【环球网财经综合报道】1月22日，国际贵金属市场在周二凌晨迎来剧烈波动，黄金价格在地缘政治紧张局势和美联 储货币政策不确定性的双重推动下，首次突破每盎司4800美元大关，创下历史新高；而白银价格则在触及历史高位后 回落，呈现宽幅震荡格局。 黄金狂飙突破 4800 美元，避险需求成核心驱动力 据《环球邮报》报道，全球地缘政治形势推动下，黄金价格首次突破每盎司4800美元，铂金创纪录高位，钯金微跌， 白银价格一度触及历史高点。 分析称，白银期货合约的推出以及贵金属市场供需结构的变化是导致价格剧烈波动的原因之一。 尽管短期出现回调，但机构对白银后市依然乐观。ANZ商品策略师Soni Kumari表示："考虑到我们看到的价格动力， 白银涨至三位数看起来是可能的。"不过她也提醒投资者，价格不会单向移动，未来可能会出现价格修正，且市场波 动性可能更高。 高盛一月内两度上调目标价，看涨情绪高涨 市场分析人士指出，全球地缘政治形势的复杂变化是推动金价飙升的主要原因。RJO Futures高级市场策略师Bob Haberkorn表示："市场存在一些担心错过这波交易的风险（FOMO），鉴于全球地缘政治形势，目前黄金和白银价格 的 ...

（王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场继续上涨，Wind全A上涨0.57%，成交额2.62万亿元。中证1000指数上涨0.79%，中证 500指数上涨1.12%，沪深300指数上涨0.09%，上证50指数下跌0.11%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政 策，对指数形成基本面支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基金 加强政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步规范地方经济促进行为；（3） 正在谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构 性货币政策工具利率25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠 养老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特 定领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。长期 来看，有助于相关板块降低融资成本，提升资本开始，实施更加积极的发展战略。此前，沪深交易所发 布通知，将融资买入证券保证金最低比例由80%调为100%，尽管实际影 ...

特朗普引爆地缘"恐慌"之际，达沃斯"秀场"引发全球瞩目。 日前，世界经济论坛 · 达沃斯年会在瑞士启幕，多国政要、商界巨擘齐聚于此。 据说，此次论坛将有400位顶级政治领导人出席，还有约1700位商界领袖参会。 此次行程，特朗普将就格陵兰岛争端与各方举行会谈。 在启程前，他便宣称"夺岛的计划没有回头路可走"，达沃斯之行将会非常有趣。 特朗普执意"夺岛"，跨大西洋同盟正陷入数十年来最严重的危机。 近期，特朗普宣布对欧洲八国家征收10%的关税，对法国葡萄酒和香槟征200%关税… 贸易战的阴云，彻底笼罩了本届达沃斯论坛。 目前，特朗普政府几大关键人物也纷纷就美国经济、贸易关税等问题表态。 美国财长贝森特在达沃斯紧急"灭火"。 全球秩序持续"地震"的当下，地缘政治、贸易关税、科技AI等热议话题成为世界关注的焦点。 迟到的特朗普 处于世界风暴中心的特朗普，姗姗来迟。 据世界经济论坛对外公布的日程，特朗普原将于北京时间21:30在达沃斯发表公开讲话。 但因为总统专机故障导致行程延误，川普将迟到大约3个小时抵达达沃斯。 他呼吁盟友遵守贸易协定，不担忧美债抛售问题，并驳斥欧洲将"清仓"美债报复特朗普为"无稽之谈"。 他还透露 ...

美国股债汇三杀解读 20260121 摘要 特朗普政府对格陵兰岛的兴趣源于其地缘战略位置和丰富的稀土、石油 资源，虽遭丹麦拒绝出售，但美国可能通过关税等手段施压，对欧洲经 济构成潜在威胁。 日本首相高市早苗解散众议院旨在打破财政法案推行僵局，寻求更多支 持以实施财政计划，但面临公明党反水和在野党竞争的挑战，选举结果 存在不确定性。 美国资产避险属性减弱，美元走弱，美债利率攀升，丹麦养老金降低美 债头寸，欧盟讨论将美债作为金融武器，资金流出压力增加，传统避险 资产如贵金属或受益。 海外市场波动可能通过次生地缘风险影响中国，如欧洲为维稳美欧关系 采取更鹰派姿态，对中国产生负面影响，美国中期选举期间市场波动性 可能增加。 2026 年美国经济波动受执政党和在野党政治博弈影响，财政刺激与反 制措施交织，加剧金融市场不稳定，国际事件如格陵兰岛争议亦带来不 确定性。 特朗普对格陵兰岛采取行动有两大原因：首先，格陵兰岛位于连通北极的重要 航道上，是一个关键地缘点。如果北极冰层融化，它将重塑全球航运格局。其 次，格陵兰拥有丰富的稀土和石油资源，这些资源尚待开发。近期特朗普在被 海外市场波动可能对中国投资者带来短期风险压力，但 ...

