Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including economic data from China, the United States, and the Eurozone [2][3][4] Key Points by Date September 22 - China's central bank will announce the September 2025 LPR at 09:00, with the 1 - year LPR expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR expected to be 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values, having a neutral impact on futures [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry at 15:00, with capital market development likely to be a core topic [4] - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be - 15.4, up from - 15.5 [5] September 23 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, expected to be 51, up from 50.7, which may help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [8] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the US September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, expected to be 53.5, up from 53, which may also help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [9] September 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the mid - September market prices of important production materials at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [10] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August new home sales at 22:00, with the seasonally - adjusted annualized total expected to be 653,000, up from 652,000, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 19 at 22:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures prices rise [12] - The US Conference Board will announce the September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be 102.9, down from 103.3, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [13] September 25 - The central bank will conduct an incremental roll - over of the maturing MLF, with 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing on this day [14] - The Gfk Institute will announce Germany's October consumer confidence index at 14:00, expected to be - 23.3, up from - 23.6 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the Q2 2025 GDP at 20:30, with the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP expected to be 3.3% [16] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of August durable goods orders at 20:30, expected to be - 0.5%, up from - 2.8%, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 at 20:30, expected to be 225,000, down from 231,000, which may help industrial product futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18] - The National Association of Realtors will announce the annualized total of August existing home sales at 22:00, expected to be 3.98 million, down from 4.01 million [19] September 26 - The US Department of Commerce will announce the August PCE price index at 20:30. If the annual and monthly rates of the PCE price index are slightly higher than the previous values and the core PCE price index shows specific changes, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December [20] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August personal consumption expenditures at 20:30, with the monthly rate expected to be 0.4%, down from 0.5%, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [21] September 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in August at 09:30, with the previous value (July) showing a 1.5% year - on - year decline and a 1.7% cumulative decline from January to July [22]

不过，LPR变动仍然受到多方面因素的影响和制约。董希淼表示，首先是银行息差方面的约束。如果 LPR下降过快，银行息差加快收窄，不利于保持银行体系稳健性和服务实体经济持续性。其次是存款利 率方面的约束。今年存款利率多次下调之后，大型商业银行存款挂牌利率创新低，未来降低存款利率的 空间已经不大。而且，当前新发放贷款利率在上年同期较低的水平上继续下降，已经处于历史低位。 董希淼预计，央行将坚持"以我为主"，兼顾内外平衡，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，降准降息都还有 较大可能和一定空间，但降准会优于降息。如果政策利率和存款利率继续降低，金融机构资金成本持续 下行，LPR仍有下降的可能。未来一段时间，LPR的变动需兼顾短期与长期、内部与外部等因素，努力 在稳增长、稳息差、稳外贸等多重目标之间保持动态平衡。 展望未来，业内专家认为，随着美联储开启新一轮降息，我国货币政策操作空间进一步拓宽。招联首席 研究员董希淼表示，近期美联储开启2024年12月以来的首次降息，为全球市场提供更宽松的流动性环 境。而且，美联储年底前还可能继续降息。在这种趋势下，中美利差压力和人民币汇率压力将有所减 轻，外部约束减弱，将为中国货币政策带来更为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic growth amid a backdrop of stable M2 and social financing growth rates. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has continuously lowered the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, resulting in a supportive monetary policy environment [1] - M2 and social financing growth rates have maintained a year-on-year increase of 8%-9%, indicating a broad monetary stance [1] - By the end of 2024, the ratios of social financing to GDP, M2 to GDP, and loans to GDP are projected to be 303%, 232%, and 190%, respectively, reflecting significant increases from 2017 [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Lending - In May, the People's Bank of China introduced a comprehensive policy package that included further cuts to reserve requirements and interest rates [1] - As of August, the growth rates for social financing and M2 were both at 8.8%, notably higher than the nominal GDP growth rate during the same period [1] - Since 2020, the central bank has reduced policy rates nine times, leading to a decline in the 1-year and 5-year LPR by 115 and 130 basis points, respectively [1] Group 3: Loan Rates - In August, the weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points from the previous year [1] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, which is 25 basis points lower than the same period last year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 5% and the STAR 50 up over 10%. The four stock index futures also increased collectively, and the performance of large and small-cap stocks was relatively balanced. The market trading activity continued to rise compared to last week, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remaining at the two-trillion level, and the trading amount of northbound funds exceeding one trillion for five consecutive weeks [5][97]. - Domestically, in terms of economic fundamentals, the growth rates of industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and social retail sales of above-scale industries in July all declined compared to the previous values, and the real estate market also showed an accelerated decline. Previously announced inflation data improved month-on-month under the combined effect of seasonal effects and industrial policies. In terms of financial data, the M2 - M1 gap continued to narrow in July, indicating that residents are gradually shifting from excess savings to consumption. At the individual stock level, the net profit growth rate of all A-shares has increased compared to the first quarter, and the profit performance of the four stock index futures has been differentiated. In terms of the capital side, northbound funds remained active in trading, and the margin trading balance continued to climb [97]. - Overall, this week was a macro data vacuum period in China, and the market focused on the disclosure of the semi-annual reports of listed companies. In the current low-interest rate environment, the movement of residents' deposits has injected liquidity into the market, and the previous policies for the entry of medium and long-term funds have also promoted the optimization of the A-share investment structure. In addition, due to the relatively high valuation of the US stock market, A-shares with more reasonable valuations have continuously attracted foreign capital inflows. Finally, due to the poor performance of previous economic data, the market still expects policy intensification. The strategy is to recommend light - position buying on dips [97]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2509 | 4.39 | 2.72 | 4394.0 | | | IH2509 | 3.36 | 2.80 | 2942.0 | | | IC2509 | 4.28 | 2.50 | 6810.4 | | | IM2509 | 3.70 | 2.25 | 7348.6 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 4.18 | 2.10 | 4378.00 | | | SSE 50 | 3.38 | 2.32 | 2928.61 | | | CSI 500 | 3.87 | 1.77 | 6822.85 | | | CSI 1000 | 3.45 | 1.51 | 7362.94 | [8] 3.2 News Overview - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real estate market, which is positive for the market [11]. - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, with a six - consecutive - day increase and a cumulative increase of over 110 billion yuan since August, which is positive for the market [11]. - On August 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged from the previous values, which is neutral for the market [11]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49% this week, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.57%, the STAR 50 rose 13.31%, the SME 100 rose 4.