Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, affected by the significant breakthrough in China-US tariff negotiations, the container shipping European route opened higher in the morning. The market expected significant tariff benefits after the closing, and almost all contracts hit the daily limit. On Tuesday, the market sentiment subsided, and concerns about tariff reversals and the strength of the linkage between the European and US routes emerged [9]. - The current spot freight rate has fallen below the long - term contract price and is approaching the cost line, with limited downward space. The 1350$/FEU is an important observation point to see if airlines will "reduce ships" for reporting purposes. The European route freight is in a state of oversupply, with general cargo volume and relatively large supply [9]. - The view that demand is postponed after the tariff suspension has been largely disproven. The 08 peak - season contract will benefit the most, and there may be a rush to export during the peak season in the next 90 days, with some overseas importers starting to replenish inventory for year - end holidays [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The present value is 1345, with a 0.32% increase from the previous value of 1341 [5]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The present value is 1106, a 1.31% decrease from the previous value of 1121 [5]. - **SCFI Sub - routes**: SCFI - US West increased by 3.30% to 2347; SCFIS - US West rose by 10.19% to 1455; SCFI - US East increased by 1.58% to 3335; SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.25% to 1161; SCFIS - Northwest Europe dropped by 5.54% to 1303; SCFI - Mediterranean remained unchanged at 2089 [5]. 3.2 EC Contracts - **Contract Prices**: EC2506 increased by 3.55% to 1787.3; EC2508 rose by 7.92% to 2359.3; EC2510 decreased by 5.01% to 1464.7; EC2512 dropped by 5.78% to 1611.2; EC2602 decreased by 4.56% to 1449.0; EC2604 decreased by 3.11% to 1273.2 [5]. - **Contract Positions**: EC2506's position increased by 61 to 38562; EC2508's position increased by 2731 to 48514; EC2410's position increased by 578 to 24456; EC2412's position increased by 110 to 5104; EC2602's position decreased by 29 to 3294; EC2604's position increased by 353 to 3455 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 spread increased by 250.5 to 894.6; the 12 - 2 spread increased by 21.5 to - 146.5; the 12 - 4 spread decreased by 57.9 to 338.0 [5]. 3.3 Tariff Adjustments - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [5]. - The US will suspend the 24% tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macao) for the initial 90 days and retain the remaining 10% tariff, and cancel the additional tariffs imposed by certain executive orders [6]. - The US will reduce the tariff on small parcels from 120% to 54%, maintain a 100 - dollar per - item specific tariff, and cancel the planned increase to 200 dollars [6]. 3.4 Market Strategies - Long positions and arbitrage can be gradually closed for profit [10]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 螺纹钢市场周报 中美关税互降，螺纹钢期价冲高回调 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 1. 价格及价差：截至5月16日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3082（+60），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3240（+90）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量小幅上调。226.53（+3）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：市场信心回暖，表观需求增加。本期表需260.29（+46.39），（同比-30.02）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库与社库双降，总库存下滑。螺纹钢总库存619.87（-33.76），（同比-206.66）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周增加0.44个百分点，同比去年增加7.36个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，美国调整对华加征关税，于美东时间5月14日 ...

