1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US May ADP employment growth fell short of expectations and the previous value; OECD cut the global growth forecast for the second time this year, slashing the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. After the China - US tariff relief, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience still needed to be observed [6]. - Domestic macro: Against the backdrop of the continued implementation of the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, the profits and PMI of manufacturing enterprises generally maintained strong resilience. The trade friction easing and policies supported the overall stability of manufacturing production and operation [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, even if Trump's tariffs are blocked, it cannot solve the fundamental deficit problem in the US. In China, the growth - stabilizing policy remains steadfast, and the second - quarter economic growth rate is supported by export resilience and the tariff - easing window period. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: US May ADP employment increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The number of job vacancies in April increased, and the consumer confidence index in May jumped from 85.7 to 98.0, but the labor market improvement was limited [6]. - Domestic: From January to April, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal implementation of established policies [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattened, the economic growth expectation improved, and the stagflation trading cooled down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Focus on local large - consumption hotspots, with market sentiment oscillating [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility declined continuously, and cautious covered call strategies were recommended, with the market oscillating [8]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the market oscillated [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the better - than - expected progress of China - US negotiations, precious metals continued to adjust in the short term, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention was paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Pessimistic demand expectations and a downward - moving cost support, with the market oscillating [8]. - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased, and the price oscillated [8]. - Coke: As the off - season deepened, there was still an expectation of price cuts, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Coking coal: Upstream inventory accumulation intensified, and the price remained weak, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and rising [8]. - Alumina: The event of mining license revocation was not yet finalized, and the alumina contract oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Aluminum: With the easing of trade tensions, the aluminum price oscillated strongly [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure persisted, and attention was paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances, with the market oscillating [11]. - LPG: Demand remained weak, and PG was in short - term bottom - finishing, with the market oscillating [11]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price was overestimated and awaited a decline [11]. - Methanol: Coal prices temporarily stabilized, and methanol oscillated [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils: There was an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, but rapeseed oil still performed weakly, with the market oscillating [11]. - Protein meal: The spot market sentiment cooled down, and the contract price followed the correction, with the market oscillating [11]. - Corn/Starch: The trading was dull, and the futures price oscillated [11]. - Pork: The supply for slaughter increased, and the pork price continued to fall, with the market oscillating and falling [11].

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2506） IH主力合约（2506） IC主力合约（2506） | 3852.0 2674.0 5723.6 | +8.2↑ IF次主力合约（2509） -0.4↓ IH次主力合约（2509） +34.8↑ IC次主力合约（2509） | 3776.0 2637.8 5530.6 | +5.8↑ -0.2↓ +30.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2506） | 6101.6 | +49.8↑ IM次主力合约（2509） | 5841.0 | +47.2↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1178.0 | +9.2↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1871.6 | +25.2↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 378.0 | +12.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3049.6 | +34.4↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2249.6 | +38.0↑ IM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand expectation for steel products is weak, the cost - side support is shifting down, and the short - term macro - policy expectation is limited. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly in June [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core Logic**: In May, China's manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line; the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts slowed down, and Trump increased the steel import tariff to 50%, which had limited impact on China's steel exports. On the fundamental side, in terms of supply, due to the profit margins of steel mills, the hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased last week. On the demand side, as the south entered the rainy season, the demand continued to be weak; the profit of hot - rolled coils was less than that of rebar, and the demand change needed to be observed after the tariff policy eased. In terms of inventory, the factory and social inventories continued to be destocked, and suppliers' willingness to take delivery was weak. Coke still had a downward adjustment expectation, and its support for the cost of finished products should be continuously monitored [13]. - **Spot and Futures**: In May, the spot price of steel