Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that investors should not fall into the "deposit migration" self-referential loop and should seek areas with the greatest marginal improvement in fundamentals for early positioning [1][5] - Following the Jackson Hole meeting, the outlook for manufacturing recovery has become clearer, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus from cash flow-driven AI investments to credit-driven traditional manufacturing investments [1][5] Group 2 - Since the tariff conflict in April, global stock markets have shown significant increases, with A-shares outperforming other major indices due to improved manufacturing sentiment and a rising demand sensitivity from Chinese enterprises [2] - The strong performance of A-shares is attributed to the independent market dynamics, as they are less reliant on a single external market and benefit from various domestic industrial policies [2] Group 3 - The current market state shows accelerated industry rotation and a trend of "high cutting low" among individual stocks, with TMT and military sectors leading in gains, while overall valuations have reached historical highs [3] - The internal valuation differences among stocks in the growth sector are narrowing, indicating a potential focus on eliminating undervalued stocks, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry and the ChiNext index [3] Group 4 - The next phase of market drivers will be the realization of profit improvement expectations, as many weighty assets remain undervalued due to low economic sentiment [4] - The easing of financial conditions historically strengthens manufacturing over services, leading to increased physical consumption per unit of GDP and a favorable environment for physical asset demand [4] Group 5 - The report suggests that with the recovery of overseas manufacturing, physical assets such as industrial metals and capital goods will benefit, highlighting opportunities in the investment and consumption sectors due to industry chain restructuring [5] - The insurance sector's long-term asset side is expected to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms [5] Group 6 - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to a convergence of A and H shares, with corporate profit changes becoming the driving force behind performance differences in the two markets [6]

Core Insights - Databricks has completed a Series K funding round, achieving a valuation exceeding $100 billion, making it the fourth highest-valued private company globally, following SpaceX, OpenAI, and ByteDance [1] - The company experienced a 61% increase in valuation within a year after raising $10 billion last year, indicating strong market demand for AI infrastructure firms [1][2] - Databricks serves over 15,000 customers, including more than 60% of Fortune 500 companies, and reported an annual revenue of $3.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 50% [2] Capital Logic - The capital interest in Databricks is driven by its technological scarcity, viable business model, and ecosystem control [2] - The company’s Lakehouse architecture effectively integrates data lakes and warehouses, addressing core pain points in enterprise digital transformation [2] - Investors are eager to secure leading AI assets in the private market to avoid high premiums and volatility in the public market [2] Strategic Considerations - Databricks is delaying its IPO to avoid short-term pressures from the public market and to focus on long-term technological investments [3] - The company has made over $3.4 billion in acquisitions in the past year to enhance its AI capabilities, necessitating time for integration [3] - The competitive landscape remains uncertain, with major cloud providers like AWS and Google Cloud intensifying their AI-native data services [3] Future Challenges - Databricks faces the challenge of maintaining a 50% growth rate while improving net retention and gross margins without relying solely on capital-driven growth [4] - The company must balance its open-source roots with commercial product development to ensure a healthy ecosystem [5] - Geopolitical risks, such as varying global data sovereignty regulations, may impact its global expansion efficiency [5] Industry Implications - The rise of Databricks signifies a shift in AI investment logic from model-level to infrastructure-level [6] - The sustainable value of AI is increasingly recognized as stemming from comprehensive platform capabilities that support data flow, training, deployment, and application development [6] - The emergence of billion-dollar unicorns in the AI infrastructure space indicates a growing trend, with investors needing to be cautious of valuation bubbles while exploring differentiated opportunities in the second tier of AI infrastructure companies [6]

Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares have shown strong performance since August, driven by improved global manufacturing sentiment and rising domestic demand[3] - The overall valuation of the TMT and military sectors has reached historical highs, indicating limited room for further expansion[4] - The shift from small-cap growth represented by the National Index 2000 to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext Index is evident, reflecting accelerated industry rotation[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector's profitability is expected to improve, with the lower limit of net profit margins confirmed by February 2025[4] - As of July, the electricity consumption in the secondary industry has shown a continuous recovery for five months, indicating a positive trend in production activity[4] - The average ROE for non-financial companies in the A-share market is projected to improve in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, suggesting a broadening of profit recovery across sectors[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery, such as industrial metals and capital goods, as they are expected to see increased demand[5] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms[5] - Opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors are emerging, particularly in food and beverage and electric equipment, as large-cap stocks begin to outperform[5] Group 4: Risks - There is a risk that domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, which could impact market performance[6] - A significant downturn in the global economy could also pose risks to the A-share market[6]

