据报道，泰国已向美国提交了关税提案以供谈判。(第一财经) ...

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing a slight price increase, with improved market confidence and active trading due to low inventory levels among some traders [2] - Nickel ore prices remain relatively firm, with tight supply conditions influenced by the rainy season, while nickel iron prices are stable but under pressure [2][1] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease slightly month-on-month but increase year-on-year, indicating a mixed production outlook [1] Raw Materials - Philippine mines have sold resources for June at 1.4% FOB43, while Indonesian nickel ore prices have seen an increase in domestic trade premiums [1] - The Indonesian government has implemented a new tax policy, increasing the nickel product royalty by 1.5% [1] - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, with the latest mainstream steel mills quoting 940 yuan per nickel (including tax) [1] Supply and Production - According to Mysteel, 43 domestic stainless steel mills are expected to produce 3.4899 million tons of crude steel in May, a 0.4% decrease month-on-month but a 5.8% increase year-on-year [1] - The production of the 300 series is projected at 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] Inventory - Social inventory data remains stable, with a slight decrease in warehouse receipts recently [1] - As of May 9, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 560,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,700 tons [1] - Stainless steel futures inventory as of May 12 was 160,244 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,048 tons [1]

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The US will retain 10% of the 20% tariff on fentanyl and suspend 90% of the remaining 24% tariffs for 90 days, while canceling all tariffs imposed on April 8 and 9[1] - China will suspend the implementation of the 24% tariffs on US goods for the initial 90 days, retaining 10% on these products and canceling other subsequent tariffs[1] - The tariff reductions exceed previous investor expectations, potentially raising the volatility center of the domestic equity market[1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - A-shares opened higher and closed up, with significant gains in sectors like power equipment, machinery, and electronics, confirming the positive outlook[2] - The market's risk appetite is expected to increase further due to the positive signals from the US-China negotiations, with potential recovery in the export chain[2] - The current A-share risk premium is influenced by domestic credit cycles and the US dollar cycle, with a reasonable P/E ratio estimated at 21x compared to the current 19x[4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to technology and export sectors, while maintaining a cautious stance on industries with high US exposure[5] - Mid-term strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from internal certainty, such as public funds and industries with improved earnings forecasts[5] - The Hong Kong market is expected to show relative returns, with recommendations to increase allocations in technology and consumer sectors[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent trade negotiations have led to a return to an additional 10% tariff and a 24% delay, which is expected to significantly improve the trade environment and provide positive expectations for sectors affected by the previous tariff war [1] - The market's response to this news may experience a time lag, as sectors impacted by tariffs have already seen substantial gains recently, indicating that the immediate market reaction may not fully reflect the news [1] - The A50 and Hong Kong futures are expected to open higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 3 points and the A50 increasing by approximately 1.8 points, suggesting a bullish sentiment for the next trading day [1] Group 2 - The market is likely to experience a release of extreme emotions, which could lead to either a buying or selling climax, as indicated by historical reference points from October 8 and December 10, as well as a future reference from April 7, 2025 [2] - The index structure shows that the market has not broken below 3350, closing at 3369, indicating a potential upward extension in the next trading session [2] - The pressure points for the market are identified at specific levels, with the recent diagonal line indicating significant resistance around 3509, 3494, and 3439, which will be crucial for short-term trading strategies [3]

针对关税谈判，日本又有最新表态！ 当地时间周一，日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表 示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日 本消费税税率表示谨慎。截至发稿，美元兑日元上涨2%，至148.31，创4月初以来新高。 日本首相：将进行额外经济刺激 周一，日本首相石破茂在日本国会会议上表示，面对美国提高关税带来的经济压力，日本政府已准备好采取额 外措施，来缓解其对国内经济的影响。 石破茂说，日本政府"将毫不犹豫地采取额外措施"，以缓解美国提高关税给经济带来的痛苦。不过，在被一名 反对党议员问及政府是否会考虑降低食品消费税税率时，石破茂表示，"重要的是帮助受冲击最严重的民众， 而不是采取一刀切的措施。" 石破茂指出，虽然一些国家已经采取了侧重食品的减税措施，但日本的税率相对较低，同时面临快速老龄化社 会带来的财政挑战。他补充道："谈论减税很容易。但如果不在讨论中涉及如何支付日本不断上升的社会福利 和养老金成本这样的困难问题，那就是不负责任的。" 日本的公共债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

