Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Waller as the new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump is expected to have limited impact on the Fed's monetary easing path, with the likelihood of maintaining interest rates steady in the first half of the year and potential rate cuts in the second half [1][8]. Group 1: Nomination and Background - Trump's nomination of Waller reflects a cautious dovish stance, with a high probability of keeping rates unchanged in the first half of the year and possibly cutting rates twice in the second half [1]. - Waller has a diverse background across politics, business, and academia, which may enhance market confidence in his leadership [4]. - The nomination process faced delays, with multiple candidates being considered before Waller was ultimately selected [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Proposals - Waller advocates for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, aligning with Trump's policy preferences [4][5]. - He believes inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon and criticizes the Fed's excessive balance sheet expansion, suggesting a return to conventional monetary policy tools [5][6]. - Waller's approach to interest rate cuts is expected to be gradual, as he acknowledges the need to balance inflation concerns with economic growth [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Trends - Following Waller's nomination, there was volatility in U.S. equities and bonds, with the dollar strengthening and gold prices declining [8]. - The market anticipates that major assets will revert to economic fundamentals, with U.S. stocks likely to continue rising and bond yields having limited downward space [9]. - The dollar index is expected to remain weak overall, while gold may experience upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainties [10].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.83%报 4970.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.27%报 84.92 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 4.2%报 1108.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 5.93%报 | | | | | 22393 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 3 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 3.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1083.38 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 108.89 吨，当前持仓量为 16437.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend strategy for 2026 is expected to shift towards a focus on fundamental resilience, moving away from historical dividend ratios and static yields towards companies with potential for earnings improvement and increasing future dividends [6][15]. Group 1: Dividend Configuration Direction - Three key clues suggest the dividend allocation direction for 2026: overseas AI investments and manufacturing recovery leading to a power demand gap; resource protectionism in emerging markets coinciding with a rate cut cycle; and a recovery in domestic demand and consumption power, indicating that resources and traditional manufacturing sectors may benefit [6][15]. - The high dividend strategy may focus on structural shifts, seeking companies with fundamental resilience or marginal improvement trends, where future dividend ratios may rise and forecasted yields meet expectations [6][15]. Group 2: Shipping and Port Sector Insights - Regulatory changes regarding shadow fleets may benefit compliant leaders in the oil transportation industry, as a significant gap in effective global oil transport capacity is anticipated due to increased regulatory scrutiny [15]. - The regulatory tightening may lead to a large-scale halt in operations by shadow shipowners, impacting global oil transport turnover, with freight rates expected to show a K-shaped differentiation, where compliant fleets enjoy a safety premium and increased bargaining power [15]. Group 3: Dividend Yield Rankings - The top five sectors by dividend yield include: white goods at 6.10%, commercial banks II at 5.80%, coal mining at 5.46%, rural commercial banks II at 4.90%, and shipping ports at 4.20% [16][17].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 4000 points, with significant capital inflow into dividend-focused investments, particularly the Guotai Dividend ETF (510720), which saw a net inflow of over 230 million yuan in the previous trading day [1] - Guotai Securities forecasts that by 2026, the resource and traditional manufacturing sectors will benefit the most from dividends, driven by factors such as overseas AI investments, manufacturing recovery, resource protectionism in emerging markets, and a cycle of interest rate cuts [1] - The Guotai Dividend ETF tracks the Shangguo Dividend Index (000151), which selects high-dividend capable and stable dividend-paying companies across sectors like banking, coal, and transportation, focusing on traditional high-dividend areas [1] Group 2 - The index employs a rigorous assessment of constituent stocks' dividend yields and sustainability, utilizing a cross-industry diversification strategy to effectively manage investment risks and reflect the overall market performance of high-dividend companies [1] - The Guotai Dividend ETF has consistently paid dividends for 21 consecutive months since its listing, with monthly evaluations of dividend distributions [1]

| 亚太市场 | | 更新于:02-03 13:12 | | --- | --- | --- | | 日经225 | 韩国综合 | 新加坡海峡 | | 54769.57 | 5239.17 | 4932.03 | | +2114.39 +4.02% +289.50 +5.85% | | +39.76 +0.81% | | 澳洲标普200 | 印度 | MSCI台湾 | | 8857.10 | 83948.71 | 1278.12 | | -9.20 -0.10% +2282.25 +2.79% | | +23.98 +1.91% | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 恒生指数 | | 4031.43 | 13948.39 | 26830.50 | | +15.68 +0.39% +124.04 +0.90% | | +54.93 +0.21% 同詞學 | 港A股则高开低走。盘中，A股震荡翻红，但港股仍低迷。 全球市场恐慌性抛售后，突然迎来全面反弹。 周二，此前惨遭"大屠杀"的金银急速回血，日韩股市引领亚太市场冲锋。 MSCI亚太指数一度上涨2.3%，创下去年6月以来的最大涨幅;印度股指、台湾加权指数纷纷上扬。 ...