新高之后，黄金何去何从 - 联合解读会议 20260121 摘要 最近一段时间，地缘政治因素叠加，使得贵金属黄金价格不断上行，创出新高。 从宏观角度来看，黄金一直是我们持续关注并提示机会的资产。我们在过去几 年发布了一系列报告，从不同角度探讨黄金的供需关系和上涨机会。例如， 2020 年的《全球大放水会如何收场》、2021 年的《无用方为大用》、2023 年的《去美元化的黄金机遇》以及 2024 年和 2025 年的相关报告。这些报告 构成了我们持续推荐黄金的重要依据。 近年来，我们发现传统衡量黄金价值的 方法，如避险属性、美联储放水等，在长期解释力上有所不足。因此，我们回 归到供需基本面进行分析。在供给相对稳定的情况下，需求方面出现了显著增 量。居民通过 ETF 购买黄金，以及各国央行持续购金，是推动金价上涨的重要 因素。特别是在地缘政治波动加剧的背景下，具有避险属性的资产如黄金，其 需求进一步增加。 黄金市场未来趋势如何？ 从长期来看，黄金市场仍然具有很高的确定性。中国外汇储备中黄金占比已从 之前的一点几上升至接近 6%，但与全球平均水平 15%以上相比仍有较大差距， 这意味着央行购金需求尚未结束。在当前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Lead: Weak ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues such as Trump's statements and European geopolitical problems, as well as the Fed's independence, affect the prices of precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value, while short - term fluctuations are affected by various events. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but is currently affected by the off - season and inventory accumulation. Zinc, aluminum, tin, and nickel are under short - term pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances and off - season consumption. Industrial silicon and polysilicon may have short - term rebounds. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish due to supply - side disturbances [1][6][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Key Data**: SHFE gold rose 3.85% to 1092.3, COMEX gold rose 1.41% to 4836. SHFE silver fell 0.25% to 23131, COMEX silver fell 1.59% to 93. The gold - silver ratio increased. Gold ETF decreased by 4 tons to 1077.66 tons, and gold COMEX net long increased by 23606 to 251238. Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 16166 tons, and silver COMEX net long increased by 2789 to 32060 [2]. - **Market Situation**: Trump's inconsistent statements led to a short - term decline in gold after reaching a new high, and silver once tumbled nearly 5%. Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. The long - term logic for gold and silver remains bullish, with short - term support at 1040 for domestic gold and 21000 for domestic silver [2][3][4]. Copper - **Key Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was flat at 100420 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.27% to 12762 dollars/ton. The trading volume of SHFE copper main contract increased by 31%, and the inventory increased significantly. The social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons to 32.94 million tons [5]. - **Market Situation**: BHP slightly increased its 2026 fiscal - year copper production guidance. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Copper is in short - term high - level consolidation, and the long - term supply - demand logic remains positive. However, it is currently the off - season, and inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to take profits for existing long positions and wait for a full correction for new entries. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [99000, 102000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [6][7]. Zinc - **Key Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract rose 0.43% to 24300 yuan/ton, LME zinc was flat at 3175 dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 2.12%, and the inventory increased by 6518 tons on a weekly basis [8]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production is uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to wait for more macro - level guidance and for enterprises to actively arrange selling hedging. The range for SHFE zinc is [24000, 24500] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3150, 3200] dollars/ton [9][10]. Aluminum - **Key Data**: The closing price of LME aluminum fell 0.03% to 3117.5 dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum rose 0.86% to 24155 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.01% to 507175 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 29.24% to 185879 tons on a weekly basis [11]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream start - up rate is differentiated. Alumina production capacity is high, and the market surplus continues. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, with the main operation range of [23000 - 25000] yuan/ton [13][14]. Nickel - **Key Data**: The closing price of LME nickel rose 1.21% to 17975 dollars/ton, SHFE nickel rose 1.14% to 143170 yuan/ton. Stainless steel main contract rose 2.61% to 14720 yuan/ton. SMM pure nickel social inventory increased by 4.04% to 63510 tons, and SMM stainless steel social inventory decreased by 1.28% to 843700 tons [15]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia significantly reduced its 2026 nickel ore production target, and some mines may face fines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, with the main operation range of [133000 - 151000] yuan/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Key Data**: The main contract LC2605 rose 3.89% to 166740 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. Spot prices of lithium - related products generally rose, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.82% to 24510 tons, while the inventory decreased by 0.24% to 109679 tons [19]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the news of canceling the export tax rebate for lithium batteries, it rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the exchange's position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants have high production enthusiasm, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of [164000 - 175000] yuan/ton [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to consolidate with a focus on stability following the release of macroeconomic data by the National Bureau of Statistics for Q4 and the entire year, while geopolitical tensions abroad lead to volatility in capital markets [1] Market Performance - The A-share market shows strong performance in the precious metals sector, driven by rising risk aversion and increasing prices of precious metals [1] - Short-term market sentiment remains positive, with investors holding high expectations for the stock market in 2026, indicating a strong consolidation phase [1] Sector Highlights - Strong performances are noted in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronic components (CPO), and machinery equipment [1] - Significant trading volume increases in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 ETFs suggest a shift and adjustment in asset allocation by some investment institutions, impacting the performance of related sectors like banking and coal [1] Market Outlook - The short-term market is expected to experience strong consolidation, while the medium-term trend is anticipated to stabilize and rise [1] - Attention is drawn to changes in overseas factors, as well as shifts in A-share trading volume and sector hotspots [1]

