Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Hold (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean, Egg [1] Core Views - The soybean futures price has dropped rapidly from its high and is in an adjustment phase. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and the short - term trend of imported soybeans is expected to be slightly stronger [2]. - The Trump administration's potential policy delay on biofuel incentives may change the demand source of biodiesel raw materials, narrowing the price difference between global and US vegetable oils. The strong US diesel market has a marginal spill - over effect on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out [3]. - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, and the strategy is bearish [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract price of soybean futures has dropped rapidly from the high with a reduction in positions. The mid - week auction of soybeans by Sinograin was fully sold at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and short - term attention should be paid to the spot and policy aspects of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Trump administration may delay the policy of reducing biofuel incentives. The development trend of biodiesel is still supported, and the price difference between global and US vegetable oils is expected to narrow. The strong US diesel market has an impact on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out. Attention should be paid to the final US biodiesel policy [3]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure. The import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in October decreased year - on - year. Due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, the strategy is bearish [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. Live Hogs - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9].

消息面 监测显示，11月19日，12、1月船期24度棕榈油进口CNF报价1060美元/吨、1080美元/吨，周环比上涨 10~22美元/吨。 东海期货： 马来西亚衍生品交易所（BMD）毛棕榈油期货继续上涨，延续了上周五以来的强势，主要受到豆油走 强的提振。不过需求担忧以及令吉汇率走强，令棕榈油脱离盘中高点。国内棕榈油累库增加，现货价格 承压，短期棕榈油维持宽幅震荡。 11月19日：全国港口24度棕榈油成交量800吨，环比上个交易日减少33.33%。 机构观点 国投安信期货： 从美国柴油市场看，美国柴油产量低于平均水平，柴油出口强劲，国内需求也好于平均水平，预计美国 柴油中期会表现为供需偏紧的格局，预计美国柴油市场的强劲对植物油有边际溢出效应。近期国际豆油 走强,国际市场上豆棕价差也在走强，棕榈油也开始主动跟随。棕榈油马来西亚的短期高频数据显示供 需面偏弱。大豆国内近端压榨利润仍然偏差，国内表现出豆油强于豆粕。随着市场开始博弈美国生物柴 油政策存在变化，从美国产品和原料优先转为仍可以延续政策寻求进口，预计棕榈油边际上有所改善， 预计棕榈油单边走势阶段性见底的概率偏大。持续关注美国生物柴油政策最终落地。 据外媒报 ...

国内棕榈油从近期的横盘区间跳升，表现转强，豆棕价差从高位回调，显示出棕油开始强于豆油。美豆油表现偏强，一方面市 场对美国生物柴油政策预期偏乐观，一方面美国柴油市场表现偏强、美国柴油产量低于平均水平，柴油出口强劲。国内需求也 好于平均水平，预计美国柴油中期会表现为供需偏紧的格局，预计美国柴油市场的强劲对植物油有边际溢出效应。随着豆油的 走强,国际市场上豆棕价差也在走强,棕榈油也开始主动跟随。棕榈油马来西亚的短期高频数据显示供需面偏弱。大豆国内近 端压榨利润仍然偏差，国内表现出豆油强于豆粕。由于豆油表现偏强，我们预计棕榈油会被带动，基于这个国素，预计棕榈油 单边走势阶段性见底的概率偏大。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ★☆☆ | | | 豆粕 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱油 | ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the US energy policy and further news about Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. The strategy is mainly to stay on the sidelines. For the far - month P05 contract, there may be an opportunity to go long as palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year. It is also advisable to be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [2]. - The current core contradictions in the oil market include the digestion of palm oil inventory pressure in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: In the October MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by over 11%, inventory by over 4%, and exports by over 18%. With the entry into the production - reduction season, the cost - performance of palm oil is expected to increase. The B50 plan in Indonesia has uncertainties, and there are also limitations on production due to the transfer of plantation ownership [1]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oils**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The resumption of US soybean purchases may increase domestic supply pressure. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be tight due to the less - optimistic China - Canada talks [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient in the short term, but there will be a slow destocking at the end of the year, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. The price ranges are P2601 [8400 - 9000], Y2601 [8000 - 8500], and OI [9300 - 10000]. Pay attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil [15]. - **Technical analysis**: Go long on the P05 contract on dips, and be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [15]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Consider a reverse spread for P1 - 5. Be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, and for rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10300 [18]. - **Hedging strategies**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills can short soybean oil futures to prevent losses from high - inventory imports [20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: In October, the US soybean crushing volume far exceeded market expectations, reaching a record high [24]. - **Negative information**: The November USDA report was slightly negative for the US soybean market. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed oil increased [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Domestic Market - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment is bearish, the downward space is limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season in producing areas [31]. - **Fund movement**: Positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil had a slight increase in short positions from foreign investors and retail investors, and weak long - position confidence. Soybean oil's positions changed little, and foreign short - positions in rapeseed oil decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil's long - positions decreased due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [32]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The soybean and rapeseed oil markets showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. The palm oil market had a complex structure, with 05 being the strongest and 09 relatively weak [33][36]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to be weak due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [33]. - **Spread structure**: The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils strengthened, and the rapeseed - soybean spread rebounded slightly. Rapeseed oil remained strong in the sector, while palm oil was the weakest [53]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was mainly in shock. The negative factors in palm - oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted. The US soybean market was affected by the slightly negative November USDA report. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and the supply gap of rapeseed oil made it stronger than palm oil [56]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The price of palm oil in producing areas was weakly volatile, and the production cost of bio - fuel decreased slightly. The cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a multi - year low [64]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As China is a net importer of palm oil, the import profit changed slightly with the low - level consolidation of the origin price, and there were few new purchases under the negative basis [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Deduction - **Palm oil**: With the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure is not expected to increase, and the driving force from the producing areas may be reflected in the 05 contract [72]. - **Soybean oil**: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, the crushing volume may decrease, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [72]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current domestic inventory is high, but it will gradually destock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship does not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [72]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Deduction - The inventory pressure of the three major oils is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. Although the fourth quarter is a traditional consumption peak season, the boost to the market after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand is expected to remain weak [74].

