Report on the Oilseed Industry Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybean meal remains ample due to sufficient imports, high oil - mill operation rates, and stable production. In the demand side, the high inventory of downstream feed enterprises and losses in pig farming have weakened purchasing power. Seasonal factors also play a role as demand enters a slow season. Overseas, the expected high - yield of South American soybeans has put downward pressure on US soybean prices, leading to lower import costs in China. Overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is tight as domestic rapeseed stocks have hit historical lows, and press volumes have stagnated. The delay in Australian rapeseed arrivals has exacerbated the situation. On the demand side, the winter season has reduced aquaculture demand, and the expanded price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal has diminished the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal. However, the potential improvement in China - Canada relations may increase future imports [7] Supply - Demand Analysis Soybean Meal - **Supply**: Abundant imports, high oil - mill operation rates, and stable production result in high inventory levels [2] - **Demand**: High inventory of feed enterprises, losses in pig - farming, and seasonal factors lead to weak demand [2] - **Overseas**: Expected high - yield in South America, USDA's inventory increase and export decrease forecasts for US soybeans affect the market [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: Low domestic rapeseed stocks, stagnant press volumes, and delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals cause supply shortages. Future imports may increase due to potential policy changes [7] - **Demand**: Reduced aquaculture demand in winter and limited substitution demand due to price differences [7] Report on the Edible Oil Industry Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: High weekly production from imported soybean crushing, declining inventory, and the start of Spring Festival stocking support the spot market. Recovering catering consumption and increased small - package oil purchases are positive factors, but the weaker - than - expected terminal stocking has limited the upside. Overseas bio - diesel news has provided external support [37] - **Palm Oil**: High inventory in Malaysia and domestic ports creates supply pressure. Although domestic demand for edible and industrial use has increased, high inventory restricts price movements. Policy uncertainties from Indonesia and the US add to the complexity [37] - **Rapeseed Oil**: A significant drop in domestic rapeseed crushing and production, but expected Australian arrivals will ease supply concerns. Pre - Spring Festival stocking has supported short - term demand, but high prices have dampened purchasing enthusiasm [37] Supply - Demand Analysis Soybean Oil - **Supply**: High weekly production from imported soybeans and decreasing inventory [37] - **Demand**: Recovering catering consumption and increased small - package oil purchases, but weak terminal stocking [37] - **External**: Overseas bio - diesel news provides support [37] Palm Oil - **Supply**: High inventory in Malaysia and domestic ports [37] - **Demand**: Increased edible and industrial demand, but high inventory restricts prices [37] - **Policy**: Uncertainties from Indonesia's and the US's bio - diesel policies [37] Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: Decreased domestic production, but expected Australian imports will ease supply [37] - **Demand**: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices limit purchases [37] - **Policy**: Potential increase in imports due to improved China - Canada relations and uncertain overseas bio - diesel policies [37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a divergent trend. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with a possible inventory inflection point, and may rise in the medium - to - long - term due to seasonal production cuts and improved fundamentals. - Soybean oil has a loose global supply, but domestic inventory is being depleted due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. - Rapeseed oil is restricted by a relatively loose supply - demand pattern in Canada. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China. In the medium - to - long - term, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship will determine the price trend [28]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Spot Price Trends - From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil's main contract decreased by 0.09% from 8682 to 8674, and the spot price decreased by 0.23% from 8600 to 8580. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil's main contract increased by 0.23% from 9042 to 9063, while the spot price decreased by 1.37% from 9942 to 9806. - The futures closing price of soybean oil's main contract increased by 0.28% from 7994 to 8016, and the spot price increased by 0.67% from 8308 to 8364 [4]. 3.2 Basis Changes - As of January 15, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 426 yuan/ton (an increase of 62 yuan/ton from the previous week), 978 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton), and 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton) respectively. - As of January 16, 2026, the YP spread was - 658 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory Trends - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 73.60 million tons (an increase of 0.22 million tons), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 102.51 million tons (a decrease of 5.59 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 176.31 million tons (a decrease of 5.47 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 191 yuan/ton (a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week). As of December 2025, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January 2026 decreased by 18.24% [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 8.028 billion tons (a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major oil mills was 7.1312 billion tons (an increase of 2.87 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 53% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 481.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2218.0 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.0 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1300 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 403.