研究中心能化团队 2025/06/09 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/3 0 801 2265 2283 2350 2510 2300 2495 256 320 32 35 -849 2025/06/0 3 801 2288 2290 2350 2520 2300 2463 260 320 35 60 -891 2025/06/0 4 801 2312 2308 2340 2500 2320 2475 261 320 51 45 -962 2025/06/0 5 801 2317 2300 2345 2500 2320 2493 262 320 38 42 -966 2025/06/0 6 801 2322 2313 2350 2500 2320 2493 262 320 36 40 -967 日度变化 0 5 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 甲醇聚烯烃早报 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Given the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, lack of clear OPEC production increase data, and the support from shale oil, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiation is successful. Short - term, it's better to stay on the sidelines for crude oil [1]. - For methanol, considering the ample supply and weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. One - sided trading can focus on short positions on rallies, and for cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. One - sided trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - For rubber, it shows a strong - side oscillation. Short - term long or neutral thinking is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][11]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short - term, due to the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not realized [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven to supply - driven decline. With no new capacity planned in June, the price may oscillate [15]. - For polypropylene, with planned capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the maintenance season is ending, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season on the supply side is ending [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收涨0.51美元，涨幅0.81%，报63.25美元；布伦特主力原油期货收涨0.38美元，涨幅0.59%，报65.29美元；INE主力原油期货收跌4.50元，跌幅0.96%，报463.7元 [6]. - 新加坡油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.08百万桶至13.10百万桶，环比累库0.62%；柴油库存去库0.69百万桶至9.24百万桶，环比去库6.91%；燃料油库存累库0.24百万桶至22.58百万桶，环比累库1.09%；总成品油去库0.36百万桶至44.92百万桶，环比去库0.80% [6]. Methanol - 6月5日09合约跌11元/吨，报2259元/吨，现货涨8元/吨，基差+51 [3]. - 供应端开工见底回升至同期高位，企业利润高位回落，预计短期供应维持高位；需求端港口MTO装置开工回到高位，传统需求开工回升，需求小幅好转，港口累库慢价格偏强，内地供增需弱价格走低，港口与内地价差扩大 [3]. Urea - 6月5日09合约跌52元/吨，报1722元/吨，现货跌10元/吨，基差+111 [5]. - 供应维持高位，日产持续走高；需求端复合肥夏季肥结束，企业开工回落，对尿素需求减少，企业预收订单回落，库存累至同期高位，盘面价格下跌 [5]. Rubber - NR和RU偏强震荡 [9]. - 多头认为东南亚尤其是泰国的天气、橡胶林现状和政策可能助于减产；空头认为宏观预期转差，需求平淡处于季节性淡季，高价会刺激新增供应，减产幅度可能不及预期 [10]. - 截至6月5日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为63.45%，较上周走低1.33个百分点，较去年同期走高2.56个百分点；半钢胎企业开工负荷为73.49%，较上周走低4.39个百分点，较去年同期走低6.75个百分点，海外新接订单不佳 [11]. - 截至6月1日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128万吨，环比下降2.8万吨，降幅2.1%；深色胶社会总库存为76.3万吨，环比下降3.4%；浅色胶社会总库存为51.7万吨，环比降0.1% [11]. PVC - PVC09合约下跌87元，报4747元，常州SG - 5现货价4680元/吨，基差 - 67元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 67元/吨 [13]. - 成本端持稳，本周整体开工率78.2%，环比上升2%；需求端下游开工46.2%，环比下降0.8%；厂内库存38.5万吨，社会库存59.8万吨，均有下降 [13]. - 企业利润压力大，检修季接近尾声，后续产量预期回升，有装置投产预期；下游开工疲弱转淡季，出口签单转弱，成本端电石下跌，估值支撑减弱，短期预计偏弱震荡 [13]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格无变动，PE估值向上空间有限 [15]. - 二季度供应端新增产能大，供应承压；上中游库存去库对价格支撑有限，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单递减，开工率震荡下行，6月无新增产能投产计划，价格或维持震荡 [15]. - 主力合约收盘价7034元/吨，下跌15元/吨，现货7125元/吨无变动，基差91元/吨，走强15元/吨；上游开工76.52%，环比下降1.10%；生产企业库存51.77万吨，环比累库3.57万吨，贸易商库存5.83万吨，环比累库0.01万吨；下游平均开工率39.2%，环比下降0.10%；LL9 - 1价差29元/吨，环比缩小2元/吨 [15]. Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格上涨但跌幅小于PE [16]. - 6月供应端有220万吨计划产能投放，需求端下游开工率随塑编订单见顶后或季节性震荡下行，预计6月价格偏空 [16]. - 主力合约收盘价6911元/吨，下跌37元/吨，现货7120元/吨，上涨5元/吨，基差209元/吨，走强42元/吨；上游开工78.31%，环比上涨0.65%；生产企业库存60.51万吨，环比累库5.18万吨，贸易商库存14.76万吨，环比累库1.15万吨，港口库存6.64万吨，环比累库0.15万吨；下游平均开工率50.29%，环比下降0.43%；LL - PP价差123元/吨，环比扩大22元/吨 [16]. Polyester PX - PX09合约下跌38元，报6540元，PX CFR下跌5美元，报820美元，按人民币中间价折算基差252元，9 - 1价差182元 [18]. - 中国负荷82.1%，环比上升4.1%；亚洲负荷72%，环比上升2.6%；辽阳石化、中海油惠州等装置重启或提负荷，海外部分装置有重启和检修 [18]. - 5月韩国PX出口中国30.3万吨，同比下降8.7万吨；4月底库存451万吨，月环比下降17万吨；PXN为263美元，石脑油裂差87美元 [18]. - 检修季结束，6月去库放缓，三季度因PTA新装置投产重新进入去库周期，终端纺服出口预期偏强，聚酯库存低，原料端负反馈压力小，短期估值升至中性偏高水平，预计震荡 [18]. PTA - PTA09合约下跌26元，报4644元，华东现货下跌20元/吨，报4845元，基差216元，9 - 1价差138元 [19]. - PTA负荷79.7%，环比上升3.3%，部分装置重启或推后；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [19]. - 5月30日社会库存（除信用仓单）220.8万吨，环比去库9.4万吨；现货加工费上涨8元，至389元，盘面加工费下跌1元，至354元 [19]. - 供给端处于检修季，需求端聚酯化纤库存压力小，预期持续去库，加工费有支撑，绝对价格预计震荡 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - EG09合约下跌9元，报4283元，华东现货上涨8元，报4425元，基差130元，9 - 1价差31元 [21]. - 供给端负荷60%，环比上升0.2%，部分装置有检修和重启；海外部分装置重启；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [21]. - 进口到港预报10.8万吨，华东出港6月4日0.77万吨，出库下降，港口库存62.1万吨，去库6.6万吨；石脑油制利润为 - 362元，国内乙烯制利润 - 455元，煤制利润1177元；成本端乙烯持平，榆林坑口烟煤末价格上涨 [21]. - 产业处于去库阶段，终端出口偏强，聚酯化纤库存压力小，但估值修复大，供给端检修季结束，有估值回调风险 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, even if the negotiations are successful, it's not suitable to chase short positions due to the current risk - return ratio. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - For methanol, with the weakening of inland prices, the stabilization of coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, the domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak, and it's recommended to consider short positions on rallies. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. - For urea, the domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high in the short term. Demand is lukewarm. It's recommended to wait and see for single - side trading as there's no obvious price trend and the basis is at a low level [6]. - For rubber, the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU. It's recommended to adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][12]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be supply - strong and demand - weak. The mid - term fundamentals are weak [13]. - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate in June as the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to supply - driven decline, and there are no new capacity - production plans in June [15]. - For polypropylene, with the concentrated capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude - oil futures closed down $0.60, a 0.95% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude - oil futures closed down $0.70, a 1.07% decline, at $64.91; INE main crude - oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, a 1.23% increase, at 468.2 yuan [1]. - **Data**: US commercial crude - oil inventory decreased by 4.30 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 401.82 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 5.22 million barrels to 228.30 million barrels, a 2.34% increase; diesel inventory increased by 4.23 million barrels to 107.64 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; fuel - oil inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 23.27 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; aviation - kerosene inventory increased by 0.94 million barrels to 43.65 million barrels, a 2.20% increase [1]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Inland prices are weakening, coal is stabilizing, and enterprise profits have declined significantly. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [4]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Consider short positions on rallies for single - side trading. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. Urea - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high. The compound - fertilizer summer - fertilizer season is ending, and the agricultural demand will increase gradually. Exports are expected to improve slightly after the policy implementation [6]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Wait and see for single - side trading [6]. Rubber - **Market Sentiment**: The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU [10]. - **Supply - Demand Views**: Bulls think that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is deteriorating, demand is flat, it's the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices may stimulate new supply [11]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week and up 3.91 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.88%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week and down 2.40 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a 0.96% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a 1.5% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a 0.1% decline [12]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 89 yuan to 4,834 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,680 (+10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 154 (- 79) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 37 (- 13) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost is stable, the overall operating rate is 78.2%, up 2% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate is 46.2%, down 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory is 385,000 tons (- 2,000), and social inventory is 598,000 tons (- 26,000). The enterprise profit is under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase as the maintenance season ends [13]. Polyethylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation's upward space is limited. The supply in the second quarter is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [15]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 7,049 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,125 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 79.33%, up 1.92% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 482,000 tons, down 16,400 tons week - on - week, and the trader inventory was 58,200 tons, up 1,100 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 39.3%, down 0.09% week - on - week [15]. Polypropylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the decline was smaller than that of PE. There are 2.2 million tons of planned capacity to be put into production in June, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [16]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 6,948 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,115 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 167 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 75.74%, down 