products showed a fluctuating downward trend. For futures, the closing price of the rebar 10 - contract on May 30 was 2,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 4.36% compared with the end of April. The basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 128 yuan/ton or 4.00% compared with the end of April. The basis was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. In May, the open interest of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the open interest was negatively correlated with the futures price. The futures price curves of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed from Contango to Back structure [13]. - **Spread**: As of May 30, the rebar - iron ore spread (main contract) was 2,259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.22, a decrease of 0.18 compared with the end of April. The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (10 - contract) was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar spread in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [13]. - **Supply**: In May, steel mills had strong production enthusiasm, the hot metal cost decreased, and the output remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day. The hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises in May remained above 2.4 million tons per day, and the blast furnace operating rate remained above 80%. The rebar output in May was about 2.25 million tons per week, a decrease compared with April. The hot - rolled coil output fluctuated in May, with a minimum of 3.06 million tons per week and a maximum of 3.2 million tons per week. As of May 30, the含税 cost of hot metal in Hebei was 2,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month [13]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar in the housing construction sector was limited, and the infrastructure sector provided some support; the demand for coils was weak. In May, the apparent demand for rebar decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. There was a small increase in the apparent demand for rebar before the May Day holiday due to inventory replenishment, but the demand was average after the holiday. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils in May fluctuated around 3.2 million tons per week, basically the same as in previous years. The profitability ratio of 247 steel enterprises in May was close to 60%, and there was still a high profit margin in steel production. The cement delivery volume in May fluctuated around 3.3 - 3.6 million tons per week, at a low level compared with the same period last year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was around 1.9 million tons per week, basically the same as last year. In May, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the boom - bust line [13]. - **Inventory**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to be destocked, and the inventory pressure was small. As of the week of May 30, the factory inventory of rebar was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 72,700 tons compared with the end of April; the social inventory was 3.9459 million tons, a decrease of 1.1401 million tons compared with the end of April. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils was 750,200 tons, a decrease of 98,100 tons compared with the end of April; the social inventory was 2.5779 million tons, a decrease of 250,700 tons compared with the end of April [13]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that steel products will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend. The range of the rebar 10 - contract is [2,900 - 3,050], and the range of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract is [3,050 - 3,200]. Be cautious about chasing high prices [13]. 3.2 Macro Level - International news: Trump increased tariffs on steel, but China's steel exports to the US were low, so the overall impact was limited; the Fed was more cautious about interest rate cuts, and the pace might slow down. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased to the highest level since November 2021 [15][16]. - Domestic news: In May, both the manufacturing PMI indices of the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin were below the boom - bust line, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing prosperity. The local bond issuance rhythm accelerated this year, but some funds were used for debt resolution and storage. Overall, infrastructure provided some support, but the increment was limited [15][16]. 3.3 Spot and Basis - **Steel Price Trend**: In May, the spot price of steel products showed a fluctuating downward trend. After inventory replenishment before the May Day holiday, the steel price stabilized. After the news of the substantial progress in the China - US talks on the 12th was announced, the market sentiment warmed up. The price of rebar in Shanghai reached a maximum of 3,250 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coils rose to 3,320 yuan/ton. However, limited by the weak downstream demand for steel, the price of finished products continued to fall. In terms of rebar, the price in the southern region decreased significantly due to the rainy season; the decline of hot - rolled coils was smaller than that of rebar, and the downstream demand was relatively strong [18]. - **Rebar Futures**: The closing price of the rebar 10 - contract on May 30 was 2,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 4.36% compared with the end of April. After the May Day holiday, the futures market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The central bank's small - scale interest rate cut on May 7 had limited stimulus to the market. After the substantial progress in the China - US talks on May 12, the subsequent tariff policy stimulated the market to warm up, and the futures price continued to rise until the 15th, but did not exceed 3,140 yuan/ton. Then the price continued to decline, and the closing