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 1.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the biofuel blending quota in early March and abandon the import penalty plan. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade negotiation is advancing, and the market is concerned about the progress of tariff relaxation. - **Foreign Factors**: The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report shows that the US's 2025/26 soybean production forecast is 4.262 billion bushels, and the export forecast is 1.575 billion bushels. As of December, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January decreased by 18.24%, while exports increased by 17.5% - 18.6%. - **Import and Pressing**: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil and rapeseed oil prices falling and soybean oil prices rising [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On January 13, the futures prices of beans and oils showed a divergent trend. The prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal were oscillating weakly, while the prices of oils were oscillating strongly. The soybean meal market dropped significantly due to the unexpectedly bearish US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report. The short - term soybean meal futures price will run weakly in an oscillating manner. The oil market showed a trend of rising and then falling. The short - term palm oil market sentiment has improved, with the futures price oscillating strongly. The futures prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil may enter a high - level oscillating consolidation phase [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **USDA January Supply - Demand Report**: In the 2025/26 season, US soybean production and inventory were increased, and exports were decreased. Brazilian soybean production was raised by 3 million tons. US soybean production was unexpectedly increased, exports were reduced by 60 million bushels, and inventory was increased by 60 million bushels. The estimated production was 4.262 billion bushels, with the harvest area increased to 80.4 million acres. The average yield per acre remained at 53.0 bushels. Soybean crushing was increased to 2.57 billion bushels, exports were reduced to 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels. The annual farm average price was lowered to $10.20 per bushel [7] - **Brazilian Weather**: A water vapor corridor is extending from northern to southeastern Brazil. Rainfall is expected to be unstable, especially in some areas. The weather in Mato Grosso is currently favorable for harvesting but will change. A new weather system will form in northern Argentina and bring rainfall to Brazil [8] - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 55% week - on - week and 13% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 17,934,546 tons, accounting for 41.8% of the annual export target [9][10] - **US Quarterly Inventory Report**: As of December 1, 2025, the inventories of US soybeans, corn, wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats were all higher than the previous year. The implied consumption from September to November 2025 showed different trends for different crops [11] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of January 8, 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 0.6%, exceeding last year's 0.3%. The harvest in Mato Grosso was the most active. The estimated production for the 2025/26 season is a record 180.4 million tons [12] - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions showed different changes compared to the previous day [12][14] - **Oil Mill Pressing Profits**: The pressing profits of oil mills in different locations and using different types of soybeans (domestic and imported) varied [15] 2. Related Charts - The content provides charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面 pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but specific data and analysis are not elaborated in the text [16][18][19][21][22][25]

Group 1 - Indonesia, as the world's largest palm oil producer, is facing supply bottlenecks due to government actions and management issues, which may limit production growth [4][5][24] - The cumulative palm oil production in Indonesia for January to August 2025 is approximately 39.04 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons compared to the same period last year [4][23] - The Indonesian government has confiscated about 3.7 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations, with concerns about the management capabilities of the newly established state-owned enterprise Agrinas Palma Nusantara [5][24] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil production for January to October 2025 is reported at 16.51 million tons, a slight increase of 1.7% from the previous year [7][26] - The unexpected production performance in Malaysia has led to inventory accumulation, which is a key factor in the decline of market prices in the fourth quarter [7][26] - The seasonal reduction logic in Malaysia remains unchanged, and the expected production growth for 2026 may not be optimistic due to aging trees and adverse weather impacts [8][27] Group 3 - India's palm oil imports have decreased to the lowest level in five years due to price competition with soybean oil, but a rebound in demand is expected when price advantages return [9][28] - The low inventory levels in India, combined with a steady increase in consumption demand, are crucial for maintaining resilience in palm oil exports [9][28] - The Indian government's biodiesel policy is a significant demand driver, with plans to increase the blending ratio to 50% (B50) by mid-2026, which could significantly impact palm oil demand [10][12][30] Group 4 - China's palm oil imports have decreased by 16.29% year-on-year, with total imports for January to October 2025 at 2.5269 million tons [15][33] - The import profit margins have shown significant recovery, which has boosted procurement enthusiasm among enterprises [15][33] - As of November 21, 2025, commercial palm oil inventories in key regions of China have increased by 31.34% compared to the previous year, indicating supply pressure and limited downstream demand [17][35] Group 5 - The palm oil market in 2026 is expected to be influenced by supply