Core Points - The U.S. is in intense negotiations with major trade partners, including the EU, Canada, India, Japan, and South Korea, with a deadline approaching on July 9 for agreements to avoid higher tariffs starting August 1 [2][6] - The U.S. has only reached trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with other countries remain ongoing or stalled [2][4] - The U.S. has implemented a baseline tariff of 10% on trade partners during the negotiation period, despite a temporary suspension of the "reciprocal tariffs" initially announced by President Trump [2][4] Trade Agreements - The U.S. and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement where the U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, while Vietnam will not impose tariffs on U.S. goods [4][5] - The agreement with Vietnam includes commitments to eliminate non-tariff barriers and prioritize market access for U.S. agricultural and industrial products [5] - The U.S. has also agreed to lower tariffs on cars imported from the UK to 10% for a quota of 100,000 vehicles, while maintaining a 25% tariff on excess imports [5] Negotiation Status - India is expected to reach a mini trade agreement with the U.S. soon, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff, while the U.S. seeks greater access to Indian markets for industrial goods [6] - The EU is willing to accept a 10% baseline tariff but seeks exemptions for key sectors like pharmaceuticals and aircraft [6] - South Korea is requesting an extension of negotiation time and is advocating for reduced tariffs on its automotive and steel products [7] Challenges and Concerns - Japan's negotiations are stalled, with Prime Minister Kishida unwilling to compromise on key issues, emphasizing Japan's significant investment in the U.S. [8] - Canada is facing challenges due to U.S. dissatisfaction with its digital services tax and is seeking favorable terms in ongoing negotiations [8] - The overall trade environment is characterized by uncertainty, with various countries expressing concerns over the implications of U.S. tariff policies on global trade [3][6]

Core Points - The agreement between the US and Vietnam reflects the Trump administration's "America First" strategy and Vietnam's response to tariff pressures and the need for industrial upgrading [7] - The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Vietnamese goods from 46% to 20%, while imposing a 40% tariff on goods from third countries transiting through Vietnam [1][3] - Vietnam's economy is highly dependent on exports to the US, with a trade deficit of $123 billion, making the agreement crucial for maintaining competitive pricing in the US market [3] Group 1 - The agreement requires Vietnam to open its market to US goods with zero tariffs, impacting sensitive sectors like agriculture and automotive [1][5] - Vietnam's exports to the US are projected to reach $137 billion in 2024, with about one-third of these goods containing Chinese components, which are subject to the new 40% tariff [3] - The agreement does not address the long-standing US export restrictions on high-tech products to Vietnam, leaving the potential for industrial upgrading uncertain [5][7] Group 2 - The US aims to use Vietnam as a model to pressure other countries into aligning with its tariff negotiations, particularly in its dealings with China [5] - The influx of US agricultural and automotive products may severely impact Vietnam's local industries, which already struggle with low market shares [5][7] - The unequal nature of the agreement may lead to negative long-term effects on Vietnam's economy, potentially positioning it as a "market appendage" to the US [5][7] Group 3 - The situation presents a challenge for China, which may need to enhance oversight of its enterprises in Vietnam to avoid penalties from US tariffs [5][7] - China could leverage its significant trade volume with Vietnam, exceeding $220 billion, to implement targeted countermeasures [5] - Long-term strategies for China may include accelerating the Belt and Road Initiative to develop new supply chain nodes in Southeast Asia and collaborating with other economies to challenge the legality of the US's tariff policies [5][7]

Group 1 - The trend of transferring technology and production capacity from Chinese steel mills to Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is expected to continue, leveraging local resources and tariff advantages [1][6] - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S., significantly lower than the previously announced 46% tariff [1] - Vietnam is projected to become the largest export destination for Chinese steel in 2024, accounting for 11.5% of total steel exports [2][3] Group 2 - In 2024, China's steel exports are expected to reach 110.72 million tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [2] - The export volume to Vietnam has shown a significant decline in early 2025, with a 25.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [4][5] - The steel trade friction between China and countries like Vietnam and South Korea is increasing, with Vietnam imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products [3][4] Group 3 - The ASEAN region is experiencing strong demand for steel, particularly driven by Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, with total demand expected to reach approximately 80 million tons by 2025 [5][6] - Chinese steel companies are accelerating overseas investments, with notable projects in Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, indicating a strategic shift towards international production [6] - The Chinese steel industry is advised to maintain a balanced export strategy that meets domestic needs while also catering to international market demands [7]