price on the 27th fell below 3,000 yuan/ton. Although the rebar inventory remained at a low level, the price continued to fall due to the weak terminal housing construction and limited infrastructure growth. At the end of the month, the basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [20]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: As of May 30, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 128 yuan/ton or 4.00% compared with the end of April. The trend of hot - rolled coil futures in May was similar to that of rebar, showing a "first rise and then fall" trend. Due to the easing of the tariff policy, the closing price reached a monthly high of 3,267 yuan/ton on the 14th, and then the price continued to fall. The difference in the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils from rebar was that the downstream demand was relatively strong. The "Two New" policies stimulated the demand for coils in equipment, home appliances, etc. However, under the previous "rush to export" situation, the order volume support weakened, and the cold - rolled coil had been in a loss for a long time. The subsequent demand for coils needed to be observed. The spot price of hot - rolled coils was more stable than the futures price, and the basis of hot - rolled coils strengthened in May. At the end of May, the basis of hot - rolled coils was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [31]. 3.4 Spread - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio**: As of May 30, the rebar - iron ore difference (main contract) was 2,259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.22, a decrease of 0.18 compared with the end of April. In May, the decline of the main contract of iron ore was 0.21%, so the rebar - iron ore ratio decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, the hot metal output in May remained above 2.4 million tons per week, so the demand for iron ore was not weak. In terms of inventory, steel mills maintained low inventory and mainly purchased on demand; due to the high hot metal output, the port inventory continued to be slightly destocked, and the overall inventory pressure was small. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore in the black sector were stronger than those of steel and coal. Currently, the rebar - iron ore ratio was at a low level in the same period of previous years, and there was still a profit margin for steel mills. The arbitrage opportunity of the rebar - iron ore ratio needed to be observed [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread**: As of May 30, the hot - rolled coil - rebar difference (10 - contract) was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar difference in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. In May, the fluctuation of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was limited, mainly because the demand for finished products was weak. In the building materials sector, due to the rainy season in the south, the investment in housing construction continued to decline, and the infrastructure increment was limited, so the demand for building materials was still weak. In the coil sector, the demand was limited after the previous "rush to export". From the manufacturing PMI index, the new order index was below 50% for two consecutive months, and the downstream replenishment willingness was limited. Currently, the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was at an average level, and the arbitrage opportunity was limited. It was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3.5 Supply - **Overall Steel Output**: In May, the weekly output of the five major steel products was above 8.6 million tons, a decrease compared with the same period last year. It was expected that some hot metal flowed to products other than the five major steel products. Due to Vietnam's anti - dumping on China's hot - rolled coil exports, the export of steel billets and bars was strong, and some hot metal flowed to the steel billet direction [51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Output**: The rebar output in May was about 2.25 million tons per week, a decrease compared with April and a slight year - on - year decrease. The hot - rolled coil output fluctuated in May, with a minimum of 3.06 million tons per week and a maximum of 3.2 million tons per week [53]. - **Regional Rebar Output**: In May, the rebar output in the East China region gradually decreased. As of the last week of May, the rebar output was 986,700 tons, a decrease of 65,100 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The weekly output in the South region continued to decline, and the output in the last week of May was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 56,700 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The rebar output in the North China region reached a peak and then decreased. The output in the fourth week of May was 530,600 tons, at a high level, but the output in the last week of May was 509,000 tons [58]. - **Long - and Short - Flow Rebar Output**: The long - flow rebar output remained basically the same, and the short - flow output decreased. Due to the existing orders of steel mills and the decrease in the cost of furnace materials, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar remained high, and the long - flow output remained at a high level. However, in the electric furnace sector, due to the continuous weakening of the finished product price and the relatively stable scrap steel price, the profit of electric furnaces in the East China region continued to decline, and there was a small loss in valley - electricity production at the end of the month, resulting in a decrease in electric furnace output [62]. - **Hot Metal Output and Blast Furnace Operation**: The hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day. As of the week of May 30, the daily average hot metal output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 