行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 15 87 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 : | 寂低价 : | | 收盘价 :涨跌;涨跌幅 | | | :成交量:持仓量 持仓量变化: | | | --- | - ...

Report Overview - **Industry**: Oil and fat [1] - **Date**: August 12, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a two - year high of 2.11 million tons, but the inventory build - up was less than expected, making the report bullish. Palm oil prices rose strongly in the afternoon, with the main contract P2601 hitting a new high for the year. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Its trend lacks a clear driver and follows the market. Due to the abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain high operating rates, and soybean oil inventory may increase, dragging down soybean oil prices. However, the long - term outlook is positive due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, a possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and a recovery in domestic demand. China's three major oils are unlikely to see a significant short - term decline, and it is advisable to hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2509: The previous settlement price was 9012, the opening price was 8974, the highest price was 9236, the lowest price was 8912, the closing price was 8218, with a gain of 206 (2.29%). The trading volume was 299,988, and the position decreased by 5,290. - P2601: The previous settlement price was 9026, the opening price was 9000, the highest price was 9246, the lowest price was 8944, the closing price was 9238, with a gain of 212 (2.35%). The trading volume was 372,378, and the position increased by 52,216. - Y2509: The previous settlement price was 8408, the opening price was 8384, the highest price was 8470, the lowest price was 8352, the closing price was 8456, with a gain of 48 (0.57%). The trading volume was 164,012, and the position decreased by 29,250. - Y2601: The previous settlement price was 8396, the opening price was 8376, the highest price was 8460, the lowest price was 8334, the closing price was 8440, with a gain of 44 (0.52%). The trading volume was 452,116, and the position increased by 20,826. - OI2509: The previous settlement price was 9560, the opening price was 9552, the highest price was 9612, the lowest price was 9512, the closing price was 9588, with a gain of 28 (0.29%). The trading volume was 194,113, and the position decreased by 14,440. - OI2601: The previous settlement price was 9543, the opening price was 9544, the highest price was 9605, the lowest price was 9506, the closing price was 9593, with a gain of 50 (0.52%). The trading volume was 142,492, and the position increased by 22,198 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Bullish on the three major oils in the short - term, hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysia's July Palm Oil Data (MPOB)**: - Production was 1.8124 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons (7.09%) compared to June. - Imports were 61,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (12.82%) compared to June. - Exports were 1.3091 million tons, an increase of 48,100 tons (3.82%) compared to June. - End - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, an increase of 81,700 tons (4.02%) compared to June. - **Malaysia's August 1 - 10 Palm Oil Exports (AmSpec)**: Exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to the same period in July [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][19][26]

Q&A 近期大宗商品市场的表现如何，尤其是能源、金属和农产品方面？ 大宗商品市场近期表现有所改善。能源价格承压，但双胶和金属类价格表现较 好。农产品方面，油脂油料品种出现分化。在关税影响下，铜市场下行空间有 限，COMEX 和 LME 库存压力导致两地价差消除的可能性增加。石油和黄金价 格处于低波动状态，这在历史上不常见。未来，大宗商品在外部冲击下可能会 有交易机会。 关税变数下的油脂油料市场 20250811 摘要 COMEX 和 LME 库存压力增加，可能导致两地价差消除，石油和黄金价 格低波动率预示大宗商品外部冲击下的交易机会。 中美关税谈判后，极端风险虽未升级，但反制政策持续影响全球农产品 市场，北美大豆供应减少与海外豆油棕榈油上涨并存，四季度国内大豆 供需平衡成关键。 海外美豆丰产预期压制价格，国内豆粕面临突破库存压力与四季度偏紧 预期博弈，企业库存突破百万吨，连粕价格震荡上行空间受限。 新季美豆单产创纪录，但受中美关税政策影响，出口明显放缓，中国尚 未采购，出口预测下调，供给端压力增加。 中国大豆进口量增加，5 月至 9 月预计进口约 5,980 万吨，为四季度提 供库存缓冲，若四季度不进口美豆， ...