【环球时报赴毛里求斯特派记者 黄培昭】编者的话：最近，印度洋上一些国家接连吸引国际视线：法 国总统马克龙将毛里求斯作为其非洲四国行的首站，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅对坦桑尼亚等 非洲国家进行访问并在归途中经停斯里兰卡。这些外交动向再次将印度洋以及该地区国家的战略意义推 向台前。浩瀚的印度洋承载着全球过半的集装箱货运和1/3的散货贸易，是连接东西方的能源与贸易命 脉，而该地区国家正是把控这条命脉的枢纽。在"聚焦印度洋"系列报道中，《环球时报》将为您讲述印 度洋日益凸显的重要性，介绍印度洋相关国家的历史与发展现状，剖析其内政外交政策以及如何与其他 国家进行合作与互动。 然而，西方国家殖民给毛里求斯留下的伤痕尚未完全愈合——查戈斯群岛仍在英国的控制下。该群岛位 于毛里求斯东北约750公里的印度洋海域，1965年毛里求斯被迫将其割让给英国。次年，英国将群岛中 的主岛迪戈加西亚租给美国建设空军基地。 迪戈加西亚岛地处印度洋上连接亚洲与非洲的主要国际贸易通道沿线。据欧洲《现代外交》等媒体报 道，美国在该岛上的基地为其在印度洋提供了重要的战略纵深和战术指挥便利。基地设施包括可停靠航 空母舰的深水港、适用于战机起飞的长 ...

在全球政治舞台上，俄罗斯总统普京犹如一颗巨石，牵动着无数国家的神经。近日，俄罗斯外交与国防政策委员会的名誉主席、普京前顾问谢尔盖·卡拉加 诺夫直言不讳地表示，如果普京遭到暗杀，欧洲将会"从人类地图上消失"。这并不是简单的恐吓，而是一个立足于现实的严峻警告。这番言论揭示了当前地 缘政治局势的脆弱性以及潜在的全球风险。 首先，在理解这一观点之前，有必要深刻认识到普京政府所面临的内外压力。俄乌战争的持续不仅仅是普京的个人选择，而是整个俄罗斯国家战略的体现。 对于克里米亚的控制、对北约东扩的反对以及在东部地区的领土诉求，这些都是俄罗斯高层广泛共识的结果。如果普京被暗杀，这些核心利益并不会因为领 导人的更换而消失。相反，新的领导者可能会采用更加激进和果断的措施来实现这些目标。 想象一下，若普京被替换的人是来自强力部门的高官，如帕特鲁舍夫或绍伊古，他们的登场可能会引发一场大规模的报复行动。这种情况下，原本可能控制 在局部的冲突将迅速升级为全面战争，甚至引发核武器的使用。俄军的重型轰炸机虽然现在依然在谨慎打击，但一旦复仇情绪上升，这种克制将不复存在， 战火将不再局限于乌克兰，而是可能蔓延至整个欧洲大陆。波兰、罗马尼亚等北约 ...

Amazon Technical AnalysisAmazon looks like it is going to be a little bit softer at the open during the trading session, as we are now between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA. This is a market that I think probably just grinds back and forth, and much like Apple does, Amazon has an earnings call here in the next week or so, and that obviously will have a major influence on where we go next.Right now, the markets are being knocked around by the headlines with Greenland and tariffs, so I wouldn’t read too ...