35,100 tons per day compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of 60,800 tons per day compared with the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 83.87%, a decrease of 0.46% compared with the beginning of the month. In the week of May 30, 4 blast furnaces were restarted, and 2 were under maintenance [65]. - **Electric Furnace Operation and Iron - Scrap Difference**: The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces increased. The scrap steel consumption this week was 254,500 tons, an increase of 72,100 tons per week compared with the beginning of the month, but a decrease compared with the previous week. The iron - scrap difference continued to be negative. As of May 30, the含税 cost of hot metal in Hebei was 2,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month; the iron - scrap difference at the end of May was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month [67][68]. 3.6 Demand - **Building Materials and Hot - Rolled Coil Demand**: In May, the apparent demand for rebar decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. There was a small increase in the apparent demand for rebar before the May Day holiday due to inventory replenishment, but the demand was average after the holiday. The real estate investment and sales data were still weak. Although the infrastructure bond issuance speed was fast, most of the funds were used for debt resolution, so the increment in steel demand was limited. Due to the rainy season in the south, the demand for building materials was still weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils in May fluctuated around 3.2 million tons per week, basically the same as in previous years. The downstream demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively strong due to the continuous subsidy of the "Two New" policies, the increase in shipbuilding orders, but the increase in cold - rolled coil demand was limited. Currently, with the easing of the tariff policy, the demand for hot - rolled coils needed to be observed [72]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: The profitability ratio of 247 steel enterprises in May was close to 60%, and there was still a high profit margin in steel production. Steel mills controlled the production rhythm, with extremely low finished product inventory to ease the supply - demand contradiction in the case of expected weak demand, and mainly purchased raw materials on demand, so it was difficult for the prices of iron ore and coal to rise [75]. - **Profit of Different Steel Products**: The profit of blast furnace - produced rebar was relatively high in May. As of May 30, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar was 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. In May, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar remained around 100 yuan/ton. The decline of rebar and steel billet prices this month was about 100 yuan/ton, and the price difference between them remained at about 300 yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit in May

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum and Alumina Contracts**: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures both increased, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract closing at 20,075 yuan/ton (+215 yuan) and the alumina futures main contract at 3,063 yuan/ton (+65 yuan). The positions of the main contracts of both decreased, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract position at 189,969 hands (-1175 hands) and the alumina main contract position at 299,898 hands (-11326 hands) [2] - **LME Aluminum and Related Data**: The LME aluminum three - month quotation decreased to 2,470.50 US dollars/ton (-2.50 US dollars), the LME aluminum注销仓单 decreased to 46,025 tons (-2400 tons), and the LME aluminum inventory increased to 367,875 tons (+4819 tons) [2] - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratios**: The Shanghai aluminum SHFE warehouse receipts decreased to 48,989 tons (-1905 tons), and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.13 (+0.10) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum and Alumina Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price increased to 20,280 yuan/ton (+160 yuan), and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price increased to 20,100 yuan/ton (+240 yuan). The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous remained unchanged at 3,260 yuan/ton [2] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wumaot aluminum premium decreased to 90 yuan/ton (-20 yuan), and the LME aluminum premium increased. The basis for electrolytic aluminum decreased to 205 yuan/ton (-55 yuan), and the basis for alumina decreased to 197 yuan/ton (-65 yuan) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Demand**: Alumina production decreased to 732.30 million tons (-15.22 million tons), the capacity utilization rate decreased to 82.10% (-6.18%), the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) decreased to 693.70 million tons (-30.02 million tons), and the supply - demand balance decreased to - 9.93 million tons (-13.48 million tons) [2] - **Alumina Trade**: Alumina exports decreased to 26 million tons (-4 million tons), and imports decreased to 1.07 million tons (-0.05 million tons) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Trade**: The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased to 4,518.20 million tons (+1.00 million tons), the production of primary aluminum imports increased to 250,476.81 tons (+28656.52 tons), and the exports increased to 13,672.79 tons (+4972.94 tons) [2] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory and开工率**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased to 48.20 million tons (-2.30 million tons), and the electrolytic aluminum开工率 increased to 97.60% (+0.10%) [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Product Output**: The output of aluminum products decreased to 576.40 million tons (-21.77 million tons), the output of aluminum alloy decreased to 152.80 million tons (-12.70 million tons), and automobile production decreased to 260.40 million vehicles (-44.06 million vehicles) [2] - **Export Volume**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased to 52 million tons (+1 million tons), and the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased to 1.66 million tons (-0.16 million tons) [2] 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai aluminum increased to 12.39% (+0.36%) and 15.48% (+0.24%) respectively. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV decreased to 9.87% (-0.0069%), and the option call - put ratio increased to 0.67 (+0.0252) [2] 3.7 Industry News - **Economic Forecast**: The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the United States and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop to 2.9% [2] - **Manufacturing PMI**: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - **Automobile Industry Initiative**: The All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative to resist "price war" competition and regulate the industry [2] - **Tariff Policy**: US President Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4, 2025 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed up, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. The market is facing uncertainties due to overseas trade issues and domestic economic conditions. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line. The index is oscillating near the gap before the market's sharp decline on April 3rd, facing significant upward pressure. The market is in a policy vacuum period, lacking a clear short - term main line and expected to maintain an oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - All main and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed upward trends. For example, the IF main contract (2506) rose to 3842.4, up 15.6. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts mostly decreased. For instance, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 73.0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF and IC decreased, while that of IH increased. The net position of IM decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 29,186.00, down 347.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. The basis of the corresponding main contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 3868.74, up 16.7, and the IF main contract basis was - 26.3, up 0.9 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume, margin trading balance, and north - bound trading volume all increased. The proportion of rising stocks increased, while the Shibor decreased. Option prices and implied volatilities also changed. For example, A - share trading volume reached 11,774.13 billion yuan, up 135.83 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital aspects showed upward trends. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. New export and import order indices increased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US will raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31 [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - Important economic data and events to watch include the US May ADP employment number on June 4 at 20:15, the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision on June 4 at 21:45, etc [3].

中国香港5月标普全球制造业PMI 49，前值48.3。 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 3, totaling 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a bid and winning amount of 454.5 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 830 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a balanced but slightly loose funding condition, with the overnight weighted average rate for deposit institutions around 1.40% and non-bank institutions borrowing at approximately 1.55% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.35% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.71% [6] Group 4: Major Interest Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds were as follows: - 1Y: 1.4625% - 2Y: 1.4800% - 3Y: 1.4875% - 5Y: 1.5450% - 7Y: 1.6300% - 10Y: 1.6770% [9] Group 5: Recent City Investment Bonds (AAA) Spread Trends - The article discusses the trends and data regarding the spreads of city investment bonds, indicating ongoing monitoring of the market [10] Group 6: National Debt Futures Closing - The closing prices for national debt futures were as follows: - 30-year main contract increased by 0.03% - 10-year main contract decreased by 0.03% - 5-year main contract decreased by 0.04% - 2-year main contract decreased by 0.04% [12] Group 7: Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded at 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024 [13] - In May, the central bank conducted a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan for the month [13] Group 8: Global Macro Outlook - The OECD has revised down its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% from 3.1%, and for the U.S. to 1.6% from 2.2% [15] Group 9: Bond Market News - Notable bond market events include: - New World Development's issuance of $3.4 billion perpetual securities - Jin Ke Co.'s restructuring plan entering the execution phase - Kunming City Investment facing two new enforcement actions involving over 220 million yuan [16]

8. 美联储-洛根：应专注于实现2%的通胀目标，而不是试图弥补过去的通胀不足、博斯蒂克：仍然认为 今年可能会有一次降息。 2. 王毅会见美国新任驻华大使庞德伟。 3. 油价上调，加满一箱油将多花2.5元。 4. 商务部等五部门组织开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动。 5. 王文涛在法国分别会见澳大利亚贸易部长和欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员。 6. 李强日前签署国务院令，公布《政务数据共享条例》，自2025年8月1日起施行。 7. 全国工商联汽车经销商商会倡议：坚决抵制以"价格战"为主要形式的"内卷式"竞争行为。 国内新闻： 国际新闻： 1. 关税-①特朗普政府上调钢铝关税至50%，4日起效 ②消息人士：美国在关税谈判中向越南提出了一 份"又长又苛刻"的要求清单 ③消息人士：欧盟未收到美国要求提供 "最佳贸易报价"的信件 ④巴西总 统：若未能与美就关税达成协议，将诉诸世贸组织，或采取对等措施 ⑤印度-欧盟自贸协定加速推进 近 半议题已达成共识。 2. 荷兰首相宣布将递交辞呈。 金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（6月4日） 1. 白宫称中美领导人本周将举行会谈，外交部：没有可以提供的消息。 8. 5月财新中国制造 ...

