1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.70%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.64% [2]. - In the short - term, due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, the risk aversion sentiment has escalated. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has begun to materialize [2]. - Trump's trade war escalation and the US government shutdown have increased market uncertainty [2]. - The labor market weakness has become the Fed's major concern in formulating policies. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. Currently, the market expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year is still about 2 [2]. - The implied lease rate of London silver has soared, indicating a tight supply of silver spot. The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and rise step - by - step in the medium - and long - term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Relevant Data**: - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $4130.00 per ounce, up $94.50 (2.34%) from the previous day and up $145.60 (3.65%) from last week; London gold closed at $4095.95 per ounce, up $121.45 (3.06%) from the previous day and up $146.50 (3.71%) from last week [3]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 11.42 yuan (1.23%) from the previous day and up 72.46 yuan (8.36%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 939.95 yuan per gram, up 13.47 yuan (1.45%) from the previous day and up 77.45 yuan (8.98%) from last week [3]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased by 1867 hands; the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 3.15 tons (- 0.33%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Relevant Data**: - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $50.78 per ounce, up $3.26 (6.86%) from the previous day and up $2.38 (4.91%) from last week; London silver closed at $51.24 per ounce, up $0.48 (0.95%) from the previous day and up $2.68 (5.51%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, up 2 yuan (0.02%) from the previous day and up 594 yuan (5.43%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,530 yuan per kilogram, up 77 yuan (0.67%) from the previous day and up 652 yuan (5.99%) from last week [6]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC management funds increased by 1937 hands; the iShare silver ETF increased by 358.49 tons (2.33%) [6]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25% [8]. - The Fed's total assets were $6641.668 billion, up $4.268 billion (0.00%) [8]. - M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year [8]. - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.07 ( - 2.93%) [8]. - The US dollar index was 99.24, up 0.41 (0.41%) from the previous day and up 0.65 (0.66%) from last week [8]. - The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.50, up 0.07 (16.28%) from the previous day and up 0.06 (12.77%) from last week [8]. Other Key Indicators - In terms of currency attributes, various inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industrial, and trade indicators have different degrees of change [10]. - In terms of risk - aversion attributes, the geopolitical risk index was 271.85, and the VIX index was 22.07, up 3.04 (15.97%) from the previous day and up 4.83 (28.02%) from last week [12]. - In terms of commodity attributes, the CRB commodity index was 295.54, up 2.78 (0.95%) from the previous day and down 5.53 ( - 1.84%) from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1348, down 0.0074 ( - 0.10%) [12]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations show different probabilities of interest rate ranges in different meeting dates from 2025 to 2027 [13].

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, is linked to Japan's new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, who advocates for a dovish monetary policy and increased economic stimulus [1] - The rise in gold prices reflects a broader trend of declining trust in fiat currencies globally, with various countries facing high debt-to-GDP ratios [3][4] Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold's price increase can be segmented into three phases: the first phase began with the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, leading to a significant accumulation of gold by central banks seeking non-freezable assets [2] - The second phase was triggered by the U.S.-China trade war initiated by Trump in April, which diminished confidence in the U.S. dollar's stability [2] - The third phase commenced in August when the Federal Reserve signaled potential interest rate cuts despite high inflation, further fueling gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2: Economic and Monetary Policy Implications - The current economic landscape shows that debt levels in developed economies are nearing or exceeding 100% of GDP, raising concerns about debt sustainability [3][4] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that rising debt costs and slowing nominal growth threaten the sustainability of debt in developed markets, predicting that by 2030, debt repayment costs will align with economic growth rates [4] - The potential shift in U.S. monetary policy under Trump, focusing on fiscal dominance, could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and increased inflation expectations, thereby elevating gold prices [5][6] Group 3: Japan's Economic Strategy - Japan's new prime minister supports a strategy that combines structural reforms with fiscal and monetary stimulus, which may lead to higher inflation if the Bank of Japan yields to government pressure [6] - The market signals indicate a long-term expectation of debt dilution through inflation, particularly in Japan, where long-term bond yields are rising [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 4.82%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.22%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate strongly in the short - term and rise in steps in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risks such as trade wars and the shutdown of the US government have increased, the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to materialize. Events such as the US government shutdown and the resignation of the French Prime Minister have increased market uncertainty, and geopolitical changes in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The Fed believes that the risk in the employment market has increased and remains vigilant about inflation. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. The market currently expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ratio, position, and inventory [2]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, position, and inventory [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets decreased by 21.792 billion US dollars, with a decrease of 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) changed, and there were also changes in other key indicators such as the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year - 10 - year), US - Europe yield spread, and US - China yield spread [7][9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related data changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Economic Growth and Employment**: GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, and other data showed different trends [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: Data such as existing home sales, new home sales, and new home starts in the US real estate market changed [9]. - **Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditure, industrial production index, and other data changed [9]. - **Trade**: US export, import, and trade balance data changed [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM services PMI, and other economic survey data changed [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, as well as IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, changed [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 21.50%, the VIX index decreased by 2.04%, the CRB commodity index increased by 1.27%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed [11].