Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The US Q3 2025 GDP growth rate is 4.3%, significantly above market expectations, with consumer resilience and AI investments contributing one-third of this year's growth [10] - Japan has passed a large-scale fiscal budget plan for 2026, leading to a rapid increase in Japanese bond yields to 2.11%, which has exerted some pressure on the US dollar index due to yen appreciation [10] - The domestic industrial profit decline has widened in November, with a slight month-on-month increase in profit margins after adjusting for high base effects, but still weaker than seasonal trends [10] Group 2: Market Strategy - The bond market experienced narrow fluctuations from December 22 to 26, with a steepening curve; liquidity easing has improved short-term performance, while long-term remains volatile due to concerns about the post-year-end market [11] - The A-share market has seen a continuous rebound due to the resolution of structural differentiation and positive signals from the Central Economic Work Conference, alongside a strengthening yuan [11] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of benefiting from liquidity while facing weak fundamentals, with the improvement of the price level in 2026 being crucial [11] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The alcohol beverage and black metallurgy industries are dragging down overall profit growth, while the recovery in export growth is benefiting sectors like computer communications, automotive, electrical machinery, and specialized equipment [10] - The technology growth sector is expected to outperform as the crowding effect eases, although further recovery in PPI and profits is still awaited [11] - The oil market is under pressure due to weak demand, continuous supply release, and inventory accumulation [12]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 国金证券研究 作者：牟一凌、吴晓明、吴慧敏 摘要 ■ 投资逻辑 跨年行情缓步开启，市场不在聚焦单一叙事 近期A股市场连续上涨，市场期待的跨年行情逐渐启动。在国内外基本面尚未出现重大变化之际，当下 反弹更像是前期分母端流动性紧缩预期边际缓和后的全球风险资产共振修复，海外主要股指均实现不同 程度的上涨。值得一提的是市场逐渐不再聚焦于AI中外映射行情的单一叙事，而是向更广泛的领域扩 散，呈现出AI、内需、涨价链、新的产业主题（商业航天）轮涨的格局。单一叙事驱动下的市场上涨 具备不稳定与高波动性，真正的牛市往往是广泛市场机会涌现与形成合力，在当前市场缓步向上，行业 轮动加速之际，2026年新的投资主线也正在慢慢浮出水面。 如何理解近期各产业链涨价：实物消耗的扩散与汇聚 当下涨价链成为市场焦点，通过梳理各行业涨价函具体内容与业内分析可以看到，原材料价格的上涨成 为价格主要推升因素；与此同时，反内卷政策的效果也正在显现，在面临上游涨价，下游压价的困境 时，部分企业开始选择自发减产与联合提价的方式维护产业合理竞争秩序。往后看由于需求端的景气程 度差异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across various manufacturing sectors [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, particularly in industrial resource products such as copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the bottom of the cycle, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] - Identify domestic manufacturing sectors that are showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Capture the recovery in consumption driven by inbound tourism and rising household income, focusing on sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns, particularly in non-bank financial sectors such as insurance and brokerage [1]

本报记者 昌校宇 中欧基金权益专户投委会主席、基金经理王培预计，2026年或迎来估值演绎的下半场，企业盈利有望成 为股价的核心驱动因素。王培分析称："当前市场正处于基本面拐点，上市公司营收端的修复动能持续 增强，叠加PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）回正预期增强，企业在2026年实现盈利增长值得期待。" 方正富邦基金首席投资官汤戈认为，2026年A股上市公司盈利增速和ROE（净资产收益率）水平有望继 续修复，业绩的增长将消化部分估值压力，使市场上涨的基础更为扎实。 科技投资成共识 科技仍然是各家公募机构关注度最高的投资主线，特别是在"AI投资逻辑将从基础设施建设向实际应用 场景深度扩散"上形成了共识。 近日，国泰基金、中欧基金、长城基金、方正富邦基金等公募机构相继召开2026年度投资策略会，分析 市场走势。 尽管各家公募机构视角各异、表述不同，却也存在共识：2026年A股市场有望从估值修复主导，逐步转 向盈利与估值双重驱动的新阶段；科技仍是贯穿中长期的核心主线，同时消费复苏、企业"出海"等多条 脉络也将交织出丰富的结构性机遇，共同描绘出一幅积极向好的投资图景。 业绩有望增长 回顾2025年，估值扩张是A股市场上 ...

Our major market indexes have flattened on low seasonal volume of late, and are slipping in early trading in the third-final trading day of 2025. The Dow is currently -52 points, the S&P 500 is -20, the Nasdaq -123 and the small-cap Russell 2000 is -5 points currently. Year-to-date, we’re up anywhere from +13% in the Russell 2000 to +21% in the Nasdaq. This looks to be the third-straight year the Nasdaq is trading at +20% or higher. Not too shabby.Home Price Reports This WeekAfter today’s open, we’ll get th ...