周三，美国和越南达成了一项"好于预期"的贸易协议，越南所有对美出口商品的关税降至20%，结束了 为期三个月的不确定性。 对于越南以及在越南的中国制造商来说，这是一个可以接受的关税税率，能够支持他们继续在越南运 营。然而与此同时，新的贸易协议规定，将对被视为转运的商品征收40%的关税。 据报道，美国和越南举行了三轮谈判才达成这项协议。该协议还将越南对美国商品的关税降至零。新的 税率远低于特朗普4月初宣布的对越南商品征收46%的所谓"互惠"关税。 最新协议不仅对越南具有深远影响，对在越南注册工厂的中国本土制造商来说也是个好消息(中国企业 为越南的经济和工业做出了真正的贡献)，因为20%已经好于预期。 这个条件看似对越南很不利，但实际实施后的情况可能会让美国买家失望。这是因为美越两国的人均国 内生产总值(GDP)差距过于悬殊，许多美国出口产品并不适合越南市场，因此即使实施零关税，美国出 口预计也不会出现激增，这也解释了为什么越南会欣然接受美国这个看似无理的要求。 只不过这个"对转运的商品征收40%关税"有点耐人寻味。众所周知，经越南转运的商品有大部分来自中 国，这似乎是美国堵住转口贸易这条路的"最新手段"。 不过经 ...

Global Market Dynamics - The US stock market showed strong performance with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, driven by better-than-expected non-farm payroll data [3][10] - European markets also rose, with the UK leading gains amid reduced political uncertainty [10] - The A-share market in China saw an increase, particularly in sectors related to Apple and innovative pharmaceuticals [17] Trade and Economic Agreements - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40% tariff on goods subject to "transshipment" from China, complicating China's trade through Vietnam [6] - The agreement emphasizes the importance of origin certification, which may impact China's ability to utilize Vietnam for trade [6] - The report suggests that Chinese companies may accelerate overseas expansion, creating a new cycle of local production and consumption [6] Employment and Economic Indicators - The US added 256,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [9][10] - However, the report indicates underlying weaknesses in the job market, with a significant number of discouraged workers not counted in the labor force [9] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September due to ongoing economic concerns [9] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology stocks faced declines, while healthcare and materials sectors showed strength [12][13] - Macau's gaming industry is projected to recover, with a forecasted GGR growth of 7.6% in 2025, driven by increased market share for major operators [15] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the submarine cable sector, driven by AI and increased demand for deep-sea technology [20] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose following strong non-farm payroll data, with the yield curve flattening as the market adjusts to reduced rate cut expectations [29][32] - The report notes a significant increase in the US national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, alleviating immediate default risks [32] - Asian investment-grade bonds remained stable, with slight narrowing of spreads observed [32]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Vietnam has agreed to a trade deal with the U.S. that includes a 40% tariff on re-exported goods, which is primarily aimed at China, marking a significant shift in trade dynamics [1][5][10] - The trade agreement allows Vietnam to impose a 20% tariff on U.S. goods while maintaining a zero tariff on American products, which appears beneficial for Vietnam but ultimately favors the U.S. [5][12] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. are projected to reach $136 billion in 2024, with a trade surplus exceeding $123 billion, indicating that even with the new tariffs, Vietnam's overall benefits from trade with the U.S. remain substantial [7][12] Group 2 - The U.S. has been targeting "transshipment trade," where Chinese products are processed in third countries like Vietnam to avoid tariffs, and this has become a focal point in the ongoing trade war [3][9] - Vietnam's compliance with U.S. demands includes establishing a dedicated customs audit team and real-time customs networking to scrutinize supply chains for Chinese components, which could severely impact Chinese exports [9][10] - The agreement may set a precedent for future U.S. trade negotiations with other countries, potentially leading to a broader trade barrier against China [10][20] Group 3 - Vietnam's economic dependency on the U.S. is significant, with nearly 30% of its total exports directed to the U.S., making it vulnerable to U.S. tariff actions [12][14] - The internal industrial chain in Vietnam is incomplete, heavily relying on Chinese high-end equipment and raw materials, which complicates its position in the trade agreement [14][18] - China's response to the agreement has been firm, emphasizing that it will not tolerate any trade deals that undermine its interests, indicating potential retaliatory measures [16][18]