constraints from Indonesia's nationalization of plantations and Malaysia's structural issues, alongside seasonal reductions [18][37] - The core debate in the market will revolve around the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy and its potential to drive demand growth for palm oil [18][37] - The overall dynamics of the oilseed sector will continue to reflect a balance between supply direction and policy impact, with interdependencies among different oil types being crucial for market analysis [18][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that with a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; however, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is generally expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with a price range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - The bearish factors include the potential weakening of the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel addition policy after China purchases US soybeans, Brazil's entry into the harvesting stage, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - The bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year for the next three years, the initial signs of drought in central - eastern Brazil and southern Argentina, and the possibility of La Nina weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the active contract of US soybeans closed at 1062.5 cents per bushel, up 13 cents per bushel. The rebound was due to the continued progress of Chinese procurement and the low precipitation in central and eastern Brazil. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American main - producing area weather conditions, and biodiesel policy progress [7]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $303.7 per short ton, up $12.7 per short ton. The rebound was supported by the continued progress of Chinese procurement and the drought signs in central and eastern Brazil [10]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly, closing at 49.69 cents per pound, up 0.37 cents per pound. The stable oil market and lack of trading themes led it to follow the US soybean rebound [14]. - **Regional Prices**: As of January 2, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.19 per bushel, down $0.11; the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.62 per bushel, down $0.28 per week. On January 9, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped 11.8 to 104.52 reais per bag. As of January 7, the spot price at Brazilian ports dropped 7.5 to 134.64 reais per bag [16][18][20][22]. Supply Factors - In Brazil, the southern region is expected to have more precipitation in the next two weeks, while the central and eastern producing areas will have less. The main producing areas in Brazil are expected to have slightly less precipitation in the next two weeks, and Mato Grosso will have less precipitation after the middle of this month. Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil are expected to have more precipitation in the next two weeks [25][30][33]. - In Argentina, the main producing areas are expected to have slightly less precipitation in the next two weeks, and the central and southern regions will have less precipitation in the next week [40][42]. Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, down from $2.45 last week [45]. - In the week of January 2, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.1126 million tons, down from 1.2199 million tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 0.9805 million tons, up from 0.7736 million tons last week; the net sales for this year were 0.8779 million tons, down from 1.1777 million tons last week; the sales for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week; the quantity shipped to China was 0.397 million tons, up from 0.135 million tons last week [47][49][51][53][55]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.134, remaining in the La Nina range [58]. - The cost of soybean production in Brazil and the US is expected to rise slightly. The cost of soybean production in the US continues to increase, while the cost in Brazil has decreased year - on - year [60][62][64]. - As of January 6, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 95,900 lots, down from 117,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 73,000 lots, down from 80,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 20,700 lots, up from 10,200 lots last week [66][68][70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, palm oil investors should focus on the MPOB report next Monday and be aware of volatility risks; rapeseed oil investors should pay attention to the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China on rapeseed products; domestic soybean oil inventory remains relatively high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. In the long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - seeking, rapeseed oil prices depend on China - Canada trade relations, and the cost center of soybean oil may rise [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, palm oil futures rose 1.14%, rapeseed oil futures fell 0.50%, and soybean oil futures rose 1.68%. Palm oil spot prices rose 0.42%, rapeseed oil spot prices fell 0.86%, and soybean oil spot prices rose 0.63% [4]. - As of January 8, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 364 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week), 906 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and - 12 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan/ton) respectively. As of January 9, 2026, the YP spread was - 688 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.2 Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons (down 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory was 73.38 million tons (down 0.03 million tons), the national soybean oil inventory was 108.10 million tons (down 0.8 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 181.78 million tons (down 0.93 million tons) [10]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Palm oil**: As of January 6, 2026, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8678 yuan/ton (down 57 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 124 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 823.60 million tons (down 1.5 million tons from the previous week), the major oil - mill soybean inventory was 710.25 million tons (up 55.81 million tons), and the oil - mill operating rate was 50% (up 5%). As of January 9, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 470.70 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 9, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2157.0 yuan/ton (down 241.0 yuan/ton) [22]. 