冠通期货-宏观2026年报 --美国中期选举，中国十五五开局 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 回顾2025年，全球经济在动荡中前行，海外特朗普上任，关税贸易大棒震惊全球，美联储重启降息催生出流动性牛市；国内，信心的重塑驱动 中国资产之重估，反内卷点燃新一轮供给侧改革，共同构成了影响全球经济走向的两大主线。当下，国际上特朗普交易的余威犹存，但其边际影响 逐步减弱，市场关注点逐步转向美国财政的可持续性与中期选举后政策路径的再校准。国内的宏观政策持续发力，以中央加杠杆为核心，托底经济、 化解风险，并在"十五五"开局之年，将绿色转型与产业升级作为推动高质量发展的核心抓手。 展望2026年，全球政治周期与科技周期的共振料将支撑风险资产，能源转型与AI投资两大浪潮则将重塑大宗商品格局。 美国视角，中期选举成 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in the afternoon, with mixed performance across the three major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased, achieving a nine-day winning streak, while the ChiNext Index saw a decline of over 1% at one point. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.14 trillion, a decrease of 20.9 billion from the previous trading day. Overall, more stocks declined than rose, with over 3,300 stocks falling [2]. Sector Performance - The humanoid robot sector saw significant gains, with companies like Boke Technology hitting the daily limit of a 20% increase, marking a historical high. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently held a meeting to establish standards for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, which is expected to drive further growth in this sector [4]. - The digital currency sector also performed well, with Lakala rising nearly 12% and other companies like Cuiwei Co. and Sifang Jingchuang seeing gains. This follows the People's Bank of China revising rules for the cross-border payment system to support the development of cross-border RMB business [5]. Real Estate Policy Impact - Following adjustments to real estate policies in Beijing, the average daily transaction volume of new residential properties increased by 44.6% compared to the period before the policy change. The new policy is expected to have a ripple effect on other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, although market differentiation remains evident, particularly in non-core areas [6][7]. Healthcare Sector - The basic medical insurance fund's total income for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 2.632 trillion, with total expenditures of 2.110 trillion. The fund's operation remains stable, with contributions from both employee and resident insurance systems [8]. Investment Insights - Guojin Securities highlighted that a new investment theme is emerging in the commodity market, with a focus on industrial resources like copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, and crude oil. The report suggests that the recovery of global manufacturing and the rebound in domestic consumption will create opportunities in sectors such as aviation, hotels, and non-bank financial services [9][10].

相关ETF中，截至上周五（12月26日）收盘，港股科技ETF天弘（159128）成交额近2800万元，恒生科 技ETF天弘（520920）成交额超2300万元。 港股12月24日下午至12月26日休市，12月29日（周一）起将正常开市。在港股休市期间，上证指数持续 走高收获八连阳，多个科技相关板块表现强势。 光大证券表示，2026年，港股市场将在估值修复、盈利增长、主线回归三重驱动下，迎来 "戴维斯双 击"。恒生指数有望重拾升势，恒生科技指数的向上弹性有望超越大盘。科技板块作为汇聚中国新经济 核心资产的领域，有望成为驱动市场反弹的最强主线 。 华泰证券表示，AI投资正成为驱动全球经济增长的核心引擎。我们认为，当前AI投资尚处初级阶段， 算力供给偏紧与"军备竞赛"持续支撑行业投资需求，技术渗透率、资本集中度、产能现状及企业资产负 债表等多维度亦可佐证这一判断。 12月29日，恒生指数开盘涨0.43%，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，国证港股通科技指数张0.67%。优必选涨 超7%，小鹏汽车-W、零跑汽车、比亚迪股份等多个科技股领涨。 港股科技ETF天弘（159128）紧密跟踪港股通科技指数，成分股均属于沪深港通标的， ...

内外兼修——2026 年宏观经济与资本市场展望 20251228 摘要 2026 年全球制造业上行趋势及美联储降息将支撑中国出口，AI 投资成 为资本开支亮点，共同推动出口需求攀升，但需关注美国库存周期变化。 中国应对美国关税经验丰富，关税对出口影响减弱，当前产能出海策略 聚焦"一带一路"，补充品牌海外渗透率，带动国内资本品和中间品出 口，对国内经济具积极意义。 房地产市场深度调整，投资降幅收窄，但房价下跌和居民资产负债表恶 化可能抑制消费，需警惕房地产市场走势及其潜在风险。 耐用品补贴政策对消费拉动效果减弱，提高居民收入、释放教育、文娱、 育幼、医疗和养老等服务类消费潜力是扩大内需的关键。 广义财政收支面临困境，地方政府债务风险增加，需通过中央政府举债 加杠杆对冲下行压力，避免经济硬着陆，并进行财税改革和财富再分配。 2026 年中国财政策略应保持保量提质态势，中央主导稳增长，地方聚 焦化解债务，广义财政支出增速预计小幅退坡至 4%-5%。 2035 年前 GDP 平均增速需保持在 4.17%左右，2026 年短期经济增长 目标可能小幅调整，出口和服务消费有望成为经济增长的重要支柱，优 先配置权益类资产和与 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a cross-year rally, driven by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and materials [9][10][11] - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [1] - The market consensus is shifting towards sectors representing competition in next-generation infrastructure between China and the US, with a focus on manufacturing and pricing power in the global market [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, with a preference for sectors with low concentration but rising attention and long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The outlook for the RMB is positive, with expectations of appreciation driven by improved domestic conditions and external factors, which could lead to significant capital inflows and asset revaluation [4][5] - The spring market is expected to benefit from favorable conditions, including liquidity support and upcoming policy events, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [3][10][12] Group 3 - The investment focus is on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as those with high import material dependency and those that can leverage increased domestic purchasing power [5] - The market is characterized by a structural rotation, with a focus on technology themes and sectors like commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and robotics [12][14] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by strong institutional buying and favorable policy expectations [11][13][14]