Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect methanol profits [2]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profits are around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New plants in 2025 will bring significant pressure [7]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of major producers are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production is at a neutral level. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stabilizing, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2285 to 2278, and the South China spot price decreased from 2270 to 2253. Other regional prices also showed certain fluctuations [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 785 on some days. The North China LL price decreased from 6890 to 6840, and the East China LL price remained at 7025 on some days. Other related prices and data also had corresponding changes [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6260 to 6000, and the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 750. The East China PP price and other related prices also showed fluctuations [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2425 to 2450, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 835 to 822. The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased from 4640 to 4680 [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.10.20 [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Report Source: Research and Consulting Department of Zhongyuan Futures [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views 2.1 Soda Ash - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable. Supply decreased due to maintenance, but is expected to increase as previously maintained units resume production. Demand is weak, with some enterprises having poor shipping and a slight accumulation of alkali plant inventory. High supply and inventory strongly suppress soda ash prices, and the futures price continues to fluctuate weakly. In the medium to long term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand under the pattern of new capacity release. Opportunities for shorting on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass fluctuated. The overall supply was stable, while demand was weak, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. The futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair dynamics of production lines under the condition of profit losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%. The weekly output was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.03 tons. Light soda ash output was 32.50 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons, and heavy soda ash output was 41.55 tons, a decrease of 1.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 69.98 tons, a decrease of 1.11 tons. Light soda ash demand was 30.43 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons, and heavy soda ash demand was 39.55 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.13 tons, unchanged from the 9th. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [6]. - Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2% [6]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of October 16, 2025, in the central China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 120 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price was weak, and the glass futures price dropped significantly [11][14]. 3.2.2 Price Difference - As of October 16, 2025, the 1 - 5 price difference of soda ash was - 90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 price difference of glass was - 137 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the glass - soda ash arbitrage price difference was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Fundamentals 3.3.1 Supply - Soda Ash: The weekly output decreased, but is expected to increase as maintenance units resume production. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate decreased, with the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate at 89.42% (a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%) and the joint - production capacity utilization rate at 75.74% (a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%) [26][35]. - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired [6]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [39]. - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [51]. 3.3.3 Profitability - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of joint - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton [54]. - Glass: The report provides cost and profit data for float glass production using coal and natural gas as fuels, but specific analysis is not given [55][56][57][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices declined during the week due to lack of cost support. International oil prices dropped continuously because of signs of easing geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic PX开工 was at a high level for the year, and although there was a fire at a South Korean refinery, the PX device was not affected. Downstream demand did not improve significantly, leading to a price decline under weak cost and fundamentals [9]. - PTA prices also fell during the week due to the lack of cost support and the expectation of new device commissioning. The weakness of crude oil and PX negatively affected the PTA market sentiment. The potential trial - run of 2.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity in East China would increase the supply pressure. Although downstream开工 increased driven by the demand for warm - keeping products, the subsequent upward space was limited, and the fundamental boost to PTA was weakening [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil prices will fluctuate within a narrow range, waiting for the follow - up development of Sino - US trade issues. - For PX, due to sanctions, trade wars and other factors, the short - term production of some factories may be affected, thus affecting PX supply, but the overall开工 will remain at a high level. - For PTA, PTA factories have not further reduced production even under low - efficiency conditions, and the expectation of new device commissioning in East China suppresses market sentiment. It is expected that the开工 will remain at a high level. - For polyester, the polyester开工 load will be generally stable, and there are no planned start - up or shutdowns of polyester devices. At the end of the traditional peak demand season, it is estimated that polyester factories will not actively reduce production to maintain market share. - For the weaving industry, foreign customers are conservative in placing orders due to uncertain factors, resulting in slow placement of recent export orders. Domestic demand has increased, but factories are not optimistic about the subsequent market. - Overall, PX will operate weakly in the range of 6,150 - 6,350 yuan/ton; PTA will also operate weakly in the range of 4,300 - 4,500 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **Futures**: On October 17, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,292 yuan/ton, down 212 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 3.26%. The settlement price on October 17 was 6,334 yuan/ton, down 198 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 3.03% [14]. - **Spot**: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were acceptable, with a differentiated trend in the paper - spot market. From October 13 - 17, the average basis of the main contract was - 131 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.50 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 1.97% [15][17]. 3.1.2 PTA - **Futures**: The price decline was dominated by cost. On October 17, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,402 yuan/ton, down 132 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 2.91%. The settlement price on October 17 was 4,424 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 2.85% [19][21]. - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere was average, mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories making inquiries. There was concentrated trading on Friday, with an average daily trading volume of about 2 - 3 million tons. From October 13 - 17, the average basis of the main contract was - 70 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 549.2 US dollars/ton, down 17.8 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of - 3.13%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,371.6 yuan/ton, down 108.07 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.41% [22][24]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - There were changes in the operation of PX devices in different regions. For example, in East China, some enterprises such as Ningbo Daxie, Sheng Hong Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical had different load - operation conditions. In North China, Urumqi Petrochemical stopped for maintenance on October 14, expected to last for 15 days. The overall domestic PX开工 rate remained at a high level, and the planned maintenance of domestic and foreign PX devices in the fourth quarter was limited [29][33]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Some large - scale PTA devices were under maintenance, such as those of Ningbo Taihua, Hainan Yisheng, and Yisheng Dahua. The weekly开工 rate decreased by 1.92% [36][37]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: European and American crude oil futures fell for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of more than 12%. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price on October 17 was 57.15 US dollars/barrel, down 1.75 US dollars/barrel from October 10. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price on October 17 was 61.29 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44 US dollars/barrel from October 10. The market was concerned about the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the price was affected by factors such as trade relations, supply and demand expectations, and geopolitical situations [42][44]. - **Naphtha**: The price continued to decline this week, and the economy rebounded slightly. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 550.25 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 60.72 US dollars/ton. The fundamental situation of naphtha did not change significantly, and the East - West arbitrage window remained open, with European naphtha flowing to Asia. The substitution effect of downstream LPG on naphtha affected some demand expectations, and the subsequent impact of sanctions and trade wars on naphtha remained to be evaluated [47][49]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The PXN margin rebounded slightly, and the short - process efficiency narrowed. The weekly average PXN was 236.92 US dollars/ton, a change of 7.36% from the previous period. The PX - MX margin remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 98.75 US dollars/ton. Due to the high domestic开工 rate and insufficient demand, the decline of PX was obvious, and the cash flow continued to narrow during the week, with short - process devices near the break - even point [50][52]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The boost of device short - stops to the processing fee was limited. From October 13 - 17, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 169.05 yuan/ton, compared with 202.90 yuan/ton last week. Although the production reduction plan temporarily increased the processing fee, the demand did not improve significantly, and it was difficult to improve the processing fee under weak cost and demand [54][56]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the PTA social inventory was 4.126 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week, a change of - 0.47% in the month - on - month growth rate. The decrease in inventory was due to device maintenance rather than demand improvement. The inventory days of PTA factories decreased by 0.14 days, while those of polyester factories increased by 1.15 days. As of October 16, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 4.08 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 7.35 days. It was estimated that the upward space of the polyester开工 rate was limited in the later period, and the inventory - reduction rhythm would slow down [59][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The average weekly price of PTA declined, and the overall demand was weak, which was negative for the polyester market. The average market prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.47%, 0.82%, and 1.13% respectively from the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 1.45%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,600 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and the average weekly price was 5,710.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.14% from the previous period. The average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.38%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.22% [67][75]. - **Weaving**: The new export orders were placed slowly, and the weaving market lacked confidence in the future market. With the significant drop in temperature in the north, the online sales of autumn and winter textile and clothing accelerated, driving the sales of thick fabrics such as autumn and winter velvet and woolen fabrics. The starting rate of warp - knitting enterprises increased steadily. However, there was a risk of escalation of Sino - US trade frictions after the festival, and some export enterprises were accelerating the production of existing orders to avoid potential impacts [81][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [6]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turned to inventory accumulation, with an overall inventory increase of around 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month, significantly pressuring market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - PTA: Overnight crude oil tumbled last Friday but rebounded on Monday. PTA futures opened lower and fluctuated on the previous day, with a small decline in the end. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened. There were rumors that the 3 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy Phase 4 was planned to be put into operation in mid - October, and an old device would be temporarily shut down if the new one was commissioned [7]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday. The spot price opened lower and then slightly recovered, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. The overseas market center of ethylene glycol declined, and traders were the main participants in the trading [8]. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the PTA factory inventory was 4.22 days, a 0.47 - day increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [7]. - MEG: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the total inventory in East China was 445,100 tons, a 40,800 - ton increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Factors affecting PTA and MEG: - Bullish factors: Before the holiday, the polyester market had a booming sales under the combined positive effects of increased demand and rising oil prices. The inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the price rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester price remained stable. Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning [9][10]. - Bearish factors: A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China was gradually increasing its production to over 90%, after reducing production around October 7 [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides PTA supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [13]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides ethylene glycol supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. [14]. - Price Data: Shows price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from October 10 to October 13, 2025, as well as basis and profit data [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Recently, domestic supply - side disturbances have increased. With the maintenance of some refining and chemical plants in East and South China, production has decreased, and the import of Asian sources is restricted. Demand remains weak, and inventory in some areas has decreased. The cost has increased. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate strongly under the support of plant maintenance, but in the long - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression caused by OPEC+ production increase and less - than - expected demand recovery [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply has been continuously shrinking due to maintenance. Although production may increase this week, downstream device operation is differentiated, and inventory performance is also different. The cost of non - integrated enterprises has increased, and profit margins have been compressed. In September, the supply pressure is relatively alleviated. In the short - term, inventory is being reduced, but if demand does not improve significantly, the price increase space may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On September 22, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.92% at 6,928 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42 (+4 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.75% at 5,921 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On September 22, Brent crude oil closed at $62.4/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,875 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization have decreased. The weekly output was 34.7 tons (-0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 73.4% (-1.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS was 61.7% (+0.7%), ABS was 69.8% (-0.2%), and PS was 61.2% (-0.7%) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustment. South Korea has cut ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories have closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared with the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and South and Northeast China developing in coordination [8]. 