1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a volatile upward trend, with a decline in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The raw material prices are under pressure, supply-side cost support is weakening, and production cuts and maintenance are increasing. Demand growth is slowing down near the end of the peak consumption season, and inventory remains high. The options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short-selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 61,080 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is -6,216 hands, down 1,545 hands; the open interest of the main contract is 245,650 hands, down 14,008 hands; the spread between near and far contracts is 0 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 33,461 hands/ton, up 64 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 60,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 58,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is -830 yuan/ton, down 1,190 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 712 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,555 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the prices of manganese lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt lithium, and ternary materials remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of ternary materials (523 single-crystal type) and lithium iron phosphate remain unchanged. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 47%, down 10 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles. The 20-day average volatility of the underlying is 28.21%, up 1.15 percentage points; the 40-day average volatility is 22.88%, up 0.70 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The total call open interest is 255,727 contracts, up 8,642 contracts; the total put open interest is 100,353 contracts, up 16,301 contracts; the put-call ratio of total open interest is 39.24%, up 5.2248 percentage points; the at-the-money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0054 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative against "involutionary" competition. The five departments including the Ministry of Commerce launched the 2025 new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The OECD lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%), and raised the overall inflation forecast for the US this year by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is facing a new wave of price wars, which has raised concerns about unhealthy competition, profit erosion, and potential risks to product quality and consumer safety [1][6]. Group 1: Price War Characteristics - The current price war is characterized by three main features: greater intensity, broader scope, and faster response times. Over 20 mainstream brands have participated, with discounts typically ranging from 10% to 30%, and some models seeing reductions exceeding 40% [5]. - The inventory pressure in the automotive sector has reached alarming levels, with the inventory warning index hitting 62% in April 2025, indicating a significant oversupply [4]. - Consumer sentiment has shifted, with many now associating price cuts with reduced quality, leading to a decline in brand loyalty [7]. Group 2: Impact on the Industry - The ongoing price wars are expected to compress profit margins significantly, with projections indicating that leading automakers' net profit margins could drop from 8% to below 5% by 2025 [7]. - The average R&D intensity in the automotive industry is forecasted to decrease from 5.2% in 2024 to 4.1% in 2025, potentially hindering technological advancements and product safety [7]. - The pressure on supply chain companies is increasing, with component manufacturers facing forced price reductions that could lead to systemic risks in battery safety and chip supply [7]. Group 3: Recommendations to Address Price Wars - To mitigate the effects of the price war, it is suggested that automakers establish rational competition mechanisms, potentially modeled after the German automotive industry's practices [9]. - The government is encouraged to enhance regulatory oversight and implement stricter controls, including quality traceability systems for discounted models [9]. - Industry organizations should create collaborative platforms to improve supply and demand forecasting mechanisms [10].

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant price cuts by certain automotive companies have triggered a new wave of "price war" panic, prompting responses from the China Automobile Industry Association and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to oppose disorderly price competition and enhance regulation of "involution" in the automotive industry [1] Industry Summary - The future of the Chinese automotive industry is seen as a competition based on "value" rather than "price," as emphasized by numerous automotive executives [1] - The era of imitation and mass consumption is coming to an end, with personalized and diversified consumption becoming mainstream [1] - There is a growing expectation among consumers for higher levels of value for money, moving away from price wars towards a focus on the value chain [1]

