Core Viewpoint - Local government fiscal revenues have shown slight growth in the first three quarters of the year, with expenditures also increasing, indicating a focus on stabilizing the economy and ensuring public welfare [3][4][6]. Fiscal Revenue Summary - Among 28 provinces, 24 reported growth in general public budget revenues, with Tibet and Jilin achieving double-digit growth rates of 14.2% and 11.4% respectively [8]. - Nationally, local general public budget revenue reached 93,039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while expenditures totaled 177,056 billion yuan, up 2.4% [6]. - Provinces like Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai experienced declines in revenue, attributed to falling prices of major commodities like coal [9]. Fiscal Expenditure Summary - Most provinces reported slight increases in fiscal expenditures, with Tibet showing the highest growth rate at 13% [14]. - Expenditures in key areas such as health, social security, and education have been prioritized, with Hunan province allocating over 70% of its budget to these sectors [14]. - The government is focusing on balancing fiscal resources and ensuring that expenditures support essential public services and economic stability [14][15]. Revenue Quality and Trends - The overall quality of fiscal revenue has improved slightly, with tax revenue growth outpacing non-tax revenue [12]. - In some regions, significant disparities in revenue growth rates were observed, with certain counties experiencing high growth due to specific industry developments [11]. - The low growth in fiscal revenues is influenced by broader economic conditions, including a sluggish real estate market and challenges faced by various industries [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand remains generally stable, and the current situation of oversupply may improve with production control [2] - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and the options market sentiment is slightly bullish [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage where supply converges and demand slightly decreases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 21,725 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,858.50 US dollars/ton, down 18.50 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 552,375 tons, down 825 tons [2] - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread of alumina was - 82 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,630 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,890 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 560 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 95 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was - 28.05 US dollars/ton, down 1.62 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2] - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 155,414.40 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2] - The national alumina开工率 was 85.28%, down 0.70 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of alumina was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.30 million tons, down 1.70 million tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 56.60 million tons, down 0.30 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] - The national real estate prosperity index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2] - The automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum in 20 days was 10.76%, up 0.31 percentage points; the historical volatility in 40 days was 9.81%, down 0.13 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum's main contract was 11.67%, down 0.0054; the option call - put ratio was 1.24, down 0.0132 [2] 3.7 Industry News - There are different views within the Fed on interest rate cuts; the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for October, showing a slowdown in growth rates of multiple indicators [2] - The country aims to develop new productive forces, focusing on emerging and future industries; the State Council promotes "two - heavy" construction and consumer policies [2] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for sufficient and precise fiscal policies to promote economic balance [2]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1210.00 | +18.00↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1710.00 | +40.50↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 912812.00 | -22920.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 47574.00 | -2075.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -100998.00 | +1324.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3608.00 | +450.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 67.00 | +9.00↑ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 137.50 | -5.00↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 100.00 | 0.