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.85% [14]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 1.23%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.86%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.72% [15]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: All industry sectors rose, with the communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors rising significantly. However, the main funds in the industry were generally in net outflows, with large net outflows in the computer, machinery, and power equipment sectors [19][23]. - **Other Data**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, with low capital prices. This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.523 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 92.504 billion yuan, and the total trading amount of northbound funds was 1.345191 trillion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened [27][30][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to continue to be affected by factors such as the disclosure of semi - annual reports, economic fundamentals, and policy expectations. The strategy is to recommend light - position buying on dips [97].

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the positive signals for the real estate market, emphasizing the goal of stabilizing the market and the potential for interest rate cuts to support this [1][2] - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, leading to speculation about its future adjustments, with experts suggesting that the current monetary policy is in a "comfortable zone" [1][2] - There is a notable decline in rental prices and an increase in the supply of rental properties, indicating a shift in market dynamics where tenants have more negotiating power [6][8] Group 2 - The Shenzhen housing policy has seen a surge in applications for rental housing due to lower entry barriers, allowing a wider range of applicants to qualify [4] - Compared to other cities, Shenzhen's approach to rental housing distribution is more inclusive, directly targeting individuals and families rather than primarily large enterprises [4] - The overall rental market is expected to enter a downward adjustment phase, with landlords facing increased pressure and a likelihood that tax burdens will not be passed on to tenants [11][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On August 21, the RB2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Under the background of weak demand in the off - season, downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand. The weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and inventory continues to increase due to the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather on demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebound at a low level. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,121.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; position volume is 1,458,111 lots, down 65,281 lots; the net position of the top 20 in RB contracts is - 102,201 lots, down 15,883 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 79 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 137,310 tons, up 9,965 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,330.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis is 209.00 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 140.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao Port is 771.00 yuan/wet ton, up 9.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) is 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,020.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore in 45 ports is 138.1927 million tons, up 1.07 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 39.05 million tons, down 53,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 609.78 million tons, down 95,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 112.52 million tons, down 28,400 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, up 0.17%. The output of rebar in sample steel mills is 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills is 47.05%, down 1.28%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 71.88%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output is 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China is 16.58 million tons, up 1.4 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is 1.60%, down 1.20%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is - 12.00%, down 0.80; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 3.20%, down 1.40. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 638.731 million square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 40.536 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2] Industry News - On August 21st, Mysteel reported that the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the inventory in steel mills was 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social inventory was 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons; the total inventory was 6.0704 million tons, up 198,500 tons; the apparent demand was 1.948 million tons, up 48,600 tons. This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2%, up 1.5%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.912 million tons, up 33,000 tons; the inventory of raw coal was 4.716 million tons, up 15,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 771,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the inventory of clean coal was 2.756 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The fundamentals of the mining end show an increase in overseas mine supply, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. On the supply side, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively firm operation of the spot, smelters are more enthusiastic about production, and domestic supply has increased. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened, and there is a slight improvement in consumption during the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Downstream inquiries have become more active, with some advance stocking demand emerging, and demand expectations are warming. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventories remaining at a medium - low level, and industry expectations are improving. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,692.