2025 年 08 月 22 日 国联量化团队：传统量化与 AI 投资 并行，力争实现可持续的超额收益 ——基金经理研究系列报告之七十八 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 股 票 基 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 奚佳诚 A0230523070004 xijc@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 奚佳诚 (8621)23297818× xijc@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 权 益 量 化 研 究 金 相关研究 - ⚫ 国联基金多策略投资部（国联量化团队）是公司量化投资业务的核心团队，覆盖指数及 ETF、 指数增强、主动量化（对冲与 Smart Beta）、FOF、固收+等多个条线。国联量化团队的核 心目标是在市场有效性增强与传统公开因子边际收益递减的背景下实现可持续的超额收 益。为此，团队打造了依托"高频指增+深度学习"的非线性框架"，以期持续获取稳定的 Alpha，并在定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3700 points and daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, leading to heightened investor enthusiasm and demand for investment opportunities [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Demand - The surge in A-share market activity has resulted in explosive growth in individual investor demand, making traditional investment methods reliant on manual analysis and experience inadequate for the rapidly changing market environment [5]. - The maturity of technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data provides new tools and methods for investment decision-making, with smart investment advisory becoming a preferred choice for the new generation of investors [5][9]. Group 2: AI Investment Tools and Offerings - Jiufang Zhituo is leveraging this trend by showcasing its technological capabilities during the "818 AI Investment Festival," using its AI stock machine to provide intelligent investment value analysis and asset allocation solutions [5][11]. - The "818 AI Investment Festival" features significant discounts on Jiufang's core products, the "Navigator Edition" and "Launch Edition" of the AI stock machine, with price reductions and additional benefits to enhance user experience [6][11]. Group 3: AI Technology Integration - The Jiufang AI stock machine is not merely a market display tool but an intelligent investment assistant that integrates years of research and development, utilizing big data analysis, machine learning models, and natural language processing to provide comprehensive investment support [10]. - The machine's functionalities include intelligent stock selection, trend analysis, risk warning, and asset allocation advice, aimed at transforming complex information into clear, actionable decision-making signals for investors [10]. Group 4: Educational and Service Upgrade Initiatives - The "818 AI Investment Festival" serves a dual purpose of promoting service upgrades and investor education, showcasing the application of AI technology in investment advisory and reflecting the company's commitment to intelligent service enhancement [11]. - This initiative also aims to educate investors on rational, value-based, and intelligent investment practices, aligning with the long-term goal of a mature capital market and optimized investor structure in China [11].

【解剖大盘】 港股连续调整了多日，今天在A股的带动下终于出现反弹，收盘恒指涨0.17%。 美商务部周二正式宣布，将风力涡轮机等407类钢铁和铝衍生产品纳入关税清单。特朗普钢铝关税范围 陡然扩大，美国进口商措手不及。这很显然对美国经济形成反噬，美股又陷入被动，惯用的伎俩就是打 中国牌。据报道，美国财政部长贝森特当地时间19日在接受采访时称："我们与中方进行了非常良好的 对话，我预计在11月前我们会再次会面。我认为当前工作开展得很顺利。" 再看老铺黄金(06181)业绩也超预期，股东应占利润22.68亿元，同比增加285%。今年上半年，老铺黄金 在单个商场平均销售业绩4.59亿元，已领先国际奢侈品一线巨头。据弗若斯特沙利文调研数据，老铺黄 金消费者与路易威登、爱马仕、卡地亚、宝格丽等国际五大奢侈品牌的消费者平均重合率接近八成，这 意味着国际奢侈品牌消费者越来越多转向老铺黄金，而中国品牌也首次成为高端消费的主流力量。如果 能达到国际奢侈品牌的认知度，那么海外这块增量就会较大，只是品牌的建立还需要时间和底蕴，今天 涨近9%。另外蜜雪集团(02097)、名创优品(09896)均涨幅超4%。 昨日板块聚焦提到的果链类持续 ...

在金融业书写"五篇大文章"的浪潮中，数字金融正以技术底座与创新引擎的双重身份，重塑保险业核心竞争力。当行业还在探讨"AI能否赋能投资"时，新华 保险旗下子公司新华资产已交出一份硬核答卷——新华资产积极服务国家战略，紧紧把握数字技术革命和数字经济发展的机遇，其AI驱动的智能投资产品 以近一年高达73.82%的收益率，在全市场保险资管产品及公募基金中强势领跑，业务规模持续攀升，成为数字金融赋能实体的鲜活范本之一。 前瞻布局：从认知破局到技术共鸣 "投资本身就是一种特殊的模型训练过程。"这一底层认知的突破，成为AI深度参与投资的基石。 与人类分析师"信息收集-体系构建-预测应对"投研工作流程相比，AI独有的"数据输入-模型训练-结果输出"工作流程，可高效整合新闻、财报、研报等多源 异构数据，从海量数据中精准识别市场模式、挖掘指标关联，进而发现投资规律，将人类分析师需要1周的工作时长缩短至1晚完成。 2023年，当大模型技术尚处萌芽，新华资产即洞察到AI赋能投资的重要机遇，率先在行业启动"AI+投资"战略，开始了全新投资模式的探索应用。 实践突破：创新生态支撑，业绩验证价值 从"0"到"1"的跨越，离不开全链条支撑体 ...

