Export Changes - Since Trump's administration, China's export structure has adjusted, with a decrease in the share of exports to the U.S. and an increase to ASEAN and Africa, while exports to the EU have rebounded after two years of decline[11] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports to the U.S. accounted for approximately 11.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU increased to 17.8%, 5.6%, and 14.7% respectively[11] - By the end of 2024, China's export share of global exports was about 15.0%, rising to approximately 15.4% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in global market share[11] High-Frequency Tracking - Monitoring port cargo throughput can effectively reflect changes in China's export volume, showing a correlation with historical export trends[21] - South Korea's export growth is a key indicator of global demand, with a 5.4% increase recorded in early June 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in global demand[43] - Tracking the number of container ships from China to the U.S. provides insights into direct export trends, with a notable recovery in June but still weaker than March levels[43] Future Export Outlook - In an optimistic scenario, if the fentanyl tariffs are lifted and the exemption for reciprocal tariffs continues until the end of the year, the annual export growth rate could reach approximately 3.4%[57] - Conversely, under a baseline scenario, the annual export growth rate is expected to be around 2.1%, with risks of a decline in Q4 due to high base effects[57] - The end of the 90-day exemption period for tariffs on July 9, 2025, poses uncertainties for future export demand, as the U.S. may maintain its current tariff framework[54]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened export activities influenced by tariff fluctuations[12] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.7%, with real estate investment declining by 12%[21] - Retail sales growth increased to 6.4%, indicating enhanced consumer momentum, with service retail sales rising to 5.2%[26] Group 2: Real Estate Market - National real estate sales area growth rate dropped to -3.3%, with a two-year average growth rate narrowing to -12.4%[29] - New housing sales area growth rate continued to decline, while prices for new and second-hand homes showed a narrowing year-on-year decline[30] - Construction area growth rebounded significantly, but new construction area growth remained at -19.3%[30] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumption rebounded due to the combination of trade-in subsidies and increased holiday spending, with inbound tourism transactions increasing by 2.4 times in number and 1.3 times in value[13] - The growth rates for essential and discretionary consumer goods reached 8.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with two-year average growth rates also rising[26] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - External demand is expected to weaken as tariff exemptions expire, potentially impacting production and investment[13] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a steady employment situation despite economic fluctuations[33]

Core Viewpoints - The report utilizes a volume-price analysis framework to assess China's exports to the U.S. during the first round of trade friction and the impact of fentanyl tariffs, aiming to identify products with greater export resilience [3] - From a long-term perspective, technological barriers determine resilience, with high value-added products showing significant advantages. Industries with technological barriers and product differentiation exhibit stronger pricing power during long-term tariff impacts, creating a virtuous cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency." Recommended sectors include pharmaceuticals, electrical machinery and equipment, organic compounds, and aluminum products [3] - In the short term, the decline in exports is widespread, with more resilience reflected through re-export trade. Products with high import dependency from China show weak overseas substitution. The fentanyl tariff has caused a sharp decline in China's short-term exports to the U.S., with no significant differences among products of different natures. Products demonstrating export resilience through re-export trade include toys, furniture, footwear, glass products, miscellaneous non-ferrous metal products, and electrical machinery and equipment. Additionally, products with high import dependency from the U.S. show low overseas substitution rates, making it difficult for other countries to fill the demand gap. Attention should be paid to the replenishment demand from U.S. importers in high import dependency products, which may lead to export rebounds [3] Industry Analysis - Industries meeting