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 506 lots, a decrease of 5,699 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,157 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 78,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 90.75 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.10 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,080 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,780 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons. The monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons. The cumulative value of completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative value of completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan, an increase of 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, an increase of 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 6.89%, a decrease of 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.52%, with no change. The implied volatility of at - the - money options is 9.2%, an increase of 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that many participants believed that the current interest rate was not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep the interest rate unchanged. China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The Fed's July meeting minutes also showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of maintaining political stability, social stability, ethnic unity, and religious harmony in Tibet and promoting major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of banks, including Jiangsu Bank and various village and city commercial banks, is to lower deposit interest rates in response to intense industry competition and declining loan rates, which is putting pressure on net interest margins [1][3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Jiangsu Bank has reduced its three-year fixed deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.75%, a decrease of 10 basis points [1][3]. - Several small and medium-sized banks have also announced adjustments to their deposit rates, with some rates dropping by 10 to 20 basis points [3]. - The current deposit rates for Shengjing Bank are 1.4% for six months, 1.5% for one year, and 1.95% for three years, indicating a potential for future reductions [3]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The banking industry's net interest margin is under significant pressure, with commercial banks reporting a net interest margin of 1.42% in Q2 2025, down 0.01 percentage points from Q1 [4]. - Large commercial banks and joint-stock banks have seen a decline in their net interest margins, while city and rural commercial banks have maintained their margins [4]. - The latest one-year and five-year LPR rates remain unchanged, but there is speculation about potential downward adjustments in the future to stimulate demand and stabilize the real estate market [4]. Group 3: Liability Management Strategies - Banks are focusing on liability management and stabilizing net interest margins, with examples like Changshu Bank actively optimizing their deposit structure and controlling high-cost long-term deposits [5]. - In May, the six major state-owned banks collectively announced reductions in RMB deposit rates, with one-year and two-year rates down by 15 basis points and three-year and five-year rates down by 25 basis points [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, reflecting a cautious approach amid calls for market stimulus, influenced by global capital flows and the Federal Reserve's policies [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Not Lowering Interest Rates - The current net interest margin for commercial banks has compressed to a historical low of 1.42%, indicating that banks earn only 1.42 yuan for every 100 yuan loaned, which poses systemic risks if LPR is lowered [3]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is a significant constraint, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, yet the Fed has maintained its rate at 4.25%-4.5%, leading to a 274 basis point inversion in the 10-year treasury yield between China and the U.S. [5][6]. - Economic fundamentals provide implicit support, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first half of the year and a weighted average loan interest rate dropping to a historical low of 3.2%, suggesting that further rate cuts may not be necessary [7]. Group 2: Impact of Global Capital Flows - The inverted interest rate differential of 274 basis points incentivizes foreign capital to withdraw from Chinese bonds, resulting in a net sell-off of 68 billion yuan in July, which increases financing costs for real estate companies [11]. - Currency fluctuations linked to LPR adjustments can indirectly raise mortgage costs for consumers, as a depreciation of the yuan can increase the hidden costs of purchasing property [13]. - The dynamics of LPR stability and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts illustrate the complex interplay of global interest rates, requiring the industry to navigate external pressures while stimulating domestic demand [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 21, 2025. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures like gold, silver, and others will also have specific trends including strong oscillation, wide - range oscillation, or weak oscillation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4300 and 4330 points and support levels at 4270 and 4244 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2509, TL2509) are likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation, with T2509 expected to test support levels at 109.95 and 107.91 yuan and resistance levels at 108.12 and 108.19 yuan [2]. - Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) futures are predicted to have a relatively strong oscillation. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 777.3 and 779.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 775.5 and 773.3 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper (CU2510) futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78400 and 78200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78800 and 79000 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina (AO2601), industrial silicon (SI2511), polycrystalline silicon (PS2511), and other futures have their own expected trends and support/resistance levels [3]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China has a series of policy - related news, such as the promotion of major projects in Tibet, the support for the biomedical industry, and the regulation of PPP projects [7][8]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with differences in views on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [9]. - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, higher than previous forecasts [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 20, 2025, major stock index futures contracts (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) showed a trend of opening slightly lower, then rising after a decline. For example, IF2509 closed at 4270.0 points, up 1.16% [13]. - The A - share market showed a strong rebound in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new ten - year high. The securities sector has performed well since August, and the scale of securities ETFs has increased significantly [15][16]. - For August 2025, different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF having a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 20, 2025, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2509, TL2509) opened slightly higher, then declined after a rebound. T2509 closed at 107.855 yuan, down 0.18% [34]. - The central bank conducted 6160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 20, with a net investment of 4975 billion yuan [35]. - The LPR remained stable in August, in line with market expectations [36]. Commodity Futures - Gold (AU2510) futures closed at 772.68 yuan/gram on August 20, 2025, down 0.35%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [42]. - Silver (AG2510) futures closed at 9042 yuan/kg on August 20, 2025, down 1.86%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [48]. - Other commodity futures such as copper, alumina, and industrial silicon also have their own trends on August 20 and expected trends for August and August 21 [51][56][59].