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insufficient demand is a significant challenge faced by countries with advanced production capacity and income levels, leading to various economic issues such as declining corporate revenues, reduced employment opportunities, and worsening social wealth [5][10][12]. Summary by Sections Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is described as a "disease of wealth," primarily affecting countries with high production capacity and income levels, while lower-income countries typically face supply shortages and inflation [5][28]. - The dangers of demand insufficiency are severe, potentially leading to acute economic collapse and long-term resource wastage if not addressed [5][12][19]. Understanding Demand Insufficiency - Understanding demand insufficiency requires analyzing four levels: economic development stage, triggers, market failures, and inadequate policy responses [26][28]. - Market failure is emphasized as a critical aspect in understanding demand insufficiency, influencing the choice of appropriate policy responses [5][10][19]. Policy Responses - Effective policy responses to demand insufficiency must meet three criteria: they must be external to market logic, target fast variables, and facilitate broad credit growth [40][41]. - Counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies are recognized as standard and effective remedies for demand insufficiency, although they often face public skepticism [6][41]. Historical Context - Historical examples of prolonged demand insufficiency include the Great Depression in the 1920s and Japan's "lost two decades" from 1992 to 2012, both characterized by persistent economic challenges due to insufficient demand [10][11][12]. Economic Impact - The impact of demand insufficiency includes significant declines in corporate income and profitability, leading to increased bankruptcies and reduced investment [13][14]. - The overall wealth of society diminishes, with falling corporate profits resulting in lower asset valuations and real estate prices [14][15]. Broader Consequences - Demand insufficiency also leads to a deteriorating business environment, increased external trade disputes, worsening income distribution, and heightened financial risks [18][19]. - The phenomenon can create a self-reinforcing negative cycle, where reduced spending leads to lower incomes and further decreases in demand [32][33]. Conclusion - Addressing demand insufficiency requires a comprehensive understanding of its complexities and the implementation of targeted, effective policies that can break the cycle of decline [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The book "Trade Policy Disaster" by Douglas A. Irwin examines the historical recurrence of trade protectionism, particularly during the Great Depression of the 1930s, and its implications for modern economic policy [2][8]. Group 1: Trade Protectionism - Trade protectionism is characterized by self-sufficiency and beggar-thy-neighbor policies, often implemented through high tariffs, import quotas, and foreign exchange controls, leading to the collapse of the international trade system [3][4]. - Once trade barriers are established, they can trigger retaliatory measures from other countries, resulting in a downward spiral that severely hampers global trade and economic recovery [3][8]. Group 2: Causes of Trade Protectionism - The author critiques the notion that trade protectionism arises solely from "special interest politics," arguing that during the Great Depression, the rapid decline in trade outpaced production, reducing external competitive pressures on domestic producers [4][5]. - The limited policy toolbox during the 1930s, particularly the adherence to the gold standard, restricted countries' ability to implement monetary policy, forcing governments to resort to trade restrictions [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Evidence - The book provides empirical evidence from 1930s Europe, where countries faced international balance of payments issues and divided into two models: those maintaining the gold standard and implementing trade protectionism, and those allowing currency devaluation for trade openness [7][8]. - Countries that abandoned the gold standard and adopted flexible monetary policies experienced less trade restriction and better economic recovery during the Great Depression, while those that maintained fixed exchange rates saw a dramatic 25% decline in global trade from 1929 to 1932 [8][9]. Group 4: Contemporary Relevance - The study highlights a persistent policy dilemma: during economic crises, countries must carefully balance their exchange rate and trade policies, recognizing the inherent conflicts between the two [9]. - The historical context of the gold standard's "trilemma" continues to resonate today, as developed economies face similar challenges in managing trade barriers and currency devaluation amidst economic pressures [9].

宏观：香港路演见闻 20251116 摘要 市场预期 2026 年货币政策延续宽松，尽管美联储近期释放鹰派信号， 但多数投资者仍预计 12 月降息，主要基于政府停摆导致的经济下行压 力。 市场对特朗普贸易政策存在分歧，关税政策不确定性大，中期选举前可 能采取增量宽财政措施以拉拢选票。 2025 年和 2026 年净财政宽松力度基本为零，需增量财政政策才能实 现真正宽松，如每个贫困家庭发放 2000 美元，但实施存在不确定性。 2026 年美国经济总体乐观，但依赖财政和货币双宽松，若缺乏进一步 宽松措施，居民部门信贷压力将增加，主要体现在车贷、银行卡和信贷 等方面。 市场继续看好黄金和 AI，尽管存在泡沫化担忧，但仍有上涨潜力。同时， 由于对双宽松状态的预期，对铜等大宗商品也持乐观态度。 近期市场对美联储降息预期出现变化，12 月降息预期从 70%降至 43%，但 2026 年 12 月的隐含降息预期仍维持在 3.3 附近，宽松货币 政策趋势未变。 AI 技术的应用带来 K 型影响，主要由富人消费驱动，高收入群体受益， 低收入群体面临就业压力，服务业外包经济体贸易账可能受冲击。 