0.01% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 553,300 tons, down 39,900 tons week - on - week, the trader inventory was 136,100 tons, down 16,900 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory was 64,900 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 50.29%, down 0.43% week - on - week [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 54 yuan to 6,578 yuan, and PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 825 dollars. The basis was 258 yuan (- 44), and the 9 - 1 spread was 180 yuan (- 4) [18]. - **Operating Rate**: China's PX operating rate was 82.1%, up 4.1% week - on - week; Asia's was 72%, up 2.6% week - on - week [18]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: The de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter due to the new PTA plant commissioning. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4,670 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 4,865 yuan. The basis was 197 yuan (- 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (+2) [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The PTA operating rate was 76.4%, down 0.7% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week [19]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: It will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 14 yuan to 4,292 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 62 yuan to 4,417 yuan. The basis was 128 (- 19), and the 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan (- 23) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side operating rate was 59.8%, up 0.1% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week. The port inventory was 621,000 tons, down 66,000 tons [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In 2025, new devices pose significant pressure, and attention should be paid to their commissioning [8]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract faces pressure, which can be relieved by export growth or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [8]. - For PVC, the basis is strengthening. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and factors like exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. The daily changes in江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 were 0, 20, 5, - 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 20, - 13 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained at 780. The daily changes in华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 65, 30, - 2, 0 respectively [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,山东丙烯 and东北亚丙烯 remained stable in some cases. The daily changes in华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 43, 20, - 2, - 133 respectively [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2450 to 2350,山东烧碱 increased from 867 to 885. The daily change in基差(高端交割品) was 10 [11][12].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 3 801 2302 2303 2460 2600 2460 2630 256 327 70 50 -818 2025/05/2 6 801 2285 2300 2410 2565 2460 2525 256 327 58 40 -843 2025/05/2 7 801 2250 2275 2390 2520 2325 2505 254 327 39 40 -828 2025/05/2 8 801 2255 2275 2355 2520 2300 2500 255 327 29 25 -825 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 255 327 32 15 -836 日度变化 0 -10 3 -2 -10 0 -5 0 0 3 -10 -11 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is active due to the suspension of US tariff measures and the support from major PTA suppliers. The supply of PX has started to increase, and the basis of PTA has weakened significantly. There is selling pressure in the market, and the positive spread has weakened. Polyester may experience a slight production cut. [2] - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains at over 700,000 tons. The coal - based ethylene glycol device load increase puts pressure on the market, but coal prices have started to rise. The mainstream device load of ethylene glycol is about to be overhauled, and it will enter the de - stocking stage. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Quotes - INE crude oil price increased from 453.0 yuan/barrel on May 28, 2025, to 467.1 yuan/barrel on May 29, 2025, with an increase of 14.10 yuan/barrel. The PTA price in the East China market rose to 4951 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton. The spot price of PTA increased from 4880 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee increased from 322.5 yuan/ton to 354.8 yuan/ton. [2] - The spot price of ethylene glycol in the Zhangjiagang market rose to 4512 - 4514 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous working day. [2] Industrial Chain - PX: CFR China PX increased from 836 to 852, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 269 to 290. [2] - PTA: The PTA main futures price increased from 4672 yuan/ton to 4814 yuan/ton. The on - disk processing fee increased from 134.5 yuan/ton to 188.8 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG: The MEG main futures price increased from 4311 yuan/ton to 4359 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread changed from (83.63) to (82.82). [2] Product Situation - Polyester filament: The prices of POY, FDY, and