffs imposed by the U.S. have negatively affected China's GDP growth, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 1.2 percentage points due to a 30% tariff and an additional 0.6 percentage points from a 10% personalized tariff [1][7][20]. 3. **U.S. Economic Forecasts**: The U.S. GDP growth forecast has been slightly downgraded to 1.3% for 2025, with an expected rise in unemployment to 4.4% due to the adverse effects of tariffs [9][10]. 4. **China’s Economic Performance**: China's economy showed a 5.4% growth in Q1 2025, but faces challenges in the second half of the year, including a declining real estate market and low inflation [14][19]. 5. **Future Trade Relations**: The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China have seen some progress, but the lack of formal agreements raises concerns about the sustainability of any improvements [3][6]. 6. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with potential reductions delayed until September, depending on labor market conditions [10][11]. 7. **Inflation Trends**: Inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise in the second half of the year due to the effects of tariffs, with core PCE inflation projected to average 3% [6][8]. 8. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: The technology and consumer sectors are likely to be significantly affected by tariff policies, with potential adjustments in investment strategies to mitigate risks [38][48]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global Market Dynamics**: The global economic landscape is influenced by the U.S.-China trade tensions, with developed markets attracting more foreign investment compared to emerging markets [36][37]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: A focus on defensive sectors such as utilities and technology, particularly in AI, is recommended as a strategy to navigate the current market volatility [48][49]. 3. **Real Estate Market Predictions**: The Chinese real estate market is expected to face delays in recovery due to the ongoing tariff impacts, with sales forecasts adjusted to reflect these challenges [19][20]. 4. **Currency Fluctuations**: The RMB is projected to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.4 against the USD, influenced by trade negotiations and economic performance [25][27]. 5. **Long-term Global Supply Chain Adjustments**: Chinese companies are increasingly relocating production to mitigate tariff impacts, enhancing their global competitiveness [40][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of trade policies, economic forecasts, and sector-specific impacts.

| 资产类别 | 核心逻辑观点 | 配置建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | A股大盘 | > 颠簸与变局将近,以稳应变: | 中国语 | | | ◆ 国内经济基本面:关税反复,总需求回落压力上升,需关注政策发力的对冲效果: | | | | ◆ 资金面:A股成交额回落至"9.24"以来的低位,市场观望情绪上升· | | | | ◆ 政策面:短期内以落实已部署正常政策为主,下半年或有增量政策; | | | | ◆ 外部环境:关税谈判期仅剩月余,不确定性有抬头的风险,且不可预测性较强。 | | | | > 关税豁免期临近结束(7月8日),变盘节点临近,6-7月或先抑后扬:关税豁免期仅剩月余,不确定性 | | | | 抗动或上升,目市场成交活跃度回落,市场临沂变盘。此外,结构上或将出现风格变化,今年以来市场 | | | | 缩圈至更为极致的"杠铃"策略 -- 大盘权重+微盘,即以银行为代表的权重以及以微盛股指数为代表 | | | | 的方向表现更为突出。但这一趋势当前面临风险收益性价比偏低的阻力，导致市场活跃度下降、小微盘 | | | | 题材方向轮动加快,对赚钱效应形成拖露,处于高位的大盘权更、微 ...

