凤凰网财经讯9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精英， 共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求在论坛上表示："A股牛市不是真的要来了，是已经来了，实际上早在两三个月前便已开启。未来 市场站上4000点不存在悬念，尽管近期出现短期波动，但长期向好的大趋势不会改变"。 吴晓求指出，本轮市场行情能够形成持续成长态势，有着深刻的内在动因，核心在于多维度改革，包括资产端改革、需求端改革及制度层面改革，这些均构 成了市场成长的核心内在动力。对于部分市场参与者担忧本轮牛市可能"昙花一现"的观点，他强调，行情的延续性具备坚实的内在逻辑支撑。 回顾A股历史，牛短熊长和暴涨暴跌曾是显著特征，吴晓求分析，这一现象根源在于过去市场结构失衡、缺乏持续增长动能，且投机属性较为突出。而如 今，这一局面已发生根本性转变。 首先是资产端的改革。资产端的改革与上市公司结构的调整，为市场注入了长期成长活力。正如证监会主席吴清在新闻发布会上披露的数据，A股前50家上 市公司中，科技性企业数量已从"十三五"末 ...

Group 1 - The major indices in the A-share market are experiencing significant gains, with the technology sector continuing to lead the rally, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1][3][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to catch up and break through the 4000-point mark, with potential support from sectors like liquor, securities, and real estate [8] - The technology index is currently in a phase of short-term speculative trading, with limited upward movement anticipated, reflecting a broader trend seen in both Hong Kong and US technology indices [4][6] Group 2 - The market is characterized by a tendency for rapid recovery after sharp declines, suggesting that investors who avoid major downturns may find it challenging to re-enter the market during subsequent rallies [1][6] - There is a belief that the current bull market is in its second round, with opportunities for profit-taking and reinvestment in lower-pressure indices rather than chasing high-flying stocks [4][6][8] - The sentiment in the market is driven by large institutional players, with retail investors often feeling compelled to follow trends rather than adhering to their own investment principles [6][8]

Core Points - A new round of financial policies has been introduced, initiating a new market trend in A-shares, with major indices experiencing significant growth and over 1,400 stocks doubling in value [1][3]. Market Overview - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased from 70.79 trillion yuan to 103.92 trillion yuan, adding 33.13 trillion yuan [4]. - Major indices have shown remarkable growth, with the North China 50 Index leading at a 158.01% increase, followed by the Sci-Tech 50 Index at 118.85% and the ChiNext Index at 103.50% [3][4]. Industry Performance - All 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification have recorded gains, with the electronics, media, and comprehensive sectors leading with increases of 203.35%, 177.08%, and 129.05% respectively [6][7]. - Traditional cyclical sectors such as oil and petrochemicals have lagged, with increases of less than 10% [6]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 5,137 stocks have risen, with 1,431 stocks doubling in value, and 38 stocks increasing by over 500% [9]. - Notable stocks with over 500% gains include Shangwei New Materials (1720.5%), *ST Yushun (1133.01%), and Shenghong Technology (1061.66%) [10]. Small-cap Stocks - The Wind Micro-cap Index has surged by 118.15%, with over 70% of the doubling stocks having a market capitalization of less than 5 billion yuan [12]. Declining Stocks - Despite the overall positive trend, 187 stocks have declined, with the worst performer, Zitian Tui, dropping by 96.2% due to severe financial fraud [12][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current bull market is not over, a pause is expected in the short term, with market dynamics likely to shift based on policy developments in the fourth quarter [19].

见习记者丨 李益文 编辑丨叶映橙 2024年9月24日，一揽子金融政策出台，开启A股新一轮行情。 一年来，A股市场交出亮眼答卷：主要指数全线飙升，总市值突破百万亿元大关，超1400只个 股实现翻倍，微观活力与结构性牛市特征显著。 A股总市值突破百万亿元 北证5 0指数涨幅超1 5 0% 各项利好政策催化下，A股主要指数均实现跨越式涨幅。上证指数累计上涨39.03%，深证成指 涨62.31%，北证50指数、科创50指数、创业板指涨幅均超100%，其中北证50指数以158.01% 的涨幅领跑各主要指数，市场整体呈现"成长强于价值"的特征。 | | | "924行情"以来各主要指数涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 收盘价（点） | 涨跌幅% | | 899050.BJ | 北证50 | 1547.45 | 158.01 | | 000688.SH | 科创50 | 1407.30 | 118.85 | | 000680.SH | 科创综指 | 1645.56 | 116.14 | | 399006.SZ | 创业板指 | 3114.55 | 103. ...