Market Overview - The Nasdaq index experienced a significant drop of 1.4%, marking the second-largest decline since the trade tariff turmoil in April, erasing gains from the previous seven trading days [2] - Nvidia's stock plummeted by 3.5%, contributing to the overall market decline, highlighting the heavy reliance of the U.S. stock market on a few tech giants [2] Market Dynamics - Despite over 350 companies in the S&P 500 seeing stock price increases, the downturn of major tech stocks overshadowed these gains, indicating a potential vulnerability in the market structure [2] - The market is showing signs of risk aversion, with U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar strengthening as investors seek "insurance" against risk assets, similar to behaviors observed during the 2008 financial crisis [2] Investor Sentiment - Concerns are rising on Wall Street regarding the current market conditions, drawing parallels to the internet bubble of the 1990s, with discussions around inflated valuations reminiscent of that era [3] - The volatility of individual Nasdaq stocks has exceeded the index's volatility by 19 points over the past month, indicating a potential prelude to significant market movements [3] Future Outlook - The market's direction is heavily dependent on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming statements, with current market pricing reflecting an expectation of dovish monetary policy [3] - Any deviation from these expectations could lead to increased volatility, as the market is currently positioned for a potential rate cut [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Liangxin Co., Ltd. Company Overview - Liangxin Co., Ltd. specializes in distribution electrical appliances, accounting for over half of its revenue, and is actively expanding into terminal electrical appliances, control electrical appliances, and smart electrical products [2][3][4] - The company is focusing on the new energy and data center markets, initiating a new growth cycle, particularly driven by AI investments in data centers [2][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Positioning**: Liangxin Co., Ltd. positions itself in the high-end market of low-voltage electrical appliances, initially starting from the communication industry and expanding into real estate and new energy sectors [3][4] - **Data Center Potential**: The data center sector is identified as a significant growth area, with increasing demand for low-voltage electrical appliances, especially in the context of AI investments and the recovery of the domestic market post-pandemic [4][12] - **North American Market Entry**: The company has obtained UL certification in the U.S. and is set to become a circuit breaker supplier for the North American market, targeting a 10% market share in the Vidi market, which could generate 1 billion RMB in revenue with a 30% net profit margin [2][5][6] - **R&D Focus**: The management team, primarily with technical backgrounds, emphasizes R&D investment to ensure product competitiveness and adapt to market changes [7][21] - **Employee Stock Ownership Plan**: The company plans to recover approximately 70 million RMB in employee stock ownership plan expenses by 2025, which is expected to enhance overall performance [8][22] Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - **Impact of Real Estate Sector**: The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to challenges in the real estate sector, but strategic adjustments, including increased direct sales to major clients and investments in other markets, are anticipated to reverse performance trends [9][10] - **Profit Margin Pressures**: The overall gross margin is facing pressure, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, as the share of new energy business increases [9][10] Market Dynamics - **Low-Voltage Electrical Market Recovery**: The low-voltage electrical market is experiencing a strong recovery post-pandemic, with new demand concentrated in new energy and smart distribution sectors [10][16] - **Global Market Leadership**: The global low-voltage electrical market is dominated by international brands, with Liangxin Co., Ltd. ranking fifth domestically and holding the largest market share in DC products [11][14] Future Growth Projections - **Revenue Growth Expectations**: By 2027, the global low-voltage electrical market is projected to reach approximately 12-13 billion USD, with significant growth in low-voltage DC products. The company expects to benefit from increased penetration of DC products [22][23] - **Market Valuation Goals**: The current market valuation of the company is around 12 billion RMB, with a target valuation of 18-20 billion RMB by considering contributions from overseas markets and core business growth [23] Additional Insights - **Technological Innovation**: The company is committed to technological innovation, with a strong patent portfolio and collaborations with leading solution providers like Huawei and ZTE [21] - **Strategic Business Units**: Liangxin Co., Ltd. operates across four business units: new energy, smart buildings, infrastructure, and digital energy, focusing on high cost-performance and domestic substitution [18][19][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 597 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 14 million yuan, a reduction in loss by 12 million yuan [8] - The second quarter performance met expectations, with revenue of 378 million yuan, up 8.76% year-on-year, and a net profit of 18 million yuan, up 54.07% year-on-year [8] - The company has seen progress across multiple sectors, including PCB, semiconductor, and controllers, despite challenges in the photovoltaic sector [8] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 1.817 billion yuan, 2.070 billion yuan, and 2.286 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 178 million yuan, 234 million yuan, and 258 million yuan [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,648 million yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7%, while 2024 is expected to see a slight decline of 2.4% [7] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 215 million yuan, with a significant growth rate of 41.5% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.92 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 55.8 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 8.9% in 2025, increasing to 12.2% by 2027 [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance of -8% over the last 12 months, compared to a 14% increase in the CSI 300 index [4]