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has become the dominant asset in the international market due to expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and increased central bank purchases of gold [1][4][5] - On October 2, gold futures reached a historic high of $3,923 per ounce, closing at $3,912 on October 3, marking a new closing high [1] - The London spot gold price also surged to $3,880 per ounce, reflecting strong demand during the traditional consumption peak of "Golden September and Silver October" [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - The National Day holiday saw a significant increase in gold jewelry consumption, with prices for domestic gold jewelry reaching up to 1,130 yuan per gram [2][4] - Despite a busy holiday season, foot traffic for gold purchases was reported to be nearly half of last year's levels, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [4] - Investors express mixed feelings about past gold purchases, with many regretting not buying more in earlier years, highlighting gold's liquidity and value retention [4] Group 3: Institutional Predictions and Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with an upward risk to this forecast due to increased interest from private investors [5] - UBS anticipates a potential price correction in gold but expects it to reach $4,200 per ounce in the coming months [5] - HSBC suggests that geopolitical risks and financial uncertainties could drive gold prices above $4,000 per ounce [5] Group 4: Silver and Other Metals - Silver prices also reached a new high of $48.3 per ounce on October 3, with institutions predicting significant price increases for both gold and silver in the coming years [9] - Copper prices have surged, with the London Metal Exchange's copper futures breaking $10,700 per ton, driven by supply disruptions and anticipated demand growth [9][11] - The recent supply chain issues, including the declaration of force majeure at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine, have contributed to rising copper prices [11] Group 5: Market Comparisons and Investment Strategies - Gold mining stocks have outperformed technology stocks, with the global gold stock index rising approximately 135% this year compared to a 40% increase in semiconductor stocks [7] - The valuation of gold mining stocks remains more attractive than that of technology stocks, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 compared to 29 for semiconductor stocks [7] - Concerns about a potential AI bubble have led some investors to shift focus towards energy-related commodities, which may also benefit gold and silver prices [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data on Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) indicates a weaker-than-expected inflation trend, which may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo region's September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, below the market expectation of 2.8% [1] - This data reflects a marginal weakening of domestic inflation momentum in Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Despite the CPI data, most institutions and traders still anticipate that the Bank of Japan may implement a rate hike in October [1] - The rationale behind this expectation is that inflation in Japan has consistently exceeded the central bank's price stability target [1] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The weak yen is contributing to import-driven inflation pressures, which policymakers cannot overlook [1] - The recent global financial market sentiment has shown signs of weakening, with geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown concerns reinforcing the yen's traditional safe-haven status [1] Group 4: Market Reactions - The combination of disappointing inflation data and ongoing rate hike expectations has led to a tug-of-war in the yen's performance [1] - If global risk aversion continues to rise or if the Bank of Japan signals any unexpected normalization of policy, it could provide significant support for the yen in the medium term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.35% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.92%. The short - term investment strategy for both gold and silver suggests that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][6]. - The short - term core logic for gold includes increased trade - war concerns, ongoing worries about the Fed's independence, rising risks of U.S. economic stagflation, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Trump's new tariffs from the national to the industry level have broken the relatively calm trade situation, and there are still geopolitical disturbances in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more cuts this year. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise in a step - like manner in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力 contract's closing price increased by 0.25% compared to the previous day and 1.89% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions increased by 3.76% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai gold主力 positions decreased by 0.87% compared to the previous day but increased by 10.05% compared to the previous week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 183,220, an increase of 3,550 (41.27% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 23,066, a decrease of 251 (5.20% daily increase) [3]. Silver - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力 contract's closing price increased by 3.07% compared to the previous day and 8.00% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. The recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. For example, the total visible inventory decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous week [5][6]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 188,609, a decrease of 18,061 (22.28% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 95,783, a decrease of 1,179 (11.31% daily increase) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield increased by 0.83% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI increased by 0.20% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.10% year - on - year. The PCE price index increased by 0.14% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.05% year - on - year [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP decreased by 0.30% year - on - year in annualized terms but increased by 4.40% quarter - on - quarter in annualized terms. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10% [10]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, VIX index increased by 3.14% compared to the previous day, CRB commodity index increased by 0.55% compared to the previous day, and the offshore RMB increased by 0.39% compared to the previous day [11]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October 2025 is 89.3%, and the probability changes over different meeting dates in the future [12].