叠加矿端报价加速下调，锂价维持偏空运行【62000-63700】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 虽然英美谈判有结果、中美贸易谈判有结果，金价或有所调整，不过未来全球 | | | 高位震荡 | 购金力量仍较多，长期看国际秩序下美元信用丧失，去美元化是主力，黄金是 | | | | 未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【770-810】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 关税影响各国经济，国内光伏需求有负面影响各国刺激政策将会出台，白银窄 幅震荡。白银品种属性看弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，操作上延续此 | | | | 前的高位区间思路对待。【8100-8380】 | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜精矿紧张持续，国内库存持续去化，本周交割在即，仓单和持仓对比悬殊，警惕 | | | | 软挤仓风险，短期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77300，78800】 | | 锌 | 反弹抛空 | 海外锌精矿干扰增加，海内外库存去化，短期锌止跌反弹，但预计上方空间有 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial policies and market reactions, highlighting the impact of interest rate cuts and the ongoing trade negotiations between China and the US, which have led to fluctuations in various asset classes. Group 1: Market Overview - During the May Day holiday, overseas markets and Hong Kong stocks rose, leading to a rebound in A-shares on the first trading day after the holiday. However, uncertainties from US-China trade talks and other geopolitical events caused the market to enter a volatile phase after an initial recovery [1][2] - The small-cap growth style performed well this week, with notable performances in the defense, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market experienced a loose funding environment, with both government and credit bonds strengthening. The People's Bank of China announced a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut, but long-term bond yields were already priced in, leading to a flattening of the yield curve [2][6] - Short-term bonds are expected to perform better due to their higher certainty, while long-term bonds may have lower returns but still maintain a reasonable win rate [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - COMEX gold exhibited a V-shaped trend, initially rising above $3,400 per ounce before retreating due to the strengthening dollar and trade agreements between the UK and the US. Overall, gold prices saw a slight increase over the week [3][7] - The article emphasizes the ongoing trend of de-dollarization and the continued purchasing of gold by multiple central banks, suggesting that gold remains a valuable asset for long-term investment [7] Group 4: Overseas Market Developments - Recent developments in trade negotiations, including the initiation of talks between China and the US, and agreements between the US and the UK, indicate that the peak impact of the trade war may have passed, although future negotiations are expected to be complex [8] - The article notes the uncertainty surrounding US government policies and the potential for a shift away from dollar dependence, suggesting a need for diversified asset allocation in overseas investments [8] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - A-shares reported a rebound, with the broad-based indices such as the Guozheng 2000 and Zhongzheng 1000 showing significant weekly gains. The overall trading volume in the two markets increased by 22.16% compared to the previous week, reaching 13,225 billion yuan [10][12] - The article highlights that while the revenue and net profit growth rates for A-share companies turned positive in the first quarter, the proportion of loss-making companies remains high, indicating potential pressure on fundamentals due to tariff impacts [5][10] Group 6: Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the defense, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors showed strong weekly gains of +6.33%, +4.96%, and +4.02% respectively, indicating robust investor interest in these areas [19][22] - The article also mentions that the banking sector and non-bank financials have performed well, with respective weekly increases of 3.88% and 1.75% [21][22]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a one-month high of 145.9020, up 0.40%, driven by a trade agreement between the US and China, alleviating recession concerns in the US [1] - The USD/JPY has broken through the 140-145 range, with potential to test higher resistance levels around 146-147 if the trend continues [1] - Japan's trade balance for March was reported at 516.5 billion yen, below the expected 547.7 billion yen and significantly lower than the previous value of 712.9 billion yen [2] Group 2 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized a goal of 0% tariffs in negotiations with the US, indicating positive discussions with President Trump [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY has found support above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from March-April declines, with potential upward movement towards the 146.80-146.85 area, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci level [2] - The 145.55 area is currently acting as a protective level for the USD/JPY, with a break below this level potentially accelerating a decline towards the psychological level of 145.00 [3]