2月3日，A股港股主要指数上涨，截止午盘，港股通红利ETF广发（520900）涨幅0.96%。资金流向方 面，近五日净申购7963万元。华泰证券指出，1月市场风险偏好中枢继续回落，高股息板块整体表现优 于去年12月，其中石油石化、煤炭、钢铁等周期型高股息表现较优。展望2月，华泰证券认为伴随着市 场波动率开始放大，海外美债长端利率及美元指数回升，高股息板块配置价值较上月边际回升，配置上 建议关注具备防御属性的稳定型高股息及部分潜力型高股息品种。国金证券指出，2026年红利策略的配 置思路应重在结构切换：从注重历史分红比例和静态股息率，向寻求有一定基本面弹性或边际改善趋 势、未来分红比例可能抬升的方向转换。基于对基本面三大核心线索的展望，资源和传统制造业红利的 受益范围最广：资源类红利将同时受益于海外AI投资与制造业复苏带来的缺电，以及新兴市场的资源 保护主义与降息周期共振；传统制造业红利受益面最广，除了服务性消费以外的逻辑都受益。港股通红 利ETF广发（520900）及其场外联接（022719/022720）为投资者提供了一键布局港股红利资产的便捷 入口，让稳健收益与长期价值兼得。 ...

备受关注的金融监督院公共机构指定事宜被暂缓。政府表示，此举旨在更注重实质性地提升其运营 透明性与公共性，而非形式上的指定。同时，金融监督院须在今年内落实加强主管部门监督、强化经营 信息公开、改革金融监督流程等一系列革新措施。其公共机构指定问题将于明年根据改革成效再议。 据韩国《纽西斯》1月29日报道， 韩国企划财政部29日审议通过"2026年度公共机构指定案"。今年 公共机构总数确定为342家，较去年增加11家。新增机构包括韩国关税信息院、加德岛新机场建设公社 等11家单位。 （原标题：韩国新增指定11家公共机构 总数达342家金融监督院暂缓指定） 此外，政府首次公开了符合条件但未被指定机构的名单及原因，以提升指定透明度。副总理秋庆镐 强调，公共机构应推进功能改革、加大AI投资，并为青年提供优质工作岗位。 ...

亚马逊将于美东时间2月5日盘后公布2025年第四季度财报。财经分析师Nova Capital称，在财报发布前 夕，考虑到未来几年应出现的业务增长水平，亚马逊看起来相当便宜。亚马逊未来12个月内有超过28% 的上涨潜力，且该分析师预期亚马逊第四季度业绩将非常强劲。 云计算业务方面，亚马逊AWS在2026年1月对EC2机器学习容量块实施约15%的价格上调，以应对当前 海外推理和训练算力的旺盛需求。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 近期亚马逊在多领域动作频频。此前有消息显示，亚马逊正洽谈向OpenAI投资至多500亿美元，参与 OpenAI新一轮至多1000亿美元的融资，双方同时商议扩大算力出售及模型使用相关合作。 当地时间1月28日，亚马逊开启新一轮裁员，涉及16000个职位。亚马逊为美国地区大部分员工提供90天 内部职位寻找机会，为无法转岗或不选择转岗的员工提供遣散费、职业介绍服务及医疗保险福利等过渡 支持。 ...

黄金、白银和全球股市周一延续暴跌，1月表现最强劲的资产遭遇密集抛售，周五市场剧烈逆转后的恐慌情绪持续蔓延。这场涵盖贵金属、科技股 和加密货币的全面抛售，正在考验投资者对此前持续上涨行情的信心。 市场波动的直接导火索是贵金属的剧烈波动和科技股估值担忧。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，该公司对OpenAI提议的1000亿美元投资"从未是 承诺"，这一表态加剧了市场对AI投资热潮可持续性的质疑。与此同时，特朗普上周五提名沃什为下任美联储主席，引发投资者重新评估货币政 策预期。 黄金周一现货黄金跌破4550美元/盎司，为1月16日以来首次，较日高回落超330美元。现货白银失守74美元/盎司，日内跌幅13.01%。亚洲股市录 得自4月初以来最严重的两日跌幅，欧股和美股期货显示进一步下跌。 AT Global Markets首席市场分析师Nick Twidale表示："金属市场的巨大波动是真正的催化剂。当我们看到这种历史性波动时，投资者信心不仅对 黄金，而且对整个市场都大幅下降。" 科技股估值担忧引发抛售潮 科技股在AI投资前景不确定性加剧的背景下遭遇重创。MSCI亚洲科技指数创下自11月以来最大跌幅，韩国Kospi指数作为 ...

如何看待有色金属的高波动？ 本轮有色金属的行情背后是：美元信用松动+流动性宽松预期+新增产业需求叙事，金融资本由于此前对实物资产欠配， 所以在上述三个催化下快速涌入。我们是实物资产投资逻辑在国内市场最早的构建者，但在近期市场过于流行的一致 预期也让我们担心一切看起来"太过容易"。本周四、周五有色金属商品和股票调整的原因则在于上述"美元信用松 动+流动性宽松预期"的叙事因为美联储主席提名人选的确定出现了逆转，再加上有色金属价格达到历史新高后的获 利了结。特朗普对沃什的提名尽管不直接意味着流动性的收紧，但至少让市场看到了一个"重塑美元信用"的蓝图， 这对于前期的拥挤交易产生了冲击：第一，美联储"缩表"回收市场多余流动性，压低通胀；第二，在通胀得到控制 的前提下，跟随自然利率的下降而降息，支持高效率的企业生产培育经济增长的内生动能，这是美元信用可持续的核 心支撑。而为了平滑上述两个环节带来的市场波动——美联储作为本土最大买家逐步减持美债将带来债券收益率大 幅上行，美国政府需要想方设法重塑美债买盘， "石油美元"循环在此时的重要性提升：历史上，原油每上升 1 美 元，将带来沙特、阿联酋、科威特这三个海合组织国家持有美 ...