Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2580 [3]. - The reduction in reciprocal tariff rates between China and the US within 90 days is beneficial for the export of non - aluminum end - products such as clothing, and there is still support from overseas markets like Indonesia [3]. - The decrease in alumina production capacity utilization and limited profit restoration make it difficult to increase the demand for caustic soda, and the replenishment rhythm of non - aluminum enterprises is expected to slow down [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2500 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the futures holding volume is 206,761 lots, up 2110 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 9486 lots, down 16,149 lots; the trading volume is 564,466 lots, down 141,950 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2487 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 2353 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2594 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of caustic soda is 94 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 225 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The price of steam coal is 676 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 2875 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the China - US economic and trade talks in Geneva was released, and the reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days, with the final US tariff rate on China at 30% [3]. - From May 2 to 8, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2% [3]. - As of May 8, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 388,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.72% [3]. 3.7 Inventory and Demand - Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.6% to 388,400 tons, at a neutral to high level in the same period [3]. - The production capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased to a low level, and the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.29% to 79.71% week - on - week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.63% to 60.68% week - on - week [3].

Group 1: Company Financials and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to repurchase shares with a total amount ranging from 80 million to 160 million CNY, which would represent 5.64% of total assets, 8.14% of net assets, and 8.77% of current assets as of December 31, 2024 [3][4]. - The company has distributed a total of 673.6 million CNY in dividends and has conducted a 10-for-4 stock bonus, raising concerns about the impact on financial operations under full production [6][8]. Group 2: Market and Production Insights - The company is closely monitoring the impact of the U.S. tariffs, which have been reduced from 145% to 30%, and is prepared to adjust strategies accordingly to ensure stable business operations [3][10]. - The company is investing 28 million USD in its second factory in Vietnam, with production capacity still under planning [5]. Group 3: Research and Development - In 2024, the company invested 92.36 million CNY in R&D, marking a year-on-year increase of 37.85%, focusing on new products and processes [8]. Group 4: International Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its strategic collaboration with key customers and is expanding its market presence to mitigate potential trade risks, including establishing a production base in Vietnam to diversify supply chains [10].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7187 | 97 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7125 | 99 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7337 | 55 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7187 | 97 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 455073 | -16576 持仓量(日,手) | 536999 | -3834 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | -212 | 44 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 386942 | 2009 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 433701 | -9807 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -46759 | 11816 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7315.22 | 45.65 LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日,元/吨) | 737 ...

5月12日，商务部发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称《声明》），富达国际、摩根资产 管理对本次声明进行解读。 上述《声明》结果显示：美国降低自4月2日以来对中国加征的至高125%关税，仅保留加征10%的关 税，其余24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施；作为回应，中国降低自4月4日以来对美加征的至高 125%关税，也仅保留加征10%的关税，其余24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施。 摩根资管：中美经贸会谈联合声明超预期 风险释放下市场反应积极 摩根资管对本次联合声明的重点及影响进行了解读：第一，此次声明有效为中美前期贸易争端降温，双 方均作出一定让步，降低并暂停此前部分关税，一则为后续协商创造友好空间，二则也结束了前期中美 贸易因畸高关税而暂停的局面，有助于双方经贸的有序恢复；第二，双方同意建立常态化对话机制，有 助于及时沟通、化解分歧，并避免不必要的摩擦，强化未来协商的稳定性；第三，中美两大经济体贸易 对话立下良好开局，有助于缓解对全球供应链中断及经济衰退的担忧。 摩根资管认为，此次关税下调的幅度超出预期，反映出中美双方都认识到关税战将打击全球增长的经济 现实，对话及协商是化解风险的更好选择。《声明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade agreement has exceeded expectations, leading to a significant reduction in tariffs and a positive impact on global markets, with both US and Chinese currencies strengthening and a notable decline in risk aversion indicators [2][5]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US and China have agreed to significantly lower tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs by 91% and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [5][6]. - The effective tariff rate (ETR) for the US has decreased from 22.8% to 13.1%, marking the lowest level since 1941 [5][6]. - The reduction in tariffs is expected to restore normal trade activities between the two countries, with a target tariff rate of 30% deemed feasible for both exporters and consumers [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, US stock markets experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 2.81% and the S&P 500 increasing by 3.26% [2][3]. - European markets also saw positive movements, with the STOXX 600 index rising by 1.2% and notable gains in logistics and shipping companies [3]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, fell by 15.98% to 18.40, indicating reduced market fear [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Treasury reported a budget surplus of $258.4 billion for April, with customs duties reaching a record high of $16.3 billion, a 130% increase year-on-year [7]. - The total customs revenue for the fiscal year 2025 has reached $63.3 billion, reflecting an 18% increase compared to the previous year [7].