Market Overview - A-share market has seen significant growth, with total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, increasing by 33.13 trillion yuan from 70.79 trillion yuan on September 24, 2024 [2][3] - Major indices have experienced substantial gains, with the North Exchange 50 Index leading at a 158.01% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 39.03% [2][3] Industry Performance - All 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification have recorded gains, with the electronics, media, and comprehensive sectors leading with increases of 203.35%, 177.08%, and 129.05% respectively [4] - Traditional cyclical sectors such as oil and petrochemicals lagged behind, with gains of less than 10% [4] Stock Performance - Over 1,400 stocks have doubled in price, with 5137 stocks rising, representing over 90% of the total [6][8] - Notable stocks with over 500% gains include Shangwei New Materials (1720.5%), *ST Yushun (1133.01%), and Shenghong Technology (1061.66%) [6][12] Small-cap Growth - The Wind Micro-cap Index has surged by 118.15%, with over 70% of the doubling stocks having a market cap below 5 billion yuan [8] - Small-cap stocks are favored due to their significant performance potential and lower capital requirements for price increases [8] Declining Stocks - Despite the overall market growth, 187 stocks have declined, with the largest drop being 96.2% for Zitian Tui due to severe financial fraud leading to delisting [9][12] - The top ten declining stocks include several from the power equipment and basic chemical sectors [12] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current bull market is not over, a pause is expected as the market seeks balance amid policy uncertainties [12][13] - The market is currently at a reasonable valuation level, and future policy directions will be crucial for restoring market confidence [12][13]

Group 1 - A-share market has seen significant growth, with total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, reflecting a structural bull market characterized by micro vitality [1][2] - Major indices have experienced substantial increases, with the North Stock 50 Index leading at a 158.01% rise, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 39.03% and 62.31% respectively [2] - The market has added three new members to the trillion-yuan market cap club, including Ningde Times, Industrial Fulian, and China Merchants Bank, indicating a recovery in valuations for leading companies [2] Group 2 - Among 31 first-level industries, electronics, media, and comprehensive sectors led the gains with increases of 203.35%, 177.08%, and 129.05% respectively, while traditional cyclical sectors like oil and coal lagged behind with gains of less than 10% [3] - The performance of individual stocks has been notable, with over 1,400 stocks doubling in price, and 38 stocks rising over 500%, highlighting a strong small-cap growth style [4] - The Wind micro-cap index surged by 118.15%, with over 70% of the doubling stocks having an initial market cap below 5 billion yuan, attracting speculative investments [4] Group 3 - The market has seen a mix of performance, with 187 stocks declining, including a significant drop of 96.2% for Zitian Tui due to severe financial fraud leading to delisting [5] - In the top ten stocks with the largest declines, only one was a non-ST company, indicating a concentration of poor performance in troubled firms [5] - Analysts suggest that while the current bull market is not over, a pause is expected as the market seeks balance, with future policy directions likely to influence market confidence [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent market rally since the "9·24" event has led to significant increases in Chinese assets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating the onset of a new bull market [1][2] - This bull market is characterized by a more stable and sustainable wealth effect, with the stock market becoming a new reservoir for residents' assets, replacing real estate [3] Group 2: Differences from Previous Bull Markets - The current bull market is supported by more precise and effective policies, including structural monetary policy tools introduced by the central bank to support capital markets [2][3] - There is a notable shift in the funding structure, with institutional funds, particularly long-term funds like insurance and pension funds, playing a dominant role, leading to a transition from speculative trading to profit-driven investment [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Emerging technologies, particularly in AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are expected to remain the main investment themes, supported by favorable industrial policies [4][5] - Other sectors such as photovoltaic, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials are also seen as potential opportunities due to the positive impact of anti-involution policies [4][5] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased by 47% from September 2024 to August 2025, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, but the overall trend remains upward, with expectations for the index to reach new highs within the year due to supportive internal policies and improving overseas liquidity [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant growth and transformation over the past year, marked by strong performance across major indices, increased market capitalization, and heightened trading activity. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen nearly 40% over the past year, while the Shenzhen Component Index has increased over 60%, with indices like the ChiNext and STAR Market doubling in value [2][4] - The overall market has exhibited bull market characteristics, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining over 1,000 points and demonstrating a "slow bull" trend since April [2][4] - A-share indices have outperformed global counterparts, leading the market in growth [2] Group 2: Market Capitalization - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching approximately 104 trillion yuan by September 22, 2025, reflecting a growth of over 30 trillion yuan and an increase of over 40% year-on-year [3][24] Group 3: Trading Volume - Daily trading volume has significantly increased, with over 20 trillion yuan becoming the "new normal" for daily transactions since August 13, 2025, marking a historical record [4][29] - The average daily trading volume in September 2025 reached 24.6 trillion yuan, more than tripling compared to the same period last year [4][29] Group 4: Valuation Levels - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for all A-shares has risen from 15.69 times on September 24, 2024, to 22.18 times by September 22, 2025, indicating a valuation increase of approximately 40% [6][30] - There is a notable divergence in valuation increases among different market segments, with the ChiNext and STAR Market experiencing relatively larger gains [7] Group 5: Margin Financing - The margin financing balance has reached approximately 2.