反内卷不打价格战 昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 美国白宫宣布 提高进口钢铝关税至50% 据央视新闻报道， 当地时间6月3日， 美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢 铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50% ，该关税政策自美国东部时间4日凌晨00时 01分起生效。声明表示，美国从英国进口的钢铝关税仍将维持在25%。自2025年7月9日 起，美方可根据《环境政策声明》的条款调整适用的关税税率，并制定钢铝的进口配额。如 果英国被认定为未遵守《环境政策声明》的相关规定，则可将适用关税税率提高至50%。 雷军最新发声！ 6月3日，小米集团创始人雷军在小米投资者大会上表示，小米汽车业务将在2025年三四季 度实现盈利。关于小米YU7的售价，雷军称不可能是网传的23.59万元，正式定价要到开售 一至两天前确定。雷军还表示，小米反内卷"不打价格战"，很快将做汽车芯片，芯片等新 业务也有望在2025年三四季度打平并实现盈利。此外，雷军透露小米五年前就开始投资研 发机器人领域，目前汽车工厂正在试用相关能力，汽车芯片也在研发中。 油价上涨！ 据国家发展改革委消息，国内汽柴油价格于3日24时上调。 折算成升价， 92#汽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future profitability of liquor circulation products is predicted to be challenging due to the ongoing influence of the internet and the rapid expansion of various platforms in the liquor industry [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Meituan's flash purchase event reported that over 23,000 people reserved the limited 1499 yuan Moutai within 12 hours, with overall liquor sales reaching 3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 200 times [3][5] - The flash purchase of Moutai will occur in three rounds from May 28 to June 18, 2024, indicating a strategic approach to maintain consumer interest throughout the promotional period [5] - The liquor market is experiencing significant growth, with Meituan's flash purchase platform expected to see major breakthroughs, particularly in beer sales, which have already produced multiple brands with annual sales exceeding 1 billion yuan [5] Group 2: Pricing Strategies - Meituan's pricing strategy includes offering Moutai at 858 yuan, significantly lower than the 979-1000 yuan range on other platforms, which has attracted consumers looking for bargains [6] - The introduction of the 618 yuan coupon package by Meituan is seen as a powerful tool to lower prices compared to traditional e-commerce platforms, potentially igniting a price war in the liquor market [5][9] - The presence of low-priced liquor products on Meituan, such as 10 yuan for Xiao Lang Jiu and 297 yuan for Shui Jing Fang, caters to various consumer demands for budget-friendly options [9] Group 3: Industry Concerns - There are concerns within the industry regarding the potential collapse of the pricing system due to aggressive price competition, which has already led to the closure of many retail outlets [9][10] - Historical context is provided by referencing past price wars in the liquor sector, highlighting the competitive nature of platforms like Jiuxian and 1919, which previously engaged in aggressive pricing strategies [10][11] - Despite the current competitive landscape, the immediate threat of a severe price war appears limited, as platforms are adopting a more rational approach to competition and fostering closer collaboration with manufacturers [11][12] Group 4: Future Projections - The liquor instant retail market has grown over five times from 2020 to 2022, with projections indicating that the overall instant retail market could exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027, with liquor penetration expected to reach 35% [11][12] - This growth suggests the formation of a consumer market exceeding 200 billion yuan, necessitating a reevaluation of pricing strategies and profit-sharing mechanisms within the industry [12]

2025.06. 03 本文字数：1919，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 武子晔 6月3日，全国工商联汽车经销商商会发布的《关于反对"内卷式"竞争，促进汽车经销行业高质量发 展的倡议》。而几天前，中国汽车工业协会、工信部纷纷发声表示反对汽车价格战。 而汽车行业的价格战从2022年下半年开始，多个品牌的产品售价开始大幅度下降。2024年以来，汽 车价格战蔓延，涉及车型范围更广，持续时间也较长。在此背景下，汽车经销商盈利能力进一步减 弱，新车销售亏损是最大挑战之一。面临激烈的市场竞争，厂家与经销商纷纷采取"以价换量"的策 略，不遗余力地争夺市场份额，因此出现增量不增收，增收不增利的状况，多数品牌价格倒挂加剧。 中国汽车流通调查报告显示，2024年度汽车经销商盈利比例为39.3%，持平比例为19%，亏损比例 为41.7%。 "价格战非常卷，这导致经销商每辆车进销差加大，而厂家给的返利又存在一定的滞后性。"某汽车 销售公司管理层人士在接受记者采访时表示，在亏钱卖车的情况下，4S店通常会通过售后、厂家返 点等方式来实现盈利。同时，主机厂会给经销商设定多种商务政策，包括销售返利、金融贴息、月度 促销、季度促销等 ...

金十数据整理：6月3日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 1. 关税——①印度-欧盟自贸协定加速推进 近半议题已达成共识。②消息人士：美国在关税谈判中向越 南提出了一份"又长又苛刻"的要求清单。③消息人士：欧盟未收到美国要求在星期三之前提供 "最佳贸 易报价"的信件。④日本央行行长植田和男：目前与美国的多项贸易谈判仍在进行中，市场不确定性依 然较高。⑤印尼高级经济部长：印尼承诺在定于6月在华盛顿举行的第二轮谈判之前，提供针对美国商 品的优惠关税清单。⑥巴西总统卢拉：我们一直在寻求与美国政府就关税问题进行谈判。 6. 美国4月空缺职位意外大增，4月工厂订单月率录得2024年1月以来最大降幅。 2. 全国工商联汽车经销商商会倡议：坚决抵制以"价格战"为主要形式的"内卷式"竞争行为。 3. 商务部等五部门组织开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动，特斯拉Model 3、Model Y车型在列。 4. 白宫称中美领导人本周将举行会谈，外交部发言人林剑表示，我没有可以提供的消息。 5. 美方称中方违反日内瓦会谈共识，外交部：坚决反对。 6. 端午假期全社会跨区域人员流动量累计超6.53亿人次，同比增长2.5%。 7. 从6月3日24时起， ...