Group 1 - The significant reduction in bilateral tariffs aligns with the expectations of producers and consumers in both countries, as well as the interests of the global community [7] - On May 12, the U.S. announced the cancellation of 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in April, and modified the 34% "reciprocal tariffs," with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days [1][2] - Following the tariff reduction, there was a surge in booking and consultation volume for shipping, with some companies reporting a 3-4 times increase in activity [1] Group 2 - The urgent need for "inventory clearance" was highlighted, as many exporters rushed to ship goods that had been delayed due to high tariffs [2] - Companies like Shuangma Plastics reported a resumption of orders from U.S. clients, with approximately 30% of their exports directed to the U.S., of which over 20% had been hindered by high tariffs [2] - The demand for shipping to the U.S. is expected to remain high due to the traditional peak season from June to September, compounded by the backlog of goods from April [4] Group 3 - The supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by international shipping companies reducing capacity on U.S. routes to maintain freight rates, leading to a 50% reduction in market capacity for U.S. shipments [4][5] - The Shanghai Export Container Transport Market Index showed a slight increase in freight rates, with rates to the U.S. West and East coasts rising to $2,347 and $3,335 per FEU, respectively [4] Group 4 - The demand for overseas warehouses has been growing steadily, with stable inventory levels for small items even during high tariffs, indicating resilience in the market [6] - The expectation is that long-term tariff levels will remain reasonable, prompting companies to diversify markets and enhance brand value [7]

据金融界报道，近日，对于即将到来的中美经济高层会谈，外交部副部长华春莹做出表示。华春莹明确 表示，中方完全有信心也有能力处理来自于美国的贸易问题，美国国内民众也受到了关税问题的严重影 响，美国的贸易政策不得民心，是走不远的。同时，华春莹还强调，中方不希望与任何国家打贸易战。 中方有勇气直面这次的会谈，坚持到最后，克服一切贸易困难。 美国民众和和部分商人十分依赖中国进口产品，关税提高使得这些产品价格提高，民众对政府的支持率 不断下滑，商人也多次联合起来要求白宫方面降低关税。与此同时，对于美国随意提高关税的霸权行 为，欧盟向世界贸易组织提出诉讼，并计划对美国进口产品进行经济反制措施。美方的行为破坏了美国 和欧盟之间的贸易关系，欧盟对美国的产品进行反制，迫使美国调整关税使其恢复正常。 中国加入世贸组织，经济开始调整，复苏，发展，崛起，美国开始害怕，害怕作为第二大经济体的中国 再发展下去会超越自己。美国以维护自身发展利益为借口，提高了关税，极力打压中国的产品，打贸易 战，企图以此来遏制住中国的经济发展。但事实证明，美方的行为并没有起到很好的效果，反而引起了 美国国内多方不满，甚至是欧盟的反对。 贸易港口（资料图） 特 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that while the external environment is favorable for bond futures, caution is advised due to the relatively low bond yields and the potential impact of tariffs. For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended. In the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of gold is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised. For commodities, different strategies are proposed based on the supply - demand, valuation, and technical analysis of each product [6][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bond futures closed significantly lower. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.31%, 0.46%, 0.2%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but the current bond yields are relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and the Sino - US trade agreement has made progress. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 1.23%, 0.77%, 1.48%, and 1.56% respectively [8][9]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks are a positive sign, but the structural contradictions and deep - seated differences between the two countries still exist. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 772.28 with a decline of 2.05%, and the main silver contract closed at 8,232 with an increase of 0.78% [12]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, the increased risk of global economic recession due to tariff disturbances, and the potential passive easing of monetary policies around the world are expected to drive up the price of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised [12][13]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil are 2,940 yuan/ton, 3,040 - 3,170 yuan/ton, and 3,230 - 3,250 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder are 760 yuan/ton and 626 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore has decreased but is still the highest among black - series products. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the previous low is broken [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. The demand for coke from some steel mills has decreased, and the second - round price increase is difficult to implement. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have reached new lows, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered [19]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract rose 1.80% to 5,866 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 1.55% to 5,636 yuan/ton [21]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The inventory of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron is high. For manganese - silicon, call option opportunities at low levels can be considered; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [23]. Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the cooling of Sino - US tariff tensions [24]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: OPEC+ will increase production in May - June, and the market is worried about oversupply. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil, but $65 per barrel of Brent crude is an important resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose significantly. Singapore's land - based fuel oil inventory has dropped to a seven - week low [27]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the reduction of tariff friction and the decrease in inventory are positive. A long - biased operation for the main fuel oil contract is recommended [27][28]. Rubber (including Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber) - **Synthetic Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose 3.28%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was raised to 11,750 yuan/ton [29]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply pressure continues, but the demand is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost has rebounded. It is short - term bullish, but the upward space is limited [29][30][31]. - **Natural Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main natural rubber contract rose 2.18%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 2.40%. The Shanghai spot price was raised to 14,900 yuan/ton [32]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the overall situation, it may show a weak - side fluctuation [32][33]. Chemical Products (including PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Lithium Carbonate) - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.27%, and the spot price remained stable [34]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [34][35][37]. - **Urea** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 0.26%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was raised to 1,970 yuan/ton [38]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent agricultural demand will start. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [38][39]. - **PX** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 3.23%, and the PXN spread rose to $210/ton [40]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term crude oil price is expected to rebound, and PX is expected to follow the cost - side rebound. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [40][41]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 3.11% [42]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the cost is expected to turn better. The price may have upward repair space. Buying in the low - range is recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 1.97% [43]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is less than expected, the supply increase is not obvious, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is expected to rise. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policies [43][44]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose 2.71% [45]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost - side. Short - term long positions on dips are recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [45]. - **Bottle Chip** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose 2.12% [46]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The raw material price has strengthened, and the supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have improved. The price is expected to rebound following the cost - side. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices [46]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [47]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the prices of raw materials are falling. The inventory has increased slightly. In May, there will be concentrated device maintenance, which may cause short - term market adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [49]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The production line is at a low level, and the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The tariff adjustment may affect downstream products, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [49][50]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,545 yuan/ton, up 2.58% [51]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for caustic soda from alumina and non - aluminum downstream industries is limited. Some plants will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have a certain driving force. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise plants and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [52][53]. - **Pulp** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed at 5,256 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [54]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic and international supply of pulp is abundant, but the downstream consumption is weak. The market is in a weak pattern. Attention should be paid to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [55][56]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 64,040 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [57]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still in excess, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to run weakly [57]. Metals (including Copper, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon) - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, closing above the 60 - day moving average. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,260 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day line of Shanghai copper has been suppressing the price. The Sino - US talks have achieved important results, and the copper tariff may not be implemented. The copper price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for the main Shanghai copper contract [58][59]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose 1.33% to 264,570 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, but the current supply is tight. The downstream demand has phased support, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate weakly [61]. - **Nickel** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell 1.26% to 124,180 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost is supported. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is not high, and the demand may weaken in the off - season. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main industrial silicon contract closed at 8,320 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, and the main polysilicon contract closed at 38,450 yuan/ton, up 2.49% [63]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for the industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. The price is affected by delivery factors and production - cut news, and the fluctuation is intensified. It is still in the capacity - clearing cycle, and a bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [63][64]. Agricultural Products (including Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract fell 0.17% to 2,908 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose 0.03% to 7,814 yuan/ton [65]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. The upward pressure on the main soybean meal contract is large, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is enhanced, and call option opportunities at the bottom support range can be considered [65][66]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 1.9% year - on - year [67]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil** - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed contracts showed mixed results. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has increased, the inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has slightly decreased [70]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [71]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly, and the overnight external cotton market closed slightly higher [72]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US negotiation is favorable for cotton, but the USDA's supply - demand report is negative. The domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to the S

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Tariff cuts exceed expectations, demand expectations are revised upward, and macro - sentiment improvement is expected to repair valuations. The industry has strong supply and demand and continuous de - stocking. Pay attention to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices and the pressure in specific price ranges for different contracts [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract rebounded due to macro - level sentiment. Fundamentally, daily iron - water production remains high, and inventory pressure eases. The sustainability of high iron - water production depends on terminal demand for finished products, and the supply - demand pressure may increase in the future. It is expected to have short - term valuation repair but a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long - term [4]. Coke - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results. The second round of spot price increase is difficult to implement, and the market is bearish. Although the fundamentals have improved, factors such as weak coking coal, over - capacity, and lack of pricing power lead to a weak downward trend. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results, but the spot market is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - The futures main contract continued to rebound. Supply pressure has eased after previous production cuts, but inventory is still at a medium - to - high level. Demand is cautious, and cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound, but the trend - based market lacks momentum [7]. Ferromanganese - The main contract rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a basis for continuous rebound. Production is in a state of reduction, and demand is affected by factors such as iron - water production and finished - product inventory. Manganese ore prices are expected to stabilize. It is expected that the price will oscillate and bottom - build, and then rebound [7]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have increased. The basis and spreads also show certain changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have increased, while some costs and profits of steel products have decreased, such as the profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions [1]. Supply - The daily average iron - water production has a slight increase, while the production of five major steel products and rebar has decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils has a slight increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar has increased, while the inventory change shows a certain trend [1]. Demand - Building material trading volume has a slight increase, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils has decreased [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore varieties such as warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed significantly [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and global shipment volume have decreased, while monthly import volume has a slight decrease [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase, and monthly pig iron and crude - steel production have increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills have decreased [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke products in different regions and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The coking profit has increased [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills has a slight decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory and the inventory of different sectors, such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports, have decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke has a certain change [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The sample coal - mine profit has a slight decrease [6]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines is at a relatively high level, and the import volume of coking coal has changed due to various factors [6]. Demand - Downstream users purchase coking coal on - demand as the blast - furnace and coking - plant operations increase [6]. Inventory - The coal - mine inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, while the port inventory decreases, and the downstream inventory is at a low level [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferrosilicon futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the production profit has increased. The Lanzhou - charcoal price remains stable [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, and the production - enterprise start - up rate has increased [7]. Demand - The iron - water production remains high, but the downstream demand for procurement is cautious. The overseas demand has changes in quotation and inquiry [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises has decreased, and the average available days for downstream users have decreased [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferromanganese futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased slightly, and the production profit has increased. The prices of manganese ore from different sources remain stable [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly shipment volume of manganese ore has decreased, while the arrival volume and port - clearance volume have increased [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The port inventory of manganese ore has decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferromanganese has decreased, and the start - up rate has decreased [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese has a slight decrease, and the procurement volume of a large enterprise remains stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased, and the average available days have increased slightly [7].

Report Date - The report is dated May 13, 2025 [1][5] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to predict their price movements [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is affected by the progress of Sino-US trade. The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9] - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend intensity is -1 [2][5][9] Base Metals - **Copper**: The strong LME copper spot price supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13] - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade weakly in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][14][16] - **Alumina**: Likely to consolidate at a low level. The trend intensity is 0 [2][14][16] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to tariff disturbances. The trend intensity is -1 [2][17][18] - **Lead**: With weak supply and demand, the price will adjust within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][20][21] - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a narrow range. The trend intensity is -1 [2][23][26] - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, but the fundamentals change little. The trend intensity is 0 [2][27][32] - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory increases marginally, and the cost expectation supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][27][32] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Although the tariff situation eases, the export profit remains in the red. The trend intensity is 0 [2][33][35] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is expected to open high and close low. The trend intensity is -1 [2][36][39] - **Polysilicon**: The news of production cuts drives the price higher. The trend intensity is 1 [2][37][39] - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely due to changing expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][40][42] - **Rebar**: The price rebounds from a low level boosted by macro sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][44][46] - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the price rebounds from a low level due to macro sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][44][46] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The main production areas announce maintenance plans, and the price is expected to be strong in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 1 [2][47][50] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The port quotes show a strong willingness to increase, and the price is expected to be strong in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 1 [2][47][50] - **Coke**: The sentiment recovers, and the price fluctuates widely. The trend intensity is 0 [2][52][56] - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the sentiment recovers, and the price fluctuates widely. The trend intensity is 0 [2][53][56] - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory increases, and the price is expected to be weak in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][57][59] - **Log**: The price fluctuates repeatedly boosted by macro expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][60][63] - **Para-Xylene**: The price is expected to be strong unilaterally [2][64] - **PTA**: The strategy is to go long on PX and short on PTA [2][64] - **MEG**: The strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG [2][64] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The pressure is released periodically, and there may be support at the bottom [2][4][64] - **Soybean Oil**: The tariff expectation eases, and the macro impact is evident [2][4][64] - **Soybean Meal**: The trade friction eases, and the US soybean price rises, so the Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][4][66] - **Soybean**: The price rebounds and fluctuates [2][4][66] - **Corn**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile range [2][4][68] - **Sugar**: The price will consolidate within a range [2][4][69] - **Cotton**: The optimistic market sentiment drives the cotton futures price to rebound [2][4][70] - **Egg**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile range [2][4][72] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the contradiction to be released [2][4][73] - **Peanut**: The spot price is strong [2][4][74]