Q&A 近期权益市场风格切换的原 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.97%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from October, and the demand index is at 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.89%, down 0.02 percentage points from October, and the consumption index is at 49.69%, down 0.03 percentage points[7] Group 2: Industrial Production and Investment - Industrial production is experiencing a seasonal decline, with major industry operating rates decreasing month-on-month[17] - The operating rate for asphalt plants is at 29.00%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 33.42%, down 3.73 percentage points[31] - The construction work volume has shown a seasonal decline since November, indicating a need for further recovery in infrastructure investment[7] Group 3: Consumer Trends - Passenger car sales averaged 46,056 units per day in the week of November 9, down 10,644 units year-on-year, with retail sales for the first nine days of November at 415,000 units, a 19.0% decrease year-on-year[25] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 18.06 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.77 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg[42] Group 4: Export and Trade - The SCFI index for container shipping is at 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points, while the CCFI index is at 1094.03 points, up 35.86 points[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of November is at 6.40%, a significant recovery from the previous month[36] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The ELI index is at -0.58%, down 0.04 percentage points, indicating a continued decline in actual loan rates[12] - The net monetary injection for the week is 626.2 billion yuan, with the central bank conducting 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repos[48]

Domestic Economic Overview - In October, China's economic data showed contractions in both supply and demand, but structural highlights remain in consumption upgrades and new productivity[1] - The retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of November dropped by 18.8% year-on-year, while metro passenger volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year[2] - Fixed asset investment from January to October decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, indicating a need for increased investment to support economic growth[7] Production and Pricing Trends - As of November 16, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in production[3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.19% week-on-week drop in pork prices, while vegetable prices stabilized with a 0.14% increase[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) reflected mixed performance in black commodities, with coking coal prices down by 3.86% and iron ore prices up by 0.53%[7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been completed, with general government bonds issued amounting to 3093.2 billion yuan, achieving 89.5% of the issuance target[7] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a policy intent to maintain liquidity in the banking system[7] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 10-year yield at 1.8140% and the 30-year yield at 2.1481%[7] International Economic Context - The U.S. government ended a 43-day shutdown, with potential losses estimated at 1.5 trillion USD, impacting economic data releases[8] - New tariffs have been signed by Trump, adjusting the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" and affecting trade relations with multiple countries[8] - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty regarding inflation data due to the risk of missing October's CPI release, complicating monetary policy decisions[8]

1、核试验表态：特朗普称美国将开展核武器试验，但拒绝透露是否包含核弹头引爆；美能源部长此前 曾表示相关试验不涉及核爆炸。 2、关税政策调整：特朗普签署行政令，将部分农产品移出 "对等关税" 清单，新政策已生效；同时计划周五签署命令，降低牛肉、番茄等食品杂货关税，以缓解民生商品价格 压力。 3、爱泼斯坦案应对：特朗普要求司法部调查爱泼斯坦与克林顿、萨默斯及摩根大通的关系，同 时指责民主党借此事转移对政府停摆问题的关注。 4、空管人员薪资补发：11 月 14 日，停摆期间坚守 岗位的空管人员收到 70% 补发薪资，剩余部分将逐步发放；特朗普与交通部长提议为全勤空管人员发 1 万美元奖金。 5、俄乌冲突表态：特朗普表示，他希望乌克兰冲突能尽快得到解决。 6、评价欧洲： 在专访中称，受移民潮与财政政策影响，欧洲已 "不再是原来的欧洲"。 7、大豆出口预测下调：美国农 业部受特朗普政府委托预测，2025/26 市场年美国大豆出口量同比降 13%，因美国大豆涨价让南美廉价 供应更具竞争力。 8、BBC 纠纷进展：特朗普律师团队要求 BBC14 日前撤回涉其的 "拼接内容纪录片" 并道歉赔偿，否则索赔至少 10 亿美元，截 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Bottom - oscillating [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory data [1]. - It also presents relevant macro - news such as China's October social financing and loan data, and the end of the US government shutdown [3]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are provided, with aluminum and alloy at 1 (indicating a certain upward trend), and alumina at 0 (neutral) [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,050, up 170 from T - 1, 420 from T - 5, 1320 from T - 22, and 1260 from T - 66 [1]. - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,886, unchanged from T - 1, up 43 from T - 5, 216 from T - 22, and 247 from T - 66 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 295,292, up 71,494 from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,840, up 19 from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 299,017, up 31,054 from T - 1 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,340, up 95 from T - 1 and 245 from T - 5 [1]. - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 9,674, up 3,394 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from T - 1 [1]. - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 553,200 tons, up 9,100 tons from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2,868, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 346 US dollars per ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 142, down 57 from T - 1 [1]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,100, up 100 from T - 1 [1]. Macro - news - China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap widened to 2.0 percentage points from 1.2 in the previous month [3]. - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. The six - week shutdown was estimated to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points and cause a net loss of about 1.1 billion US dollars [3]