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 70% [9][10] - The margin financing balance has consistently set new historical highs, surpassing key thresholds throughout the year [10][11] Group 6: Changes in Leading Companies - The ranking of top companies by market capitalization has shifted, with Industrial Fulian entering the top ten, while the market capitalizations of Kweichow Moutai and China Petroleum have declined [12][35] Group 7: Stock Price Trends - The number of low-priced stocks (below 2 yuan) has significantly decreased to 32, down from 161 a year ago, indicating a general rise in stock prices [13][39] - Conversely, the number of stocks priced at or above 100 yuan has increased to 167, compared to just 38 a year ago, reflecting heightened market enthusiasm [15][41] Group 8: Sector Performance - Major industry sectors have all seen increases, with technology-related sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and machinery achieving over 100% growth [18][47] - Traditional sectors like coal and banking have lagged behind in performance [18][47] Group 9: ETF Growth - The total scale of ETFs has surpassed 5 trillion yuan, marking an increase of over 80% from the previous year, and indicating a growing influence of ETFs on the A-share market [19][48]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently facing short-term fluctuations due to trading structure and risk appetite, but the long-term bull market logic relies on a trend of sustained capital inflow, suggesting that adding positions during pullbacks is a better strategy [1][12] - The A-share market is entering a period of consolidation, with two main factors influencing this judgment: the technology sector, a key driver of the bull market, is experiencing a relatively crowded chip structure, and the marginal weakening of the economic fundamentals makes it difficult for the market style to shift to low-position consumer and cyclical sectors [1][12] Group 2 - The report highlights a decline in market profitability, with the technology sector's chip structure becoming relatively crowded, necessitating a time-for-space approach. Since the market's rise starting June 23, the index has increased by 18.18%, with the TMT sector contributing 42% [2][13] - Current unfavorable factors for the technology sector include: 1) a decrease in market profitability and overall risk appetite, with only 32% of stocks rising this week, marking a low point in this rally; 2) the TMT sector's trading volume has reached 37%, and historically, when this figure exceeds 40%, a pullback typically follows; 3) the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices are showing signs of divergence in volume and price; 4) the "calendar effect" before the National Day indicates a lower probability of index gains, with a 60% chance of decline in the five trading days leading up to the holiday [2][13] Group 3 - Economic data has shown marginal weakening, making it difficult to shift styles to consumer and cyclical sectors. In August, production, investment, consumption, and exports all weakened compared to July. The September LPR remains unchanged, with no intention to cut rates. CPI in August was -0.4% year-on-year, and PPI was -2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline [3][14] - The report suggests that the long-term bull market is not yet over, with indicators such as equity risk premium (ERP), the rate of economic securitization, and the ongoing increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions indicating significant upside potential for A-shares [3][14] Group 4 - The report anticipates that the narrative of a soft landing and re-inflation in the U.S. economy will return in the fourth quarter. Despite recent trade tensions and disappointing non-farm payroll reports, employment data is expected to be revised upward, and the economy is showing signs of steady growth, with the second quarter GDP growth revised to 3.3% [4][27] - The report notes that core inflation remains sticky, with indicators showing a potential for re-inflation in the fourth quarter. The housing market is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures as mortgage rates decline and loan application activity rises [4][27] Group 5 - Compared to the U.S., the Eurozone faces greater fiscal challenges, which may lead to a rebound in the dollar index and make U.S. stocks the best choice among major asset classes. The Eurozone's economic data has been weaker than that of the U.S., and the euro's significant appreciation has reduced export competitiveness [6][44] - The report indicates that speculative long positions in the euro have reached historically high levels, while short positions remain low, suggesting that there is still considerable room for adjustment in the trading structure [6][44]

Group 1 - The direct impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on A-shares is limited, and the current bull market is driven by the enhancement of the stock market's status and the upgrade of the technology industry [1] - The traditional "pre-holiday effect" in A-shares indicates that market performance is usually subdued before long holidays as funds adjust their trading strategies based on news during the break [2] - Key events in September that have influenced market expectations include military industry speculation driven by the "September 3rd Military Parade," significant investments from Oracle, valuation recovery of CATL, Huawei's report on "Smart World 2035," and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The financial sector's leading companies include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Ping An, and CITIC Securities [4] - The technology sector's leading companies include Cambricon Technologies, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Sanhua Intelligent Controls [5] - The market is currently experiencing a "pre-holiday effect," suggesting that large funds are likely to refrain from taking significant actions before the holiday [7][13] Group 3 - The upcoming significant press conference on September 22 is expected to draw attention, but the focus will be on summarizing past achievements rather than introducing new policies [10][11] - The previous year's meeting on September 24 led to the introduction of structural monetary policy tools, while this year's meeting is more about reviewing financial industry achievements [10][11] - The ideal window for potential investments aligns with the timeline of the "14th Five-Year Plan," suggesting that any market fluctuations are seen as preparatory for new highs [15]