证券时报记者 许孝如 在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪录。1月29 日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口。 国际金价上涨传导至终端消费市场，多家黄金珠宝品牌最新公布的境内足金饰品价格普遍突破1700元/克，创历史 新高。 当日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄金需求 总值飙升至5550亿美元，同比增长45%。 随着金价屡创新高，市场分歧正在加大。业内人士表示，短期内，情绪驱动下的波动或将放大；中长期而言，黄 金能否继续走高，仍取决于全球风险格局、货币政策走向以及投资需求的持续性。 黄金需求创纪录 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创 下新高。从结构看，投资需求成为推动2025年全球黄金需求创纪录的核心力量。 报告显示，2025年全球黄金投资需求攀升至2175吨，首次站上2000吨以上的水平。其中，全球黄金ETF全年净增持 801吨，创下历史第二高年度增量。持续的地缘政治风险、全球经济不确定性以及主要 ...

全球市场，正在为黄金而"沸腾"。 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄 金需求总值飙升至前所未有的5550亿美元，同比增长45%。 在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪录。当 日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口，伦敦金本月涨幅高达28%。 金价的凌厉上涨，也迅速传导至终端消费市场。多家黄金珠宝品牌当日公布的足金饰品价格普遍突破1700元/ 克，再创历史新高。 突破5000吨！黄金需求创纪录 1月29日（周四），世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求 达5002吨，创历史新高。 从结构看，投资需求成为推动2025年全球黄金需求创纪录的核心力量。 报告显示，2025年全球黄金投资需求攀升至2175吨，首次站上2000吨以上的里程碑水平。其中，全球黄金ETF 全年净增持801吨，创下历史第二高年度增量。持续的地缘政治风险、全球经济不确定性以及主要经济体政策 博弈，使得大量资金涌入黄金ETF，寻求避险与资产多元化配置。 中国央行方 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating upward, and closing sharply higher on Thursday. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Thursday. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating upward, and rising sharply on Thursday. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium has rebounded, and short - term oil prices will maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.45 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.03%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.95% [8]. - In the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [8]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, with a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - In the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 83,300 tons [10]. - In the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 25.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was 84.70%, a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [10]. - In the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 111,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 255,600 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory was 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,100 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 63 [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 278,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 515,000 barrels [12]. - The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 20,664 contracts and an increase of 20,021 contracts from the December average, an increase of 34.07%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 12,405 contracts and an increase of 100,312 contracts from the December average, an increase of 95.12% [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 16,250 yuan/ton | +300 yuan/ton | 16,690 yuan/ton | +330 yuan/ton | - 440 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,325 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | 2,352 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | - 27 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 441.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 472.5 yuan/barrel | +12.2 yuan/barrel | - 31.6 yuan/barrel | - 12.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - spread, inventory, and net position changes [15][21][40]

