Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The "old-for-new" policy in the gold and jewelry sector is expected to drive a transformation towards "self-indulgent" jewelry consumption. This policy will lower costs for consumers and stimulate demand, particularly among women aged 30-50 for fashionable gold jewelry [2][4] - The domestic tourism market during the Dragon Boat Festival showed a slight increase in travel volume and spending, indicating a recovery trend. However, the overall tourism consumption data was relatively flat, with future policies expected to boost demand [4][15] - The report highlights the performance of various consumer sectors, with notable stock price increases in food and beverage, home appliances, and textile sectors, while some companies experienced declines [4][13][14] Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector showed mixed performance post-Dragon Boat Festival, with social services and textile sectors leading in growth [4] - Specific stocks such as Junyao Health and Springlight Technology saw significant increases of 24.43% and 28.79% respectively, while companies like Kuaijishan and Midea Group faced declines [4][13][14] Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report mentions a significant increase in summer travel demand, with a 70% rise in travelers compared to last year, indicating a strong recovery in the tourism sector [15][16] - Companies like Suning and Anta Sports reported substantial sales growth during the holiday period, driven by consumer enthusiasm for new products and promotional activities [15][16] - The report also notes various corporate announcements, including acquisitions and stock sales, which may impact market dynamics [16][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the "trade-in" program for consumer goods is accelerating, particularly in the categories of home appliances and automobiles, while electric bicycles remain stable [1][2][3] - In May, the average daily trade-in volume for automobiles was approximately 38,000 units, a slight decrease from April's 39,000 units, while projections for September to December 2024 suggest an increase to 47,000 units per day [2][10] - Home appliances saw an increase in trade-in activity, with May's average daily volume reaching about 829,000 units, up from 630,000 units in April [2][10] - The trade-in volume for electric bicycles remained relatively stable, with May's average daily volume at approximately 62,000 units, compared to 65,000 units in April [2][11] Group 2 - The overall trade-in activity for the three consumer goods categories (automobiles, home appliances, and electric bicycles) showed an increase in May, with a weighted average daily trade-in volume rising from 92,000 units in April to 109,000 units in May [3][12] - The trade-in program is projected to drive significant sales, with the Ministry of Commerce estimating that the program will generate over 1.3 trillion yuan in product sales in 2024, and approximately 1.1 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025 [4][5] - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with infrastructure projects and durable goods consumption being the main drivers of economic activity, while industrial production and external demand remain weak [15][16][22] Group 3 - The trade-in program's impact on consumer spending is significant, as evidenced by the strong sales figures driven by the program [4][5] - The weekly economic observations indicate a slight decline in the macroeconomic activity index, but it remains above 5%, suggesting ongoing economic recovery [15][16] - The trade-in program is part of a broader strategy to stimulate consumption and support economic growth, particularly in the context of fluctuating external trade dynamics [28][29]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Group 1 - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 to 13 and hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [2] - The Ministry of Commerce of China will continue to strengthen compliance application approval for the export of rare earths, considering the growing demand in civil sectors [3] - The US media reports that former President Trump is considering retaliation against Elon Musk, indicating a significant rift between them [4] Group 2 - Trump has declared a tactical alert in Los Angeles, citing illegal immigration and crime as major issues, and has instructed officials to take necessary actions [5] - The US State Department has ordered the resumption of visa processing for students planning to attend Harvard University, reversing a previous ban [7] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons) as of the end of May [8][9] Group 3 - Multiple economic stabilization policies are expected to be introduced soon, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade [10] - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, has become the new richest person in Henan with a net worth of approximately 146 billion yuan, driven by the popularity of the Labubu brand [15] - The Atour Group has issued a statement regarding the "pillowcase incident," clarifying it was due to sorting errors and not related to mixed laundry with hospitals [16] Group 4 - Companies are actively entering the beauty and personal care market, indicating a trend of innovation driving industry upgrades [17] - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,385.36 points, up 0.04% [18] - Analysts suggest that the expansion of domestic demand will be a key focus of future policies, with recommendations to invest in resilient sectors such as home goods and food processing [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the role of banks in supporting the implementation of the 2025 policy for large-scale equipment updates and the trade-in of consumer goods, emphasizing the importance of innovative consumer credit products and enhanced service delivery to facilitate consumer upgrades and improve living standards [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Credit Innovations - Banks can innovate consumer credit products specifically for trade-in businesses, such as long-term, low-interest auto loans to ease the financial burden on consumers upgrading their vehicles [1]. - For home appliances and digital products, banks can develop short-term, small-amount consumer credit products to enable quick funding for new purchases, accelerating the replacement cycle of household goods [1]. Group 2: Service Optimization - Banks have significant potential to optimize service processes by leveraging financial technology, utilizing big data analysis and AI risk control to quickly assess consumer credit status and reduce loan approval times to mere hours [1]. - Online and offline service channels should be enhanced, with mobile banking apps and dedicated in-branch services for trade-in financing, providing consumers with comprehensive support for loan applications and management [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Resource Recovery - Banks need to strengthen risk management by rigorously assessing the creditworthiness of loan applicants using multi-dimensional credit evaluation models, considering income levels, credit history, and debt situations [2]. - Active participation in resource recovery system construction is essential, with banks providing financing support to recycling companies to improve resource recovery efficiency and promote a circular economy [2].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce reported that as of May 31, 2023, the five major categories of consumer goods under the old-for-new policy generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [1] Group 1: Innovative Financial Products and Services - The banking sector is actively innovating financial products and services to tap into the potential of the old-for-new market, including specialized financial solutions for consumers [2] - Banks are offering credit card installment services for old-for-new purchases, providing benefits such as interest-free installments and fee waivers [2] - Financial technology is being leveraged to enhance service convenience, allowing consumers to easily apply for loans and installment services through mobile banking [2] Group 2: Strengthening Government-Bank-Enterprise Cooperation - Banks are collaborating with government departments to support the old-for-new initiative, ensuring timely distribution of subsidy funds to consumers [4] - Financial institutions are providing credit support and financial services to businesses involved in the old-for-new program, helping them reduce financing costs [4] - A service platform is being developed by banks in partnership with enterprises to streamline information sharing and improve the efficiency of the old-for-new process [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The banking industry aims to explore more models and measures to support the old-for-new initiative, contributing to consumption upgrades and economic growth [6]

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds accelerated in May, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan issued, bringing the net financing scale to 6.4 trillion yuan by the end of May, achieving a progress rate of 46.1% [5] - The cumulative issuance progress for various types of bonds includes: general government bonds at 39.4%, special government bonds at 42.1%, new special bonds at 37.1%, special refinancing bonds at 81.5%, and new general bonds at 43.9% [5] Group 2 - The consumption of old-for-new products accelerated in May, driven by pre-promotional policies for the 618 shopping festival, with total sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories [7] - The estimated usage of funds for the "old-for-new" program by the end of May is between 143.9 billion to 163.2 billion yuan, nearing the allocated scale for the program [7] Group 3 - China's export rebound in May may be temporary, as mid-May port import data showed a recovery linked to increased export container bookings due to improved China-US trade relations, but the sustainability of this rebound is limited [10] - Container ship departures from China to the US decreased by 22.6% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year in May, indicating potential challenges ahead [10] Group 4 - South Korea experienced a negative export growth of 1.3% in May, marking the first decline in four months, with decreases noted across exports to ASEAN, the US, China, and Japan [12] - Despite the overall decline, the Bank of Korea reported a slight increase of 1% in daily average exports when accounting for working days in May, suggesting some resilience in the export sector [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 70% week-on-week and 78% year-on-year in June [4][5][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for increased policy support to stabilize the market, with expectations for measures such as mortgage rate cuts and enhanced housing supply [4][32]. - The issuance of special bonds for the acquisition of existing homes in Zhejiang Province is noted as a key policy development [4][32]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 838,000 square meters last week, reflecting a 70.3% decrease compared to the previous week [5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in June are down 78%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 77% decline [8][9]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities decreased by 29.1% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 20% in June [13]. - Cumulative sales for the year show a 12.1% increase compared to the previous year [13]. New Home Inventory - In 15 key cities, 500,000 square meters of new homes were launched last week, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 1.69 [23]. - The total available residential area in these cities is 88.94 million square meters, showing a 0.4% decrease week-on-week [23]. Policy and News Tracking Real Estate Sector - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes that building "good houses" does not equate to building "large" or "expensive" houses [32]. - The issuance of special bonds in Zhejiang for the acquisition of existing homes is highlighted, with a total issuance of 55.3 billion yuan [32][34]. Property Management Sector - Beijing has launched a three-year action plan to enhance property management services, focusing on improving service quality and meeting resident needs [38].