all three criteria of long-term perspective, re-export trade, and high import dependency include electrical machinery and equipment. Industries meeting two criteria include organic compounds, miscellaneous products, and footwear. Industries meeting one criterion include pharmaceuticals, aluminum and its products, toys, furniture, glass products, miscellaneous non-ferrous metal products, knitted garments, and wooden products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of China's foreign trade amidst unprecedented uncertainty caused by the "reciprocal tariff" policy implemented by the Trump administration, with a steady growth trend observed in the first five months of 2025 [1] Trade Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with May's trade value at 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] - In May, China's export value was 2.28 trillion yuan, slightly up from 2.27 trillion yuan in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in USD terms, indicating strong economic resilience despite a decline in growth rate [1] Export Product Structure - The export product structure shows a divergence, with upstream raw materials, mobile phones, and home appliances experiencing weaker exports, while labor-intensive products like clothing, bags, and toys improved due to mature supply chains and production capabilities [2] - The export of electromechanical products remained robust, with integrated circuit exports showing significant growth, reflecting advancements in high-end manufacturing and industrial upgrades [2] Trade Partners - ASEAN, EU, and the US are the top three trading partners, with a decline in "rush exports" to emerging economies. Exports to the US decreased, with the share of US exports in China's total exports dropping from 10.46% in April to 9.12% in May [3] - Despite the decline in direct exports to the US, strong performance in exports to non-US countries has helped mitigate some of the impacts, with signs of recovery in exports to the US observed in late May [3] EU and Africa Trade - Exports to the EU grew by 12.02% year-on-year and 5.97% month-on-month in May, supported by marginal recovery in the Eurozone manufacturing sector [4] - Trade with Africa reached a historical high in the first five months, with exports to Africa increasing by 33.34% year-on-year, highlighting the importance of diversifying trade [4] Import Performance - In May, China's imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, with a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD. Imports from the US saw a significant decline due to tariff policies [5] - Imports from the EU showed improvement, recovering from a -16.5% decline in April to near 0 in May, reflecting deepening economic cooperation [5] - The decline in imports of major commodities like crude oil and iron ore indicates that domestic investment and industrial demand have not fully recovered, while imports of data processing equipment maintained high growth [5] Future Outlook - The article suggests that despite the complex global trade environment, China's foreign trade is expected to continue steady growth supported by ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade [5]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Composite Index (000680) decreased by 0.09% as of June 12, 2025 [3] - Among the constituent stocks, Luopute (688619) led with a rise of 19.98%, followed by Rongchang Bio (688331) with an increase of 16.80%, and Dadi Xiong (688077) up by 13.83% [3] - The ETF tracking the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Huaxia (589000), fell by 0.32%, with the latest price at 0.95 yuan and a turnover rate of 4.4%, totaling a transaction volume of 102 million yuan [3] Group 2 - After the Geneva meeting, a significant consensus on US-China tariffs was reached in mid-May, with expectations for an improvement in exports in June [4] - The impact of tariffs on trade is expected to weaken, and China can partially offset the negative effects of US tariffs through transshipment trade [4] - Despite a slight decline in overseas demand indicated by the global manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction for three consecutive months, the resilience of high-tech product exports is expected to support China's export momentum [4]

6月5日下午，我国商务部发言人在例行新闻发布会上表示，此次美方再一次提高钢铝及其衍生制品关税，不仅损 人害己，无助于维护产业安全，还将严重扰乱全球产业链供应链稳定。除此之外，加拿大、欧盟、日本等方面也 纷纷对该政策表示反对。那么，美国提升钢铁关税对我国的钢铁市场是否会造成影响？ 据海关发布的数据，2024年，我国累计出口钢材11071.6万吨，同比增长22.7%；累计进口钢材则为681.5万吨，同 比下降10.9%。同期，我国累计出口钢坯633.82万吨，同比增长93.28%；累计进口钢坯为178.4万吨，同比下降 45.38%。 而若将钢材折算成粗钢计算，粗钢净出口约1.13亿吨，同比增长31.5%，达到历史最高水平。不过，从数据占比上 来看，我国对美国钢材出口量占比较小。数据显示，2024年，我国对美国钢材的出口量仅为89.17万吨，占我国钢 材出口总量的0.81%。此外，美国国际贸易委员会发布的数据亦显示，美国在2024年进口价值1473亿美元的钢铝 产品，加拿大、墨西哥等则是其主要来源国。 兰格钢铁研究中心主任王国清对《华夏时报》记者表示，对于我国钢铁市场而言，钢铁直接出口美国影响有限。 但是，美国钢 ...