DTY had different changes, and the cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased. The filament production and sales rate decreased from 72% to 56%. [2] - Polyester staple fiber: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6590 to 6625, and the cash flow decreased from 12 to (9). The short - fiber production and sales rate increased from 52% to 93%. [2] - Polyester chips: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5850 to 5905, and the chip cash flow decreased from (178) to (179). The chip production and sales rate increased from 36% to 163%. [2] Device Maintenance - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to immediately implement production cuts for loss - making products and plan the next - step production cut plan, which will be implemented in the short term. [2]

华东市场苯乙烯市场震荡走高，至收盘现货7570-7900（06合约+450附近），6月下7440-7530（07合约 +310附近），7月下7260-7400（07合约+148附近），单位：元/吨。美金市场整体走稳，内外盘价差维 持顺挂，但美金报盘有限，在装置检修带动下，欧美苯乙烯价格偏坚挺。 【苯乙烯现货】 【纯苯现货】 纯苯市场价格涨幅较明显，截至收盘江苏港口纯苯5下商谈5830/5880元/吨，6月下商谈5870/5920元/ 吨，7月下商谈5900/5950元/吨，8月下商谈5900/5950元/吨。 纯苯市场价格涨幅较明显，因关税风险回落提振商品市场情绪，推动原料价格持续上行的同时，苯乙烯 盘面上涨推动纯苯商谈价格也挺价跟进。苯乙烯方面新一周期港口库存止降累库，但短期库存绝对水平 偏低仍予以盘面向上弹性势能。但现货端市场高价货源压力大。中期看3S在低利润局面下对苯乙烯驱 动不足。建议短期谨慎观望。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -109 7085 40 80 5259 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -139 7080 60 80 5259 2025/05/2 7 780 7025 7300 8950 7750 855 917 -224 7007 40 80 5259 2025/05/2 8 780 6980 7275 8950 7750 855 917 -224 6972 20 80 5259 日度变化 0 -45 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -35 -20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market continues to fluctuate, and the market is waiting for a clearer trend. The increase in production by OPEC+ and geopolitical factors are the main factors affecting the market [1][2]. - The prices of chemical products have intensified in recent games. The increase in container shipping volume from China to the United States and the expected increase in production by OPEC+ have become trading points. The market is worried about a decline in crude oil prices in the future, and investors generally view the chemical market with a fluctuating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production limits the increase in oil prices [1]. - Chemical products continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The resumption of device maintenance and production and the improvement of demand have become the focus of the game [2]. 3.2 Variety Viewpoints | Variety | Viewpoint | Mid - term Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | Concerns about production increase persist, and oil prices are still under pressure | Oscillating weakly [4] | | LPG | Domestic demand remains weak, and the rebound of PG is limited | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Asphalt | The futures price of asphalt is overestimated and waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4] | | High - sulfur Fuel Oil | The overestimated state of high - sulfur fuel oil is waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4][5] | | Low - sulfur Fuel Oil | The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Methanol | The inland price has declined slightly, and it fluctuates in the short term | Oscillating [14] | | Urea | The domestic rigid demand and export demand have not been linked, and the futures market fluctuates weakly | Oscillating [14] | | PX | Supply and demand are tightening, and PX prices are rising | Oscillating [8] | | PTA | The market lacks driving force, and PTA maintains an oscillating pattern | Oscillating [8] | | Ethylene Glycol | The reduction in polyester production drags down the demand for EG, but the expectation of inventory reduction still supports the futures price | Oscillating [10][11] | | Short - fiber | The basis strengthens, and the pattern of short - fiber remains healthy | Oscillating [11][12] | | Bottle Chip | Fluctuates and consolidates following raw materials | Oscillating [13] | | PP | Supply and demand are still under pressure, and PP fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [16][17] | | Plastic | The fundamental pressure needs to be alleviated by increased maintenance, and plastic fluctuates | Oscillating [16] | | Styrene | The actual performance is still poor, and styrene fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [8][9] | | PVC | Weak expectations and low valuations, and the futures market fluctuates | Oscillating [19] | | Caustic Soda | Strong current situation and weak expectations, and caustic soda fluctuates | Oscillating weakly [19] | 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) with a latest value of - 3 and a change of 4, and WTI (M1 - M2) with a latest value of 0.64 and a change of 0.04 [20]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 109 with a change of 10, and the warehouse receipt is 86510 [21]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA with a latest value of 6 and a change of 0 [22]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions basis and spread monitoring for multiple chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [23][35][47].