Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite recent market fluctuations, the long-term trend of a slow bull market remains intact, with dividend and technology assets expected to yield excess returns over time [1] - The "barbell strategy" is highlighted as a focus, with 90% allocation to dividend assets and 10% to technology assets, represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index [1] - As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index has decreased by 0.72%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index, which includes 180 large-cap, liquid securities from the Shanghai market, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index account for 26.75% of the index, with notable companies including Kweichow Moutai and Zijin Mining [2] - The performance of individual stocks within the top ten shows varied results, with Kweichow Moutai down by 0.27% and China Ping An up by 0.22% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent short-term market fluctuations do not alter the long-term bullish trend of the stock market, with dividend and technology assets expected to yield excess returns over time [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The long-term investment strategy emphasizes a barbell approach, combining dividend and technology assets, which are anticipated to benefit from increased equity market allocation by residents [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index (000010) is structured with a 90% allocation to dividend assets and 10% to technology assets, making it a suitable choice for equity market investment [1] Group 2: Performance Data - As of October 16, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index rose by 0.45%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as China Life (601628) up 4.37% and Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) up 4.17% [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) increased by 0.33%, with a current price of 1.23 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 1.57% for the month as of October 15, 2025, ranking 1st among comparable funds [1] Group 3: Index Composition - The Shanghai 180 Index includes 180 large-cap, liquid stocks from the Shanghai market, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 26.75% of the index [2] - The top ten stocks by weight include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Ping An (601318), among others [2][4]

Asia Pacific Equity Research 12 October 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China and Hong Kong Financials Navigating tariff turbulence: barbell strategies amid resurgence of US-China trade tensions The escalation of trade tensions between t ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategies of Chen Bo, a fund manager at Shangyin Fund, who successfully manages both dividend and technology-focused funds, demonstrating a unique ability to navigate different asset classes [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Chen Bo employs a "barbell strategy" that combines dividend and technology assets, allowing investors to switch between aggressive and defensive positions based on market conditions [2][17]. - The strategy has performed well during market fluctuations in 2023 and 2024, showcasing its adaptability [2]. - Key investment principles include "small but beautiful Alpha," high Return on Equity (ROE), and a focus on dynamic portfolio rebalancing to optimize risk-reward ratios [3][11][26]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Chen Bo's fund, Shangyin Future Life Flexible Allocation A, has received a dual five-star rating for its performance over three and five years, ranking in the top 10% of its peers [1]. - The fund's performance metrics include a three-year ranking of 101 out of 1718 and a five-year ranking of 249 out of 1488 [1]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of high ROE as a criterion for selecting quality companies, with a long-term view on maintaining above-average returns [3][19]. - Chen Bo believes that both dividend and technology assets benefit from a low-interest-rate environment, which supports their growth potential [2][18]. - The focus on identifying companies with clean balance sheets and high growth potential is central to the investment approach [11][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Chen Bo expresses optimism about the Chinese equity market, anticipating a systemic revaluation of risk assets, which could lead to significant wealth transfer as market conditions improve [27]. - The article suggests that various asset styles, including both dividend and growth stocks, will perform well in a true bull market [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how both technology and dividend assets benefit from a low interest rate environment, despite appearing to be conflicting asset classes [4][18]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Chen Bo employs a "barbell strategy" combining both dividend and technology assets to provide a more adaptable product mix for investors [4][19]. - The investment framework emphasizes three key concepts: "small and beautiful" alpha, high ROE as a standard for excellent companies, and "high cut low" for dynamic portfolio adjustments [5][14]. - The strategy has shown strong performance during market fluctuations in 2023 and 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach [4][16]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Chen Bo's investment philosophy is influenced by notable figures such as Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger, focusing on finding small-cap growth stocks with potential for significant returns [6][12]. - High ROE is considered a critical indicator of a company's long-term profitability and competitive advantage, with a benchmark of 15% ROE being highlighted [21][22]. - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to macroeconomic conditions, distinguishing between bull and bear market strategies [15][31]. Group 3: Market Insights - The current low interest rate environment is expected to favor both growth and dividend-paying stocks, with a shift in focus from traditional assets to those that can provide better returns [19][20]. - The article notes that as the economy transitions, the focus should be on identifying new growth sources within the market, regardless of whether the assets are classified as dividend or technology [28][29]. - Chen Bo predicts a systemic revaluation of Chinese risk assets, suggesting that various styles of stocks will perform well in a true bull market [31].