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong performance, with prices continuously breaking historical highs, driven by various factors including monetary policy shifts, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Price Movements - On September 23, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.58%, reaching an intraday high of $3,824.60, marking a historical peak [1] - Year-to-date, international spot gold prices have risen approximately 43% from around $2,625 per ounce, while domestic market prices have increased about 38% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Influence - The recent rise in gold prices is directly influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, which included a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18 [3] - Market expectations indicate a 75.4% probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve in 2025, reinforcing support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global official institutions have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, with central banks net adding 166 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2025, continuing a trend of steady accumulation [4] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of over 90 central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting long-term recognition of gold's value [4] Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The current complex global geopolitical landscape, with ongoing tensions in various regions, has heightened market uncertainty and increased investor focus on asset safety [5] - Gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset has been further activated, making it a significant option for capital allocation in uncertain times [5] Group 5: Inflation and Investment Value - The structural volatility of global inflation has highlighted gold's value as a hedge against inflation, with U.S. inflation data rebounding to 2.9% in August, the second-highest this year [6] - The uncertain economic data and policy paths have attracted more medium- to long-term capital inflows into gold, emphasizing its property preservation characteristics [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factors include the phased achievement of trade agreements, concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations starting to materialize [2]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist, and Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year [2]. - The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. There has been a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the visible inventory of silver recently [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.83% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day; London gold at $3663.15 per ounce, up 0.53%; Shanghai gold main contract at 860 yuan per gram, up 0.53%; gold T + D at 856.27 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [3]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions increased by 4.73% from the previous week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 186.19%; Shanghai gold registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.38% [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,314, a decrease of 3,744; the top 10 totaled 150,089, a decrease of 2,445 [4]. 3.2 Silver - **Market Influencing Factors**: The price of gold is the anchor for silver prices. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in visible inventory [6]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $44.27 per ounce, down 0.11% from the previous day; London silver at $44.33 per ounce, up 1.35%; Shanghai silver main contract at 10,397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.46%; silver T + D at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72% [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions increased by 3.99% from the previous week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 32.90%; visible inventory decreased by 0.13% [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,866, an increase of 11,247; the top 10 totaled 166,336, an increase of 10,752 [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $66,593.66 billion, up 0.00% [9]. - **Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 3.02% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 97.23, down 0.10% from the previous day [9]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.20 from the previous value; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10% [11]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index is 128.06, up 1.97% from the previous week; VIX index is 16.50, down 0.84% from the previous day; CRB commodity index is 299.88, up 0.72% from the previous day [12]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different times in the future is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate adjustments [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 0.41% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.64%. The short - term core logic includes: in terms of short - term hedging, trade agreements are being reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at high levels in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver decreased slightly, and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. Summary by Section Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) also rose. The basis and spreads, and various ratios showed different changes. The positions of Comex gold increased, while the positions of Shanghai gold main contract decreased. The inventories of LBMA and Shanghai gold remained stable, while the Comex gold inventory decreased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased slightly [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai gold futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [7]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) showed mixed trends, and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) increased. The basis and spreads changed. The positions of Comex silver decreased, while the positions of Shanghai silver main contract increased. The visible inventory of silver increased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the iShare silver ETF inventory increased [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai silver futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the VIX index increased, while the geopolitical risk index decreased significantly [9][12]. - **Interest Rate Spreads and Inflation**: The US - EU and US - China interest rate spreads (10 - year bond yields) increased. The CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change. The inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [11]. - **Economic Indicators**: GDP growth showed different trends in annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate increased, and non - farm payrolls decreased. The labor participation rate decreased, and average hourly wage growth slowed down. Other economic indicators in the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys also showed various changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The central bank gold reserves of China increased slightly, while those of the US remained stable. The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign exchange reserves increased, while the proportion of the euro decreased. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves increased globally and in China and the US [12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate range in different periods from October 2025 to October 2027 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,650 per ounce, breaking the inflation-adjusted historical high from January 1980. This surge is causing pressure for consumers, particularly those preparing for weddings, to decide whether to purchase gold now or wait for a potential price drop [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The gold market is in an upward channel, with a long-term trend of de-dollarization continuing. Consumers are advised to buy at relatively low points [1]. - In the first half of the year, China's gold consumption reached 505.205 tons, with jewelry consumption dropping by 26% to 199.826 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 23.69% increase in consumption [3]. - Major financial institutions remain bullish on gold, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce and Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly focused on the practicality of gold purchases, with a preference for items that have high liquidity and lower processing costs, such as gold bars and coins, over more expensive jewelry [3]. - The timing of gold purchases is crucial; consumers are advised to avoid peak seasons like the Spring Festival and National Day, opting instead for the off-peak months of April to June for better pricing opportunities [3]. - When purchasing gold jewelry, consumers should prioritize high-purity items (99.9% purity) and avoid high-cost craftsmanship items that may lead to poor resale value [3].