农产品早报 2025-08-11 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五夜盘美豆小幅下跌，天气较好及美豆缺乏中国买船持续施压，豆粕则因缺乏美豆买船巴西报价强 势获得成本支撑，目前运行在保本价附近。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2910 元/吨，上周豆粕成交 较好，提货小幅回落，下游库存天数小幅上升 0.32 天至 8.37 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 217.75 万吨，本周预计压榨 236.95 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏好。巴西方面，升贴水上涨后近两日稳定。总体来看，美国大豆处于低估 值、供大于求状态，暂未出现明确的方向性驱动，近期持续未有利好提供导致美豆可能试探前低水平。 国内大豆进口成本则处于因 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The strong pattern of oils is difficult to change in the short - term due to factors such as the low inventory of oils in the same period over the years, the expected increase in US biodiesel demand, and the potential insufficiency of palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia. However, the upside space is limited by factors like the annual - level oil production increase expectation, high near - term palm oil production, and uncertain RVO rules. Palm oil is expected to be range - bound, with a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, rapeseed oil fluctuated, while palm oil and soybean oil rose. The net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils oscillated near historical highs. Malaysian palm oil may have slightly increased its inventory in July due to rising production and declining exports. Ex - market rapeseed prices entered a range - bound pattern after a high - level correction. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil widened [11]. - **International Oils**: The USDA July report estimated an increase of about 1.5 million tons in US industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season. Canadian rapeseed farmers' shipments decreased, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade pressured rapeseed prices. India may start a replenishment process, supporting palm oil export demand [11]. - **Domestic Oils**: In July, soybean oil had good sales, while palm oil sales were weak. The total domestic oil inventory was about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, palm oil export willingness will increase, and rapeseed oil will gradually reduce its inventory [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the market is expected to be range - bound. No specific arbitrage strategy is recommended [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of different contracts and the seasonal basis, which helps analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][24][27] 3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [30][31][32][33] - **Palm - growing Region Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - growing regions, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [35][37] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: Charts show the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [43] - **Individual Oil Inventory and Profit**: Charts present the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the spot average crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [46][48][49][51] 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [54] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: Charts display the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [57] 6. Demand Side - **Oils Transaction**: Charts show the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [60] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts present the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [62]

2025/8/8 10:46 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美⾖当周出⼝净增101.29万吨⾼于预期 Anec巴西⼤⾖8⽉出⼝料为815万吨 20250808 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2509 | 华北 | 9060 | 120 | 0 | | | 华东 | 8920 | -20 | -40 | | | 华南 | 8920 | -20 | 0 | | DCE豆油2509 | 山东 | 8500 | 110 | 90 | | | 江苏 | 8670 | 280 | 0 | | | 广东 | 8570 | 180 | -20 | | | 天津 | 8530 | 140 | 20 | | DCE豆粕2509 | 山东 | 2890 | -127 | 5 | | | 江苏 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 广东 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 天津 | 2970 | -47 | -5 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 (美分/蒲式耳) | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 合药 | 前结算价 : | 开 蓝价 : | 成高价 | 最低价 : | 收盘价 :涨跌: | | 张跌幅 | 成交量 : | | 持企業 持企量要化 | | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single - supply source, and the trend depends on Sino - US trade relations and supply - side variables [3]. - The palm oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and high near - term production [10]. - The sugar market is likely to see a price decline in the future, considering increased import supply, high import profit, and expected increase in domestic planting area [12]. - The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, as the Sino - US economic and trade agreement is not finalized, downstream consumption is weak, and the basis is strengthening [15]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the spot price in the peak season is underperforming. The near - month contract may see short - selling, while the mid - term strategy is to short after a rebound [19]. - The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured due to policy intervention. There are different trading opportunities in the near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meadow - **Important Information**: US soybean prices fell slightly on Tuesday night. Sino - US trade negotiations did not benefit US soybean exports, and good weather in North America also put pressure on prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly, and the transaction volume increased. Last week, 2.2539 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2.213 million tons are expected [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is recommended to go long at low cost intervals and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows a decline in June, while production increased in July. The government plans to increase the palm oil replanting project budget from 2026 to 2030 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fats and oils market is supported by fundamentals but has limited upside. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter, but it should be viewed as oscillating [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly oscillating on Tuesday. Spot prices in different regions were stable. As of the end of July, sugar sales and inventory data in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price is likely to decline in the future due to increased import supply and expected increase in planting area [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly oscillating on Tuesday. The US cotton growth data showed good conditions [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is bearish in the short - term due to the unfinalized Sino - US agreement and weak downstream consumption [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Domestic egg prices mainly declined, with sufficient supply and weak demand [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market has a large supply. Near - month contracts may see short - selling, and mid - term short - selling after a rebound is recommended [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured. Different trading opportunities exist in near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22].