外汇市场方面，美元指数近期再度下探至2022年初以来的低位区间，未能延续此前的修复走势，为不具 备利息收益属性的黄金提供了有利环境。即便部分风险资产短线企稳，资金在资产配置层面的避险倾向 并未发生实质性改变。与此同时，地缘政治风险持续升温。美国总统特朗普就伊朗核问题释放更为强硬 的政策信号，伊朗方面则明确表示将对任何潜在军事行动作出迅速回应。此外，俄乌冲突仍在延续，针 对乌克兰城市及基础设施的空袭尚未出现明显缓和，最新无人机袭击造成平民伤亡，进一步加剧市场对 地区安全局势的担忧。 在宏观层面，德国下调未来两年的经济增长预期，引发市场对全球经济前景的再度评估。贸易政策不确 定性与美元疲软相互叠加，使黄金在多重风险因素共振下维持强势运行。从技术角度观察，黄金短期动 能指标已明显进入超买区间，但价格结构显示，多头趋势尚未出现实质性松动。市场对回调的接受度依 然有限，逢低配置需求仍占主导位置。部分资金选择在高位放缓追涨节奏，等待新的宏观数据或事件线 索，以重新评估风险敞口。 整体来看，金价持续运行于历史高位，并非由单一因素驱动，而是避险需求上升、美元走弱以及对美联 储制度稳定性的担忧共同作用的结果。在宏观环境与地缘局 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. The price center shifted slightly up to 16,360 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.24% increase. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 80 yuan/ton. Driven by the collective stabilization and rebound of the energy - chemical sector, the rubber price is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. The price reached a maximum of 2,348 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,294 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.43% increase. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 21 yuan/ton. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and rising significantly on Wednesday. The price reached a maximum of 463.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 446.5 yuan/barrel, closing with a 2.49% increase. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium rebounded, and the short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises fluctuated. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had support from foreign trade orders, and the production scheduling of the devices increased slightly, while most other enterprises maintained stable production scheduling. The full - steel tire had increased shipment pressure, and some enterprises had a moderate production control phenomenon, dragging the capacity utilization rate slightly lower. Currently, it is in the pre - "Spring Festival" inventory preparation stage, and most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production scheduling to reserve inventory and meet post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new historical high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period of the previous year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 25.43%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.33%. In addition, the dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 84.70%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant increase of 255,600 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 410, a week - on - week slight increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant increase of 14.386 million barrels compared with the same period of the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 25.063 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.478 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 414.5 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 806,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 93.3%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts or 34.07% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts or 95.12% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,360 yuan/ton | +155 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,305 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,339 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | - 34 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 427.3 yuan/barrel | - 2.4 yuan/barrel | 460.3 yuan/barrel | +13.6 yuan/barrel | - 33.0 yuan/barrel | - 16.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Includes charts of rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][18][22][24][26]. - Methanol: Includes charts of methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - Crude Oil: Includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][43][45][47][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views - On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to around 16,200 yuan/ton, closing 0.31% lower at 16,205 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. Affected by the collective correction of the energy and chemical sector, it is expected that the rubber price may maintain a fluctuating trend in the future [6]. - On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 2,336 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,285 yuan/ton, closing 1.07% lower at 2,304 yuan/ton, and the discount of the May - September spread widened to 25 yuan/ton. As the geopolitical risks weaken, the methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [6]. - On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating and falling back, and slightly closing lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 454.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 442.4 yuan/barrel, closing 0.93% lower at 446.7 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East weaken, the premium part of crude oil has been partially reversed, and the short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%, and the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises showed mixed trends. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had support from foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule increased slightly, while most other enterprises maintained stable production schedules. The all - steel tire shipment pressure increased, and some enterprises had moderate production control, dragging the capacity utilization rate slightly lower. Currently, it is in the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking period, and most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production schedules to reserve inventory for post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In total, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market in 2025 reached a new high in the past four years at 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 25.43%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.33%. In terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 5.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 84.70%, a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant increase of 255,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 14.386 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.063 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.478 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 414.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 806,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 93.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts or 34.07% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts or 95.12% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 16,205 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 255 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,315 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | 2,304 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | + 11 yuan/ton | + 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 429.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.6 yuan/barrel | - 17.0 yuan/barrel | - 10.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, May - September spread, warehouse inventory, and tire production rates), methanol (such as methanol basis, May - September spread, port and inland inventory, and production rates of related derivatives), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, inventory, and net position changes). The data sources for these charts are from Wind and the Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [15][28][40].

阿萨社区分析师 Eden认为，这种短时间内概率的极速跳升，反映出市场对华盛顿决策效率的深度绝望，也为避险资产的二次爆发埋下了伏笔。 近期，美国政府停摆风险骤然升温，引发了全球金融市场的剧烈震荡。根据预测平台 Polymarket 的最新数据显示，美国联邦政府在 1 月底前发生停 摆的概率已从上周的不足 10% 疯狂飙升至 78%。 这一突发性的风险溢价，正迫使投资者重新审视资产组合，尤其是在金价已然突破 5000 美元/盎司 大关的背景下，政策不确定性正成为金市最强劲 的"助燃剂"。 当全球主要预测平台纷纷给出政府关门的高概率信号时，资金流向黄金以寻求避风港已成为一种"防御性本能"。这种重新定价的过程，不仅反映了 对短期停摆的担忧，更揭示了市场对中长期规则风险的极度戒备。 本次停摆危机的直接导火索，是1月25日明尼阿波利斯发生的联邦执法人员开枪事件。由于一名边境巡逻队特工开枪导致当地居民死亡，民主党参 议员集体对国土安全部展现出强硬立场，拒绝支持包含DHS拨款的一揽子支出法案。 核心矛盾在于民主党认为移民和海关执法局及海关与边境保护局的权力已处于失控边缘。 如果参议院无法在 1 月 31 日午夜前达成共识，卫 ...

