Core Points - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suspended certain licenses allowing American companies to sell products and technology to Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), aiming to weaken China's development of the C919 passenger aircraft [2] - This action is a response to China's export controls on key rare earth minerals, which are crucial for various U.S. industries, including automotive, aerospace, and military [4] - The C919 aircraft poses a competitive threat to Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320, as it has rapidly gained market traction and begun regular commercial operations [6] - The U.S. government is attempting to pressure China regarding rare earth exports by restricting technology related to the C919, reflecting concerns over maintaining competitive advantages in the aerospace sector [6] - The geopolitical significance of the aerospace industry is highlighted, as the success of the C919 represents China's advancements in civil aviation and enhances its influence in the global high-tech industry [6] - The U.S. strategy aims to curb China's development in high-end manufacturing sectors to maintain its global dominance [8]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market will continue to experience significant volatility into 2025, driven by policy dynamics and supply-demand imbalances, with U.S. policy movements being the largest variable affecting the market [1]. Oil Market - Oil prices are expected to gradually find a bottom, having fallen from $85 per barrel in January to $60 per barrel currently, exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The increase in oil supply in 2021 and 2022, coupled with a mismatch in supply and demand, has led to a sustained decline in oil prices [1]. - The U.S. government's aim to lower inflation by reducing oil prices and increasing energy production has been highlighted as a significant factor [2]. Demand Dynamics - Global oil demand remains strong, with a noted decline in U.S. demand, particularly in air travel, which decreased by approximately 2% from April to May [2]. - Despite the weakening demand in the U.S., international travel demand, especially from Europe, has reached new highs [2]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is stabilizing, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE diversifying their economies to reduce reliance on energy revenues [2]. - Investments in tourism, fintech, and logistics are becoming focal points for these regions, decreasing the likelihood of escalating regional conflicts [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices are projected to enter a long-term bull market, driven by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand [3]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, from 400 tons annually to 800 tons in 2022 and 1000 tons in 2023, with expectations of continued high demand [3][4]. - The emergence of new investors, particularly overseas holders of U.S. financial assets, is contributing to increased gold purchases, with a potential 0.5% shift of their $57 trillion in assets into gold leading to an additional 500 tons of demand annually [4]. Metal Market - The metal market, particularly copper, is facing challenges due to high prices and potential trade tensions, with copper currently priced at $9,500 per ton [4]. - The metal market is expected to be significantly impacted by U.S. policy changes, contrasting with the more stable outlook for oil prices [4].

国际能源署署长比罗尔：欧洲正被轻视，地缘政治或将有利于他们。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition between China and the United States in the technology sector is intensifying, with the notion of "who will win" being an outdated perspective. The rise of AI technology is reshaping industries and geopolitical landscapes, indicating that power is no longer solely determined by size and scale, but by the ability to coordinate and gain support from various parties [1]. Group 1 - The current geopolitical narrative is overly focused on traditional power concepts such as military strength and resources, which no longer accurately reflect the world's reality [1]. - The semiconductor industry exemplifies how U.S. attempts to suppress China's technological capabilities have inadvertently accelerated China's innovation [1]. - Countries that attempt to coerce others into choosing sides may face isolation, as both the U.S. and China are concerned about their national security, but this is not the only reality in today's world [1]. Group 2 - Neutral countries should focus on embedding themselves in key nodes, such as becoming financial or logistics hubs, to gain influence rather than choosing sides [2]. - Malaysia and Singapore are leveraging their positions as network hubs or logistics nodes to exert greater influence than their size would suggest [2]. - Malaysia is striving to become Southeast Asia's data center, with the total capacity of AI data centers in Johor expected to rise from 10 megawatts three years ago to over 1,500 megawatts by 2024, potentially surpassing Virginia, USA, in five years [2]. Group 3 - Concerns about the technological decoupling between China and the U.S. were expressed by executives from Chinese companies, emphasizing the desire for a world that is not fragmented by technology choices [3]. - Neutral countries like those in ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council provide a buffer space for both China and the U.S., allowing different technologies to coexist without being labeled as either Chinese or American [4].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落，影响黄金的短期节奏，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变， | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，铜承压回落，关注下方整数关口支撑，空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000，78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 | | | | 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing uncertainty in the second half of the year due to fluctuating tariffs and geopolitical risks, but emphasizes the importance of its collaboration with Intel on the 12nm project as a strategic necessity [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Outlook - The company’s CFO noted that visibility for the second half of the year is limited, with clients adopting a wait-and-see approach and reducing inventory levels [1]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) is expected to significantly impact the company's performance, with a 1% increase in NTD eroding approximately 0.4% of the gross margin [1]. - The average exchange rate has shifted from around 32.5-33 NTD per USD to approximately 30 NTD per USD, which poses challenges for revenue [1]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The collaboration with Intel is structured around a division of labor, with manufacturing taking place at Intel's facilities in the U.S. and a focus on joint research and development [2]. - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge by offering customized processes that competitors cannot provide, particularly as it transitions from 28nm to 22nm processes [2]. - The trend of "China for China, Non-China for Non-China" is becoming more pronounced, with an increasing proportion of local customers in the company's factories in China, indicating a rise in domestic demand [2].