Group 1: Market Performance - Palm oil futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 9064 yuan/ton, up nearly 3%, surpassing the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1] - However, the night session saw a decline, bringing prices back below 9000 yuan/ton [1] - The strong performance was attributed to rising production costs and the impact of typhoon weather on import arrivals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Expectations for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue increasing in July, projected to reach 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of over 10% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports showed growth in May and June, with biodiesel consumption exceeding 1 million tons per month since February [2] - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy by 2026 is expected to increase palm oil consumption by nearly 3 million tons [2] Group 3: Tariff Changes and Import Trends - The U.S. reduced the tariff rate on Malaysian palm oil from 25% to 19%, while the EU lowered tariffs by 20-40% [3] - India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% in July to 858,000 tons due to previous price increases, but there remains a demand for stocking ahead of the Diwali festival [3] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic palm oil commercial inventory as of August 1 was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) month-on-month [3] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil rose to 9291.27 yuan/ton, ending a three-day decline [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The palm oil market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to the upcoming MPOB report [4][5] - The 2509 contract may face downward pressure due to ample domestic inventory and supply, while the 2601 contract is anticipated to maintain a strong upward trend driven by seasonal demand and biodiesel policies [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term trend of palm oil remains unchanged despite short - term corrections. In July, CBOT soybean fell below the 1000 mark, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range. There are multiple factors affecting the market, including policies, production, and exports. The soybean oil trend is strong, and long positions at previous low levels of palm oil can be held [7][8]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Main Points - **Market situation**: In July, CBOT soybean fell below 1000, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range [7]. - **External policies**: The public comment period for the biodiesel policy was extended to October 31; the US imposed a 19% tariff on palm oil from India and Malaysia; the EU gave zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons/year of Indonesian palm oil exports, and imposed a 3% tariff on the part exceeding 1 million tons [7]. - **Production areas**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 7 - 14% and production increased by 7%, with the reference price of crude palm oil in August raised to 3864.12 Malaysian ringgit/ton. From May to June, Indonesia's exports increased by 50% and 43% respectively, and the reference price of crude palm oil in August was raised to 910.91 US dollars/ton. The good rate of US soybeans was 68 - 70%, the June crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels, and the D4 credit limit was 629 million gallons. Argentina reduced the export taxes on soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal [7]. - **Domestic situation**: Affected by export news, the spot trading volume of soybean oil increased in July, with a maximum daily trading volume of 100,000 tons. Palm oil was mainly for rigid demand, and new purchase orders were added in August. The inventories of soybean oil and palm oil increased to 1.09 million tons and 600,000 tons respectively, and the rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline to around 700,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: Due to the good growth of US soybeans, high crushing volume in June, uncertainty in the biodiesel policy, and Argentina's reduction of export taxes, CBOT soybeans fell below 1000. Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports declined in July, and the inventory was expected to continue to increase at the end of the month. Indonesia's palm oil exports were good from May to June, production was suppressed by industry supervision, and biodiesel consumption met the plan, with the inventory stopping increasing at the end of May. There were multiple news in the export end. The soybean oil trend is strong, and long positions at previous low levels of palm oil can be held [8]. 3.2 Market Review - In July, CBOT soybean fell below the 1000 integer mark, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US soybeans**: The good rate of US soybeans was 68 - 70%; the June crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels, the D4 credit limit for biodiesel was 629 million gallons (602 million gallons in May). The Brazilian soybean premium rose to 185 cents/bushel, a nearly two - year high. Argentina reduced the soybean export tax from 33% to 26%, and the export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [13]. - **Palm oil**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 7 - 14%, production increased by 7%, and the "reciprocal tariff" imposed by the US on Malaysia was reduced from 25% to 19%. From May to June, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased, and the reference price of crude palm oil in August was raised to 910.91 US dollars/ton. The US imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June increased to 956,000 tons [13]. - **Import and crushing**: In June, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 49.37 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; imported 350,000 tons of palm oil, with a cumulative import of 1.07 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%; imported 150,000 tons of rapeseed oil, with a cumulative import of 1.18 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%; imported 184,500 tons of rapeseed, a month - on - month decrease of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.69%. In July, the soybean crushing operation rate remained high, and the inventory accumulation progress of soybean in oil mills slowed down; the rapeseed crushing operation rate and oil mill inventory were both low [13]. - **Inventory**: By the end of July, the soybean oil inventory increased for three consecutive months to 1.09 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory decreased for more than two months to 710,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous high; the palm oil inventory accumulated to 590,000 tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous low. The total inventory of the three major oils increased to 2.32 million tons, compared with 1.94 million tons in the same period of the previous year [13]. - **Spot price**: In July, the spot prices of oils generally rose. As of July 31, the soybean oil price was 8343 yuan/ton, a 2% increase from the previous month; the palm oil price was 8968 yuan/ton, a 5.61% increase from the previous month; the rapeseed oil price was 9665 yuan/ton, a slight 0.68% increase from the previous month [13]. - **Demand**: In July, the spot trading volume of soybean oil increased, while that of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased significantly. The trading volume of soybean oil was 463,200 tons (381,500 tons in June); the trading volume of palm oil was 10,375 tons (27,449 tons in June); the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 4500 tons (76,000 tons in June) [13]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the part of spread tracking in the text.