智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 5月14日12时1分（美东时间5月14日0时1分）起，中美相互调整后的关税正式实施，中美各取消91%的 关税、暂停实施24%的"对等关税"90天，保留剩余10%的关税。 值得注意的是，今年2月，中国已对美LNG加征15%关税，对原油加征10%关税。 因此，此次中美关税政策调整后，中国对于进口美国LNG的关税仍为25%，进口美国原油的关税为 20%。 在此背景下，中国自3月以来已停止进口美国产LNG。 海关总署数据显示，今年2月中国自美国进口LNG为6.57万吨，环比1月的19.42万吨减少66%，同比去年 的6.95万吨持平。今年3月，中国自美国进口LNG为0，去年同期为41.25万吨。 据欧洲调查公司Kpler的船舶追踪数据显示，截至5月中旬，中国对美国产LNG的进口量仍然为零。 短期内，美国LNG将难返中国市场。 卓创资讯天然气分析师冯海城对智通财经表示，由于目前欧洲的补库及其他替代性需求比较旺盛，且价 格也高，资源去往欧洲的经济性会更强。 因此，预计短期内美国LNG不会来到国内，待国内需求逐渐改善如在旺季开启前，或有部分美国LNG 得到恢复，但届时也要看降低关税政策的延续性问题 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the latest adjustments in China-US tariff policies, many foreign trade companies in regions like Shanghai and Jiangxi have resumed supplying the US market, leading to a surge in orders and shipping demands [1][6]. Group 1: Order and Production Surge - A foreign trade company in Yangzhou received five emails from US clients, resulting in over 5 million yuan in new orders, with clients eager to expedite delivery times [1]. - In Jiangxi, a textile company is working overtime to fulfill a new order of 100,000 sets of children's clothing, with orders scheduled through September [3]. - A knitting factory in Shanghai is preparing to ship products as US clients have resumed orders, with plans to start shipping by May 17 if inspections are passed [4]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Recovery - Companies have not only expanded into European and domestic markets but are also quickly restoring exports to the US, with expectations of surpassing 100 million yuan in US orders this year [6]. - A helmet manufacturing company in Ganzhou received a request to resume supplying over 500,000 helmets to US clients, indicating a strong recovery in demand [6]. - Merchants in Yiwu are experiencing rapid order placements from US clients, although some previously delayed shipments have already been sold to other markets due to tariff issues [8][9]. Group 3: Logistics and Shipping Challenges - The logistics sector is witnessing a surge in orders due to the increased shipping demands from foreign trade companies, leading to a peak in exports to the US [11]. - According to trade tracking agency Vizion, container booking volumes from China to the US surged nearly 300% following the tariff reductions, with average bookings rising from 5,709 to 21,530 standard containers within a week [13]. - Shenzhen Yantian Port is handling over a quarter of the national export volume to the US, with shipping processes accelerating as clients aim to stockpile goods during the 90-day window [14].

【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落,布伦特07合约跌1.87%。哈梅内伊及特朗普关于美伊接近达成核协议的表态令 市场对伊朗石油制裁解除、供应风险弱化增加预期,但伊朗高级官员关于尚未收到关于解决核争端 未决分歧的美国最新提议又令这一预期有所修复,油价部分收复跌幅。考虑到OPEC+已进入快速增 产周期,美伊核谈判、俄乌和谈总体处于她缘缓和趋势,相关供应制裁风险趋于弱化,关税降级带 动的油价反弹空间不过分乐观,油价阶段性修复完成后将再度承压。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属先抑后扬波动剧烈。美国公布零售销售月率0.1%略超预期但低于前值,周度初请失业金 人数22.9万人基本持平预期和前值,PP1录得2.4%与CP1超同表现大幅降温。美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 称正在调整其总体政策制定框架,引起市场对于未来走向宽松的猜想。近期市场降低对于美国经济 滚退的抑注,降息路径仍将博弈,国际金价处于调整中,3000美元/盎司位置具备较强支撑,维持 回调买入思路。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收回亚洲盘跌幅,沪铜加权反弹回近7.8万。美国森信销售、PPI数据皆弱于预期，海外投 行对铜持谨慎态度。2505最 ...