每经记者｜郑步春 每经编辑｜赵云 端午小长假后首个交易日，A股低开，但随后表现不错，各大股指均录得些许涨幅。截至收盘，上证综 指涨0.43%至3361.98点；深综指涨0.48%，创业板综指涨0.85%，科创50指数涨0.48%，北证50指数涨 1.03%。全A总成交额为11638亿元，与上周五的11643亿元大致持平。 周一美元大跌的诱因主要有三个： 一是特朗普政府又开始在关税相关政策方面胡搅蛮缠，多数市场人士相信美国这是"自损"，故美元承 压。 二是美国新公布的ISM制造业PMI数据大幅不及预期，加重市场对美国经济增长放缓的担忧。 三是摩根士丹利大举唱空美元，其预测美元会在一年内贬9%。 周二上午公布的财新5月份中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为48.3，弱于4月的50.4，也弱于预期的 50.7。该数据明显与上周末公布的官方数据背离，因官方5月PMI由4月的49.0上升至49.5。其对A股的压 制也不明显，部分投资者反而对经济刺激政策加码的预期有所抬升。 预计中短期内，A股大体上仍将延续横盘震荡态势，如果短期内中美在贸易或关税等领域的谈判有大消 息，则不排除短期内波动有所加大的可能。操作方面，建议投资 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Macro - aspect: Internationally, the US May ISM manufacturing index was 48.5, with manufacturing activity contracting for the fourth consecutive month, and sales - cost inflation reaching the highest level since late 2022. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The economic recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policies are expected to be further strengthened [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and smelter profits have been further repaired. However, a zinc smelter in South China has extended its maintenance, and the import window is closed. On the demand side, it is at the end of the peak season, and downstream demand may shrink, but low zinc prices have led to increased bargain - hunting purchases, and inventories are decreasing. - Technical aspect: There is an increase in positions and a decline in price, with a strong bearish atmosphere. Zinc prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and observe, focusing on the range of 21,800 - 22,300 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was 240 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,693 dollars/ton, up 63.5 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc was 238,690 lots, up 12,016 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 1,909 lots, up 1,365 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 1,675 tons, unchanged. - The SHFE inventory was 42,310 tons, down 1,763 tons; the LME inventory was 138,150 tons, down 1,000 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,790 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,440 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 610 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 26.08 dollars/ton, down 2.65 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production was 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory was 56,800 tons, down 2,200 tons. - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. - The automobile production was 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc was 15.94%, up 0.76 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc was 15.94%, up 0.76 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 12.27%, up 0.62 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 16.87%, up 0.02 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. - The sales volume of consumer goods trade - in has exceeded 1 trillion yuan. As of May 31, 5 major categories of consumer goods trade - in have driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with about 175 million subsidies issued. - The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value was 52, with an initial value of 52.3. - Fed's Daly said she is still comfortable with the Fed's March forecast, which shows two rate cuts by the end of the year. She hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive policy rate for now [3].