"真金白银"的优惠带火了消费人气。2025年，仪陇县家电以旧换新商品的品类由2024年的8类增加到18类，目前已带动消费超7000万元。 央视网消息：2025年以来，消费品以旧换新政策持续加力，带动商品消费明显提升。在四川，随着以旧换新消费补贴政策的实施，不少地 方的消费市场呈现出新活力。 在四川仪陇县一家家电销售店内，消费者邓芙容正在选购空调。得益于以旧换新政策和厂家补贴等其他优惠政策，邓女士购买的这台一级能耗 的空调便宜了不少。 在天水市秦州区藉口镇的一家电器店内，销售人员给村民们介绍家电的性能和以旧换新的补贴政策，实惠的价格让不少村民们动心了。 2025年前5个月，渠县实体门店家电和手机等电子产品共销售超1万台，累计消费超4000万元，市民享受各类补贴超500万元。 以旧换新进乡村 叠加优惠促消费 2025年以来，消费品以旧换新政策持续加力，不少地方也陆续将这一优惠政策推向农村。在甘肃天水市的农村地区，那里迎来了以旧换新的消 费热潮，商家们还追加额外补贴，吸引消费者选购心仪的产品。 而在四川渠县，凡购买电视机、电冰箱、空调等绿色智能新家电的消费者，除了按实际成交价格的10%给予一次性补贴外，商家还另外为 ...

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" consumption subsidy policy has revitalized the consumer market in Sichuan, with significant increases in product categories and consumer spending [1] - In Yilong County, the number of product categories for "old-for-new" has increased from 8 to 18, leading to over 70 million yuan in consumer spending [1] - In Quxian County, consumers receive a 10% subsidy on the actual purchase price of new green smart home appliances, along with an additional 10% from merchants, boosting consumer enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - In the first five months of this year, Quxian's physical stores sold over 10,000 electronic products, generating over 40 million yuan in consumption and 5 million yuan in subsidies for citizens [3] - Jiangxi's Xiangfeng County has implemented a comprehensive "old-for-new" subsidy policy for home appliances and electric bicycles, promoting rural consumption upgrades [4] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a surge in consumer interest in rural areas, with various promotional strategies being employed by local stores [4] Group 3 - Local governments are enhancing the promotion of the "old-for-new" policy to ensure effective implementation, with many businesses participating to provide convenient and affordable options for rural consumers [6] - In Shandong, multiple regions are actively promoting the "old-for-new" policy in rural areas, with a focus on building charging infrastructure for electric vehicles [7] - Shandong Heze has set up convenient service stations to optimize consumer experience and streamline the "old-for-new" process [8] Group 4 - Tai'an City has introduced a "cloud-based" model for the "old-for-new" program, allowing consumers to order appliances online and receive home delivery and installation services [9] - The local government collaborates with businesses to simplify subsidy processes and enhance service delivery to rural households [9]