Export Data Summary - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, down from 8.1% in the previous month[1] - Imports totaled $212.9 billion, showing a decline of 3.4%, compared to a previous decline of 0.2%[1] - The trade surplus reached $103.2 billion, an increase from $96.18 billion in the previous month[1] Trade Dynamics - Tariff fluctuations have disrupted global trade, contributing to the decline in export growth[1] - The "grab export" effect has provided some resilience, with container throughput increasing by 1.4% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year in May[1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 34.5% year-on-year, while exports to the EU increased by 12%[1][12] Sector Performance - Integrated circuits and automotive exports showed strong growth, with integrated circuits up 33.4% and automotive exports including chassis up 13.7%[3][19] - Labor-intensive product exports declined, with a notable drop in mobile phone exports by 23.2%[3][19] Future Outlook - The overall export growth for 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, influenced by tariff impacts and global trade fragmentation[24] - Continued demand for Chinese products in ASEAN and EU markets is expected to support export resilience[25]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月09日 进出口数据快评 出口仍然展现较强韧性 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 6 月 9 日，海关总署数据显示，中国 5 月出口（以美元计价）同比增长 4.8%，进口同比下降 3.4%，贸易顺 差 1032.2 亿美元。 评论： 证券研究报告 图3：主要发达国家制造业景气度 图4：集装箱运价指数 出口仍然展现较强韧性 2025 年 5 月出口增速当月同比达到+4.8%，较 4 月+8.1%的水平继续回落。原因上看，关税带来的负面影响 逐步显现，5 月我国对美出口当月同比进一步下滑至-34.6%，对出口造成较大拖累，这也符合转口贸易抢 订单后逐步退潮的基本经验。但是，5 月在贸易形势面临较大压力的背景下仍然保 ...

每越过一道坎，义乌商人都学到了一些新的东西，成长起来一 些新的能力，他们就是中国外贸韧性具象化的呈现。 作者： 田进 高泽 美编：肖利亚 导读 壹 || 看似不起眼的小饰品，其上游却有100多家供应链企业来保证饰品的质量和品类完整，供应链的 完整度也是国内外贸企业最大的优势。 贰 || 冲击之下，聂自勤选择主动出击，由以往的"坐商"等客户到主动给各类客户打电话、发 信息，并将现有的货物主动发给外商以供挑选。 叁 || 胡春霞说："这次'关税战'着实给我们义乌的商户上了一课，但危机之中亦有转机。" 2024年下半年，当特朗普刚开始参加竞选时，好几位美国客户就提醒肖祥永要为中美关税战做好 准备，因为在特朗普1.0时期，特朗普就非常重视加征关税政策。 为此， 肖祥永准备了应急预案，但都没用上，因为125%的关税过于离谱，超出了想象。 一开始，肖祥永还焦虑过一段时间。他到处打听其他外贸商是怎么应对的，但到了四月底，他就稳 了下来，通过种种迹象，他和他周围的企业朋友几乎一致断定：中美高关税肯定持续不了多久。 4月2日，美国在此前单边加征关税的基础上，宣布对华加征所谓"对等关税"。此后一周内，美国 将"对等关税"税率从第 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the US-China tariff war on international trade, particularly focusing on the experiences of businesses in Yiwu, China [2][8][36] - Yiwu has developed a complex production, trade, and logistics network, making it a significant hub for small commodity exports to over 230 countries [6][8] - Business owners in Yiwu, like Xiao Xiangyong, have shown resilience and adaptability in response to changing trade conditions, including the recent tariff increases [7][11][19] Group 2 - The article highlights the proactive strategies adopted by Yiwu merchants to mitigate the effects of high tariffs, such as seeking alternative markets and adjusting pricing strategies [12][14][26] - The tariff situation has led to a significant drop in order volumes, with some businesses reporting a 30% reduction in foreign trade orders [14][22] - Despite challenges, Yiwu merchants are exploring new opportunities, including domestic market expansion and product innovation, to sustain their businesses [20][36][37] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a robust supply chain, as many Yiwu businesses rely on over 100 upstream suppliers to ensure product quality and variety [18] - The experiences of Yiwu merchants during the tariff war reflect broader trends in international trade, where adaptability and strategic planning are crucial for survival [19][31] - The article concludes with a call for Yiwu businesses to diversify their markets and enhance product value to remain competitive in a changing global landscape [36][37]