3.4 Demand - side - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 15,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.24 US dollars/ton (down 25.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [28]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and international security, which may affect rapeseed products [29]. - **International factors**: Brazilian soybean harvest is going smoothly, and the new crop is growing well, leading to a loose global soybean supply. The market is waiting for the USDA's January 12 global supply - demand data. From January 1 - 5, 2026, South Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month, and exports increased by 31%. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high [29]. - **Import and crushing**: The oil - mill operating rate increased by 1% from the previous week, and soybean inventory decreased. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [29]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 0.5 million tons, palm oil commercial inventory increased to 70 million tons, and national soybean oil inventory decreased to 112.35 million tons [29]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils rose. Palm oil rose 2.52%, rapeseed oil rose 4.88%, and soybean oil rose 0.96% [29]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - **Palm oil**: This week, the three major oils showed divergent trends. Palm oil fundamentals have improved, with the producing area entering the production - reduction cycle and exports increasing. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in the MPOB report [30]. - **Soybean oil**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, resulting in a loose global soybean supply. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report. In China, soybean oil inventory remains high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [30]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, restraining its market price. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing. Australian rapeseed will increase future supply pressure. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may improve China - Canada relations, and its impact on rapeseed products should be noted [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - Palm oil: Wait for the negative factors to be fully priced in and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The price will mainly move within a range, and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities between different contract months [2][4]. - Soybean meal: The price will fluctuate, waiting for next week's USDA report [2][11]. - Soybean: The price will adjust and fluctuate [2][11]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot market [2][14]. - Sugar: The price will mainly consolidate within a range [2][18]. - Cotton: The price will fluctuate following the overall market sentiment [2][23]. - Eggs: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [2][29]. - Live pigs: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [2][32]. - Peanuts: The price will move in a volatile manner [2][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price increased by 0.58%, and the night - session remained unchanged; soybean oil's day - session closing price decreased by 0.18%, and the night - session remained unchanged; rapeseed oil's day - session closing price decreased by 1.53%, and the night - session decreased by 0.04%. The trading volume of palm oil increased by 176,298 lots, and the position increased by 326 lots; the trading volume of soybean oil decreased by 38,383 lots, and the position increased by 20,895 lots; the trading volume of rapeseed oil increased by 20,169 lots, and the position increased by 20,113 lots [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints; in 2025, Indonesia's palm oil biodiesel consumption was 14.2 billion liters, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year; the USDA commissioner predicts that Malaysia's palm oil exports in 2025/26 will be about 16.2 million tons, and the ending inventory will drop to 2.16 million tons [5][8]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price increased by 0.94%, and the night - session decreased by 0.21%; DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price decreased by 0.32%, and the night - session decreased by 0.89%. The trading volume of soybean meal was 410,000 tons per day, and the inventory was 1.0505 million tons per week [11]. - **Macro and industry news**: On January 8, CBOT soybeans slightly declined due to lower - than - expected export sales. As of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased by 26% from the previous week and 42% from the four - week average [11][13]. Corn - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of C2605 was 2,275 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%; the closing price of C2603 was 2,266 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.52%, and the night - session decreased by 0.13%. The trading volume of C2603 increased by 35,209 lots, and the position increased by 22,891 lots; the trading volume of C2605 increased by 2,930 lots, and the position increased by 14,570 lots [15]. - **Macro and industry news**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price remained stable, the Guangdong Shekou price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, the Northeast deep - processing corn price was stable with a slight increase, and the North China corn price slightly increased [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01; the mainstream spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the futures main contract price was 5,279 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2 [18]. - **Macro and industry news**: As of December 31, 2025, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 24% year - on - year; Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% increase year - on - year; China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [18]. Cotton - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.96%, and the night - session decreased by 0.20%; the closing