- The report tracks and analyzes the market data of major indices, including their performance, moving averages, turnover rates, and risk premiums[1][2][3] - The indices' daily performance is evaluated, with the CSI 500 showing the highest annual increase of 13.95%, followed by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000[10] - The comparison of indices with their moving averages and the highest and lowest points over the past 250 trading days is provided, showing significant pullbacks after reaching new highs[12][13] - The turnover rates of various indices are analyzed, with the CSI 2000 having the highest turnover rate of 5.34%[16] - The distribution of daily returns is examined, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest negative skewness and the CSI 500 the smallest[22][23] - The risk premiums of the indices relative to the 10-year government bond yield are calculated, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 having the highest 5-year percentile values[25][26][29] - The PE-TTM ratios of the indices are analyzed, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having the highest 5-year percentile values of 99.92%[37][40][41] - The dividend yields of the indices are tracked, with the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 having the highest 5-year historical percentile values[45][51][53] - The percentage of stocks trading below their net asset value is analyzed, with the Shanghai 50 having the highest percentage of 24.0%[52][55]

当市场仍在惊叹国际金价逼近5000美元/盎司关口、距离多家投行陆续上调后的目标值仅一步之 遥时，黄金以一个月级别的两位数涨幅并在高位维持相对有限的回撤，给出了更直白的表达——这 轮行情的主线，已不再是利率能解释的世界。 与之对应，金银比（黄金与白银的价格比例）一度跌破 50，最低约48—49，触及2011年以来的 低位区间。金银比的快速下行往往意味着贵金属内部相对价格出现偏离，一旦进入极端区域，均值 回归或迟或早，只是路径未必温和，更可能以非线性方式完成修复。 白银的表现更像交易属性的极致化。市场体量更小、波动更大、叙事更复杂，使得白银既能跟随黄 金的"避险和储备逻辑"，又能叠加"工业与科技需求"的故事线，从而在情绪与资金共振时形成更 陡峭的加速上涨曲线。数据显示，白银在1月中下旬冲击100美元关口，26日盘中摸高至108美 元，当月涨幅逾40%。 在如此涨势下，资金行为却呈现追高配置的特征。数据显示，部分黄金ETF（交易型开放式指数证 券投资基金） 在高位继续增持。例如，1月23日，全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Shares （GLD）单日增加6.87吨，总持仓升至1086.53吨。 金银比走向 ...

5093美元/盎司——这是2026年1月26日早盘伦敦现货黄金价格触及的新高。 回看黄金的短线抬升，走势呈现典型的"拾台阶"结构：上涨连续、回撤有限、重心上移。问题因此不再 是"黄金在涨什么"，而是黄金在用极端价格表达什么？ 一个更具解释力的线索，来自"储备结构的自我加固"。 2026年1月20日，丹麦的养老基金AkademikerPension宣布计划在月底前清仓约1亿美元美债；同日，波 兰央行批准再购入150吨黄金，使其黄金储备跻身全球前十位。丹麦处于格陵兰岛议题的敏感位置，其 养老基金给出的理由是对美国公共财政与长期可持续性的担忧，并承认围绕格陵兰岛等议题的紧张气 氛，使这一财务决策更容易落地。波兰毗邻乌克兰，在俄乌冲突可能再生变量的背景下，更倾向把"无 对手方风险"的黄金作为制度性安全资产的加厚层。 一个在北欧、一个在东欧，处在各自地缘压力带上的经济体，都在用储备结构为自己加固城墙，两者差 异只在于，丹麦对美债久期与信用叙事更敏感，波兰更愿意用黄金来增加制度确定性。 如果说贵金属价格的极端表现，是市场情绪的喷薄，那么储备结构的数据变化，则更像慢变量的转向。 国际货币基金(IMF)的COFER(官方外汇 ...