船舶产品拉动出口增长。前5个月，机电产品、石化产品强势拉动大连市出口增长。其中船舶出口98.3 亿元，同比增长58.7%，占大连市外贸出口总值的10.1%。同期，保税期货原油转口快速发展，共出口 保税原油65.8亿元，去年同期无出口记录。船舶和原油拉高大连市外贸出口增长12个百分点。 国有企业、外资企业保持增长。前5个月，大连国有企业进出口214.6亿元，同比增长16.7%。外资企业 进出口646.2亿元，同比增长11.1%。民营企业进出口1055.8亿元，同比下降0.4%。 新兴市场保持强劲势头。前5个月，大连市对马来西亚进出口保持强劲增长势头，进出口实现218.7亿 元，同比增长27.5%，继续保持大连市第二大贸易伙伴。传统市场方面，对日本进出口299.5亿元，同比 增长4.2%；对韩国进出口200.4亿元，同比增长19.3%；对沙特进出口125.4亿元，下降21.2%。(大连市 商务局供稿) 据大连海关初步统计，今年前5个月，大连市累计完成进出口总额1919.8亿元，同比增长5%，增幅高于 全国2.5个百分点，高于辽宁省6.8个百分点。其中，出口975.4亿元，同比增长17.2%；进口944.4亿元， ...

Market Performance - The major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.02%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical closing highs, increasing by 0.47% and 0.94% respectively [1] - Large tech stocks rebounded, with Tesla and Oracle both rising over 5%, while Nvidia and Apple increased by more than 2% [1] - Marvell Technology saw a decline of over 2.5% due to reports of Microsoft scaling back its ambitions in AI chip development [1] Trade Agreement with Vietnam - Former President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam, which is an increase from the current 10% [2] - The agreement includes a higher 40% tariff on goods that are transshipped through Vietnam from other countries [2] - Vietnam has agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. products, effectively opening its market to U.S. exports [2] Employment Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - ADP employment data revealed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector for June, marking the largest decline since March 2023, contrasting with an expected increase of 98,000 jobs [3] - The report indicated a rise in goods-producing jobs by 32,000, while service-providing jobs fell by 66,000, particularly in professional services, education, health services, and financial services [3] - Following the ADP report, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July increased to approximately 23%, up from 20% the previous day, with traders betting on at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [4]

Export Changes - Since Trump's administration, China's export structure has adjusted, with a decrease in the share of exports to the U.S. and an increase to ASEAN and Africa, while exports to the EU have rebounded after two years of decline[11] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports to the U.S. accounted for approximately 11.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU increased to 17.8%, 5.6%, and 14.7% respectively[11] - By the end of 2024, China's export share of global exports was about 15.0%, rising to approximately 15.4% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in global market share[11] High-Frequency Tracking - Monitoring port cargo throughput can effectively reflect changes in China's export volume, showing a correlation with historical export trends[21] - South Korea's export growth is a key indicator of global demand, with a 5.4% increase recorded in early June 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in global demand[43] - Tracking the number of container ships from China to the U.S. provides insights into direct export trends, with a notable recovery in June but still weaker than March levels[43] Future Export Outlook - In an optimistic scenario, if the fentanyl tariffs are lifted and the exemption for reciprocal tariffs continues until the end of the year, the annual export growth rate could reach approximately 3.4%[57] - Conversely, under a baseline scenario, the annual export growth rate is expected to be around 2.1%, with risks of a decline in Q4 due to high base effects[57] - The end of the 90-day exemption period for tariffs on July 9, 2025, poses uncertainties for future export demand, as the U.S. may maintain its current tariff framework[54]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened export activities influenced by tariff fluctuations[12] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.7%, with real estate investment declining by 12%[21] - Retail sales growth increased to 6.4%, indicating enhanced consumer momentum, with service retail sales rising to 5.2%[26] Group 2: Real Estate Market - National real estate sales area growth rate dropped to -3.3%, with a two-year average growth rate narrowing to -12.4%[29] - New housing sales area growth rate continued to decline, while prices for new and second-hand homes showed a narrowing year-on-year decline[30] - Construction area growth rebounded significantly, but new construction area growth remained at -19.3%[30] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumption rebounded due to the combination of trade-in subsidies and increased holiday spending, with inbound tourism transactions increasing by 2.4 times in number and 1.3 times in value[13] - The growth rates for essential and discretionary consumer goods reached 8.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with two-year average growth rates also rising[26] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - External demand is expected to weaken as tariff exemptions expire, potentially impacting production and investment[13] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a steady employment situation despite economic fluctuations[33]