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent macroeconomic concerns regarding U.S. debt and deficits have led to a temporary rebound in U.S. Treasury and dollar index, but the previous bullish sentiment in precious metals has not sustained, resulting in profit-taking [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, indicating improved economic outlook among consumers, despite a decline in durable goods orders [2] - The recent geopolitical stability has contributed to a short-term correction in precious metals, with expectations of gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by late 2025 or 2026 [3] Group 2: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility due to changes in trade relations between major economies, with a notable drop of nearly $60 in New York futures following shifts in U.S.-EU trade dynamics [4] - The current decline in gold prices marks the third correction since reaching above $3,500 on April 22, suggesting a weakening upward momentum that may indicate a significant market shift if the trend continues [4] - Analysts caution that the market's response to geopolitical narratives is swift, and the recent adjustments in precious metals may not be merely temporary [4]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据新华社消息，来自伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯 社27日报道，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃日前表示，伊朗在任何 情况下都不会放弃铀浓缩权利；据以色列媒体报道，以色列总 理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统特朗普就如何应对伊朗进行了激烈的 电话交谈；今天晚间将召开欧佩克+会议。评：前期OPEC+增产 落实情况小于预期，原油短期压力不大。中期看，当前进入 OPEC+7月政策窗口期，关注政策情况。短期短线参与。 【短评-黄金】美联储威廉姆斯，4月份关税事件显示市场 功能失调，保持通胀预期稳固至关重要。美国储备水平仍然明 显充裕，当遭受巨大冲击时，能通过储备金获得缓冲是非常好 的。评：市场预期美国6月份90%以上不会降息，美国政府宣称 美欧关税谈判取得重大进展，美元指数反弹，黄金承压。黄金 中期依然高位震荡对待，关注美国关税政策及地缘情况。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月28日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F30 ...

印度宣布超过日本成为世界第四大经济体，印度官员表示，两年半到三年后，印度将超过德国成为第三 大经济体。 目前在国际大媒体中只看到CNBC报道了此事，CNBC说IMF的确预测印度有望在2025年以微弱优势超 越日本，但根据目前的估算，印度仍略微落后。CNBC认为，印度的宣布有点着急。 不过印度不久将成为世界第三大经济体，这点没有悬念，中国之前的快速崛起为印度提供了这一想象 力。那么印度经济的质量如何，中国仍将是一把尺子。印度2025年人均GDP预计达到2880美元，这个数 字大约相当于中国2007年、2008年的水平。 不过，今天印度的实际经济水平应当说不及中国的2008年。2008年中国主办了北京奥运会，那是历史上 最成功的奥运会之一。早在2001年，中国就申奥成功。举办奥运会是一个国家至少部分地区经济达到或 接近发达水平的标志。1964年东京奥运会是日本经济实现战后恢复的典礼，1988年汉城奥运会是韩国成 为"亚洲小龙"的徽标。因为北京举办奥运会，2008年被西方媒体称为"中国元年"。 世界在变，人口大国的经济优势逐渐显现出来。印度认为目前的国际地缘政治形势非常有利于它的发 展，这也是实情。苹果等跨国公司将 ...

2025 年 5 月 27 日 银河能化-20250527 早报 【交易策略】 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-27） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：NYMEX 原油期货因美国阵亡将士纪念日假期休市一天，无结算价； Brent2507 合约 64.74 跌 0.04 美元/桶，环比-0.06%。中国 INE 原油期货主力合约 2507 涨 1.7 至 456.4 元/桶，夜盘跌 0.5 至 455.9 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.61 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 截止 5 月 20 日当周，交易商在纽约商品交易所和伦敦洲际交易所美国轻质原油和布伦特 原油期货和期权持有的净多头总计 244665 手，比前一周减少 631 手；相当于减少 63.1 万 桶原油。 美国总统特朗普表示，俄罗斯总统普京对乌克兰发动了战争开始以来最大规模空袭，已经 "完全疯了"，并表示他正在考虑对莫斯科实施新的制裁。克里姆林宫表示可能是情绪过载 导致如此言论。特朗普也抨击了乌克兰总统泽连斯基，称他"说的每一句话都在制造问 题"。 一位巴勒斯坦官员表示，哈马斯已同意美国中东问题特使威特科夫提出的加沙停火建议， 但一位以色列官员 ...