Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply of soybeans is expected to remain loose in the medium term, and the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. - For oils and fats, supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increasing demand for soybean oil due to the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and decreasing export volume expectations of Indonesia, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term [5][6][7]. - For sugar, considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the overall outlook is bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, both domestic and international factors suggest that the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [16][17][18]. - For pigs, due to factors such as excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly. The USDA report was postponed due to the government shutdown. On Thursday, domestic soybean meal futures were stable, and the spot price rose slightly by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume from October 4th to 10th was 1.357 million tons. As of October 2nd, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium term, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies, while in the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan, which will increase the demand for palm - based biofuels. Reuters estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September might decrease by 2.5% compared to August. On Thursday, domestic oils and fats rose significantly, mainly stimulated by the news of Indonesia's B50 plan [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories, increasing demand, and decreasing export volume expectations, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips after a stable decline [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,528 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day. In September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The purchase price of seed cotton was lower than last year, and the downstream demand was weak [13]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak domestic demand and high export pressure in the US, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price generally declined. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve significantly, and the market confidence is low [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [18]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The slaughter enterprises had the intention to lower the purchase price, and the pig price was expected to continue to decline slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [21].

油脂异动点评：MPOB 报告或显示 9 月马来西亚棕 榈油库存回落，盘面于节后补涨 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 王泽辉（投资咨询资格编号：Z0019938） 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 电话：020-88818064 邮箱：wangzehui@gf.com.cn 行情导读：国庆节后首日，棕榈油盘面迎来大涨，截至收盘，棕榈油 P2601 合约涨幅达到 4.13%，收 9570 点，盘中一度窜高至 9580 点。 驱动分析一：基本面呈现供降需增局面，9 月产地库存或出现拐点 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）将于 10 月 10 日公布官方月度报告。一项行业调查显示，马来西亚 9 月棕榈油库存将出现 2 月份以来首次下滑，因为出口增长而产量下滑。其中产量预计为 179.4 万吨， 环比下降 3.3%，出口量预计为 142.7 万吨，环比增长 7.7%，库存将降至 214.6 万吨，环比下降 2.5%。 马来西亚棕榈油协会(MPOA)称，2025 年 9 月马来西亚棕榈油产量预估为 181 万吨，环比下降 2.35%， 其中马来西亚半岛的产量环比下降 6.17%，沙巴的产量环比增加 2. ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：B50 路测提前，维持低多及区间操作 豆油：美豆假期反弹，豆油跟随油脂高开 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,546 | 1.65% | 4,560 | 0.33% | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.29 | 0.49% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | / | / | / | / | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | / | / | / | / | | | 菜油主力 | 手 | / | / | / | / | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic driving force for edible oils is insufficient, and future price movements depend on positive factors from the origin. In the short - term, the market will trade within a range. Pay attention to China - US and China - Canada relations, the de - stocking progress of palm oil origins, and the implementation of the B40 plan. Consider opportunities such as the positive spread trading of rapeseed oil 1 - 5 contracts and buying palm oil 01 contracts on dips [1]. - In the near - term, there is still pressure on domestic edible oils. The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and there is a risk of over - inventory for soybean oil. Rapeseed oil has high inventory, and palm oil supply may increase. The demand for edible oils is mainly for essential needs, but the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption [3][5]. - In the long - term, the edible oil market will focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation policy, the supply - demand balance of palm oil origins, the progress of Indonesia's B40 and B50 policies, and China - US and China - Canada relations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In the palm oil market, Malaysia entered the production - reduction season in September, while Indonesia's production is normal. The B40 plan in Indonesia may speed up at the end of the year. For soybean oil, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast, and global soybean supply is abundant. The purchase of Argentine soybeans can make up for part of the US soybean gap, delaying the tight supply of domestic soybean oil. For rapeseed oil, Canada's new - season output is optimistic, but the supply may still be tight due to the uncertainty of China - Canada relations and limited substitution from Australian rapeseed [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9000 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Consider the opportunity of rebound after over - decline. Technically, consider going long on P2601 at low levels [13]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For calendar spread strategies, consider positive spread trading for P1 - 5 at low levels (190, 200). For hedging arbitrage strategies, expect the rapeseed - soybean spread to widen and the soybean - palm spread to narrow [13]. 3.1.3 Industry Client Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8400, 9700 - 10300, and 8900 - 9500 respectively [15]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high inventory can short Y2601 to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy Y2601 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about over - inventory can short Y2601 [15]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as spreads between different contracts and varieties [18][19][20][21]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 increased by 7.3% month - on - month. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil mills decreased for the second consecutive week. The operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills decreased during the holiday [22][23]. - **Negative Information**: On September 26, the commercial inventory of three major edible oils in China was 240 million tons, still at a high level in recent years. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 3.2% [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Palm oil transactions improved slightly, soybean oil transactions decreased, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 29 domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and progress on the US small - refinery exemption re - allocation decision [30]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: This week, the edible oil market oscillated and sorted. Rapeseed oil was relatively strong, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated. Some speculative funds left the market cautiously. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and the downward space is limited, expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of palm oil after over - decline [31]. - **Capital Trends**: Key profitable positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. Palm oil prices are at a medium - low level historically, with decreasing positions and a weak short - term trend. Soybean oil prices are declining with decreasing positions and increasing negative trend. Rapeseed oil prices are rising, with significant position fluctuations and cautious market sentiment [31]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The near - month term structure of edible oils is steeper. The OI1 - 5 positive spread continues to strengthen due to the expected tight supply of rapeseed oil at the end of this year and in the first quarter of next year. P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 positive spreads are mainly consolidating [33]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the basis of major edible oil contracts was weak. High domestic inventory and weak demand led to a continued weak basis [51]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads strengthened. Rapeseed oil supply in the fourth quarter is not optimistic, while the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil has eased [55]. - **Foreign Market**: The domestic market followed the foreign market to oscillate and then weaken. Uncertainties in China - US and China - Canada relations and the closure of Argentine exports limited further downward movement. CBOT soybean oil managed funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users increased their positions slightly [57]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread is slightly lower but still at a high level, and the BOHO spread is at a low level. The overall cost of bio - fuel production remains high due to the low - price competition of Argentine soybean oil [65]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The import cost has slightly decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed slightly. However, due to weak domestic demand and inventory pressure, the probability of a significant increase in purchasing is low [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to drought in the first quarter and floods in September. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decline [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The procurement intention of traders is low. The monthly purchase volume in September and October is about 200,000 tons. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to decline further. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of soybeans in September and October is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, the soybean crushing volume may decrease in December, and the supply of soybean oil may be tight if US soybean purchases are difficult [72][73]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. High inventory will be gradually reduced in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not improve, supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of three major edible oils is large, and demand is weak. The Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption, but overall terminal demand is still weak compared to last year [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal market is currently in a weak and volatile state. In the short - term, there may be a downward trend due to large domestic supply pressure and no clear positive factors in the cost side. In the medium - term, the overall global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. [2][3][4] - The oil market is in a state of current supply - demand balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is expected to be in a medium - term volatile and upward trend, and the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization. [6][8] - The sugar market is generally bearish in the long - term, but in the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see due to technical factors. [9][10] - The cotton market is influenced by both bearish factors such as weak downstream demand and bullish factors like low domestic inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [13][14] - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [16][17] - For pigs, the short - term trend is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, US soybeans fluctuated with low valuation and few positive factors. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the price in East China at 2,900 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1892 million tons, and the port soybean inventory increased to 9.385 million tons, expected to peak but remain at a high level. This week, the expected crushing volume is 1.76 million tons. [2] - Argentina has temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal after achieving its export target, which still has a large impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazil's soybean planting progress is relatively fast, reaching 3.2% as of last Thursday, and the premium is temporarily stable. [3] Strategy View - The domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's export tax has driven the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. Currently, the soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. [4] Oil Market Information - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but then increased month - on - month in the subsequent periods. The palm oil production decreased month - on - month in the same period. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months and reach about 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year. [6] - On Monday, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. The recent decline in oils is due to weak palm oil exports from Malaysia and short - term price cuts in Argentina. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. [6] Strategy View - Factors such as low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decrease in exportable volume of palm oil in Southeast Asia support the oil price center. The oil market is in a state of current balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is recommended to buy on dips and stabilization in the medium - term. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spot price of sugar in some regions decreased or remained stable. [9] - Consultancy firm StoneX predicts that the sugar cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.4 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons year - on - year, and that in India is expected to be 32.3 million tons, an increase of 6.2 million tons year - on - year. [9] Strategy View - Affected by factors such as the record - high sugar imports in China in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the sugar price is generally bearish. However, from a technical perspective, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day. [9][10] Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,350 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also decreased. [12] - As of September 26, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills were lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year. [13] Strategy View - Although it is the peak consumption season, the downstream operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, leading to a downward trend in cotton prices. However, the domestic cotton inventory is at a historical low, which may provide support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas decreased to 3.45 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average. It is expected that the egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in most areas today. [16] Strategy View - The spot price is expected to decline further. The near - month contracts of the futures market are weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. The supply side may improve marginally, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 12.58 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan decreased by 0.28 yuan to 11.79 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce prices weakened, and the pig supply may be stable or decrease. The demand is at a high level and shows no sign of further increase. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively balanced today, and the price will stop falling and stabilize. [19] Strategy View - The short - term trend of the pig market is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the US soybean market faces dual impacts of yield and exports. Yield reduction is likely, but the extent is uncertain. The outcome of China-US economic and trade talks in November will significantly affect US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are expected to continue to oscillate in a wide range between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [1][22][113]. - South American soybean exports and planting progress may impact the international soybean market in the fourth quarter. Brazilian soybean exports to China may range from 1000 - 1200 million tons. Brazilian basis fluctuations are crucial, and the possibility of a "dry south and wet north" situation due to La Nina should be monitored [23][37][113]. - Although the arrival of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, supply concerns may ease with effective supply supplements. Domestic soybean meal demand is expected to increase steadily, and inventory reduction may start in November. The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [1][54][113]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply of the US soybean oil market is expected to increase significantly, and the inventory will increase steadily. The market is waiting for the implementation of energy policies, and the downward space for US soybean oil may narrow [2][67][114]. - Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend in the fourth quarter. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in October. Export may be temporarily affected, but the tight supply - demand balance sheet of Indonesian palm oil provides support [2][85][114]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand differentiation of domestic oils is prominent. The supply of soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [2][111][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Market Review - In the third quarter, CBOT soybeans showed a range - bound oscillation, with a reverse "N" shape. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. International oils showed a differentiated trend, with US soybean oil rising and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil rising [5][6]. - From June 30 to September 25, 2025, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil declined, while Malaysian palm oil, Dalian soybean oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil prices increased [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Protein Meal 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Uncertain Supply - Demand Pattern Due to Poor Exports - The yield of US soybeans may be adjusted downward in the USDA report after October, and the export situation depends on China - US economic and trade talks. If China restarts purchasing US soybeans, exports may remain stable; otherwise, they may be further reduced [11][14][18]. - US soybean crushing remains strong, but the room for further increase in crushing volume is limited, and the 2025/26 annual crushing demand is likely to remain at the current level [16][17]. 3.2.2 South American Soybeans: Increased Market Turbulence Due to Export and Weather - In 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record high of 110 million tons. Argentina's soybean export policy is volatile, and the possibility of a second export tax cancellation cannot be ruled out [23][27][30]. - The probability of La Nina occurring from October to December has increased, which may lead to a "dry south and wet north" situation. Brazil's soybean planting has started, but there are weather risks in some areas [32][33]. - Brazilian basis is affected by China - US tariff policies. If China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian basis may decline; otherwise, it may rise [36][37]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal: Supply Concerns May Ease, but Cost - Driven Factors Remain - With the increase in Argentine soybean imports, the supply of domestic soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to increase, and supply concerns may ease [40]. - Domestic soybean meal demand has increased steadily, but there is a suspicion of over - consuming future demand. The inventory inflection point has not yet arrived, and inventory reduction may start in November [45][48]. - The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level in November, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [49][54]. 3.3 Third Part: Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil: Awaiting Policy Implementation with Uncertain Policy Outlook - The demand for US soybean oil has remained high in 2025, but the implementation of biodiesel policies in October is crucial for future demand [59][61]. - From October, US soybean oil will enter an inventory - building cycle, and the inventory will increase steadily [61]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil: Early Entry into Production Reduction Cycle, Supply Concerns Boost the Market - In the fourth quarter, Southeast Asian palm oil will transition to a production reduction cycle. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in Malaysia [70][75]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil is uncertain due to India's increased purchase of Argentine soybean oil. However, Indonesia's tight supply - demand balance sheet provides support [77][79]. - In the fourth quarter, the Southeast Asian palm oil market will enter a de - stocking stage, and Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend [84][85]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oils: Supply - Demand Structure Differentiation, Accelerated Rapeseed Oil Inventory Reduction - As of September 20, the inventory of domestic oils has not yet started to decline. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of oils is relatively abundant, but there are significant differences among varieties [88]. - Domestic oil demand has declined. In the fourth quarter, the demand for oils may enter a small peak, but expectations should not be too high [91]. - The supply of domestic soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [95][100][108]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - The conclusions are consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the uncertainties and trends in the protein meal and oil markets in the fourth quarter [113][114][115].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - For the soybean meal market, the Sino - US talks have sent positive signals but no final results yet, and the US biodiesel policy has not met market expectations, dragging down US soybean prices. Domestically, the supply of soybean and soybean meal is relatively loose, and the market is focusing on Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - For the corn market, as new corn gradually enters the market, the supply will increase, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing sentiment and the volume of new grain [4] Group 3: Summary by Catalog - Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The soybean meal 2601 contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (+1.26%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract closed at 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+2.05%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, soybean meal spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis decreased by 27. In Fujian, rapeseed meal spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the spot basis decreased by 19 [1] - Market Information: Brazil's expected soybean exports in September 2025 are 715 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but higher than last year. The exports from January - September 2025 are expected to reach 9.525 billion tons, and about 1.6 billion tons from October - December [1] Market Analysis - Sino - US talks have positive signals but no final results, and the US biodiesel policy has affected US soybean prices. Domestically, the supply of soybean and soybean meal is loose, and the market focuses on Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Group 4: Summary by Catalog - Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The corn 2511 contract closed at 2165 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.05%); the corn starch 2511 contract closed at 2474 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price remained unchanged, and the spot basis decreased by 1. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price remained unchanged, and the spot basis decreased by 5 [3] - Market Information: From September 1 - 19, 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 4.73 million tons, with an average daily export of 305,807 tons (up 3.1% year - on - year). The export amount was 940 million US dollars, and the average export price was 198.1 US dollars/ton (up 1.8% year - on - year). In August 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 6.849 million tons (up 13.0% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply of corn is relatively loose as new corn in the Northeast and North China is gradually on the market. Traders are pessimistic about the future. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 9 月 26 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 华东转三级菜油：现货：OI2601+250，10-11 月：OI2601+260。华东转 ...

Report Information - Reported Industry: Fats and Oils [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - East China converted third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 250, from October to November it's OI2601 + 260. East China converted first - grade rapeseed oil: In October it's OI2601 + 360, from November to December it's OI2601 + 380. - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: From December to January it's 01+220, from December to February it's 01+240, from January to March it's 01+200, from April to July it's 05+250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes are temporarily stable: 18 - degree is 01+140 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree is 01+120 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse), 28 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] Core Viewpoints - The Argentine government temporarily cancelled tariffs on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion. The fats and oils market rebounded after a sharp decline. Argentina may increase soybean exports to China by 2 - 4 million tons after the tax cut, advancing supply. Domestic fats and oils supply is sufficient this year, but there may be a temporary shortage in Q1 next year. - Near - term rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, with concentrated supply. Traders are holding prices, and the basis quote is rising. Monitor China - Canada trade and rapeseed supply. - For the 01 contract, it has both upside pressure and downside support, so expect range - bound trading. For the 05 contract, consider low - buying and rolling long positions. In the long - term, fats and oils are bullish due to biodiesel policies. Monitor China - US negotiations and biofuel policies [8] 2. Industry News - SPPOMA data shows that from September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with FFB yield down 6.57% and OER down 0.25% month - on - month. - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than 40,800 tons in the same period last month. - SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease from August 1 - 20 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [11][13][14][21][26][27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: None - **Bullish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Corn, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: None - **Bearish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bearish (★☆☆)**: Pig, Egg [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: None Core Views - The market is waiting for the performance of domestic soybean purchases later this month, and the overall supply of new soybean crops this year is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the soybean import trade [2]. - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean market is waiting for the purchase performance later this month, and the overall supply of new crops is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the import trade [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Pig - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. Egg - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9].