price of CY2603 was 20,795 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.21%, and the night - session decreased by 0.07%. The trading volume of CF2605 increased by 49,121 lots, and the position decreased by 46,452 lots; the trading volume of CY2603 decreased by 1,999 lots, and the position increased by 1,045 lots [24]. - **Macro and industry news**: The cotton spot trading improved but not significantly, and the cotton textile enterprise's demand was weak, with some weaving factories planning to have an early holiday at the end of this month [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,980 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the trading volume decreased by 284 lots, and the position decreased by 5,335 lots; the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,009 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the trading volume increased by 22,051 lots, and the position increased by 284 lots [29]. - **Macro and industry news**: No relevant content provided. Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: The Henan spot price was 13,030 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,950 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,760 yuan/ton. The closing price of live pig 2603 was 11,785 yuan/ton, the closing price of live pig 2605 was 12,260 yuan/ton, and the closing price of live pig 2607 was 12,940 yuan/ton [33]. - **Macro and industry news**: Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of PK603 was 8,046 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.37%; the closing price of PK605 was 7,986 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.37%. The trading volume of PK603 decreased by 68,988 lots, and the position increased by 2,854 lots; the trading volume of PK605 decreased by 12,710 lots, and the position increased by 2,571 lots [37]. - **Macro and industry news**: The spot prices of peanuts in various regions were basically stable, with small changes in the amount of goods on the market and demand [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Market sentiment has ebbed, and commodities with large previous gains face profit - taking pressure. Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors. Attention should be paid to policy, weather, export, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Bean No.1 - Bean No.1 futures main contract shows an adjustment trend with a reduction in positions. The domestic soybean spot price remains strong. The South American new - season soybean has a high - yield expectation, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA January report predicts the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks and inventory as of December 1, 2025. Reuters predicts a slight increase in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production. South American weather is favorable, and the probability of ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 68%. Dalian soybean meal rebounds with US soybeans. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Market sentiment has ebbed, and soybean oil and palm oil show a trend of rising and then falling. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes, and the Malaysian palm oil market may continue to accumulate inventory. The supply - side risk of overseas soybeans is low, and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues, with a weak supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures decline significantly today. The market has high expectations for the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. If Canada changes its tariff policies on Chinese products, the export of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil to China may resume. The domestic rapeseed - related futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to increase positions and rise. Some Northeast deep - processing enterprises slightly raise the purchase price. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The spot price of some ports is stable or slightly weak. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning continues to decrease. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn spot has a high transaction rate and premium. The short - term trend is wide - range volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to fluctuate. Different data sources show different trends in the number of sows and newborn piglets. The fat - to - lean price difference is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a large supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price is likely to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures contract strengthens again, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern compared with yesterday. The spot price is stable or slightly strong. The monthly year - on - year decline in chick replenishment from September to December exceeds 10%, and the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to go long on the first - half - year 2026 futures contracts at low prices. The second - half - year contracts may have different trends [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - **Jujube**: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - **Apple**: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - **Egg**: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - **Pig**: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - **Meal**: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - **Palm Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - **Jujube**: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - **Sugar**: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - **Apple**: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - **Egg**: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - **Pig**: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - **Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - **Spreads**: - **Three - oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - **Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread**: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - **Jujube 5 - 7 Spread**: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - **Corn 3 - 7 Spread**: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - **Apple 5 - 10 Spread**: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - **Egg 3 - 4 Spread**: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - **Pig 3 - 