浦银国际 2025 年中期宏观策略展望 20250604 摘要 特朗普政府关税政策使美国加权平均关税大幅上升，虽中美日内瓦协议 后有所回落，但仍高于其上任前水平，可能推高通胀，极端情况下影响 可达 1.4 到 2.9 个百分点，或扭转通胀下行趋势。 中美贸易战暂时休战，减少了贸易阻绝影响，但两国间不确定性依然存 在。中国通过产业链调整优化，应对贸易战准备更充分，而美国经济形 势不佳，加剧资本市场信心打击。 维持现状下，预计 2025 年中国经济增速为 4.5%，需配合降准、降息 及额外资金支持。若关税战升级，经济增速可能下滑至 4%，需更大力 度刺激；若关税下降，增速有望接近 5%目标。 美国加征关税对经济影响尚未明显体现，但预计 7 至 8 月影响将更显著， 可能上调全年核心 PCE 同比通胀率预测至 3%。劳动力市场可能恶化， 或成美联储降息触发因素。 美联储对关税影响态度谨慎，除非劳动力数据恶化，否则不会贸然降息。 预计全年降息次数调整为两次 25 个基点。短期内美国政府难以推出显 著刺激政策，财政赤字率预计与今年持平。 Q&A 最新一轮贸易战中，中国准备工作更足，通过产业链调整优化，将低端劳动密 集型 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is likely to maintain a "consolidation" phase in June, with large-cap stocks expected to see a recovery [3][12][13] - Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, with April industrial profits continuing a recovery trend, although both volume and price have declined [12][31] - The "barbell strategy" remains effective in the market, but there has been a notable shift towards a "concentration" phenomenon, with profit effects concentrating in the banking sector and small-cap stocks [32][33] Group 2 - The report highlights that the global supply-demand dynamics for chlorantraniliprole may be reshaped due to production capacity disruptions, with prices already entering a rebound phase [38][40] - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are gaining global influence, with significant participation in the 2025 ASCO annual meeting, showcasing advancements in drug development [38][40] - The report emphasizes the accelerating penetration of autonomous delivery vehicles, with costs approaching or even lower than human labor costs, indicating a significant shift in logistics [43][44] Group 3 - The report notes that the AI industry chain remains robust, with strong demand for computing infrastructure and significant advancements in AI applications, particularly in the context of major tech companies [46][48] - The report suggests that the market is currently in a box range, with risk appetite suppressed by fluctuating global trade policies and concerns over U.S. Treasury yields [48] - The report identifies key sectors to watch, including innovative pharmaceuticals, autonomous driving, and stablecoins, which are expected to have strong catalysts for growth [48]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are experiencing significant outflows, while gold and bonds are emerging as winners amid a weak dollar environment [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Global stock funds faced the largest weekly net outflow since 2025, totaling $9.5 billion, with ETFs losing $3.2 billion and actively managed funds losing $6.4 billion [2][12]. - Bond assets attracted $19.3 billion this week, marking five consecutive weeks of inflows, with emerging market debt seeing $2.8 billion, the highest since January 2023 [2][5]. - Gold funds received $1.8 billion in inflows this week, with an annualized inflow reaching a record $75 billion, surpassing other asset classes [5][23]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Rotation - The weak dollar is driving asset rotation, benefiting cryptocurrencies, gold, emerging market bonds, and real estate investment trusts, which saw a net inflow of $300 million, the largest since October of last year [9][11]. - The dollar is entering a bear market, influenced by tariff policies and a shift in Federal Reserve independence, which supports a bullish outlook for gold and emerging markets [11][23]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The "BIG" strategy (Bonds, International Stocks, Gold) is recommended for investors, as it aligns with the current market dynamics [23]. - The S&P 500 defensive sector's share has dropped to 18%, the lowest since 2000, indicating a high-risk appetite in the market [15][18]. - The "Seven Giants" stocks are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42, suggesting a potential for further gains despite being below historical bubble averages [18][23].

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a significant adjustment due to high crowding in small-cap stocks, leading to a breakdown of the "barbell strategy" among investors [2][5][14]. Market Sentiment - Recent market sentiment has turned negative, with a sharp decline observed on Friday, causing anxiety among investors [2]. - The lack of catalysts since May has contributed to the current market conditions, with the market's upward momentum being limited [6][7]. Historical Context - Historically, small-cap indices have experienced significant pullbacks, with the frequency of these pullbacks increasing from once a year to multiple times a year since 2022 [3][4]. - The volatility in the market has been exacerbated by quantitative funds outperforming subjective funds, leading to increased fluctuations [4]. External Factors - The current geopolitical climate, particularly the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China negotiations, is causing unease in the market [8][11]. - Despite some positive economic data, structural issues remain, particularly in consumer spending, which is heavily reliant on subsidies [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is currently in a typical oscillation phase, with resistance at 3400 points and support from policy measures and liquidity [13]. - The market is expected to remain in this oscillation until a significant catalyst emerges [18]. Potential Catalysts - Three potential catalysts could lead to a market breakthrough: 1. Positive developments in U.S.-China negotiations, such as the cancellation of fentanyl tariffs [15]. 2. Major technological advancements that enhance productivity across domestic industries [16]. 3. Unexpected stimulus policies in real estate, consumption, social security, and finance to boost domestic demand [17]. Investment Strategy - The focus remains on technology as the main investment theme, with current adjustments in the tech sector presenting attractive value opportunities [20][21].