中国汽车产业正处于从"量变"到"质变"的关键阶段，价格战或许能带来短期销量增长，但长远来看，它 透支的是行业的创新力、品牌的溢价能力和消费者的信任。车企应该有远见卓识，唯有挣脱"低端泥 潭"，中国汽车产业才能迎来真正属于自己"质"与"量"双翼齐飞的新天地。 行业数据显示，2024年我国汽车产销量双双超过3100万辆，再创历史新高，但当年汽车行业利润率仅为 4.3%，2025年一季度进一步下滑至3.9%，显著低于整个下游工业利润率水平。规模与利润间的巨大反 差，一定程度上反映出价格战给企业利润带来的负面影响和压力。 放眼全球产业竞争史，深陷"低价-低质-更低利润"怪圈而无力自拔的教训比比皆是。一些曾经风光的消 费电子品牌，因长期依赖价格厮杀、忽略核心技术沉淀与品牌价值塑造，最终被市场无情淘汰。 只有摆脱价格战这一低水平消耗战，中国汽车产业尤其是新能源车产业才能打开更开阔的发展空间。那 么，如何摆脱低质量的价格战？笔者认为，需要国家政策和整个汽车行业的引导和自律。行业协会可搭 建技术共享平台，推动电池回收、自动驾驶等共性技术攻关。车企的战略清醒与定力也至关重要，只有 将资源持续倾注于核心技术创新、制造工艺精进、品 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, the automotive market saw significant sales growth, with BYD leading the way, while competition intensified among various car manufacturers, including new energy vehicle companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: BYD Performance - In May, BYD achieved sales of approximately 382,500 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, setting a new monthly sales record for the year [1]. - Cumulatively, BYD's sales for the first five months reached 1.7634 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.7% [1]. Group 2: Competitors' Performance - Four car manufacturers surpassed cumulative sales of 1 million vehicles in the first five months, with SAIC Group selling about 1.687 million vehicles, trailing BYD by less than 100,000 vehicles [3]. - In May, SAIC Group's sales were approximately 366,000 vehicles, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [3]. - Geely and Chery also joined the "million club," with Geely's cumulative sales at about 1.173 million vehicles (up 49%) and Chery's at approximately 1.0265 million vehicles (up 14%) [3]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Companies - New energy vehicle companies like Zeekr, Leap Motor, and Li Auto reported strong performances, with Zeekr selling about 46,500 vehicles in May, maintaining over 40,000 monthly sales for three consecutive months [4]. - Leap Motor's May delivery was approximately 45,000 vehicles, while Li Auto delivered around 40,800 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [4]. - Xpeng Motors saw a significant increase, delivering about 33,500 vehicles in May, a year-on-year growth of 230% [4]. Group 4: Market Trends and Price Competition - The automotive market in May experienced a new round of price wars, prompting the China Automotive Industry Association to advocate for fair competition and oppose bottomless price wars [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology expressed support for the association's initiative, emphasizing the need to maintain a healthy competitive environment in the industry [6].

Group 1 - The international financial market experienced increased uncertainty following recent events, leading to a surge in gold prices, which rose by 2-3% to over $3,400 [1] - The A-share market showed resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 14 points on the first trading day after the holiday, despite a PMI reading of 49.5 in May, indicating economic contraction [1][3] - The real estate market's ongoing downturn is a significant factor, with sales from the top 100 real estate companies declining by 10.8% year-on-year from January to May, and a 17.3% drop in May alone [3] Group 2 - The market's upward movement is primarily driven by institutional investors, making it challenging for retail investors to benefit from the index rise [5] - The concentration of institutional control in the market means that retail investors have limited visibility into the underlying dynamics, akin to a card game where only the dealer sees all players' cards [5][7] - The emergence of quantitative models allows for better tracking of institutional trading behaviors, providing retail investors with insights into market movements [7][9] Group 3 - Special attention should be given to "strong recovery" and "strong sell-off" states, as they indicate potential turning points in trading dynamics [10] - The "instant inventory" data, which recently dropped to over 2,100 companies, serves as a warning signal; a drop below 2,000 would indicate a loss of institutional interest in over half of the stocks [13]