5 月 15 日，深圳盐田港 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 黄敏璇 胡梦然 深圳摄影报道 5月14日，中美互降关税纷纷落地。北京时间5月14日12时01分起，中国调整对美商品税率，由34%调整为10%， 并在90天内暂停实施24%的关税；美东时间5月14日凌晨00:01起，美国也调整对华商品税率，24%的关税暂停加征 90天，保留剩余10%关税。 90天暂停期，一个让外贸从业者喜出望外的黄金窗口期正式开启，随之而来的是中美货运市场的强势反弹。 关税落地的24小时内，《华夏时报》记者多方采访了解到，5月美线运费涨幅最高已达2200美元/大柜，6月预计还 将大幅上涨；跨境卖家纷纷赶着发货，有货代从业者表示仓库已经爆满，正在加快报关出货；深圳盐田港进出港 货车也开始有所增加，货柜车司机临时接单跑不停。 壹航运创始人钟哲超接受本报记者采访时表示："美线运价预计短期内受需求影响还将持续上涨。而货量方面，由 于企业出口还需经过报关、拖车、装运等流程，预计未来一周港口码头会开始出现第一波美线发货高峰期。" 工厂抢发货，旺季提前到 5月15日上午10点，距离中美互降关税落地不到24个小时，货柜车 ...

Group 1: Cross-Border E-commerce Logistics - The turnover warehouse primarily targets direct small packages for cross-border e-commerce, ensuring delivery within 8 to 12 days, but currently faces challenges due to tight air freight capacity [1] - The daily processing capacity of a logistics company in Shenzhen is 50 tons, with a continuous increase in order volume [3] - The shipping volume for routes to the U.S. has increased by 30% to 40%, leading to higher air freight prices due to tight capacity [5] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Adjustments - Following the adjustment of U.S. tariffs, the cargo volume at Hubei Ezhou Huahu International Airport is steadily recovering, with a significant increase in flights to the U.S. [13][16] - The number of flights planned to the U.S. has doubled to 40, with cargo volume expected to reach around 2,400 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to the previous week [16] Group 3: Toy Industry Dynamics - The toy industry in Shantou is experiencing a surge in customer inquiries and orders, with companies ramping up production to meet demand [17] - Companies are diversifying their product offerings to cater to different market needs, with tight order schedules extending into 2025 [18] - The integration of cross-border e-commerce with traditional foreign trade is helping local manufacturers expand into global markets [19]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面不佳，焦煤弱势震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 原料供应宽松，焦炭震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：5 月 15 日夜盘，焦煤主力再次走弱，均线维持 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月16日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围较昨天转淡，现货基差回落。个别聚酯工厂补货，5月主港在09升水 200~215附近成交，个别略低，价格商谈区间在4980~5080附近。6月货在09+165~180附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+205。 中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：短期内聚酯库存向下转移，聚酯库存压力缓解下，负荷维持，PTA供需去库周期中流通性相对偏紧，加上近期由于 关税调整，终端订单环比改善，市场心态提振，短期内基差偏强。关注加工差好转预期下后期装置的检修兑现情况，以及终 端订 ...

Group 1 - The booking volume for container transport from China to the US surged nearly 300% after the mutual tariff reductions between the US and China, with an average of 21,530 standard containers booked in the week ending May 14, up from 5,709 containers in the week ending May 5 [1] - Rebar production in China increased to 2.2653 million tons, a rise of 30,000 tons or 1.34% from the previous week, while apparent demand rose by 460,000 tons or 21.69% to 2.6029 million tons [1] - Brazil's Mato Grosso state achieved a record soybean yield of 66.3 bags per hectare for the 2024/2025 season, exceeding recent averages by 14 bags [1] Group 2 - The expected biodiesel blending obligation in the US is projected to be between 4.6 to 4.8 billion gallons, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 5.5 to 5.75 billion gallons [2] - Brazil's soybean exports are forecasted to reach 3.9898 million tons for the week of May 11 to May 17, up from 3.1062 million tons the previous week [2] - Approximately 17% of US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, an increase from 15% the previous week, while 22% of corn planting areas are affected, up from 20% [2] Group 3 - The float glass industry in China is experiencing a supply contraction, with an average operating rate of 75%, down 0.24% week-on-week, and production falling to 1.0917 million tons, the lowest in two and a half months [3] - The total production capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in China is 10.9222 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 8.412 million tons per year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 2.66 percentage points to 77.02% [3]