3.3 Chain Data Monitoring - **Price Monitoring** - **Styrene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.92%, and the spot price decreased by 1.78%. The basis increased by 10.53% [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.75%, and prices in different regions had different degrees of decline [5]. - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.32%, and naphtha decreased by 1.14% [5]. - **Production and Inventory Monitoring** - **Production**: From September 5 to 12, China's styrene production decreased by 5.97%, and pure benzene production increased by 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: From September 5 to 12, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18%, and pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 3.36% [6]. - **Capacity Utilization Monitoring** - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline changed to different degrees from September 5 to 12 [7]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also had different changes during the same period [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil as geopolitical premiums have dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal, and the current oil price is relatively undervalued with good fundamentals. However, it's not advisable to chase the price at present, and if geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the fundamentals are mixed with high inventory suppressing the price. It's recommended to wait and see as the price is greatly affected by overall commodity sentiment [6]. - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 9.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.87% decline, at 487.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.39%) to 2796.00 yuan/ton and low - sulfur fuel oil down 36.00 yuan/ton (1.05%) to 3392.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that overall refined oil inventories decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 45.39 million barrels, a 4.10% decline [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. If geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang rose 6 yuan/ton, while that in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 18 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108. The 1 - 5 spread rose 16 to - 20 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side start - up rate declined, and the demand - side improved marginally. The inventory in ports continued to rise, but the inventory pressure in the inland area was relatively small. It's recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan fell 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 9 yuan/ton to 1661 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31. The 1 - 5 spread fell 6 to - 61 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased again. Although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined with a large drop after breaking through technical support. The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is not significant, reducing supply - side bullish factors. The long - short views on natural rubber are divided. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, down 2.2 million tons (1.8%) from the previous period [11][12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 27 yuan to 4950 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 170 (-27) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, down 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.2%, up 1.7% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (-0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5903 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The active contract closing price was 6992 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, down 1.60%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 million tons to 15.90 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 45.44%, up 0.46% [18][19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.28%, up 0.71%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 49.03 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 6.06 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.92%, up 0.75% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 39 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 million tons to 55.06 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 million tons to 18.83 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.29 million tons to 6.18 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, up 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 90 yuan to 6594 yuan. PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 816 dollars. The basis was 96 yuan (+4), and the 11 - 1 spread was 0 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 86.3%, down 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, down 0.8% from the previous period. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 0.6 million tons year - on - year [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 62 yuan to 4604 yuan. The East China spot price fell 75 yuan to 4555 yuan. The basis was - 82 yuan (-5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (-6). The PTA load was 75.9%, down 0.9% from the previous period [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 4257 yuan. The East China spot price fell 11 yuan to 4351 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (+2). The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, down 1.1% from the previous period. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.2% from the previous period. The port inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 46.5 million tons [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35].

Group 1 - The main contract for caustic soda futures closed at 2641 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.88% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate nationwide decreased by 1.5% to 81.9% due to equipment maintenance [3] - The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises increased by 6.02% month-on-month and 18.22% year-on-year, reaching 37.83 million tons [2] Group 2 - New Lake Futures predicts a seasonal decline in caustic soda production due to maintenance, but overall production will remain stable [4] - Demand for caustic soda is supported by high operating rates and production in the alumina sector, although there is pressure from imports [4] - The traditional peak season for downstream demand is showing weak performance, leading to price declines in the caustic soda market [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - position trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical industry is weak, with different products showing varying trends in supply, demand, and price [2][3][5] - Some products may have short - term price fluctuations due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, seasonal factors, and cost pressures [2][5][6] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts continued to decline. Propylene demand improved as prices dropped, but market supply showed an increasing trend [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts had a narrow decline. Polyethylene demand increased as downstream factory operating rates rose, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. Polypropylene supply may slightly shrink, but downstream procurement enthusiasm was restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued its weak trend, with a slight decline in weekly开工 and low - level fluctuations in processing margins. The domestic pure benzene market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppressed market sentiment [3] - Styrene futures main contracts declined. Supply had unplanned reductions, but demand entered a dull period, and there may be low - price promotions by northern enterprises before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA price was under pressure, and the PTA - PX spread continued to rebound. The short - term market was weak, but there was an expectation of downstream stocking before the festival [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic开工 increased slightly, and the market was expected to be weak, but the actual supply pressure was not large [5] - Short - fiber futures prices declined. Near - month short - fiber could be allocated more on the long side, and positive spreads could be bought at low prices [5] - Bottle chip operating rate slightly declined, with a slight reduction in inventory and a small repair in processing margins, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity limited the repair space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts showed a strong - side shock. Short - term supply - demand difference was expected to narrow, and long - term attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea main contracts continued to decline. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with the market oscillating at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with large inventory pressure. It may have an oscillating and weak trend [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differentiation. The futures price may oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had inventory accumulation again. In the short - term, it was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and the long - term supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [8] - Glass continued the pattern of high supply and weak demand. The futures price was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]