【国富豆系研究周报】USDA下调美豆出口预估，关注出口需求变化 20251117 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月17日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 国量的货 目录 | r 行情回顾 . | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 | | 3. 豆油 5 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 巴西大豆产区天气 7 | | 2. 阿根廷大豆产区天气 | | 国际供需 . in | | 1. 美国大豆 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 19 | | 国内供需 四、 | | 1. 豆油供需 | | 2. 豆粕供需 26 | | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 五、 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 30 | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. 大豆 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至11月14日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1122.50 美 分/蒲式耳,较前一周上涨0.47%。本周CBOT 大豆价格上涨,主要因市场 预期中美贸易关系或改善以及市场担忧巴西南部不利天气或影响部分 ...

Report Title - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: MPOB Malaysia Palm Oil Continued to Build Inventory in October, Focus on High-Frequency Data from Producing Areas 20251117" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil supply and demand both increased in October, with the ending inventory reaching 2464000 tons, and the current inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to high-frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand from major consuming areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [7]. - The price of BMD Malaysia palm oil rose this week, mainly driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance of Malaysia palm oil in the first 10 days of November limited the increase in the futures price [7]. - The price of DCE palm oil fluctuated slightly lower this week, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory during the week, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysia Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the BMD Malaysia palm oil 01 contract closed at 4125 ringgit/ton, up 0.36% from last week. The price increase was driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance in the first 10 days of November limited the increase [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, higher than the 5-year average. The SPPOMA estimated that the production in the first 10 days of November decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, far exceeding market expectations. However, high-frequency data from three major institutions showed that the exports in the first 10 days of November were expected to decrease by 9.5% - 49.53% month-on-month [7]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8644 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from last week. The price fluctuated slightly lower, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. - This week, the foreign quotation decreased, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed, and the inversion range of the futures soybean-palm oil price spread continued to repair [12]. 2. Producing Area Weather 2.1 Malaysia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of southern Peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sarawak, and southwestern Sabah where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 75mm [14]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [16]. 2.2 Indonesia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra where precipitation was 15 - 100mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm. In Kalimantan, except for a small part of western and northern areas where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [19]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of central and western Sumatra where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB October Report - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in October increased by 4.44% month-on-month to 2464000 tons, higher than the same period last year and the 5-year average [23]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, and imports decreased by 53.73% month-on-month to 36000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysia Palm Oil November Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 448328 tons, a 9.5% decrease from the same period last month; ITS data showed that exports were 459320 tons, a 12.28% decrease; SGS data showed that exports were expected to be 190533 tons, a 49.53% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and production decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [34]. 3.3 Other Important News - India's palm oil imports in October were 602381 tons, lower than 833017 tons in September. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [36]. - Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of a biodiesel blend fuel (B50) containing 50% palm oil. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 blend fuel in the second half of next year [36]. - Indonesia will start the B50 biodiesel road test in early December, and the government is considering whether to implement the B50 mandatory standard only in specific fields. The government plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, an increase from this year's 40% blending ratio [38]. - Indonesia's palm oil production from January - September this year was more than 43 million tons, a 11% year-on-year increase; exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year-on-year increase [38]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [38]. - CIMB Securities expects that due to a 10% month-on-month decrease in exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month-on-month to 2.57 million tons in November; production is expected to decrease by 8.0% month-on-month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [38]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed [39]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions decreased. As of the week of November 14, the total weekly palm oil transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) were 3403 tons, a decrease of 2597 tons from last week, a decline of 43% [42]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - Palm oil inventory increased. As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from last week and a 10.86% increase from 538800 tons in the same period last year [44][45]. 5. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Price Spreads 5.1 Basis, Month Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Month Spread**: Relevant data charts of palm oil basis and month spread in different regions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [48][51][52]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: Relevant data charts of international and domestic soybean-palm oil, rapeseed-palm oil, sunflower-palm oil price spreads, and POGO spreads are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [54][56][57]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - Relevant data charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and 01 contract positions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [59]. 5.3 FOB Quotes - Relevant data charts of Malaysia and Indonesia's 24-degree palm oil FOB quotes are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [62]