截至2025年10月15日 09:43，上证180指数(000010)下跌0.10%。成分股方面涨跌互现，信达证券(601059)领涨4.99%，广汽集团(601238)上涨4.38%，小商品城 (600415)上涨3.99%；山东黄金(600547)领跌5.32%，澜起科技(688008)下跌5.07%，德业股份(605117)下跌4.18%。上证180ETF指数基金(530280)下跌0.17%， 最新报价1.21元。拉长时间看，截至2025年10月14日，上证180ETF指数基金近1月累计上涨1.25%。 上证180ETF指数基金紧密跟踪上证180指数，上证180指数从沪市证券中选取市值规模较大、流动性较好的180只证券作为样本，反映上海证券市场核心上市 公司证券整体表现。 近期市场短期震荡，但不改变股市长期慢牛趋势。长期来看，红利类资产和科技类资产有望长期有超额收益，杠铃策略有望再受关注。一方面随着居民资产 配置逐渐加大权益市场的配置，红利类资产有望最先受益；另一方面，科技类资产代表经济发展趋势，长期发展确定性强。上证180指数自带杠铃型策略： 90%红利+10%科技，是配置权益市场的良好品种。不同于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Chinese stocks, particularly in the U.S. market, indicates a potential buying opportunity for investors amid rising trade policy uncertainties and market volatility [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 3.21%, with significant gains in various ETFs, including an 8.71% increase in the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF [2][6]. - Major Chinese stocks such as Alibaba and JD.com saw increases of over 4%, while other companies like NIO and Pinduoduo also performed well [2][6]. - In the Asian trading session, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks initially faced declines but later rebounded, with the ChiNext Index and Hang Seng Tech Index reducing their losses significantly by the end of the trading day [1][2]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Huaxi Securities and GF Securities suggest that the current market volatility is manageable and that the core drivers of the market remain unchanged, indicating a potential for a "slow bull" trend in the long term [3][4]. - UBS forecasts that the MSCI China Index may find strong support around the 74 level, with expectations of increased buying interest if the index declines further [6]. - The report from Morgan Stanley highlights a significant inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, indicating a recovery in global investor confidence [7]. Group 3: Sector and Company Focus - UBS maintains a "barbell strategy," favoring sectors such as AI, brokerage firms, and high-dividend stocks, while also highlighting opportunities in solar energy, chemicals, and lithium [6]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its capital expenditure forecasts for Tencent and Alibaba, reflecting optimism about their growth potential, particularly in AI and cloud services [7][8]. - The upward revisions in target prices for Tencent and Alibaba suggest a bullish outlook, with Alibaba's cloud revenue growth projected to be robust in the coming quarters [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound of Chinese assets, particularly in the context of external uncertainties and trade tensions, suggesting that this may present buying opportunities for investors [2][5][10]. Market Performance - On October 13, U.S. stocks saw a significant rise, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by over 3%, and various ETFs related to Chinese stocks also showing substantial gains, such as the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF rising by over 8% [2][4]. - In the Asian trading session, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks initially faced declines but later recovered, with the ChiNext Index and Hang Seng Tech Index narrowing their losses significantly by the end of the trading day [2][4]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from various securities firms indicate that while short-term volatility may increase due to rising trade tensions, the impact of this shock is expected to be less severe than in April of this year, thanks to improved market mechanisms and investor experience [5][6]. - The "TACO trading" strategy is highlighted, suggesting that short-term declines may provide buying opportunities, with historical data indicating strong support levels for the Wind All A Index [5][6]. Foreign Investment Sentiment - UBS reports that if the MSCI China Index drops to 74, it may find strong support, with investors likely to buy on dips, as the index has already risen by 36% since the lows in April [9][10]. - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions differ from April, with a clearer "loose monetary + loose fiscal" policy stance, which is expected to support the market [5][10]. Sector Focus - UBS maintains a "barbell strategy," favoring AI themes, A-share brokers, and high-dividend stocks, while also looking at sectors like photovoltaic, chemicals, and lithium as part of the "anti-involution" theme [11]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its capital expenditure forecasts for Tencent and Alibaba, reflecting confidence in their growth potential, particularly in AI and cloud services [12]. Foreign Capital Inflows - In September, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market rebounded to $4.6 billion, marking the highest monthly inflow since November 2024, indicating a recovery in global investor confidence towards Chinese assets [11].

摩根大通发表报告指，中美贸易紧张局势升级，借鉴4月关税公告后的股价走势以及对公司基本面的评 估，该行推荐采用杠铃策略(同时配置高风险和低风险资产)。该行认为，具备稳定每股盈利记录且股息 率相对较高的中国银行股，包括中行、建行、交行、工行和招行，在短期内表现将"跑赢大市"。高贝塔 值的个股如富途和渣打集团可能在未来一周表现落后，但这可能创造吸引人的进场机会，基本面依然稳 健。 ...

Trade Tensions and Market Outlook - Current market consensus suggests that a 100% tariff is unlikely to be implemented, with a return to TACO trading expected, making it a matter of time[4] - If the trade war escalates beyond current expectations, technology sectors may experience short-term declines but could recover as market volatility decreases[4] - A barbell strategy focusing on technology (AI/innovative drugs/self-sufficiency) and dividends is recommended for Hong Kong stocks[4] Stock Market Adjustments - Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks are anticipated due to emotional market fluctuations, but declines are expected to be less severe than in April[4] - Potential risks include the higher current position of U.S. stocks, which may make them more sensitive to negative news[4] Commodity Price Movements - Copper prices have seen significant pressure, with a notable decline due to tariff threats, while other non-ferrous metals are less affected[5] - Aluminum prices have shown resilience but may face downward pressure if trade tensions escalate further[6] Supply Chain and Shipping Impacts - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs are expected to have limited impact on European shipping routes but may increase costs for U.S. shipping lines[7] - Oil prices are projected to face a potential decline of 5-6% due to increased inventory levels and market sentiment[7] Industrial and Agricultural Products - The trade war's impact on agricultural products is mixed, with soybeans and certain fresh produce remaining strong, while cotton is expected to weaken[8] - Industrial silicon is anticipated to see a price drop of 4-5% due to high inventory levels and an oversupply situation[13]