5 Spread**: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - **Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - **Inventory**: - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - **Jujube**: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - **Apple**: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - **Meal**: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - **Supply - demand**: - **Sugar**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - **Cotton**: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - **Pig**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025/26, the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, with a slight decline in production and inventory. The trade pattern has changed, and the biodiesel policy is a key demand variable. In China, the supply pattern is supported by South American new - crop yields, and there may be a short - term supply tightening. The domestic pig industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price of soybean meal is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [2][3][4] - In 2026, the overall situation of soybean supply is expected to remain loose, but the weather in South American producing areas and the final output will be key variables. The pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which may boost the feed price. The price of soybean meal may show different trends in different quarters [37][38] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Annual Review of Soybean Meal - In 2025, the global soybean supply was in a loose cycle, which pressured the CBOT futures. Biodiesel policies supported the price floor. The Sino - US trade game dominated price fluctuations. The price of US soybeans fluctuated in the bottom range of 970 - 1080 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean meal also fluctuated in the bottom range, and the annual fluctuation range was 2800 - 3100 yuan per ton [6] 2. Global Supply and Demand (1) Global Supply - In 2025/26, the global soybean production remained at a high level but decreased by 461 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%) compared with 2024/25. The end - of - period inventory decreased slightly, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased slightly. The future may enter a de - stocking cycle [8] - For the US, the USDA in November lowered the 2025/26 US soybean production by 329.6 million tons (a decrease of 2.76%) compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a 7.1% decrease in the planting area. The future planting area may change depending on the Sino - US trade relationship and the soybean/corn price ratio [9] - In South America, Brazil's production growth rate slowed down. Factors such as rising production costs and geopolitical uncertainties restricted farmers' expansion willingness. Different institutions had different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 production, but it was generally at a high level. The rainfall and temperature at the end of the year and the beginning of next year were the key variables for the final output. Argentina's 2025/26 production was expected to decline by 5.10% due to a reduction in the planting area and the impact of La Nina [10][12][13] (2) Global Consumption - In 2025/26, the global soybean export consumption remained stable, and the growth rate of crushing consumption slowed down. The Sino - US trade friction changed the trade pattern, and the biodiesel policy affected the construction of the phased bottom of the soybean price [19] - For US soybeans, the export was difficult. The Sino - US trade relationship affected the export volume. The implementation of the biodiesel policy was postponed, but the future blending target was set at a high level, which would drive the demand [20][21] - In South America, Brazil's soybean export was strong in 2025, but over - concentration of exports made it vulnerable. Argentina expanded its export channels through policy incentives and began to export soybean meal to China. If the export to China becomes normalized, the global supply chain pattern may change [22][23] 3. Domestic Supply and Demand (1) South American New - Crop Yields Support the Domestic Supply Pattern, with Possible Short - Term Supply Tightening - In 2025, China's soybean import pattern changed due to the Sino - US trade game. From January to November, the cumulative import of soybeans increased by 6.88% year - on - year, with Brazilian soybeans accounting for 73.88%. The recent raw material supply may be less than expected due to factors such as shipping efficiency and quarantine procedures. The supply pattern in 2026 depends on whether the South American harvest is good [24][26][27] (2) Diversified Imports Expand, and Argentine Soybean Meal Imports May Open New Channels - In 2025, China took the initiative in the Sino - US soybean trade game and actively expanded import channels. The "dual - source supply structure" of "mainly Brazil and supplemented by Argentina" was formed, which increased China's bargaining power. If soybean meal imports become normalized, the domestic pricing logic and trade model may change [29] (3) Terminal Livestock Supply is Expected to Tighten, and Prices are Expected to Enter a New Cycle - In 2025, the pig inventory remained high, the supply - demand contradiction intensified, and the pig price fluctuated at the bottom. In 2026, the supply pressure will be gradually released in the first half of the year, and the pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which will boost the feed price [31][33] 4. Outlook for the 2026 Soybean Meal Market - In 2026, the US interest rate may decline, and the weakening of the US dollar will help US agricultural product exports. Globally, the supply is expected to remain loose, but the final output in South America is the key factor. Domestically, if the South American output does not change much, the supply pattern of soybean meal may remain loose. The livestock industry may have a turning point in the second half of the year [37] - The weather and output in South American producing areas are key variables for the cost side. In the first quarter of next year, the price is sensitive to positive factors. In the second and third quarters, the supply pressure is the greatest. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may change, and the price and basis may recover from the low level [38]