棕榈油周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 菜油表现强势 棕榈油震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨15收于4125林吉特/吨，涨幅 0.36%；棕榈油01合约跌16收于8644元/吨，跌幅0.18%； 豆油01合约涨72收于8256元/吨，涨幅0.88%；菜油01合 约涨390收于9923元/吨，涨幅4.09%；CBOT豆油主连涨 0.85收于50.48美分/磅，涨幅1.71%；ICE油菜籽活跃合 约涨7收于645.7加元/吨，涨幅1 ...

目前，棕榈油价格在经历了七八月份的一波上涨后，从 8 月 20 日开始进入震 荡下跌阶段，主要原因包括马来西亚和印尼市场产量增加、库存上升以及印度 市场部分被美豆油和阿根廷豆油抢占。中国市场方面，棕榈油与豆油之间的价 差也被大幅挤压，导致买兴不佳。在今年上半年达到绝对高点后，棕榈油价格 有所回调，目前主力合约已跌破 8,600 元，但在此位置有一定支撑。 从季节性 产量来看，马来西亚和印尼通常在 4 月至 10 月为增产季，而 11 月开始进入减 产季，因此未来几个月产量可能会下降。此外，印尼政府计划在 2026 年下半 年正式实施 B50 生物柴油政策，这将增加对棕榈油的需求。目前国际市场上 CPO 与豆油价差已达 45~50 美元，使得 CPO 具有一定性价比，不排除印度会 积极补库。 天气方面，预计 2026 年可能出现拉尼娜现象，这将导致干旱并影 响产量。中国华南地区 24 度现货棕榈油与豆油现货几乎同价，也具有一定性 棕榈油周期展望 20251114 摘要 印尼计划 2026 年下半年实施 B50 生物柴油政策，预计将显著增加棕榈 油需求，但短期内新增产能有限，可能导致供应缺口，需关注政策实施 进度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and more. It covers multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, and also includes international and domestic economic data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. The ten - day percentage changes of several currency exchange rates are also provided [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may last until the end of this week, and the southern part may return to dry weather next week. In Argentina, precipitation is expected to increase this weekend, but the precipitation potential is small in the second half of November [4]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Indonesia's palm oil production from January to September this year exceeded 43 million tons, with a 11% year - on - year increase, and exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The government is considering expanding the oil palm plantation area by 600,000 hectares next year and will start B50 biodiesel road tests in early December, planning to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, which may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 [6][7]. - India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, lower than in September. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [8]. - USDA export sales reports show the export sales, shipments, and new sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil as of September 25 [8][9]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.6016 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, with a 3.6% increase in the sown area and a 0.1% decrease in the yield per hectare [10]. - Brazil exported 942,502 tons of soybeans, 433,164 tons of soybean meal, and 1,602,174 tons of corn last week (November 2 - 8), and plans to export 1,361,184 tons of soybeans, 594,397 tons of soybean meal, and 1,600,468 tons of corn this week (November 9 - 15) [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a three - day decline, with all ship - type freight rates rising [11]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 13, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 30,720 tons, a 53% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased by 65,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate of oil mills was 60.97%, a 1.85% increase from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 51.6%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the October CPI report as scheduled due to the government shutdown [15]. - The IEA monthly report predicts that the total global oil supply in 2026 will reach 108.7 million barrels per day, and the supply of OPEC+ will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with the global oil supply exceeding demand by 4.09 million barrels per day [16]. - The eurozone's industrial output monthly rate in September was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.7% [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 13, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0865, up 32 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On November 13, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.722 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 9.89 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 14.694 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 0.91 billion yuan [22].